Mock Arbitration: Tomas Fleischmann
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 11:30 AM EDT
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Print[With Tomas Fleischmann heading to arbitration on July 28 (barring a last-minute deal), we thought it'd be fun to do a little role playing and guess at what that hearing might look like (with some minor procedural liberties taken). Of course, we aren't going to be throwing 40-page presentations at you, so think of it as a thumbnail sketch (we're also going to stick with a one-year deal parameter). J.P. will present the Caps' side, DMG will present the player's side... and you'll make the decision in the comments.]
Capitals Brief
I. Overview
It is beyond debate that Tomas Fleischmann is a skilled hockey player. He has improved his per-game goal and point totals in each of his seasons in the National Hockey League (NHL), registering career highs nearly across the board during the 2009-10 regular season and finishing sixth in goals scored on an offensively potent Washington Capitals team.
Those totals, however, fail to paint a complete picture of the player's season and career-to-date. In 2009-10, Fleischmann benefited from prime ice time (only five Capitals forwards had higher quality linemates at five-on-five), and yet scored fewer points per sixty minutes than teammate Boyd Gordon (a fourth-line center who finished the season with ten points). He was on the ice for more goals against per sixty minutes at five-on-five than any other forward on the team, which is why he ranked only 14th on team in plus-minus. And he had the worst five-on-five penalty plus-minus (penalties drawn minus penalties taken) of any skater who played at least half of the team's games other than John Erskine.
What is more important than aggregate numbers, however, is the trend regarding Fleischmann's durability and conditioning. For the third consecutive season, Fleischmann missed a significant number of games due to injury, and for the third consecutive season, Fleischmann's play tailed off towards the end of the season. In 2009-10, he closed out the regular season with just three goals and one assist in his last 13 games and now has just 15 goals and 27 points in 91 career games from March through May. The results have been predictable - come playoff time, Tomas Fleischmann hasn't been able to contribute, totalling just three goals and two assists in 22 career NHL playoff games (the same point total as fourth-liner Gordon over the same span), highlighted by a healthy scratch in the most important game of the Capitals' 2009-10 season. As the games get more critical, Tomas Fleischmann becomes more invisible.
And while some would seek to present Fleischmann as versatile, it should be noted that he was arguably the team's worst penalty-killing forward (considering his goals against on ice per sixty minutes at four-on-five and the quality of competition and teammates contributing to that number), and his 43.1% face-off winning percentage and lack of defensive responsibility rendered him largely unplayable at center. Fleischmann is versatile to the extent that he can center a line or kill a penalty poorly.
In sum, Fleischmann is a talented forward whose aggregate offensive numbers mask his significant defensive and disciplinary shortcomings and the the fact that he has yet to show that his body can withstand the rigors of an NHL season and still be relied upon when it matters most.
II. Comparables
Below are some of Tomas Fleischmann's career statistics, through 2009-10 (age as used herein is the player's age on February 1 of the given season):
And here are some statistics of like-situated (i.e. comparable) forwards through their platform seasons from recent seasons:
Perron has just completed his third season in the League and did not have arbitration rights when he signed his two-year deal that will pay him an average of $2.15 million per season. But the now-22-year-old wing had a strikingly similar 2009-10 season to Fleischmann, totaling three fewer goals and one less assist than Fleischmann in similar ice time, albeit for a far less offensively gifted team. Perron has also demonstrated a consistency and durability that Fleischmann has not.
The other side has made public mention of Plekanec as a comparable player, but his platform season was his third consecutive 20-goal campaign, his career-to-platform points-per-game are significantly higher than Fleischmann's (while playing in less-potent offensive systems), and, perhaps most importantly, Plekanec's playoff point production was an improvement over his regular season numbers (quite unlike Fleischmann). Based on consistency and post-season performances, Plekanec's one-year, $2.75 million is quite a bit higher than what Fleischmann can reasonably be expected to earn.
Higgins was a far more prolific goal scorer through his platform year than Fleischmann has been, and had similar assist and plus-minus totals, again on teams that did not score nearly as much as the Capitals have over the past few seasons. Higgins received a one-year, $2.25 million contract following his platform season.
Both Wellwood and Prucha had career-to-platform numbers that compare favorably to Fleischmann's, though both players were not on the same upward trajectory that Fleischmann was entering his platform year. Still, the lack of consistency those players showed through their respective platform years is not wholly dissimilar from that which Fleischmann has shown to date, and each of those players earned contracts paying them $1.2 million per season (Wellwood on a one-year deal, Prucha on a two-year contract).
III. Summary
Tomas Fleischmann is a complimentary scoring-line NHL left wing, despite attempts to play him elsewhere. His lack of defensive acumen, durability and discipline limit him to that stastistics-inflating role, and until he demonstrates that he can produce the same offensive numbers in the spring that he does in the fall and winter, he simply cannot reasonably command a salary in line with players on whom coaches and teammates rely in key game situations.
Fleischmann has improved as a player in each year of his career, and is fairly due a raise over the $725,000 he made in 2009-10. But he still has plenty of room to improve. The Capitals request a 2010-11 salary of $1,900,000.00.
***
Fleischmann's Brief
I. Overview
Tomas Fleischmann is a skilled and versatile forward who played a significant role for a President's Trophy-winning team which also dominated in the NHL in nearly all offensive categories. His combination of offensive and defensive ability, coupled with the fact that he is able to play in any role, make him the kind of player any team would be happy to have.
He is a fluid, agile skater, possesses soft hands, and aids his team both by scoring goals and setting up other players. Fleischmann was one of only 77 forwards to have at least 23 goals in the 2009-10 season, and only 90 forwards put up as many points. In short, from an offensive production standpoint, Tomas Fleischmann has shown he can produce like a first line player.
Of course, Fleischmann's talent are not limited to the offensive end. He is a strong enough defensive player that he was entrusted to play the center position in early January and recorded a plus-five rating for the remainder of the month, and posted a solid plus-nine rating on the year.
In fact, only 28 players in the NHL had at least 20 goals, 25 assists, and 50 points, and had at least a plus-nine rating last season. Some are the players you would expect to see on such a list - Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and Henrik Sedin - but players who came in at the low end of at least one of the categories include Tomas Vanek, Marian Hossa, and Jason Pominville, all recognized as excellent players themselves. The purpose in pointing this out is not to use these players are direct comparables, but to give an idea of just how rare a game as well rounded as Fleischmann's is.
This versatility was recognized by Fleischmann's coach, Bruce Boudreau, who used Fleischmann not only at all three forward positions, but in all situations. Fleischmann not only received more than 16 minutes of each ice per game, he also saw an average of 2:32 of power play time and 1:10 of shorthanded time each game, totals exceeded by only one teammate.
What's more impressive is the fact that Fleischmann achieved so much while playing in only 69 games, 15% fewer than a full NHL schedule, and was hampered by the aftereffects of a blood clot he suffered over the summer as the result of blocking a shot in the 2009 postseason. Considering this - and the fact that Fleischmann has increased his points per game each year in the WHL, AHL, and NHL - there's reason to think we have not yet seen the best Fleischmann has to offer.
II. Comparables
Statistics in platform year
Career Statistics through platform year
While we are aware that one-year contracts are preferable when drawing comparisons, we note that few players who are truly comparable to Fleischmann have signed one-year contracts in recent years, and that most players with his ability and experience negotiate multi-year contacts. Thus, though we present a number of players with longer contracts, we recognize the salaries of these players may be higher than a fair one-year contract for Fleischmann. One one-year contract - Colby Armstrong's - is presented for the sake of comparison, though it should be noted that Fleischmann exceeded Armstrong's platform year totals in goals, assists, points, and plus-minus while accumulating fewer penalty minutes.
III. Summary
Tomas Fleischmann is a highly skilled, versatile player capable of playing all three forward positions and in any game situation. He contributes to his team's success by scoring goals, acting as a playmaker, succeeding at even strength, on the powerplay, and in shorthanded situations, and by giving his coaching staff the option to move other players in to roles they are most comfortable with. In doing so, Flesichmann also contributes by allowing his teammates to be put in a position where they will be most successful - an important addition that does not show up on the stat sheet.
We believe Fleischmann is a clear-cut, well-rounded, top-six forward in the NHL and that a 2010-11 salary of $3,150,000 would be fair to both player and team.
[Now we turn it over to you, our readers, to play the role of arbitrator. What from the briefs do you find convincing? What don't you buy? Most importantly, how much do you award Tomas Fleischmann?]
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rec’d. nice work by both sides. lived up to lofty expectations.
$1.9 to $3.15 is a pretty wide gulf. any indication the actual numbers are this far apart?
Well, Tarik noted that the sides were “not close.” What size gap do you think is big enough that the sides wouldn’t meet in the middle to avoid the painful process of arbitration?
In all likelihood, the Caps are requesting more than $1.9m, but I wanted to make a point to stay under Fehr and Laich based on what each of those players bring to the team that Flash does not.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Oh, and I still say he gets a $2.9m award and that the team doesn’t even consider walking until their above $4m.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
So the Caps remain willing to swallow a fat ($3.5m – $4m) contract for one year and sort it out next summer? Is that the thinking here?
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the thinking would be, “Alright, we’re not tight up against the cap, the guy’s been continuing to improve his offensive numbers and we don’t want to lose an asset like that for nothing, so let’s swallow hard, take the hit and see where it goes from there.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think there’s no way on God’s green earth this things gets near a 4 at the front of the zeros. Do you say 2.9 because you’re a pessimist? Or do you feel that’s a truly reasonable expectation from an arbitrator?
I’m with Hooks—2.6, maybe 2.75.
DMG’s argument had too much fluff—fluid hands, soft skater, blah, blah—I think an arbitarator would see through that. And the argument that BB loves him…so what? I can’t believe that would cut much ice. Not saying that DMG didn’t do a fine job, just that it looks a bit fluffy.
Oh, and grammar Nazi says “they’re.”
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there’s no way on God’s green earth this things gets near a 4 at the front of the zeros.
Agreed 100%. I think $2.9m is on the pessimistic end of reality.
And awful typo by me… sleepy fingers.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
We’re talking about an arbritation board that just awarded Clarke McArthur $2.4 million. The pessimistic track is much advised.
Take that hearing with a grain of salt, as we don’t know how ardently the team fought in that one, given how quickly they walked, among other factors.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I've heard arbitration can be a very humbling process...
But when you have goons like Boogaard signing $1.6 million contracts for 8 minutes a game and lucrative arbitration awards flowing like milk and honey, one can’t help but think this off season is the Promised Land for UFA’s (who can actually find a suitor).
I agree with JP (great posting, BTW), but as much as I hate to say it, I don’t envision Flash getting anything less than $2.8 million because his agent has already shown us how much they’re willing to fight by making asinine Plekanec comparisons. I just don’t see GM GM stooping to that level of absurdity.
Oh, but how I would love us to give him $2,199,999.99 as an ever-present reminder to Flash that his one-dimensional game is less valuable on the ice (and in our hearts) than Fehr’s.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
Btw, F&B and I had a pretty good back-and-forth on this over here.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think F&B’s position on it is likely where I am (and thus, braced for a larger award). If the team used Fehr as a way to get a barometer (or even artificial cap of sorts) on Flash’s value, the next jump would be to say “Well, this guy got a threefold raise on one healthy year, and I’ve been increasing my production over both years of the extension I signed.”
$2.9m sounds good, but I’ll toss out $3.2m based on my flimsy little opinion.
And I thought Tom Soehn was a shitty coach.
by Bald Pollack on Jul 26, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
As much as it pains me to say it, I think Flash’s arb award will be right around the $3 million mark. From a casual glance, it just seem the arbitrators more often than not seem to favor the player vs the team. And a reasonable argument can be made that had Flash come into camp healthy and fully in shape, his numbers would have been much higher and there wouldn’t have been the tailing off at the end of the season. Agreed though that the Caps won’t walk from anything under at least $3.5 million. McPhee’s history is to always get something for an asset.
I’m expecting just north of 3 million. I think 2.2-2.5 would be more appropriate.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 26, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a tour de force, great work guys.
Judge Hooks rules: $2.6 million salary for one year.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
This fan would be pleased if we get Flash signed at $2.6m.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
This fan would be pleased if he was then traded.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Whom might you have in mind? Personally, I think the Caps might be better off keeping Flash on the roster. He’s proven himself to be an effective player, at least for parts of the season. Get a good idea of what the team’s needs might be come the trade deadline, and then possibly use #14 to help swing a deal for the home stretch.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t have anyone in mind. I’d have been happy to have him walk at this point. He helps in an area the Caps don’t need it in (scoring) and hurts in an area they could use some help in (keeping the puck out of the Caps net).
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
… and hurts in an area they could use some help in (keeping the puck out of the Caps net).
And winning pucks along the boards.
And staying out of the penalty box.
And performing in the playoffs.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I could live with his penalty rate if he’d draw some too, but he doesn’t do that at all.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
2.6 million for Flash?
It shouldn’t bother me, no. It shouldn’t- no, no. It shouldn’t bother me, no. It shouldn’t- BUT IT DOES!
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Jul 27, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec No More
If you speak at one constant volume, at one constant pitch, at one constant rhythm, right into Bruce’s ear, he still won’t hear.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 27, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You win a prize!
Not sure what yet. The pride of being on the button, at least.
by Stephen Pepper on Jul 27, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow. Well done.
I'm gonna pain you dearly Woodhouse, when I peel all your skin off with a flensing knife, sew it into Woodhouse pajamas, and then set those pajamas on fire.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jul 27, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I need to read the whole thing more carefully, but you really think his agent is only asking for 3.1?
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
I’ll let D speak more to this point, but I think it would take huge cajones to ask for more than that when they threw out Pleks as a comparable (and he was better and got a $2.75m deal).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Just wondering, seeing as how you’ve been throwing the 4 million number around as the breaking point, so I was wondering if you thought they might be looking for that. Also, wouldn’t you think they’d bring up that 2010 signings are running higher than 2009 signings? So a comparable player signed in 2009, take the contract and add some %. A real stretch, but I guess I was reading too much into your comments.
"It's always good to have vikings."
Proud member of the Oxford dictionary police.
I don’t think $4m is the breaking point at all – I think it’s higher. But I do think $4m gets ’em thinking.
And sure, a reasonable escalator on any 2009 contract can be expected.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
IMO, $4 Million is an insane number, really.
by S h a g g y on Jul 26, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Completely. My point is simply to emphasize my belief that there’s zippy chance the Caps walk away from a decision.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Shouldn’t part of the decision on what number to ask for be based on how much a player wants to remain with a team? Using McArthur as an example, he basically priced himself out of a job in Atlanta. If Flash’s agent asks for a number in the high $3 million and gets it, there stands a very real chance the Caps could walk leaving Flash without a team in an uncertain economic environment. Just ask Belanger if being a free agent is all it’s cracked up to be. I would think security and playing for a coach he likes on a winning team might be worth asking for a little less than optimum dollars.
It would depend on the Capitals’ plans for Fleishmann. If they’re waiting for award to swing a trade, then they’ll probably agree to a number in the low $3 millions. Given that Fleischmann’s agent threw out the Plekanec contract as a comparable, I really can’t see them asking for much more than $3 million.
Fantastic stuff. I would give him 2.4 but we all know he’ll get more than that.
Caps Snaps - Washington Capitals Photography
by cobracg on Jul 26, 2010 11:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed, well done by both sides. I too have to say that I will be fine with anything under $3M. If it is between $3M and $3.5M I will be nit picking everything Flash does this year. Over $3.5M and I can only imagine what this board and any other out there gets filled with.
plagued by penguins fans at work
One thing I would have pointed out as a member of the “team” side is that he scored on 19% of his shots this year. For someone whose game is not centered on having a big body that gets planted directly in front of the net, that’s a pretty high shooting percentage, which actually implies that Fleischmann’s goal totals might regress in the future.
I think 2.8 million would be reasonable for Fleischmann, especially if it’s a one-year deal. If he gets anywhere approaching Wolski money, though, I hope the Caps walk.
Wow, JP—extremely fair and even handed. I had the over/under for snarky veiled cheap shots set at 2 1/2. And that was for the player’s brief.
Well I can legitmately see Schultz Flash making almost $3 million and being a third pair defensemen line forward for this team. Bad allocation of funds.
And I thought Tom Soehn was a shitty coach.
by Bald Pollack on Jul 26, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone know where you can get a list of the arbitrator’s assigned to the hearings?
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Looking to send a pre-hearing message?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ha ha. No, if I was looking to contact anyone before the hearing it would be GMGM.
I was looking to see if it was going to see if it was going to be same one as MacArthur hearing. IIRC in past years they’ve has 3-4 different ones and rotated hearings between them.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
This may be a dumb question but I know in baseball the two sides give salary numbers and the arbitrator must pick either or. Is that the case in hockey? Or can the arbitrator rule in between? Or perhaps above?
I believe the two sides give a number, but the arbitrator can determine whatever number he wants based on what was presented at the hearing.
#savethekittens!
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
It’s absolutely the opposite here—the arbitrator can pick a number in between, whereas in baseball he has to pick one or the other. Above or below? Not so sure.
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Follow-up (related) theoretical question – which system is better?
On the one hand, if the arbitrator had to take either/or, you’d get sides with closer requests (lest they be unrealistic and have no chance at being chosen). On the other hand, a more Solomonic approach is available here. Thoughts?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I like the NHL system better, because even though theoretically in the either/or system you get closer requests, what happens when you don’t? If the arbitrator here had to pick between $1.9 and $3.15M, someone ends up more unhappy than if he ends up somewhere between $2.6-$2.9. What’s to stop the team from requesting $1M and Flash requesting $4.5M?
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
Thinking more, I answer my own question by saying that not knowing the other side’s number keeps the terms reasonable. Because if the Caps showed up with $1M and Flash showed up with $3M, they go $3M no doubt. But I still like the NHL system better. Flexibility is usually a good idea.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
Exactly – the MLB version encourages each side to make the “worst” request they could live with; the NHL version says go to the other extreme.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
In those terms, I like the NHL even more. You’re asking for a compromise between two best-case scenarios, which will probably leave both sides happier (happy words! compromise! best-case!) . With the MLB and both sides giving “worst-I-could-live-with” scenarios, that’s the BETTER of the two. If your “worst-I-could-live-with” scenario gets picked it means the other guys’ “even-worse-than-I-could-live-with” gets chosen and nobody’s really happy. If the number falls between the Caps’ and Flash’s number like we think it will, everybody at least feels like their concerns were heard.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
that’s easy—if the team is gonna request $1MM, then a savvy agent will go for, say, 3.8, knowing it’s waaay more than deserved, but closer to the true midpoint.
Baseball’s version has an element of “chicken” to it—how far from the real value do you wish to stray?
On a related follow-up to JP’s related follow-up, why does the NHL even bother to submit numbers, if the arbitrator is free to choose what he deems fair?
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d prefer Damoclean…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Baseball’s system allows for the amusing urban legend about the player that submitted a salary request that was lower than the team’s suggestion, so it’s got that going for it.
On the other hand, there is some utility in the (theoretical) flexibility allowed by hockey’s system. If the arbiters made use of it, of course. I don’t know enough about the process to know if they do or they don’t. On balance, I’ll cast my vote for hockey’s approach over baseball’s.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
….as well as the amusing urban legend where an arbitrator asked what an RBI was.
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Good briefs, gents. I was thinking about the oral argument — how in my opinion most arguments in an arbitration are useless because arbitrators have usually made a decision on the papers before you walk in the hearing room. And also that players often feel “hurt” or “attacked” by what happens in the hearing. So I drafted this argument, with the goal not of convincing the arbitrator to do anything different than he or she was already going to do, but instead directed to the player himself.
* * *
Let us speak openly about what is about to happen in this proceeding. There are some groups of players who consistently receive arbitration awards higher than they deserve, and there are types of players who consistently receive arbitration awards lower than they deserve. Some of that has to do with the restrictions on the kinds of evidence that may be considered in this forum, and there is no way to help that because we are all constrained by the CBS and the rules of arbitration. But another reason for it is that certain kinds of admissible evidence are easier to assess than others.
Put simply, players who score lots of goals and assists in the regular seasons but do little else get overpaid. Heart and soul players – players who play good defense – players who step it up in the playoffs are underpaid. Scoring is simply easier to assess. This arbitration is a precedent-based system, so the fact that scorers who put up big regular season numbers have received large salaries in the past means that Mr. Fleischmann will receive a large salary now.
Regardless of what salary within the proposed range this tribunal determines is appropriate for Mr. Fleischmann, if he accomplishes nothing more in 2010-11 than he has so far, that salary will be too much. There are certain things Mr. Fleischmann needs to do to earn his salary award, no matter the amount.
Mr. Fleischmann must become more defensively responsible. As the team’s brief demonstrated, Mr. Fleischmann’s defensive stats were mediocre in 2009-2010. If he is to be trusted against the best competition, he must improve.
Mr. Fleischmann needs to recommit to his conditioning. It is telling that Mr. Fleischmann’s best hockey of his career came within the first month after he returned from an injury that prevented him from playing any hockey during his recovery. With nothing to do but work on his conditioning, Mr. Fleischmann started the 2009-10 season in the best shape of his career, and the results showed. But Mr. Fleischmann lost that conditioning and his on-ice performance suffered. Other players in the league are able to keep their strength through the grind of an NHL regular season. Mr. Fleischmann is capable of doing the same.
And Mr. Fleischmann must commit himself to do the hard work in front of the net and in the corners. If you review the kinds of plays Mr. Fleischmann was making and goals Mr. Fleischmann was scoring in his first month back from injury, you can see that he was capable of holding territorial position and of taking the play to and through defenders. Newfound strength bred confidence, and that confidence led to greatly improved play at both ends of the ice. The good news is that Mr. Fleischmann has proven himself capable. The question that remains before him is whether he is willing to commit to improving his defense, his conditioning, and his willingness to play in the most difficult and dangerous areas of the ice.
If the Capitals receive a full season of the player who showed up in November in the best shape of his life, then the player’s salary demand will be more than fair. If he plays as the far diminished Tomas Fleischmann who suited up for six out of seven playoff games, before being benched for unsatisfactory play, then the team’s salary offer will be too generous by far.
The Capitals have been an outstanding regular season team the last two years, and Mr. Fleischmann has contributed to that success. But they have also been a playoff disappointment, and Mr. Fleischmann has contributed to that too. As is true of his team, there is little left for Mr. Fleischmann to prove in the regular season. The success or failure of Mr. Fleischmann’s 2010-11 season, and of the team as a whole, will turn on playoff performance.
Mr. Fleischmann could be worth the amount he has requested in this arbitration in future seasons. In fact, he could be worth far more. But the player is not there yet. To reach that level, he must get better. The Washington Capitals believe he is capable of reaching that level. But he must decide he wants to, and he must commit to taking the necessary steps to improve his game.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 23 recs
we are all constrained by the CBS
Julie Chen arbitrates the Flash hearing.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
With nothing to do but work on his conditioning, Mr. Fleischmann started the 2009-10 season in the best shape of his career, and the results showed. But Mr. Fleischmann lost that conditioning and his on-ice performance suffered. But Mr. Fleischmann lost that conditioning and his on-ice performance suffered. Other players in the league are able to keep their strength through the grind of an NHL regular season. Mr. Fleischmann is capable of doing the same.
At which point, Fleischmann’s representative points out, "Mr. Fleischmann was not able to do any kind of work on his lower body during his recovery from his blood clot rehab (a life-threatening condition he got blocking a shot during the Capitals’ 2009 playoff). Criticizing a player for “losing his conditioning” seems like desperation, considering that said player was not able to build stamina or strength in his legs during the entire off-season. If the Capitals do not even know the full extent of their own player’s injuries, then perhaps they should not be discussing it at this hearing."
/Fleischmann awarded $3.1 million/
There was no limit on his weight lifting or aerobic workouts. By August, any physical damage to legs or any other part of his body was already long healed. But he was on blood thinners, so he was not permitted to do anything where he might take physical contact. Hell, he was even allowed to skate. He just couldn’t practice.
So his legs were in fantastic shape when he was finally cleared to play.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, there was a limit on his workouts during his recovery. He was not allowed to do any kind of weight training on his legs, so he concentrated on his upper body. The clot was discovered in June. He was not allowed to do any kind of training until mid-July, and was not allowed to start skating until September and not allowed to practice until mid-October.
“When I found out I had a blood clot in my leg, all I could do was work on my upper body and abs at first,” said Fleischmann, who weighs 192 pounds, up from the 183 he weighed at this time a year ago. “So I did that for a month and a half.”
The upper body strength training helped him bulk up, but it also meant he didn’t have a full off-season’s worth of training to building up the strength in his legs.
Any conditioning he had during his time off at the beginning of the season was to get his legs back into playing shape after losing strength in them with the lack of a regular off-season workout program, not building off what was already established, which is what happened with his upper body. Assuming that his legs were “in fantasic shape” without dealing with the medical fact that the human body loses definition, strength, muscle, and stamina without training and that it takes time to get that strength back to its former levels isn’t realistic. Nor is it realistic to criticize a player for “losing condition” when said conditioning was hampered by an injury.
Fair enough, I had the timing wrong. But I definitely remember him coming into the season a month late in great shape. Maybe all the upper body workouts were the reason, but whatever the reason, he was a different man that month.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
When Tocchet was first brought in to coach the Tampa Bay Lightning, he sometimes sat Stamkos to have him continue to work on his conditioning; I wonder if Tomas might benefit from some of the same treatment. If he took off every, say, fifth game of the season to work on power training in the weight room, he would save some wear and tear on his body and help to keep his mass up. Is a more rested, more energetic, more focused, more effective #14 the result? I’d be interested to see, frankly.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But who else is gonna get his minutes in the lineup?
Sincerely,
Bruce.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
That’s an interesting idea. Maybe not necessarily sit every 5th game out, maybe less frequently. But I see your point.
But it does seem that “runs out of gas” too soon. I’m sure the pneumonia had a great deal to do with it in 2008-2009. I know he worked out while out with his blood clot and he came back in great shape. But still, we have never really seen what Flash can do when he’s healthy the whole year.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Mason Raymond just a two-year, $5.1 million contract prior to his hearing. He and his agent were looking in the mid $3 Million, I think.
Raymond set career highs in goals with 25 and assists with 28 in ’09-10 and played in 82 games.
He has 45 G and 52 A in 203 NHL career games – very Flash like.
This sounds comparable, and a deal I could live with for Flash.
They play different roles, though, and Raymond had done much less scoring prior to this year than Flash had. But yeah, hopeful.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yea, Flash fancies himself as top six and therefore wants a shitload of money.
One would think that the agent would look for 2 years of cost certainty vs one year at a higher salary, and set the stage for a huge contract in 2 years.
by S h a g g y on Jul 26, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Or wanted? Chimera’s a great skater, is willing to drop the gloves, and has hands that make Milan Jurcina look like a threat. OK, maybe his hands are a little better, but not much.
I don’t see what having more Chimeras will do – he’s basically just an upgrade over Matt Bradley on the opposite wing. Heart and soul, yes, but they contribute little else.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on Jul 26, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I would much rather have a guy like Raffi Torres come playoff time then Flash. I just dont see Flash playing a role in a deep playoff run. And I dont really care if he can drop 30 goals and help us hang another SE Conference banner.
I’d much rather have a real 2C than either Flash, Chimera, or Raffi Torres.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d much rather have Joe Sakic in his prime than any of those options.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think C2P was just pointing out that if we’re discussing what we’d like to have Flash turn into, a 2C would be nicer than a gritty winger.
Not that there are any 2C options out there that are available, of course.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Precisely what I meant. Thanks.
I think you still might be able to swing a trade either now or during the season for a 2C. I’d prefer to save the cap space to fit such a player in rather than sign Flash or a 3rd winger.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
In order to get Brad Richards, who has a 7.8 million dollar cap hit, at the trade deadline (or even just before), the Caps would need to bank about 2.5 million worth of cap space from the beginning of the season. If you slot Marcus Johansson or Mathieu Perreault at 3C and Fleischmann as a $3M 2C fill-in until deadline day, then the Caps are carrying a 21-man roster with 3.8 million in cap space. That’s more than enough to add a 13th forward at league minimum and a sixth/seventh defenseman.
I’d prefer to get a 2Cearlier than the deadline if possible. I’d also like to have as much flexibility as possible just in case one of the Caps top guys gets injured as well. The Caps were extremely lucky with injuries last season.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Oh, I was just being a jerk :)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You can go back to being the respectable statesman. I’m back now.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
When have I ever been that?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 28, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps don’t need another Jason Chimera. If they could get a Tomas Fleischmann from November 2009-January 2010 for a full season…that’d be something.
Don’t get me wrong I love Chimera: Gives a great effort, has good size, amazing speed for his size, willing to go to bat for teammates, knows where to be on the ice and gets there angry…and then there’s the rub. He has hands of concrete…and curing that is something that can’t be taught… it’s raw talent, and Chimera doesn’t have the talent Flash has. I love having Chimera on the roster, and if Flash can be more consistent, I’d love having him too…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 26, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not going to tell you that Chimera’s going to be a perennial 20-goal guy, but you’re painting him as David Steckel 2.0. You’re talking about a guy who, when healthy, has almost always put up double-digits in goals (while providing all the intangibles that Flash lacks). And he does this while playing 3rd/4th line minutes and getting almost zero PP time.
What’s more, I still miss my goddamn Chimera jersey. I sorely hope I run into the asswipe who stole it last year. He/she/it shouldn’t be hard to find – I was the only one wearing a Chimera jersey last year.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Jul 26, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Rec’d all the way around.
And I thought Tom Soehn was a shitty coach.
by Bald Pollack on Jul 26, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Btw, I have to note that while I’m proud of the post we put up here, it’s just not the same without Judge Pepper’s verdict.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
We can’t hope to do as thorough a job as Judge Pepper, but based on the arguments provided…
This is a matter of an arbitration involving Tomas Fleischmann and the Washington Capitals pursuant to Article 12 of the collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA..
The player signed a two-year contract in 2008 at an annual salary of $725,000. The player is seeking $3,150,000; the club is offering $1,900,000.
Summary of Arguments
The player describes himself as a "skilled and versatile forward" with a combination of offensive and defensive abilities. The arguments for his offensive contributions are adequately substantiated by the objective data provided and recorded by the League, although not compelling. While the player notes that only 77 forwards recorded as many as the 23 goals he scored last year and that only 90 forwards recorded as many points, 241 forwards participated in at least the 69 games in which the player participated. This, contrary to the player’s argument, does not provide compelling evidence that – as the player argues – "he can produce like a first line player." Arguments for his defensive contributions are insufficiently supported by objective measures and rely on subjective judgments of his value in this area to the club.
The club portrays the player as skilled but with questions as to durability and conditioning. The club offers a series of measures to argue that the offensive statistics amassed by the player overstate his value and contributions to the club. The measures, in that they are not among the official statistics compiled by the league, contribute to the decision, but cannot be considered compelling in this instance. The club also has made an argument that the player’s performance has "tailed off" in each of the last three seasons and provides evidence from the 2009-2010 season to buttress this claim. However, the player – as noted in the player’s brief – suffered from a condition in the 2009 off season that hampered his ability to train. While the pattern of performance for this player might suggest a diminished production over the course of a season, the basis for the argument in 2009-2010 cannot be solely on conditioning issues. Circumstance (i.e., the basis of the injury(ies)) that might have led to the condition that affected his ability to train for the 2009-2010 season leads us to discount to a degree the conditioning argument.
Comparables
For the player finding an appropriate comparable from those offered is a challenging exercise. As the player notes, a number of the players (four of the five comparables offered) are playing on multi-year contracts. Only Colby Armstrong is offered as a player on a one-year contract for comparison purposes. Obtaining a measure of precision for the purpose of evaluating comparables is thus difficult.
For the club, we find Christopher Higgins as the most appropriate comparable here in terms of his statistical progression in the years leading to his platform year, his comparable overall statistical production (albeit with more goals and fewer assists than the player) and issues in his platform year (injuries limiting him to 57 games played).
Decision
The player to date has displayed a level of production that suggests top-six forward production on offense, but with significant liabilities on defense and in terms of reliability, particular late in seasons. While he can be used in different roles, he is not as versatile as the player’s brief argues (at least in terms of his ability to produce in those roles).
The player is to receive a salary of $2,350,000 for the 2009-2010 season.
- * * * *
We suspect that both the club and the player will be submitting higher numbers than those in the arguments provided. We suspect that the award will be somewhere in the $2.7-2.8 million range.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jul 26, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 10 recs
We can only hope that the arbitrators are as thorough in their analysis as the Honorable Peerless.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 27, 2010 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
For the player finding an appropriate comparable from those offered is a challenging exercise.
Snark A: Because all of them are in the KHL.
Snark B: Challenging exercise? This would be the first time The Player satisfactorily completed a challenging exercise.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
So here’s my own numbers analysis:
So we know that Flash spent a good portion of the season on a line with Alex Semin and other gifted players; his Corsi QoT reflects that. He should score at a decent rate, just from being on the ice with those teammates – the only guys with better teammate scores are Knuble, Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin himself, all of whom played significant minutes with each other.
Next: Fleischmann played against the weakest competition on the team – he was out there against 4th lines and 2nd or 3rd pairs, a lot. Boudreau significantly shielded his minutes in this regard.
Flash got exactly as many offensive zone starts as he did defensive zone starts – no bias on that to effect puck possession or defensive numbers either way.
You’ll have to take my word for this, since I can’t post the excel spreadsheet here, but Flash had the worst ratio of any Caps forward, by far, of penalties drawn to penalties taken. The best on the team? Matt Bradley, Eric Fehr and Alex Ovechkin, in that order, all of whom recorded a ratio of at least 1.3:1. Bradley drew and astounding 2.25 penalties for everyone he took and he took them at less than half the rate that Fleischmann did while on the ice.
The money shot: The Capitals are at their worst in terms of getting shots directed at net when Fleischmann is on the ice versus off of it. By a mile. This is damning; Fleischmann is a net negative on this team to near the same extent that Nicklas Backstrom is a positive in possession and is half-again as bad in that stat as Chimera, who spent half the year in CBus, getting murdered against Chicago, Detroit and Nashville. While playing with significantly worse teammates and significantly more difficult competition in both cities.
Fleischmann shot 19% for this season; these numbers regress to the mean, hard, based on shot location. His shooting percentage before this year? 10.9%. That’s coming down, folks.
Tomas Fleischmann is a player that needs gifted teammates to succeed, both on the Power Play and at Even Strength, is a liability on the PK, takes more than twice as many penalties as he draws, and single-handedly turns the Capitals from a massively net-positive shooting team while he’s on the ice to a net negative team.
My verdict is that Tomas Fleischmann deserves to sign his QO and no more. His defensive deficiencies outweigh his offensive skill, which is 2nd line material.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 26 recs
Great work khtad.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome work.
It’s good to see I’m not too far off with my addition by subtraction feelings re: Flash.
Reading the case presented by “Fleischmann’s Side” angered me. Because I know it’s mostly bullshit, most likely what they will use, and quite possibly will work.
I'm gonna pain you dearly Woodhouse, when I peel all your skin off with a flensing knife, sew it into Woodhouse pajamas, and then set those pajamas on fire.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jul 26, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you can now say “mission accomplished”.
Joe Finley to the Russians: "Como estas?"
by Steck It Out on Jul 26, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It’d have been better without all the typos and a bit better organized, but I was trying to get it up in a hurry; working on a bit of a deadline for a school assignment. So, sorry to everyone about all those errors.
At least as damning – I would rather have every player listed as a comparable, on both sides, excepting Colby Armstrong. Prucha has been a lockdown defensive player in PHO and draws a metric load of penalties. If I were to pick a player to put on a wing with Semin, Prucha is just about ideal, in fact.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
And his $1.2 million cap hit wouldn't hurt either
Phenom work. My favorite was by far:
“Tomas Fleischmann is a player that needs gifted teammates to succeed, both on the Power Play and at Even Strength, is a liability on the PK…”
Put Semin on his natural left wing and Fehr on the 2nd line RW and see what happens. You see a guy who legitimately gets 30-35 goals, when completely healthy, AND shows up big-time in th eplayoffs. He’s like Knubes Lite, for crying out loud.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
But then that makes Chimera-MarJo-Flash? I can’t see that working.. unless you’re putting Flash or Chimera on the fourth LW or not putting MarJo in the lineup.
But, just looking at that line, without the consequences after, I like Semin/Fehr together :)
Glad you asked
I know, right… without consideration to the 3rd line, wouldn’t that be outstanding?
Realizing it’s not going to make me popular, but here’s how I envision toying with the lines to bolster our 3rd line (keep in mind, that there’s very little chance Marcus Johansson will be up to play in the big leagues next year for a sustained period of time, and lesser chance he’ll be centering our 2nd line): 
This was before some of the ridiculous arbitration awards, so our new 3rd line winger will probably cost us a dicey $2.8 mill a year, but this at least gives our 3rd line a real scoring threat, and gives AHL greats like MP and Andrew Gordon the chance to prove their worth at the NHL level.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
Finley’s not making the big club. There’s a better chance we dress Nylander as our 2C.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on Jul 26, 2010 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's a scratch
Count up the positions.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
I know. He’s not going to be a scratch here. He’s going to be in Hershey, if not South Carolina.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
If there was an award for “most likely to be killed on ice” I would give it to Prucha. I’ve never seen a guy take as many devastating hits as he did with NYR. Maybe he fixed it in PHX but that guy used to get destroyed while on NYR.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Awesome work.
I just hope the Caps are as aware of some of these non-traditional statistics.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
And the arbitrator understands them.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Too true. I’m thinking that Gs, As, Ps and maybe +/- will be the only things bandied about in this hearing.
Welcome to Flash making $3m.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
If he comes out of the gate like he did last year, he’ll look like he’s well worth it, though. Maybe he gets traded to a team that needs some cap relief. Accounting for Flash at, say, $3.5M (worst case scenario, I hope), and Mackan as the 3C ($900K), the Caps would have about $4M in cap space, so they could ship Flash out and take on salary.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
If he comes out of the gate and shoots 25% for 20 games again, I’ll eat my hat. If he can adjust his game to how he was playing in that early season stretch, regardless of shooting percentage, then he’ll be alright. He desperately needs to improve his puck possession and work in the trenches, along with his defensive coverage. He’s simply not at NHL level in those categories.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s shown that he can shoot 25% over short periods. The Caps just need to be smart enough to find a sucker to take him in trade while he’s in the midst of his streak.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
The problem is this; anyone can shoot 25% over short periods – see Lee Stempniak after the trade deadline last season.
I think the hows and the particulars of the goals he scores are going to be more important in the ability to trade Flash, as will be his commitment to playing defense.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is this; anyone can shoot 25% over short periods – see Lee Stempniak after the trade deadline last season.
See also John Wilkes Booth.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
Sic semper tyrannissaurus rec’d
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Jul 26, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
...
I know you badmouthed me to the execs at the NHL, put the kibosh on my deal. Now I’m going to put the kibosh on you. You know I’ve kiboshed before, and I will kibosh again
Choking since 1985.
by macvechkin on Jul 26, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Amazing.
On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
by Chris Burton on Jul 26, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Under my theory, the Caps are trading cap-relief by taking on salary, and sending back some goal scoring is a bonus. So we’d need a team that is tight to the cap and has a center you’d want, where that center makes a good bit more than Flash’s presumed +/- $3M.
Truthfully, I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head. The Stars??
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
The team doesn’t necessarily need to be tight to the Cap. Instead, they could just be needing to shed salary quickly due to financial issues.
The Stars would be one team that we could send Flash to, but another option (and perhaps a better one) would be St. Louis. T.J. Oshie and Patrick Berglund are both RFAs next year, and David Backes is a UFA. They also have some significant salary tied up in Andy McDonald and Brad Boyes (both of whom can play center, but have been playing on the wings lately), and will likely have a lot tied up in Erik Johnson. That, and they’ve had a major investor pull out of the team, so they’re having cash problems. That, and they’ve been goal-starved over the past couple of seasons.
Good point about a self-imposed cap, and about St Louis. I don’t know enough about the guys you mention to evaluate them. Would you take any of them for 2C on the Caps?
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Would you take any of them for 2C on the Caps?
Oh sweet baby raptor Jesus, yes I would. Any of Oshie, Backlund or Backes (I doubt Backes ever leaves STL though) would make my month.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Taking a look at Capgeek, only McDonald and Boyes make enough money to make a money-saver out of acquiring Flash…
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Not nearly as high on either of them.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
He hazzz a Cup!!!
And he’s actually a Center.
But his contract is downright cringe-worthy if you are the guy signing the check. For him? Just more evidence how damn smart the guy is.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Well, maybe the Blues give up all three for Flash, eh? That’d be a real savings. Yessir.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
by fat_daddyo on Jul 26, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec’d, because I like the optimism.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh. Why not dream big, right?
Coming back to reality, my expectations for the upcoming season are the same as JP’s. Flash with a big arb award and a role as the 2C.
Also, I’ll add in another early exit from the playoffs.
You can flag this one for pessimism.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
I think Andy Mac could be a good 2C fit for the Caps.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
But would the Caps want him through 2012-2013 at 4.7 million a pop?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 26, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
No. I just meant the player in a vacuum (dumb of me not to clarify).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Isn’t Flash the player Caps fans most would like to see in a vacuum?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Or is Flash, in fact, a vacuum himself? They certainly perform the same function…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I think the word you’re looking for is ‘suck’.
On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
by Chris Burton on Jul 26, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t Flash the player most Caps fansmostwould like to see in a vacuum?
Let’s be honest – I’m not happy the guy’s going to arbitration, but if his cap hit stays relatively low (I’m hoping 2.5 range), and he’s willing to sign for that, I think it’s a good deal. We’re not going to keep everyone we bring up and draft, and if Flash proves to be a decent value for decent production, he’s worth keeping until we can get someone better for him. If he gets about 3 million, I’m all for dealing him. Above 4? Baibai.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Capitals scoring line wingers I’d rather see in the lineup than Flash:
Ovechkin
Semin
Knuble
Fehr
Laich
Andrew Gordon
Oh hey, that’s 3 lines worth.
I, for one, would be much quicker to simply let the guy go than others around here. It doesn’t bother me much one way or another whether the team gets anything for him.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
If it means he doesn’t see the ice in Caps red next season, I would have absolutely no qualms with that.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Knuble’s going to be here for what, one more year? Is Semin worth keeping long term?(My gut says no). Laich (hopefully not) may be gone next year.
Oh hey, that’s half of that list gone.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t want any of those guys over Fleischmann. I’m saying that if money becomes an issue and Flash is making less than 3 million, I don’t mind him sticking around long term.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
My problem with Flash sticking around is that he seems to cause more problems than he helps with. I think the team would be better off without him – even if it meant using one of the Bears instead.
Right, but when he’s on, he’s on. I’m willing to take the chance.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
The Caps are already building the second line around a big money guy who “when he is on, he’s on”. The less money they commit to those guys the better, IMO.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So with whom do you replace Semin and Fleischmann (esp. Semin) when the time comes?
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Flash… you have A. Gordon, Mackan, Kuznutz, Galiev… not too hard. Semin can probably be replaced down the road by one of them, but not as easily.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Yeah, boy. “Not as easily” re: Semin might be putting it lightly. I won’t apologize for Semin’s foibles or his less than stellar playoff performance. His skills, though, are otherworldly, and I’m hopeful that he remains a Cap for a long time.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you, personally. If he doesn’t stay a Cap, I think it will be for cap reasons. Semin is incredibly talented, and can play in any situation.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Love seeing Semin on the PK. I think he can be used more here. Back to Flash…let’s hope he gets signed for a reasonable #. If he does, I think he’s done enough to see how much he can contribute to the squad this year (a little more Springtime produciton would be nice, eh?). The Caps are in a good position here to have the luxury of experimenting a bit without risking a playoff spot.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think the best way Flash can contribute is as part of a trade. He doesn’t bring anything the Caps aren’t already getting from multiple players, and he is taking up a roster spot that can be put to better use.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
If Mackan’s ready, I think I have to agree with you. Especially if we can upgrade the D. I wonder, though, if the team won’t have a better handle on specific needs at or near the trade deadline.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Waiting wouldn’t be a problem. I’d just be much more comfortable if Flash is gone before the playoffs.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Is it October yet?! Having to wait 5 days between Strasburg starts is working on my patience.
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it is a mistake to think that the Caps need to replace Semin with someone with a similar skillset and offensive ability. With the amount of offense the Caps have they can afford to sacrifice some offense for some other skills in Semin’s replacement.
I think that the Caps can get a replacement for Semin that is a downgrade at offense, but is a more complete, consistent and cheaper player and become a better team because of it.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 27, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it’d be a mistake to downgrade too much offensively. The team can’t afford to have only one line be a scoring line.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on Jul 27, 2010 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Completely agree. But I think the Caps can build a 2nd line that can produce offensively (and be more difficult to play against in other aspects) without building it around a stud talent like Semin. With guys like Fehr and some of the young prospects in the system, I think that they may be better off having the right $4-5 million player to round out the line as opposed to keeping Semin around for the money he will command.
But this discussion has been had many, many times before and we’ll have it again, so I’ll stop dragging this off topic. To get back on topic, replacing Flash is significantly easier for the Caps, and his offense is something the Caps can afford to lose much more than Semin’s. So I’m not worried about what the Caps will do if he is gone.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 27, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
The Caps wouldn’t need to get a 35-40 goal scorer, but they would need to have the 2nd line be a significant offensive threat. It would probably take a 30 goal scorer to do that. Or maybe 3 25 goal scorers – which I think the Caps could put out there within the next couple of years.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
He’s off far more than on. I’d rather not take the chance. I’d take a gritty 3rd liner who doesn’t score as much over Flash.
I’ll agree to disagree. He’s yet to have a healthy offseason, and I’m willing to give him one more year to see what he can do. I’m cutting bait after this one if he doesn’t. Or now if he is awarded over 4M.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
What I mean is that I think he could be a long term solution over Semin if the price is right and he continues to improve.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
I can’t see him as a long-term help, due to all the talent the Caps have in their system. I think in 2-3 years, the Caps will still have 6 wingers better than Flash.
Pretty much, right now I see him as the 6th best winger on the Caps. In the future, I see him as about the same. Unless he gets $2.5M or less, I can’t see a lot of point in keeping him. He’d make good trade bait though.
I’d agree with most of this, but if we’re going to try and get a game changer at a deadline, we’ll have to move some prospects. I’m not advocating it – I’m just standing facts. Having Flash at ~3 million gives the team a lot of options.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
I definitely wouldn’t cry, but let’s say we moved Semin + A. Gordon for a Carter or something. Wouldn’t you want to have Flash over say…Jay Beagle filling in at 2W?
At the same time, if you have Flash signed to a 1 year deal, he’s a good move for a team needing some scoring.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
I would rather see Fehr and Laich as the wings. But Flash on a 1-year, ~$3M contract is quite tradable – if a team needs goals and has good defense.
The Caps sure could use some smarts on the 2nd line with their little Siberian Snowflake.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s less likely to get traded than Boyes, if only because Andy Mac has an NTC. Also, Andy McDonald is about as durable as a wet paper bag.
Right. The money (4.7/year) doesn’t worry me. the Caps can afford that for the next three years. But the lack of durability does.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The money wouldn’t worry me for this season only, but both Mike Green and John Carlson hit RFA status in the same year. If we see the same players that we’ve seen and Carlson continues to develop, we’re looking at some real problems with MacDonald playing 2C at 4.7/year.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. Don’t forget Laich, Varly and Neuvirth next summer as well.
I think puck bunnies everywhere will have to accept there is a strong possibility Laich goes to another team after this season.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 26, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Stanley Cup, boys. This year. Please.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
by EmilyB on Jul 26, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A fucking durable wet paper bag...
Since the lockout he has played 82, 82, 82, 46, 79. Except for the massive broken leg injury he’s been pretty damn durable for a guy that plays C, isn’t very big, and plays top 6 minutes. Not to mention he made it through the entire SCF run without getting hurt and could easily have been a Conn Smythe candidate. But sure. Not durable.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Jul 27, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I can speak to STL, some. The easiest guy you could pry off them is Boyes, then Berglund. Oshie and Backes won’t be going anywhere, least of all Backes. He’ll be named captain as soon as Brewer is dealt.
I’m not convinced Berglund is all that good, or that he’s going to pan out to a 2C level. Those smarter than me think otherwise, though, so I’m willing to wait and see.
On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
by Chris Burton on Jul 26, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Assignment in, here's the numbers, again courtesy of BtN:
Oshie: 3.112
Backes: 2.691
MacDonald: 2.555
Berglund: 2.117
Boyes: 1.599
Basically, everyone played with good teammates, at least as far as outshooting is concerned. Oshie probably saw the most potential benefit, MacDonald and Backes were pretty much indistinguishable, followed by Berglund, then Boyes.
Oshie: 1.089
Backes: .886
Boyes: .460
MacDonald: .302
Berglund: .121
Oshie and Backes played against the toughest assignments, Boyes and MacDonald saw less effective lines and Berglund got comparatively soft minutes.
Zone Start (Draws taken outside the neutral zone, percentage of offensive zone starts)
Berglund: 59.7
MacDonald: 55.2
Boyes: 51.4
Oshie: 50.9
Backes: 47.2
Berglund gets the lion’s share of offensive starts, followed by MacDonald. I think this is a combination of getting Berglund away from the top lines and acknowledging his offensive skill.
Berglund: 10.6
Oshie: 8.1
Backes: 6.8
MacDonald: 3.6
Boyes: 1.3
Given that Berglund is playing with strong teammates against weaker competition than the other players in the comparison, you’d hope he had a strong Corsi relative to the team, but this is a very strong relative Corsi; it’s the highest on the team out of any player. More impressive though, in my mind, is Backes and Oshie both playing against much tougher competition with much tougher zone starts (with better teammates, admittedly). Boyes and MacDonald both suffer significantly in this analysis; they’re both overpaid for the production they’re providing to the team. Sounds a lot like a certain red-headed center in the near future, actually.
So in conclusion, I’d take, in order, Backes, Oshie, Berglund, MacDonald, Boyes. It’s a very close call between Backes and Oshie, either would be near the ideal solution to 2C. Berglund is younger than either, I believe, and looks to be an effective player if used the right way. If the Caps were to trade for any of them, I’d feel quite comfortable giving up some of the prospective 2C players in the system; Other than Johansson, and Kuznetsov, the first three are already near what I think are the ceilings for the players the Caps are currently considering. And they’re likely to improve over the next few years.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Wow. Once again, amazing work. Admittedly, I’ve thus far just used my eyes for assessing Berglund – he doesn’t seem as comfy out there as Backes or Oshie.
On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
by Chris Burton on Jul 26, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
A couple of other teams I can think of that have cap/cash trouble, need a goal-scoring winger, and have centers to trade:
Buffalo (Derek Roy, Tim Connoly, and Jochen Hecht all make 3.5 million plus and can play center)
New York Rangers (anyone want Chris Drury at a ridiculous salary for two more seasons?)
A 3rd line center for elite 1st line center money? Oh boy!
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, if Drury were making closer to $4m I’d love to see him in a Caps sweater. Sadly, he makes nothing close to $4m.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Sure he does – $4m before the All-Star break and another $4m thereafter.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And something I should really start mentioning more often:
Numbers courtesy of Gabe Desjardins and his fantastic www.behindthenet.ca. An incredibly valuable resource for any hockey fan who cares to look.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't Flash's asking price affect this?
You all think he has the onions to ask for more than $2.75?
BTW – I’m not sold on “top six forward” just yet. Potentially, yes.
Choking since 1985.
If he’s not a Top 6 forward, he’s not an NHL player. He can’t play on a grind, checking, energy or 4th line.
Also, between AO, Backis, Knuble, Semin, and Fehr, there are at least 5 forwards that are better than Flash. Throw in Brooks Laich, and you’re looking at Flash being a roster player without a position. However, between BB’s love and GM’s distaste for letting guys go for nothing, he’s going to hang around.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
His onions are not on trial here.
His agent, however—yes, yes, a million times yes.
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Flash is a legit top 6 player. Just not on the Caps.
by timmyv38 on Jul 26, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Small Request
J.P.,
Is there any way you can add the salary data to your “Comparables” section? I know you’ve written it out in the following paragraph, but having it mirror D’s table would make apples-to-apples comparisons a bit easier.
Thanks
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
$3M players
I will forgo the “BB loves Flash” routine; Im not speaking to intangibles (or unquantifiables, more accurately) at this point.
This is overly simplistic perhaps, but it may be worth noting. Teams that fill their rosters with $3M players (or around there… 2-4M range) either run into the cap (Chicago) or perpetuate in mediocrity (usually Phoenix, Minnesota, etc.). Teams that pay all of their developing players quickly run out of cap flexibility, and teams with rosters consisting of only these players do not have the high-end talent to separate in the playoffs. Not to say this is always the case; but certainly recent seasons have produced this result.
The Caps are now starting to pay this type of player, and while GMGM is awesome, we will run out of wiggle room eventually. Part of what has made our team have such ridiculous potential is the fact we got super-production from cheap young players. Now that everyone “has to get paid”, the $/production ratio goes down significantly, and that is assuming simliar production to last season. Obvious.
Might a compromise be best for the long term? Paying Fehr already in this range, Mr. Nasty, and now potentially Fleish… I wonder if we might be better served with keeping some and losing some. Though slightly uncomfortable, we should rely on our deep system (like we are already doing with our Goalies) to give us continued cap flexibility and more chances for younger players. I don’t mean to delve deeply into long-term team development strategy, but this exact quandry was what we faced just after the playoffs, before re-signing F16 and 55.
Since the Caps are in the midst of trying to achieve playoff separation and success, we might gain more value from having the flexibility than the “at best” solid contribution of one player; especially a player that struggles with consistency (with the ‘valleys’ in production showing up in the playoffs). Without Fleish, the Caps still should have the most potent offense in the league.
Which leads me to an interesting thought: Would you fear facing Fleishmann on Tampa? Atlanta? Pittsburgh (despite their allergy to wing talent)? Or would you target that guy as someone the Caps could take advantage of in this scenario; someone that is easily thrown off their game and lacks the toughness to be a constant force? I, personally, do not fear Flash’s retribution potential. Perhaps that tells us something important in juding Flash’s relative value.
by CapitalDominion on Jul 26, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
Without Fleish, the Caps still should have the most potent offense in the league.
In the upcoming season, I’m expecting a falloff to ~295 goals. There’s enough skill on the roster to have a high on-ice shooting percentage at the top end, but I don’t see the bottom level guys getting all the points they did this year. That ought to be in contention for the #1 offense, but it’s not going to blow everyone out of the water, either.
Or would you target that guy as someone the Caps could take advantage of in this scenario
I’d be throwing 8/19/22 over the boards every time Flash hit the ice; they’d absolutely light him up.
Might a compromise be best for the long term? Paying Fehr already in this range, Mr. Nasty, and now potentially Fleish… I wonder if we might be better served with keeping some and losing some.
I’d say this is the case, with one caveat: Ovechkin probably only has a couple more years as a dominating goal-scorer before his has to change his game to remain effective. The team will contend with the young talent coming up, especially on the blueline, but we’re getting down to some real urgency; Semin is likely gone after next season, Ovechkin falls off after a couple more seasons if he follows the pattern of every other big goal scorer, Green may continue to struggle with the mental parts of the game. The window may be smaller than we’re all hoping, so the Caps had better start pushing some chips into to pot to win soon.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovechkin probably only has a couple more years as a dominating goal-scorer before his has to change his game to remain effective.
He’s not yet 25. I agree that he’s going to have to find a way to chill out a bit, but the careers of guys like Sakic, Shanahan, Jagr and Selanne suggest that he’s got until around 30 before he’s got to do that.
One problem using players such as Jagr, Sakic, Shanny and Teemu as comparables for age-related decline is that they all lived through a transition from from the most offensive era in hockey to one of the most defensive right as they hit their late 20s/early 30s. I think this created a slight exaggeration to their decline.
To sum up: I agree that Ovie’s got to change at some point, or he’ll see age-related decline. I just think he’s got more than a couple years before that hits – likely more like 4-5.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
That’s a good point, but the same also held for guys like Gretzky. Sakic and Iggy both had one last big season after 27, but both of them shot the lights out that season. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ovie had another season like that one, but I’d guess he’s more of a 37-goal-guy past his 28th birthday than a 50+ perennial threat for the Richard.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is, how do you project out a guy with the physical tools of Jagr, the temperament of Shanny and the speed of Selanne?
Barring injury, I’d be shocked if he dropped below being a 40 goal scorer before hitting 30. The main reason for that is the sheer volume of shots he directs on net. With Backstrom feeding him for the foreseeable future, he’ll continue to get his shots. All he has to do is keep his shooting % around 10 and he’s a virtual lock for 40 goals per year.
Of course, that’s barring injury. (Knocks on wood.)
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
If he had all of those, he’d be the best player in NHL history, hands down. Unfortunately, he’s got them all in somewhat lesser degrees than the aforementioned. He’s got Jagr’s size and strength, but not his hands, not quite. He doesn’t have the snarl that Shanny does, for all his physicality and he’s not quite as amazing around the screens, yet. Selanne is one of the fastest players to every lace ‘em up and while AO is fast, he’s not even the fastest guy on his own team. Green and Chimera are both faster, in my opinion.
What AO does better than anyone in the league is get his shots. It’s really quite amazing to watch and it’s not all physical skill. He got a lot of Brett Hull’s ability to slip into deadzones in the coverage, as well.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if Greenie is faster than Ovechkin anymore. Watching the replays of the 2009 playoffs on NHLN recently, I was shocked at how much faster Green looked then than this past season.
I believe F&B had commented on this a few months back, and also noted that Green needs to work on his off-season/conditioning regimen else more speed loss was likely.
Of course IMO OV has lost a step or two also, packing the 235 or whatever he was at last year. Wish he’d report at 230…
I agree with you on the assessment of the players’ relative skills, but I agree with D’oh that AO has more than a couple years left. I understand that elite goal scorers have a shorter window, but AO is a freak, even among elite goal scorers. Most of the goal scorers we think of played in significantly more difficult eras, and the guy that did get to feast on wide open hockey, Mike Bossy, only slowed down because of injuries. I think AO and Bossy are the two best pure goal scorers in the modern era. It’s not unfathomable that AO maintains his elite scoring status until age 30. And then, as has been noted here, he may be able to make the Shannahan adjustment and continue scoring, even if not in the same explosive manner as he currently does.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Comparables
Someone with more knowledge feel free to correct me, but usually the arbitrators in these hearings have little knowledge of hockey, so the arguments and judgments are based almost entirely on standard stat lines (Gs, As, Ps, FO%, Blocked Shots, etc.) and the salaries of players with comparable stats.
Given that this is the case, I think the Caps (and we the fans) are totally hosed here. Don’t get me wrong, all the words written by J.P. and DMG were awesome and, at least in the case of J.P, pretty convincing. (Sorry, D, but I’ll never buy what you’re selling in this case. You get an “A” for effort though.)
All that really matters are the comparable players, their stats and their salaries. To me, this means that the award will use Plekanec’s $2.75m and Hudler’s $2.875 as a baseline. Essentially, that $2.75m-$2.875 range is as low as his award will possibly go, and it’s likely to go higher.
My guess is that the Caps ask for something in the $2.25-2.4m range and Flash’s camp asks for something in the $3.25 to 3.4m range and the arbitrator awards Flash something slightly above $3m.
In a perfect world, KHTAD would be the judge, jury and executioner on this deal, but that’s unfortunately not the case. While I understand that the Thrashers may not have put up much of a fight in the hearing, any world in which Clark MacArthur is awarded $2.4m is a world in which Flash makes more than $3m.
One thing that will be interesting to watch is how quickly support for Flash will ebb away from the fanbase if the Caps accept the award. At $750k, Flash was a relative bargain even if he was as soft as a satin pillow. Now he’s just going to be an absurdly overpaid third-liner. I don’t foresee many folks defending his ginger ass when his salary and soft 20-odd goals crowd out a mid-season acquisition. My only hope is that he starts the season like a house on fire and then we package him to some team desperate for scoring.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Jul 26, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 7 recs
The whipping boy potential of Flash at $3M a season is almost worth seeing it come to fruition.
Choking since 1985.
Flash is not a whipping boy
Whipping boys are innocent and blamed for the sins of others. Flash isn’t blamed for Semin sucking in the playoffs; Flash is blamed for Flash sucking in the playoffs. The day Flash is criticized for other people’s flaws is the day we can talk about Flash being a whipping boy. But until then, Flash just sucks on his own merit.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
I definitely get the feeling that arbitrators don’t look beyond standard stats. Reading JP’s argument I couldn’t help but think “almost non of this is going to matter in arbitration”. I can’t imagine why the NHL wouldn’t use arbitrators with better hockey knowledge.
he’s just going to be an absurdly overpaid third-liner.
I can’t see BB taking him off the 2nd line, especially after his inflated arbitration salary takes away the 2nd line leverage Fehr got from his new contract.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Reading JP’s argument I couldn’t help but think "almost non of this is going to matter in arbitration".
Hey, it’s all I had. It’s why guys like Flash get paid and guys like Schultz get jeered.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I definitely didn’t mean that as a knock on you. I thought you articulated perfectly why I want Flash shipped out in a trade. It’s more of a knock on the arbitration process. What you threw out there is far more useful in evaluating player value than just raw points stats.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Which line he’ll actually play on at the outset of next season will likely depend a lot on what the 2C situation is and how he plays in camp. If he’s not the 2C himself, I’d be mildly surprised if he surpassed Laich on the 2nd line.
Ergo, the 2nd line will be: Semin – Not Flash – Laich
Third line would then be: Fehr – ??? – Flash
Fourth line would be: Chimera – Gordo – Brads
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
(Flip Fehr and Flash, L/R)
My money’s on Flash being the 2C. MarJo as 3C.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
So my predicted lines are:
8-19-22
28-14-21
25-90-16
15-39-10
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
That 14 at 2C just . . .
A) tears me up inside;
B) gives me a serious case of the ass;
C) does not bode well for the upcoming season;
D) all of the above.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
D.
I’d add:
E) Is the brutal reality we likely face.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Play armchair GM for my benefit. What would you do? Laich at 2C? Free agent signing? Trade? Hope and pray that one of Marcus Johansson or Mathieu Perreault steps up and takes that role?
And what about last year’s AHL MVP?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure.
Last year at the deadline when folks were discussing possible trades for defensemen, I actually argued that – in the context of last season – I’d rather trade Fehr than Flash, simply because Flash could fill in at C if we ran into injury trouble (this was before we picked up Belanger).
Had I known that we’d shit the bed in such a fantastic fashion, I never would have made such a suggestion because Fehr’s future upside is so much higher.
In reality, I am still hoping the Caps can ship him off to a team that needs a top-6 winger and someone who can plan on the PP. Give Flash 18 minutes of ice time (and 4 mins of PP time) on a crappy team and he’ll probably get 25-odd goals. He’ll still be soft, he’ll still lose puck battles, he’ll still miss defensive assignments, and he’ll still disappear at the most inopportune moments, but there are plenty of teams out there who’d pay $3m for a 25/30/55 winger. The Caps just can’t afford $3m for 20 empty goals.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Jul 26, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I actually argued that – in the context of last season – I’d rather trade Fehr than Flash
Rec’d for bravery and honest in that admission…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah. I surprised myself at the time, given my distaste for Flash. At the same time, I think I was generally correct. Had either Bax or BMo gone down, we would have been completely screwed, whereas if we lost a winger, we had plenty of players ready to fill in.
Still, that was presupposing a prolonged playoff run rife with potential injuries.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Let the three or four of them duke it out in camp, go into the season with the winner at 2C, if and when it bombs make a deal at the midway point. Caps will be in the playoff mix no matter what, but with plenty of time to gear up for the stretch run. Easy.
Or, my favorite idea: Play Laich and Semin and Flash together, Call Flash the C, but let Laich take all the faceoffs—it’s a nice mix of grit, speed and skill, without the 40% FO rate.
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Having Laich take the faceoffs has been addressed before, that’s just asking for trouble on your defensive assignments (something Flash struggles with regardless) if you lose the draw. Flash is either the C or the W, but they’ll know during the game.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, but it happens all the time, when one dude gets kicked out of the circle. How do teams plan defensively when this happens (sincerely, not being a wiseass, my knowledge of on-the-fly defensive alignments is limited)?
by bilspacecadet on Jul 26, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m going to defer to others with better knowledge than my own on this subject, D’oh or F&B or K_C is a better bet to answer this accurately than I am.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve never been on a team that had a plan for that, barring very special faceoffs such as late-game D-zone PK faceoffs, or O-zone PP faceoffs.
Typically, the way I’ve always played and coached it is that you take responsibility for whatever position you’re filling on the ice at the time – not your position on the roster.
So, in the example where Laich is the center for Semin at left wing and Flash at right wing and Laich gets tossed out of a D-zone faceoff to the right of the goalie, Flash would take his spot at center while Laich would take his right wing spot on the right hash marks of the circle. If Flash stays true to form and loses the draw, Flash would be responsible for the opposing center, Laich would be responsible for the opposing D at the right point, Semin would take the opposing D at the left point, while the two defensemen would take the remaining wingers.
If Flash miraculously won the draw, the same thing would happen, only this time on the breakout. After the Caps’ defenseman gets the puck, Semin would skate to neutral ice and cherry-pick the left-side half-boards, the defenseman would swing the puck D-to-D, then up to Semin while Flash curls to his left, picks up the pass from Semin and looks for Laich skating up through neutral ice.
Of course, this is how it looks when you draw it up on the chalkboard whiteboard. It never happens quite that cleanly in real life, but you get the picture.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Jul 26, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, you definitely don’t want guys trying to switch up the assignments in the defensive zone after losing the draw. That’s how you get the team running around and you see blown assignments (and the Caps don’t need any help doing that). Particularly after losing the offensive zone faceoff when the opposing team likely has some set plays designed, you’ve got to stick to your man instead of trying to shift around assignments.
Think of the Chicago game this year: Chicago got a goal when Toews won the faceoff then lost his man going to the net. There was a lot of discussion here about who blew their coverage, but that type of thing would be a lot more common if the Caps consistently planned to have one guy take the faceoff then another person take over the other center duties.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That CHI goal was at 4/4 so that was a part of the problem. The whole unit looked out of sorts but I think Steckel especially wasn’t expecting to be rotating so high in the zone. The most important point to remember is that the C that takes the draw is 100% responsible for the other C after the draw. You can’t just take the FO and then switch positions or you let the opposing C go right to the net. Things happen way too fast after a FO to try to switch assignments. For all practical purposes, where you start the shift on a D-zone draw is where you are going to be playing at least until you get a clear.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Sounds great in theory, but I don’t think it would work positionally. Here’s why:
Laich is the corner/net-presence on that line, which means he’ll frequently be down low forcing either Sasha or Flash to be the high-man on the forecheck and be one of the first men back on the backcheck. That’s asking for a number of HHT penalties from Sasha and a number of blown assignments from Flash while he’s busy thinking about ponies.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Provided he doesn’t break his wrist signing the contract.
And I thought Tom Soehn was a shitty coach.
by Bald Pollack on Jul 26, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think that’ll be an issue unless he insists on holding the pen with his foot.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
So you don’t foresee Belanger in this season’s plans?
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me ask a better question. Do you think the Caps will sign Belanger?
by mechanicsville on Jul 26, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
No. I don’t think he’s a 2C and I think they have enough guys who can play 3C.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I don’t think he’s a 2C and I think they have enough guys who can play 3C.
Not sure I agree there. Flash certainly doesn’t have the grit to play there. Laich could play 3C but then you’d have to replace what he brings to the wing. Gordon? Not really skilled enough. Same for Stecks and he’s not fast enough. You’ve got MP, but I think the jury’s still out on whether he has the strength and durability to last a full season on a quasi-checking line. Mackan could start there, but it seems like McPhee sees him as the second line answer. If that’s the case, then I really think you need a proven veteran center on the third line because you can’t have two rookies centering your second and third lines. And that’s where Belanger could be the answer. He’s really suited for the #3C role but in a pinch could jump to #2C for a short period of time. I still think we may see Belanger back with the Caps before the season starts provided he lowers his salary demands.
Flash certainly doesn’t have the grit to play there (3C)
This gets thrown around a fair bit, but it overlooks the fact that the caps don’t roll the typical “shutdown” or “quasi-checking” 3rd line like many other teams (and the caps pre-Bruce); the 3rd line is really just another scoring line. And, if his wingers are Chimera and Fehr, there is plenty of grit already on that line. He would greatly reduce the net defensive-responsibility of that line, but that’s true on any line they put him on.
So you’re talking something like:
Ovechkin – Backstrom – Knuble
Laich – Mackan – Semin or Semin – Laich – A. Gordon
Chimera – Flash – Fehr
Not too terrible
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I’m not neccesarily proposing he play on the 3rd line (my gut says, unfortunately, that he will be our 2C until such a time as we can trade for a real one), just pointing out that the way we roll a 3rd line doesn’t preclude his use there. And of course, with BB calling the shots, any “set lines” are just a fantasy anyway :-)
I felt bad that the guy lost all those chiclets, but at no point did his play make me pine for a return.
Choking since 1985.
Agreed. Often lost in the Belanger discussion is that during 17 games with the Caps, Belanger went 2-4-6. Not exactly 2C numbers right there.
I still think I’d like to see him play through a full season in the Caps’ system. The post-trade deadline (and post-olympic) Caps were not the same team that won 14 straight.
I do agree we have a surplus of 3Cs.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
My money is on Laich claiming that 2C slot.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
(and “claiming” may be a strong word for what ultimately happens)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone with more knowledge feel free to correct me, but usually the arbitrators in these hearings have little knowledge of hockey, so the arguments and judgments are based almost entirely on standard stat lines (Gs, As, Ps, FO%, Blocked Shots, etc.) and the salaries of players with comparable stats.
That’s funny, because when we were working on this I sent J.P. an email to effect of “I feel dumb writing Flash’s side. It’s basically ‘look at these basic numbers! Okay, now don’t think about it any harder.’”
Caps should win this one. 1 to 2 mil tops!
The key prase in all of this is “As the games get more critical, Tomas Fleischmann becomes more invisible.” And as long as the Capitals side can prove this, then they should have no problem in winning. There is no way Flash should get more than a 1 year deal at 2.5 mil tops!
If only arbitration worked this way…
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jul 26, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m a bit surprised that DMG only asked for 3.1…I am expecting flash’s camp to ask for something closer to 3.6 myself, with the caps coming in at an offer of about 2.2 (just above Fehr money). Expecting an award in the 3 – 3.2 range, hoping for something closer to 2.8. Anything less than that would be outstanding (and more than fair, really) but not likely.
I had originally aimed a little higher, but I couldn’t find any comparables with one year deals at 3.5M+.
That’s the single most positive thing I can remember ever being written about NHL owners.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 26, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Very nice Jurcina Arbitation-esque zinger in there:
Fleischmann is versatile to the extent that he can center a line or kill a penalty poorly.
Not quite as good as
In sum, to call Jurcina one-dimensional would mislead the reader by implying there is an area of his game that is particularly strong.
but close.
by GusDaMan on Jul 26, 2010 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
how’s this for a zinger?
“According to the CBA, an arbitrator is required to assess ‘The player’s “overall contribution” to the team’s success or failure.’ Last year as a Washington Capital, Tomas Fleischmann contributed to both."
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jul 26, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That Jurcina line was so epic – and yet, as far as he’s come since it was written, I really kinda wish he was our 7D.
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If it meant that Erskine wasn't...
…so do I.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
Hearing is on the 28th, if the sides don’t settle before that time.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
And are the results usually known that same day, or does the arbitrator deliberate for a period of time before announcing his decision?
Got me, dude.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 26, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, yes: a brief search of the CBA could have answered my own question.
Arbitration awards have to be announced within 48 hours of the hearing. The team then has 7 days to accept or walk away from the award.
To borrow some poker terminology, I’d like to see McPhee walk way “in the dark”. That is, say beforehand that unless they win the arb they are walking away.
Well maybe I wouldn’t like to see that, but it would be fun to watch.
Choking since 1985.
Part of me would really like to see GMGM’s karaoke version of “Poker Face.”
Preferably done in the style of Eric Cartman.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
2 Mil..I would have a hard time saying he should get anymore. Every season Flash sputters out and then pulls a Semin in the playoffs..and it’s getting old. J.P. both of your arguments were perfect and I bet it isn’t much different than that.
I wouldn’t pay him more than Tomas Plekanec. That’s for sure.
I’m usually on the Flash bandgwagon but I was and still am expecting 2,500,000.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Outstanding work, by both sides. I got the grips when I saw D trot out Wolski and his enviable 3.8M deal, but then I reminded myself that Wolski can actually play center…
Let’s hope MacArthur’s arbitrator is on a beach somewhere and not in Toronto, but I have faith in D. Fishman to bring this home for under 3 million.
More norrissey, less morrissey
y'know...
There is so much green in this thread, I think I’m at a Fighting Sioux hockey game…
If you've read this far...seek help.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 1:00 PM EST)
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