A Closer Look at Michal Neuvirth

by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 1:00 PM EDT

Five weeks ago we posted about who the Caps playoff goalie should be, opining that Semyon Varlamov deserved the nod as #1 starter based on the first 57 games. As of today, the question on whom the Caps Game 1 playoff starter still hasn't cleared up, but it's no longer Varlamov in the driver's seat. Rather, it's Michal Neuvirth, the Czech rookie who has received 55% of the team's minutes in net. Before we discuss Neuvirth in more detail let's look at the Caps goalie stats through Tuesday's Philadelphia game.

	GP	W	L	O	GAA	MIN	SV%	AG	EG	Δ Goals	Δ G/60
Braden Holtby	13	9	2	2	1.95	667	0.930	22	27.9	-5.9	-0.52
Semyon Varlamov	24	10	8	4	2.27	1377	0.923	52	61.6	-9.6	-0.42
Michal Neuvirth	44	24	11	4	2.46	2441	0.915	100	111.0	-11.0	-0.22

AG - Actual Goals Against, EG - Expected Goals Against

The Caps have undoubtedly received above-average goaltending this season, with the team's trio of young goaltenders preserving over 25 goals when compared to league-wide shooting percentages by distance. Surprisingly (to some of you, at least), it's Braden Holtby who has had the biggest impact on games, preserving 0.52 goals per game for his team. However, Holtby hasn't faced the stiffest competition. Plus, he may be a bit too green to throw into the cauldron of the Stanley Cup playoffs. So despite having the largest per-game impact as a goalie, Bruce Boudreau's spring plans for Holtby are to chase the Calder Cup, not Lord Stanley's.

Semyon Varlamov also has quality stats, sporting an above-average 0.923 save percentage and preserving an impressive 0.42 goals per game. However, his injury situation has kept him on the shelf for the past several weeks. Unless he comes back and regains full form immediately, it's unlikely to expect him to be named the Game 1 starter.

By default, we're left with Michal Neuvirth, a player whom large numbers of Caps Nation already consider the #1 starter. Although clearly third on the list in terms of statistical impressiveness, Neuvirth has had himself a fine rookie campaign, receiving a bulk of the team's starts and becoming the Caps all-time rookie leader in wins. Additionally, he boasts a very impressive playoff pedigree at lower levels that should help him better adjust to NHL playoff hockey. If the playoffs started today, the nod would most certainly go to Neuvirth.

The question is: can Neuvy lead the Caps to the promised land? The answer depends on which Neuvirth we see in the playoffs. Let's take a closer look at his stats, segmenting his season into three chunks.

Segment	GP	W	L	O	GAA	MIN	SV%	AG	EG	Δ Goals	Δ G/60
First 11 Games: Oct 8-Oct 30	11	7	3	0	2.14	566	0.929	20	25.4	-5.4	-0.57
Middle 23 Games: Nov 3-Feb 17	23	10	6	4	2.69	1316	0.903	59	55.8	+3.2	+0.14
Last 10 Games: Feb 21-Mar 22	10	6	3	0	2.22	494	0.926	21	29.8	-8.8	-1.07

As you can see, the early season Neuvirth and recent Neuvirth is an impact goalie, able to dominate games, post impressive save percentages and preserve goals. But the Neuvirth of the middle part of the season was pedestrian, sporting numbers expected from a back-up goalie. So who is the real Neuvirth? Is he a middling goalie that has played above his head during two hot streaks? Or is he a dominating goalie who simply went through through an extended mid-season slump?

The answer is that it's too early in his career to know for certain. But if Neuvirth can channel the latter, the Caps will be poised to make a very deep run in this year's playoffs.

And if he can't, there's always Semyon Varlamov.

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Comments

I appreciate the stat dump and it is very interesting to see, but it seems like so much of this can be attributed to the team as well. There is no doubt his numbers are far worse in the middle stretch of games, but the unclear factor is how much are the numbers skewed by the teams poor play vs. the team looking poor due to Neuvy behind them. Will be interesting to see how this plays out the rest of the year and what happens come playoffs. I think Neuvy should be starting right now but a lot could change my mind before then. These next few weeks can’t pass soon enough.

"Ovechkin is as subtle as a shot of vodka."

by i12swim on Mar 25, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

I was going to make this very same comment. Through the middle of the season, where Neuvirth has the worst stats the Caps were awful. They were not playing like a playoff caliber team, and their record and stats reflected that. Personally, I think Neuvirth’s true ability is somewhere in between his bookend stats and the middle stats.

I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."

by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 25, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

ability is somewhere in between

You mean his ability this season is reflected in his overall season stats average?

by Icebat on Mar 25, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

This is probably a cop out but my opinion is he is a goalie that will keep you in almost every game, but has the ability to absolutely stand on his head a steal a few games. As he showed by getting the consecutive shut-outs in game 6-7 of one the Calder playoff series last year he has the ability to take over but most of the time I would say he is about where his season stats are.

"Ovechkin is as subtle as a shot of vodka."

by i12swim on Mar 25, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

But aren’t “expected saves” expected saves no matter how the team is playing? I’ll obviously concede the point as to the boxcar stats, but you can’t ignore that during that middle portion, he was worse than would be expected, right?

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I definitely agree. But I don’t think that was all on him. There’s the ever present issue of shot quality. I stand with F&B on the stats debate. Through the first half of the season, during both good and bad runs, there were stretches where I didn’t think stats accurately reflected the play of Neuvirth. (or the Caps for that matter).

I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."

by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 25, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I don’t think he was worse that would be expected. And this is where reality gets lost in the jumble of numbers. During the period when the team wasn’t playing well, or when they were readjusting their style and gameplay, the goalie suffered from miscues and breakdowns. As a team plays more poorly, sentiment runs through the locker room, and this affects the way people respond, think, and behave. Neuvirth’s results were on par with the teams tribulations. He played well at times, middling at others. I don’t think its a reflection of his ability, so much as a reflection of the collective team psyche at the time.
His play over the course of the season has been pretty impressive for 1) just a young guy, 2) a young guy that has been ‘behind’ Varly in the depth chart and without an older statesman to learn from. (Being Brodeurs backup doesn’t make you better, obviously, but it offers you the chance to learn from someone who is at the top of his field.)
Neuvirth should start the playoffs because he’s the Horse they rode in on, and its only fair to let him have his chance because he earned it.
So far, BB’s goalie intuition in the playoffs hasn’t resulted in too much. Kolzig should have gotten the game 7, Theo was shamed and we still lost… just saying. At least Neuvirth has some championships under his belt. And he was pretty dazzling in those.

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by The Jade Donkey on Mar 25, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

His play over the course of the season has been pretty impressive for 1) just a young guy, 2) a young guy that has been ‘behind’ Varly in the depth chart and without an older statesman to learn from.

Totally agree.

But a shot from 25 feet is a shot from 25 feet regardless of other factors.

Also, FWIW, this post isn’t meant as a plea to start one guy or the other or as evidence as to my preference (which, if I’m not mistaken, I’ve yet to declare).

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. This is not a “start Varly” or “start Neuvy” post. This is just an overall look at the goaltending plus a deeper dive in to Neuvy’s numbers. There have been two Neuvy’s this year, and the Caps playoff success may indeed depend on which Neuvy shows up.

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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately, that dive wasn’t too deep. That last bit about Neuvirth’s season probably could have been an in-depth post by itself. It’s one thing to glance at the numbers; it’s another thing to analyze what caused those numbers and what they indicate.

by Forsch31 on Mar 25, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s no smoking gun here. There simply isn’t enough data on Neuvy’s body of work to draw definite conclusions about “why” he played or plays better in certain situations. If I thought there were prove-able reasons behind Neuvy’s streaky play I would have tried to attack it, but the reality is that he’s a rookie and is going to be inconsistent.

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by Kareem E. on Mar 28, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve seen clear signs of “Neuvirth like symptoms”

by Dirk Dangler on Mar 25, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

But a shot from 25 feet is a shot from 25 feet regardless of other factors.

Unless it’s a 10 foot shot that the NHL records as a 25 footer.

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by Rob Parker on Mar 25, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Or it’s a shot through a screen. Or maybe it’s a flubbed shot off a broken stick.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 25, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Given that the “expectation” of the saves is derived from shot distance, you’d have to do some legwork to explain how strong a measure shot distance is of shot quality. You’d also have to address the NHL’s notoriously inaccurate shot distance measuring.

Personally, I don’t think shot distance is a particularly robust measurement for shot quality.

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by Rob Parker on Mar 25, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Great writeup

I personally like Neuvy least out of the 3 (and I do like all 3). It’s just Neuvy slides all around in the crease leaving much bigger areas for rebounds and deflections to find there way into the net. He needs to anchor down like the star goalies do. An example is when he slides from post to post – he extends another 12 inches out….nearly impossible to recover some times.

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by Kevin Ewoldt on Mar 25, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going to have to disagree with you here. To my eyes, Neuvy is very quiet in the crease and is a master of positioning himself effectively. Philly was, again, to me, by far his worst game in recent memory as far as positioning went and I’m not going to read too much into it.

Varly has improved immensely in this area, but he’s still the more “spastic” of the goalie, more likely to over-commit and find himself out of position.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Varlamov definitely swims in the crease the most, and is the most active goalie of the three. Neuvirth usually has a lot better rebound control and movement than in the Philly game, but he was coming off of injury, so I am willing to chalk that one up to rust.

I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."

by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 25, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

the whole Caps team just looked out of sorts for about 35 minutes of the Philly game. Which means I’m very curious to see how the team looks tonight, as well as Neuvy specifically. I’m guessing he’ll be his usual rock-solid ice water calm self.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I realize I’m picking nits, but .923 is a better than “above-average.” Out of 43 qualifying goalies in the the NHL that ranks sixth.

Neuvy’s .915 (19th) is above-average.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

You’re really grasping here. .923 is above-average. .915 is above-average. Are you looking for an apology because he didn’t use the adjective you would have to describe Varly’s save percentage?

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Are you looking for an apology because he didn’t use the adjective you would have to describe Varly’s save percentage?

Yes

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh. What would you have gone with? “Elite”? “Sparkling”? “Alessandra Ambrosio-esque”?

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

In my defense, I prefaced it by admitting it was nitpicking. Generally you don’t see a stat that is sixth in the league referred to as “above-average.”

By definition everything above-average is, well, above average. There are usually levels, though.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

What adjective would you like me to use to describe Varly’s SV%?

/freeformfriday

Formerly "topshelf_22304"
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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

“Legitimately” above average

by six hole on Mar 25, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

I don’t work for free ;)

In all seriousness I hope you didn’t take my douchey comment personally. Your post was really well-written and had some numbers I hadn’t thought about before.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

No worries, I take no offense. Besides, after writing for Box Seats I’ve grown some thick, thick skin.

Thanks for the compliments.

Formerly "topshelf_22304"
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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus Becca’s far more offensive on internal Rink emails than any of our commenters could ever be.

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I blame it on too many bottles of Brooks Laich’s sweat.

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

by Bald Pollack on Mar 25, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I blame it on too many bottles of Brooks Laich’s sweat.

Yowza. Glad we’re a few hours past lunch, lol

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Pfft, too many is a subjective phrase.

Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.

by Becca H on Mar 25, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Could ever be? Or have ever chosen to be?

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by Rob Parker on Mar 25, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Could ever be and still be permitted to post comments on the site.

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

receiving a bulk of the team’s starts and leading NHL rookies in win

dont you mean leading the CAPS franchise in rookie wins?

Bob and Crawford have more wins than neuvy

by Brainumbc on Mar 25, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

thanks!

Formerly "topshelf_22304"
The "Other" Box Seats Blogger

by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Very interesting write up, thank you for taking the time to do it.

One small thing, and it may be my brain failing, but it looks like the overall AG is incorrect for Neuvy, which is skewing the rest of the row a bit. Adding up the AG col in the second tab I get 102, not 100. Again, my brain may just be going on vacation too.

by helo29 on Mar 25, 2011 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

You’re right. Thanks for pointing this out. Unlke Excel, all data in these HTML tables have to be manually entered as opposed to automatically calculated. A pain in the butt and occasionally error-prone.

I made the changes to the EG as you can see now. The EG for the First 11 Games went from -0.47 to -0.57 while the Last 10 games went from -0.95 to -1.07. Shouldn’t change any conclusions, but I appreciate you follwing up!

Formerly "topshelf_22304"
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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Neuvy’s record vs top 10 teams : 4W/6L/2OTL, .908 SV%, 2.64 GAA. His record against bottom 10 teams: 13/2/1, 1.97, .934.
Against top 10 teams, Varly is 1/2/1, .920, 2.5. Against bottom 10, he is 6/4/0, .919, 2.39. Statistically, Varly is the better option here, but his sample size is ridiculously small, IMO.
Neuvy has fattened his record against lower echelon teams, to be sure. But I dont know how much it says about how he will fare in a potential 7 game series vs a single opponent.
This is where Washington’s team defensive focus (top 5 GAA), offensive weapons, improved PK, etc can bolster a young goalie’s confidence.

All is not told on the stat sheet: momentum and the way a goalie can respond in the clutch can go a long way.

by S h a g g y on Mar 25, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

I’d also add that it’s hard to make conclusions on those stats because a lot depends on how a particular team is playing at the time. For example, Neuvy has two fairly recent wins against the Isles but they have the 2nd best record in the East since Jan 1 (or the ASB, not sure). And he has wins against Atlanta early in the season, but they were a far different team then as opposed to now. Maybe it evens out, not sure, but I have my doubts.

by Dirk Dangler on Mar 25, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Two if not three of Neuvy/Varly/Holtby will get multiple starts in the playoffs. You heard it here.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

I hope you’re wrong, only because it will mean one of the guys was so awesome they couldn’t take him out of the lineup.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Holtby in the postseason would mean that either a goalie was injured, or BB lost faith in both Neuvy and Varly.

by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 25, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

One goalie will be injured (even if minor) and Holtby has been good enough that BB does not have to completely lose faith in either Neuvy or Varly. We have three, someone will get it done.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Holtby has been good enough that BB does not have to completely lose faith in either Neuvy or Varly.

Not sure if I buy that. Holby’s basically going on one nice streak when the whole team was playing awesome. Varly’s got three SC playoff series under his belt and Neuvy’s minor league bad-assness is well-documented.

It will take an injury for Holtby to get on the Caps playoff bench.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

It will take an injury for Holtby to get on the Caps playoff bench.

I just said that yo! :-)

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay. Your referencing BB’s losing faith in Neuvy/Varly was what confused me.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m operating under a couple assumptions.

1) Either Varly or Neuvy will tweak something.
2) Whichever one is not injured will have a game, that while not necessarily hideous, makes BB think, “hey, why not give Holtby a start and see what happens”.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

In that situation I tend to agree, though if the back-up is Holtby rather than Varly/Neuvy the leash for the starter will be much, much longer.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Don’t sleep on Holtby…he’s got “onions!”

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Nothing to do with my opinion. That’s just how I think BB will handle it.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh and um….that the Caps don’t get bounced in round 1. That old assumption…

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Or because the Caps didn’t play enough games to give them all multiple starts…

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 25, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The only way Holtby gets an appearance in the post-season is because of injury.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Mar 25, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I just thought I’d make sure that was the umpteeth time it was said here :)

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by ThePeerless on Mar 25, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

…the early season Neuvirth and recent Neuvirth is an impact goalie, able to dominate games, post impressive save percentages and preserve goals. But the Neuvirth of the middle part of the season was pedestrian, sporting numbers expected from a back-up goalie…

I think that’s a couple of ticks too far in terms of a conclusion, and here is why. The numbers also suggest (absent digging further into them) that Neuvirth is a “circumstantial” performer. Look at those three segments. In the first, he earned 14 of 20 possible standings points (70 percent), in the second 24 of 40 (60 percent), and in the last one 12 of 18 (66.7 percent). His performance might be a product of playing to the circumstances of the game. Whether high of low GAA or SV, he’s getting those 60-70 percent of available standings points.

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by ThePeerless on Mar 25, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions

those percentage apply to his decisions, not his appearances.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Mar 25, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting! I think this seems to fit with my comment below that Neuvy’s delta in expected vs. allowed goals fluctuates, while the results don’t fluctuate as much. I.e., the delta could be an effect, not a cause. When a team is playing defense well, the quality of a shot from 20 feet is lower than when it’s playing defense badly. This would skew the AG/EG analysis.

Why put off 'til tomorrow what you can put off 'til the day after tomorrow?

by LACapsFan on Mar 25, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

So what you’re saying is that the Neuvirth plays to the score, moreso than other goalies? Plausible, but not really proveable. And a bit of a dangerous game for a rookie.

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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

What in sports is really ‘proveable’? You can fairly easily disprove something, but I don’t see how you can correlate statistics in sports with so many variables.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Give me Bettman and a pair of pliers and I’ll prove to you the Crosby lottery was fixed.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Speak it Macvechkin!

-These go to eleven.

by Prongfan on Mar 25, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, a lot can be proved via stats.
- Is “Player X” a good hitter? Yes, he hits .313 and slugs .890. That’s well above average based on 100+ years of captured data.
- Is Varly a good goalie? Yes, his 0.923 SV% is above the 0.912-0.915 average. It may even be described as sterling.
- Is Tom Brady a good QB? Regrettably yes, he throws for a buttload of yards and has an above average passer rating.

Does Nuevy play to the score? Much, much harder to prove or disprove.

Formerly "topshelf_22304"
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by Kareem E. on Mar 25, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Careful on that conclusion re. Varly. He’s done well so far, when he’s played, but he needs to face a bunch more ES shots before we can be certain about him.

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 25, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, plenty of guys have had a great start and faltered into back up mode. Oh… hey there, didn’t see you over my shoulder, Andrew Raycroft.

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by Rob Parker on Mar 25, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn him leaving me with only one goalie in fantasy cause he never freaking plays.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Well if you were banking on Raycroft being one of your two starting goalies it’s not his fault if your goalie stats suck…

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 25, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

How can you assume Varlamov faces the same difficulty of shots as the average NHL goaltender? Just for the sake of argument, he could be facing 30 50 foot wristers a game which are measured with the same weight as a 10 foot slapper or a breakaway. You can’t crown Tom Brady a “good” QB because all receiving/blocking/coaching corps are not created equal (just as pitches, ballparks, and umpires are not created equal). If all other personnel were all exactly the same, you may be able to if you disregard other factors such as defense, weather, etc. Also, all throws are not created equal. A pass that is deflected and goes to a completely different receiver than intended with which he runs the entire length of a field for a touchdown, which may or not be because he is faster than everyone else, affects statistics the same way as a 3 yard dump-off screen with which the blockers/running back are in control of the QB’s stats from that point on. Is Danny Woodhead carrying that ball with a strong O-line the same as some slow FB with a makeshift O-line? Because all these statistics are never simply pure products of the human in question, they can’t be directly attributed to the performance of that individual. There are just too many external factors to lend much validity to such stats.

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by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Using the assumption that all of the events can be extreme events is prima facie ridiculous.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 25, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Those are some extreme examples, but the overarching point is that quality of teammates and other external factors that the player has no control over influences his/her statistics in large enough ways to discredit the statistics for the most part.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s an awfully strong claim for someone without any real proof.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 25, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, it seems like a relatively tame claim to me. Perhaps in other sports the influence may be of less note but in hockey it’s the vast majority of it.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s a claim that all statistics are worthless in hockey because of teammate and other effects. That’s an incredibly strong claim and I’d like to see your proof. Or rather, I suspect I’ll be waiting for a long time, because that’s not the case.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 25, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I may not be able to prove it is, but you can’t prove it isn’t. That’s my point.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 26, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s a vast body of work at Behind the Net, Objective NHL, Copper and Blue, Irreverent Oiler Fans, Hockey Analytics, and Hockey Prospectus that says otherwise. The burden of proof against that body of work is on you – their evidence and methods are clear and transparent. Where they can’t disambiguate, they straight-up tell you.

Plugging your ears, closing your eyes and singing “la-la-la-la” in the face of evidence is not an argument. The game isn’t 100% analyzed and certainly isn’t 100% analytically solvable, but there’s a lot of useful information out there. Pretending that because 100% of results aren’t explained the rest of it is invalid is unsophisticated at best and specious at worst.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 27, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Where they can’t disambiguate, they straight-up tell you that you’re an idiot.

/Hawerchuk’d

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 27, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Awesome.

First Round Exit! (Clap Clap ClapClapClap) First Round Exit!

by Rob Parker on Mar 27, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Ha, zing!

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 27, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

My argument is merely more philosophically geared than yours. If you can’t attribute something 100% to another thing, as in the case in these sports situations, then it’s not provable; simple as that. People may try to say they can but it’s just not possible.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 27, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

No, tossing out a bunch of previously explored results isn’t a philosophical difference. It’s either willful ignorance or not knowing that most outcomes are controlled by lots of variables and some gross luck. On the stat side, there’s lots of evidence. On your side, there’s an assertion that all of the stats can’t be right, with no proof provided, and chalked up to a philosophical difference. That’s weak.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Mar 27, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

not knowing that most outcomes are controlled by lots of variables and some gross luck

Honestly most of the stuff you just said flew way over my head in part cause I kind of forgot what the discussion was, but aren’t outcomes what statistics measure? I’m saying these statistics are influenced by too many variables to be completely direct results of an individual. Statistics aren’t right or wrong, they’re merely measurements.

Ah, beer. The cause of and the solution to all of life’s problems. - Homer Simpson

by jaytown99 on Mar 27, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

A couple of mildly interesting observations on the data:
(1) The last 10 games include the drubbing vs. the Rangers. If you just look at the last 8, Neuvy’s even hotter with a 0.934 SV% (won’t mention the GAA since I think it’s a worthless stat). Granted we played some pretty weak teams in there. Also, I don’t know the AG vs. EG in the last 8 games since I don’t have access to this data (I’m using Yahoo).
(2) The first 6 games of his “cold streak” were actually wins. We averaged 5 GF/G in that stretch! I believe that sometimes when teams have leads they tend to play looser and may give up more chances (ahem, Philly game). This could affect the AG/EG analysis, in that a shot’s distance is not the only thing affecting its quality. The fact that Neuvy’s delta in goals fluctuates with when we’ve generally been playing well or badly would seem to support this. Basically, I’m not sure I fully trust the AG/EG analysis

Why put off 'til tomorrow what you can put off 'til the day after tomorrow?

by LACapsFan on Mar 25, 2011 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

Of course Neuvy is awesome. Look at the photo – he even has the W next to him. That stands for winner.

by redpezrocket on Mar 25, 2011 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

If only someone could design a clever piece of clothing, perhaps a shirt . . . nah, it’s too crazy.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Never happen… unless someone with tiger blood thought about it…

Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 25, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

More to this than meets the eye?

Looking at Neuvy’s games breakdown, during his first hot streak to start the season, Neuvy was the man because Varly was hurt. Any chance his cold streak begins around the time that Varly returns and they start sharing starts? Also, was Neuvy injured himself somewhere in that cold streak? Now, during his current hot streak, Varly has once again been out with injury and Neuvy has been getting the bulk of the starts aside from the stretch he missed after getting pucked on the mask.

by cainoo7x on Mar 25, 2011 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

It’s tough on goalie win/loss columns when the team in front of them isn’t scoring like they were last year.

"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH

by hotdog88gt on Mar 25, 2011 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, those numbers aren’t all that significant to me (other than in that they show that the Caps have gotten fat on crappy teams), but the “.419” does pop. The SV% numbers here are the most interesting to me.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions