Sunday Caps Clips
Your savory Sunday brunch links:
- Brendan Morrison helped kick off the inaugural Tofino Saltwater Classic Fishing Derby the other day, nearly a month after he kicked off the third annual Brendan Morrison Needs A New Contract Fishing Derby. [CP, Westerly News]
- A few Caps-related notes in the Globe's weekly column. [BGlobe]
- Long-term contracts are bad. Except Alex Ovechkin's. [Gazette]
- A list of the best players still looking for work. [Garrioch]
- Lamenting hockey's deadest month. [Peerless]
- Controversy! Is today Pete Peeters' birthday or does he turn 53 on August 17? Whatever - we're wishing him a happy birthday today.
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You could make the argument without much effort that that the two best long-term contracts are right here in DC with Ovechkin and Backstrom.
The playoffs demonstrated that many of the long-contracted superstars disappeared, while the hungry, short-termed players stole the limelight and contributed significantly more to their teams’ success.
The Blackhawks had six players who were either playing on (Campbell, Hossa, Bolland), or had signed extensions for contracts of at least five years in length (Toews, Kane, Keith) before the SCF.
You could make an argument that it severely hamstrung Chicago’s personnel options this summer and going forward for the next several years, but they can ponder that while gazing into their rings.
If you've read this far...seek help.
I think you’d have to make a hell of a case against Duncan Keith’s deal. For a sub-6 cap hit, you’re getting the best defenseman in the league, barring Doughty making another gigantic step forward or Green putting it all together.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 10:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And Mike Richards’ deal.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Good call on the Richards deal, he brings a lot of value for that contract.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Concur
Both the Ovechkin and Backstrom represent a commitment on the part of the organization and the player to the franchise and fans. Both contracts were totally “fair and square” deals, without the silly nonsense envisioned in the Hossa and Pronger deals, and the “failed” Kovalchuk deal. This franchise is now one that players like – we have good ownership, a full building, and a great practice facility.
Enough said…..
AO’s isn’t a bad deal, but it’s probably the 4th best longterm contract. I’d rank them: Backstrom, Keith, Richards, AO.
Backstrom’s, IMO, is easily the best. He’s the only guy locked up for his all of his most productive years, at a bargain price, and not signed through any declining years. When he’s 32 we can reassess and decide if he’s still worth big money and long term. Keith is signed until 39, and while his skating and style may allow him to hold up, I still think it’s a bit of a stretch to imagine he’ll be worth his cap hit, and I’m sure he won’t be a steal at that price. That’s the kind of thing Nick Lidstrom did, and I’m not putting Keith in that company yet. Richards’ contract is a better bargain than AO’s and locked up until basically the same age as AO. Richards and AO both have a rugged style that makes me worry a little about how they will able to play after age 32, but given that Richards is much more of a bargain, I’d put his contract ahead. He won’t ever score like AO but he brings a lot more to the table and comparatively he’s dirt cheap. AO’s is fine and he’s the best player playing right now, but he’s not a bargain and he’s locked up for years that it would be highly unrealistic to expect him to produce to his cap hit.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
If revenues keep increasing, AO could be a bargain.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if he’ll reach bargain level, and if he does then Richards and Keith will be highway robbery. The cap should go up so that 9.5 isn’t the same percentage of the team’s cap, which will help. There will also be other players that make more than him, and most of those players won’t actually be better than him, so it’ll look better in that respect as well. But unlike Nick, and Richards, and Keith (though he’s a little different with the retirement years on the tail) I don’t look at AO’s contract and think we saved a couple million on what the free market would have given him.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Yup. He won’t ever be robbery.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And to be clear, that doesn’t really bother me. He’s getting paid fair money and he’s an insane talent. It’s just that in the context of best long-term contracts you have to consider the difference between cap hit and market value.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
By the prices that teams play for extra goals, AO is a bargain; he’s one of a couple of players who outproduce the maximum salary allowed right now. If the cap continues to rise, he’ll continue to be a bargain, even if he’s not the dominating player we’re accustomed to. Of course, this all depends on how fast the cap rises (it may not rise at all if these unemployment numbers don’t turn around) and how sharply Alex declines.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s an interesting angle of analysis, looking at payment/goal. The guy definitely gets pucks in the net so I guess that makes me warm a little more to it. But obviously Keith’s contract isn’t about him getting pucks into the net, and Richards is being paid for a lot of intangible stuff (or maybe he’s just not being paid for that stuff) so while it’s completely accurate for AO I’m not sure I’d want to use that analysis for the rest of these guys.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
The use of goal in this case applies to both directions, both for and against.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So Keith and Richards get equal credit for putting one in or keeping one out. That makes more sense. I’m skeptical as to how they really evaluate goals prevented but at least it’s a more wholistic approach.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I’m pretty sure that defense as measured by things like GVT is still undervalued in the stat community, so you’re right to be skeptical, at least in the sense that coming to exact values is hand-wavy at best.
Regardless, you can’t pay AO, Miller, and Crosby enough under the current CBA to match their contributions from last season by average dollars/goal from UFA or RFA contracts by the measures they’re using now. I’d bet the same was true of Lidstrom in his prime and of Prongermayer if you tweak defensive value up a bit.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, with the limit on how much cap space those guys can take up they will outperform any contract you could give them.
With D, I just don’t see how you can say that Duncan Keith kept that puck out of the net instead of one of the other 5 guys on the ice. There is just too much going on to be able to boil defensive contribution down without doing some seriously heavy lifting and coding play.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
It’s definitely the least clean and understood part of the stat-sphere. The ‘Hawks have some dynamite defensive forwards that definitely help out a guy like Keith, even if Niemi isn’t that good.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And in this kind of analysis, you encounter diminishing returns for your dollars pretty quickly, meaning each marginal goal is more expensive. It’s better to pay one forty goal scorer than two twenty goal scorers who are each half the price, because when you pay the one forty goal scorer you still have the roster spot to play someone else.
This is particularly true if you can manage to draft reasonably talented players who can contribute on entry level contracts.
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Generally, yeah. Of course, this assumes an efficient market, which isn’t always a solid assumption, especially with Sutter and Sather roaming the premises.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
In my mind, the inefficient market overpays the 20 goal scorers of the world even more relative to 40 goal scorers than it should.
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Particulars matter on the 40g guy; Dany Heatley isn’t worth his contract and in that case I’d rather have the pair of 20g guys for ~2.5 mil a piece.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Heatley’s being paid 7.5 M. If Heatley were at 5 M, he’d be worth that. Conversely, 3.75 M is too much for a 20 goal scorer.
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are right and it ties in nicely with a point D’ohboy made a while back. He talked about how many more 20 goal scorers than there are 30 goal scorers. Making that jump from 20-30 is very tough and that’s where the premiums should start, not at 20 goals.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I would suggest that if GMGM had a chance he would redo the Ovechkin deal. The one big negative is that the contract (if I recall correctly) expires when Ovie is 36. It would be preferable for the contract to have expired either when he was 34 and therefore an 11 year deal or at 38 and therefore a 15 year deal. If they sign a new deal then it will hit the cap for the duration. Of course, the rules will probably change in 10+ years.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Aug 1, 2010 10:28 AM EDT reply actions
It would be preferable for the contract to have expired either when he was 34 and therefore an 11 year deal or at 38 and therefore a 15 year deal.
I don’t get it. Why would these things be preferable?
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
At least under the current CBA, an end at 34 means they could then sign him to the retirement contract. Otherwise, maybe they should have signed him for 18 years?
Then again, three years ago people weren’t really looking at cap circumvention. The fallout from the Kovalchuk contract is going to be huge in the next negotiation.
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Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
Ah, I see. Yeah, who knows what the rules will be by then. I hope he’s at least receiving every dollar he contracted for.
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I wanted to know what the average age for the Caps was going to be this year but I also wanted to see where they ranked compared to the other teams. Below are the results in case you are interested. Of course some of these numbers will change a little since there are still a few teams with less than 20 players on their roster right now but at least you get an idea. No real surprises here although I didn’t expect the Caps to be one of the youngest teams next season.
1 Hawks - 25.94
2 Avalanche – 26.00
3 Blues – 26.05
4 Leafs – 26.10
5 Kings – 26.26
6 Hurricanes – 26.30
7 Caps – 26.43
8 Oilers – 26.45
9 Islanders – 26.82
10 Pens – 27.00
11 Wild – 27.09
12 Thrashers – 27.11
13 Jackets – 27.30
14 Preds – 27.33
15 Lightning – 27.37
16 Panthers – 27.55
17 Ducks – 27.62
18 Sabres – 27.68
19 Stars – 27.68
20 Canucks – 27.70
21 Sharks – 27.79
22 Rangers – 27.82
23 Canadiens – 27.85
24 Bruins – 28.24
25 Flyers – 28.29
26 Coyotes – 28.33
27 Sens – 28.38
28 Flames – 29.00
29 Devils – 29.71
30 Wings – 30.50
Lobbies: Green, Carlson, Orlov
Not shocked at all to see New Jersey and Detroit at the bottom of this list. Kind of surprised to see the Canes ahead of us.
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Me too at first because I think they were one of the oldest teams at the start of last season but keep in mind that they traded a lot of their older players before the deadline and also bought out Brind’Amour’s contract. The oldest player on their team right now appears to be Corvo at 33. There are a lot of young players that were in the AHL last season on their roster right now.
Lobbies: Green, Carlson, Orlov
What was the “age” of the Balckhawks last season? I imagine they got quite a bit younger after selling off so many players.
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Avg Age: 26.12
Below is a list of their 2009 roster and age (players who played at least 10 games with the team in the regular season)
Patrick Kane 21
Jonathan Toews 21
Niklas Hjalmarsson 22
Kris Versteeg 23
Dave Bolland 23
Cam Barker 23
Bryan Bickell 23
Troy Brouwer 24
Andrew Ladd 24
Dustin Byfuglien 24
Brent Seabrook 24
Colin Fraser 25
Jordan Hendry 25
Duncan Keith 26
Ben Eager 26
Antti Niemi 26
Tomáš Kopecký 27
Adam Burish 27
Andrew Ebbett 27
Patrick Sharp 28
Brian Campbell 30
Marián Hossa 31
Brent Sopel 33
Cristobal Huet 34
John Madden 36
Lobbies: Green, Carlson, Orlov
Interesting comments by the Globe on the All Star game and what it lacks. The writer thinks that the Winter Classic would be a better forum for the mid-season celebration. And would like it capped with Ovi running over the “potty-mouthed Talbot”.
Rocking the Red since 1975
eh. The ASG certainly has it’s problems, but I don’t think ditching it in favor of the Winter Classic is the solution. The ASG and it’s surrounding events it a rather laid back celebration of all teams and the game itself (however poorly executed at times). The WC is a regular season game between two teams (and given the two teams this year, it’s going to be intense). If I’m a fan of, say, Buffalo or Calgary, what am I really getting out of the WC if my team isn’t playing? Not much. Having done the ASG version of “Fan Fest” I can say it was pretty enjoyable in part because every team is represented. It’s a big “Yay hockey!” day(s) and it doesn’t matter if you’re the only Capitals fan in all of Minnesota—everyone is there to enjoy hockey. I really can’t wait for DC to host an ASG because I think all the extras are just really enjoyable (plus it’s a great excuse to skip work). I even find the skills competition strangely compelling.
The Winter Classic? It’s all about the two teams playing that game.
Watching the O’s try to use strategy is like watching Mike Green trying to figure out the difference between "your" and "you’re"--Terpgrrl
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
I’d change the ASG to include only players in their first 3 seasons. It would still mean something to them and a lot of serious talent is in that range. You’d definitely have a couple legitimate all stars so it wouldn’t be a total joke and maybe you’d see guys show a little more interest in it. You’re never going to get the passion that makes the game great because it is just a meaningless game but having more player interest would be good. Having guys beg out every year looks bad. Of course, not having Crosby or Ovechkin at the ASG looks pretty lame too, so if you are going to send them to market you may as well let them play.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Credit Doug Stollhand of Puck Podcast with this idea — I’d love to see the ASG include a “goon game.” It would pit the league’s top enforcers against each other, but they’d be able to play skill hockey and score some goals for once.
I think it’d be entertaining as hell.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you going to let them actually fight? That basically flies in the face of everything the NHL has done regarding fighting for over a decade. The league has been very squeamish about marketing that aspect of the game and a lot of people would seem to prefer if it was gone. It may be an entertaining idea, but it’s also a non-starter.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
No. You make it clear before the game that if anyone gets in a fight, that’s the last time they try this experiment. The idea is to show how good at real hockey the goons are, and to spotlight these guys as people.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s like the anti-all-star game. The worst players in the league matched up to play without the use of their only NHL-worthy aspect.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Exactly. I think it’d be entertaining.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
And of course it’s a nonstarter that Bettman would never allow to happen. But I’d love to see it.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
PPPPPPete!
I forgive you for that weak elimination game at MSG against Gmgm’s Rangers….urgh!!!
Rod Langway magically teaches Mike Green how to clear and check the opposition from his own defensive zone. Lets Go Caps !
by Mikko Leinonen's opposite on Aug 1, 2010 12:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I have the solution for Bruce and playoff success.
We’re at the Mets new Citifield stadium. Before the game they held the 2010 HoF inductees (my husband’s team since a very young age), and one of the inductees manager Davey Johnson said (paraphrasing here) that whenever he didn’t know what to do for the team he just turned on the radio.
I also took heart in fellow inductee D. Strawberry’s remark that he was drafted in 1980 to the Mets who were a terrible team but that under Johnson they became great, finally winning the world series finally in 1986.
This a beautiful stadium BTW. Great sightlines.
"I’m very happy to hear the news," Ovechkin said when he heard about Backstrom's longterm contract--"because he’s one of the top centers in the world, one of my best friends and we want to play together for a long time. He’s a guy who wants to stay in one place and be comfortable and win, just like me. We talk all the time about playing together, and we talked after the playoffs about how we can win in Washington."
by capsyoungguns on Aug 1, 2010 2:09 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
So before I link, can I get some thoughts on a hypothetical Kane/Keith → Orpik/Malkin trade?
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 2:58 PM EDT reply actions
PIT wins by a landslide.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Malkin’s not as valuable as Keith, and Orpik’s much less valuable than Kane.
Keith and Kane (~11.8 Million) make less combined than Malkin and Orpik (~12.5 Million), so Chicago cannot afford to do the deal.
But other than all that, I like the trade for Chicago.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So aside from giving up more valuable, less expensive players, it’s a great deal for the ’Hawks?
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah. Whooosh.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rec the self-whoosh. At least you caught it.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
There was a facepalm involved before I got around to typing it out.
But yeah, I don’t see any way that the ’Hawks win that trade…salary, talent, contract length, anything.
Or, to put what Gouldie said in algebraic terms:
Kane > Orpik
Keith > Malkin
So
Kane + Keith > Orpik + Malkin for all real-valued metrics. That’s a simplification, because there are definitely non-linear synergies in hockey, but I think it holds for this case.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if we’re as homer-ish about some of our own players.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i thought about this the other day
Please don’t hate me, but what about-
Semin + Flash +Draft pick for Malkin?
We get a 2C and replace semin’s scoring (and can perform in the playoffs)
The pens get a wing (cheaper) who has the same scoring ability as malkin and they need wings badly (already having staal to step in at 2C)
Am i just dreaming? OR! We can ask that they throw in talbot! (kidding)
I don’t see Shero and McPhee as trading partners, for one thing, but for another…
Malkin is signed through 2015, Flash and Semin are both signed through 2011. Even with the assumption that the Pens want to get rid of Malkin to make room for Staal at 2C (probably a poor one), I don’t see that bounty as anything like enough to bring a center of Malkin’s quality into the fold for that kind of term.
Shero’s wingers tend towards gritty and determined on the forecheck and along the boards; Alex Semin can be effective at that when he decides to be, but I’ve never seen anyone who could talk him into that consistently. Same goes for Flash, except a lot less skilled. Semin’d have to be signed to a reasonable long-term extension, which I also don’t see happening and even then, you’d need to throw in a decent roster player and a pick to make it work.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that it won’t happen, but I have one clarifying point. Shero is definitely a bit of a size queen and he loves that Brian Burke mold of forwards, but the Pens only have the “gritty and determined on the forecheck” reputation because that’s all they can generally afford. When possible, he will take skill in any form. Guerin, Fedotenko, and Ponikarovsky are not the “gritty and determined on the boards” type that you describe. Fedotenko has shown some balls when he’s had to in the playoffs and Guerin has always been a tough player but both of those guys have been skill first guys over their careers. The Pens may be talking to Kariya, and he’s surely not the kind of guy you described. I’d say all things equal GMRS would prefer the 6’3" power forward but it takes all types to build a team and there’s no one right way to do it.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Another question:
Regarding the tools analysis and active players, Lidstrom may have an 80 hockey sense and Chara is rated as an 80 physically. Any other active players with an 80 score in any category? I think you have to at least consider it with Kovalchuk’s shot, but I’m having trouble coming up with any other examples off the top of my head.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t even think Chara is 80 physically, but I guess I’ve been overruled. To me physicality is meaningless if you can’t skate. If Andy Sutton could skate we’d talk about him as an 80. Chara doesn’t move well enough for me to put him in that class.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I’m buying what you’re selling on Chara, I think Gouldie’s example of Scott Stevens was a much better 80 comparison.
Nieds retired, but I think you could make a case for his skating.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
this is precisely why I don’t buy into the “tools” analysis for hockey. Scott Stevens isn’t the greatest physical force in NHL history because of his size or strength — it was his hockey sense that made him so feared.
And what the hell is hockey sense anyway? Everything between your ears? Isn’t hockey sense the thing that lets Alex Semin get open to take shots? And doesn’t that mean Semin has great hockey sense, at least in one respect?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Stevens also had some of the most phenomenal balance I’ve ever seen. His ability to anchor himself to the ice is uncanny.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Which is the “skating” tool, right? Put Akebono on skates and see how well he does with his 80 in physicality…
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Semin has marvelous anticipation when he’s focused, both offensively and defensively. He makes some incredibly dumb decisions with the puck, but it feels like boom or bust with him. Definitely hard to rate.
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by Knee high to a duck on Aug 1, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
With the disclaimer that I really don’t care one way or the other, looks like Ted’s got a fighting chance to get the Prez to finally come to a Caps game this year (schedule says it’ll be Blackhawks on Sun March 13 for the game of the week).
President Barack Obama received a standing ovation from the Verizon Center crowd as he took his seat for this afternoon’s Mystics game just before tip-off against the Tulsa Shock.
Obama is in attendance with his youngest daughter, Sasha, and is sitting courtside with Monumental Sports and Entertainment chairman Ted Leonsis and Mystics managing partner Sheila Johnson.
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
Let me know when it’s slated to happen and I’ll sell my ticket.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Hey, if that’s the game, you can make some good money on that ticket.
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
Bonus. No silly nonsense + $$$ = mad win.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
by gotsparkly on Aug 2, 2010 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs







































