The Noon Number

44 - Shots on goal Alex Semin has registered in the 15 games since scoring his last goal (on November 28), equaling his 44 unsuccessful shots on goal in last year's playoffs

over 1 year ago J.P. 31 comments 0 recs |

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So what are the odds?

As we discussed not long ago, there’s a 0.1% chance that a guy with a career 14.5% shooting percentage over 1,021 shots on goal is going to follow that up with an 0-for-44.

Now he’s done it twice in a 47-game/175-SOG span.

That’s absolutely bizonkers.

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by J.P. on Feb 9, 2011 11:57 AM EST reply actions

Do these numbers take the ‘Trending Sasha’ variable into account?

by TFG on Feb 9, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

I think you have to take into account that Boudreau said Semin played injured for 3 weeks before he finally stopped playing. An injured Semin likely doesn’t have a 14.5% shooting percentage. I’d make a bigger deal out of this if Semin goes 44 shots after his return without any goals.

I actually found the RMNB analysis of the streakiness of Semin and Ovechkin quite interesting, because he concluded Semin is consistent and Ovie is streaky.

by vtcapsfan99 on Feb 9, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Even Boudreau got fuzzy about how long Semin had played injured. He couldn’t recall whether it was early or late Dec.

From what I can recall, Semin missed the practice before the Blues game on Dec 1 due to a “nagging” condition. We never got any specified detail on what it was but he hadn’t produced a goal since then. He (and Backstrom) missed the practice before the Avs game (Dec 11) due to the flu. He played Dec 12 against the Rangers but missed the next 3 games before coming back against the Devils (Dec 21), likely prematurely, given that his return for that game was “doubtful”. Did he hurt his groin in the Rangers’ game or was it a continuation (or aggravation) of the previous nagging condition.

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by CapsFan75 on Feb 9, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions

How do you account for shots that should have been goals except for a blatantly bad whistle blowing the play dead?

by cainoo7x on Feb 9, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

quickest whistle in the west sure helped that number along

Refs allow play to continue....

by Truculence on Feb 9, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

Woulda been MP’s goal anyway

You had me at no problem.

by Ninjak on Feb 9, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Based on the replay I don’t think MP85 ever touched it before Niemi kicked it across the goal line himself. But, maybe if the whistle isn’t blown, Niemi doesn’t kick it in and MP85 gets it. Tough to say.

by cainoo7x on Feb 9, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

How does this relate to RMNB’s “Streaky Semin” posts? To me, this tends to support the fact that he’s streaky if he’s had two streaks that are less than .1% likely. Or is this just an anomaly that isn’t statistically significant and doesn’t change the picture regarding Sasha’s streakiness?

"Uh, 'scuse me miss, I didn't order no 'gratuity' and nobody at my table did, so I ain't payin' for it."

by Rob Parker on Feb 9, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

Two independent, remarkably unlikely events (surrounding a 25-game/18-goal/90-SOG stretch). Does it pass that laugh test to say the guy doesn’t run hot and cold?

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by J.P. on Feb 9, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

You know my answer.

"Uh, 'scuse me miss, I didn't order no 'gratuity' and nobody at my table did, so I ain't payin' for it."

by Rob Parker on Feb 9, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

Wait…

0.1% chance…twice

By God, JP, I do believe you’ve proven (mathematically, even) that Sasha is one in a million.

by brooksengr on Feb 9, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Thats when you got to pay the price…get in there and get a dirty goal……..

Tough as nails Semin, Tough as nails!

by SA-Town on Feb 9, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions

Is there anyway to see how many of the shots are quality shots? as opposed to bad sasha just throwing the puck towards the net.

by vt caps fan on Feb 9, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions

If such a thing as shot quality exists, you can get paid to prove it.

by cajuncook on Feb 9, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think there’s any dispute that shot quality exists at the individual level. The elite guys definitely drive S% to some degree. The problem is sustaining that at the team level.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

And then you have to consider the different dynamics at ES, PP, 5v3, different game situations. It’s a big complex matter.

"Uh, 'scuse me miss, I didn't order no 'gratuity' and nobody at my table did, so I ain't payin' for it."

by Rob Parker on Feb 9, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

It doesn’t make 0-44 any less absurd.

by cajuncook on Feb 9, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions

No, it certainly doesn’t.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

With Semin’s wrister, if it is on goal it is a quality shot.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Feb 9, 2011 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

took him 15 games to go 0-for-44 this time? Slacking Euro!

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by RedBirdie on Feb 9, 2011 12:24 PM EST reply actions

Even though this noon time number provides no meaningful insight into the game of hockey, somehow I think it more informative than the smartest thing Barry Melrose has ever said.

Everything sounds smarter in Tikkanesse....

by Bonzai!!! on Feb 9, 2011 1:24 PM EST reply actions

Uh, thanks?

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by J.P. on Feb 9, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Well, it was a dig at Melrose not you :) I just don’t see what I get out of this noontime number other than an incredible coincidence (and a rehilighting of Semin’s scoring troubles back in the spring…). That’s ok. It’s entertaining nonetheless.

Everything sounds smarter in Tikkanesse....

by Bonzai!!! on Feb 9, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

I just hope this guy can get hot in the playoffs…it will be tough to win with a 6 million dollar floater that wont adjust to break a slump.

by SA-Town on Feb 9, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

How about this experiment: flip the line assignments for the Sashas. While Semin gets critiqued for being a floater, that’s only really true in the offensive zone (i.e., he doesn’t crash the net much). Defensively, he’s pretty sound and aggressive for such an offense-minded winger. Offensively, I think he’s starved for better linemates, especially for ones who can score from some of the ridiculous sauce he’s capable of dishing out, and also for teammates who know how to get into the offensive zone when he’s carried the puck over the blue line.

Meanwhile, Ovi (from Great 8 to Good 8 this year) is floating at both ends and has been incredibly selfish in the offensive zone since the midway of the Montreal series last year, continuing to insist on trying to puck handle 1 on 3 and 1 on 4 while taking the zone. He can’t seem to shoot straight and hence is not making much of Backis’ service. Maybe he’d get a chance to feast a bit on lower QualComp. His slightly higher level of willingness to get dirty would benefit whomever our 2C flavor of the week is.

Semin as LW1 and Ovi as LW2 for a couple weeks — why not?

by CarlosLA on Feb 9, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions

To that point, I watched Ovechkin miss six or seven one timers in a row from the slot in warmups yesterday. Like, flat out miss the net. There’s definitely something wrong with his shot control.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

plus seems like he busts his twig a lot more frequently this year. I don’t know whether he’s changed hardware or he’s lost something in the accuracy of the swing (e.g., hitting the ice too early).

by CarlosLA on Feb 9, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn’t be opposed to trying that out, but I don’t think it will affect the QualComp. AO’s line will always be line 1 and the target of the opposition.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Feb 9, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

And numerically, his QoC (by Corsi) can’t get much lower—already lowest on the team. He used to be a 20 Corsi player like that, but no longer :(

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by red army line on Feb 9, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions