The Noon Number

by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 12:00 PM EDT in The Noon Number

.419 - Combined winning percentage for Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov against teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. In the 33 games over which that record was amassed, the Caps' top two netminders have gone 13-12-6 with a 2.64 Goals Against Average and a .908 save percentage.

Here's a look at how each of the Caps' top three backstops has fared against playoff and non-playoff opponents:

Michal Neuvirth	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Vs. Playoff Teams	21	1056	8	7	2	2.84	511	461	.902	2
Vs. Non-Playoff Teams	23	1388	16	4	2	2.16	667	617	.925	2

Semyon Varlamov	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Vs. Playoff Teams	16	896	5	5	4	2.41	428	392	.916	2
Vs. Non-Playoff Teams	8	482	5	3	0	1.99	249	233	.936	0

Braden Holtby	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Vs. Playoff Teams	7	368	5	0	2	1.79	162	151	.932	0
Vs. Non-Playoff Teams	6	308	4	2	0	2.14	152	141	.928	1

Of note, Neuvirth has won just three of 13 starts against current playoff teams since November 17 (Pittsburgh twice and Philadelphia earlier in the week), and Varlamov has just two wins in eight starts against current playoff teams since the Winter Classic (Tampa Bay and Buffalo back in February). But each man has won his last start against a current playoff team... so there's that.

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DOOM AND GLOOM!

by QuadrupleDeke on Mar 25, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions

STATS AND FACTS!

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

It could be worse

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Mar 25, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Maybe the cats should be our starting goalies.

by redpezrocket on Mar 25, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

You do recall the pitcher who hit a bird while on the mound….yeah I imagine we’d get a similar result with a Chara slapper and a kitty goalie. Just for your imagination.

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Mar 25, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Randy Johnson. I used to have that gif, I don’t know what happened to it.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

No one would shoot a puck at an innocent set of kitty goalies, and that’s how the Caps will win Lord Stanley. Lull the other team into complacency with the overload of adorableness, let them drift far from their own net, then fire at will into the empty net because they don’t have adorable kitty goalies.

I’ll stop getting OT now. :)

by redpezrocket on Mar 25, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

haha, I’m just messing with you. It’s fun to see fanbases go from high to low to high again at the drop of a hat this time of the year. Though we, as Caps fans, are conditioned for a little bit more low.

by QuadrupleDeke on Mar 25, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Not that I think Holtby should be our man throughout the playoffs, but wouldn’t it be fun just to start him for game 1?

by Brainumbc on Mar 25, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions

I was going to say, “So, Holtby should be the playoff starter, right?” Uh, no.

Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.

by gfcaps fan on Mar 25, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

The only real benefit is that it would probably mess with the competition a little. Holtby has that quality about him – he always freaks out the competition because I don’t think the other team expects to get pushed around by the goalie.

by redpezrocket on Mar 25, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

that and most of his starts weren’t in Disastember.

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by sydtron on Mar 25, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Archie’s quote on Holtby in today’s Express:

He is the warrior, the guy who fights for every puck, and he’s tremendously athletic. He is the guy who owns the crease; nobody will do their freelancing in his kitchen. It belongs to him.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I so hoped that Archie’s quote would be “nobody will do their cooking in his kitchen…”

by redpezrocket on Mar 25, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Nobody will do their baking in his bakery?

You had me at "no problem"!

by mosaicist on Mar 25, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

too bad holtby wasn’t here for the flyers series game 7 :P

by Brainumbc on Mar 25, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty impressive (or disappointing) that Varly is only 5-3 against non-playoff teams with a GAA of 1.99.

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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 25, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

Better make sure we don’t start Varly if we draw the Islanders in the first round.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually…you can throw out all those OTs, because the regular season OT does not equate. So call it 13-12. Ha.

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by macvechkin on Mar 25, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

But what does it mean!?

by feeya7 on Mar 25, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

Holtby for Vezina

by hocknlax on Mar 25, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Do not Panic...

Most goalies in the NHL are going to have better records against non-playoff teams than playoff teams by definition. Would I like to see the guys have better numbers? Sure, but it is what it is.

How the Caps do against all the teams in the playoffs, while important, isn’t the end-all of everything, since you don’t play all of the playoff teams in the playoffs. A breakdown of these goalies records vs. likely opponents (’Canes, Rangers, Bolts, Sabres, Habs) might be interesting….

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by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 25, 2011 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

I’d like to see the breakdown vs. rangers, pitt and philly as I think those will be the teams we face in order. (philly destroys Buff, then destroys Boston. Pitt destroys tampa).

by feeya7 on Mar 25, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

real quick:
vs. Philly: 2-0-2
vs. Pitt: 3-0-1
vs. Rags: 1-2-1

if someone wants to break down GF and GA and other stuff, go ahead.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Great, so our first round opponent is the one we’ve played the worst against? Awesome. Although, I guess if Boston makes it through we’d play them and Philly would play Pitt. Basically, with the current first round setup, I don’t see any likely upsets (unless we’re that upset, sadface)

by feeya7 on Mar 25, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

it’s all about the matchup…and we routinely get screwed on the matchup

Suspend Colin Campbell!

by snowburnt on Mar 25, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm…bet the NYR games would have skewed the numbers a tad…

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by red army line on Mar 25, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Neuvy
Nov. 9: 25/28, .893
Feb. 25: 22/28, .786

Varly
Dec. 12: 13/20, .650

Holtby
Jan. 24: 28/29, .966

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

And that lone goal that got by Holtby in January was a fluke that bounced off of Gaborik’s elbow, up in the air over Holtby’s head, and into the goal.

"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.

by bagace on Mar 25, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Glass half full reaction — there’s no where to go but up!!!

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by STLSpidey on Mar 25, 2011 12:45 PM EDT reply actions

I like the stat as I think it grounds expectations. But there’s no question the teams’ overall performance recently is an upward factor on this number, and the timing could certainly be worse.

by Icebat on Mar 25, 2011 12:57 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe I’m just being blindly optimistic, but the GAA numbers against playoff teams seem reasonable to me. Looking at eastern conference playoff teams GAA over the season:

PHI – 3.15
BOS – 3.04
PIT- 2.81
TB – 2.88
MTL – 2.55
NYR – 2.79
BUF – 2.89

We’re definitely not scraping the bottom of the barrel with our goalies or team defense against playoff teams. Obviously our performance against non-playoff teams is markedly better, but that seems understandable to me. The hidden, killer stat in that win-loss record against playoff teams would seem to be our lower than average goals-for.

by helo29 on Mar 25, 2011 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

To clarify, those numbers are the team averages throughout the season, not against the caps.

by helo29 on Mar 25, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

3.15? If the Caps were sporting that, the shrill cries of “THE CAPS AREN’T BUILT FOR THE PLAYOFFS!” would have been ringing for weeks now.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 25, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Not recording a single shutout all year will do that to your stats.

"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.

by bagace on Mar 25, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Those have to be the Goals FOR averages. There’s absolutely no way that Boston is averaging 3 goals against a game.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 25, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

On the season Boston’s at 2.34 in GA, third-best in hockey (we’re fourth-best, btw). Boston’s GF average is 2.99, good enough for fifth-best in the league.

And no, I won’t be surprised if the Bruins win the East this year.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing that stands out to me the most is that Varly has played a much harder schedule than the other 2 (by this measure) and so his overall stats are somewhat suppressed. I could see Boudreau starting Neuvy and then pulling a Theo on him by switching to Varly the instant he falters.

by LSF76 on Mar 25, 2011 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

Stats tell us everything and nothing

It’s hard to read tea leaves and JP’s point is jarring taken at first glance, and makes you want to start Varly in goal come playoff time (my personal preference is Varly for his NHL playoff experience).
You look at Lundqvist for example: His record against top 10 teams is 8/5/4, 2.08 GA, and .932 SV%. Damn good, but his record against bottom 10 teams is 14/9/2, 1.99, .930; still good, but he was basically 14/11, this is not total domination against the worst teams in the league.

Luongo was 8/5/4, 2.08, .932 vs top 10 (or 8/9, if you want to count wins/losses), and 13/2/1, 1.97, .934 vs bottom 10. Could be said to fatten up on bottom feeders as well.

Pekka Rinne is 9/6/3, .935, 2.20 vs top 10, and 12/9/2, .918, 2.14 (or 12/11) vs the bottom 10. Great GAA and SV%, but W/L’s? Mediocre, and not dominant.

Neuvy’s stats would scare me if we didnt have Varly – I’m only half kidding.

I think it MAY be as instructive, particularly for a platoon goalie type team to check head to head records. Varly has sparkled against TBL and CAR, for instance – but he did not play well vs BOS, nor did Neuvy for that matter (can we call up Holtby if we play BOS? ;) ).

Rinne is 0/2/2 vs CAL this year; that has to be of concern if NAS drew CAL post season.

King Henrik has 1W/3L vs PHI, 1W /2L vs MON, and is 0/2/2 vs TBL.

You can look at this crap all day. But I think head matchups may be more salient?

by S h a g g y on Mar 25, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

that should be head to head matchups

by S h a g g y on Mar 25, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

The wins and losses don’t matter much to me. The SV%s matter more, and what Neuvy has done against top teams isn’t inspiring in the slightest, is it?

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

No, it’s not – and that’s with 2 SO. I guess my main question is, will Bruce play the hot goalie, or the goalie he believes will match up better against a certain team?

by S h a g g y on Mar 25, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess is whoever is playing the best at the time. I don’t think there’s a single opponent in the field for whom you’d say, “Sure, Goalie X is playing better, but Goalie Y has handled this team better in the past.” Maybe Varly vs. MTL or Neuvy vs. PIT. But I doubt it.

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s the million dollar question right there. Safe to say whatever BB decides – Neuvy, Varly, Neuvy/Varly – will be wrong if the Caps don’t at least get to the ECF. These are the times I’m glad I’m no a head coach.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Both is your answer.

He’ll start with the goalie he things matches up best. But, if we win that series, he’ll stay with that goalie into the second series, regardless of match-ups.

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by STLSpidey on Mar 25, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s what I was thinking. Despite Varly having a worse P% in his playoff bound games, he has a better gaa and s%. But how much of that do you account for sample size? I don’t think much.

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Mar 25, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe there is a “rookie” factor in here (one for which Holtby does not yet have enough appearances to have it expressed), and it shows up in an odd number. For both Neuvirth and Varlamov, they face less rubber per appearance — and stop less of it — against playoff teams than against non-playoff teams. For Neuvirth the numbers are 24.3 a game vs playoff teams, 26.8 against non-playoff teams. For Varlamov it’s 29.0 and 31.1.

I’d be wondering if there aren’t a bunch of softies against playoff teams owing to problems with focus. Of course, shot quality might be an influence here, too (presumably playoff teams are more adept at things like screening, deflecting pucks, and that sort of thing…that’s one reason they are playoff teams).

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by ThePeerless on Mar 25, 2011 2:44 PM EDT reply actions

I’d be interested to know how many of those losses came in games where the Caps scored 1 or fewer goals. Not interested enough to look it up, mind you, but I know that the Caps have been shut out multiple times by playoff teams (including 2x each by the Rags and Lightning). That’ll dent the old win %.

by grapejoos on Mar 25, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

Ok, I lied: I was interested enough to look it up.

Varly has lost 6 games this year vs. playoff teams where the team scored 1 or fewer goals – 3 shutouts (NYR, TB twice, once in OT) and 3 in one-goal performances (LA, BOS, ANA (OT)) Overall, 0-4-2 in such games.

Neuvy has 3 such losses – shutouts versus NYR and SJ, and a one-goal loss to Boston. 0-3-0.

Holtby has 1 – a 2-1 shootout loss to NYR. 0-0-1.

My takeaway from this is that Varly’s numbers look worse due to a lack of goal support. He’s 5-5-4 overall vs. playoff teams, but had no goal support in 6 of those 14 games. Some he would have lost anyway, in all likelihood (especially the 7-0 loss vs. NYR), but not all.

by grapejoos on Mar 25, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is why save percentage is always the first number I look at with goalies.

There’s a tendency to connect good feelings with a win (and whichever goalie was in net) and forget the times a goalie was great but took the loss.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s a tendency to connect good feelings with a win (and whichever goalie was in net)

See Theodore, Jose 2009-10

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by J.P. on Mar 25, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s a tough pill to swallow. We’ve only played 33 games against playoff teams with Neuvy or Varly? I guess that just makes what Holtby did that much more impressive going 5-1 in his games against playoff teams this season.

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by jaytown99 on Mar 25, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions

Based on their career ES Save percentages, Varly appears to be the superior goalie (when healthy). These numbers tend to confirm that, obligatory small sample size caveats aside.

We’ll see how they perform down the stretch, and whether Varly can stay healthy. But all things being equal, SV1 looks like the guy who starts Game 1, Round 1 to me.

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 25, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

I think I’m looking forward to Saturday night’s game more than any since that big Bolts game. And I honestly don’t care that much whether we win or lose.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

It will be very interesting. The Habs, if they have any resiliency (and I think they do) will likely play like a team possessed. And the Caps will be playing their 2nd game in 2 nights. I think Varly’s going to have plenty of highlight-reel save opportunities…

by grapejoos on Mar 25, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

If Varly looks fantastic that will be a great sign for our depth, particularly since it’s a tough barn and he should be rusty.

"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."

by LucyImHome on Mar 25, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I would expect the Habs to win that game. But I am very interested to see how Varly looks; I’m expecting he’ll be rusty. But I expect him to be quite good in his next game.

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 25, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions