2009-10 Rink Wrap: John Carlson

JC’s probably the guy I’m most excited to watch next season.

I turned it up to 11.

9, way more than I expected for this year, but certainly not the best season he will ever turn in.

Kinda did what I was thinking he’d do, and took big PK minutes in the postseason, which I wasn’t expecting.

As far as next year goes, I’d hope the organization starts him in the Top 4, though it’s probably likelier (sp?) to see him finish there. A 10 would probably have him see significant special teams time and finish with upwards of 30 points.

This is the only 10 I’m giving this year. He’s a kid and he’s a defenseman. Normal expectations are lots of rookie mistakes, big learning curve, a few shining moments to give us a hint of his potential.

Yowza – I know we aren’t supposed to consider the World Juniors, but I am. Solid, solid player. Turns into our best defenseman for several of the playoff games – his first ever at the NHL level. Unflappable. More than once there was some sort of scrum behind our net, and suddenly Carlson skates out of it with the puck and makes a good, non-panicked play. His rookie mistakes, which did occur, were a fraction of what we had expected.

I do think he will get better. And that is really thrilling. But he surpassed my expectations beyond belief for this season.

As I didn’t expect him to make the team at all this year, much less have such a positive impact on the D-corp, it’s pretty easy to give Carlson a 10.

I gave him a 9 for his play on the caps. If you include WJC I give him a 10. Way better than I expected from him.

Proving I don’t know anything about anything at the rookie game at kettler a couple of preseasons ago that JC played in I didn’t think he was very good and go “Oh good, two first round draft picks and no good players” (I started hating on Anton Gustaffson ~0.0003 seconds after we drafted him)

If he hadn’t cheated up looking for an outlet pass on montreal’s 2nd goal of game 7 then he would have had a perfect season.

Apparently glory and 10s follow him.

I’m debating between 9 and 10. I wasn’t expecting him to be a regular by the end of the season, and definitely not into the playoffs, coming into the year. I expected maybe a cup of coffee here and there. The fact that he was a regular bumps him up a point or two, and that he looked good bumps him up some more. His domination of the AHL adds some to his total. And he had some clutch goals, adding another point. That’s four additions. He won the USA Gold. He gets a 10.

9+. while his tires were being pumped even before the world juniors, i did not expect him to make the impact he did at the NHL level. when he first came up he was focusing on the defensive aspects of his game and looked real good. then when he started incorporating the offensive side of things, it was that much more impressive. i also think his call up probably helped alzner in a round about way. so while he greatly exceeded my expectations, i will say there are still a few negatives in my book:

1- he’s too old to ever marry my daughter
2- his down the left wing, look away wrister goal in game 2 was remarkably similar to his down the left side, look away wrister to win the world juniors. yawn. booring. he’s a big game goal scoring one trick pony.
3- when his mom was caught on camera crying during his first game with the caps, it gave me some sort of alergic reaction which caused my eyes to water…

as for next year i see him as a top 4 dman because he clearly ended the year as such. also depends upon who, if anyone, the caps bring in on the blue line. he could be the second unit PP point guy. either way, d pairings of

52-55
74-27
3-?

dont look too bad to me. maybe he pairs with poti vs. alzner. he definitely takes some pressure off of GMGM to have to sign a big time, expensive FA dman to fill out the blue line.

Maybe I’m just not into grade inflation, but I think 8 is pretty damn good. The Great American Hero turned into one of my favorite Caps to watch. I’m a big fan of his entire game. And he did have a much better season than I expected. Frankly my expectations were what happened to Alzner, yo-yoing between NHL and AHL. Carlson does not get a 9 or 10 from me because he didn’t get enough goals/points here in the NHL. In my scoring system his WJC and AHL numbers don’t count.

I think nearly everyone here expected a rookie defenseman to spend a lot of time playing with the big club this postseason, and I think nearly everyone expected that defenseman to make an impact. I suspect few thought it would be Carlson.

This was a pretty easy 10 to give. Surpassed my expectations in nearly every way.

if i’m being honest with myself and giving everyone a chance to max out, john carlson turned in as good a season as i could’ve ever imagined.

i didn’t expect him to leapfrog alzner. i didn’t expect the caps to keep him up and lose a year of his RFA status (a compliment to JC). i didn’t expect him to be here during the playoffs, nonetheless establish himself as “the best defenseman on the team.” props to gouldie though for this preseason call on playoffs D pairings:

I think Carlson can get there by the end of the year, and Poti would be the perfect mentor for him.

the kid is billed as an offensive defenseman, and he logged huge PK minutes in high pressure, late-game situations. i expect a lot from here on out. i expect him to be a top-4 D for the length of next year. i expect BB to beef up the second PP unit and allow JC some time in the mike green role. i expect his giveaways/game to shrink considerably. beyond next year, i expect JC to be a regular all-star, a regular olympian. but this year? this year he blew my expectations away.

Gave him a 10 because I did not expect him to be part of the playoff roster, and then arguably the best defenseman in the group who would have helped the team even more had he been given any power play time.

Moving forward, his biggest contribution could be lightening the load for 52 both in minutes played and in pressure to score.

Size. Speed. Shot. Smarts. Clutch. He seems to have it all…

I would have given Carlson a 10, but in his first few games he actually “played like a rookie”. Not a bad thing necessarily, but it was obvious he was a little bit awestruck. He did settle in though, and by the time the season ended, he was a top-4 defenseman on the Caps (and likely will be for quite some time).

It’s not often that a game-tying goal in the last 2 minutes of a Stanley Cup playoff game isn’t the most important goal of your career, but that’s the case. And the sky is absolutely the limit for Carlson. I will be disappointed in him if he doesn’t emerge from camp as a top-4 defenseman where he will remain with the Caps for the better part of this decade. I fully expect that this Calder Cup run with Hershey will be the last Hershey sees of Carlson except on a conditioning assignment. Going forward, I can see Carlson putting up something like 8-30-38 for scoring with 30-40 PIMs every year, and being among the team leaders in plus-minus.

Hershey is rapidly becoming a place where top notch NHL defensemen are cranked out over and over again…this is due to scouting by the Caps, and coaching. Kudos to them.

I didn’t expect him to see more than a couple games at the nhl level, and didn’t expect him to be quite so dominant at the ahl level either. Certainly didn’t expect him to be one of the top defenders for us in the playoffs. Coming into this season, this performance would have been my optimistic hopes for next season.

The Discussion: At this point, it’s pretty obvious the sky’s the limit for Carlson; the question is, how good will he be next year, and how good should the team expect him to be next year? Should Carlson have a top-four spot coming out of camp, or should he still be handled with kid gloves? Does how the team plans to treat him next fall have any impact on the decisions the front office makes this offseason?

For next year, I am hoping he continues like he did this year, but for the entire season. Depending on if we pick anyone else up on D, I think he is a top 4 guy to start the season, once again paired with Poti. Possibly 3rd pairing if we bring in a real shutdown guy that is more equipped to deal with the big minutes on a nightly basis over the long haul. His emergence probably makes it easy for the caps braintrust to NOT re-sign Corvo, and to not pursue that type of defenseman (i.e. “green insurance”) in the offseason. Not sure it changes the mindset that a veteran defender should be added, but likely could affect the timing of that addition (i.e. trade deadline instead of offseason).

He pretty much did what I expected for him, which is cementing a position as a top four D-man, joining the rush effectively and being a solid +/- guy. In Hershey. Doing that for the Caps was a thing of beauty. I had to read that “interesting stat” twice – more playoff minutes than Schultz? Pretty crazy for a guy who’s 20. When you think about the TOI increase, it’s easy to forgive him the game seven goal. And if that doesn’t convince you, his goal in game two should.

As JP said, the sky’s the limit now. Gonna love to see him getting 20+ minutes a night with the big boys, and specifically what his role will be. BB used him more on the PK, but he has the offensive skills to point the PP as well. With the free agent debate about shutdown D vs. 2C ongoing, I’ll take some permutation of 52, 55, 74 and 27 and the top four next year and go get that center. And despite my avatar, I think Carlson might be the # 1 guy…

Side note: If Erskine is gone next year, does Carlson go back to # 4? Inquiring jersey-purchasing minds want to know.

One of the only guys on the team who may actually deserve a 10, but you’d have to to weigh his postseason pretty heavily to get there, I think. If the rating scale was “how much do you want to see this guy play next year” I’d have given him an eleven……….ty billion.

10 for the playoffs, 6 for the regular season. My best case scenario for the kid was making the team out of camp, which he didn’t do. He did eventually get here, which I expected, and performed OK.

The RAH action in the playoffs and his steady performance were well above expectations.

I’m badly hoping that the press clippings don’t go to this kid’s head, and he works hard over the summer and reports in the kind of shape that will allow him to be an impact guy for the full season. I rather suspect the Habs were a good matchup for him, and I don’t expect him to be the best defender on the team all season. But if he can take a regular shift as a Top 4 guy and play well, score 15 goals and 25 assists, that would be a 10 in my book.

Had to give him a ten because, well, if you’d asked me in October what the best possible season I could imagine for Carlson was, I’d have said something along the lines of “coming up mid-late season, playing pretty well, and forcing himself in to the top four for the playoffs”, and that’s exactly what he did.

A ten next season would Drew Doughty lite – a well-round player who plays in all situations and plays in all situations well, plays a smart game, and brings it every night.

A 6 this season from JC in my mind would have constituted being a top-4 in Hershey and playing big minutes in all situations with Drew Doughty NHL-type numbers in the AHL.

Then he’s the best or second best Caps D in the playoffs and plays solid all around hockey.

Arguably, a ten. But I felt somehat prepared for, and strangely expected, the badassery that was John Carlson. He immediately assimilated to the NHL game and made his more experienced partner better in the playoffs.

Oh, and about that second season…

Pick up 5 extra minutes in TOI, ‘cause you’re a badass clearly the best defender we have rollin? Check.

Score a critical goal—when all was friggin lost, about ready to go down 0-2 at home to the Habs—to give the team life when it needed it most? Double Check.

Showed the whole planet that Mike Green had better step up his game if he doesn’t want to get replaced as the cornerstone of the Caps defense? Checkmate, baby!

I think I would combust if he were to pull off a ten performance next year: here the whole year, top 4 for 70+ games, 20+ TOI, 15/40/55 +20.

And all for 900K. Who says this isn’t a young man’s game?

Gave him a 9. I expected him to be in Hershey all season long, and he forced his way to the Caps, played solid if unspectacular in the regular seasons, and raised his game in the playoffs. A 10 would have been point per game play.

A 10 next year would be Calder and Norris consideration, .75 ppg production

Only other guy I can think of getting a Bradley besides Backstrom. Never expected Carlson to really even play with the Capitals but he came up huge as the season was winding down. He was eager to play here and backed it up with some respectable skills. If he gains confidence in his pairing partner and himself he’ll be the next SecDef but with an offensive upside. I see great things for this guy — not even 21 yet and already impressing.

Let’s not forget, this is Carlson’s first full professional season. He got a cup o’ coffee with the Bears in last year’s playoffs (16 games), where he played very well. To have come this far this fast is astonishing, given the position he plays.

My only one. Since even in my wildest dreams I didn’t imagine him being one of the best players in the playoffs, this is an easy grade.

I’m thinking 9. I can’t think of a single negative about him that I don’t immediately caveat in my head with “but he’s only 20.” For example, “Grows a shitty playoff beard… but he’s only 20.”

Lived up to his billing, kind of spooky to have that happen.
gets a 5 from me.

10 from me— I expected him to go and dominate the AHL with Alzner. (Done.) If he had just done that, he’d get a 6.

+1 for leap-frogging Alzner in NHL-readiness
+1 for killing the Canadians
+1 for upping his play exponentially in the playoffs
+1 for doing all of this with the calmest demeanor on the ice— I like his game.

Since I am Canadian and he’s an American hero, it seems only fair. Or maybe I just hold a grudge….

All kidding aside, Johnny C exceeded my expectations for a rookie D-man one year removed from Juniors. Especially with his poise and stellar performance in the postseason. I was excited watching him play at the World Jrs but my rating only reflects his tenure with the Caps this year. His offensive skill and carrying the play is exciting to watch and adds a whole new dimension to our power play which I hope BB utilizes and moves OV off the point to the half wall for the man advantage next year. He seems older than he is.

My one main negative was his laziness on the Dominic Moore goal in Game 7. The play still irks me and I hold both Green and JC responsible.

For a higher rating next year..I’d say 10-15 goals, say 35-45 points and a steady defensive force. Hopefully a 2-D pairing with Alzner and increased PP time (please Bruce make it happen). …..Good thing he can’t play World Jrs again.

What number does he switch to next year? Its too bad for him we retired 11.

I had no expectations he’d be in the top 6, so the playoff failure doesn’t count against him.

10. Could not have expected more. Definitely didn’t even expect him to be a full-time NHL player so soon and completely didn’t expect him to be such a key part of our playoff corps. Awesome season for him. The bad stuff is all stuff I expected… I just expected it in HER. I can’t begin to hold any of that against him at the NHL level.

I think the team shouldn’t just give him a top 4 spot, but they shouldn’t box him out either. It looks more likely than not that he’ll be top 4 by the end of next season, if not the start. I think that definitely should play into the off-season plans. As I (and others) said yesterday, there’s no need to go overpay Volchenkov when we have Carlson and Alzner on the cusp. Going into this last season the Caps had Tom Poti and John Erskine as the only NHL D with 300 games. During the season Green and Shamo hit their 300th games. Next season Schultz and Juice will hit 300 if they stay healthy. As a young D corps they’ve already over-performed, I’d like to see what they can do when they all find their games instead of blowing it up for a big name FA.

I think Carlson will be very good next year, and the team should expect him to be. I think that until the trade deadline the team should test and push both Carlson and Alzner’s limits. That will make them more prepared for the playoffs. A conservative approach is usually the better way to go with D, and still may be with Alzner, but Carlson has blown the doors off of that. Ever since he got drafted he has been on a meteoric rise and basically immediately mastered every challenge thrown his way. Until he shows us that something is too big for him, I’d keep feeding him challenges and responsibility. The guy is insane. I’ve said before and will again, he’s better than Green was at that age at both ends of the ice (and my early opinion is that Carlson is more committed to being in peak physical condition than Green has shown). The sky’s the limit is certainly right.

I’d also note that every single Rink Wrap has shown a normal curve trend to the voting. Just sayin’.

I’m not sure I can NOT give him a 10. Kid came in, at 20, with very little pro time at any level…and became a top minutes defenseman in the playoffs. The kid was a stud, and was one of the few players who consistantly showed up in the playoffs. And as a consequence, he was leaned on even more in the playoffs, and took up that mantle just fine. I’m not sure I could have expected anything near this before the season started for a kid who had barely seen the AHL.

Next year, though, expectations will be through the roof. Calder finalist, Top 5 in rookie scoring, PP and PK time. Next year he needs to be a substantial cog in the Washington blueline…

Oh, and also, John Carlson is much better than PK Subban. Let’s see how Habs fans feel about Mike Green-lite. I wonder if he gets the same shit thrown at him as Green has gotten. Probably not since he’s their boy.

*edit fail

I wonder what JR’s resident sages what they thought thinkabout the kid and any comparisons to Johnny C?

could be a 9 but everyone gets points off for early playoff exit.

Ditto to Natty & F&B on the accolades

10 next year: top-4, ~70gp, lower 5v5 GAON/60 from 2.42 to 2, >20 points, dominant presence on the PP

5 next year: >50gp, moderate all-around improvements, continued GAH status

Its pretty much been covered already.
How good will he be next year? We’ll see.
Should he be top 4? His play and production will determine that.
Kid gloves? Well, he shouldn’t be thrown to the wolves. I get the impression he could handle it, though.
I liked everything I saw from him. I don’t fault him entirely for Montreals 2nd goal that game, because Green should have played it better, but i’m sure Carlson was kicking himself afterward.
He and Alzner looked pretty good in game 7. He ceratinly makes me hopeful for the future of the blueline.

10 by a mile.

To be honest, I think the expectations grew as the season progressed, and that people aren’t really grading him relative to their pre-season expectations, but rather relative to their post holy-crap-a-caps-prospect-just-scored-a-no-look-international-tournament-winning-goal-live-in-HD-on-my-TV expectations.

I didn’t expect Carlson to see time in Washington except in short injury-related circumstances to give him some more pro experience. I didn’t expect him to be a national hero. I didn’t expect him to play in the playoffs. I didn’t expect him to end the season as our best defensemen.

A 10 next year would demand a Calder win, and at least one national writer throwing him out as a Norris candidate at some point.

He played extremely well, much better than I expected, but to get more than a 7 he has to play the full season and not just part of it and the playoffs.

I think it would be interesting to have two votes: one like the current one and one on a more absolute basis, where 10 is future Hall-of-Famer in his prime and 1 is should be in the AHL. For the younger players especially, the current format is much more about our own expectations than the player’s performance.

Didn’t Caps management decide to let the kid play despite losing a year of contract control in doing so? Who would’ve thought that the way this organization has handled many of their youngsters recently.

JC was the best defensemen we had in the playoffs? No one thought that would be the case, no one.

JC was terrific in the World Juniors, AHL, NHL and NHL Playoffs.

I’m not sure how some of you can give him anything lower than 9. He wasn’t a top 5 pick but has played like a 10 year pro at the age of 21.

JC gets my only 10 this season.

I think pretty much all has been covered so far. Only reason I didn’t give him a 9 or 10 is because: As good as he was this season/post-season, how good is he going to be next year with a full AHL playoff performance under his belt, a summer to get some more work outs in, and another year of maturity? He hasn’t quite hit his peak yet, but damn if I’m not excited for when he will.

I had no idea he’d play in DC this season as a 20 year old rookie and he ends up being the #1 defenseman in the playoffs.

10 because I definitely didn’t anticipate this.

And glory follows him.

I thought about giving him a 10, he was damn close. I was kinda waffling on 8 or 9, but his playoff performance definitely bumped it up. Hell thinking about it I should have just gave the kid a 10. For all the talk about how he might be the “most ready” of our young D considering how ready they claimed Alzner was I just wasn’t expecting Carlson to crack the lineup this quickly and really claim a spot going into the playoffs…let alone absolutely seizing a top 4 spot in that series. Him and Poti were tremendous in the series and I really don’t see him slowing down at all heading into next year. I think they should be looking at him as top 4 guy going into next year unless they sign someone who can handle it and let Carlznerson be the 3rd pairing to bring them along as a tandem.

A 10 next year would be locking down top 4 minutes for sure, hopefully logging quite a few for our special teams (although like most have said I figure it’ll mostly be PK v. PP) and winning the Calder. I’d also like to see him continue his tremendous postseason play next year and be a big reason why we make a deep run.

American Hero, Capitals Hero in bitter defeat…
Hope to see him in DC next season.

He wasn’t earth-shattering and ground-breaking, but pretty close.

To get a 10 next year he basically needs to be Mike Green-lite on offense (especially since he won’t get the PP time), and get to be the 1/2/2a-ranked D on the team and be consistent about it.

A 5 would be beating out Sloskine for the 4/5/6 D spot and hanging onto it, adding a little bit of O and continuing his development.

-d

Can I give him a 10 even if I thought his potential was to fix world poverty, end global warming, bring peace to the middle east, and conquer at least two other planets. Pretty bad year for Captain America….

Because he more than any other player on the roster has given me hope for next year. Plus it got to the point where management started all but saying he was our best acquisition at the deadline.

I’d like to remind people that in this space there was serious debate about whether we should be calling him up to get regular season experience down the stretch and risk activating his clock and costing us more money down the road. If you are one of the people who said keep him down, and gave him anything less than an 8, a pestilence upon your house!

I gave him a 10 because I have to include his worlds which would have started him at a 7 for me. I add +1 to that because of the goal in game 2, an indelible Caps memory that would have been far more indelible had some other folks stepped up. I’m going to add another +1 for being a man I felt I could trust with the puck in the playoffs and I’m going to add another +1 for all of the ice team he absorbed down the stretch.

I think my 10 relates to where I see him on the depth chart now starting for next season and how he has made me very comfortable with 2C being the need the team needs to focus on for the offseason.

Who in this space was expecting the rookie to be the one that showed up in the playoffs best relative to expecations on the roster? For all we want to make this team about the playoffs and who comes up big at the biggest times, I think we have to reward that with 9s and 10s.