Capitals' Fan Draft Primer: 2010 Edition
by David Getz on Jun 25, 2010 11:30 AM EDT
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The season's over, the Cup has been awarded, the Rink Wraps are,um, wrapped and the mind of hockey fans, both on SBN and elsewhere, are turning to the NHL draft. With that in mind, we here at Japers' Rink have put together a draft primer for Capitals fans. Make the jump for all the information about the organization's strengths, weaknesses, prospects, and targets that you'll need heading in to this weekend's festivities.
Capitals Draft Picks
(1) Round 1, pick 26, 26th overall
(3) Round 3, pick 26, 86th overall
(4) Round 4, pick 26, 116th overall
(5) Round 5, pick 22, 142th overall
(5) Round 5, pick 26, 146th overall
(6) Round 6, pick 26, 176th overall
Capitals Top Prospects
These are the organization’s top prospects, regardless of position. After their names you will find their position and the team with which they finished up last season.
(1) John Carlson - Defense, Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Karl Alzner - Defense, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Michal Neuvirth - Goalie, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Marcus Johansson - Center/Left Wing, Färjestads, SEL
(5) Mathieu Perreault - Center, Hershey Bears, AHL
(6) Cody Eakin - Center, Hershey Bears, AHL
(7) Dmitri Orlov - Defense, Metallurg Novokuznetsk, KHL
(8) Braden Holtby - Goalie, Hershey Bears, AHL
(9) Andrew Gordon - Right Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL
(10) Stefan Della Rovere - Left Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL
Top Prospects by Position
Left Wing
(1) Stefan Della Rovere - Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Greg Burke - University of New Hampshire, NCAA (Hockey East)
(3) Andrew Glass - Boston University, NCAA (Hockey East)
Center
(1) Marcus Johansson - Färjestads, SEL
(2) Mathieu Perreault - Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Cody Eakin - Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Anton Gustafsson - Borås HC, HockeyAllsvenskan
(5) Jay Beagle - Hershey Bears, AHL
(6) Kyle Wilson - Hershey Bears, AHL
(7) Phil DeSimone - University of New Hampshire, NCAA (Hockey East)
(8) Jake Hauswirth - South Carolina Stringrays, ECHL
(9) Trevor Bruess - South Carolina Stringrays, ECHL
Right Wing
(1) Andrew Gordon - Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Dmitri Kugryshev - Quebec Remparts, QMJHL
(3) Francois Bouchard - Hershey Bears, AHL
Defense
(1) John Carlson - Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Karl Alzner - Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Dmitri Orlov - Metallurg Novokuznetsk, KHL
(4) Patrick McNeill - Hershey Bears, AHL
(5) Zach Miskovic - Hershey Bears, AHL
(6) Patrick Wey - Boston College, NCAA (Hockey East)
(7) Josh Godfrey - South Carolina Stingrays (ECHL)
Goalie
(1) Michal Neuvirth - Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Brandon Holtby - Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Dan Dunn - St. Cloud State, NCAA (WCHA)
Organization Strengths
(1) Goaltending. Semyon Varlamov has established himself as an NHL goaltender. Michael Neuvirth has played well in the NHL and demonstrated he has nothing left to prove at the AHL level. Both are just 22 years old. Braden Holtby - himself just 20 and only two years removed from having been drafted - posted a 2.32 GAA and a .917 save percentage in 35 games with Hershey last year. Suffices to say that the future in net looks very bright for the Washington Capitals, even if we can't be sure exactly what it's going to look like.
(2) Defense. John Carlson and Karl Alzner alone are enough to make this one of the organization's strengths, as both have very high ceilings and are low risk. Dimitri Orlov and Patrick McNeill add some depth to the prospect ranks, and it's too early to write off either Patrick Wey or Zack Miskovic.
(3) A well-rounded prospect group. Of the Capitals top ten prospects, five are forwards, three are defensemen, and two are goalie (and Semyon Varlamov's not even on the list). Among the forwards, Perreault projects as a playmaker, Eakin a goal-scorer, Johansson a two-way forward, and Gordon and Della Rovere as grinders. On the back end, all three prospects have potential at both ends of the ice, with Alzner's ceiling probably being higher in his own end and Orlov's higher on the attack.
Organization Weaknesses
(1) Size up front. One of last year's weaknesses is back and, given the trade of Oskar Osala and Anton Gustafsson's disappointing 2009-10 season, is as much of a problem as it was last year. That's not to say the Capitals don't have good forwards - if anything, their prospect pool is better than it was last year, overall and up front - but the additions of Eakin, Gordon, and Della Rovere to the top prospects list haven't helped all that much.
(2) First line forwards. Okay, we're grasping at straws here. You have to be a hell of a talent to be expected to become a first-line NHLer, and unless something changes drastically there's going to be pretty steep competition for spots on the Capitals' first line until 2020 or so. Still, it'd be nice to see a top line guy emerge from the Caps' prospect pool. Don't entirely rule out Johansson, Eakin, or even Kugryshev...but don't count on them, either.
Draft Strategy
Last year we focused on the debate over drafting the best overall player versus drafting for need, coming down on the best overall player side. This year, with the Caps' prospect group even more well-rounded both in terms of position and skill set, it makes even more sense for George McPhee and front office staff to be in the best available player camp. With that in mind, what we're going to look at is drafting based on upside versus drafting on likelihood of the prospect becoming a contributor at the NHL level. In short, should the Caps be looking at high-risk, high-reward players or low-risk, low-reward guys?
You can use the team's strong standing to argue either way, taking the stance that the quality of the Capitals' existing prospects means the team can afford to gamble because they will have a deep prospect pool regardless of what happens in this year's draft, or the stance that what has made the Caps' system so good is the fact the organization has so many players with NHL potential and that it makes sense to add more-known quantities and be assured increase the team's total assets.
With where the Capitals organization is right now, it makes more sense for them to take a cautious approach, and draft players who they're confident will one day be NHL regulars, even if it also means drafting players with lower ceilings, in equal parts because the Caps have less to lose from the high risk players and more to gain from the low risk players than most teams. The young high-end talent means the Capitals won't be hurting for a core to build around in the near future, and Leonsis' willingness to spend on team payroll means the team won't have to hope their most productive players are on entry-level (or close to entry-level) contracts, so there's no reason the team needs to find a diamond in the rough.
On the other hand, there are reasons to think the team needs young players it can count on to come in and support its long-term core. With the team a serious contender, it's fairly likely the Capitals will be in a position where it makes sense to deal prospects, picks, or both in order to upgrade the NHL squad, and being unable to restock the farm system could wind up leaving it barren after a couple of seasons. Plus, while the team shouldn't need young players on entry-level contracts to come in and be superstars, it will need ones who can come in and play auxiliary roles.
Does this mean the Capitals shouldn't take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward guy under the right circumstances? Of course not. If, say, Kiril Kabanov were still available in the second round and the Caps had the opportunity to trade up by moving an expendable asset, it might be a risk worth taking. But right now the most important thing is for the Capitals to come out of draft day with at least one guy they're sure will become a contributor at the NHL level down the road.
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Great take DMG, all the regulars know I agree with this position. GMGM needs to get 1-2 players that will contribute at the NHL level with every draft just to keep the farm sustainable. If a guy like Burmistrov or Tarasenko falls because of the “Russian Factor” then I’d snap them up in a second, but I wouldn’t take Kabanov in the first round. I think it’s much more important that we get a guy that will be in the NHL than getting a guy with game breaking talent. That’s one of hte big reasons I like Brock Nelson. He probably won’t ever be a true 1C in the NHL, but that’s OK. He projects to be a 2C that might fall to 3C, but either way he should end up in an NHL lineup. He also is going to take a few years to develop so his salary escalation won’t be as quick as some of the other prospects we’ve gotten used to. And I completely agree that if GMGM can somehow scare up a second pick in the top two rounds, then maybe you take a flyer. I wonder what player might be expendable and could bring back a 2 in return…
There are some curious things in your analysis, though. Eakin over MP? I love the Eakin pick and I’m excited about what he could bring, but I just don’t see how he has jumped MP already. MP has shown he can play and be an impact player at the AHL level, and he showed, if briefly, the ability to compete against NHL players and produce. We’ll see where he tops out, but I think he has to be above Eakin. I don’t necessarily disagree that Kuger is above Bouchard, but it’s a little strange. Kuger is still in the Q, not putting up the same numbers as Bouchard, and generally not doing anything to distinguish himself as exceptional. I don’t think Bouchard is a stud, but at least he’s been playing against adults and he did take a step forward this year (a much needed step forward, at that).
I agree it’s too soon to write of Wey or Miskovic, but we should note that Wey has much more upside and potential. Miskovic already graduated from college so his best developmental years are behind him. Wey is going to one of the best colleges for developing hockey players (though their representation in the NHL doesn’t necessarily reflect that) and still has 3 years to learn there. He’ll also likely be a part of Team USA WJC 2011, though it’s not a lock (especially with 5(!) D from the 2010 U-18 Gold Medal team projected to be drafted in the first two rounds this year).
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on Jun 25, 2010 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
There are some curious things in your analysis, though. Eakin over MP?
That, actually, was a cutting and pasting error and is now fixed.
The thing about Dmitri Kugryshev and Bouchard is just that, for some reason, I don’t have much faith in Bouchard. I think he’s going to be forever tainted in my head from the work ethic and defense concerns we heard about early one.
I can buy that, regarding Bouchard. Like I said, I’m not convinced he’s going to pan out at all. He also was hit with the “disappears in big games” knock early in his career. He didn’t totally disappear for HER but he wasn’t exactly a stud either. Something about him just screams “Flash 2.0”; and even that is probably high praise. That said, Kuger is still in the Q and not lighting the world afire. He just doesn’t excite me the way he initially did. Maybe it has to do with his conditioning issues, but I’m just not confident he’ll ever be much of a contributor for us. So since I don’t think either is going to do very much, I’d give the nod to the guy that did more in the Q, and has (so far) done more against adults. (Did Kuger even get a look with the Black Aces?)
I waited all year for this?
Something about him just screams "Flash 2.0"
You know, I had the same feeling when I writing my earlier comment. I guess I just see his potential as an okay top-six wing who won’t do much on defense, and I see Kugryshev as someone with more potential, especially given he got pretty good praise for his work ethic leading up to the draft.
Kuger arrived at Hershey after his team flamed out in the second round of the Q playoffs. He had a very strong first round, but nearly disappeared in the second round, so I wasn’t surprised that he reported to Hershey with a back injury.
I’d give him a little time to train in the Caps’ system before I write him off. He was pretty productive playing for Patrick Roy, which is a difficult thing in itself and there was a lot of behind-the-scenes intrigue. I think a few weeks or months in a functional system like Caps/Hershey, plus some Russian pals will work well for him.
Coach French did note for me, however, that Kuger “needs to pick up his pace.”
So Kuger has had two poor showing with the Herbies and a critique from French? Not a great sign, even with the back problem (which, in itself isn’t a great sign). He’s done with the Q now, right (assuming the Caps don’t send him for an overage year)? I guess getting into the Caps system will help, but I don’t know how many Russian pals he’ll be around in HER.
I waited all year for this?
It’s hard to explain, but the internal dynamics of his team were pretty dysfunctional. They put a lot of pressure on him to produce (without much backup from the other three lines), and he strained something in the early part of round two. Plus the proverbial “hot goalie”. He had ten points in 9 playoff games, nearly all of them in the first round.
I wouldn’t write him off entirely – let Coach French push him a little.
Ovechkin has five full NHL seasons behind him and no Cup. how many years were in GMGM’s plan?
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.
leonsis had a five year plan to compete for the cup. i’d say they are there. of course, “compete for” and “win” the cup are two entirely different things. IMO, the window is just opening and should stay there for a while.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Jun 25, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly right. When you’re talking sports and you’re talking about a five-year plan, you’re talking about one or both of two things: (1) fielding a competitive team and (2) instilling an organizational plan/structure that allows you to be competitive down the road. No one in management – or at least no one you’d want in management – is going to promise a championship within five years, especially when you’re going through a complete rebuild.
Not complaining about it the time involved here – not at all. Just wondering where GMGM thinks he is, and where he’d like to be. Maybe he’ll never actually tell the whole truth.
After all is said, it’s the players who have to deliver.
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.
Three things:
1) Wayne Gretzky didn’t win the Cup until his 6th season; Yzerman didn’t win until his 12th. Just a reminder that it’s a team game, and being a once-in-a-generation talent doesn’t insure you a Cup.
2) Things don’t always work out according to “plans” – there are 29 other teams competing for the same thing. The idea is, as dcsportsfan1 and DMG said, to field a competitive team within 5 years and they’ve done that.
3) This is a post about where the Caps stand prospect-wise and what we can look for in this weekend’s draft. If you have a comment about the team in general please limit that discussion to the Clips; otherwise vent in a FanPost or take it elsewhere.
by Becca H on Jun 25, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
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Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jun 25, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Japers’ Rink: Temporarily Hockey blogging from the powerful city in the world when it comes to eye candy
FTFY
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Jun 25, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Make the jump for all the information about the organization’s strengths, weaknesses, prospects, and targets
With where the Capitals organization is right now, it makes more sense for them to take a cautious approach, and draft players who they’re confident will one day be NHL regulars
what has made the Caps’ system so good is the fact the organization has so many players with NHL potential
I make the jump and read what someone obviously spent a lot of time putting together. A simple question about building around AO pops into my head, I type it out, and I come back to two condescending comments followed by a snippy one.
I had to back out the first few words of initial response because I like coming here and reading. I couldn’t recall what GMGM’s “plan” was, plain and simple. Looking back, I suppose I could have left AO’s name out of it but, jeez, stop taking this shit so seriously.
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.
A total nitpick...
Under “Draft Strategy”:
it makes even more sense sense
I agree with this, though I’d add that I’d like my size to come with a generous side of sandpaper and perhaps a little bit of intimidation and/or agitation. SDR’s got some of that going on and I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with it.
I’d also like to see whether Steve Pinizzotto could add a little bit of edge to the bottom six. He was called up last year but never really got a look, and I’d like to see him get a look in the pest role. Watching him provoke a Texas Star into trying to tear his head off and then skate off grinning made me think I’d like to see a Cap that could do that.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Rk Players…….. Pos Lge TSN McKn’s ISS THN AVG
36 Brock Nelson C USHS 34 62 26 29 37.8
From Mirtle’s Big Book of Draft Rankings
McKeen’s has him at 62??
If you've read this far...seek help.
That’s pretty normal. Last year after the top crop there was a group of 30-40 guys that were basically indistinguishable. Mackan was ranked lower than where he was picked, but nobody (reputable) was that shocked that he was a first round pick. I think this is going to be the standard for the next several drafts. A few bluechips, and then a large globule of largely equal quality prospects.
I waited all year for this?
Jeffrey Skinner, centre, Kitchener (OHL)
Some teams have fallen for the former nationally ranked Canadian figure skater, who improved by leaps and bounds and could go in the top 10. He scored more goals (50) than Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin, then added another 20 in the playoffs. Ironically, the knock on Skinner is his skating.
is this a Cutting Edge remake in reverse? love the “improved by leaps and bounds” reference…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Jun 25, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
was that why db sweeney was a presenter at the NHL awards?
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Jun 25, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
-From a interview with one of Caps European scouts Mats Weiderstål (that picked Bäckström and I presume Johansson).
In Europe it’s more important to be a well rounded player but when it comes to the nhl it’s more important to have one strong side, a quality that stands out. A player that’s extra tough or a great skater for example.
In Europe we are pleased if a player is well rounded, that they are decently good at everything and don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Over there they ask what is his strength?
What are you aiming for with the 26th pick this year?
My boss thinks that if you come from Europe and move to another country to play in the world’s best league you should have some special qualities. Among other things, it’s the mental aspect; that you always compete and that you care about the small details you have to do every day to get better, the little things that makes you a better player. To have that special personality that always wants to win and get better. That works on the little things in games and practices.
About draft strategy’s
We don’t care if we are well stocked in goal. If a goalie is the best player available we take him. We always take the best player that is available to us at that particular time in the draft.
About Sweden’s chances in this years draft
Last year with six Swedish player’s being picked in the first round will probably never happen again. This year it’s only one player that have a chance to go in the first round; Calle Järnkrok.
What can I say I’m a JP fangirl. I will follow him into the darkest and filthiest of alleys, even the comment section at Puck Daddy.
by Malin A on Jun 25, 2010 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Great stuff, as always. I definitely like the insight about the North American scouts “what is his strength?” versus the European/Swedish approach. It really makes sense when you watch their games. Some of the European teams are more fluid and can more easily move players around to different roles because of the all-around game. Of course, if you are good enough you can play almost anywhere, but you did see Canada have a little bit of a problem finding wings on their Olympic team because the forwards were so much more specialized as center/RW/LW.
And I don’t care about “best player available”, they better not be picking a goalie with the first. Not even if Campbell is still available.
I wouldn’t say that Sweden will never have 6 first round picks again, but it’s a definite long shot. I mean, USA had 10 a few years back and nobody thought they’d do it again… then they did it the next year as well.
I waited all year for this?
and it’s looking likely that this year will set a new record for the number of Americans taken in the first round.
#savethekittens!
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
We probably want get as many picks in the first round next year but I think we will have a top three pick in Adam Larsson.
What can I say I’m a JP fangirl. I will follow him into the darkest and filthiest of alleys, even the comment section at Puck Daddy.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 1:00 PM EST)
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