Ranking the Capitals: #18
by J.P. on Aug 30, 2010 7:25 AM EDT
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PrintIn an effort to beat the summer doldrums, we're undertaking to rank - with your help - the Washington Capitals (only players under contract will be considered). The criteria is simple: who at this moment is the most valuable player in the organization who hasn't already been ranked? Put another way, if you could only keep one of the remaining players - because of what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on - who would it be? Consider age, potential, contract status, organizational depth, etc. - it's your call. And after you vote and defend your selection in the comments, help us out and suggest a name to add to the next poll. [Note: here's a recap of last year's rankings; previous "Ranking the Capitals 2010" posts can be found here.]
Welcome Matt Bradley to the list and Patrick McNeill to the poll...
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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I guess if MP had a 5 year post then maybe he’d be off this list too. Whatevs. Still MP, with Kugryshev on deck.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
My vote for Bradley in the last poll had little to do with my feelings for him personally, and more to do with his effectiveness killing penalties and in overall play. I would have taken Gordo had I thought he could stay healthy, but I just don’t see that happening.
Even though I may enjoy watching MP play, I think he’s ticketed for Hershey this year and long-term I think he’s been surpassed by Johansson. Hopefully he comes into camp and proves me wrong, but I just can’t put him in front of Brads or Gordon in that situation.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Considering how terrible our PK is and the fact that no single player (especially F) is likely to have much impact on the success rate I just don’t see how anybody is getting votes based on PK prowess.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
well, he had the best GAON/60 rating of anyone on the caps that played at least 1 minute TOI/60 on the PK, at 4.24. So even if the overall PK is not good, it’s clearly WORSE when he’s not playing (as evidenced by the fact that is 4v5 GAOF/60 is nearly double, at 8.05).
I don’t think you neccessarily vote for him because he is “an excellent PKer”, but the fact that he is one of the best PKers on the team increases his overall value to the caps.
But he’s not so good at PK that he makes it not a brutal weakness. He’s like putting a Q-Tip in a gaping stab wound. He absorbs more blood than the rest of the crap available, but at the end of the day it’s not a solution.
I know KHTaD disagrees, but I still think Bradley is pretty replaceable. Sure, he’s on a pretty good contract, but there are always grinders available.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Gordo at 800k is good value to me. I think he’s probably one of, if not the smartest player on the Caps.
When I watch Gordo, I don’t see a guy who’s dragging our PK down, unlike, say Steckel or Poti.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I thought we were talking about Bradley. Is Gordon really much different from Blair Betts?
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
No, not appreciably, but I don’t think MP is going to play more than a handful of games with the Caps this year, and I think Johansson has passed him on the long-term depth chart. Right now, he’s in no-man’s land for me.
Betts = Gordo > MP.
At least in my mind. I love watching the kid play, but I think he’s facing an uphill climb to make this team.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Ok. Then Holtby. Or Eakin. Anyone that has upside that isn’t “a healthy 4th liner” is more valuable than those guys. Even if you think MP is in no man’s land he has more potential to make a difference that isn’t easily replaced than any checker.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Holtby is currently 4th in line for a goaltending spot in DC. If he didn’t have two 22 year old phenoms in front of him, or if he had more than one good professional year, then maybe.
Eakin is at least a few years away and doesn’t project out to be much more than a third liner at best. I will gladly trade you a potential third-liner three years from now for a good PK-ing 4th line center today.
While I think that Gordo’s skillset isn’t terribly hard to replace, I’m also not entirely convinced that Keith Aucoin couldn’t come up and do a decent MP impersonation.
At this point, we’re just splitting hairs. I like MP, but I think that he’s in danger of ending up in the Chris Bourque zone as far as the organization is concerned, and his value is therefore lower for me. I’m also prioritizing this year, with the exception of guys that I think will be impact players within a year or two. Mackan is one of those guys, while MP, Holtby and Eakin aren’t. (For reasons of size, organizational depth, and age/development, respectively.)
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
We aren’t splitting hairs, we are fundamentally approaching the problem from different angles. I could care less what each of these players will do this year. Bradley and Gordon could come down with SARS and be forced to retire tomorrow and I wouldn’t bat an eye. Those guys are always 100% replaceable at very low cost. You can keep raising the PK issue, but it’s not a winning argument because our PK will stink regardless. The guys that might have top 6/4/1 potential are more important to me right now.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
For someone who frequently points out the flaws in the play of the forwards on the Caps’ PK, you’re pretty quick to call those guys replaceable. Steckel I can agree with, but Gordon? Like it or not, he’s the best the team’s got on the fourth line in terms of killing penalties. I don’t really think there’s too many penalty killers as good as Boyd Gordon floating around out there unsigned and cheap.
Mind you, the injury history is always the caveat with Boyd.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 31, 2010 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions
An injury prone faceoff specialist that excels on the PK? How about Blair Betts? Those guys are always more abundant than the home fans think. My complaint with the PK has always been the system, specifically how the forwards are used. I think we’ve always had more PKing talent than PKing success under BB.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
The guys that might have top 6/4/1 potential are more important to me right now.
I don’t think MP has top-6 potential, and I think the organization sees him the same way.
Eakin projects out with a ceiling as a 3rd liner.
Holtby had a great year last year, but he was playing behind a phenomenal team and he’s got two guys clogging the crease in front of him. He might have #1 potential, but on another team. And goalie prospects traditionally don’t bring back much in trade.
A healthy Gordo improves our PK. I agree that he’s replaceable by guys like Betts, but right now, we don’t have Betts on our roster and I don’t see any of Eakin/MP/Holtby being impact players anytime soon.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Aug 31, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You can crap on MP all you want because your boy CBo couldn’t hack it, but at the end of the day if MP makes the league it will have to be in a top-6 role. The fact that the organization still has him suggest the exact opposite of your conclusions. There is simply no chance they are hanging on to him to turn into a bottom 6 guy. It’s a long shot, but he has the actual skill to play with other skill guys. We’ll see if his size is too much of a detriment.
Holtby’s value may not be high right now, but just the fact that he has potential number 1 skill makes him more valuable.
Betts and Asham were available until very recently. No, neither are on our roster, but my point is that those guys are all around. If we lost Gordo (and the fact that you even have to qualify it as “a healthy Gordo” suggests it will be the case) the team won’t have much trouble replacing him, whether it be from within or outside the organization.
Eakin/MP/Holtby may not be impact players any time soon, but they might be. Gordo and Brads will never be impact players.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
but at the end of the day if MP makes the league it will have to be in a top-6 role
Which is exactly why I don’t think he’s going to make it. Bourque had/has the potential to be a bottom-6 pest who could fill in on a scoring line. I don’t think MP has that same potential. He’s top-6 or bust, and I think that means he’s done in this organization.
The fact that the organization still has him suggest the exact opposite of your conclusions.
No. The fact that the organization still has him suggests only that he’s still under contract. CBo, on the other hand, is an RFA who likely didn’t get tendered the contract he wanted. MP’s only advantage is that he plays a position of relative weakness, but with the drafting of Kuznetsov, and the rapid rise of Johansson, I don’t see MP ever getting that top-6 shot.
The more telling thing about MP is that the team has continually tried to draft a #2C. AnGus, Mackan, Kuznetsov and Galiev all speak volumes about what the organization thinks of MP.
Holtby has one decent professional season playing behind a phenomenal team. He might have #1 skill, he might not. Next year will be more telling.
Betts I can buy, Asham, not so much. The guy is a goon with passable hands. I’d rather have Zenon Konopka – he can at least take draws and kill penalties.
Eakin/MP/Holtby may not be impact players any time soon, but they might be.
That depends on how you define “impact.” Eakin projects as a 3rd liner in a few years. I don’t think that possible future value is worth as much as Gordon’s present value. MP will likely spend most of this year in Hershey and I don’t think he’s got a great future with the organization, given their draft pattern (three first-round picks in a row spent on centers). Holtby is blocked.
As replaceable as Gordo may be, prospects who project out to 3rd liners, or guys that an organization seems to be disinterested in, or the third-best goalie in an organization, just aren’t that valuable.
I like MP, and I love watching him play and I think that some team should give him a legitimate NHL shot. I just don’t think the Caps are going to be that team. If we’re very lucky, Eakin might be a Todd Marchant clone in a few years. A nice piece, but not irreplaceable.
Holtby is a wildcard, but my guess is that one of the three young goalies is shipped off within a year or two.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I don’t think you can read anything into what the Caps think about MP just because they have drafted Cs. Does drafting John Carlson impugn Mike Green? They always say they take the best player available and that’s been consistent. To say that they took all the other potential 2Cs because they don’t think MP can hack it is speculation at the extreme.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Cough (ANGUS), cough.
They can say what they want about taking the best player available, but three drafts and three centers in the first round (accompanied by no small number of them in later rounds) speaks volumes in my opinion. The rumored signing of Belanger is also indicative of their opinion.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Belanger is indicative only of the fact that they don’t think they are set at C this year, which I agree with. I think MP has more talent than CBo has, and I think he could end up being a viable NHL 2C. I haven’t seen anything that makes me think the Caps disagree. Is he a lock? No, but that doesn’t mean the Caps are already counting him as dead and are just keeping him around because he’s signed. They’ve given up on other players in the past and MP hasn’t been treated like that. The fact that they haven’t even tried to make MP play wing, a position that a lot of people think he’s better suited for (and one where his size would be less of a disadvantage) speaks volumes to me about how confident they are in his C ability.
The team has drafted a bunch of Cs lately, but a lot of them have been C/W hybrids and I don’t think that’s reflective of MP at all. Hopefully it’s reflective of the fact that C is a position where you can never have enough depth, and that they had ignored it in the draft for a few years. But drawing conclusions about an individual prospect because of draft tendencies is highly flawed.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
But drawing conclusions about an individual prospect because of draft tendencies is highly flawed.
Draft tendencies tend to have a whole bunch of inputs, one of which is an organization’s thinking about its own players.
I’m not sure MP has much more talent than CBo, having watched both play a fair amount in the AHL. The stats seem to bear that out as well.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think MP will just be a guy who got fluky-hot for a brief callup.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
To be fair, though, how many players aside from goalies do that? Off the top of my head Duncan Keith and that’s it.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s a lot more than just Duncan Keith. I just think our Forwards are coached to be way too passive on the PK. None of them are really able to be defensive difference makers. We have guys like Semin that can take advantage of a turnover, but we don’t have a forward that is a stud PKer. The way it’s set up, I think our PK lives and dies on the D, and I think it’s too much of a burden for the D we currently have to be able to carry. Thus, our PK blows. If we get a goalie playing out of his mind we may be able to mask it, but until BB fundamentally changes his PK approach I think it’s going to be more of the same.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Are we talking system, or difference makers regardless of system? Semin and Backstrom and Gordon and Bradley and Laich are good PKers, but in terms of difference makers, the Caps don’t have any—nor does any other team in the league aside from Chicago.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d add the Flyers (Richards) and the Sharks (Marleau), but yeah…very few.
is it cold yet?
by bigonetimer on Aug 31, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
They are related. Our system kills our PKers’ ability to be difference makers, even if they have the potential (which I still doubt). Other teams, like PHI and CHI and SJS allow their forwards to be more aggressive and use their speed and hockey sense and puck skills. This allows their impact on a PK to be much greater because they are able to use their skills. Setting up the Fs at the top of the faceoff circles and waiting for the puck to get passed around doesn’t allow them to use what skills they do have. Our PK skill-set is essentially: stand in position, chase down a loose puck, win the battle, get the clear.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
But he’s not so good at PK that he makes it not a brutal weakness.
Our system kills our PKers’ ability to be difference makers
I think that’s an unfair standard, really, and you say so yourself. He was more or less the 2nd best PKing forward on the Caps, and the TOI he took means less PKTOI for Steckel and the skill forwards like Ovechkin (I think their puck possession would help immensely—like with Semin on the PK—but it’s too risky). Brads passes the eye and stats tests for me.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I say what myself? I’m just saying that our PK is about 80% with BB, and it hasn’t changed as a system. No matter who we put out there I think it will continue to be mediocre or bad. We’ve had Gordon and Bradley for years now and it hasn’t made our PK better, so I just don’t see the value. Sure, I guess it could be worse, but I don’t think our PK woes are personnel related, and I certainly don’t think Gordon/Bradley are the kind of irreplaceable PKers that would have that kind of value to me.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
To be fair, it wasn’t any better with Hanlon.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
And Gordon was a part of that as well.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Yeah, but there aren’t always good grinders available. Brads is a huge plus in the penalty delta department, PKs effectively (something the Caps are short on, for sure), does better than his expected finish in zone differential and pulls the rest of the fourth line up when he’s on the ice with them.
You can always find a guy who’ll skate 4th line minutes and get his nose dirty in FA, but Bradley’s skillset is less common.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Asham was available. He made 700K. I’d probably take Asham over Brads, but it’s moot now.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Brads’ ability to stay out of the box gives him the nod for me. He’s also a much better PKer.
Offensively, I’d give the nod to Asham though, and the difference isn’t huge. The 300k in salary is nothing to sneeze at, either.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Brads’ ability to stay out of the box is also part of the problem. Asham actually likes fighting, likes pissing people off, and is much tougher to play against.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
sure he’s replaceable, I wasn’t making that argument at all. I was just saying, when looking at guys relative strengths, Bradleys ability to PK effectively gives him an edge over other guys in terms of worth. That’s all I’m saying, as I thought I made pretty clear with the comment at the end:
I don’t think you neccessarily vote for him because he is "an excellent PKer", but the fact that he is one of the best PKers on the team increases his overall value to the caps.
I could have gone a number of ways. I could have been persuaded by a great argument for Gordo, Stecks, or Holtby, but I’d sooner trade any of them than MP85 at this point.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
Or if you look at it from a different perspective, should the Caps aquire a veteran 2C and MJ90 is solid at 3C, MP gives you the best trade value between the 4 of them.
One roster guy left off the list so far. Doesn’t a two-way player with cool glasses have enough value to get on the poll before we bring up all our players in the juniors?
"HISTORY DOESN’T MATTER!!! .... Who cares if it’s never been done? We aren’t those teams who failed before. We are in control of our own destiny, and we will make it happen our own way.." - A Gordon, June 2010
I guess his lobby has been strangely absent from the polls here. And he did have a pretty vocal lobby,
Rocking the Red since 1975
Lobby talk really should be nuked from the Rink orbit.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I’m going with Boyd Gordon. Solid penalty killer, just as good a faceoff man as Steckel, and he adds a reasonable amount of offense for his role. B. Gordon is paid 2/3 what Steckel gets, and in my opinion is the better player. And B. Gordon was solid in the playoffs. Obviously, the main problem with B. Gordon is his health, but all in all I’d rather keep him than anyone else on the list right now.
Kugryshev is probably a good prospect to list soon. He’s more likely to see a few games in a Caps’ sweater within the next few years than the solid AHL vets and possible NHL fill-ins Aucoin, Greentree, Nycholat, Willsie, and Sabourin. (I’m not sure I would rank AnGus above all the AHL vets at this point)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 30, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
A healthy back can trump all of that, I suppose.
"#DCU is like senior prom. A bunch of people standing around waiting for a 17-year old to score."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 30, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
DJ King...
It’s his turn here…. he makes it easier for the top guys on this list to maneuver…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
MP,
Holtby is getting close to his turn. Only problem is so little to work with as far as stats, but another young goalie prospect with a high upside for being in the nhl can be a great trade commodity, especially if – for w/e reason – one of the other two fall into disfavor.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Against the grain, I know, but while I love to watch MP play, I remain unconvinced he is an everyday NHL centerman. Holtby gives us the comfort to be able to trade a goalie prospect for a proven NHL center at the deadline, which I believe will happen this year.
My worry on Holtby’s trade value is that he may be a product of the system in Hershey, great team, great defense, etc.
I am not saying that it is true, just GMs could think it which would lower his value.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Actually, ,my guess is that Nuevy is the trade bait with Holtby as #2 in DC.
by Boodgiesdad on Aug 30, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t have enough knowledge to know either way, but wasn’t the lesson of this past post-season that the day of spending big dollars on a goalie was past? I would bet a lot of teams would be looking at an entry-level contract for a pretty good looking player with some interest.
Voted for Gordo. If he’s fully healthy, this one is a no-brainer. Established NHL vets are pretty much by definition more valuable than AHL guys that might or might not crack a roster this year. The only other regular NHL guy on the list is Steckel, and Gordon is better. (Note that DJ King and Erskine fail to reach the level of NHL regular).
The X factor is health, so I did give some consideration to Perreault, but between MarJo and maybe Belanger, there’s a pretty good chance he plays the bulk of his games in the A. And while the commentariat loves the guy, I’m not sure the rest of the GM’s around the league share the love, so I doubt his trade value is all that great.
Like all balancing tests, at the end of the day you just make a call and go with it. So Gordo it is.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
I would have gone with Gordo if I knew he’d be healthy. But Gordo played 36 games last season… he played well, but I think its easier to replace a 3/4th line center with durability issues than it is a decent prospect.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Aug 30, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Gordo
For pretty much all the reasons GOD listed.
I know he’s injury-prone, but I’m betting he plays more than 40 games with the Caps this year, and I think that’s more than MP will play with the Caps this year.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I didn’t vote for him, but you get a rec for the graphic.
"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov
by Scott in Shaw on Aug 30, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted for Holtby because I was partially blind and didn’t see that Boyd Gordon was still available. I haven’t been impressed by what I’ve seen out of MP so far. Not so sure he can make it in the NHL. When Gordon is healthy, I think he can contribute more. I’m 90% positive that Boyd Gordon was on my flight last night from Mpls to Reagan.
Per reports, he’s at Kettler this a.m. so that was prolly him.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
He walked past me quickly in the waiting area in Minneapolis and I thought it was him, but wasn’t totally sure. The flight was delayed so there was a lot of time to wait around. When he came back to the waiting area, he kept to the far edges and waited a long time to get on the plane, after most people had boarded. I didn’t see him talking to anyone, although he appeared to be avoiding it as much as possible. Surprisingly, he sat in coach in a middle seat. He had no carry on bags at all, only brought a book with him, but I couldn’t see what book. I sat about 8 rows behind him on the opposite side. He got off the plane before me, so I saw him exiting the restroom as I was entering. I headed to the metro after that and didn’t see him again, so that’s the end of my stalker report.
by vtcapsfan99 on Aug 30, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
You should have said hi, it probably would have made his day to know there are fans who would recognize Caps not named Alex in street clothes.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Aug 30, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would of considered it, if he hadn’t been hiding around the edges of the waiting area. He first walked by me very quickly as I was lugging my carry-on so no time to say hi after I processed the fact Boyd Gordon was walking by me in Minneapolis. I did look around for him after that to confirm it was really him. I figured that he probably didn’t want to be bothered or recognized since he was standing away from everyone as much as possible and waited to board the plane. I just remember the video Mike Green took of him and Ovie in the press box the past season along with Boyd Gordon and he seemed so awkward when they asked him to say something to the fans.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 10:06 PM EST)
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