Ranking the Capitals: #20
by J.P. on Sep 1, 2010 1:34 PM EDT
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PrintIn an effort to beat the summer doldrums, we're undertaking to rank - with your help - the Washington Capitals (only players under contract will be considered). The criteria is simple: who at this moment is the most valuable player in the organization who hasn't already been ranked? Put another way, if you could only keep one of the remaining players - because of what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on - who would it be? Consider age, potential, contract status, organizational depth, etc. - it's your call. And after you vote and defend your selection in the comments, help us out and suggest a name to add to the next poll. [Note: here's a recap of last year's rankings; previous "Ranking the Capitals 2010" posts can be found here.]
Welcome Boyd Gordon to the list and Tyler Sloan to the poll...
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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I was torn on this. I voted Eakin last time—I realized that I should have switched to Gordon a bit later—and I was thinking Steckel here, since his behindthenet.ca stats actually look kind of good.
So I voted Holtby. He isn’t that far behind Varlavirth, is he?
My main problem with voting for him at this point is where is is on the depth chart – 4th. Unless both Varly and Neuvy go down, he’s not going to be in the NHL this season, and maybe not in the near future.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
What do you mean 4th? He’s 3rd. Varly 1, Neurvy 2, Hotlby 3. They grabbed another goalie for the AHL Bears, but he is behind Hotlby in terms of current skill and potential skill.
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
In terms of depth (as in who would be on the Caps) he’s 4th. If Varly or Neuvy gets injured, Sabourin will come up, not Holtby. I definitely think Holtby is better, but he’s not leaving Hershey this season unless both Varly and Neuvy get hurt. Sabourin is an experienced NHL backup, and I think he’ll be Holtby’s backup at Hershey.
Skill level, Holtby is currently 3rd – but that’s not what the depth chart refers to.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I disagree somewhat. Hotlby will not leave Hershey unless GMGM thinks he will have a chance to play. They don’t want him sitting on the bench while Neuvy plays, that’s Sabourin’s job. But if there is a back to back game and Varly or Neurvy is gone, I would bet good money the Hotlby comes up to play not Sabourin.
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
Holtby needs more AHL experience before he plays in the NHL. The Caps already know Sabourin can play at the NHL level, so he’ll get those starts. There was no other good reason to get him.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Sabourin has a less than .900 career save rate. He’s not that good. We got him because we lost Cash and we needed a backup AHL goalie.
http://www.japersrink.com/2010/7/2/1549092/capitals-sign-sabourin
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
No, he’s not that good – which is why he’s in the AHL. But he has NHL experience, while Holtby’s experience is less than 1 season in the AHL. The only thing that made him better than any number of options the Caps had was NHL experience. Likely, his only time in the NHL will be as a backup – but the Caps know he can play at the NHL level if he is needed. Holtby is not ready for that yet, which is why he’ll be at Hershey for the whole season, unless BOTH Neuvy and Varly get hurt – in which case the Caps will be in trouble.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I figured the Caps got him because the Bears kinda like winning, and he is a very good AHL goalie.
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree because I think Hotlby is a better goalie than you give him credit for and Sabourin a worse. He has no NHL experience, but you can only get that by playing in the NHL.
Even the Oilers didn’t want Sabourin on their NHL team, so they stashed him in the AHL. “However, general manager Steve Tambellini declared on the day of the trade that he had no intention of bringing Sabourin to the Edmonton Oilers club. Instead, the Oilers stated that they intended to trade or waive Sabourin,4 who finished the year with Edmonton’s AHL affiliate Springfield Falcons. ”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dany_Sabourin" target="new">SOURCE
Then he signed with the Bruins who promptly stashed him in the AHL as well.
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
I’m with Timmy here. If the job is to sit on the bench and watch someone else play, that’ll be Sabourin. There is the odd chance, however, that Holtby might get a game or two if there is a back-to-back situation, but that’s doubtful.
I’m a little reluctant to anoint Holtby as a future stud, given that he’s got one year of pro experience, and that year he played behind one of the best AHL teams (and defenses) in recent history.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
It’s not that Holtby has no NHL experience, it’s that he has very little experience at any higher level – such as AHL. I think he has a shot at being a great goalie, he just has to develop first. This season in Hershey will be key to that, and I think it would hurt him to bring him up to the Caps for any real amount of time.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I should also give my overall view on Sabourin. I don’t think the Caps can depend on him for more than just a few games during the season. He’ll only come up in case of injury, and then he’ll be on the bench unless it’s absolutely necessary. If he is the goalie for 4 or 5 games during the season, it won’t hurt. Much more and it’s a problem.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
It’s Holtby for me this time. I find the debate about whether the AHL is the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world fairly interesting but one thing is for sure — it’s damned impressive that he basically led the AHL in goaltending for a good long stretch last year at his age. He’d be higher on my list, but Varlamov and Neuvirth make one of the three goalies a bit expendable. Still, Holtby’s a stud. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ends his career the best of the three. And I love the bit of Hextall he flashes every once in a while.
I’m not sure anyone else under contract has any kind of real star potential. Maybe Eakin?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 1, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If Eakin’s not a star after World Juniors, i’ll eat my hat.
He came into the Team Canada dev camp as ‘another one of the guys’ while the canadian media fanbois were drooling all over Taylor Hall and Leblanc. He soon tired of not getting what he thought was his proper due.
So he resolved to be the best player on the ice.
And he was.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
I haven’t seen Eakin play that I am aware of. Does he have potential to be a future 1st/2nd line player in the future?
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
He’s prolly closer to third liner right now, but he is lightning fast with good hands, good instincts, and a will of iron. Also a bit of cussedness, which I blame on the red hair.
That being said, I haven’t yet decided who I’m voting for.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
I voted Holtby as well. He has 1C potential and that’s higher upside than the rest of the list. Eakin is the only other guy I see in the top 6F/4D up there, though A. Gordon is getting tempting.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
They switched Holtby to center? ;-)
"The most important thing - to get to the playoffs and move on." Evgeny Kuznetsov
Best puck handler of the group…
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Sep 1, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Andrew Gordon’s NHL potential is as an excellent 3RW — a real difference maker in that role. Every good playoff team needs some forwards like what I think he could be. Just a well rounded player. Basically, what I think Brooks Laich is (and why I think Laich at 3LW is ideal)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 1, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I went with Steckel because he likely will play a key role on PK (mainly just for winning faceoffs which can hopefully be cleared) and the time he can eat up on ES. I just can’t voting for a prospect who I doubt will see NHL time this season, and the only other players likely to see time who are left are 6/7D and 13F.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I went with A Gordon, seem to be in quite the minority
My thinking behind that vote is that (a) there aren’t any guys left in the list that I think are key to the caps success or failure THIS YEAR, so I had to look to “future value”; (b) with Laich, Knuble, and Semin all UFA after the upcoming season, the caps will likely need some young cheap talent that can step into the lineup on the wing.
Holtby needs a longer resume before I (and more importantly, other teams GMs) can / should value him too highly. I don’t think he’s got much trade value, I don’t think he’s got any chance of playing for the Caps while Varly and Neuvirth are here, and I think there are plenty of cheap goalies on the market, all of which serves to de-value him in my mind.
I went with Holtby. If he continues to develop it allows the Caps to trade one of the goalies and gives them young, cheap depth at the position. I could have chosen several others. At this point its low NHL skill level versus unproven potential in almost every vote.
"The most important thing - to get to the playoffs and move on." Evgeny Kuznetsov
DJ King
Yeah, I went there. He gives us something that no one else on the list provides, so there is value there. Besides we conveniently know what he’ll fetch in a trade (Stephan Della Rovere).
I can see a case for Holtby, but with Varly and Neuvy ahead of him I’m still leaning King.
I can also see a case for Erskine, as our current #6, but I’m still going DJ.
by BradleyFightingVehicle on Sep 1, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions
I hear the Nationals have an enforcer who might be available for next to nothing. DJ King is suddenly less valuable, no?
Check out Fight For Old DC and DC Sports Plus!
by what Juneau about that? on Sep 2, 2010 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Braden
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Sep 1, 2010 6:57 PM EDT reply actions
Eakin
Holtby is buried on the depth chart, and I’m not totally wowed by his performance last year, since he was playing behind an epically great Bears team and defense. If he does it again, or if the team trades one of Varlavirth, he’d shoot up the rankings. Until then, Eakin’s combination of speed and skill has him project out to be a great 3rd liner a la Todd Marchant. He’s even a ginger, just like Marchant. Hopefully, in three years, we’ll have a center rotation of Backstrom, Mackan, Eakin and some other guy.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
You’re the only person I’ve seen that has Eakin pegged for the 3rd line. Care to explain? Everything else I’ve see has him 2nd or 3rd but you’ve basically cut the 2nd line out of your analysis. Is this just because you don’t think he’s going to pan out as a 2nd liner? Size again?
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Cody’s soon-to-be-former pxp man, who has watched him through all of juniors, says third-liner.
But that was before Cody earned a sweater in game six of a pro championship.
So we’ll see.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
by EmilyB on Sep 2, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gotta go with Stecks here, yes he didn’t have his best year last year but he’s still gotta be top 20
Why?
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 2, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
He’s the best face-off guy we got, he’s a solid penalty killer, he’s only 27, he proved two years ago he could elevate his game in the playoffs (Scratching him last year was idiotic). I understand Holtby and Eakin have tons of upside but right now it’s hard not to vote for a guy that can prove he can play 70+ games at the highest level.
Boyd Gordon has been within 2% of him for the last 3 years except last year when he topped him (to say nothing of Jay Beagle’s ability at it). His agility is trifling and as to elevating his game, he was one of the few people who possibly managed to regress in the regular season, so his playoff performance in the playoffs could hardly be considered a shock.
Would you want a 4C who can win faceoffs and little else, who’s likely to become overpaid in years 2 and 3 of that deal, or would you want the development potential that a Holtby or a Eakin can give you which (at the moment) appears to be higher than anything Steckel can bring to the table?
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
He’s good a faceoffs, but that pales in comparison to other skill sets, and Gordon’s nearly as good. The playoffs thing is overblown. What he basically did was have a good few game at an important time, and there’s not any reason to assume he’s going to up his game in the playoffs in the future.
Basically, if the Capitals lost Steckel today, a replacement who would match or nearly match his contribution wouldn’t be terribly difficult to come by – certainly not as hard to come by as someone with the upside of Holtby or Eakin.
by David Getz on Sep 2, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bah, and I forgot my last point, which is that Steckel’s not really that great of a penalty killer. The faceoff ability is nice, but after that, he’s not great. He doesn’t skate well, doesn’t have much agility, doesn’t have great hands, and doesn’t have great anticipation. Really, if it weren’t for his faceoff ability, I don’t know if I’d even want him out there.
But BB’s system makes him look much better since standing at the top of the circle and waving his stick hides his lack of mobility and makes his reach look like an asset.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I voted for Steckel at this point simply because I feel he is the most valuable left on the list. Unless a prospect is likely to be on the Caps this season, I can’t agree with putting them above a player who will be – even if it’s 4th line. And the Caps left are all worse than Steckel.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
That’s fine. I just don’t value any 4th liner that highly because they are so easy to replace. So anyone that has the potential to be better than a 4th liner is more valuable than a guy who has shown himself to top out as a 4th liner. Sure, right now our 4th liners are better than Eakin/Holtby/etc., but that’s not my frame of analysis. If our whole 4th line got in a car wreck I think we’d be ok because there are plenty of ways to acquire adequate replacements. I’d have to fill an entire 4th line than a single spot in the top 6(9)/4/1 so guys that might fill the 6(9)/4/1 are more valuable than a 4th liner. (The (9) is for teams like the Caps that try to roll 3 scoring lines, and it looks like that may be the way teams have to go based on looking at the recent successful teams.)
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
*
I’d rather have to fill an entire 4th line…
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Steckel and Gordon are both difficult to replace, due to their faceoff skill. There’s probably less than a dozen players in the NHL with the kind of percentages the two of them have put up. Other than that, neither stands out too much. If something happened to Eakin or Hotby right now, it wouldn’t affect the Caps at all.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
The question is not whether their faceoff ability can be replaced easily, but rather can their contribution towards winning given a replacement-level player. The answer is yes.
FO is a means to an end, not an end in itself.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 2, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
F&B was saying they would be easy to replace. A significant part of what each of them brings is an excellent FO%. The only player the Caps have who can replace them when you look at that facet of their game might be Beagle. Having two 4C’s who each win ~60% on faceoffs is extremely helpful for eating up the clock, which is a big part of what the 4th line does. So the FO% needs to be looked at, and cannot be replaced easily.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
But the total package can be.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
FO% is part of the total package – the biggest part for Steckel in my opinion. That’s the one thing that makes him valuable on the PK – I’ve seen him win quite a few faceoffs back to a dman that went for an instant clear, at which point Steckel dashes off the ice. It’s not quite so true with Gordon, because he is a better overall player – which is the reason I didn’t vote for Steckel until this point, when all the other starters are gone.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Steckel doesn’t get off the ice right when he wins a PK (assuming Poti doesn’t blow the clear). He stays on for a full shift and routinely takes another shift at the end of the PK. He’s not all that great at PKing but BB uses him like that because there aren’t a whole lot of things he can do.
Yes, FO is part of the package, but it’s not that important. FO wins don’t correlate strongly to winning, and even if you win the FO you have to, you know, play hockey. It doesn’t matter how good you are at the FO if you can’t play hockey very good. You could get a guy that only wins 53-54% of their FO but is a better hockey player than Steckel and it would be a net improvement. Plenty of those guys are around.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I’ve seen a number of times where he goes right off, as long as the clear is made. Not every time, but fairly often. You can get a better player with less faceoff skill, but not many for Steckel’s price – and probably not 54% guys. The fact that he can be replaced more easily tha most of the other starters is why I waited so long to vote for him – everyone left is either more replacable or a prospect with potential value instead of proven value.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
You can definitely find a 4th liner for under a mill.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Right. “Proven value” when talking about a 4th line forward is a bit of an oxymoron. Let’s just say they’re decent in varying degrees considering the role.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
So the FO% needs to be looked at, and cannot be replaced easily.
From Corey’s piece on centers (and specifically Steckel):
Being strong in the faceoff circle is of value, but if a team like the Capitals is going to spend near the salary cap ceiling a bottom-six forward probably needs double-digit goals and at least 20-25 points if he’s going to earn a seven-figure salary.
And Gordon:
A lot will depend on how well Gordon can stay healthy this year and the progress of other potential energy-line guys like Jay Beagle (who can play center and is also right-handed).
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
Furthermore, FOs in the grand scheme of things aren’t as important as other skills.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I just think guys like Brads, Gordon, Stecks and Chimera are constantly overlooked when it comes to playing when it actually matters. In playoff hockey some elevate their physical play, (Ovie, Back) Some don’t even know what physical means, (Semin and Green) and as for the 4th liners the game changes in their favor.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 8:46 AM EST)
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