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Playoff Predictions




Below the jump are my playoff predictions and a general thread for everyone to prognosturbate.

Star-divide

Western Conference:

Quarterfinals:

Vancouver defeats Chicago in Six: I know Vancouver's had a bit of a blockage with the Hawks, but this Hawks team is a shadow of its former self. The Canucks' depth will pull this one through, but they'll definitely miss Malhotra.

San Jose defeats Los Angeles in Four: Maybe this goes five if Quick stands on his head and steals one. This San Jose squad is frighteningly good up front and their defense, while not stellar, should have little problem with LA's depleted forward corps.

Phoenix defeats Detroit in Seven: Like Chicago, this isn't the same Detroit team as in the past. Zetterberg is out, Datsyuk is nicked up and Lidstrom has looked downright human this year. I think Bryzgalov will badly outplay either of Detroit's goalies and the Coyotes will sneak away with their first (and possibly last) playoff victory in the desert.

Anaheim defeats Nashville in Six: Sorry Burton, but I don't think the Preds' stud D-men (Suter and Weber) will be able to contain all of Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan, Selanne and Koivu, though they may be able to slow down one line. Rinne will make this series interesting, but as in years past, the Preds won't have enough firepower to make it out of the first round.

Semifinals:

Vancouver defeats Phoenix in Five: Phoenix gives it a good run before heading to Winnipeg, but their Cinderella story comes crashing down against the Canucks.

San Jose defeats Anaheim in Seven: Tough, brutal series, but Anaheim just can't handle San Jose's depth at forward as their bottom-pairing defensemen get tooled by Couture, Clowe and Heatley.

Finals:

San Jose defeats Vancouver in Six: I don't think Vancouver will manage to keep all their defensemen healthy through the playoffs and, once some guys go down to injury, the Sharks will be able to use their depth to control the pace of the game. I also think Luongo will give up one stinker at some point in the series, leading to calls for Schneider and a distracting "goaltending controversy" in the media.

 

Eastern Conference:

Quarterfinals:

Washington defeats New York in Five: I'm worried about this prediction. The Rangers are the team I least wanted the Caps to draw in the first round. On the other hand, if the Caps play the way they're capable of, they should handle the Rangers fairly easily. Frankly, I think tonight's game will speak volumes about the course of the series. If the Caps come out firing and playing with attention to detail, the Rangers should crumble in five. If the Caps cough up an early goal or two en route to a loss. . . this one's headed to seven.

Philly defeats Buffalo in Six: The Pronger-less Flyers are still a much better team than the Roy-less and Leopold-less Sabres. Buffalo's goaltending advantage will make this one more interesting than it ought to be, but the Flyers will prevail just like the Sharks will out west - on the back of their depth. The Flyers will be able to get good forwards like van Riemsdyk or Briere out against defensemen like Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Weber and Chris Butler.

Boston defeats Montreal in Seven: Montreal's speed and Carey Price will push this series to seven, but ultimately I think the Bruins will win out. If Montreal can earn a split in Boston and their little, pesty players can get under the skin of some Boston guys and draw penalties, they could conceivably pull off an upset here.

Tampa Bay defeats Pittsburgh in Six: No Malkin, no Crosby, no series win. While I admire the work that Bylsma, Fleury, Letang and Staal have done in the absence of their star players, I think much of their continued success post-Crosby was based in part on unsustainable luck in tight games and on the fact that teams probably took the Crosby- and Malkin-less Pens less seriously. Like San Jose and Philly, the Bolts have some strong forward depth, particularly now that Malone is back. Pittsburgh really doesn't have enough forward depth to exploit Tampa's biggest weakness, which is the bottom three of their defensive corps.

Semifinals:

Washington defeats Tampa in Six: Unlike Pittsburgh, the Caps have the offensive depth to exploit Tampa's crappy bottom pair defensemen. Marty St Louis' heroics will cause some heartburn in the DMV, but the Caps will come out on top.

Boston defeats Philly in Seven: The B's lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Flyers in seven games last year. They'll get their revenge this year backstopped in stellar fashion by Tim Thomas.

Finals:

Boston defeats Washington in Seven: Not yet, Caps fans. Not yet. Tim Thomas, Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara combine to shut down Backstrom and Ovechkin and the Caps' second line isn't able to carry the water. Wideman doesn't make it back and nagging injuries wear down the Caps' defensive corps against the physical Bruins forecheck.

Stanley Cup Finals:

San Jose defeats Boston in Six: A motivated Joe Thornton is a scary sight to behold, and nothing motivates Jumbo Joe like playing against the team that treated him like a red-headed step-child.

Conn Smythe: Joe Thornton

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Recap: Caps 3, Sabres 1

Dec 2011 by J.P. - 114 comments

Comments

Display:

Not yet, Caps fans. Not yet.

Boo! Hiss!

by Berube Doobie Doo on Apr 13, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Boo this man

I agree with you on the Rags, We have to come out firing tonight, make a statement.

Check out a new social network, Hockey Connect, a place for coaches, players, family and fans to share strategies and experiences.

by Cap-O-Vens on Apr 13, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

I just call it like I see it.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

And a good call it is. The only thing I have different is in the WC with Anaheim falling to the Preds and Detroit prevailing over the ’Yotes. Just my hunch on those two games.

Same Old Sith. CAPS desperately need the help of The Force soon... http://tinyurl.com/OuttaTheWayDad-GotSomeSithToDo

by Christoph J on Apr 13, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Bruins?

King of all chokes? That will not be our Waterloo.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

The team with zero Cups and a long history of choking shouldn’t be the one sitting in the geodesic dome made out of glass chucking stones.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Hey, we are up there, but we’ve never blown 3-0 (and 3-0).

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

True, but up 3-1 against the 8 seed when you’re the President’s Trophy winner is pretty bad. :(

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or as some may say, we’ve never blown 3-0 because we’ve never had a chance!

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

yes, but we’ve “learned” from that

/shudders…..

"We still have the power to score. And we will do that now."

by Pi on Apr 13, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t go to far with the choke label, but I agree if it’s the Caps and Bruins, the Caps win. I’m mostly worried about the first series.

DOOMED!
It’s all wrong, but it’s all right.

by OldPhil on Apr 13, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Out West:

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I think LAK will be more competitive, even with the injuries. I think they should put up at least as much of a fight as COL did last year. I think it’ll make it 6 games.

I think PHX can pull it off, but they have to do it in 6. I don’t see them winning game 7 on the road. Ditto on NSH. They could win, but have to sweep the home games and steal one in ANA before game 6. Rinne has to be huge, and their secondary scorers (i.e. the whole team) needs to come up big.

And nobody is going to Winnipeg.

Out East:

Hahahahaha. 5 games. Oh man, that’s rich. This one is going 7, and I don’t love our chances.

Pens/TBL will be good, but I think you underestimate the Pens’ ability to exploit the TBL D. Some great systems stuff here. That fast and physical Pens forecheck is alive and well, and it’s going to cause problems. This is a good match up for PIT, but could still go TBL’s way. This is the hardest one to call because of so many variables. Sid or no Sid? How does Roloson hold up?

No chance Thornton gets Conn Smythe. If SJS manages to win it, I’m pegging Pavelski.

First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!

by Rob Parker on Apr 13, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d go with Marleau as the MVP should the Sharks win it — he’s been on a massive upswing over the past two months, has tons of momentum coming into the playoffs, and would have a great story arc going into this.

I just hope it’s not the Bruins. My brother in law and I have been in a running email shit talking about the playoffs. His head would explode from smug.

Dingos are involved. Best not to ask.

by alex_k on Apr 13, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

D’oooooooooooooooooohhhhbooooooooooy. D’oooooooooooooooooooohboy. D’OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHBOY.

You suck.

And haven’t done your research. We’ll soon find out, anyway.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 13, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I know this is going to sound rude, so don’t take it the wrong way, but I really don’t watch much of the Preds because I find the team boring as hell to watch. I do know, however, that your team is beat up and lacked punch even before that. The Ducks weathered a long storm without either their #1C or their #1G and are now decently healthy. If Emery can play well, or barring that if Hiller can make a return, I think Anaheim is the much better team.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meh. Not rude, just common.

Nashville scores at a pretty significantly better clip than the Ducks at even strength. 75% of hockey is played at even strength, and I think that Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and David Legwand can “contain” RPG at 5-on-5.

That leaves Jerred Smithson’s line to try and contain Koivu/Selanne, and while that may not end up working well, Hornqvist/Fisher/Kostitsyn are going to go off on Brandon McMillan. The Ducks are a two line team. Nashville isn’t. The Preds are getting Sullivan and O’Reilly back for this series to likely play along side Wilson, which is a heckuva fourth line.

Furthermore, Anaheim is going to have to hide Fowler/Brookbank, but they’re not going to be able to completely, and the Preds’ crazy forecheck is going to cause major problems.

Finally, Rinne’s been, bar none, the second best goaltender in the NHL all season. If he decides to shut it down, then the Ducks legitimately have no real chance.

Further reading.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 13, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bar none, the second best, is probably bar none in my top five favorite sayings.

Personally, I think there’s a case that Tim Thomas has been, bar none, the second best in the league.

First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!

by Rob Parker on Apr 13, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

Ha. That’s a product of me typing out “best”, then figuring I’d better amend it to second best b/c of Thomas’ stats.

But seriously, screw Tim Thomas.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 13, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cue the you tube of Semin smoking him from outside the blue line…

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Ducks are a two line team. Nashville isn’t.

Be that as it may, the Ducks’ #1 forward has almost as many points by himself as Nashville’s two top scorers combined.

Yes, Weber, Suter and Legwand may slow down RPG (they won’t stop them, though), but I don’t see your second/third pairing stopping Koivu/Selanne.

The Caps had a huge ES advantage over the Habs last year and special teams ended up deciding the series. Despite the fact that 75% of the game is played at even strength, 75% of the goals aren’t score at even strength, and goals are what decide games.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

It’s a team game. Nashville’s a better team than the Ducks. Will that play out over 7 games? Who knows.

Big problem with stopping 8/11/33 for ANA is that Jonathon Blum is on the 2nd pair. Klein can handle himself alright, but Blum trying to stop Koivu and Selanne for 7 games could get ugly. He’s similar to Fowler in that he’s an amazing puck mover, but not so savvy yet.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 13, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Roger on the team game part, but the flip side of that is that players can only be on the ice so much, so it behooves you to get the best guys you can out there. This is why really deep teams often aren’t as good as they look on paper.

I think that 20-23 minutes of RPG is more valuable than 13-15 minutes of Tits/Horny/Sullivan/Smithson/Spaling/Dupont/whomever. In other words, I don’t think it’s as valuable to be able to roll 4 lines of decent players as it is to roll one great line, one good line and two lines of “meh.” The former has been Nashville’s philosophy every year except ‘06 and it hasn’t worked very well.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

While allowing that it’s just game one…

Ahem.

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 14, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess you didn’t learn your lesson about premature gloating during the fantasy hockey season.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Apr 14, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Also, why don’t you bust out your predictions?

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 13, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

They’re up.

Caps in 5
Sabres in 7
Pens in 6
Habs in 6
Hawks in 7
Wings in 6
Sharks in 5
Preds in 6

"Nothing." - Tuukka Rask, after being asked what he saw on Shea Weber's game winner in overtime.

by Chris Burton on Apr 13, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice job on the Caps and Preds.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

by zephyr on Apr 26, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

/.:.\

Here’s my bracket I made Monday night. Some of the picks are reasoned and some of them aren’t at all. Every time logic is brought into the playoffs it ends in disaster. I think this is going to be a really crazy year.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

by zephyr on Apr 13, 2011 3:16 PM EDT reply actions   3 recs

Crazy sure would hold true to form, wouldn’t it? I think it’ll be crazy, I just can’t see how and I can’t see us coming out on top.

First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!

by Rob Parker on Apr 13, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can’t make a bracket without picking the Capitals. That’s where my homerism begins and ends.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

by zephyr on Apr 13, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

1st round: WSH, BUF, BOS, TBL / VAN, DET, SJS, ANA
2nd round: WSH, BOS / VAN, SJS
3rd round: BOS / SJS
Champs: BOS

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Apr 13, 2011 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I guess you’re trying to be objective, but I don’t see how you and others could feel that Boston is going to be our stumbling point. Also, given the play of the Caps and the relative competition in the east, I think expecting the SCF is well within reason.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

East: Washington in six; Buffalo in five; Boston in four; Tampa in seven.
West: Vancouver in six; San Jose in five; Phoenix in seven; Nashville in six.

Second round – East: Washington in seven; Boston in five.
West: Vancouver in five; Nashville in seven.

Conference Finals – East: Boston in five.
Conference Finals – West: Vancouver in four.

Finals: Vancouver in six.

by Wheeler on Apr 13, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Conn Smythe – Henrik Sedin

by Wheeler on Apr 13, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAS in 6
BUF in 7
BOS in 4
TBL in 7

WAS in 7
TBL in 6

WAS in 6

VAN in 5
SJS in 5
DET in 7
ANA in 7

VAN in 6
DET in 6

VAN in 5

Cup: VAN in 4

Conn Smythe: Kessler

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Apr 13, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions  

In FOUR? Damn what a tough crowd….

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 13, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve said this all season: Chicago is better than its record indicates. You think the Rangers are a bad matchup for the Caps? Chicago is (with the possible exception of SJS), the worst possible draw out of the entire Western playoff field for Vancouver.

Is Luongo better than Crawford? He sure is, but Hossa is better than anyone the ’Nucks have on the wing (I went there!), Keith/Seabrook is a better top pair than the Canucks have and Toews is at least as good as Kesler and a bad matchup for the Sedins (a guy with the hockey IQ to play well against them and better physical tools).

Do the Canucks have better depth? Yes, but it’s not that much better when you look at it. They’re a better team, but I won’t be at all surprised if Chicago walks out of GM place with another series win against the Canucks in their pocket.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

The profile picture is the result of a lost bet. Chris Burton's favorite footballer is Christiano Ronaldo.

by Knee high to a duck on Apr 13, 2011 6:19 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

As for predictions:

Caps in Six
Philly in Five
Boston in Six
Pittsburgh in Six

Vancouver in Seven
San Jose in Five
Detroit in Seven
Nashville in Seven

Caps in Seven
Philly in Seven

Vancouver in Six
San Jose in Six

Philly in Six
San Jose in Seven

San Jose in Seven

Assembled press pool has an attack of good sense and names Patrick Marleau the Conn Smythe winner.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

The profile picture is the result of a lost bet. Chris Burton's favorite footballer is Christiano Ronaldo.

by Knee high to a duck on Apr 13, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wish I would have seen this comment before Wednesday night so I could have wagered you any amount of money, goods or services that Chicago was not winning this series, although it sounds like you are hedging there anyway, warning of a Chicago victory then taking Vancouver in 7. ;-)

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 15, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

My point wasn’t that Chicago was going to win the series, my point is that Chicago is far better than their record this year and represents a tough out, even for Vancouver.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Apr 15, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hossa is a nice, well rounded complementary player. He’s not an all-star, and by that I mean the real all-stars they vote for at the end of the season, not that joke in mid-winter.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Apr 15, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hossa is one of the top wings in the league and, without thinking about it, I’d probably put him in the top-5.

Matt Hendricks is a honey badger.

by D'ohboy on Apr 15, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

No doubt.

First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!

by Rob Parker on Apr 15, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I got:

Caps in 5
Sabres in 5—Philly needs Pronger back ASAP
Bruins in 7
Penguins in 5—teams heading in opposite directions for the last half-season
Canucks in 7
Sharks in 4
Red Wings in 5
Predators in 6

Capitals in 6*—the same criteria by which I pick Buffalo over Philly should hold true here, but Wideman comes back and makes a difference
Penguins in 6
Canucks in 6
Sharks in 7—should be an awesome series against Detroit

Capitals in 7*
Sharks in 6—another great series, but I like San Jose’s D better.

Sharks in 6—not picking the Sharks to win at VC, for sure…
Smythe: Marleau

*possible homer pick

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.

by red army line on Apr 13, 2011 8:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Caps in 7, PHI in 5, MTL in 7, PIT in 6
VAN in 6, SJ in 5, DET in 7, ANA in 7

Caps in 6, PHI in 7 (although this pick is under the assumption that Crosby isn’t back for Round 2)
Van in 7, SJ in 6

Caps in 7
VAN in 6

VAN in 7

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Apr 14, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions  

My first round picks were (I prefer to pick round-at-a-time):
DET, SJS, NSH, VAN, WAS, BUF, TB, BOS

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by winterion on Apr 27, 2011 3:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I almost want to abandon my bracket and pick Nashville to beat the Canucks. The Canucks just don’t look that good.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

by zephyr on Apr 28, 2011 1:39 AM EDT reply actions  

The Canucks as a team had Chicago dancing in their heads. Last night’s win was an enormous hurdle for all of them, not just Luongo. I think they will come out fired up in the 2nd round with that monkey off their backs.

I only got 5 of the 8 winners right, but my 2nd round picks are still looking good with the exception of maybe San Jose. Niemi was awful in the first round, and DET looked like they will be real tough to beat with this break to rest and get healthy. Beyond that, the Sedins really need to play like they did the first 3 games if VAN is gonna beat DET. If they got dominated by Bolland they are going to get slaughtered by Datsyuk and Zetterberg if they face DET.

In the East I got the opponents for the Caps and Flyers wrong, but I don’t think that will change the outcomes.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Apr 28, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

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