The Noon Number

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 12:01 PM EST in The Noon Number

OTTAWA, CANADA - DECEMBER 7: Karl Alzner #27 of the Washington Capitals drops to the ice to block a shot as team mate Tomas Vokoun #29 defends the net during an NHL game at Scotiabank Place on December 7, 2011 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images)

.924- Capitals' shorthanded save percentage over the last 14 games, a dramatic turnaround from the .858 save percentage the team had over the first 18 games of the season. A few more notes on the recent penalty-killing success:

Over the 14-game span, the Caps have killed off 40 of 45 shorthanded opportunities (88.9%), including 30 of 34 since Dale Hunter took over behind the bench.
Discard the brutal 3-for-6 night the team had against the Panthers in Sunrise and the Caps have killed off 94.9% of their penalties over the other 13 games in this stretch.
Despite his well-documented struggles, Tomas Vokoun has stopped 32 of the 33 power-play shots he's faced in this set.
The team has a ~~1.60~~ 3.97 goals against average on the kill over the last 14 games, down from 8.07 mark that preceded it.
Karl Alzner, the team's leader in shortanded ice time, has been on the ice for only two power-play goals against since November 19. John Carlson, who's right behind him in SH TOI, has been on for one since that date. Mike Knuble, who's surprisingly third among forwards in penalty-killing ice time, has been on for one goal-against in that situation since October 27. Joel Ward has been on for two since opening night.

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Outstanding, really…I still want to see Sasha Minor log more than 0.00 minutes of SHTOI, particularly since he’s fallen off the PP charts as well.

Cross check and all call.

by bigonetimer on Dec 22, 2011 12:06 PM EST reply actions

I’m sure Sasha Minor will resume his spot in PP when he passes up Chimmer in goals scored for the year.

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Dec 22, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

So here’s a question I’ve got – why is Joel Ward getting less SH TOI than Mike Knuble and the same as Troy Brouwer and Matt Hendricks? I actually haven’t checked what the numbers under Dale look like (hint hint… someone), but it struck me as odd.

And, fwiw, he’s won 56% of 32 draws, so while FO ability might explain Hendy, to an extent, it’s not as if Ward’s a complete disaster when pressed into action in the dot.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 12:09 PM EST reply actions

Alright, I did the research myself. Under Hunter, here are your top-eight penalty-killing forwards, by average SH TOI:

21: 2.58
19: 2.40
15: 2.06
20: 1.78
22: 1.21
25: 0.94
42: 0.52
26: 0.35

Oh, and Ward has an awesome GAON/60. I don’t get it.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

I wonder if some of that could be because Ward has been in the box for a few of the penalities being killed of late.

by icehammer97 on Dec 22, 2011 1:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

He’s had four minors under Hunter. Chimera has had five, by comparison.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

Ha, that was going to be my question, how many times was he not an option, but I see JP answered already.

by sk84fun_dc on Dec 22, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, definitely some impact there, but not enough to make it all make sense in my wee little mind.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

I think I am missing something. How can the GAA on the kill be 8.07? I can see it being above one if they score twice on a major penalty or something…but 8.07?

This must be calculated differently than I thought…

I like Laich, but I <3 Green
Keep the faith!!!!!!

by RockinRed4Life on Dec 22, 2011 1:28 PM EST reply actions

GAA is goals against per 60 minutes, so for every 60 minutes ok pk time we gave up over 8 goals not over 8 goals per pk

by icehammer97 on Dec 22, 2011 1:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t follow. It’s the same formula used to compute any normal GAA – (GA*60)/MIN. In this case, GA is PPGA and MIN is shorthanded minutes.

Think of it this way – if the Caps allowed a goal one-minute into a minor penalty, they’d have one GA and one minute on the kill. If they kill the next minor, they’re at one GA, three minutes shorthanded. And so on. It’s just pro-rating to sixty minutes the average numbers of goals allowed. But I screwed up – the number is actually 3.97. I’ll fix that…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I was confused myself, I figured it was per 60 but the math in my head led to a number north of 3…

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Dec 22, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Ohh, okay. I thought the normally GAA was just counted that way because a standard game is 60 minutes, and that the GAA would be based on the number of minutes on the kill…not always out of 60.

Thanks for the clarification.

I like Laich, but I <3 Green
Keep the faith!!!!!!

by RockinRed4Life on Dec 22, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

As to Knuble, he is rested and ready from playing so little the rest of the game.

by sk84fun_dc on Dec 22, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions

Indeed. Somehow he’s too old and slow to get a decent shift at fives, but is great for the kill.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Yet, here you are advocating he lose ice time to #42; ok, I know that’s not what you are saying, but it was my reaction to reading the twitter version of this.

by sk84fun_dc on Dec 22, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I am advocating that, yes. Ward is a better PKer than Knuble. My remark above is more about the coaching staff’s (both staffs, really) deployment of Knuble.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Ok, so my first reaction was correct. I haven’t looked at the detailed stats, but I thought Knuble was still an effective PKr. True if it means more 5v5 time for 22, I’d be ok with less PK time, but I’m ok with him on the PK.

I don’t have the time right now to look at detailed stats, but in terms of Ward being in the box and TOI, the non-kill PKs also impact the TOI so curious how it all plays out.

by sk84fun_dc on Dec 22, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, Knuble’s having a nice year on the PK, though he’s benefiting from astronomically good goaltending luck.

And it’s not so much Knuble, it’s Chimera and Brouwer even moreso who I simply don’t think are better PKers than Ward and thus shouldn’t be getting more minutes.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

My gut reaction on Brouwer is similar, but have to look at numbers later, don’t have time now.

by sk84fun_dc on Dec 22, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Who gets bumped out of the top six for him at this point? Surely not Ovi or Backstrom. Not Brouwer either. MarJo? Semin? Send Laich back down despite Tuesday’s performance?

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Dec 22, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

At the moment, I wouldn’t change a thing – everything worked on Tuesday, so until it doesn’t work any more, run with it.

But I don’t think Laich as Ovechkin’s center is long-term sustainable. At some point, they probably need to go back to Backstrom-Johansson as their top two centers (in whatever combination), and at that point, Knuble would be one of my top-two RWs.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

So you would like 8-19-20 and 28-90-22 – or 22 and 20 switched – for the long term.

Just out of curiosity, why don’t you think Laich is “long-term sustainable”?

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Dec 22, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Or MoJo with Ovi or 8-19-22 or any combo that clicks (and when it doesn’t, shake the six up again).

I don’t think Laich is a creative enough playmaker to bring the best out of Ovi and it’s likely going to force Ovi to carry the puck more, which isn’t something I’m in favor of.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

I actually would like so see 8-21-90 and 28-19-20 each line has a shooter in the Alexes a playmaker in the Sweeds and 21 and 20 are the lines net front and grinding guys.

by icehammer97 on Dec 22, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

And actually, I talk about this a bit in the most recent ep of Lunchbox, which just dropped on the front page. Watch it, y’all!

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

Subtle.

"You can want to get to April but when you get to April you may not like the answers you get, so you might as well enjoy the ride while it's going on." - Brian McNally on JRR, 8/29/2011

by bagace on Dec 22, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

That actually was something I was thinking about too since my first idea of Ward being in the box was shot down. It could be that since Knuble is being used less 5 on 5 that he is becoming sort of a PK specialist on this team.

by icehammer97 on Dec 22, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

Fifth among forwards with half the TOI of the top guys doesn’t scream “PK specialist” to me.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Only one of the guys ahead of him is a winger so he goes from 4th line minutes to 2nd in his position on the PK. He also has the lowest ratio of ES TOI/G to PK TOI/G of any of the wingers at about a 7:1 ratio while Ward is next at about an 11:1 ratio of ES minutes per PK minute. So a much higher percentage of Knuble’s ice time is on the PK that is what says PK specialist to me.

by icehammer97 on Dec 22, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

When I think special teams specialist, I think Marc-Andre Bergeron on a team with an otherwise remotely competent blueline. Last year for TB, for example, he average 3:25 of PP TOI (far and away leading their D) and 10:50 ES TOI. But your points are well-taken.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

Are we sure it’s not that he’s been needed on the PK, comes back winded on the bench for an extended period, and subsequently he sees less 5-v-5 ice time?

Not saying this is so, in fact I’d doubt it, but stats often tend not to tell the whole story on their own.

No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande

by Icebat on Dec 22, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

We’re talking about an awful lot of kills here AND both of his usual linemates are ahead of him here, so I’m not really putting much in that theory.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 22, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t know why I didn’t think of it earlier but the last two years I’ve lamented the team not resting old man Knuble heading into the playoffs, even when he was the scoring machine.

He was critical to scoring the goals that gave the Caps the lead in the Montreal series. (ObstructionGate just being the obvious example). Montreal took their anger out on his back all series and by game 5 there wasn’t much left of Knuble in the crease.

So whatever the reason I guess I should be happy that if this keeps up technically it’s what I asked for. Although the understanding was of course that he would probably help the team work themselves into a position slightly stronger than ‘contender for 8th place’ prior to getting some breathing time.

No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande

by Icebat on Dec 22, 2011 11:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

callback

No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande

by Icebat on Dec 23, 2011 5:14 AM EST up reply actions

I agree that a little rest throughout the season would do him good, but I’d personally rather it be a couple of weeks of no games than reduced minutes throughout the season (while still getting tough, body-bruising PK minutes). Thought the injury he had a couple of years back turned out to be a blessing in disguise.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 23, 2011 8:49 AM EST up reply actions