FanPost

Late 1st Round Draft Pick Success Rate



These are all of the Capitals' picks in the 20-30 range from the past 10 drafts:

2001, 2002, 2003, 2007: no picks

2004: Schultz (27), Green (29)

2005: Finley (27)

2006: Varlamov (23)

2008: Gustafsson (21), Carlson (28)

2009: Johansson (24)

2010: Kuznetzonv (26)

Of these eight picks, five have made the NHL, with a sixth looking very likely in Kuznetzov.  And all of those five have not just made the NHL, but are at minimum good NHL regulars, with Green already being a star and Carlson and Varlamov having star potential.  Obviously, Finley and Gustafsson appear to be poor picks, but overall, 3/4 of these picks look to be successful.

Let's compare that to other teams' drafting in the 20-30 range.

I classified the players in the following manner:

  • bolded and italicized: top player by my judgment
  • bolded: NHL regular judge by games played in comparison with the amount of time since they were drafted.  A skater had to have played more games than the years since drafted minus four (to account for the time it takes for players to reach the NHL) x 50, which is the minimum amount of games a regular NHL player would appear in per season.  So that's 300 games minimum for players drafted in 2001, 250 for those drafted in 2002, 200 for those drafted in 2003, and so on until 50 for those drafted in 2006 and 0 for 2007.  For goalies, I used the same formula except I multiplied it by 30.    Obviously, games played would be a lousy measure of higher levels of performance, but it works for this purpose.
  • italicized: players who do not meet the above criteria but are considered to be successful, are late bloomers, or to still have potential in some manner.  Again, I used my judgment for this.

Note: the statistics next to the players name are not necessarily complete.

2001:

20 San Jose Sharks Marcel Goc Schwenningen 375 40 63 103 -10 94
21 Pittsburgh Penguins Colby Armstrong Red Deer 387 84 106 190 29 336
22 Buffalo Sabres Jiri Novotny Ceske Budejovice 189 20 31 51 -15 66
23 Ottawa Senators Tim Gleason Windsor 436 14 81 95 -3 430
24 Florida Panthers Lukas Krajicek Peterborough 328 11 61 72 -30 245
25 Montreal Canadiens Alexander Perezhogin Avangard Omsk 128 15 19 34 16 86
26 Dallas Stars Jason Bacashihua Chicago (NAHL) 38 0 1 1 0 2 38 7 17 4 .897 3.19
27 Philadelphia Flyers Jeff Woywitka Red Deer 216 6 37 43 3 131
28 New Jersey Devils Adrian Foster Saskatoon
29 Chicago Blackhawks Adam Munro Erie 17 0 1 1 0 2 17 4 10 3 .887 3.30
30 Los Angeles Kings David Steckel Ohio State 273 22 33 55 2 106

 

2002:

20 Buffalo Sabres Daniel Paille Guelph 289 45 55 100 13 75
21 Chicago Blackhawks Anton Babchuk Elektrostal 212 29 53 82 -1 92
22 New York Islanders Sean Bergenheim Jokerit Helsinki 289 48 50 98 -21 229
23 Phoenix Coyotes Ben Eager Oshawa 289 30 32 62 -8 698
24 Toronto Maple Leafs Alex Steen Vastra Frolunda 425 95 133 228 -4 176
25 Carolina Hurricanes Cam Ward Red Deer 308 0 9 9 0 14 308 156 112 28 .908 2.77
26 Dallas Stars Martin Vagner Hull
27 San Jose Sharks Mike Morris St. Sebastian's (High-MA)
28 Colorado Avalanche Jonas Johansson HV 71 Jonkoping Jr. 1 0 0 0 0 2
29 Boston Bruins Hannu Toivonen HPK Hameenlinna 61 0 0 0 0 10 61 18 24 10 .890 3.37
30 Atlanta Thrashers Jim Slater Michigan State 371 47 53 100 4 280

 

 

2003:

20 Minnesota Wild Brent Burns Brampton 415 50 113 163 -18 274
21 Boston Bruins Mark Stuart Colorado College 278 12 25 37 32 284
22 Edmonton Oilers Marc Pouliot Rimouski 179 21 32 53 -7 74
23 Vancouver Canucks Ryan Kesler Ohio State 446 114 143 257 26 419
24 Philadelphia Flyers Mike Richards Kitchener 416 124 198 322 39 376
25 Florida Panthers Anthony Stewart Kingston 151 14 24 38 -2 67
26 Los Angeles Kings Brian Boyle St. Sebastian's (High-MA) 152 26 12 38 -4 133
27 Los Angeles Kings Jeff Tambellini U. of Michigan 210 27 34 61 -20 86
28 Anaheim Ducks Corey Perry London 414 140 178 318 40 513
29 Ottawa Senators Patrick Eaves Boston College 343 69 58 127 16 135
30 St. Louis Blues Shawn Belle Tri City 16 0 1 1 0 0

 

 

2004:

20 New Jersey Devils Travis Zajac Salmon Arm 369 83 145 228 39 119
21 Colorado Avalanche Wojtek Wolski Brampton 358 86 142 228 9 97
22 San Jose Sharks Lukas Kaspar Chemopetrol Litvinov 16 2 2 4 -2 8
23 Ottawa Senators Andrej Meszaros Dukla Trencin 422 35 122 157 32 311
24 Calgary Flames Kris Chucko Salmon Arm 2 0 0 0 0 2
25 Edmonton Oilers Rob Schremp London 79 14 31 45 -10 20
26 Vancouver Canucks Cory Schneider Andover (High-MA) 23 0 3 3 0 0 23 10 6 3 .913 2.68
27 Washington Capitals Jeff Schultz Calgary 283 9 52 61 79 107
28 Dallas Stars Mark Fistric Vancouver 167 3 16 19 28 157
29 Washington Capitals Mike Green Saskatoon 355 79 162 241 58 282
30 Tampa Bay Lightning Andy Rogers Calgary

 

2005:

21 Toronto Maple Leafs Tuukka Rask Ilves Tampere Jr. 64 0 3 3 0 2 64 29 21 7 .929 2.12
22 Boston Bruins Matt Lashoff Kitchener 63 1 14 15 -16 53
23 New Jersey Devils Niclas Bergfors Sodertalje 125 31 39 70 -13 14
24 St. Louis Blues T.J. Oshie Warroad (High-MN) 146 33 64 97 18 72
25 Edmonton Oilers Andrew Cogliano St. Michael's Jr. B 288 51 74 125 -21 108
26 Calgary Flames Matt Pelech Sarnia 5 0 3 3 1 9
27 Washington Capitals Joe Finley Sioux Falls
28 Dallas Stars Matt Niskanen Virginia (High-MN) 268 16 66 82 -4 129
29 Philadelphia Flyers Steve Downie Windsor 169 34 47 81 13 436
30 Tampa Bay Lightning Vladimir Mihalik Presov 15 0 3 3 -7 8

 

2006:

20 Montreal Canadiens David Fischer Apple Valley (High-MN)
21 New York Rangers Bobby Sanguinetti Owen Sound (OHL) 5 0 0 0 0 4
22 Philadelphia Flyers Claude Giroux Gatineau (QMJHL) 170 42 70 112 4 55
23 Washington Capitals Semyon Varlamov Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 2 49 0 1 1 0 4 49 27 10 9 .917 2.41
24 Buffalo Sabres Dennis Persson Vasteras
25 St. Louis Blues Patrik Berglund Vasteras 190 42 53 95 10 48
26 Calgary Flames Leland Irving Everett (WHL)
27 Dallas Stars Ivan Vishnevskiy Rouyn Noranda (QMJHL) 5 0 2 2 -1 2
28 Ottawa Senators Nick Foligno Sudbury (OHL) 232 39 44 83 -17 154
29 Phoenix Coyotes Chris Summers U.S. National U-18 (USDP)
30 New Jersey Devils Matthew Corrente Saginaw (OHL) 34 0 6 6 -5 68

 

2007:

20 Pittsburgh Penguins Angelo Esposito Quebec (QMJHL)
21 Edmonton Oilers Riley Nash Salmon Arm (BCHL)
22 Montreal Canadiens Max Pacioretty Sioux City (USHL) 100 9 23 32 -12 66
23 Nashville Predators Jonathon Blum Vancouver (WHL)
24 Calgary Flames Mikael Backlund Vasteras 60 5 14 19 8 16
25 Vancouver Canucks Patrick White Tri-City (USHL)
26 St. Louis Blues David Perron Lewiston (QMJHL) 235 53 78 131 26 160
27 Detroit Red Wings Brendan Smith St. Michaels
28 San Jose Sharks Nicholas Petrecki Omaha Jr. A (USHL)
29 Ottawa Senators Jim O'Brien U. of Minnesota (WCHA)
30 Phoenix Coyotes Nick Ross Regina (WHL)

 

It's much too early to judge players from the following drafts, but I have included them for completeness, and bolded the names who have appeared in the NHL.

2008:

20 New York Rangers Michael Del Zotto Oshawa (OHL) 115 11 35 46 -21 46
21 Washington Capitals Anton Gustafsson Vastra Frolunda Jr. ( )
22 Edmonton Oilers Jordan Eberle Regina (WHL)
23 Minnesota Wild Tyler Cuma Ottawa (OHL)
24 New Jersey Devils Mattias Tedenby HV 71 Jonkoping ( )
25 Calgary Flames Greg Nemisz Windsor (OHL)
26 Buffalo Sabres Tyler Ennis Medicine Hat (WHL) 53 12 16 28 -4 22
27 Washington Capitals John Carlson Indiana (USHL) 67 5 19 24 24 46
28 Phoenix Coyotes Viktor Tikhonov Cherepovets (Russia) 61 8 8 16 -3 20
29 Atlanta Thrashers Daultan Leveille St. Catharines (GHL)
30 Detroit Red Wings Thomas McCollum Guelph (OHL)

 

 

2009:

20 New Jersey Devils Jacob Josefson Djurgarden
21 Columbus Blue Jackets John Moore Chicago (USHL)
22 Vancouver Canucks Jordan Schroeder U. of Minnesota (WCHA)
23 Calgary Flames Tim Erixon Skelleftea (Sweden)
24 Washington Capitals Marcus Johansson Farjestad ( )
25 Boston Bruins Jordan Caron Rimouski (QMJHL)
26 Anaheim Ducks Kyle Palmieri U.S. National U-18 (USDP)
27 Carolina Hurricanes Philippe Paradis Shawinigan (QMJHL)
28 Chicago Blackhawks Dylan Olsen Camrose (AJHL)
29 Tampa Bay Lightning Carter Ashton Lethbridge (WHL)
30 Pittsburgh Penguins Simon Despres Saint John (QMJHL)

 

2010:

20 Pittsburgh Penguins Beau Bennett Penticton (BCHL)
21 Detroit Red Wings Riley Sheahan U of Notre Dame (CCHA)
22 Montreal Canadiens Jarred Tinordi USA U-18 (USHL)
23 Buffalo Sabres Mark Pysyk Edmonton (WHL)
24 Chicago Blackhawks Kevin Hayes Nobles (High-MA)
25 Florida Panthers Quinton Howden Moose Jaw (WHL)
26 Washington Capitals Evgeny Kuznetsov Chelyabinsk (Russia)
27 Phoenix Coyotes Mark Visentin Niagara (OHL)
28 San Jose Sharks Charlie Coyle South Shore (EJHL)
29 Anaheim Ducks Emerson Etem Medicine Hat (WHL)
30 New York Islanders Brock Nelson Warroad (High-MN)

 

In total, from the years 2001-2007, 77 players were drafted between 20-30.  Less than half (36) have had at least some type of NHL success.  8 of those can be considered "top" players.

Back to the Caps.  In the same 2001-2007 span, the Caps have had 3 out of 4 players succeed in the NHL.  Even of the more recent picks, the ones since 2008, the Caps have had 2 out of 4 players make the NHL, and 1 of the other ones was only drafted seven months ago.  Green is arguably the best player drafted in this range over the past decade. Thus far, Carlson as the most success of any player drafted in 2008 in this range, and the same is true for Johansson, , although as of now, that's not saying much.  Overall, the Caps have had much more success with draft picks in this range than the rest of the NHL.  And as the Caps hope to be picking in this range every year, this will hopefully be one of the main keys to sustained success.

This also shows why the Caps are very reluctant to trade away these 1st round picks: they're more valuable to the Caps than to pretty much any other organization in the NHL.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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