I posted this at BtN, I'll cross post it here. I just wanted to check out the claim that Neuvirth looked like a below average goalie. I used a program written previously to toss 522 binomial coins with a .921 probability of success (the number of ES shots that Neuvy has faced and the given NHL-average ES Sv%) I came out with 2328 of those 10000, or a 23.28% chance that an NHL average goalie would produce a .912 Sv% or lower on 522 shots. I read that as it's somewhere between three and four times more likely that Neuvirth is below average at this point in his development than that he's average or better. No matter what Caps' fans (myself included) might think about extenuating circumstances, the safe money looks like a bet that Neuvy doesn't provide league-average goaltending. If anyone is interested in seeing the J code, I'll link it and the console commands I used to execute it. Edit:.912 Sv% or lower, added to the original post in italics.
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