Ranking the Capitals: #24

It’s just back to the difference in our perspective. You’re still looking at it as win now so you want the guys that will contribute the most this year. I’m looking at players that might not be replaceable. There really arent’ any of those guys left, but a couple might have upside above the NHL players on the list. I understand that if Erskine goes down and we don’t replace him then we are in some trouble, but I think he’s so easy to replace that it’s not worth a vote. The Caps haven’t replaced him because they haven’t had to. We don’t know what GMGM has been doing (Is he really happy with how the roster looks and ready to go into the off-season? Is he trying to get Mottau or another depth D to take a cap friendly deal? Is he working on trading to bring in some help at D?) but I suspect he’s aware of the concerns we all have and that by the time the playoffs roll around we won’t have to be worried about Sloskine getting a sweater.

I know I know.

But when someone has a first shift ever in the NHL like the way Sloan had, it’s not hard to think that he CAN be a descent NHL calibur player if he just the right things (learns to focus, practicaes more, gains more wisdom).

Either that or that massive hit was just a fluke. Personally I think that shift showed what one hungry mofo that wants to prove himself can do so you know he’s capable. But at the same time,having someone SO inconsisten is a bad thing in itself.

I think if Perreault gets a full time Caps jersey this year, we can probably see better from Sloan.

And he could be successful as a grinder. Bourque is more of the pure-skill type.

In the time I’ve watched both players in Hershey, Bourque struck me as a player whose future was as a 3rd line “pest”-type player who could chip in 15G/20A a year – sort of a less-douchey Matt Cooke. His speed and willingness to be physical, in my mind, would allow him to play in either the top or bottom six rotation.

they’re less than 15 months apart — that ain’t two years.

Gordon: Dec 13, 1985
McNeill: Mar 17, 1987

I don’t know what sort of math you use, but that’s pretty damned close to two years in my book.

As a result, McNeill has actually played more games (listed on HockeyDB) than Gordon since the 2004-05 season. I just don’t see them as far apart in development at all.

This is actually a pretty good indictment of Gordon. If they’re as close developmentally as you claim, despite the two year age difference and McNeill playing the far tougher position, doesn’t that say something about their relative qualities as prospects?

Looking ahead to the players currently under contract for next season, it looks to me like Gordon is currently #2 on the RW depth chart.

Two problems with this analysis. 1) While the Caps won’t re-sign all of their UFAs, they’re likely to re-sign a couple, so the lack of guys under contract is a bit misleading, because Laich, Knuble, Flash and Semin all spend time at RW. 2) The Caps have been known to shift guys around between forward positions, particularly from LW to RW and vice-versa.

Looking at the defense next year, we’re losing both Erskine and Poti (barring extensions for either), and we’re already short on NHL-caliber defensemen. In my opinion (and that of other observers), McNeill is likely next in line.

In the final wash, it comes down to how you see the player and where you see them fitting in the organization. I think McNeill could well be a Brian Pothier-type defenseman who’s slightly better in his own end. I think he could fit in as a 5/6 who gets occasional power play time. Gordon, to me, looks like a Brian Willsie-type – he’s the kind of player who could be a regular NHL-er on a rebuilding team, but his long-term future is likely as an AHL star who gets occasional cups of coffee.

Age doesn’t equal development, necessarily.

While this is true, pretty much every analysis of player development uses age as the baseline, then works from there. Development paths are all unique to some degree, but age, and the physical and mental development that come with it, generally apply equally across the board. Holding all else equal, if I observe two hypothetical prospects with similar skills and statistics, I’m taking the younger one every time unless there is some obvious reason (such as injuries) for the developmental gap.