Another Look at Neuvirth and Varlamov
by J.P. on Jun 29, 2010 11:01 AM EDT
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PrintIn our endless pursuit of presenting different metrics by which to measure the Caps' young goaltenders (recall last week's post on Quality Starts), let's take a quick look at goals against per 30 shots (GA/30). As Brodeur is a Fraud describes it:
[The stat] is pretty much just a translation of save percentage (GA/30 = (1 - Sv%) * 30), but the advantage is that it results in figures that look like goals against averages. GAAs are more familiar and intuitive for most people to understand than save percentages, and allow a better sense of the actual difference between goalie performance on a per-game basis.
The Contrarian Goaltender tweaks the formula to adjust for different situations (even strength versus power play), which yields results in which in 2009-10, Tuukka Rask led the League at 2.17 GA/30, and Jose Theodore was 20th at 2.68 (minimum 35 starts).
So how'd the Caps' kids do? Given that Semyon Varlamov had a 2.55 GAA and Michal Neuvirth sported a 2.75 mark, you might assume that Varlamov fared better in GA/30, too. You'd be wrong, though.
Recall that the "traditional" metric that matters here is save percentage, where Neuvy bested Varly by .914 to .909. Throw in the fact that Neuvirth faced more than three-and-a-half more shots per sixty minutes than Varlamov did (31.9 to 28.2) and a heavy weighting on shorthanded performance (where the two performed at opposite ends of the spectrum, with Varly among the League's worst), and Neuvirth comes out on top. By a lot.
Neuvirth had a 2.54 GA/30, a mark that would put him in the top baker's dozen goalies in the League if he'd had the requisite 35 starts. Varlamov, on the other hand, had a fat 2.89 GA/30 (which only dropped to 2.86 in the playoffs). On the plus side, Varlamov was fantastic at even strength, with a save percentage that ranked seventh among goaltenders who started as many games as he did.
As with any statistical comparison of these two, keep in mind the very small sample size. But add this to the mountain of data suggesting that the Caps would be fine entering 2010-11 with the two youngsters in net... and hope that Varlamov and the rest of the penalty kill get markedly better. Fast.
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Nice. An interesting metric.
So, given all this, is it really a given that Varly will be the #1 coming out of training camp?
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Absolutely not. I’d imagine it’ll be a competition from Day One until, well, it isn’t.
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I’d think that doing well again in the postseason (albeit at the AHL) would lend to things being much more closer competition-wise than we’d think. Personally Neuvirth’d have to shoot the lights out in September to do it, and even then I’m not sure, based on what we know about the whole Flash/Fehr conundrum.
Look at this signature line. Notice the lack of spelling errors and self-whoring?
by Bald Pollack on Jun 29, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree. I’m not sure how much boost Neuvy gets since BB wasn’t his coach in HER, but BB has to have more confidence that Neuvy can show up in the playoffs than he had in Theo. That alone makes it a closer competition. I expect it to be a “ride the hot hand” season between the kids.
I waited all year for this?
Two thoughts – one being that I hope the coach and organization will have the patience and intestinal fortitude to allow both of their young goalies to fail a bit, and not panic and yank them after one or even three bad starts. The corollary being that the team in front of these two rookies had best work on responsible defensive play.
The second being that Neuvi won his championship this summer, and Varly didn’t. Admittedly Team Czech > Texas Stars, but Neuvi imposed his will on the Stars in Game Six when his teammates had all but abandoned him to start celebrating.
by EmilyB on Jun 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
My real hope (somewhat related) is that they give each guy a fair shot. It’s pretty clear that, to date, they’ve preferred Varly, sometimes at Neuvirth’s expense, and while Varly’s NHL resume does have a few more lines to it (namely playoff success), I’d hope that they’d start with a blank slate on each and go from there.
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by J.P. on Jun 29, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Varly’s NHL resume includes playoff success, but it also includes a couple of notable playoff failures. Whereas Neuvirth has two consecutive playoff championships, albeit at a lower level of competition. Which is a long way of saying I agree — there shouldn’t be a clear leader going into camp/the season. They should be starting even. But coaches are human and it’s probably impossible not to be swayed by past experience.
by CapitalCentre on Jun 29, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of the initial preference for Varly was down to the fact that he had played in a professional league prior to joining the organization in 08-09, whereas Neuvirth had played in major juniors. After that, I think Varly’s performance in the 08-09 playoffs colored the organization’s perspectives on their relative standing.
Personally, I’ve always preferred Neuvy. I think his glove hand is quicker, I think he’s better handling the puck, and I think his technique and rebound control make life easier on his defensemen.
It will be interesting to see the results now that they’re both (ostensibly) #1 goalies with the big club.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Ha. Neuvy is better playing the puck. That sure is damning for Varlamov because Neuvirth is certainly not a good puck handler.
Varly was further along the development curve when they were drafted and his higher athleticism made him a better NHL option when neither guy was technically sound enough to play in the NHL yet. Now Neuvirth has had time to work on his game so I don’t think that athleticism difference will be as big a deal.
I’m not sure if Neuvirth’s glove is “quicker,” but I do think it’s more reliable. Varlamov’s problem hasn’t usually been that he can’t get his glove hand where it needs to be, it’s been either catching the puck or getting lazy and dropping his glove hand (which can make it look like it’s slow when it’s really a technique issue).
I waited all year for this?
Puck handling is why I’m keeping a sharp eye on Holtby. He’s green yet, but he can play the puck.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
At this point, with the trapezoid, puck handling is a little overrated. What I’m much more concerned about is communication with the D. Varly can’t speak English well enough to communicate with the D at this point.
I waited all year for this?
not that what Tarik writes should be taken as gospel, but I recall reading this spring that Varly is near-fluent in English these days.
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Yeah, I’m not sure Varley’s English is much of a problem. I met him outside practice, and he seemed to understand everything that people said to him and could respond. I think he is far from the “leave it,” “play it” days of a couple seasons ago.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jun 29, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Further to that point (and completely speculative), Neuvirth’s probably had played/had communication built-in with Carlznerson than Varlamov’s had with the other remaining defensemen.
Look at this signature line. Notice the lack of spelling errors and self-whoring?
by Bald Pollack on Jun 29, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I think Varly plays the pucks better than Neuvy does but they both leave a lot to be desired. Irbe is\was a terrible puck handler so I don’t know how much he’ll be able to influence there.
I thought Varlys glove looked pretty good from a bit before the playoffs started until the Caps were knocked out. Neuvy is just so positionally sound that I think it makes parts of him look naturally better since he makes it look “easy.”
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
I’m chalking Neuvi’s NHL puckhandling to nerves – his puckhandling in Hershey is better than Varly’s in the NHL. I know – apples and oranges, but given the small number of games that Neuvy has played in the NHL, I think grading him on those is a bit harsh.
Varly has had a tendency to let his glove drop, particularly when he gets fatigued. It wasn’t surprising to me that the Habs shot high glove at every opportunity. It looked better in this playoff series than it had in the past, but it’s still an exploitable weakness that other teams are clearly aware of.
As a position player, I find it easier to play in front of goalies like Neuvy. It’s easier to tell without looking if you’re screening them and it’s easier to predict where rebounds will go. Maybe that’s just me though…
Like I said, it’ll be interesting to see how things unfold now that they’re both (apparently) up here for good.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Neuvi not only won a championship this summer, he won a championship last summer and two summers before that. He’s won his league championship 3 of the last 4 seasons. He imposed his will against TEX, and most of what I read said he was the main reason HER was able to hang on and defeat MAN. He won the Calder Cup MVP last season and, while I’m not sure if they award it or not, he was definitely the OHL MVP when he took Plymouth to the OHL championship.
Varly has been favored, and it’s not without reason, but I’m optimistic that Neuvi gets a fair chance. For one, they seem to know they finally have to give him a chance and see what they’ve got. Second, he played pretty well when he got a chance to practice with the NHL club last season (for the most part). And finally, and most importantly, Varlamov will get hurt and give Neuvirth an extended look.
I waited all year for this?
I'm not entirely clear on the rules...
but would it be possible to match goalies based on the situation, much in the same way baseball managers bring up a righty or lefty reliever? Is the anything that would prevent a coach from using one goalie at even strength and one on the powerplay? Or is there a rule that once a goalie is pulled they cannot return?
#NeedsMoreBradley
No such rule, but it sounds a little… um… unconventional. Throwing a cold goalie in for a PK has disaster written all over it.
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(To say nothing of the fact that I would be extremely hesitant to use the tiny sample as evidence that Varly’s not a good PK’ing goalie or that Neuvy is.)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Oh I know its too small a sample size to be statistically significant, but it just was the first thing that popped into my head. Im playing hypotheticals, but what if you did have an even-strength goalie and a specialist goalie. Maybe some goalies DO perform better in one situation or the other… someone has to be the first to try new things….
#NeedsMoreBradley
anything that would prevent a coach from using one goalie at even strength and one on the powerplay?
If you (the coach) do that and the other team scores it makes it look like a terrible decision instead of it just being another powerplay goal.
The players will think you’re nuts.
The other team will think you’re a joke.
You’ll also have two very unhappy goalies. One will be upset since they are not being trusted for the situation.
The other will be because they are getting thrown into losing situations over and over.
If you put a goalie in for two penalties where they played a total of 1.5 minutes and let in 2 goals. They’d have a GAA of 80. NOT .80, 80.00
Goaltending is so very mental. I can’t imagine a tandem ever performing this well. They’d both be exhausted from trying to mentally and physically prepare for a circus show.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
by zephyr on Jun 29, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
true, but on the other side of the coin, if it works you’re a genius. Way back in football, people thought the forward pass was a joke….
Im just bored and my mind…. it wanders….
#NeedsMoreBradley
I don’t think the coach looks like a genius if it works. Who’s to say the other goalie wouldn’t have killed the penalty? To me it’s more like a dodged bullet.
Maybe if it works at 99% you could say that.
Anyway, I support the thinking, I was just answering things that would prevent a coach from doing that.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Right. There have been situations when coaches switch goalies for a shootout and it hasn’t exactly worked out great. Doing it mid-game has disaster written all over it.
I waited all year for this?
And then again, sometimes they’re forced to, like the day Martin Gerber became Martin Goober and CuJo had to rescue him.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
That game was CuJos swansong.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Pity it had to be against us, but yes.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
I never felt one way or another about CuJo prior to that game, until I heard he had the equipment guys make a 37 Kolzig jersey for him to send to Olie. Classy guy.
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But add this to the mountain of data suggesting that the Caps would be fine entering 2010-11 with the two youngsters in net.
Hear, hear!
I think this definitely says a lot more about how strong the Capitals goaltending is looking for next year rather than either goalie individually.
This years training camp and first few months of the season will be a very interesting one in the crease!
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Why is this metric broken down by 30 shots? I’m guessing 30 shots is the league average in shots per game or something? I read the Fraud article and the original Tom Tango article, but neither explicitly gave a reason. It seems like Awad’s GVT formula where he includes constants that are not explained entirely, though this is much simpler than GVT.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jun 29, 2010 11:59 AM EDT reply actions
I’d say it probably is because 30 is somewhere near the league average and it’s at least something you normally see in a game. It might be a little on the high side but it’s a little more round than, say, 27.
I waited all year for this?
just a quick glance through the 2009-2010 numbers, 30 looks about right. The Caps averaged 30.9 shoots against in this past season, ranking 18th (1st being Chicago at 25.1 sa/g; worst was Florida at 34.1 sa/g)
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That’s good enough an explanation for me then. It just wasn’t immediately obvious when I read the articles.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jun 29, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Florida is bad at preventing shots, but there’s also a counting bias at Sunrise. Hawerchuk’s (Or it might have been Ferrari or Awad) mentioned that you see more shots against at FLA than you’d expect given the way things behave elsewhere in the league and the way FLA plays on the road.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting, and thanks. My warning bells should have gone off when the 29th place team was at 33.4. That’s a rather large spread.
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With the high number of shots against Florida, it’s had the side effect of making Vokoun look like a superstar goalie in Strat-o-matic Hockey. My husband’s quite the devotee of Strat-o-matic sports and had replayed both the 2007-2008 and 2009-2009 NHL seasons and, both times, Florida won the South East Division. Yes, the same team that just missed the playoffs both years.
(Gee! Wonder if Florida will win the South East for 2009-2010 in Strat-o-matic for my husband.)
It’s interesting on what the statistical distortion could have caused.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Here is an amazing set of numbers. In two years of playoff hockey in the AHL, Michal Neuvirth has played in elimination games twice (Games 6 and 7 of the 2009 Calder quarterfinals). His record is 2-0, 0.00, 1.00 (that’s right, two shutouts to close a series).
He has played in nine “close-out games” (Hershey needing one win to clinch a series). His record is 8-1, 1.20, .947 with four shutouts.
That’s a pretty good working definition of “money.”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 29, 2010 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
TWO elimination games?! That’s it? That’s just insane. Never mind the numbers from those games.
I cannot wait to see what he does in Washington this season.
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If he pulls anything close to that in the NHL, I think we’ll be all right, somehow.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Yeah, he’s crazy flexible.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
I’ve always thought I was in the minority, but I have always preferred Neuvirth’s style over Varly’s. Varly is the more explosive of the two, but I feel as if Neuvirth is the more technical of the two, as he is rarely out of position.
I feel like Neuvy is the calmer of the two as well and just remains as cool as a cucumber no matter what the situation. Both guys have outrageous potential, Varlamov probably having the higher ceiling due to his athletic prowess, but I feel as if Neuvirth will have the steadier, more succesful career. Bottom line is that the Caps look pretty good in net for years to come, especially with the youngster Holtby rising in the ranks.
Grubsy is a good prospect too, at least at this point.
I’ve been for Neuvirth for a while, and I’m pretty much at this point all on board. I also think Varlamov’s style’s going to lead to more injuries, and while Neuvirth has suffered injuries, I don’t think it’s his style that lead to them. Who knows?
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
with both of them, I hope they know we expect a little more out of our goalies in DC. They have some big shoes to fill.
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The Caps have had quite a churning of goalies dressing for games (not necessarily play) in the past two seasons (five, by my count — Theodore, Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Leonhardt). But there was quite a crowd moving through behind Kolzig in the years before that, too. Going back another four seasons (2003-04 through 2007-08) there were Kolzig, Huet, Johnson, Cassivi, Ouellet, Yeats, Stana, Charpentier, Sneezy, Grumpy, Dasher, Blitzen, and the Dionne Quintuplets.
If you've read this far...seek help.
you’re missing a couple from the last two season. Johnson and Machesney in 08-09 and Cash in 09-10 (please don’t ask me to spell his name!). Cheese and Cash both dressed for a game each, iirc.
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(please don’t ask me to spell his name!)
Bacashihuahauauaa?
I can’t spell it either without looking, but it’s Bacashihua.
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and I suppose I should amend that to read, “We expect a little more out of our starting goalies”
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Both Varlarmov and Neuvirth had groin issues last season: Varly was out for over 2 months, Neuvy several weeks around the Olympic Break. It’s one thing if it’s for a game or two, but can the team trust Holtby to fill in for an extended period? Would it be better to have a (relatively cheap) veteran goalie on hand, or should they just wait until it’s needed and hope someone is out there on waivers, like when Philly picked up Leighton?
"HISTORY DOESN’T MATTER!!! .... Who cares if it’s never been done? We aren’t those teams who failed before. We are in control of our own destiny, and we will make it happen our own way.." - A Gordon, June 2010
Varly quickly seems headed to “if only he could stay healthy!” territory, while Neuvy has seemed much more durable. I don’t recall him being injured much, if at all, in 08-09.
#savethekittens!
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Varly actually recovered from the groin injury after around month, then had a rehab start in Hershey, and promptly sprained his knee when he was ran into during the game. Supposedly after the second injury he was working with the Caps trainers on flexibility and strength to prevent future injuries. Once he came back, he didn’t get any additional injuries that I know of. Hard to say what will happen with him next year. Neuvy also had some injuries last season, although I don’t think he missed as many games as Varly. Let’s hope Holtby is ready when needed. Does Holtby have a history of injuries?
It seemed that it took forever for Varly to get back in the groove after that second injury. (I felt like he probably needed another game or two in Hershey after that start against Wllkes Barre where he started off poorly.) But planning for the Olympics probably messed that up.
Rocking the Red since 1975
On the goalies, I assume that both Varly and Neuvy will get plenty of work this coming season, regardless of who’s “officially” designated as #1.
Holtby can certainly use the seasoning at Hershey but he advanced better than anyone expected. Everyone assumed he’d be spending the season with the South Carolina Stingrays but he played so well that he remained with the Bears even when Neuvy was back. I think more seasoning will help him when it comes to the Calder Cup playoffs for next year.
(I’m sure Holtby will probably also get an occasional start for the Caps when one of the other guys is injured.)
Rocking the Red since 1975
I’m not sure you care, JP, but just thought you’d like to know this was linked today on ESPN’s rumors page (insider). Makin’ it big, even if ESPN treats hockey like an adopted step-sister.
Oh, nice, thanks. I’m no insider – any chance you pass along what they wrote?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Caps could stand pat in net
It’s been widely assumed that the Washington Capitals would target a free agent goaltender once the market opens on July 1, and sure enough, a cursory search of any rumor mill will bring their name up in discussions of certain goalies.
But what if they just stick with their young netminders instead? That’s an angle that Japers Rink has been exploring, and on Tuesday, he presented some interesting statistical backup for why the team might be well-served sticking with what they’ve got.
Using goals against per 30 shots as a metric, Michal Neuvirth put up a ratio that would’ve landed him in the league’s Top 13 had he had enough starts to qualify. Meanwhile, Semyon Varlamov didn’t fare quite as well, but overall his save percentage was one of the league’s best at even strength.
And hey, the Chicago Blackhawks just showed everyone that a goalie that’s thin on experience can lead a team all the way to the Stanley Cup, so perhaps the problem isn’t really between the pipes after all.
speaking of Varly's playoffs
I guess we all forget this one. In 2007-2008 Varly went all the way to the finals (at that time it was Superliga not KHL) with his team (Yaroslavl). He was 19 at that time. I guess You can count this for smth. By the way, where was Neuvi at that time?
Although Superliga and KHL, to that matter, as whole, is so far from NHL. But you can take several teams, that in terms of salary and roster talent are comparable with NHL clubs. If you transplant them to NHL, they would be pretty Edmonton-esque, but still better than several expansions teams in their first years.
Perfer et obdura; dolor hic tibi proderit olim.
Where was Neuvy, you asked?
From Hockey Futures:
2007-08: Neuvirth spent the 2007-08 season roaming around the OHL, playing for three different clubs by the end. He finished with a combined 17-7-5-6-3 and was ninth in the league with a .911 save percentage. He enjoyed a seven-game winning streak from 10/27 – 11/25, including three wins with Plymouth and win in his first four games after being traded to Windsor. He won back-to-back games after he was acquired by Oshawa (1/10 – 1/11) and had four outings with 50-plus saves for Oshawa: two overtime losses and two shootout losses. He stopped a season-high 55 shots in a 5-4 shootout loss to Kingston on Mar. 7. He played nine playoff games for Oshawa and posted a 7-2-0 record before suffering a season-ending injury. He won his first five playoff starts, leading the Generals to a first-round sweep of Ottawa. He made 46 saves in a 2-1 win at Ottawa on Mar. 25, all the while posting a .932 save percentage (fifth in the OHL) and a 2.49 GAA (sixth) for the playoffs. He also represented the Czech Republic in the World Junior Championship.
"HISTORY DOESN’T MATTER!!! .... Who cares if it’s never been done? We aren’t those teams who failed before. We are in control of our own destiny, and we will make it happen our own way.." - A Gordon, June 2010
by bagace on Jun 30, 2010 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
thanks anyway, but you miss the point
The question was pure rhetorical. Well, probably, I was not very clear, but I’m not fan of using something like “/rhetoric(sarcasm) mode on/”
What I mean, you just can not compare OHL and Superliga.
Perfer et obdura; dolor hic tibi proderit olim.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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