The Noon Number
by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
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0 - Number of playoff series (of 14 total) in four seasons playing in North America which Michal Neuvirth has lost (and he's not shy about letting everyone know that). A quick look at Neuvy's postseason-by-postseason results:
- 2006-07: Went 14-3/2.45/.932 for OHL Champion Plymouth
- 2007-08: Went 7-2/2.48/.932 for Oshawa (which lost in the third round without an injured Neuvirth)
- 2008-09: Went 16-6/1.92/.932 for AHL Champion Hershey (setting an AHL record for the lowest GAA in a playoffs and winning the Jack A. Butterfield Trophy as Calder Cup Playoff MVP)
- 2009-10: Went 14-4/2.07/.920 for AHL Champion Hershey
That's a combined 51-16/2.17/.929 line overall, and a perfect 14-for-14 in playoff series in which he's played.
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No, we’d have to get two points. Carolina is at 76 points and has 10 games remaining; for us to be out of the playoffs, they’d have to win out and the Caps would have to not gain another point.
A win (regulation, overtime, or shootout) does clinch us a playoff spot, however, because with 10 regulation/overtime wins, the Caps would have 96 points and 39 regulation/overtime wins, which is 10 more than Carolina. So even if they tie us, we win the next tiebreaker, which is the season series between the teams (and in which the Caps have 10 points to Carolina’s 3).
Thanks.
So does that mean we get in with an OT loss in Philly and a Senators regulation win over Carolina?
The Caps get in as soon as the total points lost by Carolina plus the total points won by Washington equals 2. This can be accomplished in many ways, including the scenario you proposed (which is actually overkill by a point).
by QuadrupleDeke on Mar 21, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Clips thread, please. This has nothing to do w/ the Noon Number.
"And then they’ll look at guys in my situation, that could play three good games in a row and have one bad shift, and they’ll say, ‘Well, that’s why he’s been in the minor leagues his whole career.'" --Matt Hendricks
by bigeugene on Mar 21, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
My apologies, didn’t realize it was quite so regimented here.
To that end: I still want Varly starting Game 1 of the ECQ series provided he’s 90-100 percent healthy. The NHL is an entirely different animal and Varly’s proven he’s usually clutch when it counts.
(And tyvm for the help, Quadruple)
Varly’s proven he’s usually clutch when it counts
.
(disclaimer: may not apply to actual Game 7s in the playoffs)
"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov
by Scott in Shaw on Mar 21, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The NHL is an entirely different animal and Varly’s proven he’s usually clutch when it counts.
No question about that, but know what’s clutch? Being down 3-2 in a series and pitching back-to-back shutouts like Neuvy did last year. Yes, AHL. Yes, still impressive.
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by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And IIRC weren’t they on the road shut outs. I remember a lot of people were surprised that he didn’t win MVP again because of how well he played to close out that series.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Being clutch is largely a mental skill, not a physical skill. Neuvirth clearly has the physical ability to play in the NHL, and I see no reason why his ability to mentally focus and be at the top of his game come playoff time wouldn’t stick with him at higher levels.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually Justin Goldman founder of the Goalie Guild when he was on Japers’ Rink Radio Feb. 12th thought extremely highly of Neuvy, even over Varly, for two primary reasons as I recall.
1) that Neuvy was extraordinarily super efficient in his movements (that was his major criticism of Varly, that he wasted too much energy with unnecessary motion) and
2) more importantly that Neuvy’s mental game was top-notch. He described Neuvy as having ice-water in his veins and was therefore able to raise his performance to shut down a game completely.
He had great things to say about Varly as well, thought that he had really improved on his efficiency of motion this season. But I definitely got the impression that he thought Neuvy had the stronger mental game.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
@thegoalieguild is extremely high on Neuvy. Says he’s the guy, for sure.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Moderation from a non-mod… I just wept a tear of joy.
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Neuvirth better check his sweater to see how his postseason fortunes will turn out.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
So, by extrapolation, that means we win the cup if Neuvy stays healthy.
ROCK!
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions
93.2% save percentage 3 years in a row.
Damn, that’s unbelievable consistent. Though that bum fell of a cliff in his last Calder run with only a 92.0%.
by HockeyGoalie29 on Mar 21, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions
So he won the OHL, but not the Memorial Cup? I keep meaning to ask why not? Was he the backup?
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
I was typing my comment below and tracking down a link to the stats before posting so I didn’t see this before I posted.
Plymouth didn’t win the Memorial Cup that year, Vancouver won.
I see. I was asking both if they won and if he was the goalie. I wondered why that never showed up. And yes, it should count, shouldn’t it? There’s a shiny trophy for winning.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
The Memorial Cup is a mini-round robin followed by single elimination semi-finals and finals so it’s not a traditional hockey playoff format like the OHL, AHL and NHL playoffs. See the link below to the links to the individual games.
round robin:
Lost to Vancouver 4-3OT, Neuvirth made 33 saves, 37 shots on goal in 65+ minutes
Lost to Medicine Hat 4-1, Neuvirth was pulled early in the game after allowing 2 goals on 5 shots in 4:25 of playing time
Beat Lewiston 2-1; the day after Neuvirth was pulled, 26 saves on 27 shots for the win (note: Bernier was the goalie for Lewiston) in OT in 64+ minutes
Tiebreaker game – Beat Lewiston 5-1; 29 of 30 (Bernier was pulled)
Semi-final game – Lost to Vancouver 8-1, the day after the Lewiston win in the tiebreaker; Neuvirth was pulled in the second period after allowing 3 goals on 13 shots; it’s worth looking at the rosters for that game
Assistant Coach Yogi Svejkovsky, eh?
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 21, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
He was the Asst. Coach for Vancouver for 3 or 4 seasons. I believe he still works with the team but not as big a commitment this season, but that may be wrong about him having any association at this time. I know he is very involved with Vancouver area youth hockey/coaching and director of hockey operations for a youth hockey group.
Getting OT, but I saved the link so easy to find…here it is for info. on Yogi Svejkovsky
I’d just add that Plymouth was a huge underdog in the OHL playoffs and didn’t really have any business being in the Memorial Cup. There’s also a decent layoff between the league finals and the Memorial Cup, which is a dagger for a hot goalie.
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by Rob Parker on Mar 21, 2011 6:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As a big Neuvirth fan and someone that believes his playoff experience is important and relevant even if not in the NHL playoffs, and the comments about him making the save to win are true, too, based on what I have seen, it is nice to see the numbers in one place.
For these purposes, I guess we are excluding the Memorial Cup, which was a result of winning the OHL championship, but is not a traditional League playoff series format. link
Takes nothing away from his stats and performance playing junior hockey and AHL hockey in North America, but it is part of his history and he had ups and downs during the Memorial Cup, IIRC, he was pulled twice. I don’t recall ever hearing about an injury, just assumed the season caught up to Neuvirth adn Plymouth that year.
For these purposes, I guess we are excluding the Memorial Cup, which was a result of winning the OHL championship, but is not a traditional League playoff series format.
Yup. It didn’t fit the narrative (which was based on Neuvy’s own quote), so I left it out. You’re right to mention it, though, in the context of his postseason experience.
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Neuvy is a little hard to chant. Do you think the truth can catch on in the phone booth?
But still.. where did the lighter fluid come from?
by Ridley me this on Mar 21, 2011 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
We only serenade opposing goalies. There might be the standard “OOOOOOOOOO” cheer after a big play by any player with a name that has an “oo” in it.
Of course, I say “Noy-Vee”, but I seem to be alone in this…
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s one of the cases in which how a person’s full name is pronounced is totally not workable in terms of nicknames. “New-Vee” rolls off the tongue a lot better than “Noy-Vee” and I think fans and players gravitated toward that more, so it doesn’t matter that his name isn’t “New-virth,” his nickname has to be “New-Vee” because “Noy-Vee” was so awkward to say.
by redpezrocket on Mar 21, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
my uncultured self has always read “Neuvy” as “New-Vee”
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how about just
Truuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuth!
"We know the answers have to come from this room," Hendricks said. "They're in here."
I’m partial to “WINNAH!” myself.
to keep this on-topic: Neuvy is awesome and can back up his talk. Playoffs+Neuvy=decades of heartache will be nothing but memories come June.
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I always say Noy-Vee. Don’t know why others think it’s awkward to chant.
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
I think at the arena too many people dither over how to pronounce it and the chant just doesn’t get going too well as a result.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn’t help that Locker says New-Vee.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
As do all the players, the coaches, other media…yeah, it’s taken over. True pronunciation takes a backseat to our bastardized version.
FWIW, I always say ‘New-Vee’ as well.
Sunrise, sunset, swiftly fly the years. One season following another, laden with happiness and tears.
So be it. But unless it becomes a VC cheer in csome fashion, I’m sticking with my version.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to want to do that as well. I’ll admit I associate the syllable “neu” (noy) with the word “new”, especially when “neu” means “new” in German. While Neuvy’s Czech rather than German, I presume he’s got German ancestors. His nickname “Neuvy” makes me want to call him “Newby” as well. Even though he’s no longer a “newby” to us.
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I am the biggest Varly fan around and I still think he should be starting Game 1 of the playoffs if he is healthy over the last week. I think he has shown his mettle in the NHL playoffs after getting tossed to the fiery dogs right away two years ago.
That said, if Neuvirth goes 4-for-4 on playoff series and we win a Cup on his back, I think he completely cements being the goalie of the future in DC, Varly gets traded, and a Neuvy/Holtby tandem here makes me smile for years.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
Varly has big-stage experience – SC playoffs, World Championships, etc. – that Neuvy doesn’t have. Also I think Varly is far more capable of taking over a game than Neuvy.
Neuvy is a rock-solid fundamental player, he just doesn’t have the stand-on-his-head upside of Varly. I won’t be upset if it ends up being Neuvy, but I’d prefer Varly.
Quality over quantity is definitely a legitimate argument… in the same vein, does the quality of Varly’s post-season play trump the quantity of games he’s played? Neuvy has less experience with the big stage but he’s absolutely excelled at what he’s done so far. Varly has more experience with the big stage, but has not exactly put up the best numbers.
We’re both making a case for quality over quantity, but in different ways.
by redpezrocket on Mar 21, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Neuvy is a rock-solid fundamental player, he just doesn’t have the stand-on-his-head upside of Varly
I tend to disagree with that statement and think that Neuvirth is essentially a victim of his own efficiency here – he doesn’t look as acrobatic/athletic as Varly because he often doesn’t need to. More to the specific point, I think just about every goalie in the League has stand-on-his-head upside and the ability to take over a game. Varly may be the better goalie, but I don’t think it’s fair to take away from what Neuvy has done this season and at every level in every season prior.
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by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Yeah, it’s not Neuvirth’s fault (perhaps indirectly in that Varly had the coaches’ confidence to get the call?) that Varly is the one who got the NHL postseason experience this far. It’s like saying “I won the Bantam Championship the year you were playing PeeWee.” “Yeah, but I won the PeeWee Championship that year. This is my first year playing Bantams. And I’m 14/14 in playoff series.”
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And to build on that, the contrast in styles contributes to the discrepancy in how injury-prone each player is. Varly can make more explosive acrobatic plays, but he also has to make more explosive acrobatic plays to recover. Since he can make such plays, he does. It’s that sort of over-extension that leads to injury.
The upside for Varly is that if and when he becomes more efficient more often, he will rely on his athleticism less and stay healthy. Ironically, when he starts looking more Neuvirth-like (in some people’s minds, “average”) might be a sign of his maturing into a better goaltender.
The keyboard is mightier.
In the same vein, I think the dichotomy between the two in terms of positioning versus athleticism is overblown. Varly does a good job tracking the puck through traffic and making sure he’s square, even if he’s not as “quiet” as Neuvirth is. You don’t save as many pucks as he does in the NHL by just being a superior athlete.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fair point, but Varly is much, much more prone to over-committing and being victimized by the same aggressiveness that often makes him so successful.
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And this is something I’ve been saying since the first time I watched both goalies play… Varlamov makes the explosive saves because he has to. When he beat Montreal in their barn his first time out in that barn, becoming the first rookie to perform that feat of awesomeness in I don’t remember how many centuries (), I remember saying then that he’d gotten insanely lucky after Montreal rang several shots off the post that had him beaten cleanly… If Montreal could aim a little better, Varly wouldn’t have been the hero he was made out to be.
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He has to, and he can. So far, that has-to and can-do have saved more pucks than Neuvirth’s efficiency. It could be that he’s gotten insanely lucky to date (.929 ES SV% is really good, I bet he has gotten somewhat lucky), but I don’t have a good, systematic way to quantify that right now, just the results at hand.
I’m no pro scout, I can’t look at each goalie’s style and mechanics and then make a decision on who’s better. I have to rely on data – my impressions aren’t good enough to lead me to a reliable conclusion.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
His ES numbers/the Caps goalie corps are fairly legitimate due to the increased ability of the Capitals’ defenders to cut down on high percentage shots as well as clear rebounds out. The PK #s are still wonky, though, from last I saw.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
I’d be really careful making that claim. If you can prove a shot-quality effect in the Caps defense, there’s money in it for you.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
eh, tea leaves are in the GAA on the team having a precipitous drop for all the goalies from last year to this one.
Hannan being added, less Poti and more overachieving Erskine this year.
There’s definitely an increase in defensive talent on the team, as well as the system (t.m.) being changed. Hard to claim a high, but not exorbitantly so, sv% to require regression in order to pass a sanity check.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
If you can disambiguate it from the random fluctuation, then please do. Those are possibilities, but I’m really, really leery of chalking up the goalie’s save percentage to “shot quality”, especially when his ES SV% between this year and last are practically identical.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sticking with it, even though there’s something extremely scary with another sanity check:
It’s one of the stats I’d like to be able to quote, quality of shot, but there’s nothing pretty about it when a player that has a name that rhymes with Syler Tloan has the same save% behind him as Scheff Jultz.
It’s pick apart-able, but, I tend to find the Caps D keeping the puck wide and tying up sticks on centering passes more and more this year than in the past. Then the capabilities of the blueliners themselves.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
On that subject, I’d start reading here
Then when you’re ready to read team-level suppression stuff, Tom Awad and Vic Ferrari have both done quite a bit on the subject. The effect looks real, but small.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a good read, and it is what set me off on that path. I just can’t fathom that there’s no notable difference between a top tier defender (Pronger) and a bottom tier defender (anyone else, why not Souray)
It’s pure phrenology though, I doubt any stat or combination thereof could show it. GAA and SV% are good enough indicators for me, I suppose.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
Of course there’s a difference! The good defenseman gives up fewer shots…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Mar 22, 2011 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
There is (I think I read Pronger increases sv% by about .005). Just good defense leads to a combination of better sv% and shot suppression, so it’s sometimes tough to judge, and asking 6 defenseman to be significantly better than another group of 6 is asking for a lot.
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by red army line on Mar 22, 2011 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d say your data isn’t enough to make a sound conclusion because ESS% isn’t the end all be all of goalie analysis. Far from it.
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by Rob Parker on Mar 21, 2011 6:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure, but I think we’re talking about a handful of times over the course of the season.
But let’s posit that the difference is that big. We know that Varlamov has performed better to date by both sv% and by matching save percentage against expected shooting percentages from where the shot was taken on the ice. If the difference is primarily in which goalie is more aggressive, wouldn’t you want the more aggressive goalie? If one goalie is giving up more goals against because they’re being too conservative, wouldn’t you want them to play a more aggressive game?
To borrow a phrase, it’s not how, it’s how many. I just don’t there’s all that big a difference in how.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree, though I would pick a nit on your use of that phrase here – it isn’t how many, either, since a goalie that makes one stop and doesn’t yield a rebound is preferable to one who gives up a rebound and has to make another save or two.
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That’s an interesting point. If someone with a shot database wanted to look up the frequency of shots within 4 seconds after a save and without an intervening faceoff as a rate for each goalie, that could answer the question of who has better rebound control. I have to think we’d see that show up in shots against, but it’s really hard to tell that from noise.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I wasn’t saying it’s necessarily the case here – more just being anal retentive about the application of one of my favorite cliches.
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I’m with you all the way through on that. Sometimes, we need to parse finely.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree to an extent, but I will say (echoing my above comment) that Varly appears to be the victim of his superior athleticism to some degree. He gets himself out of position frequently enough that he does have to make those explosive, over-extending plays…and without any scientific data to support this assertion I’m guessing it’s why he is injured all the time.
Whether Neuvirth is also out-of-position as often but we just don’t notice, or whether injury-proneness is an inherent quality unrelated to how often a goalie has to overextend – these are explanations I’d also accept.
The keyboard is mightier.
Keep in mind Neuvy has been playing in front of a better Caps team the past month. Comparing apples to apples when Neuvy and Varly were both active Varly was the superior performer.
And I don’t think Varly gives up the third goal in Detroit.
But where would the caps be without Neuvy in Oct. The team wasn’t the same back then and Neuvy was the only one that kept them heads above water and made them seem like they were playing better than they were.
"Ovechkin is as subtle as a shot of vodka."
I think this goes a long way in the “intangibles” column. Even if Varly’s numbers are better, the fact is, Neuvy kept the team going in a lot of ways in October. He was often the reason why a stifled offense and broken down defense were able to eke out a win at all.
by redpezrocket on Mar 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And I don’t think Varly gives up the third goal in Detroit.
We’ll obviously never know, but Varly’s biggest weakness is probably his glove. And it was one bad goal… should we also say “Neuvy would never give up that crappy goal that Drury scored in the playoffs against Varly two years ago”?
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Is your contention that Neuvy gives the Caps a better chance to win a playoff series if both goalies are 100 percent healthy on April 13?
No.
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by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Question is, would Neuvy have given up that second goal in games 5 and 7 of last year’s playoffs?
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Please. Now we’re just being silly.
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by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Not at all, went back and looked at both of them. High quality goals that would have taken a heroic effort to stop. Nothing I’ve seen from Neuvy this season tells me he gets to either
by LucyImHome on Mar 21, 2011 4:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, Neuvirth has never done anything as “heroic” as stopping a breakaway from such a dominating offensive force as Dominic Moore.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Even mediocre NHL players are capable of quality goals.
by LucyImHome on Mar 21, 2011 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My point was not that Neuvy would’ve stopped them, but rather that it’s pretty silly to look at individual shots that a guy who wasn’t in the game might or might not have saved.
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Then quite a bit of the subjective, hypothetical conversation that takes place in fan forums falls under the “silly” umbrella.
Having watched those two goals, I do not think a slightly less-talented goalie (Neuvy) could have stopped them. Can I be proven right? Of course not. But I can’t be proven wrong, either.
Actually, about three minutes and thirty seconds before the second goal in game 5, Varlamov froze the puck. If Neuvirth had been in net, he would have given up a harmless rebound instead. Play would have continued, and the whole sequence would have been different.
The Caps still lose 2-1, but in the alternative Neu-verse, the second goal is scored by Brian Gionta at 10:23 of the second period instead of Travis Moen at 7:01. With a beauty of a move that neither Neuvirth nor Varlamov could ever have stopped.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Mar 22, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Normally I hate hypotheticals, but you have a gift with them.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 22, 2011 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I see what you did there . . .
Nice to see much passion here. Hopefully whoever is in net next month plays well.
In my opinion goalie is far less important to our prospects than team defense, the PP and Sasha. If everyone on the teams does his job we’ll be in the ECF.
Decisions, decisions: do I go with my Neuvy jersey or my Varly one?
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 22, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Neuvy’s glove is ridiculous, but he rarely has to do it. I wish I could remember the game but a few times Neuvy was crossing over his body to use his glove to make a save. Plus, his kick to make the save on Carolina Staal was as good as you can get. He went from there to here in no time flat.
He’s not as athletic as Varlamov but the gulf between the two isn’t as wide as it may seem. JP’s statements echo what you see if you watch him closely — he’s very conservative with his movement and rarely has to make the back-breaking moves that show Varlamov to be so much more athletic.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
It wasn’t a great save, it was a poor shot by Staal.
(that sound you hear is an old can of worms opening…)
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by Scott in Shaw on Mar 21, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you mostly and agree with JP below as well. Neuvy has done just about as perfect a job as a rookie goalie could do to try and steal a starting job. That said, I feel like all this Neuvy praise makes me a little sad too, because I think we too easily forget how clutch Varly was the past 2 post-seasons as a rookie in the playoffs. I feel like, now that we have “the right team” or whatever blah blah, Varly deserves to by paid back for his hard work trying to bail out the skaters in the past two post-seasons. He deserves another shot at it with the “right” team in front of him, whatever that means.
If I wasn’t at work I’d post the screen grab of his stick. You all know the one.
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
You take away that unfortunate Game 7 two years ago and Varly has been about as reliable as it gets in big-time situations. When the bright lights come on in MSG, HSBC Arena, etc., I want the guy with ice water in his veins between the pipes.
Varly was pretty “meh” in more than just Game 7. He had at least one other sub-par game late in that series, and he was pretty average for the whole MTL series as well. And you don’t do what Neuvirth’s done in the playoffs without having ice water in your veins. It doesn’t matter what level you’re looking at.
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Considering the circumstances of the 2009 SC playoffs you’’d have to be grading on a pretty tough scale to call what 20-year old Varly did that year “meh.” And saying Varly was average for the entire MTL series is a little harsh, IMO.
At the risk of insulting the OHL/AHL fans out there, comparing the level of pressure in those postseason games to what you face at the NHL level is borderline apples and oranges.
I didn’t say that Varly was “meh” for the entire 2009 playoffs. I meant that he had more than one bad game in the Pittsburgh series. He started off incredible in that series then seemed to wear down. He was not good in Game 4, and he was nothing to write home about in Games 5 and 6 either. But he definitely gets credit for one of 2 Caps who were able to even make that series close.
But I don’t think it’s harsh to call Varly average for the MTL series. .908 Sv% for a series is pretty damn average. 2.41 GAA isn’t bad (but not great), and that was playing against a team that was very limited offensively and got dominated territorially all series. Sure he didn’t get a lot of goal support the last 3 games, but he also didn’t come up with the big saves at times the team needed them (the way he did in the first period of Game 3, for example). That’s the definition of average goaltending to me, especially in the playoffs.
Sure, the pressure may not be quite as high in the AHL/OHL (although when you are on the ice I’m not sure it’s as big as you suggest). But when a guy plays at the top of his game every single playoffs at what point do you ignore the level and just admit that the dude knows how to keep his cool in crunch time? I think Varlamov has generally been good in the playoffs, but he’s had his ups and downs. How do you compare limited up and down NHL playoff performance vs. 4 years of playoff domination in the AHL/OHL?
To me the mental focus is a skill that a player can easily carry from level to level. It’s not like a guy dominating physically in juniors then not being able to hack it in the NHL, or even a goalie dominating AHL shooters but sucking in the NHL. Neuvirth clearly has the physical talents to play in the NHL, and I think his AHL/OHL performances say a ton about his mental strength.
I’m not ready to hand Neuvirth the starting spot yet, but based on this nooner I am very confident he’ll bring his A game if given the chance.
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 13 recs
I’m not with you on the “dominated territorial” line. The Caps did just what the Caps always did last season, give up the puck in dangerous situations and allow guys to camp in front of the net.
Go back and check the goals Varly gave up in the last few games of the MTL series. A lot of those situations were guys on top of him all alone or deflections through traffic. Varly wasn’t given up softies from the blue line that series.
And I don’t think you can ever ignore the level. The minors are the minors. Success there is nice, but must be taken with a grain of salt.
You don’t think the Caps dominated the play? The Caps outshot MTL by at least 9 shots in 6 of the 7 games. The shots in the last 3 games were 38-28, 54-22, 42-16. I don’t know about you, but to me that’s pretty dominant.
Sure, Varlamov didn’t let up soft goals, but I never said he did. I said he failed to make big saves when they needed. Making the saves you need to make is average goaltending. But above average goalies come up with tough saves. Like when a plugger like Dominic Moore comes in on the goalie when your team is down 1-0 late in the 3rd period of Game 7. Or coming up with a tough save when the team is scrambling early in Game 5 with a chance to close out the series. Those are the types of tough saves reliable playoff goalies make.
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And I didn’t ignore the level. I talked about why I think that traits such as mental toughness are different from physical abilities and are more consistent across levels of play. You’ve said that you think Neuvirth would be more likely to crumble under pressure, yet there isn’t a shred of evidence to support that he has that type of mental makeup. Sure, he may fold under NHL pressure, but I’m not sure why you refuse to give him any benefit of the doubt before he does so after he’s had such consistently great playoff play.
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You asked at what point should we ignore the level. I say never.
There is tons of evidence to support Varly giving us a better chance to win in the playoffs. The stats speak for themselves:
When the playoffs start, stats from last year and the year before don’t mean a whole lot. Between now and the beginning of the playoffs, we’ll probably have a chance to see if Varly is on top of his game. If he is, well and good. But I’d rather have a Neuvy with a swagger every day of the week and twice on Sunday, than a Varly who’s compromised by a layoff due to injury and rehab.
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So there is nothing any goalie can do at a level other than the NHL to show that they have mental toughness (or any other trait or skill for that matter)?
Varlamov may very well be the better goalie, which is why I’m not ready to hand the reigns to Neuvirth yet. But I dispute the suggestion that Neuvirth is likely to crumble under pressure, or that Varlamov has been a consistently reliable playoff goalie.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly don’t think Neuvy is likely to crumble under pressure, and based on what I’ve seen this year I’m confident in his mental toughness.
I simply think there is a slightly higher risk of bad performance because of the lack of experience.
Varlamov has done fine without any.
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by Gould Old Days on Mar 22, 2011 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Lack of experience?
Dude is unbeaten in all of his playoff experience at any lower level. I am not discounting that as “no experience” or “lack of experience”. Neuvirth has now played in 65 NHL games to Varlamov’s 56 (regular season). He’s played in more playoff games than Varlamov (81-41 career as shown on the NHL.com player card) – almost double the number.
When does “lack of experience” stop being a factor for him? Neuvirth has never lost a playoff series.
…getting really tired of “lack of experience” as a reason to hold him back.
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 22, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Neuvirth has never lost a playoff series.
Interesting. Maybe J.P. should make that stat one of the site’s “Noon Number” threads.
And obviously I should have said "lack of NHL experience. Neuvy has been spectacular in the minors.
I certainly don’t want to hold him back. I simply want the best player in net. In my opinion that is Varly.
Let him shake the rust off before we come to that conclusion.
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 22, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Blame that on two 7-game series.
It puts the players’ endurance levels in perspective.
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by Steck It Out on Mar 21, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
All the more reason to platoon the two goalies if at all possible. There are going to be some back-to-back nights and I think the Caps have a distinct advantage with their depth if they choose to employ it.
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there shouldn’t be back-to-backs in the playoffs. There is not supposed to be.
on that note, screw Pittsburgh and Yanni. assholes.
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by RedBirdie on Mar 21, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Varley has been given ample chance to take the reins but has failed to remain healthy. You can’t depend on him in the playoffs because of that.
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I’m certainly not suggesting we trade Neuvy. If Varly looks like Varly over the next few weeks he should get the start in the playoffs.
If injury issues come up we’ve got one of the best back-ups in the sport.
Even if Varley looks like Varley, this isn’t his team to take into the playoffs.
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Neuvy’s only started 40 games himself. I’m not sure why it’s his team more than Varly’s.
And both of these guys are 22 so I don’t leadership it a huge consideration.
Neuvirth’s 40 starts have come over how many full seasons?
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I believe the poster was talking about the 2010-11 season. As far as which goalie has ownership of this particular campaign.
And how many starts has Varly posted this year?
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I’m aware of their stats.
My point was only that over 72 games we’ve gotten significant contributions from three different goalies. I can’t get on board with saying Varly shouldn’t get the playoff start because “this isn’t his team.”
Mentioning Neuvy’s number of starts was only to point out that he doesn’t have 55 or 60 starts, not that he doesn’t have more than Varly.
Isn’t “his” team? As in, this is Neuvy’s team because he’s the reason they are in the playoffs this year? Thats a very bold statement, and one I have to wholehearted disagree with. As I said above, Neuvy has done everything perfectly to try and steal the #1 spot, but I don’t think the spot was there for the taking by straight merit. Varly proved his worth over the past 2 post-seasons, and deserves the spot.
Its the same argument of why I think this should have been Semin’s last year to earn a continued spot on this team. Post-season production need to be the standard.
Varlamov proved his worth, but he hasn’t proven himself healthy. He could be better, he could be the more loyal soldier and he could be a lot of things but one thing he ain’t is reliable.
Larger constellations burning, mellow moons and happy skies,
Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
Why does that matter as to who should start? If he’s the better goalie, why not play him until he inevitably gets hurt again?
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To be fair, none of this really matters because Varlamov’s like Flash or Steckel, one of his favorite toys and even if Neuvirth assembled a 60 win, 60 shutout season Varlamov would be in during the playoffs.
My point, though, is that it sucks to have Neuvirth be the reason the team is in the playoffs (look back at October and how important those wins were after the disastrous December) and just pull him out because Varlamov did well a few years ago before injuring himself several times over.
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Breadths of tropic shade and palms in cluster, knots of Paradise.
I feel you, I just feel the same argument for Varly too. Sucks for him that our PP went 1 for 33 against MTL last post-season.
He, along with a host of others, came up pretty small in game 5—he needed to have one of Moen’s (in particular) or Cammalleri’s in the first. Just sayin’.
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In fact, he had an .892 save percentage over the last three games of the series (and .865 over the last two). Not exactly super-clutch.
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Looking at the series as a whole, Varly was more than good enough for us to win. He basically had one bad game.
He had three games with a SV% under .876.
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And the three goals he gave up in Games 2 and 4?
There’s a difference between “good” and “good enough to win.” Varly was most certainly the latter throughout most of that series.
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I guess I have more confidence that Varly will give us a chance to win every time he takes the ice. I’m a fan of Neuvy’s as well, it’s more a gut feeling that between the two Neuvy is slightly more likely to fall apart under pressure.
There’s not a bad answer here.
Well, perhaps there’s a reason for that, but it shouldn’t be last year’s playoffs. It should be this year’s Quality Starts Percentage (though that data is somewhat dated already, and Neuvy has gone 2.36/.919 since then).
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Disagree with you about Neuvy’s mental game. Listen to Justin Goldman founder of the Goalie Guild discuss both goalies on Japers’ Rink Radio Feb. 12th podcast on iTunes. Thought both goalies had a lot of upside but in his description of Neuvy’s strengths he included both efficiency of movement and a stronger mental game.
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
before Neuvy went on to re-write AHL record books, before he demonstrated over 8 playoff series that he his Mr. Ice Water, I would have agreed that he would be the one to fall apart. After all, this is the 20 year old kid who was near tears on the Caps bench after getting pulled a couple seasons ago.
But now? No, absolutely don’t agree. Nothing seems to rattle him, not even getting metal in his eye.
JP thinks I’m a little too wedded to my NeuvyLove, but this guy is rock solid. Love Varly, love Holtby, but Neuvy’s The Guy as far as I’m concerned. not that what I think matters one flipping bit as far as Bruce is concerned.
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by RedBirdie on Mar 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
There is a bad answer. It’s the one that assumes Neuvy might crack under pressure.
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by Rob Parker on Mar 21, 2011 6:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Nobody knows how Neuvy will handle the SC playoffs.
We do know that Varly has been above-average in the postseason (maybe even great if you factor his age and experience). One player is a known commodity and the other is not.
Varlamov has also been below average in the playoffs.
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by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 21, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
For single games? Sure.
But looking at the complete body of work he’s been pretty impressive. A .915 over 19 games for a 20 and 21-year old player in front of a so-so defensive team is damn good
A .908 in 6 games against a team starving for offense and not generating significant pressure, however, is not.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 21, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Round and round we go.
Varly was plenty good enough for the Caps to have won that series in five games. And don’t forget that guy like Mike Green made sure the Habs had plenty of up-close looks at the goal frame.
Shots on goal did not tell the story of that series.
Good goalies have to stop tough shots sometimes. Stopping those tough shots in close games is what makes a reliable playoff goalie.
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
On this we agree. Varly did not make every single tough save last year against MTL. But he made enough of them for us to win the series in 5 games, even after the other guy helped spot the Habs 1-0 lead
by LucyImHome on Mar 21, 2011 7:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He played well enough to win 3 games when the Caps were scoring 5 or 6 goals. He did not play well enough to win when Halak got hot. Yes, the Caps only scored 1 goal each game, but against a tight defensive team with a hot goalie, getting the early lead is crucial. In Game 5 he gave up 2 goals on 9 shots in the first period. Game 6 he gave up 2 goals on 10 shots in the first. Game 7 he gave up 1 goal on 8 shots, then another crucial goal late in the game despite facing only 16 shots all game.
Fact of the matter is that Varlamov’s failure to come up with big saves early in those games played right into MTL’s hands and put them in a position where they could sit back and frustrate the offense and let Halak do his thing. The timing of saves is crucial, and in the last three games Varlamov failed to come up with big saves at crucial times.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Just want to make it clear – this is not blaming Varlamov for the losses. That’s on the offense. This is just to say that Varlamov did not bail out the team from sub-par performances the way you need your goalie to do occasionally in the playoffs.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, there’s a difference between “good” and “good enough.”
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A .908 in 6 games against a team starving for offense and not generating significant pressure, however, is not.
Is that the fault of Varlamov, or the fault of the PK? Varly had .924 at ES, .828 shorthanded. And MTL had the #2 PP during the regular season.
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by red army line on Mar 22, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
And I think you are too dismissive of Neuvy’s accomplishments in Hershey.
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
They’re minor league stats. He’s been very good in the minor leagues.
If he plays in the playoffs this year I hope that translates into him being excellent. But all I know for sure is he’s never suited up for the SC playoffs.
Hence my use of the word “dismissive.”
Personally I think how well Neuvy performed in his two Calder Cup runs is worthy of more consideration than “they’re minor league stats.”
Neuvy is up here competing against Varly this season precisely because he played so well in Hershey, especially in the playoffs.
Last season Neuvy was in Holtby’s position, behind two other goalies, and saw some regular season games but was sent back down when the other two were healthy. So of course he has not suited up yet for the NHL playoffs, and that IMO shouldn’t negate him from suiting up this year.
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Actually, I don’t think either goalie is a known commodity. In fact, if you are going to say that what we’ve seen from Varlamov is what we’ll get, I’m not sure I want it. Because what we’ve seen is a goalie who was ridiculously hot for a round and a half then fizzled out under the workload. I sure as hell hope Varlamov can stay hot longer than that.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
How about a “more” known commodity?
19 > 0
And toss in a few World Championship starts, which I’m sure where a pretty big deal in his country.
Ha. I’ll take the AHL or OHL playoffs as a predictor of SC playoff performance long before the international JV tournament.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder how many AHL/OHL playoff games saw Neuvy face a lineup with Stamkos, Staal, Laich, Perry . . .
Doesn’t matter, he’s shown this year he has the talent to stop top NHL players. Success in a one-and-done tournament tells you nothing about a player’s ability to stay mentally focused for four rounds over a 2-month playoff season.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
But as we’ve seen this year he hasn’t proven he is at a higher level than Varly.
The numbers Greenberg cites are pretty convincing. Varly has been better in the third period and OT, better when the team is tied or behind and better against higher-quality competition.
Again, I’m not taking issue with that (although I’d like to know how the quality of competition is measured). But you initially based your support of Varlamov on the claim that he was a reliable playoff goalie and Neuvirth was more likely to crack under pressure. I just can’t buy that.
Neuvirth has shown three times that he has the mental strength to stay hot for 2 straight months under playoff pressure. Varlamov hasn’t even shown that he can stay healthy for two months, much less stay hot.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Which of these names is not like the other, which of these names is not the same?
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And the others have all (or will broken) 80 pts (likely 90). Laich is not on the same planet as them offensively.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Mar 21, 2011 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody knows how Neuvy will handle the SC playoffs.
So your default assumption is to ignore prior performance because it is at a different level and assume a lack of playoff ability?
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
My default assumption is that we don’t know for sure what a player is going to do in a given situation until they are in that situation.
I’m not ignoring anything.
You are ignoring previous performance in similar situations because they are a different level. Yeah yeah, the NHL is a higher level, but that doesn’t mean everything a player does up to that point is useless, even if it has to be tempered.
And I still haven’t heard a good argument as to why mental toughness doesn’t stick with a player at higher levels.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
How am I ignoring his past experience? If Neuvy ends up in net I’m very glad he has that pedigree.
I just think Varly gives the Caps a slightly better chance to win based on his background at the NHL level.
Props to you all for arguing all this still at 7:30 p.m. No snark at all, seriously. I love these types of debates on the Rink, it’s part of what makes it so great.
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Agreed. I should be washing the dinner dishes. This is MUCH more interesting.
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by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
This seems like a fair place to re-ask a question I was asking yesterday: Varlamov has had three NHL playoff series and won one of them. Neuvirth has had eight AHL playoff series and won all of them.
How many NHL playoff series is an AHL playoff series is worth?
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by CapitalCentre on Mar 21, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t know whether it’s possible to isolate and quantity goalie performance as such in a playoff series between levels.
I’d guess performance and health in the season prior to a playoff series probably have a big role in whether mental toughness would translate from one level to another.
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Well, OK, to ask another way — rhetorically (probably) — How do we believe Coach Boudreau will weigh eight excellent AHL series against three rather good NHL series, assuming Varly’s healthy then, when it’s time to make that decision?
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by CapitalCentre on Mar 21, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at the series as a whole, the Caps should have crushed the Habs.
Looking at the series as a whole, Ovechkin’s stat line doesn’t look bad at all.
It’s not necessarily about the aggregate in the playoffs. Very granular events count.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Even in the aggregate, a .909 SV% is nothing to write home about.
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No doubt. That’s legitimately below average, in point of fact.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
… it sucks to have Neuvirth be the reason the team is in the playoffs (look back at October and how important those wins were after the disastrous December) and just pull him out because Varlamov did well a few years ago before injuring himself several times over.
I can’t imagine that happening. If Varlamov is the G1 starter, it will be because he has played well immediately prior to the playoffs, not because of something he did a season or two ago.
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I get the same feeling about BB’s favoritism. I actually think it has soured me a bit on Varly, because it seems like BB just threw him in there in the past even when the goalie he was replacing could have done as well given a second chance (Theo in last year’s playoffs is mostly what I’m thinking of here, but that may open another can o’ worms)
by HockeyDragon on Mar 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The obvious thing to point out is that neither Flash nor Steckel are with the Caps anymore. BB decides who to play, but GMGM decides who BB gets to play with – so come post-season, as much as I like Varly, I can see how GMGM makes the case that he either doesn’t “need” Varly anymore or that he doesn’t sign Varly for an extension based on the fact that BB shows ridiculous favoritism.
I mean, BB loves Tyler Sloan, for gods sake.
by redpezrocket on Mar 21, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Because then you have a hurt starter and Neuvy is rusty because he was sitting on the bench instead of continuing his late season roll.
As you said, if Varly starts in Game 1 it’s because he played well immediately after coming back. If he can do that without getting rusty why not keep in the guy who is hot and if he falters throw in Varlamov?
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by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that if Neuvy stays hot that he’ll be the starter. But I think it’s too early to declare who’s going to be the guy, because there’s a lot of hockey left to be played. Anyone who is ready to pick their guy right now is too wed to preconceived notions, IMO. I’d like to see how these last games play out.
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Most definitely too early. I’m just stating why I think that if you have both goalies healthy and playing well, Neuvirth should get the nod. Those are pretty big ifs though.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 21, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone else think that it’s a little bit unsettling that 10 games left in the season is “too early to declare who’s going to be the guy”?
Nope. The lively debate here tells me that both goalies are “legitimately” great but that each brings something different tho’ no less valuable to the ice. I’m confident in both of them.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
both goalies are "legitimately" great
That might be a bit of an overstatement.
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by J.P. on Mar 21, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was kidding. I think both have great potential.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 21, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No. Good problem to have. I’d worry if it was “I hope someone can get hot.” But it’s not.
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If both are playing well, I’d platoon them. There I said it.
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I expect that to happen, so long as we play enough postseason games to warrant it.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Mar 21, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
great nooner, JP.
I think the net is the Truth’s to lose at this stage. It was unfortunate, in some respects, that he got a fleck of metal in his eye vs. TBL because he was finding his form, winning his preceding 4 starts with < 2 GAA. But he was solid in Jersey and I hope Bruce gives the kid some consistent work, at least 6 more games down the stretch (barring injury, etc.).
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Varlamov In the Playoffs
Varlamov was “forced” into action before he was ready and everyone tends to look back and feed the narrative that Varly was “great” in the playoffs or is a “big game” goalie. This is really only true for the Rangers series. In the Pitt series I believe he gave up at least 2 even strength goals and 1 PP goal every game and last year in the MTL series he was very average.
In reality I’m fine starting either goalie, a platoon, or a hot hand scenario. Just be aware that there is a lot of lore surrounding Varly that isn’t all that justified and based on track record Varly doesn’t have as clear an edge as you’d think if you were to poll the masses.
I thought he played pretty well for a rookie goalie against the eventual Cup champions. We all remember the save against Sid, and there were a couple other games where I thought he was “good enough to win” and kept the team in it. Scores in the PIT series:
WSH 3/2
WSH 4/3
PIT 3/2 OT
PIT 5/3
PIT 4/3 OT
WSH 5/4 OT
PIT 6/2
There wasn’t any game that I looked at and said “We lost that game because of Varlamov.”
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think that was a bit harsh on Varly. He was very good against PIT, had some bad luck (including ShaMo’s ass), and was over-used (should’ve gotten a game off in the back-to-backs).
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean it to insinuate we lost because of him, or be too harsh, only remind everyone that we didn’t necessary ride him to victory when we won either. I belive he’ll be better now 2011 Varly is a regular gray beard compared to 2009 Varly. Then again 2011 Neuvirth is going to be better then 2009 Varly too. Win-win is how I think of it.
Oh and the blue line is light-years beyond where that team was too which should help either goalie…
and was over-used
This is the part I find most frightening. Getting hot in the last few games of the season may turn out to be a bad thing for the whole team, unless someone follows a more careful goalie strategy into the playoffs.
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by CapitalCentre on Mar 21, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
not to excuse Varly, but in the Pitt series, the d-corps was practically non-existent. Poti and Erskine were skating on broken feet. Mike Green was Chubby McChubbyCheeks. TYLER SLOAN was called into duty, back when he was still spending most of his time riding the bus. ShaMo and Juice were regulars.
any injuries I missed?
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I believe ShaMo played with a broken jaw that series as well.
by HockeyGoalie29 on Mar 21, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
that was Philly. ShaMo might have had a broken foot that I’m forgetting about. Seems like everyone broke a foot against Pittsburgh.
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I think there’s an assumption that Varly will be “hot” when he comes back this week. I recall last Feb when he returned from a knee injury, he stunk against Ottawa, leading Bruce to call him out (it was that game that the comment “he’s made that play since he was 7 years old” came from). What if he doesn’t play well? Does Bruce keep throwing him out until he’s gets it right?
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Varly should get at least 2 or 3 starts before the regular season is over, regardless of his performance. If he’s bad all three times BB will have an easy choice.
It would be a mistake for the team not to give itself a decent sample size which which make this choice. There are teams down the stretch we can beat without a great goalie (Leafs, Florida, Florida, etc.)
What if he’s bad in 2 out of 3? Does Bruce give him another one to help him back, leaving Neuvy less games to get ready? If he was coming back in February, or even early March, it would be fine to keep throwing him out there. But my feeling is at this point it’s too late for him to take the lead role in the playoffs. Backup, fine. But this is Neuvy’s team.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
I’m not realty sure what “this is Neuvy’s team” means. The better goalie should play. Period.
And right now the important numbers tell us Varly is the better goalie. Check out Greenberg’s post for the Post today – every key stat points to Varly
by LucyImHome on Mar 21, 2011 4:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The numbers tell us Varly has been the better goalie. They don’t tell us how effective he will be coming off a month long layoff after injury, without a conditioning stint (for which he is not eligible because he’s not on Hershey’s Clear Day roster).
He may indeed be at the top of his game, in which case past numbers become important. But there’s not a lot of time for Varly to knock off rust as well as keeping Neuvy sharp in case he’s needed if Varly’s not at the top of his game.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
Does anyone have any info about buying playoff tickets? I heard here that they went on sale today, but I can’t find anything on the Caps site about it.
I got an email from my ticket rep Thursday saying they would be released today at 10:00am. He is supposed to email me today to iron out seats. Haven’t heard anything yet.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Mar 21, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
high priced packages went on sale today.
BTW, this should probably go in OT. just as an fyi.
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by RedBirdie on Mar 21, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What happens if a goalie gets hurt during the postseason? Like, if Varly goes down with injury, are we allowed to call up Holtby?
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I know many of you play(ed) the position and realize that the AHL and winning the Calder MVP are no small potatoes. Sure, the NHL is a step up but the playoff pressure is still there to perform for the fans, etc.. I think Neuvy has proven he can hang tough with the big boys, especially if he’s given a little support from the D. I’ll be happy to see him start for us in the playoffs.
"Don’t put your beer in the microwave, eh. It’ll boil."-Bob McKenzie
And, IIRC, the goalies Antii Niemii and Michael Leighton were both in their first NHL playoffs last June.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
I’m not anticipating another Ken Dryden performance from Neuvy but there was only one Ken Dryden (arguably the best ever, but Tretiak fans may differ) and there were fewer playoff rounds back then. As somebody said it’s a good controversy to have, unlike the Skins QB controversy.
"Don’t put your beer in the microwave, eh. It’ll boil."-Bob McKenzie
Full Disclosure
One of my Grandma’s was Czech. :=)
"Don’t put your beer in the microwave, eh. It’ll boil."-Bob McKenzie
I think the argument that Varly has NHL playoff experience and Neuvy doesn’t becomes a circular argument. (kind of like — how do you get a job? Have experience. How do you get experience? Have a job.) Varly gained the opportunity to show his post-season ability in 2009 in replacing Theo, who, at that point, had an NHL playoff resume (albeit not going deep). Varly, to his credit, performed well.
I think the rest of the season will be necessary to assess where each goalie is — both in performance and in health.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
Good point. How many playoff games did Varly have under his belt when he spelled Theo?
"Don’t put your beer in the microwave, eh. It’ll boil."-Bob McKenzie
by ExPatCapFan on Mar 21, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
GOD posted this yesterday from Hockey’s Future
2007-08: After attending Capitals camp, Varlamov was loaned to Yaroslavl in the RSL and took over the number one spot for Locomotiv. He was 27-15 with 3 shutouts playing in 44 games and had a 2.45 GAA and .909 save percentage for fifth-place Lokomotiv. Varlamov was even stronger in the playoffs as Yaroslavl made a surprising run to the championship round. In 16 playoff games, he posted 5 shutouts with a 1.62 GAA. Two of his five shutouts came in the best-of-five championship series with Salavat Yulayev. After stopping all 27 shots in a 3-0 win in the opener, Varlamov back-stopped Yaroslavl to a 1-0 win in Game 4 that temporary kept the club’s championship hopes alive. Salavat clinched the title with a 4-1 win in Game 5.
by vtcapsfan99 on Mar 21, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If Varly could stay healthy this wouldn’t even been a discussion.
I get the impression a lot of fans are loyal to Neuvy because he’s been a rock when Varly’s been injured. They are standing by the guy who was on the ice for more of the season and I respect that.
I think he deserves more credit than that – he’s done more than simply eaten up minutes.
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I think you’re looking for insults where they don’t exist. My saying Neuvy’s "a rock’ is a compliment. He certainly has done more than just eaten minutes.
But your suggestion that the Neuvy support came from a sense of loyalty and that the goalie question has arisen solely because Varly has been injured is belittling to Neuvy.
I am a believer in the skills and upside of both goalies, but pushed back on how you were characterizing Neuvy’s game. Each of them bring different skills to the table and I believe both have the potential to be the starting goalie. (I think that is true of Holtby as well but after more development in Hershey).
You are also assuming that but for his injuries Varly would have seized the starter position whereas I believe that management wanted a goaltending tandem throughout the season to best assess which goalie fit this team. The injuries to both of them merely complicated the matter and gave all of us an intriguing taste of Holtby.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 22, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I guess what I meant is that one player has 19 games of SC playoff experience and has had superior numbers during this past season (5th in the league in save percentage, for example). Despite those facts, a decent-sized contingent of fans are energetically and emotionally (see your use of “belittling”) supporting the other guy to start a Game 1.
I think this issue has arisen for two reasons: 1. Because Varly has been injured and 2. Because in his absence Neuvy has played very well.
I think Neuvy has been both good and reliable this season. Also I think people are sick of not being able to count on Varly for more than 30 games a year.
And if Varly had held his current .923 number all season you would not have seen a tandem. If he plays like that he gets 60-65 starts, IMO.
And if Varly had held his current .923 number all season you would not have seen a tandem. If he plays like that he gets 60-65 starts, IMO.
What if he held his current .455 win percentage (as opposed to Neuvy’s .605)?
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Hmm. I’m emotional because I use the word “belittle” to describe how I interpreted your use of the word “loyal” to define why I and other posters have defended Neuvy. I chose it instead of “dismissive” which I used yesterday. I do not consider either word terribly emotional.
Moreover, I thought many of the arguments in response to you in the lively debate yesterday (which BTW I thoroughly enjoyed reading) were quite thorough and well argued—and not on the basis of emotionality, including my own.
You are fond of hypotheticals, which cannot by definition be resolved, and for that reason I usually pay them little heed. Your assumption that had Varly stayed healthy he would have absolutely taken the starter position is still a hypothetical. Fact is: we will never know since he hasn’t stayed healthy. And until he gets a couple of starts to evaluate we still don’t know how good his current game is.
Finally, let me clear. I have no problem with the stats showing Varly’s has been stronger and that he has more NHL playoff experience than Neuvy. Nor would I be upset should he be tapped instead of Neuvy because he played better at the end of the season. (First jersey I bought was a no. 40 for my visit to Pittsburgh for his magnificent game against the Pens during that series—I have a bit of a fetish for goalies).
What I took issue with was how you determined that Varly should be the starter solely on the basis of those stats and how little value you gave to Neuvy’s strengths and his AHL playoff experience. You cannot simply dismiss his development and playoff experience up there, particularly as Neuvy didn’t just play well but “lights out” for his Hershey team.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 22, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
You are fond of hypotheticals, which cannot by definition be resolved, and for that reason I usually pay them little heed.
My guess is fan forums won’t be a lot of fun for you then. They are lousy with hypothetical arguments, lol
You seem to take the word emotional as some kind of insult and I meant it in just the opposite way. A lot of people are strongly supportive of Neuvy and I respect that. The E-word was not being used a pejorative.
The primary reason for my wanting Varly to start the in the playoffs is what I’ve seen from the two goalies this season, with a tiny side of SC Playoff background. For me it’s not that Neuvy should be taken out of the lineup because of his lack of SC Playoff games, it’s that Varly should be put in the lineup because of his. And there is a difference.
At the end of the day I definitely want us to take an obvious hot hand – whether that be Neuvy or Varly. But if there’s no clear-cut choice (and Varly’s healthy), I want Varly.
Fair enough. Especially with regards to “emotional.”
After watching that messy game last night I was grateful that our baby goaltenders are such a promising group and that their names don’t start with “B.”
As many have said: what a good problem to have when it comes to our dueling goalie tandem.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do."--epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Mar 23, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure why the Caps website lists Varly’s .923 Sv% as 5th in the league. The NHL.com stats also lists the his Sv% as .923, but lists it as 17th. This is on 667 shots against, which ranks 42nd. (This was in 24 games played, which ranks 43rd) But for the 2009-2010 regular season, his SV% was .909, on 718 shots, in 26 games.
The Caps website is lists Neuvirth’s SV% at .916, but ranking as 18th. The NHL.com website reports his rank as 34th. This is on 1145 Shots Against, which is 27th. He’s also 27th in games played in 2010-11, at 43. In the 2009-2010 season, he only played 17 NHL games, but he had a .914 SV% on 424 shots.
I’m willing to entertain the possibility that GAA might change from last season to this because the defensive style has changed. But I don’t know what would account for a fluctuation in SV% from .909 to .923. So I’m not willing to take this year’s save percentage by itself as an indication of what we might have seen from Varly if his numbers for games and shots against had been comparable to Neuvy’s.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
by miseenjeu on Mar 22, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not sure why the Caps website lists Varly’s .923 Sv% as 5th in the league. The NHL.com stats also lists the his Sv% as .923, but lists it as 17th.
Probably the other guys don’t have enough games to qualify?
Um — my point is that the Caps website and the NHL.com website have two different numbers for rankings. Have you taken followed the link to NHL.com? It lists 84 goalies with at least one game.
Your argument seems to put a lot of weight on relative rankings. I think it will be a lot stronger if you give an explanation for the difference between the Caps rankings and the NHL.com rankings — or an explanation of why the Caps rankings are more reliable.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
my point[the starting point I’m using] is that the Caps website and the NHL.com website have two different numbers for rankings.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
Click on ‘SV% Leaders’ on the nhl.com link you provided. Varly’s dropped to 6th. There’s a minimum shots-faced qualifier for the leaders. Thomas is leading the league in SV%, not some scrub who has a 1.000 SV% because he’s only faced 4 shots all year.
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Fair enough. I inferred that you meant that those supporting Neuvy do so only out of sentimentality or some other non-performance/talent-based rationale. My bad if that wasn’t the implication.
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The more I think about it
The more I think Bruce should do something similar to what he did last year with Theo and Varly.
If Neuvy stays hot and plays well, he should be the playoff starter. However, Varly should get a few starts before the regular season is over to get into a groove again of playing regularly.
You play Neuvy in the playoffs, he does well, problem solved. Neuvy plays bad (a la Theo last year), then you replace him with Varly.
Varly is a nice security blanket of sorts; albeit one that is made of something entirely flammable, though.
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by Steck It Out on Mar 21, 2011 11:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I bet this is Bruce’s line of thought if Neuvy keeps playing well. Question is then, how long of a leash does Neuvirth get? It will get interesting if the Caps drop Game 1.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 22, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the question would then be how Neuvy looks in goal. If he’s keeping them in that game, (and he spent the month of October demonstrating that he can do just that) and he’s been hot toward the end of the season, it’s a different scenario than either of the two playoff series with Theo.
Bruce started Varly in game two in 2009 because Theo looked shaky in game one, and had been inconsistent toward the end of the regular season. Last year, he pulled Theo after two iffy goals in game two, and didn’t start him in game three. IIRC, Varly wasn’t particularly sharp in the rest of game two (he did give up three goals), and may have been bailed out by the offense in OT. We’ll never know, but the fact that we were playing game three in Montreal where Theo was a controversial player may have had something to do with it. I think when Varly looked shaky in game six at Centre Bell, Bruce said he took a step toward Theo, but then he “calmed down”.
I’m not prepared to go through all of the recaps, but I think since Neuvy settled down after being pulled in back to back games in Florida in January 2010, he’s generally been solid in goal. I think he’s come out of games since then mostly when he’s taken himself out — when he’s told Bruce that he’s felt sick. But with the most recent game in Tampa, he stayed in the game after taking the puck to the mask, which affected his vision. While I wanted to smack him into the middle of the following week for taking that kind of chance with his vision, the fact that he could stay focused enough to function (I think he gave up one goal, but may have looked a little tentative in the 6 saves he made the rest of the period) does show he can keep his concentration going if he’s not feeling his best. That’s probably something that might come with veteran experience, but Neuvy may be bringing the ice water in his veins to bear.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
Lets face it. We all realize if the Caps win the Cup BB will be thought of as some kind of genius but if we fall short his head will roll. When it all comes down to it it’s up to to those boys out there on the rink. I always remember a game back at the old Cap Centre when we were playing the Bills back during the French Connection days. After the first period Marcel Pronovost (with every hair in pace of course )came off the bench with his team with the Caps somehow ahead. One of my buds shouted to him "Marcel, tell your boys put ze puck in ze net!) Needless to say we were blown out the rest of the game.
"Don’t put your beer in the microwave, eh. It’ll boil."-Bob McKenzie
Lets face it. We all realize if the Caps win the Cup BB will be thought of as some kind of genius but if we fall short his head will roll. When it all comes down to it it’s up to to those boys out there on the rink.
And that’s going to be true no matter who he puts in net.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
by miseenjeu on Mar 22, 2011 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We all realize if the Caps win the Cup BB will be thought of as some kind of genius but if we fall short his head will roll.
His head rolls if we lose in the first round. No head-rolling for BB if the Caps reach the third or fourth round of the SC playoffs, IMO. It should be Cup-or-bust this season. Not yet
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