FanPost

Examination of Goalie Statistics

 

Given the news that Pekka Rinne has signed a long term contract for over $7 Million and given the fact that the Washington Capitals had just faced him, I decided to examine goalie statistics.  I gathered the statistics for goalie performance for this year and the immediate 3 seasons past, for all the regular goaltenders and the frequently played backups from NHL.com.  This included the Goals Against Percentage and the Save Percentage.  I calculated the Mean and Standard Deviation for both of those figures.  Figuring that Save Percentage was a more accurate evaluation of a goalie’s effectiveness, I examined those figures further.  I calculated the difference between each goalie’s Save Percentage and the Mean Save Percentage.  After that, I divided that difference by the Standard Deviation to determine how many standard deviations the goalie’s Save Percentage differed from the Average. 

 

For purposes of this analysis, I’ll consider any goalie whose Save Percentage is more than one Standard Deviation above the Average to be elite and any goalie whose Save Percentage between ½-1 Standard Deviations above the Average to be Above Average and any goalie whose performance is within ½ Standard Deviation of the Average to be average.  Granted these may not be the criteria that statisticians will use but will be the criteria I am using.


 

In 2008-2009, the goalies in the “elite” category were Tim Thomas (who exceeded 2 standard deviations), Tomas Vokoun, Craig Anderson, Niklas Backstrom, and Roberto Luongo.  Approaching elite status were Nikolai Khabibulin and Jonas Hiller who were .9 Standard Deviations away.  In 2009-2010, the elite goalies were Tuukka Rask, Ryan Miller, Tomas Vokoun, Jimmy Howard, Jaroslav Halk, and Evgeni Nabokov, Henrik Lundqvist, with Ilya Bryzgalov and Mikka Kiprusoff coming close. In 2010-2011, the elite goalies were Tim Thomas, Pekka Rinne, Cory Schneider, and Roberto Luongo, with Jonas Hiller and Semyon Varlamov coming close and Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, and Cam Ward at .9 Standard Deviations about average.  While it’s a small sample size, since it’s early in the season, the goalies with elite level statistics so far are Josh Harding, Brian Elliott, Nikolai Khabibulin, Pekka Rinne, Niklas Backstrom, Mike Smith, Jonathan Quick, and Henrik Lundqvist.

 

In tallying the statistics, Tim Thomas, who won Vezina trophies both last season and in 2008-2009, had two elite seasons during the examined time frame.  This year, he’s above average but not elite.  In 2009-2010, when he had lost his job to Tuukka Rask, he was within ½ Standard Deviation of Average, although on the high side of that.  Tomas Vokoun qualified as elite during both 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 and last year was better than average but shy of elite.  This year, Vokoun is within the average range but at the top level of that.  Roberto Luongo was elite both in 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 but only slightly above the mean in 2009-2010.  This year (a small sample size, admittedly), he is below average.  Pekka Rinne, meanwhile, is elite this year and was elite last year but was only slightly above the mean in 2009-2010 and was well above average but not quite elite in 2008-2009.   Lundqvist is elite this year and was elite in 2009-2010, close to elite in 2010-2011, and well above average in 2008-2009.  Ryan Miller, the Vezina winner of 2009-2010 was certainly elite that year but in 2008-2009 was above average and only in the average range since his elite season.

 

While Pekka Rinne has certainly been consistently elite this year and last, is it realistic to expect that trend to continue?  Based on the fact that none of the goalies in my sample have achieved the elite status every year, I would conclude “no”.  The most consistent at remaining either elite or above average have been Lundqvist and Vokoun although we could wonder if Vokoun is slipping.

 

Below are the statistics gathered on a season by season basis for each goalie.  At the bottom for each year are the Average, the Standard Deviation, the Variation, and the Median.  I included those numbers for both the Save Percentage and the Goals Against Average even though my analysis is based on the Save Percentage.

 

 

2011-2012 Statistics

 

 

Player

Team

GP

GS

SA

GA

GAA

Sv

Sv%

Diff

Num Stand Dev

Josh Harding

MIN

6

6

191

10

1.78

181

0.948

-0.034

1.944

Brian Elliott

STL

9

8

227

12

1.43

215

0.947

-0.033

1.887

Nikolai Khabibulin

EDM

12

12

318

20

1.74

298

0.937

-0.023

1.320

Pekka Rinne

NSH

17

17

543

35

2.12

508

0.936

-0.022

1.263

Niklas Backstrom

MIN

14

13

413

27

1.97

386

0.935

-0.021

1.207

Mike Smith

PHX

14

14

472

31

2.17

441

0.934

-0.020

1.150

Jonathan Quick

LAK

16

16

480

32

1.96

448

0.933

-0.019

1.093

Henrik Lundqvist

NYR

13

13

421

28

2.13

393

0.933

-0.019

1.093

Dan Ellis

ANA

6

3

131

9

2.12

122

0.931

-0.017

0.980

Jimmy Howard

DET

14

14

359

26

1.90

333

0.928

-0.014

0.810

Tim Thomas

BOS

12

11

314

23

2.09

291

0.927

-0.013

0.753

Jhonas Enroth

BUF

9

7

242

18

2.19

224

0.926

-0.012

0.697

Al Montoya

NYI

6

5

190

14

2.43

176

0.926

-0.012

0.697

Kari Lehtonen

DAL

14

14

469

35

2.47

434

0.925

-0.011

0.640

Marc-Andre Fleury

PIT

14

14

383

29

2.04

354

0.924

-0.010

0.583

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

COL

6

5

143

11

1.98

132

0.923

-0.009

0.527

Tomas Vokoun

WSH

13

12

346

27

2.36

319

0.922

-0.008

0.470

Miikka Kiprusoff

CGY

14

14

407

32

2.37

375

0.921

-0.007

0.413

Jose Theodore

FLA

13

13

398

32

2.49

366

0.920

-0.006

0.356

Thomas Greiss

SJS

6

5

161

13

2.15

148

0.919

-0.005

0.300

Tuukka Rask

BOS

6

6

172

14

2.32

158

0.919

-0.005

0.300

Johan Hedberg

NJD

11

10

315

27

2.45

288

0.914

0.000

0.016

Carey Price

MTL

16

16

427

37

2.29

390

0.913

0.001

0.040

James Reimer

TOR

6

6

159

14

2.58

145

0.912

0.002

0.097

Antti Niemi

SJS

11

11

299

27

2.67

272

0.910

0.004

0.210

Evgeni Nabokov

NYI

8

8

201

18

2.83

183

0.910

0.004

0.210

Corey Crawford

CHI

15

15

441

40

2.61

401

0.909

0.005

0.267

Mathieu Garon

TBL

10

8

243

22

2.80

221

0.909

0.005

0.267

Ryan Miller

BUF

11

11

308

28

2.86

280

0.909

0.005

0.267

Ilya Bryzgalov

PHI

14

13

379

36

2.65

343

0.905

0.009

0.494

Jonas Hiller

ANA

16

16

463

44

2.94

419

0.905

0.009

0.494

Cory Schneider

VAN

8

6

198

19

2.76

179

0.904

0.010

0.550

Cam Ward

CAR

16

16

509

49

3.27

460

0.904

0.010

0.550

Devan Dubnyk

EDM

7

6

195

19

2.84

176

0.903

0.011

0.607

Dwayne Roloson

TBL

12

10

328

32

3.07

296

0.902

0.012

0.664

Ondrej Pavelec

WPG

17

17

491

49

3.12

442

0.900

0.014

0.777

Ben Scrivens

TOR

7

6

178

18

2.95

160

0.899

0.015

0.834

Roberto Luongo

VAN

13

13

346

36

2.97

310

0.896

0.018

1.004

Craig Anderson

OTT

18

17

514

54

3.25

460

0.895

0.019

1.061

Semyon Varlamov

COL

14

14

410

45

3.30

365

0.890

0.024

1.344

Jaroslav Halak

STL

10

10

225

25

2.60

200

0.889

0.025

1.401

Michal Neuvirth

WSH

6

5

168

19

3.29

149

0.887

0.027

1.514

Martin Brodeur

NJD

7

7

165

19

3.02

146

0.885

0.029

1.628

Jonas Gustavsson

TOR

9

7

237

29

3.78

208

0.878

0.036

2.024

Steve Mason

CBJ

16

16

432

54

3.63

378

0.875

0.039

2.194

 

 

 

GAA

 

Sv%

Average

2.55

 

0.914

Standard Deviation

0.52

 

0.018

Variance

0.28

 

0.00031

Median

2.49

 

0.913

 

 

2010-2011 Statistics

 

 

 

Player

Team

GP

GS

SA

GA

GAA

Sv

Sv%

Diff

Num Stand Dev

Tim Thomas

BOS

57

55

1811

112

2.00

1699

0.938

-0.026

2.186

Pekka Rinne

NSH

64

64

1905

134

2.12

1771

0.930

-0.018

1.501

Cory Schneider

VAN

25

22

714

51

2.23

663

0.929

-0.017

1.415

Roberto Luongo

VAN

60

60

1753

126

2.11

1627

0.928

-0.016

1.330

Jonas Hiller

ANA

49

46

1493

114

2.56

1379

0.924

-0.012

0.987

Semyon Varlamov

WSH

27

25

759

58

2.23

701

0.924

-0.012

0.987

Carey Price

MTL

72

70

2147

165

2.35

1982

0.923

-0.011

0.901

Henrik Lundqvist

NYR

68

67

1965

152

2.28

1813

0.923

-0.011

0.901

Cam Ward

CAR

74

74

2375

184

2.56

2191

0.923

-0.011

0.901

Tomas Vokoun

FLA

57

57

1753

137

2.55

1616

0.922

-0.010

0.816

Ilya Bryzgalov

PHX

68

67

2125

168

2.48

1957

0.921

-0.009

0.730

James Reimer

TOR

37

35

1134

90

2.60

1044

0.921

-0.009

0.730

Antti Niemi

SJS

60

60

1741

140

2.38

1601

0.920

-0.008

0.644

Tuukka Rask

BOS

29

27

866

71

2.67

795

0.918

-0.006

0.473

Marc-Andre Fleury

PIT

65

62

1742

143

2.32

1599

0.918

-0.006

0.473

Jonathan Quick

LAK

61

60

1631

134

2.24

1497

0.918

-0.006

0.473

Corey Crawford

CHI

57

55

1545

128

2.30

1417

0.917

-0.005

0.387

Ryan Miller

BUF

66

65

1964

165

2.59

1799

0.916

-0.004

0.302

Jose Theodore

MIN

32

29

963

81

2.71

882

0.916

-0.004

0.302

Niklas Backstrom

MIN

51

50

1566

132

2.66

1434

0.916

-0.004

0.302

Brian Boucher

PHI

34

29

902

76

2.42

826

0.916

-0.004

0.302

Devan Dubnyk

EDM

35

33

1103

93

2.71

1010

0.916

-0.004

0.302

Sergei Bobrovsky

PHI

54

52

1527

130

2.59

1397

0.915

-0.003

0.216

Kari Lehtonen

DAL

69

68

2043

175

2.55

1868

0.914

-0.002

0.130

Michal Neuvirth

WSH

48

45

1283

110

2.45

1173

0.914

-0.002

0.130

Ondrej Pavelec

ATL

58

54

1705

147

2.73

1558

0.914

-0.002

0.130

Dwayne Roloson

NYI, TBL

54

54

1596

138

2.59

1458

0.914

-0.002

0.130

Craig Anderson

OTT, COL

51

49

1546

135

2.83

1411

0.913

-0.001

0.045

Jonathan Bernier

LAK

25

22

652

57

2.48

595

0.913

-0.001

0.045

Johan Hedberg

NJD

34

27

777

68

2.38

709

0.912

0.000

0.041

Scott Clemmensen

FLA

31

25

833

74

2.62

759

0.911

0.001

0.127

Jaroslav Halak

STL

57

57

1518

136

2.48

1382

0.910

0.002

0.212

Jimmy Howard

DET

63

63

1830

168

2.79

1662

0.908

0.004

0.384

Miikka Kiprusoff

CGY

71

71

1935

182

2.63

1753

0.906

0.006

0.555

Martin Brodeur

NJD

56

54

1313

127

2.45

1186

0.903

0.009

0.812

Mathieu Garon

CBJ

36

29

887

88

2.72

799

0.901

0.011

0.983

Steve Mason

CBJ

54

53

1541

153

3.03

1388

0.901

0.011

0.983

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

TOR

33

26

777

78

2.87

699

0.900

0.012

1.069

Dan Ellis

TBL, ANA

44

37

1089

111

2.77

978

0.898

0.014

1.240

Marty Turco

CHI

29

27

799

82

3.02

717

0.897

0.015

1.326

Curtis McElhinney

OTT, ANA

28

22

721

74

3.18

647

0.897

0.015

1.326

Peter Budaj

COL

45

39

1234

130

3.20

1104

0.895

0.017

1.497

Brian Elliott

OTT, COL

55

51

1551

166

3.34

1385

0.893

0.019

1.669

Chris Mason

ATL

33

28

882

95

3.39

787

0.892

0.020

1.754

Nikolai Khabibulin

EDM

47

46

1389

153

3.40

1236

0.890

0.022

1.926

Rick DiPietro

NYI

26

26

773

88

3.44

685

0.886

0.026

2.268

Ty Conklin

STL

25

20

582

69

3.22

513

0.881

0.031

2.697

 

 

GAA

 

Sv%

AVG

2.63

 

0.912

SD

0.35

 

0.012

VAR

0.12

 

0.00014

MED

2.59

 

0.915

 

 

2009-2010 Statistics

 

Player

Team

GP

GS

SA

GA

GAA

Sv

Sv%

Diff

Num Stand Dev

Tuukka Rask

BOS

45

39

1221

84

1.97

1137

0.931

-0.021

2.038

Ryan Miller

BUF

69

68

2098

150

2.22

1948

0.929

-0.019

1.842

Tomas Vokoun

FLA

63

62

2081

157

2.55

1924

0.925

-0.015

1.452

Jimmy Howard

DET

63

61

1849

141

2.26

1708

0.924

-0.014

1.354

Jaroslav Halak

MTL

45

43

1386

105

2.40

1281

0.924

-0.014

1.354

Evgeni Nabokov

SJS

71

71

2168

170

2.43

1998

0.922

-0.012

1.159

Henrik Lundqvist

NYR

73

72

2109

167

2.38

1942

0.921

-0.011

1.061

Ty Conklin

STL

26

21

764

60

2.48

704

0.921

-0.011

1.061

Ilya Bryzgalov

PHX

69

69

1961

156

2.29

1805

0.920

-0.010

0.964

Miikka Kiprusoff

CGY

73

72

2035

163

2.31

1872

0.920

-0.010

0.964

Jonas Hiller

ANA

59

58

1860

152

2.73

1708

0.918

-0.008

0.768

Craig Anderson

COL

71

71

2233

186

2.64

2047

0.917

-0.007

0.671

Martin Brodeur

NJD

77

76

2004

168

2.24

1836

0.916

-0.006

0.573

Cam Ward

CAR

47

45

1409

119

2.69

1290

0.916

-0.006

0.573

Tim Thomas

BOS

43

43

1221

104

2.56

1117

0.915

-0.005

0.476

Johan Hedberg

ATL

47

42

1355

115

2.62

1240

0.915

-0.005

0.476

Chris Mason

STL

61

61

1699

148

2.53

1551

0.913

-0.003

0.280

Roberto Luongo

VAN

68

67

1915

167

2.57

1748

0.913

-0.003

0.280

Marty Turco

DAL

53

52

1605

140

2.72

1465

0.913

-0.003

0.280

Antti Niemi

CHI

39

35

936

82

2.25

854

0.912

-0.002

0.183

Carey Price

MTL

41

39

1244

109

2.77

1135

0.912

-0.002

0.183

Pekka Rinne

NSH

58

54

1541

137

2.53

1404

0.911

-0.001

0.085

Jose Theodore

WSH

47

43

1352

121

2.81

1231

0.911

-0.001

0.085

Semyon Varlamov

WSH

26

23

718

65

2.55

653

0.909

0.001

0.110

Brian Elliott

OTT

55

48

1424

130

2.57

1294

0.909

0.001

0.110

Dan Ellis

NSH

31

28

848

77

2.69

771

0.909

0.001

0.110

Antero Niittymaki

TBL

49

46

1388

127

2.87

1261

0.909

0.001

0.110

Jonathan Quick

LAK

72

72

1927

180

2.54

1747

0.907

0.003

0.305

Manny Legace

CAR

28

24

745

69

2.81

676

0.907

0.003

0.305

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

TOR, ANA

35

32

1031

96

2.85

935

0.907

0.003

0.305

Dwayne Roloson

NYI

50

49

1555

145

3.00

1410

0.907

0.003

0.305

Ondrej Pavelec

ATL

42

40

1353

127

3.29

1226

0.906

0.004

0.403

Ray Emery

PHI

29

29

783

74

2.64

709

0.905

0.005

0.501

Marc-Andre Fleury

PIT

67

66

1772

168

2.65

1604

0.905

0.005

0.501

Michael Leighton

PHI, CAR

34

31

899

85

2.83

814

0.905

0.005

0.501

Josh Harding

MIN

25

22

692

66

3.05

626

0.905

0.005

0.501

Niklas Backstrom

MIN

60

58

1632

158

2.72

1474

0.903

0.007

0.696

Mathieu Garon

CBJ

35

27

858

83

2.81

775

0.903

0.007

0.696

Jonas Gustavsson

TOR

42

39

1146

112

2.87

1034

0.902

0.008

0.793

Steve Mason

CBJ

58

55

1653

163

3.06

1490

0.901

0.009

0.891

Jeff Deslauriers

EDM

48

48

1529

152

3.26

1377

0.901

0.009

0.891

Mike Smith

TBL

42

36

1165

117

3.09

1048

0.900

0.010

0.989

Brian Boucher

PHI

33

26

796

80

2.76

716

0.899

0.011

1.086

Martin Biron

NYI

29

26

859

89

3.27

770

0.896

0.014

1.379

Cristobal Huet

CHI

48

46

1083

114

2.50

969

0.895

0.015

1.477

Pascal Leclaire

OTT

34

31

822

93

3.20

729

0.887

0.023

2.258

Vesa Toskala

TOR, CGY

32

26

773

93

3.48

680

0.880

0.030

2.941

 

 

 

GAA

 

Sv%

AVG

2.69

 

0.910

SD

0.32

 

0.010

VAR

0.10

 

0.00010

MED

2.65

 

0.909

 

 

2008-2009 Statistics

 

Player

Team

GP

GS

SA

GA

GAA

Sv

Sv%

Diff

NSD

Tim Thomas

BOS

54

54

1694

114

2.10

1580

0.933

-0.024

2.235

Tomas Vokoun

FLA

59

55

1855

138

2.49

1717

0.926

-0.017

1.583

Craig Anderson

FLA

31

27

977

74

2.71

903

0.924

-0.015

1.397

Niklas Backstrom

MIN

71

71

2059

159

2.33

1900

0.923

-0.014

1.304

Roberto Luongo

VAN

54

54

1542

124

2.34

1418

0.920

-0.011

1.024

Nikolai Khabibulin

CHI

42

40

1192

96

2.33

1096

0.919

-0.010

0.931

Jonas Hiller

ANA

46

38

1217

99

2.39

1118

0.919

-0.010

0.931

Ryan Miller

BUF

59

58

1773

145

2.53

1628

0.918

-0.009

0.838

Pekka Rinne

NSH

52

49

1435

119

2.38

1316

0.917

-0.008

0.745

Scott Clemmensen

NJD

40

39

1138

94

2.39

1044

0.917

-0.008

0.745

Steve Mason

CBJ

61

61

1658

140

2.29

1518

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Chris Mason

STL

57

51

1544

129

2.41

1415

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Martin Brodeur

NJD

31

30

870

73

2.41

797

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Henrik Lundqvist

NYR

70

70

2007

168

2.43

1839

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Cam Ward

CAR

68

68

1901

160

2.44

1741

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Mike Smith

TBL

41

40

1282

108

2.62

1174

0.916

-0.007

0.652

Martin Biron

PHI

55

53

1718

146

2.76

1572

0.915

-0.006

0.559

Dwayne Roloson

EDM

63

62

1953

166

2.77

1787

0.915

-0.006

0.559

Jaroslav Halak

MTL

34

33

1077

92

2.86

985

0.915

-0.006

0.559

Jonathan Quick

LAK

44

41

1200

103

2.48

1097

0.914

-0.005

0.466

Marc-Andre Fleury

PIT

62

61

1850

162

2.67

1688

0.912

-0.003

0.279

Antero Niittymaki

PHI

32

29

947

83

2.76

864

0.912

-0.003

0.279

Alex Auld

OTT

43

38

1141

101

2.47

1040

0.911

-0.002

0.186

Kari Lehtonen

ATL

46

45

1498

134

3.06

1364

0.911

-0.002

0.186

Evgeni Nabokov

SJS

62

62

1663

150

2.44

1513

0.910

-0.001

0.093

Manny Fernandez

BOS

28

27

791

71

2.59

720

0.910

-0.001

0.093

Yann Danis

NYI

31

29

933

84

2.86

849

0.910

-0.001

0.093

Ty Conklin

DET

40

37

1033

94

2.51

939

0.909

0.000

0.000

Cristobal Huet

CHI

41

40

1087

99

2.53

988

0.909

0.000

0.000

Ilya Bryzgalov

PHX

65

63

1994

187

2.98

1807

0.906

0.003

0.279

Carey Price

MTL

52

49

1513

143

2.83

1370

0.905

0.004

0.372

Miikka Kiprusoff

CGY

76

76

2155

209

2.84

1946

0.903

0.006

0.559

Brian Elliott

OTT

31

30

786

77

2.77

709

0.902

0.007

0.652

Martin Gerber

OTT, TOR

26

26

799

78

3.03

721

0.902

0.007

0.652

Jason LaBarbera

VAN, LAK

28

24

674

67

2.78

607

0.901

0.008

0.745

Joey MacDonald

NYI

49

46

1584

157

3.37

1427

0.901

0.008

0.745

Erik Ersberg

LAK

28

25

651

65

2.64

586

0.900

0.009

0.838

Jose Theodore

WSH

57

55

1572

157

2.87

1415

0.900

0.009

0.838

Dan Ellis

NSH

35

33

963

96

2.93

867

0.900

0.009

0.838

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

ANA

46

44

1274

127

3.10

1147

0.900

0.009

0.838

Peter Budaj

COL

56

55

1531

154

2.86

1377

0.899

0.010

0.931

Marty Turco

DAL

74

74

1993

203

2.81

1790

0.898

0.011

1.024

Andrew Raycroft

COL

31

27

836

90

3.14

746

0.892

0.017

1.583

Vesa Toskala

TOR

53

53

1518

166

3.26

1352

0.891

0.018

1.676

Chris Osgood

DET

46

44

1208

137

3.09

1071

0.887

0.022

2.048

Johan Hedberg

ATL

33

26

875

100

3.49

775

0.886

0.023

2.142

Manny Legace

STL

29

28

669

77

3.18

592

0.885

0.024

2.235

 

 

 

 

GAA

 

Sv%

AVG

2.71

 

0.909

SD

0.31

 

0.011

VAR

0.10

 

0.00012

MED

2.71

 

0.911

 



 

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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