Summer in the Southeast Division
by David Getz on Aug 30, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
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PrintWith the vast majority of the summer's transactions complete, and rookie camp just around the corner, it's time to start thinking about how things are going to shape up in the regular season. For the Capitals that means, in part at least, thinking about their Southeast Division opponents. With that in mind, we thought we'd take a look at the moves made in the Southeast in the last few months, and how they might play out in the 2010-11 season.
Follow the jump to read who's in, who's out, and what it all means.
Atlanta Thrashers (35-34-13, 83 points, 2nd in the Southeast, 10th in the Eastern Conference in 2009-10)
Acquired: Dustin Byfuglien (trade, Chicago), Ben Eager (trade, Chicago), Andrew Ladd (trade, Chicago), Chris Mason (UFA, St. Louis), Freddy Meyer (UFA, Islanders), Patrick Rissmiller (trade, Rangers), Brent Sopel (trade, Chicago)
Lost: Colby Armstrong (UFA, Toronto), Evgeny Artyukhin (UFA, unsigned), Slava Kozlov (UFA, unsigned), Pavel Kubina (UFA, Tampa Bay), Clarke MacArthur (UFA, unsigned Toronto), Marty Reasoner (trade, Chicago)
Bottom Line: The Thrashers weren't all that bad a team last year, especially considering they wound up having to deal Ilya Kovalchuk at the trade deadline and never really settled on a number one goaltender, and they've made moves to strengthen their team this offseason. The infusion of grit and big bodies from Chicago should make the Thrashers hard to play against, and adding Chris Mason as a free agent will let the team play Ondrej Pavelec as his performance warrants, rather than just because he's the best option. There might not be any elite forwards on the roster, but the group is well-rounded, and the team sports the divisions best top-to-bottom defense corps.
Carolina Hurricanes (35-37-10, 80 points, 3rd in the Southeast, 11th in the Eastern Conference)
Acquired: Anton Babchuk (free agent, Avangard Omsk), Joe Corvo (free agent, Washington)
Lost: Rod Brind'Amour (retirement), Brian Pothier (UFA, Genève-Servette HC), Ray Whitney (UFA, Pheonix)
Bottom Line: A disappointing season for the Hurricanes can be blamed somewhat on injury and/or underperformed from a number of key players including Eric Staal, Erik Cole, Tuomo Ruutu, Rod Brind'Amour, and Tim Gleason. Nonetheless the Hurricanes still entered the offseason with a roster with pretty significant holes and didn't add any major pieces. It's possible the 'Canes could see some of their guys rebound, 2009-10 breakout players like Jussi Jokinen and Brandon Sutter keep improving, and the team makes some noise in the Southeast, but it's just a possible another mediocre season's in the cards.
Florida Panthers (32-37-13, 77 points, 5th in the Southeast, 14th in the Eastern Conference)
Acquired: Steve Bernier (trade, Vancouver), Christopher Higgins (UFA, Calgary Flames), Nathan Paetsch (UFA, Columbus), Marty Reasoner (trade, Chicago), Dennis Wideman (trade, Boston)
Lost: Gregory Campbell (trade, Boston), Nathan Horton (trade, Boston), Keith Ballard (trade, Vancouver)
Bottom Line: Having moved out Jay Bouwmeester and Nathan Horton in the two previous offseasons and installed Dave Tallon as the new general manager, the Panthers are (again) fully in rebuild mode. Tomas Vokoun is enough to ensure the team won't be an automatic win for opponents in 2010-11, but it's hard to imagine the Panthers finishing anywhere other than at or near the bottom of the Southeast; likely as a lottery team to boot.
Tampa Bay Lightning (34-36-12, 80 points, fourth in the Southeast, 12th in the Eastern Conference)
Acquired: Sean Bergenheim (UFA, Islanders), Brett Clark (UFA, Colorado), Chris Durno (UFA, Colorado), Dan Ellis (UFA, Nashville), Simon Gagne (trade, Philadelphia), Pavel Kubina (UFA, Atlanta), Dominic Moore (UFA, Montreal), Marc Pouliot (UFA, Edmonton), Mathieu Roy (UFA, Florida)
Lost: Brandon Bochenski (UFA, Barys Astana), Todd Fedoruk (UFA, free agent), Kurtis Foster (UFA, Edmonton), David Hale (UFA, Ottawa), Zenon Konopka (UFA, Islanders), Andrej Meszaros (trade, Philadelphia), Antero Niittymaki (UFA, San Jose), Alex Tanguay (UFA, Calgary)
Bottom Line: New general manager Steve Yzerman has had an impressive offseason, unloading Andrej Meszaros contract, letting tough guys Konopka and Fedoruk walk, re-signing Martin St. Louis, bringing in under-the-radar free agent, adding another offensive talent in Simon Gagne, and nabbing highly sought after head coach Guy Boucher. The Bolts unquestionably have more talent heading in to the 2010 season, but how long is it going to take to get roles sorted out with so many new faces and a new system?
Washington Capitals (54-15-13, 121 points, 1st in the Southeast, 1st in the Eastern Conference)
Acquired: D.J. King (trade, St. Louis)
Lost: Eric Belanger (UFA, unsigned), Joe Corvo (UFA, Carolina) Milan Jurcina (UFA, Islanders) Shaone Morrisonn (UFA, Buffalo), Jose Theodore (UFA, unsigned), Scott Walker (UFA, unsigned)
Bottom Line: Change, at least to some degree, is afoot in Washington, as Jurcina, Morrisonn, Walker, and Theodore were let go, presumably to be mostly replaced by prospects within the organization. What exactly that means remains to be seen; one on hand you have to figure guys like Karl Alzner, John Carlson, and Michal Neuvirth have higher upsides than the players they're replacing, but the youngsters also come with a lot more uncertainty. Right now it's hard to definitively say whether the Capitals will be better or worse given the inherent uncertainty surrounding the young players who are going to get regular ice time with the team. On paper, they're almost certain to be worst - don't expect 121 points again. But it's also possible they could fall well short of that mark and be a team much more likely to succeed in the postseason, in which case they're a much better team than they were in 2009-10.
---
When all is said and done, here's how we see the offseason's impact on the Southeast:
Trending up:
Atlanta Thrashers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Trending down:
Florida Panthers
More or less the same:
Carolina Hurricanes
Washington Capitals
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Tough call, but Tampa made the best signing of anyone in the Southeast, and he’s not a guy that will be on the roster. That was a huge move, one that will pay big dividends this year, and going forward.
Atlanta and Tampa are going to make the “southleast” much more interesting this year.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
One nitpick....
Clarke MacArthur is signed per Capgeek, by Toronto.
That said – Tampa bay, no question. I’m with iwearstripes – even if they’re still not the best this season, they’ll be dangerous going forward.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Someone beat me to MacArthur… ah well. :)
The Bolts did the best in the offseason in adding Ellis, Gange, Kubina and Moore. These are decent depth players, and as we all know the Bolts have some top notch talent (St. Louis, Vinnie and Stamkos).
Atlanta added some character guys and while a lot of them came from Chicago’s Cup winning team, none of them are named Kane, Toews, Hossa, or Keith. Still they do help.
The Caps may have a move left between now and training camp, but even if they go with what’s coming from the farm system, the farm has been pretty good (three minor league championships in the past 2 seasons).
I have no idea what is going on in Florida…that said, Dale Tallon put together a heckuva team in Chicago and given time, he can do that in Florida…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
Has something changed to the point where the Rink no longer thinks Eric Belanger is signed by the Caps? Or was he just left off because there’s been no official confirmation?
I definitely think Tampa Bay has improved itself this offseason way more than any other Southeast division team. If you looked at their roster before, you’d notice two things: beyond their top six, they didn’t have any decent forwards, and beyond their top two, they had no decent defensemen. They’ve significantly improved their depth this year, and as their draft picks start to mature, they’ll have even more depth at those positions.
Atlanta could be a lot tougher to play this season, but I have the feeling that they’re going to be a hard-nosed, grinding team that will grind out a significant number of wins but still fall short of the postseason. Think of them as a slightly better version of the ‘09-’10 Islanders.
Tough call between TBL and ATL as far as Most Improved goes, but I went with ATL.
TBL brought in Gagne, which is higher end talent than anyone else in the division brought in, Kubina, who is flawed, and Ellis, who is a bit of a reach at #1, and then a bunch of journeymen.
ATL brought in several role players that are legit NHL guys. Not the high end talent that the ’Ning got, but much more quantity in the solid middle class tier.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
I say Washington Capitals for one reason
Nicklas Backstrom for 10 years, the addition of him makes our team much improved for the next decade, and is better than any player other teams acquired. We can now say we’re going to be rooting for 19 and 8 for the next decade, that’s much improved than just one more year.
Maybe it’s a stretch, I rather vote for the Caps than the Lightning or Thrashers. If the Caps are out because we didn’t add much and I had to not consider Downie etc., I’d say the Lightning because of Yzerman and Gagne.
I chose the Caps for the same reason—the signing of Backstrom. And because making no UFA move may turn out to be the best move.
"I’m very happy to hear the news," Ovechkin said when he heard about Backstrom's longterm contract--"because he’s one of the top centers in the world, one of my best friends and we want to play together for a long time. He’s a guy who wants to stay in one place and be comfortable and win, just like me. We talk all the time about playing together, and we talked after the playoffs about how we can win in Washington."
by capsyoungguns on Aug 30, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I may be dreaming, and am a bit worried about all of our guys with less than 82 games under their belt but is there any reason to think that our core roster will be better than last year. Other than Knuble and Poti, who are at the age where next year is worse than this year, everyone else on the team will be one year better.
It may be better to think of the Caps as a college basketball team going into next year than a pro team due to our lack of signings. Where everyone is a year improved and there are a couple of star freshman (rookies) breaking onto the team. It is a formula that works in college basketball every year, the question is can the caps be a seasons worth of experience better
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
along the same line of reasoning
Carlson and Alzner should be added as off-season additions. Its a foregone conclusion they will be in the ice opening night despite pre-season performance.
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
The Southeast title is no longer promised...
All these new signings look great on paper, but how the players operate together is a different animal. I think what Stevie Y did in TB is amazing. Perhaps the best looking first and second line in the East. Even the signings by Florida and Atlanta are a bit intimidating. With all due respect, to be unbiased I really think the Caps should be in the Trending Down Category, where as the Panthers should maybe be moved out. I mean how can you lose five veterans (three on Defense and one in goal), replace them with kids (very good kids, mind you) and say that the team is More or less the same?
Theo isnt an NHL level goalie as GMs in the league have voted so far. Losing him makes the team better.
Pothier is also no longer an NHL level guy. GMs have also voted that way.
Sha Mo is a legit loss, he would be the between the 4th and 6th best D on the team. He wasnt worth the money he got but he would help the team.
Corvo was a rental and the caps were no better with him than without him
Jurcina didn’t play when we had him whether he was injured or not
Everyone else is a year wiser and better other than Poti and Knuble who are just a year wiser.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Didn’t Theo put up career numbers last year??? I think his agent may have been pricing his client out of potential jobs……but I think Theo lands an NHL gig this year. You have to agree that Pothier is still better than what the Caps have as their 7th and 8th choices. I think these are money issues, not talent or drive issues.
To correct myself….last year wasn’t Theo’s career year…..but certainly his best showing in about a decade.
Theo’s 01-02, 03-04 and, arguably, 07-08 were all better than last year.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
That’s fair.
I was thinking more of winning %. But you are correct, he had better overall goaltending numbers in those years.
to be fair, two of those years were dead puck years, and the third was behind a team that was far more defensively minded than either Caps team he played on. I’d be surprised if any goalie could jump into the Caps system and not see a drop in their numbers.
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
He was better last year than the year before that but still had #s that put him in good backup goalie range (23rd in s%, 32nd in gaa) or bad starter.
Combine that with being pulled after each of his last 2 playoff series, a total lack of upside (on account of not being young), and there being no reason to think that next year would be any better than 2008-2009 (36th in GAA, 40th in s%) and I see him as a borderline NHL goalie in a cap constrained environment that gives a lot more weight to having your backup goalie being a young guy on an entry level deal over a vet who you have to pay more for the same performance and less upside.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
At $4m, he’s borderline. At $1.5m, he’s a pretty good deal.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Agreed. I guess it would be hard for someone to accept taking a 70% pay cut though. I didn’t hate Theo, yet wasn’t sad to see him go….I guess I just don’t see how having two question marks in goal is “more of less the same”.
Turco made $5.4m last year and is making $1.3 this year. It happens.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
For sure. If the choice is making 1.3 mil or leaving the league, that’s an easy decision. 1.3 million to the good in that scenario.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Because there is a question mark in goal with or without Theo.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 30, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, but the Caps don’t need crazy numbers from their goalie – they will make the playoffs with average goaltending. They need reliability in the playoffs, and on that front Theo was absolutely a question mark (at best – you can say he wasn’t a question mark because he has proven to be unreliable in the playoffs for the Caps).
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 30, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
There was a question mark in goal all last season with Theo. Same with the year before that.
I would wager that the team save % is higher next year than it was last year.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
How much? Because I want a cut of that action.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re on for a beer.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If that doesn’t mean rockstar wants in, I’ll take 2 beers
by Marcus Joheezy on Aug 30, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
At ESS Theo stopped 92.4%, same as Martin Brodeur. Neuvirth was a shade higher, and Varly was 92.9%. Granted, that is one season, but those are pretty solid save pcts. The improvement will have to come on the special teams, especially PK.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
But everyone knows to expect from Marty.
Same can’t be said of Theo who was admittedly streaky and his numbers would of looked a lot worse if not for his awesome streak at the end of the season. Not to mention back to back years of 1 and out appearances in the playoffs.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
That was basically in response to “our goalies will be a lot better.” On average Theo was pretty good, and Varlavirth was even better. It’s tough to top that.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Our goalies were very average level last year.
We gave up the 16th most goals against on the 18th most shots in the league. Seems average to me with an average workload.
Room for improvement or room for decline…
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
At ES, the Caps got absurdly high save percentages. They got destroyed on the PK, so it kind of averaged out. I expect the PK to not improve much unless the system changes (I’d be so happy to be wrong about that) and the ES % to regress some. I’m pretty sure I’m on the winning side of this bet the majority of the time.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Given that shooting percentage, and its inverse, save percentage, can be highly variable from year to year, is it not possible that some of the Caps’ terrible PK performance last year was simply bad luck?
I hate the system we had in place, but the team definitely seemed to give up some downright dumb goals at times. A handful of those stay out of the net next year, and the PK climbs up over 80%. Not great, but respectable.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
It’s kind of been five years in a row. I’m not optimistic it’ll improve much. A little, sure.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s definitely the case and even moreso in small sample sizes like PK. I think the Caps did have some bad luck there, but they also had astoundingly good luck at ES.
I’m not a lock to win this bet, but I think I’m in the right more than 50% of the time.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 30, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Atlanta
While I really like TBL’s moves, I think Atlanta had further to climb and will likely see a larger improvement in terms of points. Dan Ellis is a nice pick-up, but I think ATL will have a better overall goaltending tandem with Pavelec and Mason.
Also, I’m kind of mentally including Atlanta’s deadline acquisitions in the Kovlachuk trade. A full year of Bergfors and Oduya, and the possible addition of Cormier could greatly improve their place in the standings.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I think it’s closer if you include the ATL deadline acquisitions, but as far as purely the offseason I have TBL.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I think part of my opinion is also based on the fact that Tampa made similar moves the last two offseasons and looked primed for improvements that never materialized.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
True, I’m not sold on them turning the corner, I just think adding Gagne and Kubina while managing to unload some dead weight (Mezzaros especially) is impressive. ATL picked up some real good depth players, but I don’t see them making much improvement on the “impact player” front, though Bergfors changes that a little if you count the Kovy trade.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Its a hard arguement because ATL definitely picked up some grit. Guys like Bfyuglien however really weren’t anybody until the playoffs came around, which can be looked at both good and bad. He was 17-17-34 in 82 games but come playoffs, 11-6-16 in 22. He more than doubled his production in the playoffs, which is superb and what teams want, but teams like ATL also need guys who can perform in the regular season to get them into the playoffs
And as far as that goes TB seems more legit. They’ve got a lot of raw skill in LeCavalier, St.Louis, Stamkos and now Gagne. But I’m also really curious about their goaltending. Ellis has been decently solid for NSH and they’ve still got big Mike Smith. Neither however are really noteworthy upgrades or the biggest names in the division as far as goaltending.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
At least FLA will have something to look forward to, though not the playoffs
I like what TBL have done this off season and think they may sneak in as a #7th or 8th seed. I think ATL will just miss this post season. And I think CAR and FLA will miss the post season altogether
A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 8:45 AM EST)
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