Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals' Power Play: Occupy the Slot
The Washington Capitals' power play has been the topic of much concern and discussion among Caps fans dating back to at least the 1-for-33 debacle that was a (the?) primary culprit for 2010's first-round upset loss to Montreal. That unit had led the entire league in 2009-10, capitalizing on 25.2% of their chances, before stumbling in the post-season, and followed up that performance by converting at just a 17.5% clip last season, good for 15th in the league (tied with the Ottawa Senators). There are plenty of contributing factors in the decline of the Capitals power play (lack of movement, poor zone entries, lack of effort to win back loose pucks to name three). However, among all critiques of the Caps' power play, one always seems to come to the forefront: the utilization of Alex Ovechkin.
The engine of the Caps power play, indeed the engine for the team, has for years been Ovechkin. However, his power play potency has been steadily declining, from 22 goals in 2007-08, to 19 in 2008-09, to 13 in 2009-10, to just seven power play goals last season. And as any Caps fan can tell you (usually while shaking his or her head), Ovechkin has been a mainstay on the point during a Caps power play. But while it was once a (very) productive set up, teams have adjusted and it is no longer an optimal deployment.
There are five main concerns with Ovechkin manning the point. The first is that it requires him to chase down and retrieve pucks that are cleared by the penalty killing unit. This is among the most energy-consuming of all power play activities, and given his traditional shift length it doesn't make sense to have Ovechkin carrying the mail. The second is that leaving Ovechkin on the point (as a forward assuming a defensive positioning) leaves him, and the team, more susceptible to shorthanded rushes against. The third concern is that leaving Ovechkin on the point makes him easier for the opposition's penalty-killing unit to isolate. The fourth critique is related to the second and third critiques - leaving Ovechkin on the point limits his ability to be opportunistic and hunt down loose pucks in the offensive zone; his defensive responsibilities and isolation by the penalty killing unit make it much harder for him to find rebounds, strange bounces, and other fortuitous opportunities. Some people call it being in the right place at the right time, I call it being a shark in the offensive zone. Great scorers have that instinct, but Ovechkin's instinct is largely wasted at the point. The final critique is that it leaves the Capitals' best goal scorer shooting from the blue line, rather than taking higher-percentage shots closer to the net.
After the jump, we'll take a look at how Ovechkin has been scoring his power play goals, how penalty killing units have adjusted to his deployment on the point, and what a simple adjustment has done to change the entire look of the Caps power play in this young 2011-12 season.
First, let's take a look at all seven power-play goals Ovechkin scored during the regular season last year, the one power-play goal he scored in the playoffs, and his power-play goal this season. Note the location from which Ovechkin is shooting.October 30, 2010, @ Calgary Flames (5 on 3)
October 30, 2010, @ Calgary Flames
February 4, 2011, @ Tampa Bay Lightning
(That's right, Ovechkin didn't score a power play goal in November, December, or January last season.)
February 17, 2011, @ San Jose Sharks
[A note regarding my concern over short handed exploitation, this goal was scored shortly after Joe Pavelski scored a short handed goal on this same power play.]
February 21, 2011, @ Pittsburgh Penguins
[As with the previous picture, this goal came after Pittsburgh had two great scoring chances on the PK. No, the Penguins were unable to score a goal, but they had a two-on-one and then Jordan Staal had a clean breakaway before the Capitals finally scored this goal.]
March 9, 2011, home against Edmonton Oilers (His first, and only, power play goal in front of the home crowd last season. Yes, really.)
April 5, 2011, @ Toronto Maple Leafs (5 on 3)
May 3, 2011, @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Game 3 (5 on 3)
October 20, 2011, @ Philadelphia Flyers
What stands out about these screen captures is that only one of the goals came from an area that would traditionally be considered a point shot: the Penguins goal (arguably the Sharks goal as well, but that was a wrist shot and if you watch the replay video, Ovechkin is skating forward towards the high slot, not taking a traditional point shot). The rest of the shots come from the top of the circles or closer to the net (i.e. the generally accepted definition of the scoring chance area). By playing Ovechkin on the point, he spends most of his time outside the area that people consider to be the prime scoring area, and outside the area where he has, in fact, been scoring his power-play goals over the last season-plus. You may see these goals and conclude that his placement on the point isn't a concern; obviously he's still finding ways to get dangerous shots while playing on the point. The rebuttal is that he's only scored nine power play goals since opening night of the 2010-11 season. He's had a few more chances that haven't gone in, and you can't say that he's never produced from the point, but it doesn't seem optimal given what we know about the likelihood of goals being scored from the blueline, and what we see in the graphic evidence above.
Further, penalty killing units have figured this power play out. They are more than happy to contribute to the Caps' power-play woes by making sure Ovechkin doesn't get open shots from the tops of the circles. They aggressively play him on the penalty kill so that he has to stay out further by the blueline if he even wants a chance to get the puck. This isolates him from his teammates, and effectively turns the best scorer on the Caps into a passer at best, a decoy at worst. Let's see how teams do it.
Here you see the Detroit Red Wings send both forwards high to keep Ovechkin pressed against the boards. Ovechkin doesn't really have any options. He could try to pass through the box to Alexander Semin, but realistically his only play is to Dennis Wideman at center-point. The Red Wings read the pass, tip it out of the zone, and then force the Caps to spend the rest of the man advantage just trying to get control, much less get a quality chance. The last (only) shot the Caps get on this particular power play is from the following location.
As you can see, Ovechkin has to set up just inside the blueline just to get enough space to get a clean shot off. You can't see it in the frame, but the fifth Capital is standing in front of the net, right behind Nicklas Lidstrom, but from the distance from which Ovechkin is shooting, it's not going to be a dangerous shot... even if it manages to get through the penalty killers.
Philadelphia Flyers
As with Detroit, the Flyers are pressuring Ovechkin high in the zone to prevent him from getting near the top of the circles.
The high forward is still skating towards Ovechkin when this screen cap it taken, and shortly will be right in Ovechkin's space. Unless Ovechkin tries to beat the penalty killer one-on-one, he is going to have to move the puck across the point to John Carlson, which is a win for the Flyers penalty killers.
Here we see the weak-side Flyers penalty killer completely committed to denying Ovechkin the puck. He's still in the box formation, but he's out far enough that if Mike Green tries to pass to Ovechkin the pass will be intercepted or, at the very least, Ovechkin won't have any time or space to do anything with the puck when it gets there. This would be a risky pass to make, given how far out the penalty killer is. The Flyers have had one of the more dangerous penalty killing units in the league for several years now (though we'll see how that holds up without Mike Richards and Jeff Carter).
Here we see both Flyers penalty killing forwards out high in the zone, pressuring Ovechkin and Alex Semin. Semin makes an errant pass over to Ovechkin and the result is a two-on-one against. This ties back in to the concern about defensive vulnerability; small mistakes in passing can lead to high quality chances against when you play with the puck near the blue line.
As you can see here, the Devils aren't giving Ovechkin any room to operate near the top of the circles, they're keeping him up within a stick's length of the blue line.
Even when Ovechkin doesn't have the puck, there's a Devils penalty killer close enough to him to cut off the passing angle, or force the puck even further out to the blue line.
And despite the presence of a presumably more dangerous shooter right in the middle of the slot, the weak-side forward is shading with Ovechkin as Ovechkin tries to drift over to the top of the face off circle. They simply are not going to let him uncork a one-timer from anything resembling a prime scoring area. I'd love to know if Bruce Boudreau asked Jason Arnott about the Devils' penalty-killing strategy against the Caps and Ovechkin.
I had to take a look at the Rangers because it seems as though no penalty killer has given Ovechkin as much trouble on the point as Ryan Callahan has.
This isn't quite as aggressive as what we saw from Detroit, but you can clearly see that both forwards are set up well outside the tops of the face off circles. Neither Green nor Ovechkin has any opportunity to get to a scoring area. Again, notice that, just like the Devils, the Rangers are more content to leave an open player in the slot than to leave Ovechkin (or Green) any room to operate in scoring areas. To get the puck to the man in the slot Ovechkin would have to pass through the penalty killers, a risk the Rangers are willing to take.
Tampa Bay Lightning
And in case anyone is wondering whether Guy Boucher watches video, here are three screen caps taken from the playoffs. Consider it your pop quiz, how many similarities can you find with the screen caps above?
This shot was blocked.
The forward is pivoting and moving out closer to Ovechkin, this is not a stationary set up.
Now let's take a look at what happens to penalty killing units when the Capitals make one small adjustment by moving Ovechkin down lower in the power play set up. Such a set up has been used so far this season, and has been quite effective. The first time this set up really shined was against the Florida Panthers.
In case it's unclear, that's Ovechkin being swarmed by three penalty killers. Both penalty kill forwards and the strong-side defenseman have committed to Ovechkin because he's in a scoring area. Take a look at how much space this opens up for the point men, Green and Wideman.
And now look at how much space Marcus Johansson has down by the goal line. To be fair, Johansson isn't in what you'd normally consider scoring position (that is, if you'd never looked at where Johansson tends to score from), but that close to the net you generally would see more pressure on an offensive player. The strong-side defenseman is trying to get back down low but he isn't in full control and he's not in a position to put immediate pressure on Johansson. The result is a power play goal (though I'm sure Jacob Markstrom would like that one back).
The new-look power play continued it's strong play in the next game, against the Flyers. Above we saw how the Flyers normally put heavy pressure on the Capitals point men, but take a look at what happens when Ovechkin moves down to the slot.
Incredibly, there are once again three penalty killers surrounding Ovechkin, and the Flyers are forced to leave the Capitals point men wide open. Even more incredibly, Ovechkin manages to slide higher in the zone, find the least bit of open real estate, and fire a one-timer past Ilya Bryzgalov (with some thanks to Troy Brouwer). This is what it's like to be a shark in the offensive zone. Ovechkin sensed a tiny opening, and made no mistake when his partner in crime, Nicklas Backstrom, got the puck to him with a deft pass. (For more evidence of offensive zone opportunism, and the benefits of having Ovechkin near the net, look back to the other goal he scored against the Flyers, and his tip in against the Penguins, for that matter.)
The power play wasn't done after the Flyers game, however. Up next was the Detroit Red Wings, possibly the most aggressive penalty killers of the group surveyed above. How would they respond to seeing Ovechkin down low? This one needs some video to fully appreciate.
Just as with the Flyers and Panthers, the Red Wings show immediate concern for Ovechkin.
You notice that Niklas Kronwall picks up Ovechkin high in the slot and then stays with him as Ovechkin slides to the side of the net. Normally Kronwall would be the weak-side defenseman, but he's not concerned with any weak side Caps or any potential backdoor pass. His only concern is Ovechkin. But seeing as Detroit is only guarding Ovechkin with one player they seem a bit less concerned with Ovechkin than Florida or Philadelphia was. However, very shortly their concern will become evident.
The puck is sent behind the Detroit net and Kronwall immediately turns to chase the puck and put pressure on Backstrom. This is normal, but Brad Stuart turns and immediately chases Ovechkin. Chasing players behind the net, especially on the penalty kill, is very unusual, and many coaches consider it a Cardinal sin. However, Stuart is so concerned with Ovechkin down by the net (even more concerned than the Panthers were when Johansson actually had the puck near the net) that he beelines to cover Ovechkin.
The result is that after chasing Ovechkin behind the net (and some great puck movement by the Caps), the Red Wings have two defensemen covering Ovechkin in the corner, the weak-side forward attempting to cover Brouwer as he crashes the net, and the strong side forward trying to take away Backstrom's passing lanes.
The entire blue oval is open space, dangerous space, that can be exploited by talented players. Backstrom lays out a beautiful saucer pass for Green, and the rest is history. I'm sure Mike Babcock could identify more than a small handful of breakdowns on the part of the Red Wings, but this is one of the prettiest power plays Caps fans have seen in some time.
Based on the location of Ovechkin's most recent power play goals, the prevailing defensive strategy to guard him when he's on the point, and the success of the new-look power play, we can only hope that Alex Ovechkin continues to occupy the slot. It won't be a panacea in itself - the Caps will continue to need to work hard and create movement on the power play, continue to get clean zone entries, and be prepared to adjust against the inevitable penalty killing adjustment - but playing Ovechkin closer to the net should allow the team to maximize the talent on their power play unit, and hopefully maximize Ovechkin's individual production.
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Bravo sir. That is some in-depth analysis indeed, though I did hear that you stole the baseline stats from Huey Lewis.
Jokes aside, I hope that someone forwards this to BBBB.
I don’t think BB needs any advice from me.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Oct 26, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your analysis was a fun read, thank you for posting it.
But I agree, Boudreau knows this already. Whatever Boudreau did to actually tweak the powerplay, it was a lot more than “hey, after a whole year of watching video, we all just noticed Ovechkin’s goals come from the faceoff circle and in. Hey Ovi, try being closer in and let’s see what happens.” A man who has devoted his life to hockey offense operates at a much higher level than that.
Outstanding work. I thought the key to the PPG against Detroit was the quick exchange of passes between AO and NB. Nice work by AO to recognize that it was time to dish the puck right back to NB when he got it.
No denying that AO’s presence down low and in the slot has created a bunch of space for other players out there.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Well as Peerless points out, the movement that entire PP was great. The puck never stood still, it made it’s way all around the rink, and everyone touched it. That’s just perfect execution. But yes, that final give and go with Nick and AO was what ultimately blew the PK box apart and opened up the middle of the ice for Baxter and Green to exploit.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
One question that jumps to mind right off: does this change in 8’s positioning get made sooner if Wideman stays healthy in March/April 2011? This had to be part of McPhee’s recognition—with a foundation of the 5 bad reasons to leave Ovechkin on the point—that we needed more offense from the blueline on the PP (given that JC was badassing it up during other important parts of the game at evens and SH).
Cross check and all call.
damn
and by we, I mean the Caps*
Cross check and all call.
by bigonetimer on Oct 26, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Well if you re-watch every minute of PP during the TBL series (which I did… painfully) you’ll see that AO had been moved to the slot for about 50% of the PP time he was on the ice. Laich was playing the point, which comes with it’s own bag of issues, but BB was at least trying it. He just didn’t stick with it, and put AO back on the point for the crunch-time PPs in the third (like the game I took the screen caps from above, game 2 I believe). I think it would have been more effective with Wideman on the point, I really like what he’s been able to accomplish on the PP in terms of puck movement and getting shots through.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
What would be interesting is looking at how the PP was run in the reg. season after Wideman joined it and before (obviously) his injury. It was about the only time that unit showed some life.
Completely, flabbergastingly excellent. This is the kind of in-depth hockey analysis I love, and this was spot-on.
But that still wouldn’t show the potential we’re seeing now as Greener and Wides never got the chance to play together.
"You can want to get to April but when you get to April you may not like the answers you get, so you might as well enjoy the ride while it's going on." - Brian McNally on JRR, 8/29/2011
I don’t recall Laich on the point (because I don’t have a very good memory). Who else were the options then, with all the D hurt? Carlson? The point sounds really out of position for him..
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → b a (select) start
The closer and closer Washington gets to TBL’s PP scheme in that series, the more goals they’ll score.
It seemed like they always had the Caps PK moving and flailing about to get into position. . . .it was usually just a matter of time until 3 guys were on one side of the ice and MSL was on the other, camping out.
Soon the Championship with be ours, all ours!
IIRC, Didn’t we score a power play goal (Ovi from up high, Knuble with the deflection) early in game 3, only to have it negated in a TMM penalty?
"You can want to get to April but when you get to April you may not like the answers you get, so you might as well enjoy the ride while it's going on." - Brian McNally on JRR, 8/29/2011
Worthy chalk talk.
Rooting for the Caps from the OBX.
by Acer Jonesy's Laughker on Oct 26, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
1-3-1. The Caps worked on this in camp, in detail, all the way to spacing and where players should align the “3” axis across the ice. Ovechkin is in the middle of the 1-3-1 cross; it was where he scored from before Max Talbot could take away his stick in the Flyer game.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Yeah, you could also consider it an umbrella set up. I wouldn’t mind if AO was on the left wing on an umbrella, but it’s so tempting for him to suck up to the point and get out of that face off circle that I think I’d prefer him in the slot area.
Another thing to look at in the video of the Red Wings goal, look at how much ice AO covers on that shift. He isn’t responsible to be in one corner of the zone, he moves around reacting to the puck and that causes a lot more difficulty for the D to cover him.
Please, call me F&B.
It was interesting to watch these guys in camp working on this; the coaches were very specific about where they wanted the 3-across positioning themselves (top of the circles or across the dots…exactly where escapes me at the moment). To see it unfold the way it did against the Flyers was fun to watch.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Oct 26, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
could the success of our power play be using Ovi to pull the penalty killers out of position in overcommiting on him to set up open shots for the rest of the unit?
RAMPAGE
by JediChewbacca on Oct 26, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s something I was trying to convey. By having him in the middle of the ice it tends to collapse the box and pull the forwards lower, which opens more room on the outside and at the points.
But theoretically, the Caps should be able to take advantage of extra space even when he’s on the point. As some of those screen caps showed, there is more open space in the middle of the ice, so it’s a matter of getting the puck there. There’s also the potential for quickly reversing the puck to the far side from Ovechkin, but that requires good puck/foot movement, another thing that has often been lacking in the PP. It’s also a risk to have AO go D-to-D along the blueline to try to get the puck to Green or Wideman or whoever is on the far point. If you spread the D too far then there’s a chance the pass gets picked off and goes the other way on the breakaway.
Something I noticed was that even when AO started on the point, his quality shots came from the top of the circles. The Caps would work the puck on the far side of the ice from AO, and then let him slide down. The concern there is that it left a huge area of unmanned point. It ended up looking like a mis-formed Umbrella (or 1-3-1 as Peerless put it) and still had Ovechkin worried about getting back up ice.
Please, call me F&B.
To my eyes, one of the problems with having Ovie on the point is that the other guys on the ice seemed determined to get the puck to him for a shot, and Ovie seemed determined to shoot it if he possibly could when he got it. I’m not yet sure if that’s less true this year, but the results so far indicate a greater willingness to have the defensemen blast it from the point (and they should, since they’re much more open with the havoc 8 is causing down below).
So while there should be more open ice below the tops of the circles with Ovie on the point, it’s not utilized to full effect in that alignment. And, as you illustrate very well, if anything goes awry on a pass attempt to get it down low away from the pressure, there’s a pretty good chance the PKers get a scoring chance going the other way.
by grapejoos on Oct 26, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great lunchtime read.
Out of curiosity, what defines “strong side” and “weak side” defenseman?
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Strong side is where the puck is, weak side is the far side of the ice from the puck. It’ll constantly change as the puck moves.
Please, call me F&B.
Then where does the tight end line up?
"How can you trust a man who wears both a belt and suspenders? The man can't even trust his own pants."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 26, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Stop threadjacking.
But just to be polite, the tight end lines up right where Joe Flacco is going to throw the ball high and wide.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Oct 26, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Great post F&B Rob.
"How can you trust a man who wears both a belt and suspenders? The man can't even trust his own pants."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Oct 26, 2011 12:42 PM EDT reply actions
Another amazing job. Sneaking in the MarJo content and link was a value add.
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Having wideman and green in itself is a huge boon to the pp. I mean how many get did those 2 actually get to play together. Ovi is an underrated passer IMO but you’d still rather have him shoot plus green and baxter are far superior passers, wideman is at least as good. Getting ovi to where he can shoot more and let the passers pass will also go a long way – again more to why you don’t see players like….. Sid, Geno, Stamkos, D Sedin, or Perry at the blue / whistle
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
by breaklance on Oct 26, 2011 1:51 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
I agree that AO’s an underrated passer, I just would like to see him used in a way that allows him to more fully utilize his skill set.
And that’s a fair point about Green and Wideman getting to play together, they really didn’t get much of a chance last year.
Please, call me F&B.
And that’s a fair point about Green and Wideman getting to play together, they really didn’t getmuch of aany chance last year.
FIFY
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
It’s a rather simple objective: use the literal extra man advantage to open up ice for quality scoring chances. I think because the idea is so simple, players and coaches often have the excuse, “We just need to simplify things.”
This awesome analysis, along with Peerless’ great article, shows that how a team achieves that open ice is the make or break element of every Power Play.
Putting Ovechkin in the slot/high slot area allows him to use his entire skill set, rather than just his shooting ability and 1 on 1 elusiveness. In the slot Ovechkin’s size and speed allows him almost free reign in a usually contentious area, he has more passing lanes available than point-to-point or down the wall, and he has a completely open shot selection because of his proximity to the goal.
IDK how similar this situation would be; but, Peerless’ video of the 2nd Mike Green PPG shows very similar 2 on 1 coverage on Ovechkin http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGX-NQSnpQU&feature=player_embedded.
Ovechkin with the puck on the half wall basically drags the entire PK unit to the left side, leaving Lars and Green very open on the right side.
Soon the Championship with be ours, all ours!
Yeah, I definitely looked at that goal, it just didn’t demonstrate what I was trying to convey quite as clearly. As you said, the two DET players do converge on AO, and then as the F is trying to recover that’s what opens up the seam from AO to Green across the ice. Watch as Brouwer picks up the puck in the corner, goes straight to the point, and then as Helm is trying to get to the point the puck goes right back to AO and he immediately crosses to Green. Again, masterful use of puck movement (and battling for loose pucks).
Please, call me F&B.
great stuff
great analysis. It appears that, at least at one time, it must have been an advantage to play #8 at the point – in 2009-2010, the Caps were the top PP team in the league during the regular season. I’d be interested in seeing some clips from that year when the Caps were scoring at such a great clip, to find out what had changed.
I love when football announcers call the NFL “a league of adjustments” – all professional sports leagues are leagues of adjustments – this just proves it. Other teams adjusted to what the Caps were doing, and the Caps adjusted what they were doing, and started doing something else.
by shotfromthepoint on Oct 26, 2011 3:02 PM EDT reply actions
I actually started looking at every one of AO’s PP points in 2009-10, but that obviously was going to take forever. It’s a slow week for the Caps so I was hoping to get some content out for people to chew on. I had no idea this was the Week of the Power Play in the Caps blogosphere, I swear there wasn’t a memo.
And yeah, pro sports are a game of adjustments, and the Caps will have to adjust again. Except for MLB. When was the last MLB adjustment (no, steroids, or the banning of steroids, don’t count). When was the last modification that changed the way the game is played?
Please, call me F&B.
The knuckleball? The shift for power-hitting lefties? Certainly nothing big.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
I’m sure it was a huge shock when it debuted, though. That’s all. (Furthering your point that certainly nothing has happened recently.) But, no, the fundamental pitch-hit-catch has stayed the same. Proponents would say there’s beauty in the simplicity, detractors say it’s fucking boring. Tomato-tomato.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
For MLB, was the last change a lowering of the pitching mound?
The banning of greenies (an amphetamine, not a steriod) more recently (2006) has been a significant adjustment, apparently.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
I had no idea this was the Week of the Power Play in the Caps blogosphere, I swear there wasn’t a memo.
Next week: stick curves
If you've read this far...seek help.
Non PDE related, the pitching mound was lowered in ’69, right after McLain and Gibson smoked folks. The DH might also be another rule change to consider in terms of AL to NL comparisons.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
"I worry that we're reaching that point where college-age kids don't know what goatse is anymore."
by Bald Pollack on Oct 26, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that last season, they never really got on one of those hot streaks. The Caps PP has always had terrible cold streaks but they always ended up scoring again without really changing the look and I believe they thought the same thing would eventually happen, but it didn’t.
You tried your best and failed miserably. The lesson is "Never Try."
I took a look at Ovi’s PP goals for 2009-2010, and where they were scored from:
pp goal 1: between the faceoff dot and the top of the circle, left wing
pp goal 2: three feet above the top of the circle left wing
pp goal 3: 5 feet below the blue line, in between the circles
pp goal 4: halfway between the top of the circles and the blue line, in between the circles
pp goal 5: <5 feet away from the goal
pp goal 6: 3 feet inside the top of the circle, left wing
pp goal 7: halfway inbetween the top of the circles and the blue line, in between the circles
pp goal 8: four feet above the top of the circle, inbetween the circles
pp goal 9: halfway between the blue line and the top of the circle, right wing
pp goal 10: 1 foot above the top of the circle, right wing
pp goal 11: faceoff dot, right wing
pp goal 12: 3 feet above the top of the circle left wing/center ice
(vague descriptions I know but hopefully they get the point across)
video used: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYTm9eHjDY4
anyways, what F&B, uh, err, Rob, pointed out is that Ovi typically doesn’t take point shots when he scores on the PP, and that seemed to be true for the 2009-2010 season as well. Amateur speculation on my part, but the reason Ovi was successful on the point that season as opposed to 2010-2011 was that a typical PK unit plays closer to the goal to cut off passing lanes through the slot. This left Ovi with a bunch of room to walk in from the blue line and shoot from closer range, which led to more goals. After teams (montreal) realized what was happening, Ovi started getting covered and the rest is history.
Nice work, and I’d agree with that assessment. I didn’t go back far enough to try to track the entire adjustment made by other teams but I think that a) your logic on it is most likely right and b) it probably started with MON, though it may have happened shortly before that, after the Olympics.
Please, call me F&B.
Please, call me F&B.
Will do F&B, glad this got noticed. I do remember Ovi’s production taking a dive after the Olympics, although I couldn’t say if it was the PP failing or Ovi slumping. Probably a little of both tbh. Either way, I feel like he’s been broken ever since then and the situation hasn’t really been remedied, but that’s a whole new topic.
Stellar content.
Interestingly, Shots/60 on the PP have fallen dramatically this season (although it’s still way early), but qualitatively, it’s looking much better. It’ll be worth watching to see if the shooting percentage can stay over 20% even if the shot rate is down, or if it corrects as teams adjust (and hopefully the Caps counter-adjust).
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 26, 2011 4:01 PM EDT reply actions
That will definitely be the thing to watch. I’m not sold that high shot rate is the sign of a great PP, but we may get some insight into that as this season plays out. The shot rate was very good last year, but the PP stunk. Maybe the shot rate goes down this year, but if the PP is more efficient I’m not going to conclude that they were unlucky last year and lucky this year (even if that ends up being a factor).
Please, call me F&B.
I’m pretty sure that it doesn’t even reach 50% (or 40%) of explanatory power, it’s just higher than any other measure I can name. Obviously there’s a ton of luck, but there also has to be something else. Like, lots of something else.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 26, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think if there’s anywhere shot quality is going to show up as significant, it’s the PP, but I still have no idea how you could measure shot quality in anything but a very crude manner.
Please, call me F&B.
I don’t think you’ll be able to until there’s widespread touch-tracking at 10th second intervals via RFID or similar. Even then, I don’t know how you account for things like how flat the puck is laying or how tightly the player is checked.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 26, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec’d (of course with 37 of them and still counting this statement is from the Redundancy Department of Redundancy).
You and Neil got shout outs today from Applebaum at CI, and Tarik even got in the act of analyzing the PP. Wish she had linked Peerless’s piece as well.
I love days in which I feel smarter after reading such great analyses. This is a seriously great post but then I have always loved your use of visuals F&B (aka Rob Parker).
rec'd
excellent analysis, always feels like I learn more about hockey after reading posts like these

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