Capitals Rumor Math Check brought to you by CapGeek.com

by chockster on Aug 20, 2010 11:09 PM EDT

(Heavily re-edited as I had a daylong brainfart and timmyv38 reminded me that it's only a 23-man roster. Whoops. Did I ever try to forget about NHL hockey after last year or what? Heh.)

There are a couple moving parts going on with the Caps' rumored/pending signings and trade and something will have to give.

There's speculation that the Caps will sign Eric Belanger pending a trade, the Caps are looking to sign Canucks' defenseman Willie Mitchell , and now that Tomas Fleischmann trade has two scenarios.

Let's assume Eric Belanger signs for $1.85 million since he's apparently waiting for a trade to happen to bring him in.

Let's also assume that Marcus Johansson ($900,000) makes the team, but will be probably be trading car rides to Hershey with Mathieu Perreault ($716,667).

If Mack and Belanger join us, and the Caps trade Tomas Fleischmann for Edmonton defenseman Sheldon Souray, the Caps are in the cap hole by $231,000.

If Belanger signs and the Caps trade Fleischmann for Vancouver defenseman Kevin Bieska, the Caps have $1.4 million in cap space available.

Either way, the Caps cannot sign Belanger, have Johansson join the team, trade for either Bieska or Souray AND sign Willie Mitchell for let's say $2.5 million plus bonuses for both roster and salary restrictions.

The Belanger, Bieska plus Mitchell scenario puts the team at about $1 million over the cap, then you'd be forced to send a player down for roster limit. Sending either Alzner or Carlson down won't get you under the cap, and sending both down is possible and leaves you with an extra D men, but who wants to see Sloan and Erskine on the ice regularly? Johansson is your extra forward.

The Souray plus Mitchell scenario puts Washington at about $2.7 million over the cap when Belanger and Mack are with us.

Bonuses complicate the scenarios as Johansson could earn bonus money in his entry-level deal and I imagine Perreault also has some bonus potential. Would the Caps want to go into 2011-2012 with a bonus penalty? Even with winning the Cup, probably not.

How much would Willie Mitchell sign for? Teams are probably want to sign him much less than his $3.5 million salary he made last year due to his season-ending concussion. A $2.5 million I offered is still risky if beyond a Mitchell injury recover bonus, Johannson and/or Perreault, Alzer and Carlson, Varly and Neuvy all rack up bonuses on their entry-level deals.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement provides for performance bonuses for players who have played more than 400 games and in the last year spent 100 days or more on injured reserve list. They would have to sign a one year contract to receive the bonus.

Mitchell has played 585 career games and Jan. 17 was the first day after his concussion. The Canucks made it to the playoffs, losing to the Blackhawks on May 11, marking Mitchell down for 114 days on injured reserve.

Seeing how General Manager George McPhee has said he prefers short-term deals because they motivate players, look for that type of contract to be signed by Mitchell if he signs here. Though I would wager that Mitchell would be signing that type of contract anywhere. What would his base salary be and how much bonus money could he earn?

Other factors to consider is that we have a few players on two-way contracts, but sadly their names aren't Erskine, Sloan and King.

If McPhee wants most of what's out there, someone has to go with Flash, but it looks like the strongest possibility is the Bieska trade with having Belanger and Johansson or Perreault on the team. I'd still would want to shed more salary for some more breathing room, but then you get into a discussion of "is giving up Flash plus Erskine or Sloan for Bieska too much?"

What do you want to see happen?

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

Tweet Comment 34 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Who reported we would do Mitchell AND Bieska/Souray? That’s crazy talk.

My money is still on none of them, I bet Mitchell will get a better deal elsewhere.

Choking since 1985.

by macvechkin on Aug 20, 2010 11:38 PM EDT reply actions

Nobody reported a Mitchell and Bieska or Souray combo, but have to throw it out there as a possible combination. Crazy, yes, highly unlikely yes, but will someone asleep at the keyboard in a forum or someone who ranks rumors by levels of e, offer this as a solid proposal, probably. The math speaks for itself if the logic doesn’t.

by chockster on Aug 20, 2010 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

Souray already passed though waivers. I feel like there’s almost no way we take on his exorbitant salary for this year and next

by dgreen on Aug 21, 2010 2:24 AM EDT reply actions

I think Souray-to-Washington is just idle prattle out of EDM. They are flat desperate to get rid of him; George is unlikely to trade an asset now for a player he could have had for nothing off the waiver wire last month. Souray is just a poor value based on where he would be slotted here. I can’t see George doing the Oil a huge favor like this.

It’ll be interesting to see what Gillis does now, with A Burrows on the shelf until perhaps December. It’s not as if VAN lacks scoring punch, but Burrows absence on the left side does open up a spot on a scoring line for someone like Flash. My speculation continues to be that when Mitchell decides, the other dominoes will fall.

is it cold yet?

by bigonetimer on Aug 21, 2010 2:33 AM EDT reply actions

If Vancouver looked to fill Burrows’ position with Flash (or someone similar) they are going to be very disappointed. While Flash undeniably has more skill, I don’t see him being as good of a fit with the Sedins as Burrows. Burrows plays the Knuble role, and will go to the tough places and make his living by driving to the net (as long as all that pest business). He thrives in the places that Flash fears.

The guy is Peter Schumpmaker. Lord knows what a schump is, but you can bet your bippy his ancestors made them. What he's doing is far worse than crafting fine schumps.

by Steckel Me Elmo on Aug 21, 2010 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Well put, and I agree. Speculation in the article was that Mikael Samuelsson would move up to the 1L for Burrows, but the second line centered by Kesler had the hole to fill. I could see Flash slotting there pretty well.

is it cold yet?

by bigonetimer on Aug 21, 2010 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I have to agree. Souray to Washington? EDM frickin’ wishes.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Aug 21, 2010 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Why would the Caps keep Belanger, Mackan, and MP all up? That’s three guys for 2 slots. If the Caps sign Belanger, EITHER MP or Mackan MIGHT stay – if Flash gets traded. The Caps have their 1st line set, 2 (or maybe 3) of their 2nd line forwards set, 2 (3 if Belanger is signed) of their 3rd line forwards set, and 4 forwards for the 4th line. That leaves space for 1 forward, if Belanger is signed and Flash is traded for a dman. The numbers up there are off and need to be adjusted for what positions the Caps need filled.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 21, 2010 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

Why would the Caps keep Belanger, Mackan, and MP all up? That’s three guys for 2 slots

DJ King isn’t going to suit up for every game, whether for injury history or skill set needed for each game. He makes less than Tyler Sloan and Sloan didn’t put in every night.

Boyd Gordon has played 63 and 67 games the past two seasons after a 38-game injury-filled stint, and gotta count for injuries that aren’t LTIR, too. If it’s not injury, there’s always a healthy scratch.

Bottom line, McPhee likes to keep one or two extra forwards and anything beyond that isn’t workable for the coach, players or on-ice chemistry. Counting Tyler Sloan as an extra forward, then numbers would have to be adjusted.

If you look on D, you would also have two extra D if it’s a trade. Alzner and Carlson are expected to be with the club, but there is still a chance that Carlson will spend some time in Hershey. We’ve only had a small, yet incredible, sample of his talents at the NHL level, but we’ve seen Alzner struggle his second year and be sent to Hershey combined with a roster jam. Sadly, we can’t just send Tyler Sloan or John Erskine down to Hershey without waivers.

All numbers are cap hits and not straight salary, btw.

Here’s what I was looking at with a Bieska/Flash trade plus Belanger.

From Random

by chockster on Aug 21, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble, Semin, Belanger, Laich, Fleischmann, Fehr, Steckel, Gordon, King, Chimera, Bradley. 13 forwards already. Mackan and MP make 15. I think McPhee would keep up thirteen, and if someone gets hurt call up MP or Mackan.

If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog (now featuring two Penguins fans as co-authors) and Twitter.

by red army line on Aug 21, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re still counting Fleischmann, who for the purpose of this post of evaluating the rumor, is being traded.

by chockster on Aug 21, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

You can’t have 14 forwards and 8 dmen. Add 2 goalies, that’s 24 – only 23 allowed on the roster.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 21, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

King isn’t going to suit up every game – which is why he’s the 13th forward. Sloan/Erskine won’t suit up every night – that’s why they are the 6/7D. Add one forward (after Belanger) and 1 dman, and you have 13 forwards and 7 dmen – which is what the Caps usually have. As I said, the numbers are off.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 21, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Here’s my take: the Caps will get EITHER Mitchell or Bieksa, and use EITHER Mackan or MP, as long as Flash gets traded and Belanger gets signed. Either MP or Mackan is going to be at Hershey (whichever isn’t used), and likely which that is will change during the season. The scenario you had above doesn’t make sense and isn’t even legal.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 21, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Image should say Belanger salary at $1.85M not $1.75M though, pushing cushion to $701k

by chockster on Aug 21, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions

Jesus, god, did I EVER F up! haha. I have no clue why I was trying to fit like 28 guys on a roster. I blame it on blocking out the NHL as much as possible for months and doing this in a rush. Guess that “someone asleep at the keyboard in a forum” is me! Love it.

by chockster on Aug 21, 2010 11:49 PM EDT reply actions

I think many of your points are still good. It does seem as though the Caps could get Belanger, either Mitchell or Bieksa, and then use MP/Mackan at 2C and be under the cap. How much under would it be exactly? That is assuming that Flash is gone.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I made up what I would see the lineup being if the Caps get both Belanger and Mitchell and trade Flash.

FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.800m)
Alexander Semin ($6.000m) / Mathieu Perreault ($0.716m) / Brooks Laich ($2.066m)
Eric Fehr ($2.200m) / Eric Belanger ($1.750m) / Jason Chimera ($1.875m)
Matt Bradley ($1.000m) / Dave Steckel ($1.100m) / Boyd Gordon ($0.800m)

D.J. King ($0.637m)

DEFENSEMEN
Mike Green ($5.250m) / Jeff Schultz ($2.750m)
Willie Mitchell ($3.500m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
Tom Poti ($3.500m) / Karl Alzner ($1.675m)

John Erskine ($1.250m) / Tyler Sloan ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($0.821m) /Michal Neuvirth ($0.821m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,298,463; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,951,537

A couple things. I dont think Mitchell will get the salary he has listed there (from capgeek.com), and I’m not too attached to how I have the defensive pairings. I would expect the Caps to have closer to $3M in cap space with this lineup, rather than $2M.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

Alternatively, here is a lineup where Flash was traded for Bieksa – maybe some picks or something involved, but no other players.

FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.800m)
Alexander Semin ($6.000m) / Mathieu Perreault ($0.716m) / Brooks Laich ($2.066m)
Eric Fehr ($2.200m) / Eric Belanger ($1.850m) / Jason Chimera ($1.875m)
Matt Bradley ($1.000m) / Dave Steckel ($1.100m) / Boyd Gordon ($0.800m)
/ D.J. King ($0.637m)

DEFENSEMEN
Mike Green ($5.250m) / Jeff Schultz ($2.750m)
Tom Poti ($3.500m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
Kevin Bieksa ($3.750m) / Karl Alzner ($1.675m)
Tyler Sloan ($0.700m) / John Erskine ($1.250m)

GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($0.821m) /Michal Neuvirth ($0.821m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,648,463; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,601,537

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ve been looking over Bieksa’s numbers, and I’m wondering why we would even want him. This season, in only 55 games, he had 85 PIM’s (which would have been good for 2nd most on the Caps), 59 blocked shots (which is a worse rate per GP than either Sloan or Erskine), and the 2nd worst +/- on Vancouver. He gets loads of PIM’s (77 is the least he’s had in a season, and that was in 39 games) and doesn’t produce a lot to make up for it. He’s had 11 and 12 goal seasons, but that’s it. Honestly, I think I’d rather have Erskine. He might not be as good, but he doesn’t seem to have as much of a downside.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Erskine’s downside is way, way worse than Bieksa’s. Bieksa’s PIMs are inflated because of fighting and generally ornery play that tends to not create PPs for the other team, so I don’t have a problem with that. 11 and 12 goal seasons (along with 40+ points) are nothing to sneeze at from the blueline – the Caps’ 2nd highest scoring Dman had 24 points. I don’t put much stock in blocked shots – after all, you have to be stuck in your own zone to block shots. Bieksa is a far better skater than Erskine, and has better hands and a better shot as well.

Bieksa’s numbers and play have suffered a bit the past couple years from some freak injuries (who gets sliced in the calf twice?), and he does have some defensive brain farts, but there is literally no situation in which I’d rather have Erskine (or Sloan) out on the ice instead of Bieksa.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Aug 22, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Ah… didn’t know his penalties tended to be that way. Looking at some of Vancouver’s games, I can see how that’s inflating his PIM’s. For example, Nov. 10, he had 22 penalty minutes – 2 fighting majors, 1 instigator, and 1 misconduct – but no PP for the opposing team. That’s rather impressive. And Nov. 3, 12 PIM – 10 from a misconduct, 2 from an unsportsmanlike conduct (which did give a PP).

My one question would be, how much use is he going to be if he’s spending that much time in the box and putting an extra load on all the other dmen? He might be an upgrade over Erskine, but I can see a lot of problems coming out of that.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

That may be an issue in a single game where he takes 22 PIM, but that is the exception, not the norm. And I can live with Bieksa putting extra pressure on the other 5 D for a regular season game if it means he brings some pain to the blueline.

It’s not like he is living in the box, and even with the PIM he still skates over 21 minutes a night compared to Erskine’s 16 minutes (and Erskine takes his share of PIM tood). So his ability to 1) play every game and 2) skate big minutes when he does play takes way more pressure off the D than Erskine does, even if he does have the occassional game where he’s rocking 15-20 PIM.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Aug 22, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I’m seeing your point. He wouldn’t be my top choice (as in I’d much prefer Mitchell), but his numbers are a bit misleading. Plus, a guy who will step up like that can be a decent deterrent to some of the pest-type players.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I would rather have Mitchell as well. But Bieksa is undoubtedly an upgrade for the Caps, even with his inflated salary (which is gone after this season anyway).

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Aug 22, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

He goes UFA after this season, correct?

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Correct.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Aug 22, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Trading Flash for him would leave about $1.6M in cap space, and that is including keeping Sloan up as 14F/8D. Leaves some space to work with, or more if Sloan is sent down. I could live with it. And if that’s gone after this season – that gets rid of one potential problem, when the time for raises comes.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

One other key stat I just looked at – Bieksa has had fairly good playoff production the last 2 seasons. In 22 games, he went 3-10-13, +5. And his PIM were barely higher than Green’s. Don’t know why I didn’t look at his playoff stats earlier.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 22, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

As far as throwing Erskine in on the trade, it would be well worth it to free up cap space and a roster slot so the Caps aren’t tempted to send Carlson or Alzner down to Hershey. Plus if they could pick up a draft pick or maybe a prospect for him, all the better.

by AhTimmah on Aug 22, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Let me start by saying that this was a great post with the salary break down but your own work tells you that all of these rumors accept for Brlanger were crap from the start. Why would GMGM pay to Souray or Bieska money he wasnt willing to pay better D men back on July 1st. Its Mitchelle or bust on D until the trade deadline for us.

by don95 on Aug 25, 2010 6:54 AM EDT reply actions

Looks like bust since Mitchell went to LA?

The Bieska rumor that floated out there probably happened for a couple reasons — Vancouver is over the cap, has(d) extra D men and Bieska is in the final year of his contract. So might as well trade one of our forwards who is on a one-year contract (Flash) and try to upgrade a bit on D. Is his price to high? Well, it’s not good when he has a cap hit a tad higher than Tom Poti.

Looks like that trade might not happen after a Sporting News report mentioning the possibility to retain Bieska because Sami Salo is likely out for the season and can be put on LTIR and Alexander Burrows is rehabbing a shoulder. Plus Mitchell left.

It’s what’s available in the market, too, at the price and contract length that’s available. If I had the time, I’d look at every defenseman with one year left on their contract at a workable number that could be exchanged for Flash. Then start assigning e levels lol.

by chockster on Aug 25, 2010 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

I think Bieksa is off the market now. The Canucks have 9 dmen, 1 of who (Salo) will be out for a significant portion of the season. They are only $158K over the cap if Salo is put on LTIR, and they could get below that by sending one of their minimum-wage players down. They will need to clear space later if they want to bring Salo back. The Caps might be able to find more options, but I don’t think Bieksa is one anymore.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 26, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m only seeing a handful of dmen with 1 year contracts who have a salary in the $2-3.5M range. I also am looking at teams who have 8 dmen listed – just because they would seem to be more likely to trade one of them. Ian White, Steve Staios, Hal Gill, and Jan Hedja are the ones I’m seeing. Not saying whether any are worth trading for – just listing those who fit a certain criteria.

Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.

by timmyv38 on Aug 26, 2010 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions