With Mitchell off the Market, What's the Caps' Best Move?
by David Getz on Aug 30, 2010 11:46 AM EDT
Email
PrintWith the core of their team intact, a shallow group of players available, and limited salary cap space available, no one expected the Capitals to be major players in this year's free agent market. Nonetheless, it seemed somewhat plausible the team would try to address one of their most glaring weaknesses via the free agent market by adding a defenseman.
But, one by one, the legitimate top-four blueliners came off the market. Anton Volchenkov and Henrik Tallinder to New Jersey. Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek to Pittsburgh. Pavel Kubina to Tampa Bay. And, finally, last week, Willie Mitchell to Los Angeles.
For the Capitals, that means the prospect of adding a defensively responsible player who can chew up eighteen minutes a night, play in one of the top two pairings, and contribute on the penalty kill has evaporated. It also means the club's next move is uncertain.
This much we know: there are major risks in entering the season with the depth chart as it stands. For the moment, the team's planning to use John Erskine and Tyler Sloan as their sixth and seventh defensemen, and while each brings positives - Erskine's a tough customer and a physical presence on a team that could use some grittier play; Sloan's a good skater - neither looked ready to be an every-night player last season. After Sloan and Erskine, the situation gets even dicier.
Patrick McNeil and Zack Miskovic had solid seasons for Hershey last year, but neither has played in an NHL game, and each is far from a blue-chip prospect. Sean Collins is still with the organization, but it took an emergency situation to get him to the NHL in 2008-09 and he didn't get a look with the big club last season. In short, the instant an injury or two hit, the Capitals are going to in some serious trouble on the back end. At the very least, some sort of insurance policy is needed. But should the Caps be looking for more than that?
Even now, there are available free agent defensemen capable of being in the lineup on a nightly basis for a Cup contending team. Chief among them is Mike Mottau, who has averaged more than twenty minutes for the New Jersey Devils over the last three years, including time on the penalty kill. As In Lou We Trust notes, Mottau might come cheap - and end up being a bargain:
Last season, Mottau was put on shifts in New Jersey's end often (second largest differential behind Colin White); and played a ton of minutes, specifically an average of 22:15 per game (second behind Andy Greene), 19:19 per game at even strength (led the team). Per Behind the Net, Mottau had a good quality of teammates at even strength (0.081), but also faced a good quality of competition (0.033, second most among defensemen).
Back in May, in comparing Paul Martin's advanced stats with his teammates, I found that Mike Mottau actually compared quite well among defensemen in the league in terms of shots against per 60 (an important area to be good at for a defenseman). Plus, as noted in the defensive zone post earlier this month, Mottau managed an unadjusted positive Corsi (meaning, more meaningful puck possession for NJ when he was on the ice) despite not being offensive, playing next to an even-less-offensive Colin White, and having started in his own zone over 80 more times than in other team's end of the rink. That's pretty impressive.
As Tom noted a few days ago, Lemaire utilized Mottau quite a lot on the penalty kill last season; adding to his minutes and responsibilities. Tom wasn't as bullish on Mottau's PK performances, but he wasn't stinking it up on the ice either.
Given that Mottau made all of $762,500 last season, that's getting a lot of bang for your buck.
Of course, Mottau does have his limitations - he's not a big, or physical, player, and he was probably overextended getting so many minutes in New Jersey (there's a reason Lou Lamoriello signed Volchenkov and Tallinder this offseason, even beyond Paul Martin leaving). But there's also nothing in his skill set or numbers that should make the team anxious about sending him out for a regular shift in a postseason game.
Another option in the same vein would be Kim Johnsson, a chronically underrated player who has been a productive NHLer for more than a decade. Johnsson offers the advantage of bringing some additional offense from the point with a solid shot and good puck-moving skills, and averaged nearly a point every other game before finding himself in an offensively conservative Minnesota Wild system.
The biggest issue with Johnsson, who was good enough for the Chicago Blackhawks to add at last year's trading deadline, is the same combination of health and age that gave teams pause about Willie Mitchell. Like Mitchell, Johnsson's 2009-10 season ended early as the result of a concussion and, at 34, he's old enough for teams start wondering about a decline, concussion or no concussion. Johnsson undoubtedly carries some risk but, as is the case with Mitchell, he should be a solid contributor on a nightly basis, provided his health holds up.
Another remaining defender who might be looked to as a top-four player, is Paul Mara, who has played that role for most of his career, averaging better than 21 minutes a game during his 11-year NHL career, including seven season of better than twenty minutes a game. The question with Mara is how much he has left in the tank. He was never a great skater, and the post-lockout rule changes, coupled with the toll his physical style has taken on his body, mean he's not as effective as he was earlier in his career.
More realistically, Mara might be straddling the line between guys who would be regulars in the postseason and guys who, while an upgrade over Sloan and Erskine and valuable as depth players, might ideally be sitting in the press box come April. That list includes guys like Jay McKee, who has the same skating and wear-and-tear issues as Mara, Christoph Schubert, whose consistency means he's never reached his substantial potential, and Garnet Exelby, who's a slightly better version of John Erskine. We're not in love with any of those guys, but if history's any indication, the Caps are going to need ten (or more) blueliners throughout the course of the season. Given that at this moment that means substantial ice time for Erskine, Sloan, and combination of McNeil, Collins, and Miskovic, a Jay McKee starts to look pretty appealing.
Of course, the fact the Capitals' defense corps is underwhelming as current constructed doesn't necessarily mean the team needs to go out and make an acquisition, especially since what really matters is who's on the team after the trade deadline. Still, making an addition or two in the summer has its advantages - more time to let players develop chemistry, a better chance to assess your needs, an opportunity to give guys like Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, and Tom Poti less ice time and ease in Karl Alzner and John Carlson, and the fact that you're not bidding against other teams in an exchange of assets. Summer's the time to figure out what your team's weaknesses are and address them; the deadline's the time to upgrade the team if the right trade's there to be made.
Mitchell's off the market, but there are still players out there who help the Capitals by serving as an upgrade over the current personnel and by adding depth. Right now, it makes sense to go after at least one of them.
Make the jump to see side-by-side statistics.
126 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If we can’t find an upgrade that fits in contract wise, we certainly need a depth upgrade. Johnsson would be a nice addition, especially as an older, more experienced guy to help the younger guys learn the NHL game, while also being able to play big minutes if the need should arise.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
It’s been strongly hinted that Johnsson is going to retire. At the very least, he has no immediate plans to play this season, and it’s unlikely that the Caps would get him under contract before October 7.
For a guy in contract for 2 years? Might have to send a roster player the other way to make it work unless you’re that desperate to get under the cap.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Flames have 8 one-way contracts on the back-end and 23 year-old, former first rounder Matt Pelech set to become eligible for waivers this year. I’d much rather get rid of Staios, but that’s not happening.
Flames are over the cap and need to get rid of a defender. Sarich is the most desirable of the expendables. I doubt he’d cost much to acquire.
by Kent Wilson on Aug 30, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the post and list of bottom-barrel avail guys. But as was alluded to, there’s a reason these guys aren’t signed (yet!).
I think it would be more interesting to compare these names with potential D available at the trade deadline. Sure we dont have a clear picture now but there have been plenty of names thrown around. I point this out because I think GMGM is comparing the cost of signing one of these guys (bottom four D) vs trading what you got for a top 4 D mid-season.
Either way what scared me most was pointing out you’ll need 10 D to get through a season. With that in mind i would be okay with Mottau or Johnson, purely for depth.
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
I gotta be honest… I don’t get a warm and fuzzy feeling looking at that list. Draft picks over the years aren’t just prospects in waiiting, they are trade assets, even if you’re strongest growth pillar is the draft. The Caps might have to trade for that defenseman, now or later.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Aug 30, 2010 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I have a sneaky suspicion that there are some guys who will have Caps or Bears sweaters in October that won’t in March. I suspect GMGM will move Flash, if for no other reason than to keep BB from getting tempted by his favorite toy come playoff time.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Aug 30, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
The closer we get to the season with no movement, the more I think Flash starts the season as the #2C.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
IF Flash can do a mediocre job at 2C, then the roster looks a lot more balanced. Add either Belanger or MarJo in at 3C, with MP available for callups, and it’s passable. Especially if the club picks up Mottau to add some depth at D.
If Flash sucks, then it’s all bolluxed up.
I agree with you that he’s the opening night 2C, by the way.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
The trade route is best, and Fehr is the bait
Do the Caps need more “depth” at D? What I think we should be looking at is a heavy rotation top 4 guy, not the bottom 2 or 3.
Mottau’s minutes on NJ’s defense the last several years have been as a top 4 but clearly was not viewed as a key player and was let go. Does he really become an automatic upgrade over any of Schultz, Green, Poti, or Carlson? He seems kind of Morrisonn-y to me.
The trade scenario is obviously the best route to go, as teams can match key needs. It also plays into GMGM’s style much better, where he can control the terms of the deal. We just might be facing the loss of a key offensive player, like Flash or Fehr (I’m thinking Fehr is major trade bait and because unlike Flash, he has that physical element to his game)
I don’t think people really appreciate how badly Morrisonn played over the last couple of seasons. He was stone-cold awful at ES, even partnered with @GreenLife52 and getting significant time with the Young Guns.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yup. ShaMo’s stats make him look even worse than my eyes did, and that’s saying something. He was quietly awful.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 30, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Mottau or Mara would be good depth pickups for the Caps.
There are also a few D-men out there who the Caps could extend a camp tryout. One name that comes to mind is Tom Preissing; he’s a decent puck mover, though he’s not the greatest defensively. Nevertheless, if he can help keep the puck out of the Caps’ end, he might be worth a look at the very least.
I’m no historian but I’m guessing that the last time an NHL team made it through a season with only seven defensemen, Calvin Coolidge was probably working in the Oval Office. And no, I don’t consider Patrick McNeil or Zack Miskovic NHL defensemen. They don’t need Paul Martin, but the Caps do need at least one more veteran defenseman who can play at least 40-50 games. I refuse to believe that McPhee doesn’t see this.
The next move
is no move. bank that space for the first 40 games and then get jiggy with it.
Choking since 1985.
Agreed.
Go into the season with what we have and hope that what we need is available at the deadline. Also hope that Flash has a hot start so he has some good value.
Insert something witty here.
by Knubles and Bits on Aug 30, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I kind of agree. I’m not a fan of “hoping” and waiting until the deadline. The Caps have cap room. McPhee needs to be aggressive and—hopefully—he can get one done well before the deadline, if not Kovalchuk 2010 deadline (pre-Olympics) then maybe Chimera-time.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not really a fan of “hoping” either, but honestly what we really need isn’t available now. No need in making a move for a guy like Souray who isn’t really going to make this team much better.
Insert something witty here.
by Knubles and Bits on Aug 30, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I was saying that I don’t want to “hope” that the guy will, in fact, be available. GMGM has the cap room to get the guy earlier rather than later, and that comes without the deadline demand price bump too.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
On Mara...
Old friend Paul Mara, formerly of the Canadiens, remains on the hunt for 2010-11 employment. The Belmont native and summertime Falmouth resident had some offseason shoulder repairs performed by Dr. Thomas Gill at Massachusetts General Hospital. But according to agent Jay Fee, Mara will be ready to go come training camp. "He was delivering exactly what people needed,’’ Fee said. "Toughness, blocked shots, hits. He’s still young. He’s only 30. He’s got mobility and a bomb of a shot.’’ In 42 games last season, the ex-Bruin recorded zero goals and eight assists while averaging 18:43 of ice time. Mara didn’t dress for a game after Jan. 22. "He can still get up and down pretty good,’’ Fee said. "It depends on the system and what a coach asks him to do. He’s got playoff experience and the ability to play in three zones.’’ Mara carried a $1.675 million cap hit in 2009-10, and will need to accept a pay cut and a short-term deal.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Mara gets my vote as someone MCcPhee should at least be kicking the tires on. The Caps don’t necessarily need an 80-game defenseman, but if they can get someone who can fill the #6 slot for 50 games that means Slerskine only has to cover the remaining 30 games. I’d feel comfortable with that arrangement.
Given that at this moment that means substantial ice time for Erskine, Sloan, and combination of McNeil, Collins, and Miskovic, a Jay McKee starts to look pretty appealing.
It depends.
Before a mid-November injury last year, I believe McKee was averaging a staggering 4+ blocked shots per game. As the season wore along McKee got worse and worse and his role reduced heavily. Eventually it got to the point where he was a healthy scratch on a defensive unit that was far from a strong point.
I was particularly under-whelmed by McKee’s skating and puck skills. His skating was slower and more labored the deeper the year went. The puck skills were hurried decisions and often resulted in poor passes off the mark, or failed attempts to properly clear the zone (without icing it).
Perhaps the summer has healed McKee and he’s back to October/November form. It’s not out of the question he still can be effective, I’ve seen it. Then again, given the occupational hazard of seeking out shots to block it’s a better bet that he breaks down than makes it through a full season and playoffs at this age.
So it may not be pretty, but over the whole season, I’d think Erskine/Sloan would be a better fit for McKee in 2010-11 in a 6/7 role. However if the Caps had some defensive injuries and McKee’s doesn’t attend a training camp, he’d probably be a nice vet to pluck off the scrap heap at the last second in case of emergency. But that doesn’t seem very likely.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I think what D’s referring to is McKee in that deep depth role, more over Collins/Misky than Erskine/Sloan, though obviously he’d be on the NHL roster.
McKee played 14 games in October last season, 8 in November, a dozen in December and 15 in January. No matter where he signs, if he gets that many games in the first half of the season, he’s likely not going to be worth much thereafter.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
McKee is one guy that scares me because of the blocked shots. I can understand if Volchenkov or Michalek blocks lots of shots because they face stiff competition, but McKee looks last in Corsi QoC, Corsi Rel QoC, QualComp, and Corsi Rel QoT. That indicates to me that he might be spending too much time in his own zone. Any insight, Hooks? Was he different earlier in the season, or was spending lots of time in his own zone a season long trend?
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought this was pretty telling"
"There was a time midseason where I was asked to change my game a little bit and actually asked to not block as many shots," McKee said. "That was a bit of transition and got in my head a bit."
Clearly the Pens didn’t want him rushing the puck up the ice or making constant breakout passes, it was more likely “don’t leave your feet so much to block shots” “positionally let Fleury see the puck and don’t screen him so much trying to block the damn thing your self in early season games”. Whatever it was, he either obviously wasn’t comfortable or effective down the stretch, and it didn’t end up meshing with the pace and tempo of the Pens. Similarly, Washington isn’t a team that likes to spend a lot of time in their own zone either, so there’s that issue as well.
McKee was usually paired with Goligoski and as your stats indicate, they really were a 3rd pairing in terms of getting difficult minutes. Given that most Pens F had positive Corsi Rel QoC’s, I think it shows McKee was out there with fellow negatives like the Craig Adams’ and Mike Rupp’s a lot more than the skill players.
McKee spent a lot of time in his own end, but I don’t remember it being excessively a problem.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
On the surface, Johnsson is the best choice, but his head is full of pudding at this point. This is a different situation altogether from Mitchell – Johnsson has had many, many concussions. If I had to take one of those guys, I suppose it’d be Mottau, but I wouldn’t be enthusiastic about it. The reason Mottau would likely be best is that Boudreau’s defensive system is predicated on pressuring the puck and recovering quickly if teams beat the pressure. It requires defensemen that can skate and, of that group, Mottau is clearly the best skater.
None of the above names really grab me. I think the Caps should wait and see what they’ve got in Alzner and Carlson before rushing out to fill the #6D “hole.” There will be plenty of guys available during the season and approaching the deadline.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Two, by the back window, for 8:00.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 30, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Is there ever a bad time for pudding?
Is there?
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Aug 30, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Devils fan here, Mottau’s biggest weakness is his skating, specifically he’s not very quick. Id say Johnsson is the best skater of the bunch, saw him play a ton when he was on the Rangers and then Philly.
Ok. I haven’t seen Mottau play all that much, but I assumed that, as a smaller player from the NCAA, he was likely a decent skater.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Wow that really does paint a pretty bleak picture for next years defense when injuries rear their inevitable head. Hopefully we can land a good defenseman without having to trade a guy like Flash (sorry I just really don’t see why we would trade him until we’re absolutely sure Semin will be back) because as it is we really don’t seem to have what you might call a “cup winning blue line.”
as it is we really don’t seem to have what you might call a "cup winning blue line."
Maybe not yet, but let’s remember that Chicago gave a sweater to Jordan Hendry and Nick Boynton for 18 games altogether.
In 08-09, Pittsburgh gave nine games to Phillipe Boucher.
In 07-08, Detroit gave 12 and 14 games, respectively, to Andreas Lilja and somebody’s granddad Chris Chelios (and Lilja’s still available).
In 06-07, Anaheim dressed Kent Huskins and Joe DiPenta for 21 and 16 games, respectively.
In 05-06, Carolina’s defense was a collection of has-beens (Wesley, Hedican), and never-weres (Kaberle).
The point is that plenty of Stanley Cup winning teams have anonymous mediocre defensemen filling out their #6 spot.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Aug 30, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pittsburgh IIRC was dressing 7 D, and Anaheim/Carolina lucked out because the guys you listed played pretty well for once, especially Hedican and Kaberle (who scored 50 points during the regular season). But yeah, you don’t need a very strong blueline, but if you can win a Cup with minimum 5D playing lots of time every night, as soon as you have an injury you’re done.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Carolina “lucked out,” but they also didn’t have any extremely weak players. They had a lot of B and C players. No A’s or F’s.
Anaheim basically never let those guys touch the ice. Pronger, Niedermayer, and Beauchemin all averaged right around 30mins/night, while O’Donnell picked up another 20. That left 10 whole minutes to be filled a night by whomever.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Having a whole bunch of grade B/C players can work if you have great goaltending (see the New Jersey Devils c. 1995-2003). I had this discussion with my sales rep who couldn’t believe the Devils could contend. He said they can’t win because their top line wasn’t good. I said they do win because they can send out four second lines, one right after another.
Some teams give 25-30 minutes to one or two defensemen. The Caps don’t have that kind of defenseman, at least I don’t think they do. Alzner might be able to log 28 a game, ditto for Carlson, but I sure don’t want Green, Schultz or Poti up in that range…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Aug 30, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t want Green to burn out, but I sure think he can log 25 minutes a night if need be. He’s not great at conserving energy like Pronger, but I think every now and then it’s alright. I certainly ain’t giving any other Caps D more than 22 mins.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but NJ’s defense had three “A” players in Stevens, Niedermayer and Rafalski.
Their forward corps, on the other hand…
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Was also ridiculously underrated with guys like Guerin, Arnott, Lemieux, Elias, Gomez, and Gionta carrying the offense and a strong cast of role players, including some of the best checking Fs of the last 15 years. I’ll hate on NJD until the cows come home, but this reputation that their team was a bunch of beer leaguers, the Scotts, and Brodeur is just not true.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Aug 30, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Depends on the years. 1995, I think their forwards were mediocre. 2000, they were much better.
Still, when you compare them to the other elite teams of that era (Detroit and Colorado), or even Philly or Dallas, the skill differential at the forward position is immense. NJ never had a single player with the talent level of Forsberg, Sakic, Yzerman, Fedorov or Shanahan (except for that brief period when they actually had, you know, Shanahan).
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
1995 was the year they were mediocre. That year I’ll buy, and the trap caught a lot of teams by surprise, but I still think there was more talent on that team than people give them credit for. True, no real elite players up front, but a lot of 2/3 type guys.
And the other two NJD teams to win a Cup were in the top 5 in the league in scoring. I’m pretty sure one of them was the top team in the league in scoring, and the team that lost to COL was also.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
the 1999-2000 tam finished second in scoring, but 2002-2003, they were 14th. The 2000-2001 team that lost to the Avs were the ones that lead the league. (that team’s 3.6g/g would be the highest until the 05-06 Senators put up 3.8)
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Perhaps important to note…
That Chicago team used 7 D in the playoffs. That PIT team used 8. DET? 7. ANA? 8. CAR? 7.
It would seem a good idea to be at 8-D deep come playoff time… and there’s no reason to think the Caps won’t be.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
All true, but the point was that the guys filling out those last spots just aren’t that important. If Erskine comes off the bench to fill in here and there and skate 10 minutes, I’m not going to flip out – that’s what he’s there for. If, however, he’s getting a regular sweater and skating 15+ minutes a night, we’re probably hosed.
The bigger problem the Caps have is that we don’t have the minute-eaters on the top end…yet. Green, Schultz and the yutes are getting there, but we don’t have guys like Pronger, Niedermayer or Lidstrom that can comfortably give us 30+ mins a night.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Agreed completely, but it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Caps get that huge minute-chomper, which is why the back-end for the Caps might be more important than it was for an Anaheim or a Detroit or a Chicago.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah, this is why I think so much hinges on the development of Alznerson. If they can develop into guys who take up around 20 mins/night, and Green, Poti and Schultz all take up around 25, that leaves only around 10 minutes a night for a guy like Erskine.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Right. Because the guys you cite are big minute guys because they play all situations. Green, ideally, isn’t a top PKer. Schultz will never see the PP. Alzner either. So there isn’t likely going to be a huge minute guy for the Caps (other than Green, perhaps, by virtue of his 1:59 of ice time per two-minute PP), meaning that even the last pair guys are going to need to play some minutes, likely including PK minutes.
Assume for a moment that you need four PKing Ds. Right now, those are probably Schultz, Alzner, Poti (who sucks at it, as is well-documented) and Erskine, no? Maybe Carly grows into that role quickly. Maybe not. Maybe Green gets some PK time. But the Caps likely can’t dress a D that doesn’t give them any special teams TOI, which is why Sloan is next-to-worthless, IMO.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Further to this point, Jurcina and Shamo were 3rd and 4th in SH TOI last regular season. How are those minutes going to be replaced? Alzner is a start, but Carlson likely isn’t. Right now, it’s gotta be Erskine, who was 7th last year at 1:09 per game, just over half of what Green got.
Get ready for another season of PK suck…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Why isn’t Green ideally a top PKer? His GAON/60 4-on-5 in 2008-2009 was absolutely stellar while his Corsi QoC was 2nd among Caps D that played 40 games (though his Corsi QoT was 2nd too). In 2009-2010 he was decent while his Corsi QoC was second to Poti and his Corsi QoT fourth to Carlznerson and Schultz.
I don’t think Green should be the main PKer, but I don’t see him as a bad option at all. I’m a fan of splitting up the PK time evenly among three guys and then maybe another one or two guys with less, but still significant, TOI, not the obscene skew towards Poti that exists right now. If you mean Green isn’t top pairing as in the pair that’s relied heavily upon to PK, then I agree.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s not ideally a top PKer because he has a limited number of total minutes he can play, and those are better spent on the PP and at ES. I mean, I understand that a goal prevented = a goal scored, but I think you maximize his effectiveness by letting him sit out the PKs. That said, if he gets some minutes there, I’m fine with it.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’d rather him skate :30-:45 of each PK and take that out of each PP. There are serious diminishing returns trying to skate him 1:59 of every PP, and those negative effects carry on to the rest of the game. It’s simply a nightmare to recover from a 2 minute shift, even for a professional athlete in the kind of shape Mike Green is supposed to be in.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Aug 30, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The same then applies to AO, no?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep. But I’m not about to advocate AO on the PK. That’s an emergency circumstances deployment, IMO. Green should be playing some PK, and doing it reliably.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
To be sure, I don’t want AO on the PK either.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Rather, not the PK part, but dropping 30s to 45s off of each PP shift.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it’s worth, Carlson was seeing a pantload of PK time in the Montreal series. Sure, being paired next to Poti might be a reason for the prominence, but perhaps it’s hope that Dean-o has been tweaking some things in that area in the offseason also.
It’s almost weird; last year the problem seemed to be too many bottom 3 D, now the problem could be finding just one that’s both a reasonable fiscal asset and won’t fall over when he goes out on the ice for warmups.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Erskine put up pretty subpar PK numbers last season and wasn’t far from Sloan in terms of not being a legit special teams option. In his favor was very solid, simple ES defensive play. Maybe improved skating helps him in that area but I’d rather go with Carlson and sprinkle in Green as well. It seems like it’s shaping up to be something of a developmental season so might as well challenge the youngsters and see just how much responsibility they’re comfortable handling.
Erskine put up pretty subpar PK numbers last season
Yep, he was awful. He was well-hidden (and, in fairness, effective) at ES, but with the departures of Juice and ShaMo, can he (or any other 6th D) not play on the PK? That’s my point, and I have my doubts.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Carlson was phenomenal in limited PK time last year – I think he could do well if the team limits his PK minutes. We took 11.5 PIMs/game. Double that to get 22 mins of defensemen on the PK. 4:40 or so of that was taken up with ShaMo and Juice, so those minutes will have to come from somewhere. Here’s last year’s numbers / followed by my projection:
Green: 2:09 / 3:00
Poti: 3:36 / 3:40
Schultz: 2:38 / 3:40
Carlson: 0:18 / 2:20 (replaces ShaMo)
Alzner: 1:32 / 2:20 (replaces Juice)
That’s 15 minutes of PK time. That means someone needs to fill in another seven minutes. Green, Schultz and the Kids better step up, or shit’s gonna get butt-fugly.
The rest of your points are all well-taken, particularly on Sloan’s relative lack of worth.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Extremely limited PK time for Carly last year (until the playoffs, at least).
I think it’s asking a lot of those kids to take those minutes and play them well. I think it’s a lot to ask Mike Green to spend more time on the ice (though I’m sure you’d favor dropping his PP time accordingly). And I think more Tom Poti isn’t something the PK needs.
Essentially, there’s a lot of hoping here, and hope ain’t a plan.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And then there is the whole issue of whether the D are the real problem on the PK; whether there is any realistic combination of D that is going to be able to make an effective PK out of the traffic cone forward deployment.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
If you go with the ~340 minors the Caps took, then it comes out to 8.3 mins of SHTOI per game or so, so 16 and a half minutes. So it roughly works out.
Alternatively, we can look at the Caps’ basically top-6 D for most of the season—Green, Poti, Schultz, Morrisonn, Juice, and Erskine/Sloan (they both averaged just over 1 minute per game). That comes out to around 12 mins, using the numbers you listed for 52/3/55, ~2:15 for 26/23, and 1:05 for 4/89 (but counted once, since it was one or the other).
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And I wonder what that has to do with this post.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 30, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well the annoucement of his signing was suppose to be made after a trade (probably for a blue liner had happened)…..which never did.
I believe what J.P.‘s trying to say is let’s talk about what’s in front of us (and speculate on what isn’t in other areas) in the Rink.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
In that case…it appears to me that the free agent defensemen that are available right now don’t seem to be much of an upgrade from what the Caps are currently working with. Obviously GMGM’s plan of waiting to see what is available during the season (however unpopular) may be the best that we as fans could hope for. A servicable blue liner is still obtainable, although I wouldn’t think he’s in the FA pool….someone would have to move out to get him here.
so isn’t the caps best move to sign belanger? you know, since basically they already have?
Choking since 1985.
But…they haven’t, and isn’t really relevant to DMG’s discussion. Move along.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing shocking about it. A blog’s gotta have a code…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 30, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
what about a motto?
#NeedsMoreBradley
by Addison H. on Aug 30, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think so, although I was under the impression that would have been aanounced once a Michell or a Kaberle has taken up residence here.
psst
Caps Clips for general hockey talk, otherwise make sure you’re on topic with the post at hand.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Any takers on Bryce Salvador? Since the Devils are dumping salary, he’ll cost you a 3rd rounder at most, and maybe the Devils will send an average prospect with him.
In Lou We Trust: Continuing a saga no one really cares about
If the quality of my posts begin to get better, it's because i'm doing steroids.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Aug 30, 2010 1:48 PM EDT reply actions
Probably not, given the years left on his K.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Well that and a $2.9 million cap hit isn’t going to help either.
In Lou We Trust: Continuing a saga no one really cares about
If the quality of my posts begin to get better, it's because i'm doing steroids.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Aug 30, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s really the 2011-12 part that’s a problem, more than the $2.9m (though that’s a bit steep for that player, IMO).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I see. If it was any defenseman with an expiring contract, then you’re okay (which is something the Devils don’t have.)
In Lou We Trust: Continuing a saga no one really cares about
If the quality of my posts begin to get better, it's because i'm doing steroids.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Aug 30, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, an expiring contract is much more desirable for this year’s Caps.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Toronto
Right now, the Leafs have nine defensemen on NHL contracts per CapGeek. Those contracts total $28.325m, or very nearly half of their cap space.
I’d be happy to offer them something for Francois Beauchemin.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Actually, it’s $3.8 and he’s got another year left after this one.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I’d rather try and keep the four “core” D and search annually for a fill-in, especially when the option (Beauchemin) is coming fairly expensive.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He would essentially take Poti’s place cap-wise. He’s a huge upgrade over Poti.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I’d be totally okay with this.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
There is an increasing likelihood that Chara will be available. Forget Beaujolais.
Choking since 1985.
Chara likely is not available and he’s too expensive.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
He’s a UFA and Boston has some big decisions to make.
He won’t be too expensive after we bank cap space for half a season.
Choking since 1985.
I’m pretty sure that he’s out of our price-range in assets required, too.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s an unknown one way or another. Depends on the market, what teams can afford him, what teams he wants to play for (NTC or not, he’s not getting dumped in Columbus).
Although I won’t advocate stupidity, this team can’t keep saving everything for a rainy day. It’s raining.
Choking since 1985.
The problem is, Boston is also competing for the Cup this year. They were one win away from the Conference finals, and they were decimated with injuries. I don’t see them dealing a rival Cup contender their best defenseman and captain.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Boston would have to absolutely crater, and we’d likely have to send a lot back the other way, including one of Karlznerson.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
My own gut feeling is that Boston will not crater this year. If anything, they had a terrible regular season last year and barely squeaked into the playoffs. 2008-2009, the team played over their heads. If we have regression to the team, chances are, the team will be better than they were last year but worse than 2008-2009.
Rocking the Red since 1975
The Leafs have to do something – but it might just be exiling Finger to the AHL. As it stands, with Finger on the roster, they’re about $600K over the cap, according to Mirtle.
The easy cure is just eating Finger’s salary, though, and MLSE is not short of funds.
I’d take Beauchemin any day, though.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
If Johnsson doesn’t retire, he is the best of the lot above. Mara has some upside to him in that he will come cheap, and he will play solid in the defensive end.
I don’t like the idea of McKee. When he’s healthy, he’s fine, but he had injury problems back when he played for the Sabres… and remember, he played for the Sabres when the Caps and Sabres played in 1998 for the Eastern Championship. The guy isn’t a spring chicken and healing takes longer when you’re McKee’s age than it does when you’re a lot younger.
Cory Sarich was mentioned above… not really a good solution here in DC. Not that he wouldn’t be an improvement (most regular 18-22 minute guys in the NHL would be a step up from Erskine and Sloane) but the Caps can get equal value from someone who makes less $$ (like Mara…)
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
Would any of these remaining guys be a better deal than Jurcina at 1 mil?
Caps obviously were hoping for an upgrade, but hindsight is a bitch.
I guess the thinking was that the team already has Sloskine under contract for $1.8m. I think they’ll keep Erskine around as insurance, and they’re willing to put Sloan in Hershey or see him leave via waivers. I’m just not sure they’re convinced that Jurcina really is a huge upgrade over Erskine, and I think Jurcina wanted an opportunity to play bigger minutes.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
But he’s not even guaranteed minutes in New York (see the roster). He’s at best 6/7 there.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’d disagree. I think he’s at least a 5 on that team and, given the injury history of guys like Martinek, Eaton and Wisniewski, I think he’ll probably get a good chance to see lots of ice.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I’m on record as being someone who thinks Jurcina would play better with more ice time, so perhaps I’m being overly optimistic. I just look at the frailty of some of the guys ahead of him and think that if he can stay healthy, he’ll likely get ice time by default.
What he does with that ice time is another story.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
It’s odd that Jurcina – who was essentially a full-time NHLer coming out of the lockout – is still getting contracts based on potential. Good on his agent (@walsha), I guess.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Jeebus…that roster looks like the fifth circle of contract hell.
is it cold yet?
by bigonetimer on Aug 30, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
A couple of points in response to this:
1. GM pretty obviously decided he wasn’t doing anything FA-related until he had all the RFA’s sorted out. Juice signed before that happened, IIRC.
2. Juice, or his functional equivalent, is available every year in free agency. The Caps probably figured they could replace his minutes at around that ballpark at any point.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Best move? I think McPhee can wait on guys like Mara. He’s not signed yet and there’s nothing to indicate that he or one of the other guys won’t be around a bit longer. I think a trade is the best move. We have assets, and the fact that Mitchell was in town for a visit tells me that GMGM is aware that it is a need for us. He likes his cap space and a trade involving Flash would likely keep him at least some of that space. No rumors on anything anywhere (at least that I’ve found) which tells me that the only reason they have not announced Belanger is because something is still pending. As I’ve heard you guys and gals say many times…GMGM’s moves are usually unexpected. I’ve stopped trying to guess who he is trading for, it’s annoying…just waiting for the deal to get done!
I went to a fight, and a hockey game broke out!
Interesting tidbit about Paul Mara: since he’s played over 400 NHL games and he spent over 100 days on long-term injured reserve last year, he’s eligible for a one-year contract with performance bonuses. Same deal as Willie Mitchell.
Well, for less money… Mitchell’s a better player than Mara when both are healthy….
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Aug 30, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
50 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 59 |
|
Washington
|
50 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 56 |
|
Winnipeg
|
53 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 54 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
50 | 22 | 23 | 5 | 49 |
|
Carolina
|
53 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 47 |
(updated 2.4.2012 at 8:30 AM EST)
The Vault
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Fight Video: Ilya Kovalchuk KOs Flyers’ Brayden Schenn with nasty right hook
- Penguins’ Brooks Orpik launches Daniel Paille with massive hit (Video)
- Penguins, Bruins face their challenges in Eastern Conference showdown
- Olli Jokinen’s slump-buster is a Big Mac meal from McDonalds (Video)
- Friday’s Three Stars: Brassard wins it for Blue Jackets in overtime; Halak blanks Kings
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
