How good is Backstrom's contract now?

In faceoffs – Koivu’s lowest FO% in the last 3 seasons is 52.5%. Backstrom has yet to break 50%. So dead on there.

I think Minnesota might have slghtly overpaid for Koivu, but he also seems to be the heart of their team. So in the long run, it will probably be worth it for them.

I think all of Koivu’s years were UFA.

Interesting, glad to have more of perspective for Mikko. Could not agree more with the last statement; I was trying to imply that sentiment as well.

Really? I think KNtaD said somewhere that Koivu, well, does what is said here, basically Backstrom with less O, more D, and on a worse team.

Ah yes, the Ovechkin makes Backstrom better argument.. same argument that followed Jari Kurri around until Gretzky left Edmonton and Kurri kept on scoring goals.

Certainly playing with Ovechkin helps Nick get lots of points, but the reverse is true, in that Ovechkin gets lots of points because he plays with Backstrom. While Ovechkin was getting some points with Zubrus and Clark as linemates, he didn’t really become the monster he is now (and didn’t win three straight NHLPA Player of the Year Awards) until Nick became his center. It’s not which one makes the other better, it’s that both of them make each other better…

There is no doubt in my mind that a team can win a Stanley Cup with a player like Mikko Koivu, and there is no doubt in my mind that a team can win a Stanley Cup with a player like Nick Backstrom…They’re both championship calibre players.

Any Minnesota fan must be taken with a HEY-UUUUGE grain of salt. Generally speaking, Wild fans here are fiercely loyal, tend to wear blinders and will tend to rationalize anything the team does as ok, due to the fact they don’t want to have their team taken away again. :-)

Yeah, I think Backstrom could have seen $7.5M AAV as a FA, and been locked in for fewer years.

I’m glad you mentioned the “best-player-on-the-team” factor in regard to Koivu. It certainly has bearing on the final dollar amount; his value relative to the rest of his teammates is higher, and he should be paid like it.

I followed the btn link above, then the link in the comments by the poster Derek Zona of Copper & Blue (he believes Backstrom is buoyed by Ovechkin) to “WOWY: Ovechkin,” by Tyler Dellow at www.mc79hockey.com.

The statistical piece does argue that Ovi “drives the bus” on the Caps and takes the position that Backstrom would not put up the same numbers with a different line mate.

Now I believe that Ovi helps everyone’s numbers—he’s that dominant—but I also believe that Backstrom is far more capable of producing at an elite level even if he’s not with Ovi. But I have to admit, the statistics were beyond me. I could understand the point of the article, but I really couldn’t say if WOWY is a good statistical measure or if his analysis was sound.

Any of you many statistical whizzes care to figure that piece out?

If Backstrom were somehow a UFA, he’d be getting paid more than what Kovalchuk will get. He’s an elite player at the most important F position, and the secret’s out. That said, of course his stats (G, A, +/-, etc) are inflated by playing with Ovie. One of Ovie’s many great qualities is that he creates more time and space – and distracts the D and G’s attention – from everyone else.

I don’t think Koivu’s deal is a bad one. My concern about it if I were a Wild fan would be his performance later in the deal as he gets older (esp. given the NMC), but he’s a great, complete player that plays in relative obscurity. More importantly, the Wild cannot afford to lose him, so they opened the vault a little. If I were them I’d be a lot less concerned with Koivu’s deal than I would be with, say, Havlat’s.

Just to be clear, are you trying to suggest that Koivu is a better player than Backstrom?

there are holes in the From the Rink post in regards to Backstrom.

We know that Backstrom’s numbers fall off precipitously when he’s away from Alex Ovechkin…

Evidence? Absolutely none is provided. And quite honestly, I’m too lazy to go hunting it all down myself at 10:30 on a Friday night. But if someone is going to toss out a statement like that, they need to back it up. And to be perfectly honest, yeah, Backstrom’s numbers probably do drop off when he’s not playing with Ovie, because he’s not playing with Alex Friggin’ Ovechkin. We’ve all seen the “Ovechkin effect” on his line-mates. But Backstrom is an elite player all on his own.

People howl about how Ovie’s numbers are inflated by playing in the Southeast, which is absolutely not true. Give me some time, I might be able to find some of those nice breakdowns. The past couple of seasons, Ovie’s played better against the Atlantic division than the Southeast. Haven’t looked at the numbed, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if that’s the same for Backstrom.

The “southeast effect” is real, but the elite guys are elite against all competition, and Backstrom is a still-developing elite talent.

Another interesting thing to consider is that of the top 30 point producers this year, 9 of the 30 came from the SE.

Yes, but those players are also widely recognized as some of the best in the world! Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Stamkos, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Eric Staal. That is a murderer’s row of scorers (that all also happen to get paid huge money). Do you assert that these players have inflated statistics because they are all in the SE division? Ask Vokoun how much he enjoys these players during the season.

One objection, your honor.

Backstrom DOES kill penalties. He’s usually part of the PK for the Caps. I’ll never forget the time he was on PK duty and lost his stick (or his stick was broken) and he was one of the PK heroes. Someone afterwards posted a Swedish video where Backstrom was a hero as a result of this.

(And we were hearing all kinds of posts here about Nicky having great hockey haunches.)

Also, given that GoPens! is already aware that Koivu’s “quality of competition” is overstated, and that AO’s is pretty high (and Nick always plays with AO, right?), then why would he try to base his argument on these numbers? Aside from their fatal inherent flaws, he knows they aren’t even really supporting his position. Isn’t there a word for that…

The Southeast Effect… never heard it called that before. I assume you mean that players who play in the Southeast division tend to score more goals than players in other divisions because the teams play each other a whole bunch… In 2009-10, the Caps played a grand total of 24 games against their division rivals. The Pens, and other eastern teams, played 16 games against those teams, a difference of 8 games. 10% of the season….doesn’t seem like it’s a whole lot of difference.

How about we compare some players and their numbers against these teams (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Florida and Carolina).

Let’s start with Alex:
Vs. Southeast: 29 points in 19 games (1.53 ppg)
Vs. Everyone else: 80 points in 63 games (1.27 ppg)

And Nick:
Vs. Southeast: 31 points in 24 games (1.29 ppg)
Vs. Everyone else: 70 points in 58 games (1.21 ppg)

Now let’s pick two other eastern conference players and their results against the same 4 teams. Results against Washington will go in the “everyone else” category:

Sid:
Vs. Southeast: 15 points in 16 games (0.94 ppg)
Vs. Everyone Else: 94 points in 55 games (1.71 ppg…impressive)

Geno:
Vs. Southeast: 15 points in 15 games (1.00 ppg)
Vs. Everyone Else: 62 points in 52 games (1.19 ppg)

If it’s because of the Southeast division, I would expect that quality players on other teams might follow the trend of Alex and Nick and have more points against those 4 teams…

Now, for fun:

Sid:
Vs. Atlantic: 44 points in 24 games (1.83 ppg… again impressive)
Vs. Everyone else: 65 points in 57 games (1.14 ppg)

Geno:
Vs. Atlantic: 27 points in 21 games (1.29 ppg)
Vs. Everyone else: 50 points in 46 games (1.09 ppg)

So maybe there’s an Atlantic Division effect?

I’m not going to do the Caps players against the Atlantic… this is left as an exercise to the reader.

What I see here is not that quality players don’t do well because of the quality of the opposition, they do well because they are quality players. They do better overall against teams in their own division because these teams are in the division. The Caps see the Atlanta, Florida, Tampa and Carolina more often than Pittsburgh does and consequently the better players on the Caps play better against those teams. When you play an opponent more and more often you pick up things, you learn. Quality players learn a lot from playing against a team and all of the players above are quality players, and they all learn quite a bit. Familiarty breeds contempt, but it also breed knowledge. Sid, Geno, Nick and Alex use that knowledge to their advantage.

Semin, of course, had to be different and make the NE his personal shooting gallery this past season.

There’s no such thing as a Southeast effect. Most of the elite players have better point/game totals in their own divisions. Check out Crosby’s numbers vs. the Atlantic as opposed to the rest of the league. In 24 games against the Atlantic division, Sid had 44 points. Against everyone else, Sid had 65 points in 57 games.

I haven’t done a complete analysis, but I bet that if you took the top 20 or 30 scorers in the league, most would have a higher points/game average in their division than outside due mostly to familiarity with the opposition.

Good question, and I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not here to try and compare the two players, just the contracts.

Of course, it remains to be seen if Backs can maintain 100 point/season production over the course of his deal, but I wouldn’t bet against it. 6.75M is a relative bargain for an elite center now, and the contract will be an absolute steal when he hits his prime. Jordan is a nice player with upside, and 4M seems fair, based on his growing into a top 6 role. It was definitely the right move for Shero to make at the time.

Backstrom because he’s more underpaid relative to what the open market would bear, he produces more relative to his contract, and he plays a more important role on the Caps.

I’d sure rather have Jordan Staal at $4M than Koivu at $7M.