With the 26th Pick in the SB Nation Mock Draft, the Washington Capitals Select...
by J.P. on Jun 24, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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As you may know, SB Nation has been conducting a mock NHL draft across the network, the results of which you can catch up on here, and which leave us picking for the Caps at 26. After much deliberation, we select... Brock Nelson out of Warroad High School in Minnesota.
Nelson, a 6-3, 205-pound center from the same high school that produced T.J. Oshie, is described as a "hard-skating power-forward" with "soft hands and an excellent shot" that projects to be a second-line center. He doesn't have "any glaring weaknesses as he plays well in all three zones" and will "make his presence known with his strength and ability to get to the net." Put it all together and Nelson "has the size, speed, competitive level, and even bloodlines to be a very good pro." Bloodlines, you say? Yep - Nelson's uncle is former Caps and Miracle-on-Icer Dave Christian, a member of one of pucks' premiere families... and we know how George McPhee loves those bloodlines.
Read more about Nelson at the links above, and be sure to stick with Japers' Rink throughout the Draft, as I'll be out in L.A. taking it all in.
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Hmmm...
I dunno. Jared Tinordi is in there, too… He’s ranked 38th, and is a big defenseman… and his favorite team is the Caps. (OK, yeah, that’s not a reason to take him, but…)
Projects as a top-four defensive defenseman.
…and he has a closer bloodline than Brock Nelson, as the son of former Cap Mark Tinordi.
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That’s why I asked Cullen about Tinordi this past weekend.
by freakinandpeakin on Jun 24, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven’t been floating around much lately… must have missed that conversation. :)
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by IRockTheRed on Jun 24, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Fwiw, Tinordi was taken with the pick before I took Nelson. I’d have likely taken “Little” Tinner had he still been there.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2010 11:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Three NHL.com ‘experts’ posted their mock drafts, and in each of the three, Tinordi was selected at #25 by Vancouver. However, every mock draft conducted prior to yesterday is invalid after the big trade went down yesterday. Chicago has suddenly stockpiled a whole bunch of picks.
That’s interesting, as he’s “ranked” much lower than that – #38. I’d like to hear their reasoning behind saying Vancouver would take him.
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by IRockTheRed on Jun 24, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. :-)
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by IRockTheRed on Jun 24, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Holy crap, I have Nelson going to the Caps, too.
And I think every mock draft in North America has Tinordi going to Vancouver at 25.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 24, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I hadn’t previously looked at the SBN mock draft, but were either of Petrovic or Johns available? If Tinordi does fall to the Caps, I’d take him in a heartbeat, but I didn’t mind what I saw of Petrovic either.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
This pick could go either way, really, be it defense or forward.
In the end, I like this pick, though. He seems to be a power forward with skill and toughness to get to the net, and it helps that he went to the same high school as Oshie.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
"It's not fair. He's just a pitcher." - Dave Jageler
Sprechen sie Englisch?
I grew up in Minnesota and Warroad was sounding familiar to me, wasn’t sure why but gotta love the internet, I found a website with history on Minnesota High School hockey playoffs back to the 1940’s. I was a junior in high school in 1996 and our hockey team made it to the state playoffs for Class A (small schools), held at an arena in St. Paul. Warroad won the state championship in Class A that year, my school came in 4th. I remember riding the bus down to St. Paul to watch the playoff games (yes they let you out of school to attend the hockey playoffs in Minnesota).
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 24, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
(yes they let you out of school to attend the hockey playoffs in Minnesota).
(moves to Minnesota)
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
"It's not fair. He's just a pitcher." - Dave Jageler
Sprechen sie Englisch?
by Steck It Out on Jun 24, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not to mention he’ll be going to the same university as Oshie and Toews: North Dakota(!). If he’s all of those assessments are pretty accurate, I like it. And, who knows, maybe glory will follow him like his three Olympic gold medal winning family members.
If GMGM does end up taking Nelson, I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on him when he starts playing for the Sioux…y’know, make sure he doesn’t throw any lawnmowers into the streets in the early morns…
Fighting Sioux Forever.
Hey….Finley went there too. Do no forget about that. You see how that has worked for the Caps.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
As you know, I like this guy a lot as well. I’d definitely take him over Tinordi if both were available. Not only did he go to the same HS as Oshie, he’s committed to the same college as Oshie (North Dakota). He seems like a relatively safe pick, and it only helps more that he plays a position/style of need for the Caps. We don’t need him to turn into a 1C, but a guy with 2C upside and 3C downside is pretty awesome. He reminds me a lot of David Backes (a bit of a late bloomer, huge, from MN, Captain in HS, NCAA route) and I would be ecstatic if he comes even close to that. Early on it looks like he may have even more offense than Backes, but that’s getting way ahead of ourselves. Great pick, J.P., couldn’t have done it better myself.
I waited all year for this?
I have issues with the Caps taking a college bound player. I just have not seen it work for them…over the last 5-7 years they seem to be the worst picks. Carlson was a good one, but he never went the college route. How about this Nelson if he will not go to college! I like the type of player he is…just hate the bad luck we have with college guys.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps have also never drafted a NCAA-bound forward in the first round under GMGM, although I do agree that this is the guy to take if the first 25 picks turn out that way.
True. The have gone the forward route in later rounds and the defenseman route in the 1st round. Okay, I am willing to give it a try…just no college defenseman in the first round that you cannot talk out of the college route for the London Knights.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And let’s not forget that the forward corps that carried Team USA to WJC Gold was heavily NCAA based. Patrick Stepan was the best USA forward, hands down. Danny Kristo was also a stud, and he’s a North Dakota player as well.
I waited all year for this?
Hey, I never made my comment that I think that it is a bad idea to draft US based NCAA players. There are a ton of talented players from the US, and I love many of them. I just think we have bad luck in drafting NCAA bound players…and I do believe we draft mid-draft too heavily from the NCAA route.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Overdraft the NCAA? I don’t see that. We don’t have all that many guys from the NCAA route.
This link is much more skeptical of Nelson. I hope they are wrong.
I waited all year for this?
In the past 5 years (rounds 2-7) the Capitals have draft 12 players that are either in college or going the college route. 19 players that are in the CHL and 3 players from the international side. 12 players from the college route is high compared to most clubs (and they are low on the international front). Now, lets look at success. The three best players taken with the 12 NCAA picks are probably Seabrook, Wey, and De Simone. None of those guys are top 10 prospects though Wey could do it..but would be a reach. Of the 18 CHL players we have the following on that list, Eakin, Holtby, Della Rovere, Neuvirth, Bouchard, Osala, Perrault..and others that are succeeding in Hershey. That is a pretty good record in the CHL. There have been misses from CHL, but that will always happen. International we have Orlov, Kugryshev and Dovgan.
My point is, in the last 5 years our success rate on 12 selections is probably between 0 and 5%, our success rate when drafting from the CHL in the 40% range, and Internationally it is in the 60% range (though very small sampling). If you look at our worst draft years since 2005 (not including first round) they are 2005 and 2007 when we were heavier draft from the college route. I am not suggesting we do not take NCAA bound players…it just has proven not to work for us.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think that’s a particularly dispositive analysis. Like you noted, they were mostly later picks and those picks by definition are a reach. It’s also hard to keep such a clean analysis. Seabrook was committed to UD, but ended up going to the WHL. Kuger is a Russian playing in the Q, so he really fits both. Osala is also a foreigner in the Q, and I don’t think I consider him a success at this point. Your 40% target is really not accurate either. Bottom line, after round 1 it’s a crap shoot no matter where you pull from.
I waited all year for this?
I do not disagree. My focus was the year they were drafted which scouting draft probably watched them the most. That is why Osala is aligned to CHL, Kuger is International and Seabrook in NCAA. The 40% was a rough estimate…it is probably lower. After round 1 it is a crap shoot, but we have shot pretty well when drafting from the CHL or International and we have only found crap when going the USHL or NCAA route. Tell me one guy that you think has a real chance of making the Capitals (or another NHL team) in the next 5-7 years that we have taken from the USHL or NCAA post the first round. Maybe Seabrook and Wey…that is it. That is 2 of 12. Now do it for the CHL and if you hit 4, then we have been more successful drafting from the CHL. Neuvirth, Holtby, Perrault, Bouchard, Osala, Della Rovere, Eakin…that is 7 and I did not include McNeil, Flemming or Mitchell who all may stand better chances then the 2 NCAA guys I mentioned.
Again, we just do not scout depth players well that go the NCAA route.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Seabrook was drafted out of the BCHL, not the NCAA. He was committed to UD but hadn’t played there yet. I also don’t think he’ll make the NHL. Wey is probably our best NCAA prospect in the system right now. DeSimone has some potential but I think he has a long way to go. Neuvith was also drafted from CZE, not the CHL.
I also don’t think OO is nearly as good a prospect as you do. Sure, we’ve gotten guys like Eakin and SDR and MP. But I think we reached for Bouchard, we completely blew it with Mestery, and in general I don’t see any reason to think that our scouting is any better for the CHL. Most quality NHL players go through the CHL at some point, so you’d expect to see more guys pan out from the CHL than other sources. You can say we should stick to the CHL based on those numbers, but I don’t think it has to do with our scouting necessarily.
I waited all year for this?
Me too…but the there are slim chances he will ever make it to the NHL.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I have never said there are not failures in the CHL. There are, and there are typically more than from the other channels…which is because of volume. Just like there will be more successes. All I saying is we have a higher percentage of success, and the percentages are not even close. They are closer when you correctly move Neuvirth to International.
BTW, from what I have read. Seabrook may be getting a chance on the back end with Calgary next year. He had a pretty solid season in the A last year. I am not extremely high on Osala, I was just basing my % on whether the player will make the NHL. Osala has also ready made it (for a taste) and is probably up there next year. Now, if we look at top 6 forwards, 4 defense and top goalie then the percentages are closer. I do not think you are looking for those players in the mid rounds and if you trip on them it will probably be from Russia.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll sell on Seabrook, and I just fundamentally disagree with your evaluation system. OO couldn’t stick on a pretty bad CAR team last year and I doubt he gets the skating skills this off-season. He may get another cup of coffee but he’s going to be another AHL guy next year.
I waited all year for this?
That would not surprise me either. I still would rather have OO though over every other guy we have taken from the USHL and NCAA (post first round) in the last 5 years.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Copper and Blue were running a series on drafting habits, correct? Let me see if I can find a link.
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by red army line on Jun 24, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Interview with Brock Nelson from March 30: http://www.thepipelineshow.com/clips/season_5/Brock_Nelson_Mar30.mp3
The interview is a few minutes in…
He’s looking at either UND or his rights are held by USHL Green Bay.
NCAA is not a bad development route, and some absolute studs have gone through there. It’s not fair at all to knock the NCAA just because GMGM has shown epically bad judgment with the guys he has taken from the NCAA. I don’t know if our NCAA scouting staff was not up to snuff or what, but Pokie and Finley were terrible picks (and both were off the board so it’s not like everyone thought they’d be good, GMGM just blew it). North Dakota has a pretty good track record with developing players. I wouldn’t put them in the “implicit trust” category like a few other schools (BC, Wisconsin, probably Michigan) but they are in that second tier with a lot of other schools (BU, Minnesota) and definitely ahead of the “no thanks” crew (headlined by Notre Dame and Miami (OH)).
I waited all year for this?
And you really can’t compare Joe Finley to this kid. Different positions, pretty positive Finley had different developmental needs. Haksy’s sent Greene, Parise, Zajac, Toews, Oshie, and Stafford to the NHL, and they all have full time jobs now. Brian Lee has gone back and forth in Ottawa/Binghamton. Obviously, something’s going right there. But NoDak has definitely produced more prominent forwards than defensemen, hense Joe Finley flop. We’ll just have to sit back and see what happens, and if we pick this kid and he’s at North Dakota in the fall, I’ll definitely be all eyes and ears for 18 games.
Fighting Sioux Forever.
Agreed. I have never said the NCAA is not a great development route…it is. We just do not scout it well IMO. I do not trust our scouts that scout the NCAA or USHL. I do trust our CHL and International scouts. That is all I am saying.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, they did hit on Carlson so I have to cut some slack
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
And even moreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee in the USHL and NCAA :-)
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Next couple years of drafts I may be a little biased on who I want. John McFarland is a family friend so I want to see the Caps pick him. It helps that he fits my usual interests….ie. guys that have a ton of talent that fall for different reasons. Of course, he needs to make it to us. If possible, I would not mind the Caps trading down to pick up a second to be used on Kabanov.
Next year I would love to get Ryan Murphy, Justin Sefton, and Daniel Catenacci…again because of the personal side.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions
Too many character issues for my liking. You can’t spend two great bullets on guys with huge question marks. I can appreciate the family friend angle, but McFarland just looks like Angelo Esposito to me. I’m weary of guys that fall like that.
I waited all year for this?
Craig Custance said he talked to a scout about Kabanov, and the scout replied, “he’s a full time job for a sports psychologist.” Pass.
Fighting Sioux Forever.
Yeah I have no interest in him unless he falls to us in the third round.
I waited all year for this?
He has a new agent. For now.
TSNBobMcKenzie
Kabanov is now being represented by agent Rick Curran and the Orr Hockey Group.
Best way for good teams like Washington to get 1st round talent in the 2nd-4th rounds is by drafting the guys that fall. If Kabanov falls to the 3rd round then we have to grab him.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks promising! And he's a quick Freudian slip away from...
Every time Matt Bradley scores a goal, everyone inside the Beltway should get the next day off from work. It's only fair.
Yeah, but who in their right mind names their kid Brock? :-p
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Parents that want their kid to be certifiably awesome.
I'm gonna pain you dearly Woodhouse, when I peel all your skin off with a flensing knife, sew it into Woodhouse pajamas, and then set those pajamas on fire.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 24, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would be very happy with that selection. The only thing I have against Nelson is that he is going to UND and not the U of M. However, everything I have read about this kid is very positive.
Proud to be a Caps fan. Its a Great Day for Hockey.
He has long family ties to UND and actually lives closer to UND than U of M. But if you listen to the interview I linked above, he kinda indicates he’s leaning to playing in the USHL with Green Bay.
Green Bay not only option
Found this as well,
The WHL’s Tri City American’s are planning on trying to convince Warroad, Minnesota top 30 NHL ranked prospect Brock Nelson on the merits of the WHL over North Dakota and Green Bay.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would he go USHL instead of NCAA. I thought USHL was usually a stepping stone to the NCAA. Would it be because he does not expect much playing time as a freshman?
by CapsFanSince1979 on Jun 24, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions
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