Thursday Caps Clips: Bring on the Bolts

It was his job to lose coming into this season. Unfortunately, he can’t stay healthy.

I think most people agree with you, but it is hard for fans (and apparently BB as well) to sit Nuevy when he is playing very well.

I think the situation is different though than in ‘09. BB had clearly lost faith in Theo and didn’t want to put him back in. Obviously that is not the case with Varly now.

I’m not afraid to play Varlamov. But Neuvirth is your horse, and you do whatever is best for his continued success. If that means giving him a game off, do that. If it means playing him in back to back games, do that.

Neuvirth’s carried a heavy load before. He can handle it. I think whether to play him in both 3 and 4 is a decision best left for next week

Don’t get me wrong, I love Varly, too.

But you gotta think about the situation first. Sitting on the bench and watching the play is different than actually being in it. Neuvy has been in the action. He has a good sense of the pulse of the action. Varly hasn’t.

Based on the way things are going, I ride Neuvy right now until we’re in a situation that would call for a chance to rest Neuvy (or the other option which is he’s stinking it up, but I hope not!). If we’re up 3-0 and Game 4 is the 2nd of at B-to-B, then I would play Varly no problem. If he finishes it off, great. If not, then Neuvy’s got Game 5 at home 3 days later.

Of course, with the long rest they just had, this may not be a factor for Neuvy.

Not sure TB has that luxury. Too much dropoff in talent.

Even if Roloson plays both b2b’s it’s still advantage Caps

hard to fathom that with the offenses both teams bring…..but hey, its playoff hockey, right?

Hard to imagine this series being as tight defensively as the last one, but stranger things have happened.

I remember going to my brother’s graduation at Virginia Tech… six years ago now, which was originally scheduled for Lane Stadium and rained out… don’t really remember the rest of what happened, but I do remember that it was a pain. I think it’s just too much of a hassle to reschedule the whole ordeal in the event of spring weather (which is common enough around here to be a recurring issue).

Comcast center is the basketball arena.

Chelyabinsk is the site of a famous “Tractor” factory, which seems to have been manufacturing rather more tanks and othe munitions back in the day. Beating the plowshares back into swords, as it were.

theres a museum there and the traktor kids go on tiours from time to time.

what lovely blue eyes!

I’m not going to argue numbers with you. But you cannot deny that us getting Tampa Bay (at 4% likelihood) was the least likely outcome, and yet somehow – it happened. I don’t get how you get to that 4% anyway, and don’t try and explain it – I won’t be able to wrap my mathematically-challenged head around it. But I’d like to see a statistic that can explain to me how in three playoff series’ running, the Capitals drew their least-likely opponent, when the laws of statistics apply to everyone equally. Statistically, what were the odds that three times in a row, a team with a 4% chance of facing the Caps did exactly that?

Not at all; he didn’t, so we will never know.

1) No, gut feel isn’t unfettered by outside influence or agenda. I never said it was. I just said my personal gut said we’d get Tampa Bay because it was the least likely scenario, and I know what the Caps have had luck-wise that way for the last couple of years.

2) I know there’s a big difference between 4% and 0%, just like there’s a BIGGER difference between 96% and 4%. And if I could play the numbers in Vegas with that kind of odds and win, I sure’s hell wouldn’t be broke.

3) It doesn’t. But we do not know whether Varlamov would have won or lost, and can’t know now, so that is kindof a moot point. Yet it was brought up time and time again before it happened that Varly was our better chance in net. Since he wasn’t in net, and we won despite him being the “better chance” we’ll never know how he might or might not have done. But dismissing Neuvirth because Varlamov is statistically better is something I have never done.

Hey Neil, what’s the Log5 analysis for TBL/WAS?

Someone’s bitter about not getting the TV contract

ESPN sucks

I guess I’ve spent too much time watching hockey and baseball — I get the impression that American colleges are the de facto farm system for football and basketball, the teams don’t have much of a commitment to player development, and the players have generally been catered to in high school and college.

I went to a bunch in the mid to late 80’s when they used to occur starting early on a weekday at the Marriott Marquis in NYC. My dad worked for the league, so I got to walk the floor. Never forget one year; we were a Giants family, but the stands (small) were filled with almost only Jets fans at 7, am cheering for the J-E-T-S. I asked my dad where the Giants fans were and he looked at me and said, “Giants fans actually have jobs, son.”

The key is to not watch the draft on ESPN, watch on NFL network. Mike Mayock is 50 times better than Kiper could ever dream of being.

er *Alzner. Stupid typos.

you’re skipping Minnesota?! I bet it’s going to be a blast. Plus, the snow might have melted by June.

They’ve tried to address that in recent years by shortening the time between picks, but even if they made teams choose rapid-fire 1-minute-on-the-clock, it wouldn’t be for everybody, to be sure. If you really, really like the NFL or college football (and I stress that you have to like the leagues, or at least passionately follow one team, and not necessarily just the game of football itself), it’s good entertainment. Otherwise I understand why it can seem kind of inane.

i’m sorry, i don’t understand. japers’ rink is participatory and thus different than watching the NFL draft?

Without looking I’d say they were probably second in the conference in points, but behind the division winner.

And the PP to close Game 7, down by 1? Rich.

until we ruined it by taking Arnott away….

1-for 35 on the power play (2.9 percent)

No goals on 77 shots from their defensemen (the Pens had 33 goals from defensemen this season).

No one guy is to blame in a seven-game series loss, but Kris Letang needed to come up bigger than he did in this series.

Not getting Montreal’d on the power play, and not getting Los Angeles’d on the PK would have made this a short series with a Pittsburgh win, I think.

I think, in part, this is why F&B, myself and others look askance at statistical analyses that only account for ES or 5v5 play. It might be the easiest to model, or might provide the best predictive value over the course of a large sample, but it’s a poor indication of actual outcomes in a playoff series because so much of the action occurs in special teams play.

? Picture fail.

Yeah… WTF was that?

I think they’ll be ready, but it should pull them out of the 1-3-1.

(You Tube blocked at work, so I can’t see your link.)

I thought the same thing. There better not be any goals like that allowed by the Caps since they know about the move and have GOT to be aware of it

I noticed that. Really slick move. Caps need to be ready for that.

Caps should also have Rolo’s cross-handed style in mind when he goes to play the puck behind the net. The Pens got a great goal off that in game 6 from Talbot & Dupius anticipating it.

Rags tried it all series. We should be more than ready.

I would doubt that Neuvy faced a significantly higher percentage of "quality" shots than Roloson did

I would be shocked if Neuvy faced more “quality” shots than Roloson. NYR had a TON of difficulty generating scoring chances, and I think had three periods where they were 2 or under.

I respect Roloson because, like many NHL goalies, he’s capable of playing well and getting hot. But I’m not intimidated by him. If Tampa drops back into a shell to protect a lead, the Caps will get their chances and Rolo is going to have to be stellar in those situations. Is he capable of doing it? Sure. But I’ll take my chances.

Caps fans glossing over Roloson scares me

Nobody’s glossing over Roloson, but he’s 41-years old and he’s played in 61 games this season (four in the last week) and now he has to come back and play another four in six days (actually five days if you go by 24-hour periods). By comparison, Neuvirth is 23 and he’s played in just 53 games and he’ll have six day rest heading into Friday night. Experience is great, but at some point you have to believe fatigue is going to take over.