The Noon Number
.33 - Combined points per game (14 points in 42 games) for Mathieu Perreault and Marcus Johansson this season
over 1 year ago
J.P.
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In the aggregate, that is a chilling number. I’d be concerned if my third line center was on a 27-point pace, let alone my second line center. But these guys having so little experience, it might be more revealing in the end to see if their production improved over a series of five-game or ten-game segments. If they score ten points in their last ten combined games, or even 15 in their last 20, the situation might look a lot brighter.
If you've read this far...seek help.
I agree, for two guys so young, and both rookies, I am looking more for a general steady improvement to a solid number, rather than an aggregate number for over the season…
But that said, that is still alarmingly low.
I like Laich, but I <3 Green
Keep the faith!!!!!!
by RockinRed4Life on Jan 6, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
It should also be noted that MP85 is at .5 (7 points in 14 games), so the combined total drags him down a bit. But my point was more that the position has been a hole all year and the guy to fill it isn’t necessarily here (duh). Plus, MP85 got demoted and MJ90 promoted to the spot last game, so it’s still somewhat in flux.
Also, not to absolve Alex Semin completely, but I think this number speaks to his struggles a bit.
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I’d agree with all of that. The number may be misleading a little bit because, as Peerless said, Mackan is on an upward trajectory after not having much offense at all early in the season. I’m not sure if MP is finding that elusive consistency, but if he does you’d also expect that to start to bring that number up. Either way, it looks like at least one of them will be with us in the playoffs. We have about a month to figure out how to fill the other spot and then they can battle out the 3C spot.
Drunk Guy: "Alex Ovechkin is playing more like Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan this year."
Laichitor: "He has AIDS?"
… assuming that the elder of the two isn’t traded.
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Right, but I’d presume (hope?) that if the elder is traded it’s in return for a more experienced and playoff-ready C to take that spot.
Drunk Guy: "Alex Ovechkin is playing more like Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan this year."
Laichitor: "He has AIDS?"
Sure. But that would eliminate the battle (obv).
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combined result of experience and linemates. one of them could have been between semin / laich for the last month and not had much to show for it.
As teams fall out of the race, I’m sure names will show up that might be available.
As I was typing got a refresh, agree with F&B that they can battle for 3C if we can address the 2C spot.
Refs allow play to continue....
More needed analysis: is that better or worse than Ovie, Backstrom, and Semin?
They’ll have plenty of time to improve this number, because due to the wonder of scheduling we only play 1 game (Saturday) in the next 7 days since our 0-1 OT loss on Tuesday but starting next Tuesday we have 9 games in 16 days!
And while MJ90 has improved, he had 0-1-1 in 11 December games. That won’t work.
The Kolzilla PR department has advised me to post a link to my work at Inside Hockey, so here it is.
www.Insidehockey.com
did anyone come out of December looking even marginally ok?
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
In terms of Johansson, I think his numbers aren’t indicitive of his play. While inconsistent early, his game has improved very steadily. A lot of his lack of points are A) him not finishing despite a fantastic drive to the net (which shows elite talent at times, but still something missing) and B) his teammates inexplicably not finishing on a great chance. Both instances have been fairly common, especially when lined up with a slumping Fehr and a stone-handed Chimera.
Is the above criteria part of hockey? Sure, of course it is. It shouldn’t necessarily be an excuse. But I have noticed those factors being a key ingredient as to why MarJo’s point totals are so low. Because his play on ice, what my eyes have seen, don’t indicate a player who has little offensive flair.
by Charlie Foxtrot on Jan 6, 2011 12:40 PM EST reply actions
It also seems that MarJo has been plagued by a lot of nagging injuries and illness this year as well. The hip pointer. Also the flu, among other things. I’m sure it hasn’t helped his productivity any.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
But last year it was Brendan Morrison, right? And he had like 5 points his last 40 games. (I might be exaggerating here, but it was quite a long dry spell.) So it’s not like team scoring has generally depending on the 2nd line center.
Apropos of nothing, I still totally love watching both 90 and 85 on the ice, they have so much energy. And 90 reminds me of Joe Juneau, which is a nice thought.
BMo ended the year with 43 points.
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Morrison was 2-15-17 in his last 37 games with the Caps last year after going 10-15-25 in his first 27 games.
This year, he is 1-4-5 in his last 23 games; he has had more than two shots on goal in a game once in that span.
Anyone thinking that he should have been re-signed as the 2C option…uh, no.
If you've read this far...seek help.
So it’s not like team scoring has generally depending on the 2nd line center.
Not sure how much I agree – the second line was a complete and total disaster in the Montreal series and was a primary reason the Caps were bounced.
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Teams in the playoffs are, by their nature, deeper (unless you have an ungodly first line and not much of a second…like the Caps last year). They probably have a second D-pair that can handle a second line effectively; shut them down if that second line isn’t very good. MTL had a veteran defense. They rendered the Caps second line invisible. Hard to win a series that way, unless the top line is hot all the time, and the Caps’ wasn’t.
If you've read this far...seek help.
So what are the options. Jason Arnott? Tim Connolly? Now that Dallas seems like to hold onto Richards, there isn’t a whole lot out there, at least in terms of guys with expiring contracts.
Do the Caps necessarily need to trade for a center with an expiring contract? Seems to me that they could add someone decent with additional years as long as they feel OK with possibly losing Semin after the season is over. I guess whether they feel someone currently on the roster can adequately fill the 2C role next season would also figure in the decision.
Weiss. Who is mentioned a lot around here. Only to free up the cash for him, you’d probably have to ship out Semin.
"And then they’ll look at guys in my situation, that could play three good games in a row and have one bad shift, and they’ll say, ‘Well, that’s why he’s been in the minor leagues his whole career.'" --Matt Hendricks
Caps can afford Weiss in one week. No problem fitting him under the cap.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 6, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
Now we just have to figure out what to cough up to get him.
On the trading subject (but different trade): I doubt if Dallas would trade Richards at this point, someone proposed trading Schultz and Fehr to get him. So, I did some quick calculations, based on the salary differentials and the resulting cap hit and figured that the Caps could probably have afforded Mr. Richards. I figured the net result for the Caps would be a kick ass second line but weaker in defense than before since I was figuring that Schultz is probably a better D man than Hannan. And our problems with defensive depth would return. (I supported the Hannan trade, BTW). I also figured the 3rd line would be worse sans Fehr as well.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Would prospects for Weiss possibly interest Florida? I don’t know the state of their farm system. The Caps have plenty of prospects who can be traded, and quite a few were on the Bears during some of the recent championships.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
no need for quick calculations — feel free to use the spreadsheet I linked to. Anyone can edit it.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 7, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
The caps have plenty of talent in their system to get just about anyone. Of course, they’d have to bring a goalie in in whatever trade they made if it did happen, but they have two that could fetch just about anyone were they to dangle one of them. I don’t think it would be the norm to hold onto two young goalies with the potential they both have. Then again…
Hard to believe it's almost been a year - Admiral, your caps are playing well again.
by alisterio on Jan 6, 2011 2:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
MarJo might be ready to play 2C by the end of next season. Adding someone with a deal beyond this year might hinder re-signing Semin (and Laich, who’s also up). And they’ll eventually have to pay guys like Alzner, Calrson, and Varly too so I don’t know how much more money they want to tie up.
If you were looking to add a guy with just one more year, I could see it. But that list isn’t much more impressive than the 2011 list.
I was in the camp that was hopeful the Caps would trade Semin last offseason to address the 2C need. He almost had me change my mind with his hot play early in the year, but then the clock struck midnight and he reverted back to the inconsistent/indifferent player he’s always been. I’m not advocating trading him right now, but wouldn’t mind the Caps letting him go after the season.
I advocate trading Semin now if he can bring us a solid 2C. A good 2C is more valuable than a great 2W. (And it’s debatable whether Semin is even a great winger.)
The "Other" Box Seats Blogger
There’s no debate there. Semin is a great winger, 1st line on almost any team, but it’s a matter of whether he’s putting out the effort. He is among the most talented players in the NHL, but also among the ones with the worst work ethic.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
Semin’s also a bit fragile on the health front, as well. While he hasn’t missed time with major injuries, he’s had enough minor injuries over the years, generally missing about 10-20 games.
I also don’t believe he’s been totally healthy this month either and I’m sure that’s contributed to his lack of productivity. I recall reading about his missing practice before a game in late Nov due to a nagging injury — the trainers recommending that he take off. Then, the flu that caused him to miss practice. Soon after that, the “lower body injury” and reports that he’d limping. And he was playing in the NJ game where he was considered “doubtful” only one day earlier, on a day when Fehr had left town for his grandfather’s funeral and Hendricks suddenly couldn’t play that day (sick), indicating a guy who came back sooner than optimal. Get well, Sasha! And this goes for Ovi as well. There comes a point where trying to play through an injjry is counterproductive.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Can’t argue with Semin’s injury history – 77, 63, 62, 73 GP in the last 4 seasons. And he has already missed 3 games this season – and could have missed more, as you said. However – can I just say Gaborik?
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
I think Gaborik’s injury track record is worse — or at least he’s had more long term injuries or more games lost to injury over the years. He is a more disciplined player in terms of penalties.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
He does have a bad injury record. Of his nine seasons, he’s been over 75 GP in 4 of them, and over 70 in another. However, he’s had 2 of 65, 1 of 48, and 1 of 17. And this season, he’s only been in 27 out of 41 games. Regardless of that, Gaborik is still considered an elite winger, and for good reason. He’s been over 30 goals 6 times, including the season where he only played 48 games. Bringing up Gaborik was simply showing that a bad health record doesn’t stop a player from being great.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
For comparison purposes, last year’s 4 Stanley Cup semi-finalists each had at least two centers that averaged 0.75 points per game.
The "Other" Box Seats Blogger
by Kareem E. on Jan 6, 2011 3:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
They probably didn’t have as much production from their wingers as the Caps have had (or expect to have), but I think we’re seeing that the production of those wingers is at least somewhat predicated on having a 2C that can pull on the rope too.
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I would upgrade your “somewhat predicated” to “very predicated”. A good center is the key to a successful line. Imagine what Semin could do if he had a decent center? I believe his best year was skating with a washed up Fedorov in 08-09 where he averaged 1.27 ppg.
Ovechkin notwithstanding, I think the best player on a line has to be the center as they impact CORSI (for and against) much more than wingers do. That’s why I’m not in love with the Caps keeping Semin and continuing to build around wingers. It’s like stockpiling WRs when you have a very poor QB.
The "Other" Box Seats Blogger
I’d much rather take the money that could be committed to Semin and go after Richards in the offseason and build the second line around him instead of Sasha. But that doesn’t help the Caps for 2011.
The next 2C shouldn’t be anything more than a bridge to Marjo or Kuz or Stan, in my opinion, unless it’s a guy who’s barely of UFA age or younger. Richards I think is a bit too old—guys will start dropping off the map unexpectedly at that age. Richards will come a bit pricey I bet, and I doubt the true talent of Richards is actually 90 points. Well, without soft minutes, at least.
As for availability, Dallas’ underlying numbers are pretty weak. More drastic difference between those and actual performance than the Avs last year, or close at least. Florida is on the other side of that coin—great underlying numbers, no results. Quite honestly, with the way the West is right now, I think Dallas finishes 11th or 12th, ahead of Edmonton, Anaheim, and some team(s) like Columbus and Calgary. Question is whether they slip soon enough to realize that trading Richards is the right move. I don’t doubt FLA makes the playoffs, and the division winners should be scared of that team—Montreal, but flat out better in every way except special teams.
More on topic, with each passing day I’m more and more comfortable with the idea that if a 2C can’t be had, going in with MP and MJ as the middle two centers and upgrading on wing could work. Someone maybe along the lines of Penner or Hemsky to be 2LW, to make those wings much stronger with guys who legitimately drive possession even from the wing (2011 UFA of course preferable).
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Jan 7, 2011 9:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t buy Florida making the playoffs or Dallas dropping nearly as far as you say. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas loses the division lead, but I don’t see them dropping out of the playoff picture – unless they make the mistake of trading Richards. Florida making the playoffs is highly unlikely. They still have to play quite a few games against Washington, Tampa, and Atlanta (12 total) as well as teams like Pittsburgh and Philly. Their team just isn’t that good.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
They have the fewest gp. I guess doh oyes Pythagorean post helps explain it more. Special teams and bad luck are all that’s keeping that team down. Meanwhile, west is just too strong for Dallas to stay at the top.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Jan 8, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
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