What do you do with Alex Semin armchair GMGM's?

I don’t see a market for Semin. Opposing teams will still view him as a flight risk — sure, he’s comfortable in DC but also with a bunch of his Russian buddies, but what happens if he plops down in, say, St. Louis, with 0 Russians and possibly only 1-2 European players? Not a knock on Semin, anyone would be a lot less comfortable in a different situation. Washington has to be the ideal NHL market for him.

Throw in salary demands, which could be long-term $7-8-9 million a year that he seems in line to ask for and that eliminates potential suitors who already have cap room tied up, or would need to save it for their own young players

Who’s left?
-Colorado only has $26 million committed for 2011-12, but they seem to have a low payroll these days and don’t seem likely to add a big-ticket player, though I could be wrong.
-LA only has $32 million committed, but they have to re-sign Doughty, Johnson and Simmonds so that’s not an option…If they couldn’t swing Kovalchuk, doubt they’d pull of something for Semin.
-STL could have the space, but they have to deal with Backes, Oshie, Berglund next summer which probably eats up most their budget, and again, would Semin want to stay there?

Other than that, I can’t think of any team with a lot of cap space that would make sense for a realistic run at Semin. Even if the Caps wanted to move him, I think it’d be really tough to find a destination, given his circumstances and the risk & cost vs. the reward of acquiring him from the other side.

But why? The Caps got their value for drafting Semin — they’ve had him in the organization since then, and he couldn’t leave. Next summer, he can. Why should the Caps get anything because he finally got the chance to choose where he plays?

It’s questions like this that make me wish hockey had a rule like baseball where if a team loses a "Type A" free agent it gets a couple of high draft picks in return.

Totally agree.

And last year’s

BUT last year’s playoffs

And IF we traded him: For better draft picks.

We got pretty much everything we need. And with a system relying heavily on having the oh-so enviable problem of having TOO much talent in the minors to pick from, we should keep that farm system going:

In a full 82 games, totally healthy, he has the potential to be just as good as Kovalchuck.

The problem is, he’ll likely never play a full 82 games. The most he’s ever played is 77 – at this point it’s becoming clear that, if you’re lucky, you might get 75 games out of Sasha. A moment’s glance at Ovechkin, Kovalchuk and Semin tells you all you need to know – Ovie and Kovy are built like T-34 tanks, whereas Sasha is built like a Lada.

On the right team, with more minuntes than he has now, Semin could EASILY score 50 goals and break 100 points. his points her game the last 2-3 years has been in the top of the league.

Given what I’ve said above, more minutes for Sasha likely means more injuries. Over the last few seasons, he’s had the luxury of playing for a team where the opposition had to focus on someone else. If he moved to another team where he was the #1 scorer, he’d instantly become the #1 target. This would likely both increase the probability of injury and decrease his scoring rate. Also, his high scoring rate per game is, in part, inflated by the number of games he misses. I’m not going to call Sasha a malingerer, but I get the feeling that the doesn’t play through injuries that other people on the team might choose to play through. I actually think that’s smart, both for him and the team, but it would have the tendency to inflate his rate stats against players who are out there at less than 100%.

Prone to injury, but I don’ think he’s a glass man. I think it’s just the style he plays and I think over time, he’ll protect himself better.

The style he plays??? Have you been mixing up players’ numbers? Sasha plays a perimeter game and, while he’s not a Mike Ribeiro-level candyass, he certainly doesn’t go out looking for physical contact. He doesn’t block shots, or do anything else that would inordinately expose himself to injury. The guy’s just a little fragile.

Beyond the fact that he’s bound to miss about 10 games a year, Semin’s big issue is that you never know whether good or bad Sasha is going to show up, and if bad Sasha shows up, he’s a liability.

I agree that it is going to boil down to Semin vs Green. It is a tough decision from GMGM’s point of view to have to choose between the two.

I disagree. Look at the salary structure of the Blackhawks. They’ve got Toews and Kane both making 6.3, Hossa making 5.275, Campbell making 7.14, and Keith making 5.54. That’s $30.56 in cap room tied up in five players.

Now try that with the Caps: Ovie at 9.54, Backstrom at 6.7, Semin at 6, Green at 5.25 and Poti at 2.88. That adds up to 30.37.

The two teams are literally identical in their top-five – the only major difference is that the Caps drop off rather precipitously after four players, whereas the Blackhawks have Sharp at $3.9, Bolland at 3.375, Seabrook at 3.5 (and an RFA), and Hjalmarsson at 3.5.

The Blackhawks had to dismantle their team in part because they screwed up the qualifying offers for several players two years ago, and because they had a large number of secondary and tertiary players (Byfuglien, Bolland, Sharp, Versteeg, Eager, Ladd, Huet) making too much money. When Toews and Kane were on ELCs, that was affordable. When they started their extensions, it wasn’t.

The Caps’ choice is not binary between Green and Semin. If it were, the choice would be blatantly obvious and the team would have already shipped Semin out when he had more value.

The real choice is more complex, and it’s between having a top-heavy roster in terms of salary, vice having a more balanced roster. The Blackhawks got away with having a “balanced” roster last year because several of their top players were on ELCs (Toews, Kane, Niemi, Hjalmarsson). This allowed them to carry more money up and down the roster. The alternative to this, is to spend around half of the cap on the top-five, and fill in around that with young players and affordable veterans, which is the path that the Hawks are now taking and which the Caps will have to take.

From a Caps’ perspective then, keeping both Green and Semin is a possibility, but it may require jettisoning players like Laich or Flash and filling in with guys like Mackan, Kuznetsov and Galiev before they’re really ready, or it may require more “stop-gap” veteran signings like BMo, or what Pittsburgh just did in signing Comrie. Having a 7/8 defensive pairing making nearly $2m between them, a 4(b) center making over $1m, and a 4th line winger making $1m then become luxuries the team can’t afford.

Incredibly well reasoned analysis. I think you’re spot on. +1 Rec for you sir.

I’d say if they give him a long term deal to stick with a team that is going to be as Russian as borscht, he’ll play for less. Anywhere from 5.5m to 6m is pretty damn reasonable for his erratic output and gives you some wiggle room in the future.

Still, it all comes down to the 2nd line center. Sasha couldn’t perform against the Canadiens with no center helping him out. Without a serviceable pivot helping him, there is no point in re-signing him.

I have a feeling he will be back, long term (4-6) and with a reasonable contract ($5.8)

Oh, I think his agent sees his value well north of Kovy’s cap hit. I think it’s wishful thinking to use that as the benchmark. I think the club made several long term offers that were well below expectations. WELL below. Gaborik got $7.5 Million over 5 years and Vanek got $7.1 over 5 years as well – 2 players possessing skills similar to Sasha. Anything under $7 Million and under 5 years would be great, in my mind.

There is simply no way Semin can realistically expect to receive more money than Kovalchuk.

It depends on the team. Kovy has a lot of good players along side him with NJ.

Remember that salaries are also relative to the talent on their team. Koivu’s not workth 7 mil a year but because Minnesota sucks, he’s getting the big bucks because the owners are going to try to hit that Cap one way or another. If you stick Semin on a team with terrible players, he’d get at least 7, easy.

If Flash makes 3.3 and that’s the reason that we have to choose between Green and Semin, I’d just get rid of Flash.

To this, I would add Laich, Fehr, Gordo, Bradley, Chimera…

If Laich asks for $4m, Fehr’s next contract is $3.5, etc. etc., they’re all relatively easily replaced. Semin’s talent is very hard to find.

Only the Capitals will, anyone else is going to give him a 2 year tryout/teaser contract at best. Saying he has played over 70 games is a bit of a farce too — I’d say a 70 game player that has potential injury issues is someone like Zetterberg. Semin hasn’t scratched at 82 but Zetterberg has. Plus the KHL flight risk, true or not, will always play into it.

Nice piece in the Post today, but let me ask you this; if Fedorov wasn’t a legit 2C, what was he? Check out the BtN stats for his year; he was injured a lot, but he was a lot more effective than he got credit for when he was in the lineup.

This is very optimistic. Saving Semin, in reality, will make it impossible to retain other homegrown talent. Decisions have to be made, we can’t keep the whole gang together.

Since I haven’t seen anyone welcome you to the blog yet, allow me. Welcome! Good on you for coming equipped with an avatar, perhaps Baldie will show up bearing smoked-meat-flavored-vodka; dude knows how to party down.

I’m not sure the SOB line makes sense unless there’s a real option for a viable second line threat – if MarJo develops ahead of schedule (hitting near what I consider his probable career ceiling), plays effective second line minutes next season and Kuznetzsov is ready to play in the NHL (and out of his contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk), then I could see it. Or two years from now when AO and Semin aren’t quite so dominant and some of the kids are ready to step into more assertive roles (controlling the play better – we know some of them have some dandy skill). Until then, loading all the legitimate scoring threats onto one line makes it really easy to put out the best defenders and force the bottom nine forwards to beat the rest of your lineup; the Caps will still win some games that way, but I suspect forcing defenses to put lesser players out against Semin or Ovechkin generates more and better chances overall.

I dearly hope that part of Ted’s philosophy includes not throwing good money after bad; just because a resource is home-grown doesn’t mean that it’s worth retaining simply for its own sake. Loyalty to specific players that came through the system should be a means to an end, not an end in itself – the ultimate goal is winning a Stanley Cup.

The SOB line isn’t a good option unless a good 2nd line can be made, with a fair amount of scoring potential. I would expect Laich or Fehr to take the top spot opposite Ovie. Maybe in a couple years when Kuznetsov and Mackan are here, the SOB line could work – but not yet.

NHL11 has awesome GMs though. In one of my BAPs, the Capitals traded Backstrom and Pinizzotto for Pronger.

best argument I’ve read. rec’d