The Evolution of Bruce Boudreau's Capitals
When Bruce Boudreau took over behind the Caps bench back in late-November, 2007, he inherited a team that had been torn down and rebuilt, a squad that should have been ascending towards big things... but for whatever reason wasn't. Many of the pieces were there, but even after he put them and a couple others together for a near-miraculous run to a Division title that season, it was clear that the puzzle was incomplete.
And so General Manager George McPhee has tried and tried again to find those proverbial missing pieces and whether or not he has in the past (perhaps they've been there the past couple of years), there's once again optimism that he has this summer; the only question remaining is whether or not these pieces will come together and reveal a bright, shiny masterpiece in late spring.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Instead, let's look back at from whence these Caps - Boudreau's Caps - came. What follows is a line-by-line look at the team Boudreau iced for the first game of the season that he coached in the past four campaigns, and what we expect the lineup to look like for the 2011-12 opener (subject to change, of course, as line combinations always are with Gabby). These snapshots provide a glimpse at the evolution of McPhee as a manager, Boudreau as a coach and players as they've developed (or haven't). It's all after the jump...
| 2007 | Alex Ovechkin | Viktor Kozlov | Chris Clark |
| 2008 | Alex Ovechkin | Nicklas Backstrom | Viktor Kozlov |
| 2009 | Alex Ovechkin | Nicklas Backstrom | Alexander Semin |
| 2010 | Alex Ovechkin | Nicklas Backstrom | Mike Knuble |
| 2011 | Alex Ovechkin | Marcus Johansson | Troy Brouwer |
The one constant throughout Boudreau's tenure has, of course, been Alex Ovechkin as the top-line left wing. Almost as constant has been Nick Backstrom's presence on Ovechkin's line. Despite the top line that Boudreau threw out there for his first game, Ovechkin ended up skating more than half of his even strength shifts with Backstrom in 2007-08 and has been above 60% ever since. So even if Ovechkin starts out with Marucs Johansson this season, it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be back with the other Swede before long.
On the right side of the Caps' dynamic duo, we've seen a bit of a revolving door, though Mike Knuble has pretty much held down the spot for the past couple of years, with brief appearances from Alex Semin when the team needed an offensive spark.
| 2007 | Tomas Fleischmann | Michael Nylander | Alexander Semin/Brooks Laich |
| 2008 | Brooks Laich | Sergei Fedorov | Alexander Semin |
| 2009 | Brooks Laich | Brendan Morrison | Mike Knuble |
| 2010 | Brooks Laich | Tomas Flesichmann | Alexander Semin |
| 2011 | Alexander Semin | Nicklas Backstrom | Mike Knuble |
The second line has been Semin's for years - as he's gone, they've gone (and when he's been gone, the team has often followed suit). Brooks Laich has spent plenty of time on The Other Alex's opposite wing, and it's no secret that second-line center has been a problem for a while. One way to solve it? Put your first-line center there. Spreading out the talent makes sense in theory - let's see if it sticks. If it doesn't, the Caps could once again find themselves looking for a second-line pivot come late-winter.
| 2007 | Matt Pettinger | David Steckel | Boyd Gordon |
| 2008 | Tomas Fleischmann | Michael Nylander | Chris Clark |
| 2009 | Quintin Laing | David Steckel | Chris Clark |
| 2010 | Jason Chimera | Marcus Johansson | Eric Fehr |
| 2011 | Jason Chimera | Brooks Laich | Joel Ward |
The third line has been a bit of a jumble (David Steckel is not a third-liner in the NHL), and has oscillated a bit between "shutdown checking line" and "tertiary scoring line" in the past. The current incarnation is a bit more of the former... and easily the best trio Boudreau has assembled for this crucial role.
| 2007 | Donald Brashear | Nicklas Backstrom | Matt Bradley |
| 2008 | Donald Brashear | David Steckel | Matt Bradley |
| 2009 | Boyd Kane | Boyd Gordon | Matt Bradley |
| 2010 | Matt Hendricks | David Steckel | Matt Bradley |
| 2011 | Matt Hendricks | Jeff Halpern | Jay Beagle |
There's another constant: Matt Bradley. The Caps haven't gotten a lot out of their fourth line in recent years - some penalty-killing, some toughness - but this year's trio will be counted upon to provide at least that, if not a bit more. Oh, and it's not bad when a coach can get an overtime tally from a fourth-liner in his first game, eh?
| 2007 | Shaone Morrisonn | Mike Green |
| 2008 | Shaone Morrisonn | Mike Green |
| 2009 | Shaone Morrisonn | Mike Green |
| 2010 | Jeff Schultz | Mike Green |
| 2011 | Karl Alzner | John Carlson |
Mike Green is a two-time Norris Trophy finalist and a legitimate first-pairing defenseman in the NHL. But due to the emergence of Karl Alzner and John Carlson last season, the Caps now essentially have 1A and 1B defensive pairings. Expect Alzner and Carlson to continue to play the tough minutes, as they've got the perfect makeup for success in today's game - they're smart, they're mobile, they're good with the puck and they're quick decision-makers. At least two of those traits make them clear upgrades over Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn.
| 2007 | Jeff Schultz | Milan Jurcina |
| 2008 | John Erskine | Tom Poti |
| 2009 | Tom Poti | Milan Jurcina |
| 2010 | Tom Poti | John Carlson |
| 2011 | Roman Hamrlik | Mike Green |
A healthy Tom Poti was probably a legitimate top-four defenseman, but Milan Jurcina never was. Carlson quickly proved to be, and a Roman Hamrlik-Green pairing would be the top duo for plenty of teams around the League.
| 2007 | Brian Pothier | Tom Poti |
| 2008 | Jeff Schultz | Milan Jurcina |
| 2009 | John Erskine | Brian Pothier |
| 2010 | John Erskine | Karl Alzner |
| 2011 | Jeff Schultz | Dennis Wideman |
There may be no better third-pairing in hockey than Schultz and Dennis Wideman, yet another lefty-righty pairing that balances offensive and defensive skill and instincts.
| 2007 | Olie Kolzig | Brent Johnson |
| 2008 | Jose Theodore | Brent Johnson |
| 2009 | Jose Theodore | Semyon Varlamov |
| 2010 | Michal Neuvirth | Dany Sabourin |
| 2011 | Tomas Vokoun | Michal Neuvirth |
The Caps haven't had much stability in goal since Olie Kolzig grabbed his nameplate and left town, but that doesn't mean the talent hasn't been there - it has (Dany Sabourin's spot on the 2010 opening night roster due to an injury to Semyon Varalmov notwithstanding). In Tomas Vokoun, the Caps think they have "The Guy"... but that's likely just for a year before Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby resume their battle for the Number One role.
***
If there's any big conclusion to be drawn here, it's that the current incarnation of Boudreau's Caps are the deepest, most well-rounded and best-balanced crew that Gabby has had to work with. The pieces are there. Now it's up to Gabby to put them together... or these likely won't be Boudreau's Caps for much longer.
The lineups above were based on the following: 2007, Dump 'n Chase; 2008, Capitals Insider; 2009, Capitals Insider; 2010, Capitals Insider
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Because of the nature of Gabby’s line-swapping, are these opening night lines really accurate representations of the Caps each year?
a capital wasteland - art & hockey from washington, d.c.
It is representative of what he thought the optimal line combinations were at the start of his tenure/start of the season
If you've read this far...seek help.
Yep. Snapshots. Nothing more, nothing less (though in many cases, those lines/pairings did end up sticking for a good portion of the respective seasons, and the overall 20 skater sets for each year are obviously pretty representative of those teams, at least through the trade deadline).
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Understand the snapshots, the most challenging one is the first game he coached in terms of taking anything from those combos. Weren’t there a handful of games and then a break of almost a week where he stepped back and re-set things? If my memory is correct, curious what the combos looked like after that handful of games and then the break to look at things.
Not asking anyone to do the legwork, I may look back later…minor relevance given the Nov/Dec 2007 time period.
Yes. Definitely. But it’s an insight into what was there at the time.
As I noted, AO and Nick were soon put together (usually with Kozlov on the right) and rarely apart thereafter. The second line was pretty similar throughout. The third line had Clark for Pettinger, IIRC. Fourth line didn’t change a ton (Brash and Brads on the wings were constants.).
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Of course, Nylander got hurt right around the new year, Feds and Cooke came to town at the deadline… lots of change from when Bruce took over through the end of the year.
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___
Here are the top-15 line combos at ES during 2007-08 (keep in mind, of course, that Gabby was there for ~3/4 of the time):
12.25% EV 19 BACKSTROM,NICKLAS – 25 KOZLOV,VIKTOR – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER
5.66% EV 10 BRADLEY,MATT – 53 LAING,QUINTIN – 39 STECKEL,DAVID
2.55% EV 17 CLARK,CHRIS – 25 KOZLOV,VIKTOR – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER
2.46% EV 10 BRADLEY,MATT – 87 BRASHEAR,DONALD – 15 GORDON,BOYD
2.19% EV 24 COOKE,MATT – 91 FEDOROV,SERGEI – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
2.14% EV 19 BACKSTROM,NICKLAS – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER – 18 PETTINGER,MATT
1.97% EV 43 FLEISCHMANN,TOMAS – 92 NYLANDER,MICHAEL – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
1.96% EV 25 KOZLOV,VIKTOR – 92 NYLANDER,MICHAEL – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER
1.93% EV 14 FEHR,ERIC – 43 FLEISCHMANN,TOMAS – 21 LAICH,BROOKS
1.86% EV 43 FLEISCHMANN,TOMAS – 15 GORDON,BOYD – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
1.82% EV 10 BRADLEY,MATT – 87 BRASHEAR,DONALD – 21 LAICH,BROOKS
1.57% EV 19 BACKSTROM,NICKLAS – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
1.54% EV 10 BRADLEY,MATT – 87 BRASHEAR,DONALD – 39 STECKEL,DAVID
1.53% EV 15 GORDON,BOYD – 25 KOZLOV,VIKTOR – 8 OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER
1.44% EV 87 BRASHEAR,DONALD – 21 LAICH,BROOKS – 18 PETTINGER,MATT
And the top-15 D pairings:
23.12% EV 52 GREEN,MIKE – 26 MORRISONN,SHAONE
11.79% EV 23 JURCINA,MILAN – 3 POTI,TOM
8.21% EV 2 POTHIER,BRIAN – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
8.07% EV 52 GREEN,MIKE – 3 POTI,TOM
6.23% EV 23 JURCINA,MILAN – 26 MORRISONN,SHAONE
6.08% EV 3 POTI,TOM – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
4.26% EV 4 ERSKINE,JOHN – 52 GREEN,MIKE
4.13% EV 4 ERSKINE,JOHN – 23 JURCINA,MILAN
3.22% EV 4 ERSKINE,JOHN – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
3.07% EV 23 JURCINA,MILAN – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
2.63% EV 52 GREEN,MIKE – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
2.48% EV 2 POTHIER,BRIAN – 3 POTI,TOM
2.47% EV 44 EMINGER,STEVE – 4 ERSKINE,JOHN
2.34% EV 4 ERSKINE,JOHN – 2 POTHIER,BRIAN
2.13% EV 44 EMINGER,STEVE – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
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It would be interesting to take these numbers for each season, re-do the analysis using those lines, and then (to add some critique of GMGM) add in the percentage of cap each line/tender occupied.
Geeks of All Nations, Compile!
It would make for a great FanPost. I nominate… AMusingFool.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Hmm… capgeek seems to only have numbers for last two years (unless I’m missing something). And where do you get those line combo numbers?
Geeks of All Nations, Compile!
DobberHockey.com… but it’s a subscription service as of this year, unfortunately.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
If you prefer, these are the teams that fans got excited about at the start of each season (and Boudreau’s time behind the bench). With 20/20 hindsight, maybe not so much to be excited about in some cases.
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In 2009, that wasn’t all that bad a fourth line.
Wait, it was a what now?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Oct 4, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Best part (from the CI post for the 2009 lineup):
Note that Quintin Laing had to be bumped up to the third line to replace Caps’ cap casualty Chris Bourque, who was claimed off waivers by Pittsburgh yesterday.
Oh, sweet. That would’ve been much better.
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