Question of the Day
We've talked about potential breakout seasons - now let's take a look at the flip side. With so many Caps having career years last year, which Cap is the most likely to go the other way? In other words...who is ripe for a fall?
over 1 year ago
Becca H
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David Steckel hits rock bottom, starts digging.
Why wouldn't you play Perreault? He's a really talented young player.
Couldn’t agree with you more Jordan… Love it!
by bob.haildc.com on Sep 4, 2010 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
....
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
I could see Laich taking a small step back/make no steps at all, or maybe hitting 20 instead of 25 goals. Depends on his PP time and Goals.
by jblonz on Sep 3, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I second that. He started off the season playing like a first liner.
I think he’s gotta prove himself consistent and he might be on a first line permanently one day
Then again, the entire second line got off to a good start. (Of course, they tailed off sooner than the first line.) But we started off this past season with the top two lines being uber hot and no productivity, goal wise, from anyone else. Not the third line. Not the 4th line. Not any of the defensemen.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I agree with this. I think Fehr is going to take Laich’s spot at ES.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
What about Boudreau’s parceling out of ice time over the last three years gives you any confidence in this belief?
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Nothing. It might be easier to see that Laich is not a good 2W, though, when he can’t be covered for by a good 2C (in addition to Semin).
by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
duh, Nick Backstrom. 100% ripe for the fall!
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
I think Backstrom may see his points increase, but a fall in goal-scoring wouldn’t surprise me.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I think his goals will drop because teams will be watching him more. He was open for shots quite a bit last season because of the focus on Ovechkin, but I think he’ll get a bit more attention. That will give him the chance for assists though, so I think his points will end up increasing.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I’m going to go out on a limb and see how many people I can annoy. Carlson. While he was pretty darned good in his time up here this year, he hasn’t played a full 82 NHL games yet, and with so many blueliners gone there will be a lot more load on him this year. Plus, it doesn’t get much better than last year for him, and he’s coming off a short summer.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
I’m trying to be very cautiously optimistic exactly for that reason. At some point his insanely rapid development is going to slow down.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
mike green…although it may be good for him. he gives me the felling that he needs to take two steps back so he can take three steps forward. My thinking is that his goal totals are down, his power play time and ice time get cut, he sulks a little and his defensive numbers suffer, then he eventually (maybe February) gets it, digs in and improves on both ends, an flourishs leading the first PP unit, of which there is actually one.
The end result is that his numbers are down for the year, but he is more poised for a playoff run
Schultzy. Coming off the mono train.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
This is a good point. Mono is ROUGH.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
That, and the +50 was a pretty remarkable number which was, mostly, due to the team scoring like crazy last season.
This is the most likely, I think. Schultz probably had the potentially flukiest season, stat wise. But the fact that I also thought Carlson, Green, and Alzner didn’t do much good for my blood pressure.
I think Fehr and/or Flash could also score a lot fewer goals this time out if things go south.
I think, sadly, this may be the winner…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 3, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. His extra work this summer will pay off handsomely. Neuvy will have the earlier stumble, as he will take longer to get back in the North American groove.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
I, obviously, don’t want it to happen, but Varly’s injury prone. I hope he’s really truly prepared for the schedule.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
but Varly’s injury prone
I agree. But are we assuming he will re-injure himself this season? If so, would he then just be living up to expectations?
You gotta run to a window and say: "Hey, these floors are dirty as hell, and I'm not gonna take it anymore!"
Well, he’s also dealing with the expectations of being an actual #1, now, which he hasn’t before. So, relative to expectations, I think it rings true to the QotD.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. His extra work this summer will pay off handsomely.
You’ve gotta start reading these press releases with a bit more cynicism. Every player says they worked out harder this offesason/got some new diet/are even more focused/in the best shape of their life/ready to prove the critics wrong/win the starting job in training camp.
The fact that Varly is saying all the right cliches means next to nothing.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
In his defense, all the guys are saying the cliches, but Varly actually stepped up and got back to Virginia a month early.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
I’m not sure what being in Virginia means; he could train just as easily in Russia.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Better trainers here is the prevailing idea. Apparently he thought so, because that was a reason he gave for coming back early.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
This time last summer he was still rollerblading with his girlfriend. This year he came in six weeks ahead of everyone else, got a new apartment where he’s not subjected to an endless parade of sirens, and his brand new pads already look a bit scuffed up.
He seems to be taking the steps that a serious competitor should be taking.
Which makes me hopeful.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Mike Green. He impresses me as a good kid who takes some things a little too close to heart about his play. This drumbeat of “Green doesn’t play defense” could mess up his game at both ends of the rink if he starts thinking, “I gotta be Rod Langway.”
If you've read this far...seek help.
I think it already did.. hopefully it won’t continue to.
Why wouldn't you play Perreault? He's a really talented young player.
by jordanDC on Sep 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, his heart’s int he right place, but his head isn’t. He needs a good sports pshrink. He could be great (greater than he already is) if someone, anyone, could somehow get through to him that he needs to stop trying to please everyone.
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Mike Knuble. He’s 38, first of all. Second, if he goes into a slump or gets injured and gets bumped down a line, there are players below him who will have the chance to step up and provide some extra scoring.
John Carlson. He was pretty good during the playoffs, but he finds that the grind of an 82-game NHL season is a little too much for him. His shorter off-season results in him being one or two steps slower. Also, we all take off the rookie glasses and start criticizing him for the occasional rookie lapses.
Tomas Fleischmann. He posts 40 points next season because he’s not getting it done as a center and finds himself playing third-line wing with a rookie center and no powerplay time. Oh, and his shooting percentage drops back down to 12% or so.
Michael Nylander. He finds himself riding the pine in Hershey because he can’t find a place in Europe or the AHL and the Caps don’t want him taking away playing time from their prospects.
and once grandpa falls, he won't be able to get back up
"Tikkanen's miss was not as dramatic as the penalty shot Joe Juneau missed in Washington's quadruple-overtime playoff loss to Pittsburgh two years [previous]." - Washington Post game recap 6/12/98
Tom Poti. Age and a bad injury that could leave him tentative. It scares the crap out of me, because he’s all the experience the team has on D.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
Eye-srea injuries to both him and Laich because of lack of visor. Hopefully the rest of the team took note.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Schultz. The mono thing scares me. I hoped he would have bulked up this off-season and it clearly didn’t work out that way. Hopefully he didn’t lose to much but coming off mono and a +50 I can see it being a rough year for him.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
What constitutes a fall for him, though? No one expects +50 again, but what’s reasonable, absent any effect from mono; +30?
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
As long as he hits someone and pushes some bodies around I couldn’t care less what his +/- is.
The guy is Peter Schumpmaker. Lord knows what a schump is, but you can bet your bippy his ancestors made them. What he's doing is far worse than crafting fine schumps.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Sep 3, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Very fair question, and tough. I am not a guy that judges Schultz by +/-. Some of the other numbers, like GA/60 and the differentials have more value. I guess I just expected Schultz to take a big step forward this year and it may not happen now. His lack of improvement will lead the Schultz haters to say last year was a fluke, etc. I could see him being a half-beat slower just because of the lack of work in the summer, and he doesn’t have that half-step to give up.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Those are good points. Do you think the team knew about the mono while they were negotiating his contract, and would it even make a difference?
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
I don’t think it would have made a difference, to be honest. Especially considering they negotiated a UFA year. They know Schultz is good and developing; even if he doesn’t take the huge leap we wanted this season he’s still very valuable. Keeping him was a good decision because his main value to this team was never going to be his 2010-11 play.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Oh, I wasn’t thinking in terms of not keeping him, it was just one of those weird ideas that they might want to discount the first year because of it.
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
I doubt his agent would allow that to happen. His RFA years are already being discounted and as long as Schultz had time to recover from the mono he should still be capable this year. The mono is more likely to hinder him from taking a big step forward than it is to really take his game back all that much. I think Schultz’s step back will be reputational more than actual on ice performance.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Gotta go with Steckel. If all he brings is his ability to win face offs then he may see himself as a scratch most nights.
A lot of the names mentioned, I can see having slight decreases in production. When I think “ripe for a fall”, I think major production decline.
The name that comes to mind, for me, is Flash. Things to consider:
One— Flash shot an unreasonably high 19.0% last year, and isn’t somebody we think of as a net presence. Can’t realistically expect that again.
Two— He is no longer a value. He’s been paid. I have to view him no longer in the prism of a guy making $800k, but making over $2M. That’s not to say his production has to more than double – obviously. It does amplify the cost-benefit analysis against him, though.
Three— His production last year was not exclusively from the center position, an experiment in which he seemed to struggle mightily at, at times. This year, it’s looking more and more like he will be at the center slot again. Will a higher percentage of his time be spent there, and if so, does that impact him negatively?
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by winterion on Sep 3, 2010 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 6 recs
Great comment. It’s easy to dismiss Flash because a lot of us hate him, but these are valid logical points that do suggest that he may see a decline from last year.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Thanks! I tried to keep it level-headed, because honestly, as long as the guy’s still a Washington Capital, I do want him to succeed.
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
I was going to write something, but why bother when you beat me to the punch with all the things I was going to say.
Flash’s 19% shooting percentage is, in my mind, the single largest candidate for regression on the team, followed closely by Fehr’s 14.5%.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
My only counter-argument to Flash would be wondering if Flash can actually take a fall? Sure, his regular season was solid, but he fell so far in the playoffs, I’m not sure he’s starting from anywhere but rock bottom.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
He fell all the way into a 2.6 million dollar contract.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Sep 3, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ll agree that Flash is ripe for a fall, and I’ll agree that he struggled at center, but his offense was not the area where he struggled. He put up 5 goals, 14 assists, and 19 points in 21 games during the period he was playing at center (Jan 5 through the Olympic break), with 13 of those points coming at even strength.
Schultz’s +/- and Semin’s goals will go down signifcantly. Same with Laich’s assists and Knuble’s goals. Ovi will go back to normal and score more goals than assists. It’ll be tough to win the presidents trophy again that’s for sure.
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Sep 3, 2010 7:05 PM EDT reply actions
Maybe Schultz’s Plus/Minus will take a big hit between his mono and the fact the team scored so much last year.
I expect Semin to have a similar total of goals this year. 40 goals was not far out of whack with his typical productivity given that he missed less time with injury. Don’t expect a serious regression for Sasha in goals unless there is an injury that causes him to miss a lot of time.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Hate to say it but...
…a couple of Japers’ Rink favorites are due for a fall in 2010-11:
Schultz: His +50 will be tough to repeat, and having mono during the off season is not going to help.
Bradley: Had a career high in goals in 2009-10, when he hit for double figures for the first time. I can’t see him doing that again… that was beyond every expectation I would have had for him in a season.
Fleischmann is also someone who might be due for a fall, his shooting percentage last year was astonishingly high…I’m pretty sure he won’t keep that up. Knuble isn’t getting any younger, either. Poti is coming off a serious injury…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
Right now Ovie = The Tracy McGrady of hockey….. Another early exit you have to rip the “C” off his chest and give it to Back. That’s what I would do, but hey I’m just some guy making drunk comments on JapersRink
by bob.haildc.com on Sep 4, 2010 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s been the captain for less than 1 season, and he was the best player for the Caps in that playoff series – and you want to take the captaincy already? That makes no sense.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
by timmyv38 on Sep 4, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ovi’s already had his fall with this past season. Despite his getting the C, leading the team through the streak and to the Presidents’ trophy, winning the Lindsay, and still maintaining high quality play, the laundry list of failures, disappointments, and missed opportunities is much longer.
"I’m very happy to hear the news," Ovechkin said when he heard about Backstrom's longterm contract--"because he’s one of the top centers in the world, one of my best friends and we want to play together for a long time. He’s a guy who wants to stay in one place and be comfortable and win, just like me. We talk all the time about playing together, and we talked after the playoffs about how we can win in Washington."
by capsyoungguns on Sep 5, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Schultz, simply due to the incredible year he had. He’ll still be solid, just not as good.
Laich won’t score as much as he did last season, unless he starts going to the front of the net consistently.
Flash won’t hold up under the pressure of being 2C.
Bradley won’t repeat his 10 goal performance, but I expect him to be as good otherwise.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Your opinion of Schultz seems spot on. He’ll have a solid year but probably will be off to a slow start due to any lingering health issues from mono.
Laich will come close to last year’s total.
Rocking the Red since 1975
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