These are all of the Capitals' picks in the 20-30 range from the past 10 drafts:
2001, 2002, 2003, 2007: no picks
2004: Schultz (27), Green (29)
2005: Finley (27)
2006: Varlamov (23)
2008: Gustafsson (21), Carlson (28)
2009: Johansson (24)
2010: Kuznetzonv (26)
Of these eight picks, five have made the NHL, with a sixth looking very likely in Kuznetzov. And all of those five have not just made the NHL, but are at minimum good NHL regulars, with Green already being a star and Carlson and Varlamov having star potential. Obviously, Finley and Gustafsson appear to be poor picks, but overall, 3/4 of these picks look to be successful.
Let's compare that to other teams' drafting in the 20-30 range.
I classified the players in the following manner:
- bolded and italicized: top player by my judgment
- bolded: NHL regular judge by games played in comparison with the amount of time since they were drafted. A skater had to have played more games than the years since drafted minus four (to account for the time it takes for players to reach the NHL) x 50, which is the minimum amount of games a regular NHL player would appear in per season. So that's 300 games minimum for players drafted in 2001, 250 for those drafted in 2002, 200 for those drafted in 2003, and so on until 50 for those drafted in 2006 and 0 for 2007. For goalies, I used the same formula except I multiplied it by 30. Obviously, games played would be a lousy measure of higher levels of performance, but it works for this purpose.
- italicized: players who do not meet the above criteria but are considered to be successful, are late bloomers, or to still have potential in some manner. Again, I used my judgment for this.
Note: the statistics next to the players name are not necessarily complete.
2001:
| 20 | San Jose Sharks | Marcel Goc | Schwenningen | 375 | 40 | 63 | 103 | -10 | 94 | ||||||
| 21 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Colby Armstrong | Red Deer | 387 | 84 | 106 | 190 | 29 | 336 | ||||||
| 22 | Buffalo Sabres | Jiri Novotny | Ceske Budejovice | 189 | 20 | 31 | 51 | -15 | 66 | ||||||
| 23 | Ottawa Senators | Tim Gleason | Windsor | 436 | 14 | 81 | 95 | -3 | 430 | ||||||
| 24 | Florida Panthers | Lukas Krajicek | Peterborough | 328 | 11 | 61 | 72 | -30 | 245 | ||||||
| 25 | Montreal Canadiens | Alexander Perezhogin | Avangard Omsk | 128 | 15 | 19 | 34 | 16 | 86 | ||||||
| 26 | Dallas Stars | Jason Bacashihua | Chicago (NAHL) | 38 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 7 | 17 | 4 | .897 | 3.19 |
| 27 | Philadelphia Flyers | Jeff Woywitka | Red Deer | 216 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 3 | 131 | ||||||
| 28 | New Jersey Devils | Adrian Foster | Saskatoon | ||||||||||||
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | Adam Munro | Erie | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | .887 | 3.30 |
| 30 | Los Angeles Kings | David Steckel | Ohio State | 273 | 22 | 33 | 55 | 2 | 106 |
|
2002:
| 20 | Buffalo Sabres | Daniel Paille | Guelph | 289 | 45 | 55 | 100 | 13 | 75 | ||||||
| 21 | Chicago Blackhawks | Anton Babchuk | Elektrostal | 212 | 29 | 53 | 82 | -1 | 92 | ||||||
| 22 | New York Islanders | Sean Bergenheim | Jokerit Helsinki | 289 | 48 | 50 | 98 | -21 | 229 | ||||||
| 23 | Phoenix Coyotes | Ben Eager | Oshawa | 289 | 30 | 32 | 62 | -8 | 698 | ||||||
| 24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Alex Steen | Vastra Frolunda | 425 | 95 | 133 | 228 | -4 | 176 | ||||||
| 25 | Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | Red Deer | 308 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 308 | 156 | 112 | 28 | .908 | 2.77 |
| 26 | Dallas Stars | Martin Vagner | Hull | ||||||||||||
| 27 | San Jose Sharks | Mike Morris | St. Sebastian's (High-MA) | ||||||||||||
| 28 | Colorado Avalanche | Jonas Johansson | HV 71 Jonkoping Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||||||
| 29 | Boston Bruins | Hannu Toivonen | HPK Hameenlinna | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 61 | 18 | 24 | 10 | .890 | 3.37 |
| 30 | Atlanta Thrashers | Jim Slater | Michigan State | 371 | 47 | 53 | 100 | 4 | 280 |
|
2003:
| 20 | Minnesota Wild | Brent Burns | Brampton | 415 | 50 | 113 | 163 | -18 | 274 | ||||||
| 21 | Boston Bruins | Mark Stuart | Colorado College | 278 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 32 | 284 | ||||||
| 22 | Edmonton Oilers | Marc Pouliot | Rimouski | 179 | 21 | 32 | 53 | -7 | 74 | ||||||
| 23 | Vancouver Canucks | Ryan Kesler | Ohio State | 446 | 114 | 143 | 257 | 26 | 419 | ||||||
| 24 | Philadelphia Flyers | Mike Richards | Kitchener | 416 | 124 | 198 | 322 | 39 | 376 | ||||||
| 25 | Florida Panthers | Anthony Stewart | Kingston | 151 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -2 | 67 | ||||||
| 26 | Los Angeles Kings | Brian Boyle | St. Sebastian's (High-MA) | 152 | 26 | 12 | 38 | -4 | 133 | ||||||
| 27 | Los Angeles Kings | Jeff Tambellini | U. of Michigan | 210 | 27 | 34 | 61 | -20 | 86 | ||||||
| 28 | Anaheim Ducks | Corey Perry | London | 414 | 140 | 178 | 318 | 40 | 513 | ||||||
| 29 | Ottawa Senators | Patrick Eaves | Boston College | 343 | 69 | 58 | 127 | 16 | 135 | ||||||
| 30 | St. Louis Blues | Shawn Belle | Tri City | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2004:
| 20 | New Jersey Devils | Travis Zajac | Salmon Arm | 369 | 83 | 145 | 228 | 39 | 119 | ||||||
| 21 | Colorado Avalanche | Wojtek Wolski | Brampton | 358 | 86 | 142 | 228 | 9 | 97 | ||||||
| 22 | San Jose Sharks | Lukas Kaspar | Chemopetrol Litvinov | 16 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 | ||||||
| 23 | Ottawa Senators | Andrej Meszaros | Dukla Trencin | 422 | 35 | 122 | 157 | 32 | 311 | ||||||
| 24 | Calgary Flames | Kris Chucko | Salmon Arm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||||||
| 25 | Edmonton Oilers | Rob Schremp | London | 79 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -10 | 20 | ||||||
| 26 | Vancouver Canucks | Cory Schneider | Andover (High-MA) | 23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 3 | .913 | 2.68 |
| 27 | Washington Capitals | Jeff Schultz | Calgary | 283 | 9 | 52 | 61 | 79 | 107 | ||||||
| 28 | Dallas Stars | Mark Fistric | Vancouver | 167 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 28 | 157 | ||||||
| 29 | Washington Capitals | Mike Green | Saskatoon | 355 | 79 | 162 | 241 | 58 | 282 | ||||||
| 30 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Andy Rogers | Calgary |
2005:
| 21 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Tuukka Rask | Ilves Tampere Jr. | 64 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 64 | 29 | 21 | 7 | .929 | 2.12 |
| 22 | Boston Bruins | Matt Lashoff | Kitchener | 63 | 1 | 14 | 15 | -16 | 53 | ||||||
| 23 | New Jersey Devils | Niclas Bergfors | Sodertalje | 125 | 31 | 39 | 70 | -13 | 14 | ||||||
| 24 | St. Louis Blues | T.J. Oshie | Warroad (High-MN) | 146 | 33 | 64 | 97 | 18 | 72 | ||||||
| 25 | Edmonton Oilers | Andrew Cogliano | St. Michael's Jr. B | 288 | 51 | 74 | 125 | -21 | 108 | ||||||
| 26 | Calgary Flames | Matt Pelech | Sarnia | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | ||||||
| 27 | Washington Capitals | Joe Finley | Sioux Falls | ||||||||||||
| 28 | Dallas Stars | Matt Niskanen | Virginia (High-MN) | 268 | 16 | 66 | 82 | -4 | 129 | ||||||
| 29 | Philadelphia Flyers | Steve Downie | Windsor | 169 | 34 | 47 | 81 | 13 | 436 | ||||||
| 30 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Vladimir Mihalik | Presov | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
2006:
| 20 | Montreal Canadiens | David Fischer | Apple Valley (High-MN) | ||||||||||||
| 21 | New York Rangers | Bobby Sanguinetti | Owen Sound (OHL) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | ||||||
| 22 | Philadelphia Flyers | Claude Giroux | Gatineau (QMJHL) | 170 | 42 | 70 | 112 | 4 | 55 | ||||||
| 23 | Washington Capitals | Semyon Varlamov | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 2 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 27 | 10 | 9 | .917 | 2.41 |
| 24 | Buffalo Sabres | Dennis Persson | Vasteras | ||||||||||||
| 25 | St. Louis Blues | Patrik Berglund | Vasteras | 190 | 42 | 53 | 95 | 10 | 48 | ||||||
| 26 | Calgary Flames | Leland Irving | Everett (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 27 | Dallas Stars | Ivan Vishnevskiy | Rouyn Noranda (QMJHL) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | ||||||
| 28 | Ottawa Senators | Nick Foligno | Sudbury (OHL) | 232 | 39 | 44 | 83 | -17 | 154 | ||||||
| 29 | Phoenix Coyotes | Chris Summers | U.S. National U-18 (USDP) | ||||||||||||
| 30 | New Jersey Devils | Matthew Corrente | Saginaw (OHL) | 34 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 68 |
2007:
| 20 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Angelo Esposito | Quebec (QMJHL) | ||||||||||||
| 21 | Edmonton Oilers | Riley Nash | Salmon Arm (BCHL) | ||||||||||||
| 22 | Montreal Canadiens | Max Pacioretty | Sioux City (USHL) | 100 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -12 | 66 | ||||||
| 23 | Nashville Predators | Jonathon Blum | Vancouver (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 24 | Calgary Flames | Mikael Backlund | Vasteras | 60 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 8 | 16 | ||||||
| 25 | Vancouver Canucks | Patrick White | Tri-City (USHL) | ||||||||||||
| 26 | St. Louis Blues | David Perron | Lewiston (QMJHL) | 235 | 53 | 78 | 131 | 26 | 160 | ||||||
| 27 | Detroit Red Wings | Brendan Smith | St. Michaels | ||||||||||||
| 28 | San Jose Sharks | Nicholas Petrecki | Omaha Jr. A (USHL) | ||||||||||||
| 29 | Ottawa Senators | Jim O'Brien | U. of Minnesota (WCHA) | ||||||||||||
| 30 | Phoenix Coyotes | Nick Ross | Regina (WHL) |
It's much too early to judge players from the following drafts, but I have included them for completeness, and bolded the names who have appeared in the NHL.
2008:
| 20 | New York Rangers | Michael Del Zotto | Oshawa (OHL) | 115 | 11 | 35 | 46 | -21 | 46 | ||||||
| 21 | Washington Capitals | Anton Gustafsson | Vastra Frolunda Jr. ( ) | ||||||||||||
| 22 | Edmonton Oilers | Jordan Eberle | Regina (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 23 | Minnesota Wild | Tyler Cuma | Ottawa (OHL) | ||||||||||||
| 24 | New Jersey Devils | Mattias Tedenby | HV 71 Jonkoping ( ) | ||||||||||||
| 25 | Calgary Flames | Greg Nemisz | Windsor (OHL) | ||||||||||||
| 26 | Buffalo Sabres | Tyler Ennis | Medicine Hat (WHL) | 53 | 12 | 16 | 28 | -4 | 22 | ||||||
| 27 | Washington Capitals | John Carlson | Indiana (USHL) | 67 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 24 | 46 | ||||||
| 28 | Phoenix Coyotes | Viktor Tikhonov | Cherepovets (Russia) | 61 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -3 | 20 | ||||||
| 29 | Atlanta Thrashers | Daultan Leveille | St. Catharines (GHL) | ||||||||||||
| 30 | Detroit Red Wings | Thomas McCollum | Guelph (OHL) |
2009:
| 20 | New Jersey Devils | Jacob Josefson | Djurgarden | ||||||||||||
| 21 | Columbus Blue Jackets | John Moore | Chicago (USHL) | ||||||||||||
| 22 | Vancouver Canucks | Jordan Schroeder | U. of Minnesota (WCHA) | ||||||||||||
| 23 | Calgary Flames | Tim Erixon | Skelleftea (Sweden) | ||||||||||||
| 24 | Washington Capitals | Marcus Johansson | Farjestad ( ) | ||||||||||||
| 25 | Boston Bruins | Jordan Caron | Rimouski (QMJHL) | ||||||||||||
| 26 | Anaheim Ducks | Kyle Palmieri | U.S. National U-18 (USDP) | ||||||||||||
| 27 | Carolina Hurricanes | Philippe Paradis | Shawinigan (QMJHL) | ||||||||||||
| 28 | Chicago Blackhawks | Dylan Olsen | Camrose (AJHL) | ||||||||||||
| 29 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Carter Ashton | Lethbridge (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 30 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Simon Despres | Saint John (QMJHL) |
2010:
| 20 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Beau Bennett | Penticton (BCHL) | ||||||||||||
| 21 | Detroit Red Wings | Riley Sheahan | U of Notre Dame (CCHA) | ||||||||||||
| 22 | Montreal Canadiens | Jarred Tinordi | USA U-18 (USHL) | ||||||||||||
| 23 | Buffalo Sabres | Mark Pysyk | Edmonton (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 24 | Chicago Blackhawks | Kevin Hayes | Nobles (High-MA) | ||||||||||||
| 25 | Florida Panthers | Quinton Howden | Moose Jaw (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 26 | Washington Capitals | Evgeny Kuznetsov | Chelyabinsk (Russia) | ||||||||||||
| 27 | Phoenix Coyotes | Mark Visentin | Niagara (OHL) | ||||||||||||
| 28 | San Jose Sharks | Charlie Coyle | South Shore (EJHL) | ||||||||||||
| 29 | Anaheim Ducks | Emerson Etem | Medicine Hat (WHL) | ||||||||||||
| 30 | New York Islanders | Brock Nelson | Warroad (High-MN) |
In total, from the years 2001-2007, 77 players were drafted between 20-30. Less than half (36) have had at least some type of NHL success. 8 of those can be considered "top" players.
Back to the Caps. In the same 2001-2007 span, the Caps have had 3 out of 4 players succeed in the NHL. Even of the more recent picks, the ones since 2008, the Caps have had 2 out of 4 players make the NHL, and 1 of the other ones was only drafted seven months ago. Green is arguably the best player drafted in this range over the past decade. Thus far, Carlson as the most success of any player drafted in 2008 in this range, and the same is true for Johansson, , although as of now, that's not saying much. Overall, the Caps have had much more success with draft picks in this range than the rest of the NHL. And as the Caps hope to be picking in this range every year, this will hopefully be one of the main keys to sustained success.
This also shows why the Caps are very reluctant to trade away these 1st round picks: they're more valuable to the Caps than to pretty much any other organization in the NHL.


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