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Haha, Slapshot pimping the Redrockers… That’s funny

What doesnt kill you makes you stronger.

by BetterOffWith28 on Nov 15, 2011 7:46 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Guess the pivots! (I was right... what do I win?) [RtR]

Are you interested in a Rock the Red T-shirt?

How about a Rock the Red October?

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 8:01 AM EST reply actions  

Nice. Does it come in my size, extra awesome?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:03 AM EST up reply actions  

They only come in ‘L’, ‘XL’, and ‘Wrapped around a Hop Rod Rye’.

by Kewibr on Nov 15, 2011 8:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

If I get a picture of you wearing that T-shirt, I’ll ship it right now.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 8:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Heh. I think I do enough free publicity for you guys as it is…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions  

The Caps Rock the Red October more than enough. I’d rather them Rock the Red June.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

But the movie pun was too much to pass up.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Ovechkin is on pace to play 1547.066667 minutes this season over 82 games, which would be a career low.

Do you take the over or under?

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.

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by NGreenberg on Nov 15, 2011 8:05 AM EST reply actions  

Under. Basically, I think it’s more likely that he gets hurt and misses time than that he sees a spike in ice time this season.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:10 AM EST up reply actions  

so that’s a shade under 19 minutes a game, right?

I think it will depend on the the standings. I would like to think that his minutes are being restricted now to try and save him for an increased load if needed the last 1/4 of the season and the playoffs.

If the Caps are comfortably locked into a top 4 position position then I take the under. If they are in a tight battle and need the points I think he climbs and I’ll take the over. how’s that for hedging?

by Beakers Lab on Nov 15, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Terrific Ward profile.

That'll make your weagle wink!
The pants that bind us should be left behind us.
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by boutros23 on Nov 15, 2011 8:12 AM EST reply actions  

Yes, nice story.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Nov 15, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Good photo too. He is one of my two favorite additions to the team.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Feels like he’s been here forever, doesn’t it? Him and Wideman.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Comfy fits for the team.

I didn’t know too much about Ward’s hardships. Much respect to him for his perseverance.

That'll make your weagle wink!
The pants that bind us should be left behind us.
Tweet me. If you dare. @nicraymond

by boutros23 on Nov 15, 2011 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s a nice article, though I think it’s dangerous to assume that he’s a Proven Playoff Rockstar because he scored four goals against the Canucks.

by Kolzilla on Nov 15, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s a good start.

What doesnt kill you makes you stronger.

by BetterOffWith28 on Nov 15, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Like an old pair of shoes perfectly molded to the feet.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I have a man-crush on Ward… One of the hardest-working guys out there and he plays the same style of game I always tried to. Except, you know… He’s really good at it/

by Murshawursha on Nov 15, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

From the Brett Hull comparison
Ovechkin would likely also benefit from having another Viktor Kozlov-style playmaker on his wing for a season or two as opposed to a Mike Knuble-type crease-crasher.

It would be nice to see Kozlov back there, wouldn’t it? Someone with enough talent to handle first line duty, but not with too much talent to waste on one line so you can spread it out.

That kinda’ only really leaves Ward to be on the top line then eh? That is, if Ovechkin is going to start being the guy to dunk. Semin’s got too much talent. It’s nice to be able to throw him on the 2nd line. Brouwer and Knuble are net crashers themselves, not really setup guys. Ward seems like he’s smart and humble enough to know his primary job is to get the puck to Ovechkin in front of the net, but with enough skill to bury it if he knows he has the best chance.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 8:52 AM EST reply actions  

what else I like about ward.

Regular season: 256 games, 106 points

Playoffs: 18 games, 17 points

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 8:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Proven playoff performer! Proven!!!

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

So if Byfuglien.

Although we’ll never know for real. Because he will be barter amongst the crap teams forever and never make it to the playoffs again. :)

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

It would be nice to see Kozlov back there, wouldn’t it?

No. No it sure wouldn’t.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions   3 recs

Ward on the top line helped move the puck out of the defensive zone and into the attack pretty quickly. Knuble can help with that much more than Kozlov ever could.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

...

I came into the rink here probably after Kozlov was gone so my feeble little hockey mind of the masses didn’t know enough of his flaws.

He always seemed to come through in a shootout and somehow always seemed to just magically make that puck appear on Ovechkin’s stick for a tip in. That’s all I noticed.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Sooooooofffft. Way soft.

Tomas Fleischmann with a bigger frame and perhaps softer hands.

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by fat_daddyo on Nov 15, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Yea. But then again before I wrote that first line about Kozlov, I had just pictures Semin on the top line and I had chills; the bad kind.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I voted for Flash for the all star ballot. Heh. I had to pick another forward other than ovi and backstrom. ;)

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Have you seen Fleischmann’s numbers this year? 15 points in 16 games.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe we can trade for him and put him on that top line with 8 and 19! He’s got skill to be a second playmaker there but not too much skill that you’d want him on a second line!

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

If we get Flash back, this new accountability thing is going to go straight out the window.

by Murshawursha on Nov 15, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, he’s top line in FL right?

I remember when he got traded I was almost glad. For his sake. He’s talented and could be a near point per game kinda guy. He just needed to be on the right team where he could get more minutes.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Also a much better possession player (though not saying much since Flash is terrible in that regard).

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I believe in next year.

by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, yes, his shootout prowess certainly was helpful (4-for-12 in two years). Especially in the playoffs.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Look here, snarky McSnarksnark!

Shootout goals against the penguins count as REAL goals!

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

regular season? according to Pittsburgh those don’t even count as games!

I’m just in it for the Schadenfreude. -D'ohboy

by Alz in the family on Nov 15, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, at least the ones we win :)

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Heck if it’s Kozlov’s hands you want, just put MP85 up there, who is probably a more physical player (which is not to say he’s effective at it), or at least more energetic, than Kozlov.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Nov 15, 2011 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe we can get some steroids for him. Is that couple from Florida stil se… er.. no? Ok. Hmmm.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Kozlov? Blech. I mean that’s gross.

And I have some issues with Kozzy as a “playmaker”. I also don’t see that AO needs another playmaker on his line.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Nov 15, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Kozlov is old, anyway. Not a big body-checker or anything. I don’t care about the shootout when I’m talking about even-strength production, either. This also isn’t a Knuble/Kozlov debate, I like Knuble a lot more, but he’s not on the top line any more. The combo got stale.

No, what Kozlov brought was skill and the experience of having played with Pavel Bure. The guy would top out at 20 goals, but he could pass very well, plus he could use his big body to control the puck down low in the offensive zone. He’s that guy, as Brainumbc put it, that has enough skill to be an asset on the top line but not so valuable he shouldn’t be on the second line, a la Semin.

Pure numbers, Kozlov put up 54 points in 81 games in his first season in DC, the 41 points in 67 games the next. Knuble put up 53 points in 69 games in his first season in DC, then 40 in 79 the next. Chris Clark (remember him, the Knuble before Knuble), had 37 points in his first season with OV, then 54 the next.

I think we’re seeing a pattern. Also, when OV has a crease crasher on the line (Clark, Knuble), he tends to get more assists than goals, and when he had Kozlov as playmaker, he had more goals than assists, and not coincidentally, his two highest goal and point totals in his career. The point totals have something to do with the offensive system and other factors (like OV only playing 72 games in 09-10), but the goals are no coincidence.

The biggest factor here is changing the look on Ovi’s line. Ovi needs to get the memo that he’s a shooter, and he needs someone else to get him the puck. Brouwer ain’t it. I like Brouwer there, he’s the next Clark/Knuble, but we don’t need that right now. We need the next Kozlov.

Pure state

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

and when he had Kozlov as playmaker, he had more goals than assists

Not that people don’t try to take out Knuble, but they know he’s more dangerous when he gets in front of the net rather than when he’s coming in at the point.

It just seemed like Kozlov was a magnet for defenders when he came in which gave Ovi more room.

Although since then people have figured out that it takes two people to guard Ovechkin so a second time around they’d probably let Kozlov walk in a little more. Then he’d end up like the dog chasing the car that finally catches it and thinks: WTF now what? I’m not that talented. what do I do?

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Don’t know how “pure state” ended up in there.
The other prime consideration about a player like Knuble, Kozlov, or Clark, they are complementary players, either great two-way play and just above average skill (ie, Clark) or lots of skills and limited 2-way play (Kozlov), or somewhere between, but the key factor is “affordable,” and affordable players have limitations.
I also wouldn’t be opposed to Brooks Laich playing up on that line for an extended period, even if it deprives other lines of his outstanding play. He’s got the 2-way play and the skill (but not quite the same affordability)
I had to also say, I miss making fun of Viktor from the stands.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions  

The combo got stale.

this may (probably) sounds dumb but it would be nice to see someone like MP be able to handle that first line right wing. He’s someone creative enough that doesn’t do the same thing all the time.

If only he weighed 20lb more and was a right wing :P

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t mind seeing that, either, but he’s too small.
It helps to have someone big there to control the puck down low and fight through defenders. That’s a key factor. Clark’s a small guy and got put through the grinder after a couple seasons. It basically ended his career.
Chimera worked well for a couple games. He’s got decent passing skills, but stone hands for receiving them, but he had the speed to push people back, get the puck in, and the size and strength to work down low. The problem is, once he passed the puck, off, he was pretty much out of the play in terms of handling the puck, whereas a player with better hands (Knuble, Kozlov) can keep it going. He was a quick fix, but not a long-term solution.

The guy I’ll get yelled at for suggesting there is Ales Kotalik. He’s in Europe now and made too much money last season, but he’s a big guy with good hands and a history of production. He’s a veteran who won’t get starry eyes playing with Ovie, and he’s not so skilled he should be on another line. Believe me when I say I’m not suggesting he’s a good fit for the team overall, just that he could be a good fit on a line with Ovie and Backis.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sure what Chimera has, other than speed, that tops Knuble’s skills here. “Decent passing skills”? Hmm.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

a more aerodynamic head?

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t say Chimera’s an upgrade. Read it, it just says he brings certain things Knuble doesn’t.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Right. Speed. And…?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Mostly speed. Chimera is also a bigger hitter than Knuble.
By extension, the ability to be a better forechecker, to push defenders back to open up more space for Ovechkin and Backstrom, and to get on the backcheck faster.
Knuble is a better overall player than Chimera on that line, (the passing skills are about even, but Knuble has slightly better vision).

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

The Caps forecheck?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Semin effectively forechecked on the PP against the Devils.

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Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Nov 15, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I hear Alex Kovalev is available…

by Murshawursha on Nov 15, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I’d want him on the Caps just as much as I’d want Kotalik.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

You mean a washed-up, less productive Alex Semin?

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Right. Attitude issues and a penchant for taking shifts off.

He’d fit right in.

by Murshawursha on Nov 15, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

You’d rather a washed-up less productive Kovalev?

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I lay out the ideal player on that line farther down. I want Kotalik’s size, experience, and skill set in a defensively responsible player. For $2.5 mil.

“You can wish in one hand and crap in the other, and see which one gets filled up first.” -Burgess Meredith, Grumpy Old Men

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Snark aside, it’s a good point about Ovi benefiting from another playmaking presence on his opposite flank.

The only current option would seem to be… 28.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I say 8-90-28, 21-19-20, 25-15-42, 26-85-50, feed that top line soft minutes, never play the fourth, and see what happens in the short-term.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions   3 recs

That would test Backstrom’s driving abilities, for sure. I think he’s good enough (and if he gets tossed in the d-zone you can give Laich the draw). That fourth line would get approximately 6 minutes a game, though, so your “under” on Ovechkin’s minutes above would get blown to bits.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 15, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

That’s fine.

And I tried to give 19 the best remaining goal-scoring F’s I could.

I also totally forgot about Knuble. Get him in there!

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

You could do 8-90-28, 20-19-22, 25-21-42, 26-15-85, 50 to HER.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 15, 2011 10:01 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

This.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think 21-19-20 would have any trouble moving the puck in the right direction and keeping the play in their offensive zone. 8-90-28 might, since none of those guys is one who can break up the other team’s cycle in their own end.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually like the idea of playing Johansson with Ovechkin, he’s faster than Backstrom with comparable technical passing skills, meaning he can back defenders off. He also tends to think more literally than Backstrom, which is also how Ovie thinks (shoot or pass to a guy with a shot).

I have often thought Backstrom is actually a better fit with Alex Semin. They are both chess players and can control the puck well, they’ll gut need a literal-minded player on the other wing (Laich’s a good fit there).

Chimera isn’t an overall upgrade on the top line over Knuble, he’s just a different look that keeps the combo from getting too stale. Teams learn very quickly how to defend players and lines, and speed always throws a wrench in there. As for Chimera’s passing ability, he’s no playmaker at this level, but he actually makes decent passes most of the time. He was also a big playmaker at the AHL level, it’s not like he’s a schlub. He brings some good things to that line, but not enough to keep him there long.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I actually like the idea of playing Johansson with Ovechkin,

Eventually we’ll see a “mean marcus” emerge

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

How much would that top line be wasted because MJ90 can’t win a draw?

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Not much at all.

Backstrom has taken 236 draws in 15 games, or nearly 16 per game (that includes special teams face offs). He’s won 48.3% of those draws, or roughly 7.6 draws per game.

Johansson has taken 159 draws, or just over 10 per game. He’s won 44%, or roughly 4.6 per game.

If you gave Johansson an additional 6 draws per game, he’d likely win 2 or 3 of them, bringing him up to right about where Backstrom is.

In other words, the difference b/t 19’s and 90’s FO% ain’t much and isn’t likely to impact much at all.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

So if I read between the lines a bit here, what you are saying is that MJ90 and NB19 hurt the team equally with their poor faceoffs.

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m saying that it’s very easy to overstate the actual impact of their sub-50% faceoff percentages.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Whoa, I thought Baxter was better than that and Johansson worse. Good for Marcus being passable in faceoffs, but come on Nicklas, you gotta be at least 50%.

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by Bman21212 on Nov 15, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m more concerned with MJ90’s passing/playmaking ability on an Ovechkin/Semin line. He’s got skills (as evidenced by the pretty saucer passes we’ve seen on breakaways), but his low assist numbers makes me wonder how he’d use two elite scorers as his Wingers.

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by bagace on Nov 15, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

His assist numbers have been brought down by lack of finishing by his linemates though. Last season, Fehr and Chimera kept missing chances where Mackan set them up perfectly, and his linemates this season haven’t done too well either.

My mind is all twisted like a peanut.

by timmyv38 on Nov 15, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Mackan was brutal for most of last year. Yes, Chimera and Fehr had down years, but much of their possession decline was due to playing most of the year with newborn baby foal Mackan who, despite sheltered minutes, got absolutely destroyed.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

All true, but Mackan (even last year) definitely seems like the guy on the team who would have more assists if guys were finishing the golden chances he creates. Not saying it doesn’t happen to guys like Backstrom (or funny enough, Ovie too)…but Mackan’s numbers seem to take the biggest hit from it.

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by Davethecapsfan on Nov 15, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

despite sheltered minutes

Funny how Mojo got easy zonestarts but the top competition rating on the team.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

If Ovechkin really needs another playmaker on his line, then he’s most definitely not worth his contract.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, he’s scored seven times in 15 games – a 38-goal pace – without it. The current scenario has pretty much been “Ovechkin + elite center + decent wing.” What if “Ovechkin + decent center + elite wing” and pushing that elite center to the second line to elevate decent wings better maximizes the team’s output?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

8-28 is a scary combination (for BOTH teams)

But it’s sure fun to watch when they click.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

But he’s playing a bigger defensive role this year! It says so on ESPN!

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

This is snark center today

snark snark eggs and snark!

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough, but much of the discussion about Alex Semin’s value this off-season focused on how much he “drives the play,” and one would likewise assume that an effective Ovechkin is capable of doing the same. To paraphrase the argument, Semin was seen as a valuable piece because of his positive impact on possession and scoring when he’s on the ice – Semin could play with anyone (within reason) and his line would come out as a net positive. The same, presumably, ought to hold true for Ovechkin. And yet, now we’re discussing putting the Alexes together, or who gets to play with Backstrom, or just how bad this team’s breakout looks without Green in the lineup.

Essentially, my point boils down to this: Ovechkin and Semin are paid $9+m and ~$7m per year on the basis that they “drive the play;” that is, their presence on the ice shifts possession in the Caps’ favor, which should lead to scoring chances, which should in turn lead to goals and penalties drawn and all sorts of positive outcomes. If we’re now positing that Ovechkin needs an elite playmaker on his line (whether it’s a wing or a center), and that Semin needs an elite center on his line (or he needs to play alongside Ovechkin), then the aforementioned argument about “driving the play” begins to unravel. At that point, they begin to sound much more like passengers, who rely on players like Green and Backstrom to create opportunities for them by retrieving the puck and setting them up in scoring areas.

Like Nylander, I’m circling back to something I’ve frequently mentioned – the player best suited to really “driving the play,” is Backstrom, or any other center for that matter. They’re the ones battling below the dots in the defensive zone. They’re the linchpin in the breakout. They’re responsible for carrying the puck through neutral ice. They’re capable of garnering possession from faceoffs. Puck-moving defensemen like Green are likewise valuable because they’re responsible for gaining possession (by removing the puck from the opposition) and by starting the breakout.

Clearly, this is a bit of a reductio ad absurdum, since wings can contribute defensively and assist on the breakout. Nevertheless, much of the justification for the hefty contracts of Ovechkin and Semin is that, despite some of their deficiencies in other parts of the game, they can drive possession and produce while skating with pretty much anyone. It seems to me that we’re now finding that to be increasingly not the case, which, for me, calls into question the value of their contracts.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions   4 recs

If we’re now positing that Ovechkin needs an elite playmaker on his line (whether it’s a wing or a center), and that Semin needs an elite center on his line (or he needs to play alongside Ovechkin), then the aforementioned argument about "driving the play" begins to unravel.

I’m not sure that’s true if we accept the possibility that Backstrom might be a better driver than the weaker of the two Alexes and that the goal is to separate your top-two drivers.

But I agree with the general point and have long said that if your $6.7m winger needs a $4.5m center (Laich) to be productive, he’s not worth that much. I suppose we could extend that logic to your $9m winger and $6.7m center.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Back to the point, Ovechkin is perfectly capable of carrying the play and being a 50 assist winger. He’s a more than capable playmaker, as evidenced by him averaging over 50 assists per season. He can carry the puck into the zone and look to set up his linemates, with speed, control the play down low, and bang bodies. But that’s not what he’s best at. He’s best at being a goal scorer. If we had wanted Alex Tanguay, we’d have signed him, and for less money.
This is all about putting Ovi in the best position to succeed and play to his strengths, which means having someone else carry the puck for him to allow him to get into position to be at his most dangerous. Ovechkin isn’t carrying the puck into the zone these days to make a pass, he’s trying to cut across the middle for a shot and failing miserably each time. He knows he’s a better shooter than passer.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

He’s carrying the puck into the zone and stopping to wait for a passing opportunity fairly often, actually. Not as often as he tries to cut across the middle, but he does do it. It would still be better if Backstrom carried the puck in – he’s a better puckhandler and passer.

My mind is all twisted like a peanut.

by timmyv38 on Nov 15, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Good call. The problem then becomes who’s driving the net looking for a pass? Backstrom is dangerous as a shooter, Brouwer not so much. In order for Ovie to even be a playmaking winger, he’s gotta have someone to set up.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Totally agree. That line should have Backstrom as the playmaker, Ovie as the shooter, and Brouwer/Knuble/someone as the netcrasher. Add in a dman who can shoot, and that can be a dangerous line if they play right.

My mind is all twisted like a peanut.

by timmyv38 on Nov 15, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

But Ovechkin isn’t carrying the puck into the zone because he doesn’t have anyone else on his line to do it. He already has Baxter to do that. He is carrying the puck into the zone because of an inability/refusal to change his game.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Funny You should mention that. I wrote a story about that yesterday.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

And F&B wrote a FanPost on it a millenium ago.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

F&B says Ovechkin can score 1 on 3. I’m saying he can’t do that any more. The he needs to change his game to be productive because he isn’t scoring the 1-on-3 goals (0 through 15 games this season).

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, that’s a two-year old post that was essentially noting that while AO could still be productive doing those things, he could be more productive by getting away from it. It was, in retrospect, prescient in that the effectiveness was rapidly diminishing an, without adjusting, so was Ovechkin’s production.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. Fehr and Balanced has good stuff. Not to mention an awesome Captain Murphy icon.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Right, so then why focus on getting a new wing? Personally I think the correlation between AOs points and Kozlov as his RW is completely spurious. AOs rise and subsequent fall in scoring had far more to do with a number of other factors outside of his RW, IMO.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

The focus in this discussion board is on getting a new wing, the focus in the story is about Ovechkin getting a head-check and playing like Brett Hull.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I already said that, too. The correlation between Ov’s goals and Kozlov is no accident, but I think he was as productive with Knuble in terms of total points as he was with Kozlov.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d disagree. I think the correlation in goals is an accident.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Can’t really argue with that. That’s why I want to see Backstrom do it – but he’s got a tendency to pass to Ovie in the neutral zone.

My mind is all twisted like a peanut.

by timmyv38 on Nov 15, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

And onto the Rick Nash argument again. He was a 1st overall draft pick, led the NHL in goals as a sophomore, and is a $7 mil winger. He’s only producing around 33 goals a year with no talent surrounding him, so the Blue Jackets did the obvious, they got a highly paid center to play with him. Surround talent with talent, it’s called synergy, or playing greater than the sum of your parts. Ovie, Backis and Knuble played $17 million hockey for a whole season in 2009-10, no question. Knuble isn’t and was never expected to be a long term fix at 37, and he’s certainly not now at 39.

Is Nash not worth his $7 million because he can’t carry the entire talent-starved team on his back and score 50 goals a year by himself with no help?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Is that a response to me? I think Nash is a great player.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Not you, JP, D’oh boy. I think you agreed with me.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Surround talent with talent, it’s called synergy, or playing greater than the sum of your parts.

No, it’s called “the folly of building a team around a great winger.” Look, I think Rick Nash is a great hockey player, but like every other winger, he’s a complementary piece. He shouldn’t be the centerpiece, but he is in Columbus. This is the constant issue with wings – you get a good one and he scores some goals, so you pay him beaucoup $$$.

Then his production declines for any number of reasons (age, defensive adjustments, changed assignments, bad luck, overall decline in scoring), so the team goes out and tries to “fix” the problem by getting him a playmaker. Are you creating synergy, or are you just throwing good money after bad trying to fix a problem inherent to building teams around wingers? Look at Calgary for example – the argument has always been that Iginla has “never had a decent center.” Forget that, if Iginla really is as good as his salary is – and I think he has been overall – he shouldn’t need a great center to produce. By and large, that’s actually been the case. You can put him out there with any number of guys and he still manages to get around 35 goals.

My point above was that the synergy JP is suggesting – playing Backstrom with guys who need to be carried while playing Ovechkin with Semin to maximize their production – is sort of flying in the face of the entire rationale for why you’d pay a winger $7m+. If I’m a GM and I’m paying a winger $7m+, that guy had damn well better be able to score 35+ goals regardless of who his center is. If, at the point that I need a $5m center to carry my $7m winger, I’d much rather get a $7m center and surround him with $2m wingers, because at the end of the day, it’s the center who’s really driving the play.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

the synergy JP is suggesting – playing Backstrom with guys who need to be carried while playing Ovechkin with Semin to maximize their production – is sort of flying in the face of the entire rationale for why you’d pay a winger $7m+

I don’t necessarily disagree here, though I think you’d be fine paying one winger that (swap out Semin for a $6.7m center and we’re fine).

My point is more about maximizing what you’ve currently got on the roster. If “possession-driving” was somehow quantifiable and AO has 8 units, Semin has 7 units, Backstrom has 10 and MoJo has 4, perhaps 8-90-28 with a second line driven by Backstrom maximizes what you’ve got.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree from a roster-maximization standpoint. But the fact that such an alignment needs to be considered is, to me, an indictment against the argument that the Alexes can drive the play on their own. It’s essentially an admission that they can’t, or at least not as well as we might have hoped.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, I don’t necessarily see it that way. Semin’s had plenty of productive stretches (both in terms or box cars and possession stats) playing with mediocre talent. He just gives an inconsistent effort and, unsurprisingly, sees inconsistent results.

It’s hard to say how much of a possession driver 8 is because he’s almost always with 19 – last year both fell off a bit without the other.

Why is trying to maximize output a tacit admission that neither player is productive on his own?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Because what you’re saying is that player X needs player Y to be maximally effective. At the point that I’m a GM and I’m paying a wing $7m, I expect him to be pretty damned effective, regardless of who he’s playing with. Otherwise I’d rather spend that money on a center.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see “maximally effective” as the same as “effective” – I think either can be “pretty damned effective, regardless of who he’s playing with.”

If Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan are “maximally effective” together and thus play on a line together, does it mean that either is ineffective on his own? Or Kariya/Selanne? Or Bertuzzi/Naslund?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I’d like to see Laich between the Alexes, not MoJo. Give me the guy who plays good defense, wins draws, and had just enough offense to be draw people off.

Is it time for a paradigm shift in DC?

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Really? My god, that line would be a disaster.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Because when your center goes down below the goal-line to help out the defenders, do you expect both Ovechkin and Semin to be responsible enough out there or are they both hovering waiting for an outlet pass?

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

  1. This is why I prefer Laich to Johansson on the line.
    #2, let’s see how it works in a game, but you do have a point that it might end up being ideal.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

So it would be better to have a less defensively responsible center on that line? That logic makes no sense to me.

Plus, if both defenders are already below the goal line I sure hope the center isn’t joining them.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, our checking center is less defensively responsible than Johansson?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

No, RCheli was saying that Laich between the Alexes was bad because the Alexes wouldn’t help out when Laich went down low, so it seemed to me that he was suggesting that Mojo (or some other C less responsible than Laich) was a better fit. I disagreed with that.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I’m saying that you don’t want to have both Alexes toghether, not having Laich play with either.

And I’m not saying all three are below the goal line.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

AO-Backstrom-Semin sure seems to work just fine at times. When it doesn’t work it’s usually because they go into Care Bear Mode and get too cute offensively, not because they are liabilities defensively.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It works well at times, as a change of pace. Just like Chimera works well for his own reasons.

Semin doesn’t have the overall characteristics to be a consistently good winger on that line.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

The whole Ov-Laich-Semin line may be a disaster waiting to happen.

It might be worth a shot. It may never see the light of day. It could be great.

I like Laich better than MoJo between them.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t like an AO-Laich-Semin line because I don’t think Laich has the offensive chops to play that role well. Not because I think they would be a mess defensively.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t like an AO-Laich-Semin line because I don’t think Laich has the offensive chops to play that role well.

If our $7 million and $9 million wingers need an offensively competent center…

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think they need one necessarily, but is that really the best use of the team’s personnel sticking guys in roles for which they are not suited?

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that trio a few shifts a game would be great. A regular line with those three I’m not so sure about.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, they were a regular line for much of the 2009-10 season and did just fine. But the problems are not defense-related.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe early, but after about a dozen games, Knuble replaced Semin on that line.

I randomly went to a box score from that season to see if that was true (not that a random game would tell me much), and I picked the game against the Bruins on February 2, 2010. In that one, Semin had three minor penalties, two hooking and one high-sticking.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Caps are 10-4-1 with the best point % in the league. Do you seriously think it’s time for a “paradigm shift”?

by mechanicsville on Nov 15, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

And they could very easily be at .500 with how they played the first couple of games.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"

by Steve-R on Nov 15, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

They also lost a game here and there (I think 2 or 3) they deserved to win.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sensing a pattern...

The Caps won the President Trophy, do you seriously think they should change anything after a fluke playoff loss to Montreal?

The Caps hit a slump, changed their system and still finished with the top seed in the East. Do you really think they should fire BB just because they got swept by Tampa Bay?

The Caps have the best point percentage in the league, who cares if the effort has been inconsistent?

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

the pattern of winning?

"One of the most difficult things everyone has to learn is that for your entire life you must keep fighting and adjusting if you hope to survive." -George Allen

by caps&skins on Nov 15, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

In the regular season…

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 16, 2011 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t, as long as they keep winning…which they haven’t.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

This whole thing is summed up for me by the Eric/Erik situation.

Eric Staal is a pretty steady 30+ goal, 45 assist player, with or without Erik Cole.

Erik Cole, on the other hand, is a 20+ goal, 25+ assist player with Eric Staal, and a 10-15 goal/15-20 assist player without him. Cole goes from being 09-10 Knuble with Staal, to being 10-11 Chimera without him.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

You’re talking about the Eric Staal with 8 points in 15 games and a -17 rating this season?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll take his six-year track record over the sample of 15 games any day.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, suggesting that Staal isn’t an elite center is silly.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmmm…..

Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.

by Davethecapsfan on Nov 15, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, 8 points in 18 games and a -17 rating.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

This season is a huge outlier for him, though. He’s consistently a 70-80 point/season guy who is having a crappy year.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

There are mitigating circumstances. Last February, Eric hit his brother Marc, resulting in a concussion. Since that game, Eric is 10-16-26, minus-13 in 38 games. Marc was in and out of the lineup following that, but the symptoms seem to have deepened, and his is out indefinitely. Eric’s performance seems to have deteriorated in the same manner as his brother’s health.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Nov 15, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

From a numbers perspective, I get the feeling Staal is being played against other teams’ top lines a lot, too, and not doing so hot. He’s got no Brind’Amour to take the tough minutes and faceoffs any more. Who’s the checking center in Carolina?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Erik Cole is a mediocre (and dirty) player – not sure what his relevance is here where we’re discussing elite wingers.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Erik Cole is a good example of the overvaluation of wings and their general dependence on centers. While he’s certainly not elite, his production drop off without Staal is glaringly significant.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Not so fast. Look at 2008-09, when Cole signed in Edmonton. the first 65 games of Staal’s season, he had 28 goals and 50 points, and an even rating. bring Cole back into the mix for the final 17 games, he had 12 goals, 25 points, and a +15 rating.

Not a coincidence.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

And Cole looked like the inside of a porta-john without Staal.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Except against the Caps.

Otherwise, I think the point gets made here.

I am in total agreement, build from centers first, then worry about the rest.

I disagree that you should force talented wingers to play in a talent vacuum or that they shouldn’t be paid for their production.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, plenty of wings have been made by their centers.

Of course, Dainius Zubrus’s contract says that sometimes it works the other way as well.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely. Zubrus was way overpaid by NJ. He worked as well as anyone on the Caps roster would have, but he was obviously not going to be a long term solution.

And the other nonsense about all of this, Semin pretty much has been a 35-goal winger his entire career. I don’t know what all the fuss is about.

38 in 06-07
26 in 65 games in 07-08
34 in 62 games 08-09
40 in 09-10
28 in 65 games last season

He has the 12th most goals in the NHL since coming back from Russia. Of anyone, not just wingers.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know what all the fuss is about.

I’ll give you a hint: rhymes with “layoffs.”

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Semin has been productive in the playoffs.

2008 – 3 goals, 8 points in 7 games
2009 – 5 goals, 14 points in 14 games
2011 – 4 goals, 6 points in 9 games

2010 was obviously bad for everyone on the Caps. Semin had 44 shots on goal in 7 games and 2 assists playing with a mediocre center. Yeah, he had no goals, but not for lack of trying.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

One could reasonably argue that Semin in fact did have no goals for a lack of trying if one were to watch his consistent fly-bys of the Montreal cage.

And we’ve been over his playoff production ad nauseum – good series, good series, bad series, bad series, good series, bad series. That inconsistency (which you’re about to tell me is injury-driven) – and not his overall production – is why people have a problem with his playoff performances.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I disagree altogether with the notion that he had a bad series against Pittsburgh.

I think his low production against Montreal had more to do with Boudreau’s brain cramps regarding Fleischmann, Morrison, and Belanger than anything else. And, as they say, the enemy has a vote. Montreal was extremely adept at penalty killing (did it to Boston, too), where Semin would have gotten some of his production, and that has as much to do with the coaching staff’s unwillingness to adapt their attack. Boudreau got outcoached.

I also think the Tampa series was bad for just about everyone. No arguments he had a bad final 3 games.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, much of the pro-Semin argument this summer was based on the concept that he drives 5v5 possession.

I’d be very curious to see how many of his goals are at ES (versus PP), and of those, how many occur when he’s playing with either Ovechkin or Backstrom.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

http://rockthered.net/2010-articles/june/why-alexander-semin-needs-a-center.html

Lots of Semin goals assisted by, Semin assisting other people’s goals, before last season, in this story.

So we’re clear, I say nothing about Semin driving 5-on-5 possession.

I will say Semin’s powerplay production has gone down quite a bit since 2006-07.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s not shameless. I’ve posted it and then people keep saying “I’d like to see these numbers.” I’ve already done that, the numbers are there. They’re not looking.

I can just re-write the story in this space if you’d like instead of re-linking it.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

How about answering the question with the relevant data rather than directing folks to a post where they have to dig through and find it on their own?

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Your story doesn’t have the ES vs PP breakdown, so I can’t tell how much of Semin’s Ovie and Backstrom-assisted performance is PP-driven.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes it does have the ES/PP breakdown, and breakdowns by primary and secondary assists. The links are to the pictures of the excel tables in the story.

2009-10
Semin assisted on 10 of Ovie’s 50 goals, 7 at even strength (5 primary) and 3 on the powerplay (1 primary).

Semin assisted on 9 of Backstrom’s 33 goals, 5 at even strength (2 primary) and 4 on the powerplay (3 primary).

Of Semin’s 40 goals, these players assisted the most: (table)
Laich, his regular winger, had the most at 13, Backstrom was second with 8, 4 at even strength.

Then there’s Semin’s assists

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

The table for Semin’s assists are for people not named Ovechkin or Backstrom. More tables in the story lay out his 2008-09 production in the same way, which shows what a big influence Sergei Fedorov was.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

So here’s Semin’s five-v-five Corsi over the past four seasons (prior to this one):

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=610&withagainst=true&season=2007-11&sit=5v5&type=corsi

Semin’s a ~55% Corsi-For no matter who you take away from him.

The goal drop-off without 8 and 19 is larger, but still impressive:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=610&withagainst=true&season=2007-11&sit=5v5&type=goals

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Firewalled, will have to look later.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Back to the point.

Playmakers make plays. Ovechkin and Semin will shoot the puck a ton, sure, regardless of who plays with them. Playmakers increase the quality of scoring chances. Distance from the goal isn’t the only consideration in the quality of a scoring chance, nor is Corsi the only indicator of quality of play. If you get a good pass, you can get a shot off on a goaltender while he’s moving and before the defenders can block the shot, and score from the blueline (like Ovi vs the Islanders). Without those passes, you can still shoot, but if it gets blocked, Corsi still measures as a shot attempt. Ovie had more missed shots and shots blocked in the Montreal series than he had shots on goal!

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Playmakers make plays, but shooters do too.

I never made any claims as to quality of scoring chances or Corsi as an all-encompassing statistical panacea.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s not for your benefit. I get the feeling some people have selective memory when it comes to certain players. I also get the feeling some people think stats are an excuse for not seeing the players play the game. I enjoy a good debate and like having the stats to back it up, but stats don’t tell the whole story.

Semin has a penchant for being listless at times, but he’s also an extremely scary player when he’s on. I’d rather have Semin than not have him. I’d much rather have Semin playing with an effective center (Fedorov, Arnott, Backstrom, etc). I’d most rather have the #2 line be built around a second elite center and not around Semin. I’ll take what I can get.

Semin is a good hockey player with anyone, and he can make some plays by himself. Semin has the ability to be a truly great hockey player if he’s got the appropriate pieces surrounding him, which won’t always happen in DC when he’s on the second line. He also has injury issues because #1 he takes so much abuse and #2 he’s mortal.

I also realize no matter how great a player is, he won’t score every game. A 35-goal scorer will score in at most 35 games, meaning there’s 47 games he won’t score in. Semin’s had 12 of that so far.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Semin has had an above average shooting percentage throughout his career, IIRC in the neighborhood of 14%. His on-ice shooting% is staggering.

Don’t think shot quality is an issue for Semin except in small samples.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

You’d rather get a $7m center than a $7m winger, but is that realistic for a GM? It’s really hard to get a center on the free market, or in a fair value trade. You almost always over pay, massively. Look at what Flash got. Look at Richards.

I agree than a $7m center is usually better than a $7m winger, but there simply aren’t enough $7m centers in the league for that to work. Not everyone can draft Crosby and Malkin.

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by Bman21212 on Nov 15, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

And that has been the problem. The Capitals are urgently trying to develop Marcus Johansson into a legitimate #2 center and can’t get Evgeny Kuznetsov over here fast enough.

If I could, I’d take the center, but for now we’ve got Semin. There are times it works out better than others, but I’d rather have Semin than no legitimate second scoring threat at all.

By the way, Tomas Fleischmann has taken 6 faceoffs in Florida so far. He’s not a center.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

But this isn’t anything new. The Caps have chosen to — for the most part — spend their money on wings instead of centers, and this continued this offseason with the re-signing of Laich and Ward.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

But Laich has played far more center than wing this year.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure, but he’s a B+ wing and a B- (at best) center. If you’re going to spend that money, you should put the player in the best situation for him to succeed, right?

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

As a shutdown center, he’s doing as much good as he ever did as a wing. The team is better with him at 3C than if he was 2W.

My mind is all twisted like a peanut.

by timmyv38 on Nov 15, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s not that simple. He might be a B- second-line center (and a C- first-line center), but an A- third-line center. Roles matter. I think they’ve put him in a great position to succeed this year, and I think he’s succeeded.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

What’s his grade at defense?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Incomplete.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Better than Sloan.

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by Bman21212 on Nov 15, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess. This was the same problem that most people had with the signing this past summer. It is clear that Laich is a good player, but for where he’ll likely get his ice-time, it’s an overpayment. He’s a very good third-line center, but is paid like a first-line wing.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Just because you put kittens in the oven doesn’t make ‘em biscuits. The Caps may have slightly overpaid to keep Laich, but his versatility is valuable and if he can be an effective 3C, so be it – they shouldn’t force him into a role he can’t be productive in because of what other guys around the League get paid.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   3 recs

I love that… kittens and biscuits. I’m going to steal that.

They more than slightly overpaid for him, though. I guess I would’ve liked to see them go out and find a legitimate center for Semin — someone who can either drive the play or who can protect him from his own mistakes.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Semin has played with Backstrom, Nylander, Fedorov, Morrison, Fleischmann, Laich, Johansson… if you can see a pattern to his production (i.e. the better the center, the better his production), you’ll be the first to see it. Semin does what he does regardless of his pivot.

The team could use a better 2C for plenty of reasons, but I don’t think Alex Semin’s production is one of them, because I don’t think the impact there would be appreciable.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Actually, Semin does better with a better Center.

Why Alexander Semin Needs a Center

And it’s nice to know I’m the first one to see it.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

From that, it seems that Perreault is the best center for Semin (when you look at both shots and +/-).

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

They’ve had some success together, yes.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Are we taking the playoffs into account, because, you know, he didn’t have an elite center (mostly Flash) and failed miserably. He did really well in 2008 (Fedorov/Backstrom), 2009 (Fedorov), and pretty well in 2011 when he had Arnott and not well when he didn’t.

The I have to ask if we take the regular season into account, because I lay out my points in very clear detail.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

He did well in one round in 2009. He stunk up the joint in the 2nd round. Same deal in 2011.

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

You ever played hockey with one hand? Semin had nearly a point per game against the Penguins with one hand. (6 assists in 7 games), and one of those assists would have been a goal if it hadn’t nicked Laich’s knee on the way in, check the tape.

In 2011, look at the line combos, Semin scored with Arnott as his center, but when Arnott was moved down a line, the production dried up.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

And Arnott last year was miles and miles away from an “elite” center.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d also say that Fedorov in 2008 and 2009 was far from an elite center, although he was better than Arnott.

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. Insofar as I can tell, Semin’s only played with one elite center in his career. Everyone else has been varying degrees of adequate.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Both players were far from being elite any more, but were both good at controlling the puck in traffic, passing to Semin, and also good in their own zone. It’s amazing how hard that is to find. Semin did fine playing with Morrison, too, also past his prime.

Semin doesn’t necessarily need an elite center, just a solid one, to be productive. I will posit that the Caps need a center at or near elite to be serious contenders for the Stanley Cup.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, let’s not go there. There were many degrees of inadequate, too.

-Kris Beech (though he had good point totals)
-Jakub Klepis
-Tomas Flesichmann

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

No doubt. Didn’t mean to imply everyone’s been good, just that no one’s been excellent other than NB19.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Not to suggest that having productive centers isn’t important, but I wonder how much of an impact having an elite playmaker on the blueline is? Maybe Semin doesn’t have any discernable “synergy” with any particular centers, but how is his production with and without Mike Green? Or Ovechkin’s for that matter.

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

At ES, the blueliners don’t matter all that much, I don’t think – D’s are much more reliant on F’s for production than vice versa.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You could very well be right, and I’d suggest you are definitely right in the context of NHL defensemen as a whole, but I do wonder if this still holds true when you only consider the top offensive defensemen like Lidstrom, Green, Boyle, etc.

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

http://rockthered.net/2010-articles/june/why-alexander-semin-needs-a-center.html

You can see some examples of this in my story. JP has a point, but obviously the better passers your defenders are, the more goals you get (ask Teemu Selanne how many goals he’d have had as a rookie without Phil Housley). Except for a few elite defenders, the difference is likely to be minimal.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Since we’re talking even-strength in 2011-12, yeah, the difference among being on the ice with Green, Carlson or Wideman for a guy like Semin is likely to be minimal.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I will posit that the Caps need a center at or near elite to be serious contenders for the Stanley Cup.

This is likely true, but has more to do with defensive matchups and overall contributions than with increasing Alex Semin’s production.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I think we’re getting closer to consensus here.

Semin plays better with better centers, best with a great one, but that difference may not be huge.

The Caps need another elite center to win a championship. By extension, if that center played with Semin, he might reach his scoring potential and earn his dough.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

And my argument is, if you need an elite center to make Semin “earn” his $6.7m, then he’s not really worth $6.7m.

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by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

No argument that Semin hasn’t earned his dough this season.

No argument that teams shouldn’t be built around centers. I’ve known that for years, it’s no secret, but somehow the Caps can’t or won’t get one.

You mentioned something earlier about Iginla, and it goes right back to my point about Nash. Sure, Iginla, Nash, and even Ovechkin will get you 35 goals a year regardless of who you play them with. With Iginla and Nash, that really has been disregarded. My argument is if you have a playmaker passing to a shooter, the shooter scores more goals. Just like a point guard in baskteball, or a quarterback throwing to Randy Moss, you don’t get the same production without the accompanying talent. You actually get more out of two talented players (Backstrom probably gets more goals playing with Ovie than without).

With Nash, what’s wrong with trading for Carter? Your solution is to surround Rick Nash with a bunch of $500K shlubs because 35 goals from him is enough? Trading for Carter means they’re finally starting to build the team down the middle.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

No. My point is that if Rick Nash is getting paid $$$$ and yet you still have to trade for Carter in order to get him going, then he probably wasn’t worth $$$$ to begin with.

In isolation, the Carter trade makes perfect sense. As part of a larger strategy, it simply reflects the inherent flaw in building that team around Nash.

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by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Then what do you pay for a 35 goal winger who could produce more if he had a center? Are you saying Iginla is worth the money but Nash isn’t?

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes. Iginla’s a much better player than Nash.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah… What would Nash have to be scoring on his own to be worth his contract? 35/year with a crappy center isn’t earning his paycheck?

I don’t see a problem with bringing in an elite center to elevate his numbers. Very, very few wingers are going to score much higher than 35 without a decent center anyway.

by Murshawursha on Nov 15, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually think Iginla and Nash are about as comparable as any two players you’ll get.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really interested in another debate about Semin in the playoffs, but I don’t really care if he was able to get some assists. He wasn’t driving the play and creating chances the way he should, and he needs to be scoring goals. He was also a -6 with 8 PIM in that series. Lots of players play hurt in the playoffs. If Semin’s game turns to hot garbage when he’s hurt (which is often) how can we rely on him in the playoffs?

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Back to the question:
Have you ever played hurt?

-Backstrom disappeared in 2010 when his shoulder was separated. He disappeared in 2011 when his hand was toast. You saying he’s not worth the money if he had just only 6 assists in 7 games against the Pens?
-Mike Green was sick and had two bum shoulders in 2009 (and was a little overweight) and didn’t play so hot. He’s out the door, too if he had 6 assists in 7 games against the Pens?

Nobody plays the same when they are hurt. Nobody. If Alex Semin is too injury prone, maybe he’s not part of the solution in DC. I

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

If Alex Semin is too injury prone, maybe he’s not part of the solution in DC.

You’ll get no disagreement from me there.

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d have no problem trading Semin for a point-per-game center.

I’m also a little sensitive to people talking about how people should play when they are hurt. Having played college lacrosse, I can tell you you’re not the same player when you’ve got a bad back.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

At the same time, my experience has been that some players are capable of playing through injuries while others are not. Semin clearly falls into the latter category.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think it’s that. More like he can’t play through, specifically, a hand injury.

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I have played hurt, but I’m also not getting paid $6.7 million dollars. Plenty of NHL players do perform despite injuries. Happens every playoffs. Maybe it’s not Semin’s fault that he’s fragile, but those excuses just feed the notion that he’s not worth keeping around.

Backstrom was like the rest of the team in 2010: great in the first 4 games, sucked on toast the last three. He wasn’t good in 2011 after a generally down season, but he gets more of the benefit of the doubt than Semin seeing as he has shown much more consistency throughout his career.

Green’s injury/weight issues certainly worry me.

And my evaluation of these players goes beyond their point totals. For one, there are different roles. Semin is expected to score more goals than both Backstrom and Green. Second, I mentioned other things about Semin’s game that were lacking besides just goals.

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

The injury also dictates how well you play while hurt, both severity and location.

Brett Hull playing on a bad leg in 1999 wasn’t so bad since he was more of a shooter than a skating threat.

Semin playing with a bad wrist is monstrous because of what he does with his wrists that makes his living.

Backstrom with a bum shoulder is huge because of the physical nature of the game, faceoffs, and arm-strength. It’s hard to shoot with one arm.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

K_C is molded from steel, I dare you to try to hurt him. He’s 100% rompin’ stompin’ female satisfaction.

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Nov 15, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

When I’m in goal I only wear a chest protector to keep the pucks from breaking when they hit my chest.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I bet you don’t wear a cup or carry a goalie stick. You just use your schlong to bat pucks away.

Unleash the Apathy.

by D'ohboy on Nov 15, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes it pretty much impossible to score through my 5-hole.

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Knuble > Viktor Kozlov

Couldn’t help but notice this in the middle of the post…

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by Killer_Carlson on Nov 15, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep, Knuble is a better overall player than Kozlov. Kozzie’s main asset was his playmaking, meaning Ovie had higher goal totals. Knuble on the line I think gave Ovie a higher points per game for one season, and the team had the best record ever.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Back to the point, though, Knuble didn’t work forever. I think the Caps top line would benefit from having another playmaker (a la Kozlov) to stir the pot and make defenses adjust again, and give Ovechkin and Backstrom more room for a while. I think after a season or two, we go back with a Brouwer type.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see how you can say they “more than slightly overpaid for him” when Leino, Cole, and Flash all got 4.5 as well. On the list of “Laich, Leino, Cole, Flash” I take Laich first every single time. The UFA market is what it is.

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Nov 15, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

three of those names just make me laugh.

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by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Ovechkin-Laich-Semin

“I don’t see anything wrong with that…”

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

They more than slightly overpaid for him, though.

What is your limit on “slightly overpaid?” I don’t think it’s more than 22% ($1 million on $4.5 million).

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by red army line on Nov 15, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I could see him at first line wing.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes, if only Ovechkin had an elite playmaker on his line…

Point taken. but I think we’re just in pipe dream territory here. I think we’re looking for another player with skills not to score, be because we want to see more people draw away defenders DAMNIT, I want more highlight reel goals.

There. I said it.

by Brainumbc on Nov 15, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Let’s not get carried away here. I’m just talking about putting Ovechkin in the best position to succeed and maximizing his potential. The coach has to balance the lines to be effective for most, if not all, of a 60 minute game. The GM has to balance the payroll, etc. Ceteris Paribus, I think Ovechkin would benefit from having another playmaker on his line to make his line a truly elite line again, not just a very good one (which is all it was last season). Maybe the team wins more games if Ovechkin’s line is just very good.

Let’s look at it two ways. Would you say Rick Nash is not worth his contract because he doesn’t get 40 goals a season? Does it matter he’s had complete crap on the Jackets roster for most of his career? He really hasn’t had a #1 center to work with, much less a respectable second line. He’s hardly maximizing his output there.

On the other hand, the great lines have three players that work well together. Besides Ovie-Backis-Kozlov/Knuble, let’s take a look at some recent great lines.

Naslund-Morrison-Bertuzzi
A truly great line, Naslund was the primary shooter, but also an excellent passer. Bertuzzin could put the puck in the net, too, but his main assets were his size for controlling the play down low and forechecking and his hands, as he was a better passer than shooter. Morrison was the defensive conscience, but with excellent playmaking skills and just enough scoring touch to take attention off the other two when necessary.

Selanne-Rucchin-Kariya
Obviously a donut line (no center), but Rucchin made it work. Selanne and Kariya were both double threats, neither are overly large or physical, and both could just as easily pass as shoot (and did). Rucchin was the defensive conscience and physical presence and put up some decent numbers of his own, but was nowhere near that type of scoring threat without the other two.

It takes 3 to make it work effectively over a long period, and the third guy is usually not an all-star but a guy who complements the others well and has enough skill to be part of the play.

The Caps have Ovechkin and Backstrom, both elite talents. Ovechkin is a big, bruising forward with good passing ability, but he is most effective when he is not handling the puck and hiding in traffic when defenders key on him entering the zone. Backstrom is a slick playmaker with excellent puck control in the corners and has mastered the Forsberg counter-hit. He is not overly fast, but is adept at handling the puck in traffic and getting the puck to Ovechkin. An ideal complimentary player for these two is a player that is good in the corners so Ovechkin and Backstrom can play in space, which usually means a big guy. He doesn’t have to be a huge hitter (Ovechkin can do that), but needs to be good on the forecheck and has to be a good enough puckhandler to keep Ovechkin from carrying the puck too much when he enters the zone. He doesn’t have to be overly fast (Ovechkin’s speed is enough to push defenders back), but has to be able to keep up with Backstrom. He has to be able to pass and receive passes well, but also be able to hold onto the puck long enough to get the puck to another puck handler. He doesn’t need to be Ovi’s primary set-up guy, but has to have the hands and vision to get a puck through traffic and enough guts and skill to get shots through to keep the respect of the defense. He also needs to be mature enough to know not to pass to Ovie all the time, since he’s most dangerous without the puck, so that usually means a veteran. Backstrom can win faceoffs and play defense, but is best when he can focus more on offense.

Knuble isn’t super fast and is only getting older. He’s got the scoring pedigree and can get to the front of the net to keep Ovie from doing it, but Ovie does fine in front of the cage. Knuble is responsible defensively, he’s physical and good int he corners, and has decent hands. His weaknesses, besides speed, are his lack of a playmaker’s vision and ability to enter the zone with the puck on his stick.

Kozlov wasn’t super fast, but he had the speed to keep up with Backstrom. He was big and good in the corners, but not overly physical otherwise (no big deal, Ovie can hit) . He wasn’t especially good defensively, which was a major flaw. He shot a lot and had enough goals on his resume to get defenders’ attention. He could enter the zone with the puck on his stick, and he had the vision of a playmaker, though not an elite one.

The jury is still out on Brouwer, but he had glowing numbers in the AHL and has all of the physical and two-way elements to be another good winger for that line. He’s young and has good enough speed, but also has a Stanley CUp ring playing with Kane and Toews so won’t get starry eyes. He’s not a super-shooter or puck handler, which is something the Caps could really use on that line, but he’s decent enough there to be reasonably effective.

Semin has all the skills to be on that line, but not the physical presence in the corners or the defensive conscience. He also takes any scoring threat away from the second line, meaning there’s only one line to key on. Semin works there from time to time, but isn’t a permanent fix. He’s best as the primary focus of his own line.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

He also takes any scoring threat away from the second line, meaning there’s only one line to key on.

I think people tend to over-emphasize this point. If opposing coaches are line-matching, they’re going to play their best defensive group against the Ovechkin line, especially if it’s also the Backstrom line. Is Barry Trotz worried about Semin-Johansson-Brouwer (or whomever) tonight? Sure, but not to the point that he’s got a difficult decision about who he’s going to play his best checkers against. Right now, Alexander Semin isn’t taking any focus away from stopping the top line.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

The point cannot be emphasized enough. The Capitals have yet to be very successful in the playoffs because of their lack of a real #2 center, thus an effective second scoring line. The Caps have only had enough to beat the one-line Rangers twice.

Who do you choose to stop: Malkin or Crosby? Richards or Carter? Stamkos or Lecavalier? Gomez or Plekanec? It’s a big question, because we couldn’t stop them.

This is not to say the coach still doesn’t plan his game around stopping Ovechkin, but maybe he can’t put all his eggs in one basket now with a second scoring line to worry about. Maybe the top D pair is up against OV and the top checking line against Semin, or maybe #1 D is out against OV and #2 against Semin instead of both 1 and 2 versus Ov. The Rangers put Staal and Girardi up against Ov’s line in last year’s playoffs, and Semin was able to do enough damage with Arnott to get the Caps over the hump.

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Who do you choose to stop: Malkin or Crosby? Richards or Carter? Stamkos or Lecavalier? Gomez or Plekanec? It’s a big question…

No it isn’t – if you’re wed to line-matching, you put your best defensive line against their best line and your second-best against their second best. You maximize your advantage (or minimize your disadvantage). Without question, the Caps have come up short due to a lack of secondary scoring, but that’s not because opponents had an easy choice to make as to whom they should try to stop – it’s because the second line just never produced, and that Rangers series is a fine example – never did Torts think, “Y’know, Alex Semin is killing me – maybe I should move Staal/Girardi away from AO and have them stop Semin.”

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sure how much teams are matching forward lines anyway.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

That’s kinda my point, he could have put Staal against one, Girardi against the other. Not saying he should have, just that he could have. It means more decisions for the opponent to have to make.

If the Caps had Backstrom-Semin and Arnott-Ovechkin, which one becomes the top line? Boudreau pulled this one off for a few games against Philly in 2008, putting Fedorov ont he top line and Backstrom on the second line with Semin, splitting the offense and creating two scoring lines. Which one was the best scoring line? The Flyers got it wrong for a few games, and Semin Backstrom produced more points while the Flyers were busy checking Ovie.

Additionally, when you have two scoring lines, it often means two lines are scoring. Scoring first and playing with the lead are usually recipes for easier games and scoring more goals while the opposing teams take chances to get back in the game.

The other thing, though, is that Semin still isn’t a real fit on that top line for any length of time. He

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by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

But it was never a question as to whom the Flyers (or Rangers) would put their top checkers out against. It never is. The second line could produce because the opponents checked the top line (Ovechkin’s line… always). If you ever get to the point where Ovechkin’s line is producing because opponents are keying on another line, it’s because Ovechkin has fallen off a cliff. The top line opens things up for the second line, not the other way around.

Line matching against a two-line team isn’t rocket science – you go power-vs-power against one and put your checkers out against the other. I’ve yet to see a coach split his checkers with the intention of playing some against each of two scoring lines.

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by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Boudreau splitting up Calznerson doesn’t count?

by wickedwitch on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

That goes back to my point about defenders. When I refer to checkers, I do mean forwards in this case.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

True, it’s an obvious answer to who gets checked on the Caps, but not so obvious on other teams. Also I won’t argue teams don’t split checkers, I’ll only argue they could. And the Flyers were doing something standard against the Caps in 08 that didn’t work for 3 games, so it’s not an obvious answer all the time.

I will still argue having two scoring lines is better than one because having two lines wins games in the regular season and, most importantly, in the playoffs, and having one line is often a recipe for losing. Generally speaking, if you win games, you score more than the opponent, so having multiple scoring lines is good for scoring more goals.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I will still argue having two scoring lines is better than one

On that we’re in complete agreement.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I have, however, seen teams split their checking D line from their checking F line. So if you look at it as a 5-man checking unit, they’ve severed that. PHI used to do that to deal with Crosby/Malkin. They’d put the D against one line and Richards against the other.

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Nov 15, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Sure, but they also were in a situation where a) the drop-off from top D-pair to 2nd pair wasn’t huge and b) Richards was/is an excellent two-way player. So they likely ended up with power-vs-power forwards paired with their top D and their 2nd D with an offensively dynamic “checking line.” Philly’s had good depth, down the middle and, to an extent, on the blueline, so they’ve been able to do some things most teams can’t. Mercifully, they’ve had shit in net.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Nov 15, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

never did Torts think, "Y’know, Alex Semin is killing me – maybe I should move Staal/Girardi away from AO and have them stop Semin."

And that is something to watch for tonight, since the last time Suter and Weber were both on ice for a goal against was nine games ago.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Nov 15, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Gulp.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Sweet! They are due for a few then!

by cainoo7x on Nov 15, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I fear for the Caps’ health coming out of this game, just to throw it out there.

NSH has been pretty nasty the few times I’ve seen them.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Nov 15, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Obviously, those are the top two defenders on Nashville.

How often do those two play together?

How successful are the other pairings at stopping scoring lines?

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

They’re more or less joined at the hip unless another defender is out and Trotz wants to balance things better.

Francis Bouillon and Kevin Klein are the second pairing, and they’re (haven’t run the numbers, so don’t hold me to this) pretty decent. Jon Blum and Jack Hillen are fantastic at moving the puck, but it’s a bit of an adventure in their own in because Blum seems to be having some sort of sophomore slump.

Lemme quote the late, great Colonel Sanders. He said "I'm too drunk to taste this chicken."

by Chris Burton on Nov 15, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Time/Schedule Reminder

Tonight’s game @ Nashville is 8:00 PM EST
Thursday’s game @ Winnipeg is 8:30 PM EST

"A picture is worth a thousand words. For moving pictures we manage to shorten it to one or two."

by Dimagus on Nov 15, 2011 8:53 AM EST reply actions  

O/U on ’Peg-centered Whyno Tweets between now and then: 14.

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

Keep United in DC. A Fair Deal at RFK, and a Pathway to a Stadium for a team loyal to the city.

by Bald Pollack on Nov 15, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Over, and it’s not close.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he’s trolling for a seat on Ted’s jet instead of flying the puddle jumper local.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Nov 15, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe, but who’s going to get his stroller?

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

Keep United in DC. A Fair Deal at RFK, and a Pathway to a Stadium for a team loyal to the city.

by Bald Pollack on Nov 15, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions   4 recs

The closest player’s number (without going over) to how many tweets Whyno does will score tonight.

On the one hand, you’d like to see Carlson or MoJo score. On the other hand…

"A picture is worth a thousand words. For moving pictures we manage to shorten it to one or two."

by Dimagus on Nov 15, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I actually like the 8/8:30 start time. 7pm is tough with the kids bedtimes, although I do get to DVR the game and FF through commercials which is nice

by Beakers Lab on Nov 15, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait until they are a bit older and you will get the argument in a long, whiney tone: “Why can’t I stay up to watch another period.” Thank goodness for the DVR or I would never get to see the whole game.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

they are 5 and 3 (4 next month). Typically we start bedtime around 7:30 with a bath and then reading and they are pretty good about being in bed quiet by 8. On game nights we watch the first period and then I pause the game and the wife does the bath and then we put them to bed.

by Beakers Lab on Nov 15, 2011 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Thank goodness my kid sleeps like a champ. He’s almost 2 and goes down at 7 like clockwork. Thank goodness for TiVo, too.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

I love the late starts, personally – esp Western road trips. The house is quiet, throw a log on the fire, grab a brew or single malt, and watch some hockey.

by S h a g g y on Nov 15, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I’ve stopped drinking, but when I’d have a beer combined with a late game, I was usually asleep on the couch by the 3rd period. Thank goodness for tivo.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Mine’s older but the routine is same-ish. He’s allowed two periods now when the game starts at 7:00 so I’m expecting some argument from him tonight. He notices the number of periods and has absolutely no interest in the time.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I can’t remember the last time I watched any sports live. DVRs are a godsend for people with kids.

by RCheli on Nov 15, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, hey, new content on the front page.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

Japers Savings Time. Noon comes two hours early.

"A picture is worth a thousand words. For moving pictures we manage to shorten it to one or two."

by Dimagus on Nov 15, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

SCStingrays SC Stingrays

Forward Matt Pope has been called up to the Hershey Bears of the American Hockey League

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 10:33 AM EST reply actions  

http://www.stingrayshockey.com/news/teamnews/index.html?article_id=1927

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Saw that. Injuries or should we infer that Eakin’s sticking around?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes to both?

Don’t remember hearing that anyone else has got hurt in Hershey this week, bu they’re down two of their ’leet wings (Potulny and Greentree), a center (Eakin), and their offense has been not so great with those three gone.

Eakin’s away at least for the duration of this roadie. They want to let him play in the ‘Peg. We’ll see if he sticks when they get back.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm. The Stingrays don’t exactly have a surplus of forwards right now.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting site on graphic design and Hockey

wherein the Caps come in 24th for their jersey design.
link

They have similar problems to that of the Anaheim Ducks, in that it’s a font-based logo (which is not necessarily a problem) that is more horizontal than vertical (which is definitely a problem). That’s enough right there to push the logo down to #29 on this list, but it’s got enough style and simplicity going for it to keep it from the basement. Here’s why…/bq.

by Edanger6 on Nov 15, 2011 1:47 PM EST reply actions  

They have similar problems to that of the Anaheim Ducks, in that it’s a font-based logo (which is not necessarily a problem) that is more horizontal than vertical (which is definitely a problem).

How do you have a font-based logo that isn’t more horizontal than vertical? Even the Rangers’ diagonal font is about even on the axes. Something like this?…

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Nov 15, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure the author was talking specifically about the font, not horizontal/vertical in the traditional sense.

by Yoshietree on Nov 15, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

From the Duck analysis.

and the Caps have similar issues.

“The other problem is that because all the other sports teams in the world’s logos are oriented a certain way, sports television tends to build their graphics and visual scoreboards to accommodate, putting Anaheim at a disadvantage yet again. This is a minor issue, but an issue nonetheless.”

by Edanger6 on Nov 15, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup.

The landscape (almost panoramic) orientation of their logo goes against almost every other sports logo out there. While I’m all for being an individual, the problem is that there’s a reason why team logos are generally square in orientation: it looks great on a hockey jersey.

Illustrated helpfully here.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t buy a lot of his arguments, but I’m biased.

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by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow. How many times have I stared at the Caps logo and never realized things like the fact that the "a"s are different? And the stick and puck are at different angles? I think he’s overly critical, but there are definitely some sloppy things in the logo that would probably be considered mistakes if this was submitted to a graphic art class.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t have any kind of background in graphic design, so maybe it still fails on that score – BUT, and I apologize if all of this is obvious and missing your point, I think there are reasons for the shape of the second “a” and the angle of the stick. The “p” through “a” form the shape of a goal mouth (an italicized, for lack of a better word, goal mouth), and the stick is winding back to shoot the puck into the goal. If the second “a” were exactly the same as the first, the “goal mouth” would be lost a little bit. As for the stick and the puck, I don’t know, maybe the “winding back to shoot” effect would be lost a little if they were at the same angle.

by blanket on Nov 15, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

never noticed the goal mouth before! I always saw that second “a” as helping form the cross bar in the “t.” if the extending arm on the a was shortened, the t would look incomplete. In the guy’s alternate version, I read “capifals” because of the lack of complete crossbar.

I understand the argument that logos should be generally square because that’s how logos are supposed to be, but I adore this Caps logo. It’s different without being outlandish, it’s clean and simple without being boring, it honors the beloved old logo without being handcuffed as “retro.” And I love the inclusion of the three stars—a nod to the three stars of the DC flag as well as the 3 jurisdictions of the DC area.

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by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Completely agree that the alternate version’s “t” sucks (he admits as much). Whether it’s actually a cross bar or not, it should certainly line up with the other letters.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. I’m ok with getting rid of the counter of the a, but the spur is needed. The round a just doesn’t fit, it doesn’t continue the motion in a cohesive manner very well. The t has the crossbar before because it continues the movement from the i, and after it becomes too much like an f. The finial on the ‘c’ I could take or leave, either way seems fine.

And I really dislike his new stick. Yes, the angle is different. Not, that is not bad. Not everything needs to be on a grid, being different adds interest. The puck is too far away from the new stick as well, it looks like the puck was lost, not the puck is in possession.

Lastly, if he wants square, just use a weagle. It’s a badass logo in its own right.

TL;DR version
Caps logo is awesome, the corrections are hogwash.

Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.

by Bman21212 on Nov 15, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

The finial on the C is awful. I’ve always hated it.

Campaign Promises fantasy team: Hamrlik To Fall

by CapitalCentre on Nov 15, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t mind it, because it makes the c unified with the corners of the other letters. All of the other bottom right corners, the p and a specifically which the c seems to be based on have an upper pointing curve continuing. Look at the p vs the c. Nearly the same shape, except cut a little differently. And the finial makes the c seem like an actual letter, without it the c seems like an arrow or a symbol, not a single unit.

Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.

by Bman21212 on Nov 15, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh. We’ll have to agree to disagree. If this guy fixed his “t” and moved the puck a bit closer to the stick, his alternative would be a vast improvement on the current Caps logo in my opinion.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think it was a conscious choice to make a goal mouth with a stick shooting a puck into it. I don’t see the “winding back” at all.

But I could certainly be wrong.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Nov 15, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

JP, R&R, Killer, F&B, D-Boy, Peerless,RedBirdie, Rcheli, Timmy, et. al….
Wow. Thank you guys (assuming you are all guys) for a terrific discussion. A lot of learned opinions today; very enjoyable and much appreciated.
I am glad you guys are bringing the brains….I, of course, am bringing my incomparable good looks.

by Wilderthing on Nov 15, 2011 2:33 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

We all have our talents.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

And I can only get away with this today when all of the management as at an off-site retreat.

Following the Caps at Rock the Red.

by Marshall Pirate on Nov 15, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I was wondering to what we owed the honor…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 15, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks, good sir! I am a gal :) We have a big and vocal community of smart, hockey-knowledgeable and hockey-learning women here at Japers’

can’t say I felt like I brought a whole lot of brains today, just posting a nice picture.

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by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

But it was a killer picture, and much appreciated. May it bring Ward good luck on a night facing his old team.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

man I hope he lights up Nashville tonight.

Pledge Drive 2011-2012: CARSON KOLZIG FOUNDATION! Season Pledge total--$403.25!

by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

and all credit to the photographer who took it and the composing/design department at the Post! I just share their work with as many people as possible.

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by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh I know but you’re right to make that note. I clipped it from the WaPo dead tree version, to reside with Knuble’s and a few other noteworthy clippings. I was inspired by your scrapbooking mentions during their winning streak season.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

you can see that book in all of it’s dorky glory here! (aka, see Birdie change her hair 6 times in one season) I never posted the last several pages, though.

Pledge Drive 2011-2012: CARSON KOLZIG FOUNDATION! Season Pledge total--$403.25!

by RedBirdie on Nov 15, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for putting in words what I was thinking as I hid out from everyone in order to finish reading this discussion. I love Japers’ days like today.

by capsyoungguns on Nov 15, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

SWhyno

#Caps spokesman confirms neither Jay Beagle nor Mike Green skated this morning back at Kettler.

Damn.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Nov 15, 2011 3:40 PM EST reply actions  

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