Varly / Neuvy comparison

by GusDaMan on Mar 30, 2011 4:36 PM EDT

I originally posted this data in the Wednesday Caps Clips, and it was suggested I turn it into a FanPost. I've never done one of these before, so here goes nothing.

I went back and looked at the stats for both Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth over their past 20 COMPLETE games. This goes back through the game on Nov 28 for Varly, and the game on Dec 11 for Neuvy. Each player had a couple of partial games during that time period that I omitted in order to keep the overall data as consistent as possible. What I found was that, aside from goal support and record, their stats are nearly identical during that 20 game period. Details after the jump.

Neuvirth vs. Varlamov, Last 20 Complete Games

	MIN	W	L	OTL	GA	GAA	SA	SA/G	SV	SV%	SO	GF	GF/G	SF	SF/G	OPP SO
Michal Neuvirth	1203	11	7	2	44	2.19	593	29.65	549	.926	3	48	2.40	584	29.20	2
Semyon Varlamov	1208	8	8	4	44	2.19	598	29.90	554	.926	1	36	1.80	648	32.40	6

Some things that really jump out at me:

identical goals against, GAA, and Save Percentage
Big edge to Neuvy in goal support
Better "Shots For" support for Varlamov, despite having significantly worse goal support

If you limit this to just the last 10 complete games for each goalie, the same trends continue to hold true, and the "shots for" support margin becomes even more pronounced:

Neuvirth vs. Varlamov, Last 10 Complete Games

	MIN	W	L	OTL	GA	GAA	SA	SA/G	SV	SV%	SO	GF	GF/G	SF	SF/G	OPP SO
Michal Neuvirth	604	7	3	0	23	2.28	317	31.70	294	.927	2	23	2.30	266	26.60	1
Semyon Varlamov	602	3	5	2	22	2.19	292	29.20	270	.925	0	17	1.70	311	31.10	3

I originally undertook this exercise expecting to demonstrate that the team generates more offense (in the form of shots) when playing in front of Neuvirth versus Varlamov. As it turns out, that is not the case; in fact, in recent games (last 10 starts), we see that Varlamov actually enjoys significantly more shot support (4.5 more shots per game).

I was starting to lean towards Neuvy in the "starting playoff goalie" debate due to the fact that the team appears to play better in front of him, but these stats failed to back up that position. So, let the debate rage on I guess.

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Comments

Nice work. I’m impressed. For me it illustrates just why the debate rages on in these threads. Both are good goalies, both want to be the no. 1, and yet neither have been able to seize the no. 1 spot. Makes me think of Irbe’s comments in 24/7 that it’s up to Varly and Neuvy to raise the level of the game. The opportunity is there. One of them just has to take it.

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by capsyoungguns on Mar 30, 2011 5:32 PM EDT reply actions

Truly Goalie #1A and #1B. Or the other way ’round. Wow.

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by EmilyB on Mar 30, 2011 5:33 PM EDT reply actions

Nice work.

I don’t really believe in the idea that the team plays better in front of one goalie than another, plus the fact that the shots for and goals for are completely different makes for murky waters in that regard anyway. So my take from these stats is that the goalies have been playing at roughly the same level. Which confirms what I already knew, that this is a very tough decision for Bruce.

I keep getting pulled back to the behindthemask GVT, where Varly has been worth .45 GVT per game while Neuvy is only worth .24. Plus Kareem’s posts that consistently show Varly with a higher Delta G/60. I think if Bruce thinks Varly is healthy and ready, he has to be the one.

by psuscott1 on Mar 30, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent work.

What jumps out at me, beyond their almost identical defensive stats, is that what’s missing is a Shooting % column, which would show …

20 Games
Neuvy 8.2%
Varly 5.6%

10 Games
Neuvy 8.6%
Varly 5.5%

So, they shoot more and score less with Varly in net. By a fairly significant margin. How the hell do we explain that trend?

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by Baildog on Mar 30, 2011 5:35 PM EDT reply actions

I think there are a few possible factors —

1. Quality of opponents (i.e. Varly plays against better teams? Don’t think this is true to a significant extent, someone had the numbers the other day)
2. Time (i.e. most of Varly’s complete games came back when the team was not doing so well as a whole if I recall correctly)
3. Quality of shot — 40 shots from the perimeter without screens will generally score fewer goals and have a lower Shooting % than 20 from the slot)

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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 30, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we heard the best explanations in the earlier thread.

1) We weren’t playing as well as a team when Varly was getting games.
2) When we play from behind (getting off to an early deficit) we will outshoot the opposition but not get goals (at least, we didn’t find that skill until recently).
3) (the corollary to 2) When we get ahead we’ve found a way to keep shots to the outside, limit rebound chances, etc. This again looks like a recently gained skill.

A stat I’d love to see is which team scores first when each goalie is in net. Or what’s the scoring and shot differential after one period. I’m assuming those will be a bit more correlated and favor Neuvy. And then the stats would make a bit more sense.

by six hole on Mar 30, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I would love to see that as well – there doesn’t seem to be any other logical reason for the stats shown here.

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by timmyv38 on Mar 30, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps a factor...

Neuvirth’s v. Varly’s puck handling skills. By my eyes neither is as good as Holtby, and both are average to below average in this category. Better goaltender puck handling skills = better breakouts, more possessions, more shots.

Maybe that partially explains the shots for disparity. (Though IIRC, in past years the “Shots For” metric is reversed. So maybe not.)

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by breed16 on Mar 30, 2011 5:56 PM EDT reply actions

Off the cuff, regardless of puck-handling proficiency, it would seem like at least Alzner and Carlson would be very comfortable with Neuvirths’ tendencies and work more easily with him in puck management in the d zone/getting the puck moved up than with the other two. They’ve been through a lot more together than with the other two goaltenders.

If there is something there involving those three (I have no idea) it could also/instead show as improved +/- , less D zone time, more Caps puck possession, … with those 3 on the ice together than w/ a different goaltender.

I personally am comfortable with any of the goalies as they’ve all shown reasons to think they could be the guy in the playoffs. Some thou have more reasons why they couldn’t be the guy than others though.

by Icebat on Mar 30, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

The Alzner/Carlson combination would also be comfortable with Holtby as well. If memory serves me correctly, Holtby probably got more regular season starts than anyone else, including Neuvrrth, Bacashahua (sp?). Neuvirth missed some games early in the year so Holtby was up in his stead. And then Varly got injured so Neuvy was with the Caps then, hence another callup for Holtby. By the end of the year, after Neuvy was sent down, they alternated starts (with an occasional start for Bacashahua). And then Neuvy played in nearly all the playoff games. (Admittedly, we had callups of Carlson and Alzner in there as well).

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by CapsFan75 on Mar 30, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah that could be true, I also meant their time together in Hershey/the Calder Cup racing

by Icebat on Mar 31, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice work, and stunning to see such similar numbers. I expected Varly to come out ahead easily in sv% and GAA.

Part of the shot differential: when teams trail, they’re quicker to pull the trigger, and leading teams sit back.

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by red army line on Mar 30, 2011 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

Face it- none of us can guess at this point what decision BB will make with regard to the game 1 starter. Past experience tells us all that how he plays in game 1 will decide the started in game 2, etc.

by Sturmtiger on Mar 31, 2011 8:35 AM EDT reply actions

My thoughts...

I have long thought that the discrepancy in the goalies raw stats, where Neuvy comes out as the worst of the three, could in part be attributed to Neuvy starting the lion’s share of the games prior to the change in defensive philosophy. A look at the last 20 games proves my point: Since the team went to the new system, the stats of the two goalies are nearly identical. No question, Holtby has been the most impressive. But between Neuvy and Varly, Neuvy seems to make the big save more often than Varly, the game saver. Be it 3-3 or 1-1, I feel more comfortable with Neuvy there than Varly. Though Neuvy has had his health issues, he has shown to be more durable than Varlamov. And he has played as well as Varly with a much larger sample size on the season. He is my playoff starter.

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by Jalabar on Apr 1, 2011 2:49 AM EDT reply actions

I’m not sure that I can reconcile “Since the team went to the new system, the stats of the two goalies are nearly identical.” with “But between Neuvy and Varly, Neuvy seems to make the big save more often than Varly, the game saver.”

by psuscott1 on Apr 1, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions