FanPost

Is game four a must win for the Washington Capitals?

With a lackluster performance in game three some are starting to hit the panic button about Washington's chances to win the series. We are starting to see the misused overused adjective "must win" in greater frequency which can only mean one thing: don't panic.

If the Washington Capitals win Game 4, they increase they're chances of wining the series by 22.4%. If they lose, it only reduces their chances by 10% - far from a "must win." But there is no denying the games are getting more important. We can figure out the potential changes in win probability of winning a seven game (2-2-1-1-1) series for each team based on the outcome of a given game. Sorting by this average swing shows us which games have the most impact, and more importantly, which games are the "must wins" based on the record of the series.

<!--[if supportMisalignedColumns]-->
Game# Location Wins Losses Change
Game 7 Verizon Center 3 3 50.0%
Game 6 MSG 2 3 34.6%
Game 5 Verizon Center 2 2 28.6%
Game 4 MSG 1 2 23.1%
Game 3 MSG 1 1 21.0%
Game 2 Verizon Center 1 0 18.3%
Game 1 Verizon Center 0 0 17.2%
Game 4 MSG 2 1 16.2%
Game 6 MSG 3 2 15.5%
Game 2 Verizon Center 0 1 14.9%
Game 3 MSG 0 2 12.2%
Game 3 MSG 2 0 12.2%
Game 5 Verizon Center 3 1 10.7%
Game 5 Verizon Center 1 3 10.7%
Game 4 MSG 0 3 7.4%
Game 4 MSG 3 0 3.3%

 

Game four where the Caps are up 2-1 is pivotal, but not "must win." Check back with me during game five if the New York Rangers tie the series.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker