"For six months, folks inside and outside of Kettler Capitals Iceplex have suspected that Washington was pacing itself after last April'shistoric first-round collapse in the playoffs. In that series, Backstrom didn't register a point in the final three games, while Ovechkin had a goal and an assist as Montreal rallied from a three-games-to-one deficit.
To me, it looks like we've now got enough evidence to conclude the Capitals were doing just that. They've won 14 of their past 17 games, all despite injuries to key players. Ovechkin, prior to his injury, had been playing better than he had since November. Now Backstrom, the team's second most important player, seems to have rediscovered his game." - Tarik El-Bashir
about 1 year ago
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I do think there is some truth to this, particularly with Ovie – he seemed to flip a switch around the trade deadline and has looked like his old self. But at the same time, I am sure that at certain points – particularly during that losing streak in December – these guys were giving it all they had.
by grapejoos on Mar 29, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pretty interesting that he doesnt give a damn about scoring goals…sign of maturity which I love…but he does seem banged up.
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I have a very, VERY good feeling about whats going to happen in the playoffs. The Caps have “it” right now …. I think they timed the their peak perfectly.
"Can you smell what the Arnott is Cooking?"
by TheFuryUnleashed on Mar 29, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
Dear NHL,
You’ve just been Rickrolled!!
Love,
The Washington Capitals
by j3rockstar on Mar 29, 2011 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 11 recs
youve been Rec’rolled
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All of this was a 26 year joke on RJ Umberger.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Er, 36.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, and next Bruce will be telling Pierre McGuire: “Now feel the power of this fully operational power play.”
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by apk3000 on Mar 29, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 12 recs
Many Thoresons died to bring us this information.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 12 recs
Bruce does sorta have Admiral Akbar qualities …
"Can you smell what the Arnott is Cooking?"
by TheFuryUnleashed on Mar 29, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand why everyone is so optimistic about the team’s success since the trade deadline, but a couple things still worry me.
1. The inability to hold on to a 3-0 lead against Philadelphia
2. The total lack of effort in Ottawa game
I will be extremely optimistic if the PP improves to mediocre.
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2. The total lack of effort in Ottawa game
Obviously, they are saving themselves.
Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson
Keep in mind the Caps had 3, maybe 4 near-misses in the OTT game – I can think of two by Sasha and another skirmish on our one good PP of the game. Also the Sens’ first goal was BS. The Caps could easily have won that game 3-1 or 4-2, despite this “lack of effort.” Three weeks before the playoffs those are tough games to get up for.
Our defensive performance against Philly was alarming, but I’m hoping it was just a bad night without two of most important players.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
Also, score effects. The Caps got 3 cheap ones pretty early, and Philly brought everything they had. As soon as Philly tied it up, they sank back and the Caps struck pretty quickly.
I actually take heart from the Philly game. The Caps could easily have (and in earlier years, probably would have) folded the tents and given it up in that game.
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I’ll say two cheap ones. I’m not picking on you, because the VS guys were saying the same thing, but I thought Knuble’s goal was legit. He flicked the puck up over Bob’s shoulder into tiny space between goalie and post. I thought it was sweet.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
Thought Bob should have challenged the shot more, instead of getting caught way deep in the crease.
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Same thing the VS guys said, so I’m sure there is something to the point. But my recollection is that Knubs got a nice pass from MJ90 who was almost behind the net. It was pretty bang-bang
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I see what you are saying – but you try to get excited to play ottawa.
I’m fishing I know – and I didn’t see the game, but Ottawa is in last place – I understand why it’s a game where they didn’t show up (I don’t agree with it – but it happens).
by vt caps fan on Mar 29, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m more encouraged by the Montreal game after the Ottawa game than I am discouraged by the Ottawa game.
That said, it looked like a continuation of the Philly game. We had issues getting out of a heavy forecheck, which should be remedied whenever Arnott/Ovechkin/Green(fingers crossed here) come back.
Ottawa was a terrible effort, but the Sens also benefitted from great goaltending.
by redpezrocket on Mar 29, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And phenomenally bad reffing.
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
Yep. If the definition of saving yourself for the playoffs is to get by with just enough effort in easy games, the Caps had enough chances to have a lead in that one.
I’m tossing that game on the scrap heap of history.
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If either of those events had happened with a fully healthy team, I’d have been worried.
But against OTT it was Ovi/Arnott/Fehr out and Ovi/Arnott out against PHI.
"And then they’ll look at guys in my situation, that could play three good games in a row and have one bad shift, and they’ll say, ‘Well, that’s why he’s been in the minor leagues his whole career.'" --Matt Hendricks
The inability to hold a lead against Philly doesn’t bother me at all, for a few reasons – for one, they were leading but were being outplayed by the Flyers, and the biggest reason they had the lead was because Bobrovsky couldn’t stop a beach ball that night. When the Flyers got more desperate and threw more at them they just didn’t have enough to hang on to the lead – I’m more comforted by the fact that they stayed in the game and came back to tie it, particularly considering who was out.
As for the total lack of effort against Ottawa…eh. I found it hard to care about that one, too. Can’t imagine they were particularly invested, and obviously you’d love them to turn it on every game, but of the three games this week that was the one most likely to be a downer. It happens.
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I think there might be some truth to this, but 17 games is still a fifth of a season. I would think they would just wait a little longer to turn it on if they were truly ‘saving’ themselves for playoffs. Let’s just hope they win 16 of at most 28 come playoffs.
Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson
I’m still not buying the “pacing themselves” thing. The NHL is too hard, injuries too unpredictable, and management positions too unstable to play such games.
I don’t think it’s necessarily a conscious thing, as Tarik is suggesting – they’ve put forth too much effort some nights, particularly during the losing streak when nothing was going right, for me to believe they were simply holding back.
I DO think it’s possible that some of it was subconscious, however. Backstrom’s quote in the article itself: "It’s getting closer to the playoffs now, too, and you feel more energized." Can’t help but think it wasn’t a case of them really not wanting to try but them not finding the motivation to keep it up for long periods of time.
…but who knows? It’s all conjecture at this point.
Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.
+1
I thinks the Caps killed themselves trying to win every game last season and got burned out. The nature of the NHL dictates it’s far better to be a 7-seed playing your best hockey in April than a President’s Trophy winner who is out of gas.
Toss in some injuries, trade additions and a slight tweak of team strategy and it makes sense the team might not look legit until early March.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
After that Game Seven loss to Montreal, Green said that the hard part was that they had to go through another 82-game season to attone for that series. I think most of the team viewed this regular season as just an impediment to the playoffs, something they had to endure before the real season started. Looking at it that way, I can easily see why some nights the effort just wasn’t all there. Not saying it’s the right way to do it, but I do understand how it can happen.
Translation:
“The Capitals, particularly Backstrom and Ovechkin, recognize that all that matters at all, ever, for the rest of their careers is the playoffs. So they don’t try as hard in the early part of the regular season.”
You could take this two ways:
1) BAD because relying on an ability to “flip the switch” allows bad habits to creep in, and a dangerous comfort with letting bad games happen (like Ottawa game)
2) GOOD because they have learned the hard way exactly what it means to be ready for the playoffs, and what it takes to win in the playoffs.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but it’s hard not to feel optimistic that their heads are in the right place.
The keyboard is mightier.
FYI, Washington Times reporting that Ovechkin and Arnott will play tonight: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/capitals-watch/2011/mar/29/ovechkin-arnott-set-play-vs-hurricanes/
Head to Clips thread with such discussion…
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by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
What does “pacing themselves” even mean? They intentionally played poorly for months to prepare themselves for the playoffs? It’s easy for media types to spout this nonsense because it’s impossible to refute it.
the little things add up
how often you give yourself to block a shot against a shitty opponent in december
how often you give that extra 5% of energy you don’t have in a shift late in the 2nd period
how hard you try to get your mental and discipline game focused each and every night, facing a different team every day, for months on end.
Yeah, it’s nebulous and thus impossible to disprove, but it also partially explains to me the difference between regular season hockey and playoff hockey.
It’s one of the reasons bounces, inches, and good breaks are infinitely harder to come by come playoff time.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
So the key to succeeding the playoffs is to half-a** the regular season? I don’t quite buy that.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s that at all. You can make 8 hits a game but you have to consider whether you should (as a strategy) dial it down a bit because 8 hits every game is going to take its toll. If you think you can get away with only making the hits that really need to be made, or blocking the shots that really, really need to be blocked, versus just stepping in front of a puck just to look good or boost the stats sheet, it might be better in the longterm.
by redpezrocket on Mar 29, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
But that translates to losing games, hence the “pacing themselves.” Not really sure how that’s different from half-a**ing.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s a difference between not playing full bore every game and not putting in an effort. I don’t think anyone went into a game wanting to lose or intentionally played poorly.
by redpezrocket on Mar 29, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. I think that not playing full bore is equivalent to not putting in the required effort to win a game. Maybe you’re right, maybe it is beneficial to do that for half the season. But it just seems so wrong.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
But that only makes sense if you need to go 82-0 to qualify for the playoffs.Half the league makes it. As long as you’re in that half, it makes sense to keep something in reserve for when it really matters. If you can win a game without expending 100% energy, the only downside I see to that is possibly developing bad habits. If you’re aware of that, it’s not incredibly dangerous.
In a perfect world, you’d expend 100% energy for 82 regular season and 16 post-season games. In reality that’s not how it works, and seeing as how I do not have my name on the cup, and I assume you don’t either (but if you do, congratulations) I would defer to the plan crafted by the professional athletes and coaches.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno, again maybe you’re right. It’s a long season and maybe it’s stupid to not half-a** it half the season if you know you’re going to make the playoffs anyway. Maybe the season shouldn’t be 82 games then.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Some teams do need 82 games to make it though. Look at Philly last year, or Pitt the year before. I have no problem with the length of the season. This isn’t PeeWee where I tell the kids “every single game matters and every single shift matters.” Ideally that’s the philosophy to take, but it’s just not physically practical to perform at that level for 9 months. If you have to choose a subset of the season to embody it, I pick the set that determines who wins the cup, not just who has the best record.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I also think we’re differing slightly on our estimation of effort. You seem to believe (and correct me if I’m wrong) that anything less than 100% — say 85% or 90% — is half-assing it. Which I disagree with. If they are going out and playing bored, or dogging it, or not checking (example — Semin for 75% of his shifts), yeah, that’s bad. But the difference as someone posted below of blocking 6 shots or 7 shots in a game against Columbus in November, or whether to crash into your own end-boards to save the icing on a game you’re winning by 4 in January — those don’t seem like “half-assing it” to me. They’re just conservative plays, and smart in the long run.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I guess half-assing it would technically be 50%. So they were 90%-assing it. :)
In any event, even if it is a good idea to pull back a little bit on the effort, I don’t think that was any broad overarching strategy on the part of the Capitals.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think there was a banner in the locker room saying “Eh, we’ll work hard in April.” I think it was probably entirely unspoken amongst the team because no one wants to be the guy who admits he isn’t giving 100%. But I don’t think Ovechkin was figured out by defenders all year and suddenly learned a new trick. I think he wasn’t giving it his all. Same with Backstrom.
I think everyone knows now is the time to pick it up, and I think it’s fortunate insurance that Arnott is here to crack the whip.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the season shouldn’t be 82 games then.
This I agree with. I know it’s a non-starter b/c it makes money for the league. But a 40 or even 60 game season would be so much more interesting to me, b/c each game is worth so much more.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Because I’d rather just make sure we win enough games to get into the playoffs and are ramping up at the right time. Or, conversely, you could expend 100% every night of the regular season, win the President’s Trophy, set records for scoring and fawn over each other’s stats, and get knocked out in the first round.
We tried that, let’s try something different.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
We got unlucky last year. An 8 seed wins 26.2% of the time in the first round. Let’s not go overboard and say the Caps weren’t built for the playoffs. Small sample size.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Sharks did it for years before that. I’m not saying an 8 never wins, but I also think the Caps could have won that series if they approached it differently, even with a strong goalie in Halak and a dismal PP performance.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Stuff happens in hockey. Sometimes the best team doesn’t win. That’s my personal opinion. I think the 2009-10 Caps were well-equipped to win the cup.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree. I don’t want to engender this debate again which occupied us for months over the summer, but I think the Caps were well equipped last year and, had they gotten past Halak, would have taken the Cup.
My only concern was that Halak wasn’t as much of a problem as the Habs’ defense.
The Caps certainly could have won the Cup last year, but they’d have had to play a lot better than they did against Montreal. They weren’t winning the battles in front of the net you have to win in order to win playoff games/series.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I think they had a huge number of career years and over-performances where they were playing better than the sum of their parts. I think the power play was unsustainable, and the system masked flaws in their game that became very evident when the scoring dropped off. I thoroughly enjoyed watching them play last year, but I don’t think that they were the best team in that playoff series. I think Montreal outworked and outplayed them, and then they went on and did it to the Pens, too, so it’s not like the Caps were clearly superior and just flopped.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
No way Montreal outworked them in that series. Didn’t we double their shots on goal in most games? I will enver agree with that.
I don’t accept that Halak was the sole reason they won Games 5 – 7 to come back from a 3-1 deficit. So many chances to put it away, and we didn’t get the result. I guess it depends on how you define “outworked” — we might have “wanted” it more, but we didn’t do what was necessary to get the result.
Hell, let Hendricks (obviously he wasn’t here, but Brads or Chimmer would work, too) run the goalie. If it’s that desperate, and Halak is gold, get him off his game. Take the 2, or even a game, if it wins the series. That was the sacrifice I didn’t see. Instead, everyone just kept pressing harder and harder, taking desperation shots and forcing it, instead of changing the style of play.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Our SOG stat in that series was incredibly misleading, IMO. The Caps were certainly the better team, but in a few of those games did not create enough scoring chances to win.
Firing a puck from the blue line without a screen is technically a SOG, but it doesn’t help you win very many games.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
The Caps were certainly the better team, but in a few of those games did not create enough scoring chances to win.
It should have been, do note.
If the Caps really have been saving themselves for the playoffs, well, I hope it shows up in scoring chances and Corsi. (related: predictive power of last x games before playoffs)
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by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The Habs concerned me prior to that series because of their defensive experience. And it showed. Halak did a great job with rebound control, but the Caps rarely forced him to stand on his head.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
Umm, really? Game 6?
In one of those BtN pieces on Caps-Habs, the Habs’ scoring chance tracker writes that he and some of his readers have pretty much been commenting “wtf are the Habs doing???”, things like intentionally keeping the puck below your defensive blue line as part of the system. They didn’t allow odd-man rushes, but allowed everything else, in both quantity and quality.
I wonder if AO and 19 felt like they’d run out of gas by the end of the series. It didn’t really look like it. I don’t remember.
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by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm, really? Game 6?
Keeping in mind that these games took place almost a year ago, my recollection is being frustrated with the kinds of shots the Caps were being forced to take more than the saves Halak was making.
I never remember having a “tip your cap to the better guy” moment like I’ve had watching someone like Hasak or Ryan Miller.
I remember thinking Halak was good but the Habs defense was even better.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I remember asking myself several times, “how does that not go in?”
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And I remember asking myself constantly: “how are we once again shooting from the ten feet inside the blue line with no screen?”
There is no doubt that Halak was good. But honestly I think guys like Gorges were even better.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
Nicky summed it up best in his postgame interview after the Flyers’ loss: “Sometimes this game isn’t fair.” (quoted from memory)
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 29, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps dominated everyone but Halak. Hot goaltenders are like kryptonite to any hockey team, no matter what style of play.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The Habs defense wasn’t dominated by anyone. They blocked good shots left and right.
IMO the SOG stats were padded by the Caps taking the mediocre shots the Habs were willing to give them.
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It’s one of the reasons bounces, inches, and good breaks are infinitely harder to come by come playoff time.
I thought the inches we need are everywhere around us?
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by Scott in Shaw on Mar 29, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you know they are the difference between winning and losing?
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I play soccer and most nights it’s impossible for me to not give it my all. However, I think about things like long-term damage to the old noggin’ that comes from repeatedly putting my head under long free kicks by the goalie. So in some late-regular-season games before our playoffs start I might just try to trap the ball with my thigh or even let it bounce first instead of heading it. That means it becomes a 50-50 ball instead of a clearance to the side or up to our forwards. It won’t single-handedly change the game but there are plenty of nearly unnoticeable ways to save yourself for the postseason that might add up to a goal here or a goal there. Personally, I hope the Caps have not been destroying their bodies to win meaningless games against Ottawa. And do I think they can change that in an instant in the postseason? Absolutely.
Why put off 'til tomorrow what you can put off 'til the day after tomorrow?
I think the general sense is that “pacing themselves” means playing less than 100% for stretches of the season. Its a long season, and especially with the number of minutes 8 and 19 play, going 100% for 82 games will leave you beat up by April.
Were they pacing themselves? I have no idea. But I’m sure actually sitting down for a few games and letting their injuries heal will prove beneficial this April.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Mar 29, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m all for letting them heal from injuries. I think that’s a different situation than not giving 100% during games.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there is a way you need to conduct yourselves in situations like the NHL and NBA, where you have a lengthy schedule. Nobody is advising half-assing it, but if you play every game like it’s Game 7 of the SC finals you don’t stand a chance to have anything left in April and May.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I mean, not to pick on you, but do you give 100% every day at work? I know I have periods of down time where I conserve energy and put in enough effort to be successful, but not the over-the-top peak performance I’m capable of. Then there are other times where I need to be superhuman, and I draw on the reserves I have when they’re needed.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It may not even be giving 100% vs 90%. In Game 56, I don’t want AO sliding to block a shot with the other team down a goal, having pulled the goalie. In Game 7 of a series, I do.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
But let’s say the Caps had in fact let off the throttle a little bit throughout the regular season. How does that positively impact their playoff chances? Less injuries? The Caps haven’t been particularly healthy over the last 10 games. More energy during the playoffs? It didn’t look like the Caps were physically tired against Montreal last year.
I fully understand why they might have let off the gas. I just don’t see why we should be celebrating the notion, if that’s what they did.
by Kolzilla on Mar 29, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I fully understand why they might have let off the gas. I just don’t see why we should be celebrating the notion, if that’s what they did.
I’m at this point, but I’m trying to be optimistic. If anything, Chicago, from what I’ve seen, got better as the season wore along last year, but weren’t the same dominant team in the playoffs as they were in the regular season (I think outplayed by both Vancouver and even Philadelphia).
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It means you don’t pour everything you’ve got into every game in the regular season.
It means that you end up with, say, 103 points versus 113.
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Didn’t they have to climb back into the playoff race last year? Part of that was injuries (a yearly refrain in Detroit), but it’s not like they coast wire-to-wire every year.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
True but I also don’t hear stories coming out of Detroit about how the players would rather pace themselves than have to suffer the horrible fate of putting forth an honest effort every night. This seems to be a strictly Washington phenomenon.
Ah, I still think we’re approaching this from two disparate sides.
There are some people saying anything less than 100% is “not an honest effort”/“half-assing it”. I mean, that’s (ambiguous your) opinion, I can’t say it’s wrong.
My thought is that you do enough to get in to the playoffs, that’s not a bad thing. I guess it deprives the fans of some absolute concept of dedication that they might witness in the regular season? I’ll trade a year of goal scoring records and point streaks for a Cup any day.
If there was just one model that worked for winning a Cup, every team would try and execute it. I’m not saying Detroit vocalizes or even subscribes to the “pacing it” system. If the Caps do, however, it might work better for them than “go balls to the wall for 98 games”.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If they have been playing possum, to an extent, that’s fine. All of this can also be summed up in three words: we’ll find out.
What was Ovie’s line? “Wait and see…”
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there’s a distinction between “honest effort” and “all out effort”. I don’t work 100 hours a week as a regular practice; but I have from time to time, in crucial times in my career, and probably will again. Just an example.
What TEB appears to be saying is this: last year the Caps put in six months of 80-hour weeks, and then had nothing left when the playoffs came. This year, the Caps have put in six months of 40-hour weeks in the hopes that they will have the capacity for 2 months of 100-hour weeks in the playoffs.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
I concur with this completely.
(Also in the middle of a 100-hour week).
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
As for the Wings, I would say yes. They know when it counts. They play to win in the regular season, but I doubt they throw everything out there during every game.
Pittsburgh definitely had plenty in the tank when they won their Cup; they spent the first several months of that year going through the motions.
Can’t really speak to Chicago, though.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Over the last 10-15 years the Wings have usually been more talented than just about everybody else in the sport. They have handled themselves in a professional manner – play at a high level each night out, but don’t treat each game like it’s your last.
The result is they usually end up with 105+ points and are still ready to go come April.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I agree with this. They racked up alot of points in November, and played 500 from Dec-Feb.
I dont think an 8 game slid was in the plan, But if you look at what our line-up at the time along with a change in the system, I can see why they did go on an 8 game slid.
I also think they felt , They didnt need to come back against teams in Dec-Feb like did last year and years before.
They knew they were good for a spot in the playoffs. Once they got better NHL talent on the roster, Ovie and Nick playing better. We have a team that has so far gone 11-2 this month.
I realize this is an opinion piece, but I feel like TEB is sometimes a little loose with the grand definitive pronouncements. A few months ago, I seem to recall him definitively concluding that Ovechkin’s problem was that defenses had figured him out and he wasn’t adapting his game. Now he concludes that Ovechkin and Backstrom have in fact been pacing themselves all along.
Yeah, this is the kind of 20-20 hindsight that annoys me. Weren’t we also ripping on the Caps weeks ago for not even making an effort during the games, and wringing our hands that they might miss the playoffs because of it? And now it was a genius strategy to save themselves for the playoffs? I mean, c’mon.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not buying what Tarik is selling, here. This phrase in particular:
folks inside and outside of Kettler Capitals Iceplex have suspected
takes this story away from reporting and puts it in the territory of finding facts that corroborate an opinion. Especially Tarik’s personal opinion, as he attempts to make a Caps’ beat reporter comeback.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
ESPN or NHL.com had a story on Ovie as well, I will have to find it. But Ovie did say in that interview, “Just watch and see” that article came out before the deadline so I want to say it was late Jan or early Feb.
I would expect Ovie to say that no matter what the situation.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t buy it either. No way an 8 game losing streak occurs to a team that has the capability to turn it on and play better.
System change, maybe some unreported injuries to Ovie and Backstrom, anemic powerplay, and a lost confidence until new players re-sparked it at the deadline – just as speculative, but certainly just as plausible.
Now the last two years – when they took off 2 periods only to score 2-3 goals in the third and beat lesser teams – that was pacing themselves.
. . . especially not an 8-game lossing streak that is covered on national TV which makes them look silly and deflated and their coach look like an ice-cream-seeking stooge.
I remembered the panicked look on Boudreau’s face and in his voice as he addressed the locker room during the losing streak on HBO 24/7. That was not the demeanor of a man strategically saving his team for the playoffs.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody in the organization was expecting an 8 game losing streak, But it’s hard to not to think they were pacing themselves.
The 8 game losing streak to me was due to lack of scoring, talent and change of system.
As was January and February. I don’t know where it suddenly morphs into genius strategy to save the team for the playoffs.
by Steve418290 on Mar 29, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure it wasn’t a strategy, but more of general hangover feeling after last year’s playoffs that the regular season isn’t worth killing yourself over. The fact that this March has been one of the best in franchise history seems to indicate that now that playoffs are within sight, the entire team has kicked it into a higher gear.
The 8 game losing streak to me was due to lack of scoring, talent and change of system.
And bad luck. 5 of the loses were by one goal, with one coming in OT and one via SO. The Caps weren’t playing great during that stretch, but there weren’t getting any bounces, either.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
So true. That third period in the Bruins game in which they outshot them 22 or thereabouts to 2. That was a game they desperately wanted to win.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 29, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
For some reason that game really sticks out in my mind. The Caps could have not have been more dominated in the first period and were lucky not to be down five or six goals.
But by the third period the roles were 180 degrees reversed and it was only a few really nice saves by Thomas that kept the game from going to OT.
Seeing that game’s locker room speech during 24/7 was one of my favorite moments from the entire series.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
That game sticks out in my mind too. Loved Knuble before. Loved him even more after his “this isn’t going to be another one of those laughers” speech.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 29, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree as well. Also the game against the Ducks, The Caps could have and should have been up at least 4-5 goals. Getzlaf robbed Brooks of a goal. Ovie hit the post on a breakaway, And I think somebody else hit a post.
Ducks tie it in the 3rd and then win in OT.
The game against Toronto was horrible, They blew a lead that they shouldnt have and then lost in the SO.
Not to defend Tarik, but this wasn’t a “news” story. This was his personal blog so he’s entitled to interject his own opinion into the narrative. And he did say last summer when he left the Caps assignment that he would be returning for the playoffs so I don’t see this as trying to make a comeback.
Still, it’s the way he lays it up, suggesting that there’s an overwhelming mountain of evidence which can only lead us to conclude, well, his conclusion. I disagree with that notion, so I question the article itself.
That’s my problem with it, and I feel like it applies to a lot of his opinion stuff. He makes big pronouncements that he doesn’t really support all that well.
I do admit that my feelings about his opinion pieces may be a carryover from how I felt about his stuff when he was the beat writer, when it seemed to me he would often slip in his personal opinions as “fact.”
suggesting that there’s an overwhelming mountain of evidence which can only lead us to conclude, well, his conclusion.
When does he suggest there’s an “overwhelming mountain of evidence”?
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
His point with the “inside and out” line is just that there are people who work for the team and people who cover the team who have come to the same conclusion. That’s significant in that it isn’t just a bunch of media schlubs guessing.
I don’t see any line speaking to a mountain of evidence
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
He’s not the only one, though. I recall Elliotte Friedman having a quotation from Jim Rutherford to the same effect about Ovechkin.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 29, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Oddly enough with Ovi I think it might be more conscious. Not that he’s not trying as hard but I think before he was partially fueled by individual stats and making the numbers pretty – this year it doesn’t seem to bother him as much that he’s not scoring as many goals or whatever. And you know how we bitch about him not having other moves, getting stopped by the D every time because he’s so predictable? Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the kind of thing he’s holding back for the postseason…
Obviously we saw him during the Rangers game – he cares if they win or lose, he showed that, but there’s a difference between taking it down a gear and not even showing up. And to some extent pride is a motivator; you don’t want to lose 8 straight, particularly when it feels like nothing is going right.
Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.
I remember at the begining of the season, Alot of players were saying we have to play 82 games to get where we want to get to and make a statement.
In prior years it was, “We want to win the Divsion” We want to be first in the conference" “We want to be first in the league”
This year it seemed like they weren’t looking forward to 82 games.
No different than a closer/stretch runner in a race. Do what you need to maintain, but finish strong. It’s not black and white like they weren’t giving full effort earlier and they are now. Considering the changes they’ve implemented and the changes in personnel (from trades to injuries), I think they’ve weathered the regular season well and are primed to deliver that finishing kick. Or at least I hope.
Considering the changes they’ve implemented and the changes in personnel (from trades to injuries)
That’s an excellent point. This is a team that perhaps had it in neutral for awhile but also had to overcome all of the changes in style and personnel…so it certainly wasn’t going to be pretty.
What a strange season this has been. I really hope the big twist ending is the Caps winning the Cup.
Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.
by Becca H on Mar 29, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bourne just posted something related to this on Puck Daddy
As a team, it’s fantastic to be in that must-win mode a few games prior to playoffs for the sake of adjusting to the pressure and the inevitably ramped-up tempo. It’s always tough to flip the switch from “mid-season effort” to “throw-your-body-in-front-of-a-semi-truck-if-it-means-stopping-a-goal mode” when it’s still the regular season
and
Shifting into that mode early provides these teams with an advantage after the regular season – suddenly you find yourself in round one, comfortable with the intensity and pressure, and your opponent feels like he walked into a bee’s nest while covered in honey. You know what you’re walking into before the game because you know how your team needs to come out of the gates – if that pace gets matched, you’re in for a war, and if it doesn’t, your opponent is in for a steamroller session.
Teams that haven’t had to flip that switch (those pretty little top seeds) are often caught off guard by the slap-in-the-face reminder of how crazy playoff hockey truly is. It’s not that guys don’t try the rest of the year, it’s that they occasionally make the “safe” decision (“maybe I’ll stay standing and hope this puck hits my shinpads instead of tossing my face in front of that potential one-timer”).
Not anymore, brutha.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
Except that the numbers don’t bear that out.
I like Bourne’s pieces, but this is one of the old hockey nostrums that doesn’t appear to hold water.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Ok. So what is the alternative? Tell the guys, “Well, the R^2 doesn’t indicate significant correlation, so don’t start working harder until Round 1 starts”?
Hockey’s one of the most mental games around. Even if the last 5-10 games of the year don’t predict playoff performance, I’d rather be playing well in the second half of the year than the first. There are cherry-picked examples of each, but Pitt 2009, Chicago 2010, Philly 2010, etc…
I guess I agree that not every team that plays well to end the regular season will succeed in the playoffs, but how many successful playoff teams were performing poorly at the end of the regular season?
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
How you play your last 35 (or so) games definitely makes a difference. So I’m right with you, it’s a lot better to be hot in the second half than not.
It’s just that having to fight for your life over your last, say, 10-15 games does not correlate with first round success, like what Bourne seems to be saying.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
It’s just that having to fight for your life over your last, say, 10-15 games does not correlate with first round success, like what Bourne seems to be saying.
Bourne and seemingly every other journalist who takes that as a postulate.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think that’s what they’re saying. They’re saying it takes the other team longer to adjust – whether they get it or not before they’re bounced out of the playoffs is the determining factor.
For example, see the Caps two years ago against the Rangers. They went down 3-1 to a 7 seed. There was no reason for that to happen other than that the Rangers were ready to go for the playoffs (and had been for awhile) and the Caps weren’t.
Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.
The Caps had been playing playoff-style hockey for two months the year prior to that and still looked like they had trouble figuring it out when Philly came knocking. I think there’s a lot of luck in small samples of hockey and that people try to make sense out of it. Some of their explanations are more dubious than others, and I don’t think this one is all that good.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 29, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
So what is the alternative? Tell the guys, "Well, the R^2 doesn’t indicate significant correlation, so don’t start working harder until Round 1 starts"?
There doesn’t have to be any alternative. I think the more important thing to note is that it’s not a death sentence if the Caps, or any other team, limp into the playoffs (well, unless it’s literal limping, which could pose a bit of a problem). Nor is it a huge advantage to go into the playoffs on a roll. I think you just want to have your players ready, almost there, and be playing your system.
Philadelphia 2010?
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
Behindthenet quick link to QoC/QoT/Corsi/PDO/Zonestarts
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Mar 29, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I mis-remembered Philly as getting hot towards the end of the regular season last year. They were solid in Jan/Feb, Leighton went out, they fell off a bit, won the shoot-out to make it in, then went on their run.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 29, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
And the year before that, PIT was hot as blazes down the stretch, then proceeded to fall into three straight 0-2 holes while winning all those series.
It all adds up to this: if you’re hot in the last few games, you might win and you might not. Same thing goes with being cold.
If you’ve been good for the last 35-ish games, your chances of winning are better.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
I agree. Because it means the team is in a pretty good groove despite a few ebbs and flows. The players’ have confidence in the system as well as in their game style and rhythm.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 29, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Catagories of Pacing
It seems there are probably several ways in which a team or a player can “pace themselves” over the course of the year, and which way you do it matters a great deal. (Apologies if some of this got covered above, but I thought it was worth clarifying further, if only for my own benefit.) Here are at least two:
1) Don’t get as fired up for every game, but fulfill your responsibilities on ice. This means roughly being in the right position, but maybe not having the energy level to win as many board battles as you could.
2) Half-ass your on-ice responsibilities to conserve energy. Pacing yourself in this way probably entails pacing yourself in the first way as well.
The first way of pacing yourself seems to be more desirable, and I’d like to think if the Caps are pacing themselves, this is what they’ve been doing. But I really don’t see them as a team putting any less into the regular season than they were last year, when they were more likely to slack off defensively and have the forwards waiting for a quick breakout. Maybe they’re putting in less effort on the forecheck as a team, but that might just reflect their strategic changes.
Where I feel like I have noticed pacing is in the star players. The first kind of pacing seems to describe Nicky to a T; to my untrained eye, he’s been pretty responsible, he just hasn’t had the compete level that he did last year. And the second kind of pacing seems to describe Ovie. Frankly, I’ve been embarrassed at times watching Ovie coast around on the backcheck or aimlessly through the neutral zone; there’s no way he’s been meeting his responsibilities. And he certainly doesn’t have the fire he did (so he’s saddled with both forms). I’ve been worried the whole season about the consequences of having a visibly lazy captain, and I still worry about how a season filled with irresponsible play will cash out in the playoffs. I guess we’ll have to see. Semin, well…
Anyway, I mostly just wanted to point out that easing off the throttle admits of different forms to see if anyone disagreed with these observations.
by Rainbow, Kitty, Beer on Mar 29, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t think they consciously paced themselves, if a pro team can even do that. It probably takes 80 games to settle into the new defensive system, to find out who’s buying into it and who isn’t.
As someone posted earlier, and should be rec’d by more people, we really won’t know until their last playoff game.
"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH
Theme Warning
From CSN Philly, via Puck Daddy, seems the Caps aren’t the only ones talking about this …
• Sean O’Donnell on the state of the Philadelphia Flyers as they prepare for the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, with the conference lead on the line: “After going to the Final last year, after getting the great start we had this year, some guys have kind of thought, perhaps not a conscious thing, but they’re thinking ’let’s save it’ because the playoffs are a two-month grind to win the Cup. … But now it’s time. We really need to start winning. We need a nice run here to make sure that come Game 1 in the playoffs, we’re ready and this Pittsburgh game is a great test for us.” [CSN Philly]
We’ve got to many heroes. We need some monsters.
- The Jade Donkey
When I read that all I can think of is...
“I would have bet my house they wouldn’t have beaten us three games in a row and that we would have scored only three goals on nearly 140 shots."
Boudreau’s response when the Caps couldn’t “flip the switch”
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