Sunday Caps Clips: Pens @ Caps Game Day
by EmilyB on Feb 6, 2011 8:51 AM EST
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PrintYour savory Sunday brunch links:
- Previews of today's Super Sunday promenade with Pittsburgh from Vogs, NHL.com (Masisak), CSN Washington (Raby), WaPo (Carrera), SB Nation DC, WC2010, CRtC, and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner Pensburgh for more coverage from the other side of today's match-up.
- Travel alert - no snowbanks this year but plenty of obstacles for the folks headed to the game today. [CapsNewsNetwork, Dr. Gridlock]
- Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday's practice. [Alex Ovetjkin (video), CI (Carrera), CI (Carrera), bridgetDS (pix), Caps 'Round the Clock]
- Pens-Caps game notes, get yer Pens-Caps game notes here. [WashCaps Media]
- Five storylines for Round Three, with a stick salute for the hard-working farmhands on both teams. [NHL.com (Rosen)]
- Are we looking at a first-round playoff preview? [PHT]
- Fiery! plus Brooks Orpik softens his stance. [Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (DiPaola)]
- Intensity! and why the game probably won't go into overtime. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Anderson)]
- A Winter Classic rematch and two teams in the process of reinventing themselves. [ProHockeyTalk]
- You again? The Caps-Pens rivalry catches its second wind. [RtR]
- Streaky, inconsistent, yet always an extremely dangerous opponent. That's our Caps ... [Versus]
- ... and they're not quite inclined to surrender that division title either. [Kukla's Korner]
- Where's the secondary scoring? [Toronto Sun]
- The multitalented Mike Knuble: Penguin Killer, Juice Boy. [Net Asset]
- Is Alex Semin a streaky shooter? Too bad we can't test that out today. [RMNB]
- Evgeny Kuznetsov stole the show in St. Petersburg, Russia yesterday, with an exuberant tour-de-force display in the Breakaway Challenge (video below the jump) and then a 1g, 4a performance for the victorious Team Jagr in the KHL All-Star Game. His goal was an empty netter scored at the 59 minute, 59 second mark, and his four assists went to Sergei Fedorov (2), Good-Friend-of-Ovi Ilya Nikulin, and Harder-Shot-Than-Chara champ Denis Kulyash.
- Cody Eakin had a nice night, too. [Buzzing the Net]
- Happy 57th birthday, Bob Sirois.
- And finally, today marks the final home game with Nate Ewell at the helm of the Capitals' award-winning communications department. We wish him a fond farewell and bid him good journey. Thanks, again, for everything.
(More below the jump)
KHL All Star Game 2011 Evgeny Kuznetsov Breakaway Challenge Winner (via videoKHL)
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Another reason not to like the Pens
These attempts to claim the moral high ground are ludicrus. So Orpik softened his stance? Kinda like a flat earther saying the earth might be bowed but not really round. And Johnny (for all that I like him as a good ex-Cap) saying he needed to stick up for Cooke? I feel like the world’s upside down!
A danger to myself and others on the ice
It’s a pretty interesting 180 by Orpik. I’d be curious to know if it was just him coming to his senses or if someone from the organization told him to cool the revenge talk.
Chinese New Year Parade, street closures, Metro construction delays, Super Bowl traffic, 12:30 start
I picked a great game to go to.
Ah yes, the driving force behind my tickets being twice the price.
by TFG on Feb 6, 2011 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
Let’s hope that Ovie’s nearly 3-hour long goalless drought on the power play at home comes to a halt today. I smell 30-in-30 to close out the season…
You had me at no problem.
Today will be a very good test, especially coming off the Tampa game. Pittsburgh’s forward lineup may be a collection of fourth liners and Jordan Staal, but their defense is intact and Fleury stats suggest he’s actually a decent goalie. Then add in that we’ll be seeing the league’s top two penalty kills.
by TFG on Feb 6, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
Found a long version of KHL shootout video here.
"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH
Thanks! I’m looking for video of Zhenya’s empty netter too.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Perfect!
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Hard to beleive a good portion of the NHL is missing out on russian talent because of the KHL. Though even Kuz said it himself, without Ovechkin he might not want to come to the NHL at all.
I’d love to see a 2nd line of Kuznetsov, Johansson and Semin with either 90 or Kuz centering next season. Those soft euro’s will take the canadians by storm!
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Both Kuz and Mackan would need to get a lot stronger for that line to work.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Kuz is only 18 and very weedy. He needs some bulk.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Definitely don’t want to rush him. Especially considering how much an older and bulkier Mackan has had to work on protecting the puck. But I am excited by his promise.
Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do.
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Evidence of Ovechkin-Crosby bias?
Last season, Alex Ovechkin missed time due to suspension/injury. Because of the team’s strong record in his absence, the media used this as evidence that the team around him was a fantastic team in its own right and counted this fact against him in Hart Trophy consideration. In fact, this was also used as evidence that Ovechkin<Crosby, due to the fact that this proved that the team around Ovechkin is stronger than the team around Crosby. In his absence, the Caps went 7-2-1, which for our purposes is 7 wins, 3 losses, and a winning percentage of 0.700.
This season, Sidney Crosby has missed many games due to a concussion, yet he has not endured any of the same criticism as Ovechkin did. Since the game he got his concussion on January 5th, the Penguins have gone 8-3-1, which for our purposes is 8 wins and four losses. That’s a winning percentage of 0.667.
CAPITALS WITHOUT OVECHKIN: 0.700
PENGUINS WITHOUT CROSBY: 0.667
For anyone who believes there is a pro-Crosby, anti-Ovechkin bias, there you go.
I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. Who in the media? Everyone? It can’t be everyone. Show me examples. Provide evidence. Talking about perception is one thing, but you’re trying to make a fact-based argument with no facts.
And I do believe there’s a difference in missing games for injury, versus missing them for suspension.
If wishes were horses, we'd all be eating steak.
by Hang a Laingtern on Your Problems on Feb 6, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
The post was argued too generally but he is right in terms of the general media meme that the Caps were a strong team with or without Ovi in the lineup. And much of that meme was based on how well the team did when Ovi was out early in the season due to injury—it was 6 or 8 games more than he lost to suspension. By the end of the season this perception was the prevailing narrative, that he wasn’t the best MVP candidate.
Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do.
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
I should add that I thought the right player won the Hart last season.
Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do.
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
I thought you could make a pretty convincing argument for both finalists that didn’t win the Hart, but not the guy that actually took home the hardware. Interested in hearing your reasoning.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 6, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
That’s where I come down. Sedin had a great year, but I would have had him at 3rd or lower in that voting.
Go Steelers.
Honestly I thought it was a toss-up between Ovi and Crosby but I thought both teams were still strong even without their stars respectively.
And athough I didn’t catch that many of the Vancouver games I was impressed by H. Sedin’s racking up of points when his brother was injured. Seemed to me that he carried the team through a tough period and despite losing his key pairing. I don’t necessarily agree that his assists (and secondary assists) made his point total less valuable because both Ovi and Crosby dominated on the goal front. What I don’t really know is how good the Vancouver team was without H. Sedin.
I probably also felt a bit of the “if not Ovi then I’m rooting for Sedin.”
Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do.
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
By no means is this meant to be an indictment of the sports media or sports fans in general. I agree that this is nowhere near sufficient evidence to prove anything. In fact, there are many variables that would need to be considered, such as strength of schedule, that are not considered in an overly general post like mine. I’m sorry it seemed like I thought I was a journalist straight out of All the President’s Men. I’ll learn more advanced metrics and then try to do that.
That being said, the winning percentage w/o Ovechkin is a common tactic used by pro-Crosby people as conclusive evidence the team around Ovechkin is better than the team the Penguins have around Crosby. The fact is, this is inconclusive. There really isn’t a definitive metric to determine strength of team because there are so many variables (coach, system, etc.) that would be impossible to put into statistics. Our best hope as fans (and as I have seen typically on this blog) is to decide that both players are fantastic, we’re lucky to get to watch them, and there are too many variables to decide one is better than the other. There needs to be an attitude of “Let cooler heads prevail” from the media (such as ESPN, NBC, VS), rather than the Crosby>Ovechkin rhetoric there is now.
I think the post was just a bit too much rant. The media narrative may fawn on Crosby too much for my taste but he was having an unbelievably good year before his concussion.
What I took issue with was the idea that there is a concerted effort on part of the media as a collective entity to dismiss Ovi’s team contribution last season versus Crosby’s this season. I will accept that there is a general bias towards Crosby accolades but I can think of many individuals in the media who admire Ovi. Just as there are certain individuals who can’t stand Ovi, For example Milbury, But even he just can’t generate that much venom at this time.
Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do.
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone interested in going to the game today? I have two tickets for 150, the caps shoot twice, email me!
I tweet far too much. Follow me!
USA beat Canada because more kids in the US are playing hockey and the USA hockey system is producing better hockey players to compete with the Canadian youth hockey system, not because Ray Bourque got his fuck on in Boston. -Killer_Carlson
Story floating around is that Joe B. was just on Parker & Parker on 106.7 and all but said he has been let go from Versus.
by freakinandpeakin on Feb 6, 2011 10:20 AM EST reply actions
It’s not mentioned directly in Puck Daddy’s story, but if you read between the lines…
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
He doesn’t just do hockey for them, he also does some college football.
"It's always good to have vikings."
"The Caps fan doesn't say, 'is the glass half full' or 'is the glass half empty'. He wonders when the glass is going to spill."
Lacrosse too.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Feb 6, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
There is also buzz from the same that he may be out at Comcast as well. JUST A RUMOR
by freakinandpeakin on Feb 6, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
A rumor being circulated by SB Nation DC and now all over Twitter :(
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
He sounded “down?” Well that can’t be good.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Feb 6, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
But CSN too? What would be the rationale of removing Joe B. from the regular CSN Caps broadcasts?
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Feb 6, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
Why pay another salary when they have people on board who can handle the gig?
"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH
There is a lot of local CSN teams around the league though, it will be interesting to see how many they replace. It doesn’t help that most of the NBC people are terrible.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Exactly. Joe B. actually does a pretty good job (IMO) with the broadcasts. The folks from NBC and some of the guys on VS are horrible. I especially don’t want to see any of Pierre McGuire.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Feb 6, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
The hosts of the show said they contacted a high ranking Caps offiical and the only response they got was that they love Joe B. (or something to that effect). They re-contacted that person to ask if Joe B. was out and no response so far.
I missed the interview, but according to the hosts he got “choked up” when they read a tweet from a fan saying he was the best in the business. He also said it was bad news.
by freakinandpeakin on Feb 6, 2011 10:42 AM EST reply actions
One more argument for the Monumental sports channel, I know letting the team select it’s own TV guys doesn’t always work, but it’s got to be better than letting that idiot Ebersol do it, and I think he may be taking over all sports stuff for Comcast.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Feb 6, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Should Kuznetsov play for the Caps – he must not be allowed to wear #92. Nothing short of a freaking hockey dynamo can erase my memory of Nylander wearing that jersey number.
"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH
I think I said this yesterday, but #92 generally has bad associations with DC area sports teams.
At least Nylander was a class act about his exit from the organization – something I can’t say for his Redskins Voldemort he-who-shall-not-be-named-owned football team.
Definite props to RMNB for the two Semin consistency posts. The Semin Lobby should definitely have both posts bookmarked. I’m still digesting them and trying to see how much to make of them, but you can’t knock the effort.
Go Steelers.
I’ve been kicking around the idea of modeling Semin that way, in the two-state method. What Neil’s done is a simulation where we know what his two states are (for the purposes of the simulation). There are methods to figure out what the states are most likely to be looking at the data, but the algorithms underneath of it are often pretty hairy.
The other interesting thing you can figure out with the Hidden Markov Model methodology is how likely it is that the player is to transition out of the state from each individual state.
For Alex Semin, I’m not sure I’d limit the simulation to his exact shot distribution – hot Sasha and cold Sasha generate different shots and have different workrates, and especially have different penalty deltas (I think)
Definitely have to give Neil some props for this work, though. It’s a great way to start modeling players (and I’m really curious to see other players modeled)
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 6, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
For Alex Semin, I’m not sure I’d limit the simulation to his exact shot distribution – hot Sasha and cold Sasha generate different shots and have different workrates, and especially have different penalty deltas (I think)
I appreciate the concern, but the flipside is that our hypothesis has been that there is two different Sashas. If the common logic says he shows up as one guy sometimes and shows up as another guy other times then doesn’t it help to look at two different numbers? Where I think the bigger problem lies is in setting the baselines.
I’ve hesitated to read too much into the numbers, and I’ve been clear about that, but I do think there’s interesting stuff there and I would love to see if more people did this with their team’s streaky scorer like TOR did.
Go Steelers.
Definite props to RMNB for the two Semin consistency posts.
Thanks!
I would love to see if more people did this with their team’s streaky scorer like TOR did.
I did the same process for Kessel over at PPP as a fan shot: Is Phil Kessel A Streaky Shooter?
Blogger for Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) and WaPo's Capitals Insider
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
So why did you choose the relative shooting percentages for hot and cold Sasha? And why did you weight it to assume 90% that he wouldn’t change Sashas mid-season?
Go Steelers.
I did 150% of his avg Sh% up and down – no other reason. I used 90% because I wanted extreme streakiness.
There was one sim where he had only 15% of his games “hot” but still ended up with a 40 goal “82-game season.” I thought that was interesting.
Blogger for Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) and WaPo's Capitals Insider
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
There’s absolutely no question that it’s interesting stuff; if I’m causing anyone to infer that I think otherwise, allow me to disabuse them of that notion right here. Neil’s doing very good work at RMNB.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 6, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Neil’s doing very good work at RMNB.
I appreciate the kudos and feedback. Maybe they’ll give me a raise?
Blogger for Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) and WaPo's Capitals Insider
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I appreciate your posts on Semin. (Yes, I admit to being part of the Semin lobby.) But I appreciate your posts on other topics as well. I’m also a member of the Ovi lobby as well (and other Caps players to numerous to mention.)
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
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![Via Traktor Chelyabinsk's website, here's Evgeny Kuznetsov graciously accepting a handmade hat from some of his fans.
The Traktor fans were aware of the NA tradition of the hat trick,and in honor of his strong performance at World Juniors, they made him one of his very own:
"It is known that the ocean [overseas leagues - ed.] has a tradition: after the execution of a hat-trick fans throw on the ice caps. Hat-trick in a literal translation - "hat trick". Kuznetsov played in the World Cup just two such trick: in the group stage, he scored 3 goals in the gate the Latvian team, and in the semi-finals three times, struck the gate of Canada. These two points are noted."
More awesome pix at the link.](http://cdn3.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/235874/kuzya20130112_small.jpg)
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