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Question of the Day

Which Capital do you think is poised for a breakout season? Why?

over 1 year ago At_kettler_tiny Becca H 72 comments 0 recs  | 

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Alzner

In a quiet, steady way. If he’s had an entire summer to build NHL level strength, he’s going to have a much better time of it when the big boys go to the corners with him. He should be much better at the end of the season than at the beginning and I think he will be.

I was going to say Fehr, but no one has really been moved that would allow F16 to get more PP time or even significantly more ES time. I’d love to see him at ~16 a game in total TOI, but I suspect he’ll hover around 14.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Main problem here is, which Caps haven’t had a breakout season? There are two who I think could.

First, Carlson. He showed last season that he has the talent, I think he is ready to have a big season. I think he’ll be given more responsibility, and it could pay off big time if he can handle it.

Second, Gordon. He’s not going to have an enormous impact, but if he can stay healthy (which I think will finally be the case), he can help the PK and 4th line. He is the better of the two 4th line centers in everything except possibly faceoffs, and I think he has a shot at taking over that role.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Sep 1, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed. he picked it up a bit in the post season and the passion seems to be there. Gotta love the tenacious Gordo and hope he breaks out a bit this year. Granted I’m not talking huge breakout but a little bump up on the 4th line would be nice.

by CONGERO113 on Sep 1, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

A breakout for Gordon would be either becoming the sole 4C or, best case scenario, being moved up to 3C. I think he can take the 4C position if he’s healthy. He is significantly more skilled than Steckel in every way that matters.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Sep 1, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it will be Gordo as well. If he totals anywhere near 15g and 20a it’ll be out of this world good. I’d be happy with 10/15 and 80%+ games played.

A danger to myself and others on the ice

by can't skate on Sep 1, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neuvirth, but not until the playoffs. No reason, really. Just my uninformed prediction.

by Ginga on Sep 1, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree, his skin is flawless but he’s so young.
I’d invest in clearasil stock

"Tikkanen's miss was not as dramatic as the penalty shot Joe Juneau missed in Washington's quadruple-overtime playoff loss to Pittsburgh two years [previous]." - Washington Post game recap 6/12/98

by Icebat on Sep 1, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha, well done.

by Ginga on Sep 1, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not like we have a coach who will permanently pull his starter in the playoffs for a kid at the first sign of trouble or anything.

Seriously though, I think Neuvirth is a good pick. Expectations are so high for Carlson and Alzner is so under-the-radar that I’m not sure there are any other great candidates.

by grapejoos on Sep 1, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chimera

A full season in BB’s system will allow him to take advantage of his speed and hopefully he will bury a few. I’m predicting a career high in points, especially if his center is someone like MP or Mackan.

"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov

by Scott in Shaw on Sep 1, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

i want to believe this but he is simply not a great finisher. hopefully he gets a bunch of ugly goals or at least creates opportunities with his speed and drive. i like the guy,

If you want to survive out here, you've got to know where your towel is.

by ns on Sep 1, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he is with Fehr and a decent center for the whole season, I could see better chances developing for him. Fehr in front of the net can make it really hard for the goalie.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Sep 1, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’d need a hand transplant. But there is room for him to improve in the taking it to the house dept, and that could result in more points if not goals

"Tikkanen's miss was not as dramatic as the penalty shot Joe Juneau missed in Washington's quadruple-overtime playoff loss to Pittsburgh two years [previous]." - Washington Post game recap 6/12/98

by Icebat on Sep 1, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alzner, Welcome to the NHL permanently.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Sep 1, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Part of me wants to say Carlson, but heck, our expectations seem so high for him that anything less than a breakout would be a disappointment.

I can’t really think of a forward that doesn’t fall into one of these categories
A) beyond the ‘breakout’ point in their career
B) won’t be in the position TOI-wise to breakout
C) just coming off a breakout year (Fehr comes to mind).

And for those reasons above, I settle on Alzner, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. He’s hit the back-burner with Carlson getting all the young defenseman attention, but I’ve been looking forward to him contributing far longer and having an even larger impact than Carlson.

by TFG on Sep 1, 2010 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Does Belanger count, even though he hasn’t been officially announced as signed? I could see him putting up 50+ points as the Caps’ second line center if he stays healthy.

I’m also going to add that I think Flash is primed to step up and prove something to us this year, at least in the last two months of the season. Don’t know if I’d call that a “breakout” season though.

by Wheeler on Sep 1, 2010 4:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Speaking of Belanger, considering the Caps were supposedly holding off on announcing his signing pending the announcement of a trade, and they still haven’t announced it, I’m wondering if the trade is with New Jersey. I’m thinking it may be the IK saga holding up the trade…

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Sep 1, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mike Wise just tweeted this. It has to be true.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Sep 1, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Except that he’s suspended now.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Sep 1, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whoosh.

"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."

by Bald Pollack on Sep 2, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Flash. Because he’s the only skill player that ain’t yet broke out.

(Also Alzner, for all the reasons listed above.)

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

by fat_daddyo on Sep 1, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Dave Steckel…

…wait, this isn’t the summer of ’09?

Real answer: John Carlson. I think he will mostly meet our expectations. He will probably struggle some, just like all rookies. But since his expectations are so high, and since I think he will come close to meeting them, I think that will qualify as a breakout season.

I know its been said that Fehr’s breakout season was last year. I would argue, however, that with increased ice time, and increased power play time, not to mention a full offseason of training (which with back and shoulder injuries he has not had recently), he will breakout more.

by BradleyFightingVehicle on Sep 1, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

One of the two goalies. Not sure which one is going to seize the opportunity, but either neuvy or varly will. Competition does that.

Everything sounds smarter in Tikkanesse....

by Bonzai!!! on Sep 1, 2010 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Matty Perrault!! OK, not really. But I can hope.

by cajuncook on Sep 1, 2010 4:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope he does. The only negative would be that I would be out ~$150 for my MP jersey purchase.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Sep 1, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tom Poti

/Read it as "Which Capital is poised for a breakout this season?

"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules

by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 1, 2010 4:59 PM EDT reply actions   2 recs

Definitely a legit way to read it.

by Becca H on Sep 1, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

So true… the guy is allergic to almost everything… I wonder how they were able to do the surgery on his eye…

Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 2, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mike Green. Because apparently he needs one to get some respect.

/snark.

"If you want money go to the bank, if you want bread go to the bakery if you want goals go to the net." - #21

by snakegriffin on Sep 1, 2010 5:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ll shock everybody and say Fehr. Here are the reasons why, he very talented guy, skilled, tall, smart and for first time he has had a full summer to train and get stronger. He is incorporating mixed martial arts into his training regimen and as a bjj student I will vouch for it’s benefits strength and endurance wise.

He also was given a vote of confidence with a two year deal, so he can just play. I believe that he will get a couple extra shifts a game and a few more chances on the PP and average 14toi.

I look for him to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points, 26g 24a +24.

4th Floor, is next, swimvare, undervare, Eric Fehr...

by JSchon on Sep 1, 2010 5:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I’d have said Fehr, but he seems entrenched on the third line and might not get a sniff of the pp. Hard to score more than he did without more ice time.

by Ginga on Sep 1, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there any reason to think that if Fehr plays well he wouldnt be given a crack at lots of 2nd PP time.

In my mind the top PP forwards on the team are (assumes ovi on point)

Front of the Net: 1) Knuble, 2) Laich 3) Fehr

Not Front of the net 1) Nick 2) Semin 3) Fehr, 4) Flash

This assumes MP and MJ are in Hershey, if they were up I would expect them to get some time on the PP.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Sep 1, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Fehr will get about the same 2PP time he got, simply because the 1PP is so dominant. Hopefully, BB will put them out more often though, to save Green and Ovie from the wear and tear.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Sep 1, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there any reason to think that if Fehr plays well he wouldnt be given a crack at lots of 2nd PP time.

Boudreau hasn’t rewarded good play by 16 with ice time before. Plus, I don’t know if there is much 2d PP time. Haven’t looked it up, but I seem to remember the 1st unit hogging the time.

by Ginga on Sep 1, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the second PP unit needs more time on the ice. No offense to Ovi and Green (who take such long shifts) but it seems there does reach a point during a shift when diminishing returns on productivity is noticeable.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Sep 1, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fehr and Ovechkin (if we get a good 2C)

I think Fehr is going to have a break-out season because he finally got to spend an entire summer with 2 working shoulders. He’ll come out of the blocks with great conditioning, more ice time (one hopes), and burly shoulders. His versatile style of play will help him situate easily on either the 2nd or 3rd line while BB tries out line combos for the right second line center.

If we get a good 2nd line center, either from Flash practicing the position all summer, Mackan ascending to NHL rank, or from another team, it will finally balance the offence and give BB tons of different lines to roll. Once BB gets these lines rolling, with all the offensive depth we have, teams will have to focus less on Ovechkin, and more on lines 2, 3, and hopefully, 4. Also, with the advent of Backstrom (and by advent, i mean everybody else seeing what we’ve always seen), teams will probably focus more on the duo then just on Ovie

It's The Wait for Red October. Except rather than Sean Connery, Alex Baldwin, and Sam Neill, it's George McPhee, Bruce Boudreau, and Alex Ovechkin.
Not Tom Clancy, but Gary Bettman. Not the Soviet Kremlin, but. . .well. . . .yeah, the Soviet Kremlin

by kingzman264 on Sep 1, 2010 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Semin. If he wants the big bucks, he’ll figure out a way to put a full season together.

by Toddra on Sep 1, 2010 5:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Semin is already regarded as one of the top players in the league and has already notched 40 goals. Even if he stayed healthy and put up 85-95 points I don’t think that would be considered a breakout season? Unless you think he has 105 points in him?

4th Floor, is next, swimvare, undervare, Eric Fehr...

by JSchon on Sep 1, 2010 5:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think a breakout season for me would be less PIMs, more points, and, overall, more consistency. Since we know the players’ usual MO, we would probably be able to tell when they are making leaps-and-bounds as far as contribution towards team success goes.

It's The Wait for Red October. Except rather than Sean Connery, Alex Baldwin, and Sam Neill, it's George McPhee, Bruce Boudreau, and Alex Ovechkin.
Not Tom Clancy, but Gary Bettman. Not the Soviet Kremlin, but. . .well. . . .yeah, the Soviet Kremlin

by kingzman264 on Sep 1, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

The question doesn’t say breakout regular season.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Sep 1, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I am going with King Karl.

I look forward to seeing a full season of Alzner on the blue line with well-deserved playing time. Carlson may be flashier, but I have always been a sucker for the reliable stay at home D-man have had as part of their blue line corps in the past (e.g Langway, Rouse, Tinordi etc)

A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory

by Rather Bengt on Sep 1, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

David Steckel

15 goals, 30 points

But I’m on medication…

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Sep 1, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions  

If you weren’t, it would be 30/45/75 and 80% FO.

"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules

by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 1, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Toss up between Steckel or Semin. Both are playing for contracts.

All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

by sydtron on Sep 1, 2010 5:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Steckel isn’t. And he won’t be next year, either.

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by J.P. on Sep 1, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

My mistake, thought he was gone next year. I’d still bet on him breaking out, contract year phenomenon and all.

All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

by sydtron on Sep 1, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Someone asked this question last summer and I said “Chris Clark”, so I guess I’m not too good at this.

Ima go ahead and say Alex Semin.

A Capital Wasteland - art & hockey from Washington, D.C.

by Jake Shapiro on Sep 1, 2010 6:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Looks like the Caps will have a legit 2C come the New Year!

The guy is Peter Schumpmaker. Lord knows what a schump is, but you can bet your bippy his ancestors made them. What he's doing is far worse than crafting fine schumps.

by Steckel Me Elmo on Sep 1, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fehr.

His per-minute and per-game numbers are consistently outstanding. He accomplished a lot last season (over 20 goals) playing 3rd-line minutes without skilled linemates. Give him more icetime, especially on the PP, and some better linemates, and he could potentially leapfrog Flash, Laich, and Knuble to become the 4th best forward on the team.

by LSF76 on Sep 1, 2010 6:52 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Holtby

Deep down we all know that Varly can’t sustain an entire season. Neuvirth gets yank’d in game 2 of the conference quarter finals and Holtby delivers a cup.

by SkipjackCap on Sep 1, 2010 6:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Ovechkin. No one’s talking about this kid but I think he’s gonna turn some heads with his talent.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Sep 1, 2010 7:07 PM EDT reply actions  

If he can’t play 2C or 6D, sorry not interested.

A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory

by Rather Bengt on Sep 1, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha, Ovechkin as 6D would be a sight to see. Probably fewer people screaming about him carrying the puck up the zone than about Green, and we know he can clear the crease (by pushing people into the net).

"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules

by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 1, 2010 7:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Indent this by a half inch and pretend I replied to Rather Bengt.

"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules

by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 1, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even though Nicky already broke out last year, I expect even more goals this year. Other than Nicky its obviously Fehr.

by CONGERO113 on Sep 1, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Varly

Time for him to play a full season and show us what he can really do

by Brainumbc on Sep 1, 2010 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

This would be the best case scenario for the Caps for either Neuvy or Varly having a breakthrough season.

4th Floor, is next, swimvare, undervare, Eric Fehr...

by JSchon on Sep 1, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought we were only counting current Caps in this one.

(But I get what you meant. We were waiting a long time for a break out season by Zubie.)

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Sep 1, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

When it comes to alphabetical order, he has nowhere to go but up.

A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory

by Rather Bengt on Sep 1, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brooks?

but would a breakout require changing all four tires and wiperblades?

A danger to myself and others on the ice

by can't skate on Sep 1, 2010 9:48 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

And a great season by his linemates.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Sep 1, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ima needing an oil change.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Sep 1, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say a breakout for Laich would be living up to about 50% of his legend.

Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman

by Rob Parker on Sep 1, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Carlson – 10 G 35 A

by reesem37 on Sep 1, 2010 11:42 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say other than Carlson/Alzner, I think Flash is going to have a good season. I say he’s going to start as our 2C and do a pretty good job. If he does well enough to keep the spot the whole season and get some momentum, I think he’ll put up numbers that MIGHT quiet some of the TRADEFLASHFORX talk (but who am I kidding?).

Oh, and Varlamov is going to emerge as an above-average starting goalie in the NHL by staying healthy for the majority of the season.

After reading the above, please remember that I am pretending to know anything about hockey.

by Laich Button on Sep 2, 2010 1:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Travis Zajac.

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by winterion on Sep 2, 2010 8:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Seriously, though, whoever ends up with that coveted second C spot is due to have a great season, if for no other reason that he will have a contract-year Semin on his wing. It could be an acquisition. It could be someone from the system (Mackan, Perreault). It could be Flash. I guess, in theory, it could even be Belanger.

My pick for “breakout player” this year is getPlayerByPosition(“2C”);

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by winterion on Sep 2, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mike Green.

John Carlson can carry some of the offensive load, and the Caps have better top-4 D depth than they’ve had in the last three years. That means Green can focus more on D and doesn’t have to be everything for everyone this year.

Green’s defense will improve by, say, 10 or 15% because of maturity and because of his more limited role. But the leaguewide reaction will be as though his defense improved three or four times that. Part of that is that he doesn’t get enough credit now for his defense. Part is the legitimate improvement he’ll show. And part is just storylines.

He’s going to make one hell of a redemption story — particularly if he gets less PP time so his offensive production drops — something that in today’s perverse hockey media environment will make him a better Norris candidate (as long as he still leads the league). The story will be about how he sacrificed some of his offense to start paying attention to his defense. It’s a bullshit story — the more true story would be “young defenseman improves his defense with maturity” — but it’ll have legs.

I’m not saying he’ll win his Norris. There are too many good defensemen who are improving right now to guarantee a thing like that. But he may very well be a better defenseman this year overall than Duncan Keith was last year.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Sep 2, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Interesting take. Do you see him getting less PP time, and if so, what’s the reason for that?

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by winterion on Sep 2, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do, and the reason would be that PP1 gets less time relative to PP2.

He can’t very well get more PP time, can he?

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Sep 2, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha, let’s not tempt fate! =)

I would certainly love to see PP2 get more time, even if it means taking that power play down one or two percentage points in effectiveness.

Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com

by winterion on Sep 2, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

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