I think it's late enough in the season to start speculating :)
For me it's a tie between:
JEFF SKINNER (C, CAR): 61 games, 22 goals, 24 assists, (46 pts) -1 but not bad for a team that's -11 so far.
BRAD MARCHAND (C, BOS) 57 games, 19 goals, 15 assists (34 points). Only 5th in points but leads rookies in +/-.
Hall is playing well and has some flashy goals. Grabner leads rookies in goals, but that isn't going to mean too much in such a tight goal/points race, though. In the end I think the winner will come down to considering how well a rookie is doing compared to his team. I think Skinner just looks so comfortable, consistent, and confident out there. For me... it's SKINNER.
Will a goalie win it this year? I doubt it. CRAWFORD and BOBROVSKY have good #'s and their teams probably wouldn't be where they are now without them, but I just don't see a goalie winning it this year.
There are some good defensemen in the running. Carlson has shown wisdom beyond his age and leads all rookie defensemen in +/- with an excellent +17. I can definately see him at least getting nominated in the top 3. And you can't talk Carlson without mentioning Subban, Fowler, and Shattenkirk. These guys are rookie D ahead of Carlson in points, but if you must judge a D man by stats, I'd save +/- would be a better stat to go by if you compare them to their team's overall differential. If a D man *IS* going to win it, Carlson is a +17 while his team is +12. Subban is -6 but his team is +8. Shattenkirk is -11 while his team is -10. Fowler is -21. and the ducks are -8. I just don't see a rookie D winning unless he is (a) + and (b) performs close to or above his overall team differential. Carlson has respectable goals and assist for a defenseman, let alone a rookie defenseman. Do you guys see Carlson getting nominated? Or do you you see the NHL being more biased towards goals/assists?