What Happens When Dennis Wideman is Healthy?
Eventually, Dennis Wideman is going to be healthy enough to return to the Capitals' lineup. This past Monday, Wideman skated in full pads for the first time since suffering a severe leg injury when hit by the Hurricanes' Tuomo Ruutu on March 29.
When Wideman is deemed ready to play, the Capitals will have a decision to make. I believe they will eventually choose from three options:
1. Leave Wideman out of lineup
2. Put Wideman in and take Jeff Schultz out
3. Put Wideman in and take John Erskine out
I submit that these are the only three options, because taking Carlson, Alzner, Green, or Hannan out of the lineup (assuming each is healthy) are not options that will be considered.
While I believe that Wideman will be inserted into the lineup, I don't believe it's a slam dunk. Wideman, Schultz, and Erskine are three very different defenseman, as a quick view of their career regular season and playoff stats show.
Regular Season
|
Gm |
G |
A |
Pts |
Pts Per Gm |
+/- |
PIM |
Shots |
Shot % |
ATOI |
|
|
Schultz |
319 |
10 |
56 |
66 |
0.21 |
86 |
109 |
175 |
5.70% |
19:12 |
|
Erskine |
396 |
11 |
31 |
42 |
0.11 |
-25 |
724 |
303 |
1.50% |
14:39 |
|
Wideman |
453 |
56 |
149 |
205 |
0.45 |
-31 |
331 |
918 |
6.10% |
23:09 |
Playoffs
|
Gm |
G |
A |
Pts |
Pts Per Gm |
+/- |
PIM |
Shots |
Shot % |
ATOI |
|
|
Schultz |
15 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0.07 |
1 |
6 |
8 |
0.00% |
19:10 |
|
Erskine |
24 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
0.125 |
4 |
26 |
20 |
0.00% |
17:48 |
|
Wideman |
30 |
1 |
21 |
22 |
0.73 |
4 |
8 |
65 |
1.50% |
25:13 |
Let's take a look at some defensive stats from this past season:
|
Gm |
Hits |
Blocks |
Tka |
|
|
Schultz |
72 |
53 |
138 |
17 |
|
Erskine |
73 |
166 |
120 |
11 |
|
Wideman |
75 |
95 |
126 |
38 |
For good measure, their vitals:
- Schultz is 25 years old, 6'6", 230 pounds and shoots left
- Erskine is 30 years old, 6'4", 220 pounds and shoots left
- Wideman is 28 years old, 6'0", 200 pounds and shoots right
We can see that, very generally:
- Wideman eats more minutes, is more offensive, and is the only right-handed shooter of the three.
- Schultz blocks more shots, tends to be more stay-at-home, and is the largest of the three.
- Erskine is more rough-and-tumble and closer to an enforcer - he was 2nd to Matt Hendricks in regular season penalty minutes.
So - what do the Capitals do?
Leaving the lineup the same as round one and keeping Wideman out would be the gutsiest call. Wideman was a +6 in 14 games with the Caps at ate up 24 minutes per game. Wideman is not Scott Walker. GMGM traded for him so he could play, not so he could be insurance. However, there will be voices that say "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
As tempting as it might be to leave well-enough alone, I think they insert Wideman. Right now, the Capitals have only 2 defensemen in the line-up that have would be considered offensive: John Carlson and Mike Green. Wideman adds nicely to the mix without sacrificing too much defense (he's not Marc-Andre Bergeron of the Bolts). Wideman can spell Green on the powerplay or man the point with Green, putting Ovechkin on the halfboard or in front of the goalie. Green and Wideman have never been in the lineup together, so we have no idea what the PP will be like when they are. Wideman also gives Bruce Boudreau three right-handed defensemen and three left-handed defenseman, and we know he likes symmetry. Lastly, as noted already, Wideman can eat minutes, which can come in handy in multi-OT games.
When they put Wideman in, I think they should take Jeff Schultz out. I write this not to jump on the "Sarge is slow" meme. I write this because I think that Erskine's toughness is needed more than Schultz's "stay-at-home" quality and blocked shots. I think that Scott Hannan and Karl Alzner play that stay-at-home role very nicely, and Erskine is good enough in that area. Schultz is just not a tough guy, and I think having a bruising defenseman will be important to set the tone in some games. In addition, Schultz is averaging over 23 minutes TOI thus far in the playoffs, well above his career averages. This season, he averaged just under 20 minutes per game. He could tire out. Lastly, if you look at this season's statistics above, Wideman had more hits, more take-aways and nearly as many blocks as Schultz. Wideman's effectively replaces any of Schultz's "toughness" and adds offense.
From where I sit, Erskine has improved enough to earn a spot in the lineup. He's more judicious with his hits and appears, IMO, to take fewer stupid penalties. He appears to be in the right spot at the right time during games. Most importantly, he fits the need for a 6th D more than Sarge does.
Thus - for my money, I'd like to see the Caps dress at defense:
Alzner-Carlson
Erskine-Wideman
Hannan-Green
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Comments
I think Sarge brings too much to the lineup to leave out. he’s a good line mate for 52 and 23 and maybe its just me but I feel like he brings a bit of a calm out there at times. erskine has had an excellent year but he’ll probably sit in my mind
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I think Schultz and Erskine will both sit out some games when Wideman is back, depending on the opponent and situation. I would sit Erskine more – Schultz is simply a better choice to pair with Wideman or Green, due to his defensive responsibility. If there is a game/series where the added toughness will be a factor, I could see throwing Erskine in. If you have Carlson-Alzner, Green-Hannan, Wideman-Schultz, that is 3 very solid pairings that don’t give a weak spot for the opponent to exploit.
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by timmyv38 on Apr 26, 2011 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
I agree with the “depending on the opponent” angle. Once we know who that is, look at the stats to see who’s matched up better. Off the top of my head, Shultz seemed exposed last year by Montreal and their water-bug forwards. Maybe Erskine has better numbers. In any event, I would expect some sort of rotation between Shultz and Erskine, and maybe even Wideman given that he’s been out of the lineup and may need a rest for at least one game.
by Dirk Dangler on Apr 26, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice post.
As well as Erskine has played this year, I think he sits. The toughness is nice, but he still needs his minutes protected in a way Schultz doesn’t and it is always an adventure when he has the puck (even more so than Schultz, IMO). Matchup is a consideration, but I’m not sure I really see a potential 2nd round opponent where they really need Erskine’s toughness (maybe if they draw PIT). Schultz’s TOI is also in part high because Wideman is out and Erskine is in. That will come down with Wideman back in the lineup.
I see:
Carlznerson
Green-Hannan
Schultz-Wideman
with that third pairing getting fewer ES minutes to help ease Wideman back in. But I also don’t think that BB will hesitate much to put in Erskine if Schultz is struggling.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Apr 26, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions
As well as Erskine has played this year, I think he sits
I love Erskine but I think he sits. Either that or Bruce plays musical chairs for a while to force people to compete for the spot to bring out their best.
The only downside I really see or Erskine is that he takes so many penalties. Shultz is way more disciplined. Then again, if you look guys that constantly stick up for their teammates, Erskine is the man and Shultz sits.
Tough Call.
The only downside I really see or Erskine is that he takes so many penalties.
Just looked this up…Erskine 20 taken, 9 drawn, in 13:52 per game, 73 GP, with Schultz at 5 taken, 1 drawn, in 16:53 per game, 72 GP. Huge difference there.
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by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure I buy the penalties as a reason to sit. When I was gathering this data, I looked at who had the most penalties on the Capitals.
Semin was third behind Erskine and Hendricks. In retrospect, with his remarkable hooking prowess in the offensive zone, this doesn’t surprise me. However, I don’t think you would sit Semin due to penalties. For that matter, I don’t think you sit Henricks due to penalties.
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In terms of the overall picture, penalties matter. Jeff Skinner’s value, for example, isn’t just offense, but the ~6 goals he created from drawing penalties. If the Caps are 20% PP and 85% PK, then Erskine got the Caps 1.8 extra goals, but lost 3 goals. Schultz got the team 0.2 goals, and lost .75 goals. For what it’s worth, Semin and Hendricks are both ~even in penalty differential.
Admittedly
Huge difference there
is relative. Neither has a big enough difference to be very meaningful over 7 games. But every little advantage helps, and Schultz can log more minutes while taking fewer minors against tougher competition.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure I put much weight into DRAWN penalties. Those could be anything and you really don’t have much control over the penalties committed AGAINST you, at least for Defensemen. Not unless it’s something that seems consistent, then DRAWING penalties might actually be a talent.
Plus the TYPE of penalties drawn really should be considered if you’re giving gold stars out for that stat. If you’re drawing a lot of cross checking, tripping penalties, etc, then you’re doing SOMETHING right because you’re doing something to make people try to get you out of the way.
If it’s high sticking, well that’s just the opposing player being careless.
There are definitely some guys who are better at drawing penalties than others. Guys like Semin and Corey Perry, for all the PIMs they do take, draw plenty, as well.
There’s definitely a large element of uncertainty. There are several players, like Dustin Brown, Patrick Kaleta, Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Ryan Kesler, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Burrows, and a few others, who can, season-to-season, consistently be near the top in penalties drawn.
2007-2008: Erskine -30, +5; Schultz -13, +3 (21 more GP, .99 more per 60)
2008-2009: Erskine -18, +8; Schultz -5, +4 (Schultz 1.6 more per 60, 12 more GP)
2009-2010: Erskine -16, +8; Schultz -12, +3 (Schultz 1.49 more per 60)
2010-2011: Erskine -20, +9; Schultz -5, +1 (Schultz 2.99 more per 60)
While it’s not unexpected for defensemen to be in the negative, Erskine total is -54, Schultz -24, and in much more TOI. Even if Erskine’s toughness is welcome, surely that isn’t worth 30 extra PKs against (~5-6 goals).
Again, though, probably not a big difference over 7 games.
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by red army line on Apr 27, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
In theory, toughness and big hits prevent goals against indirectly — by changing how the opposing team plays the game and by giving them something else to think about.
On the other hand, solid defense stops goals against directly — by stopping goals against.
Jeff Schultz averaged 23:15 per game in the first round, 2:44 of which was per-game penalty killing. His PK TOI was the second highest on the team, behind Scott Hannan’s 4:01 (!). The Rangers didn’t score any goals while Schultz was on the ice. None. 116:17 of gametime — nearly two full games — and the red light never went on behind Schultz during the entire series. And the Caps scored 5 goals with Sarge on the ice, all of them at ES, to give him a team-leading +5 rating for the series.
Erskine had a very nice series — for John Erskine. I thought his judgment was great, and he helped keep Avery, Prust, Boyle, Fedotenko, and Dubinsky honest. But he averaged only 15:39 of TOI per game, over than 5 minutes less than any other defenseman. He killed 0:42 of penalty time per game, which was half of the next lowest total among Caps defensemen. Erskine was sheltered.
Sure, Schultz looked awkward and gangly at times. He had some misplays where the Rangers almost scored. But almost scoring is all the Rangers managed against Schultz in about 30 more minutes of total ice time than John Erskine played. So yeah, I think Schultz has earned a sweater when Wideman comes back. It’ll be hard to sit Erskine because he really has battled and played well. But it’ll be nice to know that your seventh defenseman is that capable. Because let’s not fool ourselves — Erskine is the 7th defenseman.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Apr 26, 2011 1:25 AM EDT reply actions 18 recs
SOLD!
was about to hop on the sit sarge bandwagon, primarily b/c of the way he (mis)handled the puck in the d-zone. he never looked comfortable and made some really poor decisions which led to turnovers (or near-turnovers). against a team like pittsburgh who has a much better forecheck than the rags, this would be an issue. while erskine hasn’t historically been mr. smooth with the puck, i thought he looked great in this regard vs the rags, and made some great decisions.
that being said, i think your post provides strong evidence that override the (more qualitative) points i made above. you can’t keep the guy in who you’ve been sheltering and sit out the guy playing more and not giving up a single goal even with way more PK time.
I went into this post thinking with a bias towards Erskine, but not completely convinced. I was worried that Wideman’s more offensive nature would overwhelm the loss of Schultz’s defensive nature, if we took Schultz out for Wideman.
However, when I was able to find the blocks, take-aways, and hits data, I became more emboldened to advocate sitting Schultz. Wideman, perhaps, is better (at least statistically) than I gave him credit for.
I would also counter the TOI point by saying that rarely does a team have six D that all eat up ice time. I don’t think we need Schultz on the ice that much and thus discounted that in my discussion.
Most persuasive in your discussion is the PK TOI, which I didn’t look at. Did you find Wideman’s PK TOI in the regular season? Does he play on the PK and could he take up Schultz’ time?
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Wideman was over 3 mins per game on both units in DC. In Florida, he was 2:16 on the PK and 4+ on the PP.
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by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. I could argue, then, that Wideman could assume Schultz’s PK time.
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Here’s the advanced 4 on 5 data. They look pretty similar here. The number that catches my eye is that Schultz’s GAON/60 is 3.98, but his GAOFF/60 is 5.19 — the penalty kill was better with Schultz out there than without him. Wideman’s GAON/60 is lower — 3.44 — but his GAOFF/60 is just 3.65. The entire Caps team was much better defensively when Wideman was in the lineup, and he benefited.
Anyway, Wideman is definitely good enough to play Schultz’s PK time (though I don’t think quite as well). But then you’d lose some of the benefit of keeping Green and Wideman fresh to generate offense on the PP and ES.
Look, it comes down to what it always comes down to with Schultz: are you going to focus on the results or how he gets there? Watching Schultz play hockey is ugly as hell. It’s can also be damned effective. When he’s doing his thing, you never see his great plays. Meanwhile, every mistake he makes is magnified by his lumbering oafishness. But he’s playing his best hockey of the season right now, and I’d rather have him out there than Erskine. The main thing Erskine brings over Schultz is the ability to fight, and defensemen shouldn’t fight — especially in the playoffs.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Apr 26, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Stupidish question: why not dress 7 defensemen?
Sit down one of the forwards and you get a nice buffer in case one of our defensemen decides to block a shot (or an elbow) with his head.
You definitely could. Seven D I think though is more for 6 ES D and one “specialist” and with Wideman, Erskine is the 7th ES D, 7th PK D, and 7th PP D, so he’d hardly play at all. I think it’ll be pretty much the same as playing 6D, but with only 11F (except in the case you mention, injury).
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by red army line on Apr 26, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
It’d be funny to react to going from 5 defensemen in your lineup who can each handle 25+ minutes to 6 by adding an extra defenseman out there. Given the workhorses already in the lineup, I think the traditional 12-6-2 makes the most sense.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Apr 26, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Can Laich just bring goalie pads to the game in case of injury?
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somewhere there’s an article with Laich saying he couldn’t stand playing goalie. It would be funny to see though.
by HockeyDragon on Apr 26, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Can Bruce really be confident that both Green and Wideman will be able to make it through an entire game? Hendricks isn’t really bringing much to the table at this point. If Bruce thinks he could get by rotating Fehr and Chimera into the open 4th line winger spot, I think this is at least a legitimate option.
The way I see it (as I touched on below), this potential uncertainty about their health/ability to play the entire game is WHY you dress Schultz, who can eat big minutes if needed, instead of Erskine. I think you have to go in expecting your top 6 to start and finish the game, but also feeling confident that you can roll 5 if need be. I don’t think you dress the extra defender because someone might get hurt.
Great write-up....
I definitely do not envy BB and GMGM for the decision they’ll have to eventually make. If you had asked me on deadline day there would be zero hesitation before saying Erskine. Now I think it depends on the match-up…but if all are healthy for Game 1…I’d reluctantly say that Erskine is enjoying the nachos.
I think Erskine in game 1 to set the tone, and punish anyone crowding the crease is not a bad idea though. I think it will also be a focus of the Caps to take advantage of extra rest, and come out hitting hard. Erskine is a better fit for that game.
Later games could shift, and we could play Shultz.
Such depth makes me smile.
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Ridiculously good problem to have, isn’t it.
And then, if we go to our 7th defensmen, it’s good we aren’t tied down by multi-year deals. Huh? /facepalm
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It is a good problem to have.
As for the contract, in Erskine’s defense, he has done his best this season to play up to the contract he got. I think on some level, the contract (which many dogged GMGM for) mentally added to Erskine’s resolve and improved performance this year.
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by Brainumbc on Apr 29, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
exactly, this posts alludes to that as being a GREAT problem — we might have the best 4th pair of D in the league Erskine-Poti (yeah, remember him)!
For the record I would like to see the pairings:
hannan-wideman
carlson-alzner
green-shultz
all three pairings could avg. about 20 min. and with the vets covering TBs top-line, that leaves are next shutdown pair to take TBs second line with green-shultz 1) dominating whomever they’re against 2) makes the ST (PP for Green and PK for Shultz) stronger as their ‘top pair’ minutes would be cut down , etc, etc
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That would be my suggestion as well. As it is, with Green back in the lineup, it’s not all that easy to determine who really is our top pairing. Usually, it’s Carlson & Alzner. But Hannan also gets high minutes as well. We at least don’t have a D-man we have to hide, unlike some teams.
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It’s a really tough call, but I would sit Erskine until / unless our opponent (whoever it is) proves that we need his surliness on the ice. Schultz can play in any situation, and doesn’t need to be sheltered; if another defender goes down mid-game, we can still roll 5 with confidence and not have to shelter one of the remaining 5. This is a great luxury to have.
But with Erskine, lets face it, it’s not his fighting that we need in the lineup; it’s his willingness to be that guy mixing it up (but NOT taking a penalty) after the whistle. The “annoying to play against” guy, the guy that the other team knows will be giving you a facewash after the whistle if you’re hanging out in or near the crease. We have precious little of that throughout the lineup; I didn’t see much of it from our “grittier” forwards (Bradley, Hendricks, Chimera) against the NYR, but I certainly saw plenty of it from Erskine. The downside is that he can’t handle as many minutes as Schultz, and he’s not as versatile as Schultz (in terms of playing PK minutes or tough minutes against top opponents).
So, having presented those arguments, I would say we would want to play our guy that can handle ALL situations, and if we find that we need that sandpaper defenseman, we have a great one on the bench that we may need to shelter more than Schultz, but less than a lot of other “6-defensemen” around the league.
Let’s hit the opponent issue. It’s very important.
vs. BUF, It will come down to how Ennis/Gerbe are able to be matched up. I think you play John at home, and sit him in Buf.
vs. MON, I think Erskine sits. He’s a liability against their forwards.
vs. TB, Erskine sits lest we want images of Marty skating circles around him for the rest of our collective memories
vs. PIT, I think John has to play every game and you rotate Wideman in to give Sarge/Hannan some needed rest. That’s a knock-down, drag-out series with two teams that hate eachother. It will be physical beyond belief (Cooke back in the lineup, too).
Not for Round 2, but just for completeness
vs. BOS, Erskine may provide the counter to the big physical forwards BOS has. I don’t know if all of our D men get out alive in this series
vs. PHI, I think our best counter to PHI is skilled d-men, but PHI has exposed Myers to the tune of -5, and has been a plus in only one game of the series. Has PHI figured out the tall guys, or is Myers just Buf’s only D option and always on the ice? This one is a tough call. I feel like Sarge would match better against the skill of PHI’s forwards. But PHI is such a physically tough team…
I think we all may be assuming too much of Wideman’s recovery that he ought to play every game.
The match-up issue is very important. I agree with FFSE’s Round 2 opponent breakdown. Dress Erskine vs PIT to keep Matt Cooke and the other thugs honest, but he sits (except to spell Wideman for a game or two) versus MON or TB. Really, though, Hendricks and Bradley should be taking on primary duty of keeping the other side’s thugs in line. With Wideman and Green still in the process of fully coming back from injury, and our better depth at forward (particularly with MP85 as a Black Ace), Erskine ought not to be the first to throw a punch.
Of course, this all depends on Boudreau choosing to dress based on match-ups.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Option 4 - dress 7 defensemen
One I seriously debate to myself against an opponent like Tampa (more skilled/less physical than say Philly)
Dress all 7 Defensemen and scratch Hendricks. Heck, put Wideman or Green out on the 4th line from time to time.
-Wideman and Green put up better offensive numbers than many 4th liners
-Being natural defensemen they understand how to play a checking role
-they are fricking fast
-It allows for more versatile matchups against Tampa’s superstars, eg if the Caps want to shadow the Bolt’s best player with a certain D-man
-It lets Wideman be eased into the lineup as a PP specialist
-It is insurance against an injury or an extended OT game
-In the long term playoff picture it’s probably an advantage to play both Green and Wides less than 20 a game if possible
Put the black aces to work and switch to the 2-3?
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