The Noon Number

22 - Games this season in which Caps goalies have had a save percentage above the year-to-date League-wide average of .912

over 1 year ago J.P. 37 comments 0 recs |

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And look! I’ve even made a neat-o chart just for this Nooner:

Bottom line: the trend is upwards (thanks, Varly), and the team has been brought down at times by a not-ready-for-the-NHL Holtby and a likely over-worked Neuvy (November was a rough month), but with 22 “above average” and 20 “below average” games, it’s hard to argue that the team hasn’t gotten pretty average goaltending on the whole this season. Of course, they have rarely gotten average goaltending in any given game, but that’s neither here nor there.

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 12:06 PM EST reply actions 5 recs

This chart really helps me understand this number a lot better! Thanks!

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by Bonzai!!! on Jan 11, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

I’m a huge fan of the Caps’ goaltending, but I think the argument is that the Caps EV goaltending has been just below average, and while the PK goaltending numbers are fantastic, this is basically just luck. It’s clear that it’s the PKSV% which is driving up the Caps overall SV%, whether or not you think PKSV% is ability based, that’s a different issue.

by imbroglioh on Jan 11, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Right. This is just the overall picture – overall, the Caps have gotten pretty average goaltending. If you want to discount the PK portion of that as being unsustainable/lucky/whatever, it’s not a leap at all to get to “below average goaltending” overall, no?

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Correct. I tend to believe that the idea that pksv% is not sustainable or whatever is distinct from the idea that pksv% is also, in part, ability based. I haven’t fully worked this out, but it can’t be that Hasek didn’t have a higher pksv% over his career than a goalie like Irbe or even Brodeur. Similarly, I would expect Varlamov to have a higher than ave pksv% over his career.

by imbroglioh on Jan 11, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

This is a legitimately above average chart.

by CVDTerp on Jan 11, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Made me remember how awful much of November was. Over the first 11 games of the month (which is more than 1/4 of the season to date and doesn’t include any of The Streak), the team had an average save percentage of .876. (Mind you, that’s not the actual SV% over that span, since SOGAs varied, but is an average of the 11 individual SV%s.) Yikes.

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

good stuff JP

and the trending upwards, I suppose, is the important concept as the playoffs get closer and closer. An intertesting look at the data would be a 5 and/or 10 game moving SV% average line to see the rolling trends and not just the season overall. These lines would be effected more by outlier values but would give you a better picture of how hot (or not) the goalies are over smaller increments of time. I wish I had the motivation to run the numbers.

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by Lunatic Fringe on Jan 11, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

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Here’s the rolling 5-game averages (with the first four games being the to-date averages):

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

fantastical!!

Forget about finding your perfect match, I want a website where you can find your perfect arch-nemesis

by Lunatic Fringe on Jan 11, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

I have a theory about the 8 game slide…

(not that they were scoring that many, either…)

Wearing the weagle is a way a’ life

by Gould Old Days on Jan 11, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Do elaborate.

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, just a snarky comment about the nosedive on the chart. But that nosedive probably is replicated in every aspect of the team’s play during that time period.

Wearing the weagle is a way a’ life

by Gould Old Days on Jan 11, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

you are probably right but the nosedive of 10 percentage points is extraordinary.

Forget about finding your perfect match, I want a website where you can find your perfect arch-nemesis

by Lunatic Fringe on Jan 12, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks Varly, Neuvy and the defense. The Capitals look like they can hold onto a 1 goal lead nowadays.

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by sydtron on Jan 11, 2011 12:10 PM EST reply actions

Funny you posted this: I just did a quick back of the envelope calculation on shooting percentage. I’m sure some Rinker has done this recently but to satisfy my curiosity, I looked at Caps with over 50 shots on goal this year and compared shooting % this year vs last year. As you know, it blows. If each player i analyzed was shooting at their historical NHL career %, the Caps would have about 25 more goals, good for 2nd, I believe, behind Detroit, AND I daresay, close to the NHL lead in points.

by S h a g g y on Jan 11, 2011 12:12 PM EST reply actions

Interesting. Good idea – I might have to rip it off.

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

Rip away, my good man.

I should have extended the logical discussion that if the Caps are scoring so many fewer goals with average goaltending, then yes, winning closely contested games is critical. I guess this is heartening news, despite the team’s scoring “woes”.

by S h a g g y on Jan 11, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

I think there was a post on Puck Daddy that followed this thread of thinking. If I can find it I’ll throw the link up. It may have been the AO post from a few days ago.

by ThreePingPost on Jan 11, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

I sort of scratched my head at the BTN analysis yesterday. Maybe the stats aren’t quite there according to BTN, but I think the Caps have been pretty good in that department to date this season. At least good enough to give the boys a winning chance most nights…

by ThreePingPost on Jan 11, 2011 12:14 PM EST reply actions

Problem with BtN is they’re playing horseshoes with statistics to make broad generalizations. And when 2+2 doesn’t equal 4 claim luck is a factor. In 5 or 10 game segments I’d buy that. After 40 games and a terrible losing streak I don’t buy luck as a legit reason for even one second

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Jan 11, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

What is “luck” to one is merely “random” to another. There are a lot of “random” events (or perhaps more precisely, events subject to “chaos” rules, like the mix and angles of legs and sticks between a shooter and the net that cannot be predicted, do not occur predictably, and that have a large effect on the outcome — the direction of the shot).

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by ThePeerless on Jan 11, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

Luck, randomness, chaos, whatever you want to call it is certainly a factor in hockey. But BTN tends to treat anything that is not measurable as random, which I think is what breaklance is getting at (correct me if I am wrong, breaklance). Unquantifiable =/= random.

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by Killer_Carlson on Jan 11, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

And unquantified =/= unquantifiable. We’re measuring all kinds of things that we didn’t used to. I don’t think we’ve yet figured out everything that can be observed about this sport.

Wearing the weagle is a way a’ life

by Gould Old Days on Jan 11, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

For sure. Try telling that to Hawerchuk though.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Jan 11, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed, although one thing to realize is people have just put every team league average in some respect, run a few thousand simulations, and came up with distributions that are actually bigger than the actual distribution. I’m not sure that if you get on the good side of that it can’t be called a huge chunk o’ luck.

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by red army line on Jan 11, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Wow some better looking arguments present that indicate more than just two lines of stats…amazing

And in shorter space…. JP are you some kind of statistic wizard or did you just spend more than 5 minutes to write this!.

Caps goalies and defense are doing quite well and in their rightful place in the standings

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Jan 11, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions

i'm gonna pull out some statistics skills here...

ok, so 22 games is about half the schedule so far.

The caps have had half the season above the league-average save percentage. That means the rest have to basically be below.

This situation of half above the average, half below the average, is not that remarkable. In fact, it indicates a very average distribution. Had the caps had 3/4 of their games above the league save percentage, now THAT would be impressive.

Yes, 22 is more than half of the season, but not by a very statistically significant amount. Sure, the caps may have had some games basically exactly at the league save percentage. But this statistic of half the season above the league save percentage doesn’t really tell us that much impressive.

Now, that doesn’t present the whole picture of the caps goaltending capabilities (for example, i don’t know off the top of my head how far below the league average most of the games were), but sorry, JP, i don’t think this tells the story you want it to (and I want it to).

by j762 on Jan 11, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions

i will mention that I think the Caps have excellent goal tending, and that it is likely that those who assert otherwise (yes, i saw that link on the list today) is likely not a regular caps game viewer.

Especially in the past weeks, caps goaltenders have had good games almost every night.

by j762 on Jan 11, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

ARE not likely…

oops, grammar fail

by j762 on Jan 11, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

But there’s not a ton to back up your “think[ing] that the Caps have excellent goaltending.”

Yes, Varly has been fantastic lately. Yes, Neuvy was in October. But to just look at those stretches without looking at the bigger picture isn’t really terribly useful (and the bigger picture with such young goalies/small samples might not be all that useful either).

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

ok, then i’ll say this.

soft goals are aberrations (minus more than our fair share during the streak), the goaltenders make the saves they are expected to, and is very common for them to make saves they are not expected to.

i’ll admit, i’m a relatively new hockey fan, so i don’t know how that compares to most other goalies, but it seems pretty good to me.

by j762 on Jan 11, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

Big picture doesn’t matter only streches of 16 to 24 games matter. And in those stretches varly’s S% has been spot on for a losing post season goalie

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Jan 11, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Forgot my go flyers mid way through that comment

Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."

Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.

by breaklance on Jan 11, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I didn’t want it to tell any story, but if you want the story that it told me, read the first comment above.

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by J.P. on Jan 11, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

good point, how silly of me not to have read that.

by j762 on Jan 11, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll admit that I didn’t stare too long at any graphs in this thread, but in general I’d bet that decent teams and/or goalies have a similar number thing going on. It would seem that when goalies have standout bad games, that stand out from their average by a lot, these games re VERY bad. The best games, however, are obviously, at most, a 1.000 sp. That 1.000 is far las capable of raising the average by as much as the stinkers can lower it. Therefore, goalies are much more likely to have more games over their own average than below it.

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by Unleash The Hockey on Jan 11, 2011 6:34 PM EST reply actions