FanPost

Score Effects on Caps EV Scoring Chance %

I read BtN Score Effects on Even-Strength Shooting Percentage and am just now getting around to seeing if my scoring chance data exhibits the same characteristics. Granted, using shot data for the entire NHL is going to give you smoother transitions, but perhaps this tells us how the Washington Capitals play in different game states. 

Since I don't count empty net goals I won't be able to show any convert% data, but here is the scoring chance info. For those that may not know, I use what is becoming the standard definition of a scoring chance:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. Vic Ferrari makes this all possible  with his tools to evaluate Corsi, head-to-head ice time and scoring chances.

Scoring chance percentage is simply chances-for divided by total chances during even strength.

Period
Margin 1 2 3
-2 47.1% 55.2% 68.3%
-1 46.0% 50.5% 64.9%
0 49.1% 52.6% 47.5%
1 66.1% 48.0% 53.8%
2 50.0% 53.4% 31.0%

 

As I said, the sample size may be preventing smoother transitions from state to state. However, the data shows that Boudreau was probably correct (not that there was a reason to doubt him) when he said on 24/7 that the Caps tend to hang their heads when faced with early adversity.

See any other patterns?

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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