I'm not exactly sure what this proves... but... E.Fehr is still my boy.

by JSchon on Mar 11, 2011 8:47 AM EST

As many Caps fans, I have wondered about the dramatic decline in point scoring and goals for by the Caps, individually and as a team. Without looking at the numbers I thought for sure that goal scoring was down league wide. I was right, a whopping 1.4%, not exactly what I was expecting. Now that 1.4% was based off of a 3 year league average (as will all other numbers I compare current numbers too).

Lets start with the man that has won more personal hardware over the last 4 years than any other player, one Alexander Ovechkin. While he is sitting currently in 5th place in points overall in the league, his numbers show that his point production is down 25%. In 2007/08, 08/09 and 09/10, Ovechkin average an impressive 1.42 ppg average, now it has dipped to 1.06 ppg. Why? System? Predictability? Lack of effort?

Ovechkin isn't the only Cap suffering from a significant drop in production. Nick Backstrom broke out last season with a 100+ point season leaving us of thoughts of him being a top 3 center league wide. Well Backstrom's production is down 22% from his 3 year average. Now he has been hampered with some nagging injuries, but 22% is a significant number.

The other Alex is down too, 15% vs his 3 year average. Brooksy is down as well, 13%.

That brings us to Mike Green who has either completely redefined himself or is skating around with some missing pieces. Green's point production has taken a nose dive, a staggering 47%. Think about 47% for a minute, that's crazy. If I was 47% younger I'd be 21. With all of this said however, I'm not exactly upset with Green's play over the season. He certainly has more than tweaked his style of play.

But, Mike Green's decline in point production is a huge factor in the teams overall goal scoring decline, and vice versa, Green's new defense first mentality has also contributed to the teams overall improvement in goals against, I think?

Now what does this have to do with E.Fehr, my boy?

I only picked players to compare that are counted on for scoring and that are trending up. No Knuble or 3rd or 4th liners. E.Fehr still is playing mostly on the 3rd line but is getting more PP time with the departure of Flash. E.Fehr's has only a 8% drop in his 2 year production. Not exactly what I was expecting looking at his numbers.

My conclusion? 8 19 16.

	07/08	08/09	09/10	3yr avg	10/11
Ovechkin	1.36	1.39	1.513	1.42	1.06	-0.25
Backstrom	0.84	1.07	1.23	1.05	0.82	-0.22
Semin	0.67	1.27	1.15	1.03	0.87	-0.15
Laich	0.45	0.65	0.76	0.62	0.54	-0.13
Green	0.68	1.07	1.01	0.92	0.49	-0.47
Fehr		0.41	0.56	0.49	0.45	-0.08

WAS	2.95	3.32	3.88	3.38	2.69	-0.2
NHL	2.72	2.85	2.77	2.78	2.74	-0.014

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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As last season went along, it felt like Knuble was not only brought in to perform, or to bring leadership to the club, but to also tutor players like Fehr on how to .. well.. replace him down the line. I’ve since viewed Fehr as the player that would fill that top line role with 8 and 19. Now it’s just a matter of actually putting him there.

by TFG on Mar 11, 2011 10:21 AM EST reply actions

You guys aren’t the only one that recommend placing #16 on the top line. Neil Greenberg from “Russian Manchine Never Breaks” had written a statistical analysis which reached that same conclusion (with Semin the 2nd best choice in that department).

I like Knuble. He has great value as a veteran and a mentor. And has made many contributions to that line. But I figure the job of RW on the first line will go to a younger man for next year, with Fehr and Semin the leading candidates.

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Mar 12, 2011 9:42 AM EST reply actions

Fehr...

The plan all along was that Fehr would be the RW to Ovechkin and Backstrom. George drafted him with that in mind. The only thing holding Fehr back so far have been the series of injuries he has had. He’s really played only one complete season (last season) where he was relatively injury free.

Plus Fehr really likes playing against the Pens and eats them alive…. can’t beat that.

Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 25, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

The plan all along was that Fehr would be the RW to Ovechkin and Backstrom. George drafted him with that in mind.

Fehr was drafted a year before Ovechkin and 3 years before Backstrom…

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Mar 25, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sure that was the point on draft day, but it’s easy to see the brass target Fehr for that sort of development at least once he hit the A.

by leacha on Mar 25, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

On Fehr, recent events have shown one thing. We do a whole lot better with Fehr in the lineup than we do with DJ King. Even though no one wanted to admit it to the press, including Fehr himself, methinks Fehr got hurt again in the Flyers game.

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Mar 25, 2011 10:54 PM EDT reply actions