2009-10 Rink Wrap: Karl Alzner
by J.P. on May 3, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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PrintFrom Alzner to Varlamov, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2009-10 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2010-11. First up, Karl Alzner.
Karl Alzner
#27 / Defenseman / Washington Capitals
6-3
206
Sep 24, 1988
2
$1,675,000 cap hit in 2010-11; RFA after 2010-11 season
6.59 rating
Key Stat: Alzner was recalled to Washington seven times this season.
Interesting Stat: All five of his points came in Caps wins, with the team going 5-0-0 when Alzner appeared on the score sheet.
The Good: Alzner had four points in his first ten NHL games of the season and was plus-two in that span (the team was also 9-1-0 during that stretch). More importantly, on a team that was penalty-kill challenged, Alzner had the best goals against on ice per sixty minutes at 4-on-5 of any Caps blueliner who averaged 30 seconds or more of PK time per game (albeit Alzner's QualComp and QualTeam in those situations made those minutes - which weren't a ton - relatively easy). He also protected the puck well, having the second-best minutes-per-giveaway rate of any Caps rearguard (Joe Corvo was first). Finally, the Caps were generally a better team with Alzner in the lineup - they went 15-6-1 when King Karl dressed (and take out those first three games after Chris Clark was traded and the last two games before the Olympic break - two times this season when the team was a bit of a mess - and that record goes to 15-2-0). They can't speak highly enough of Alzner in Hershey, and these last few weeks of Calder Cup playoffs should be his AHL swan song.
The Bad: Back in February, we opined that Alzner's NHL game had seemed to regress a bit from his brief rookie campaign, and most of the numbers that bear that out came at five aside. To wit, Alzner had the worst +/-ON/60, GAON/60 and Corsi Rating (thanks to the Caps having the fewest shots for and most against when Alzner was on the ice) of any Cap defenseman while playing against relatively weak opponents. Chalk it up to not exactly playing with the highest-quality partners and move on?
The Vote: Rate Alzner below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: George McPhee has said that Alzner will "certainly be on this team next year," but what role do you see Alzner playing on the 2010-11 Caps? What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?
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I gave him a four. I expected him to step in and be better than he was during his rookie season, but instead he was worse. However, he got bounced around a lot, so maybe I should cut him some slack.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on May 3, 2010 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
Gave him a 4 also because if nothing else he got passed by RAHJC on the race to regular shift time with the big club. Hopefully having him up here and playing regularly with same will allow for that. I don’t see a 10 for him, though he could get there if he found himself playing on the top pairing more often than not, and doing damn well at it.
They're coming.
by Bald Pollack on May 3, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with everything you said here, but like it was said here earlier, he may have been overthinking it, and that hesitancy at times made him look bad. I didn’t give him a 3 because of being yo-yoed around and also, to give “games that really matter” more weight, he was solid in his 15 mins of playoff duty.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
by red army line on May 3, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I was waffling between 3 and 4, and ended up giving him a 3. Part of it wasn’t his fault. He didn’t play as well as I had hoped when he was up with the Caps, and didn’t get as much time with the Caps as I had hoped he would, but that’s not entirely his fault. And the score I give him unfortunately gets docked.
I have to go. But if I find one single dog hair when I get back, I'll rub... sand... in your dead little eyes. I also need you to buy sand. I don't know if they grade it, but... coarse.
by Steckel Me Elmo on May 3, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t wait for yoyo to need a better nickname. He’ll do better next year paired with Carlson, you have to think. I gave him a 6.
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I gave him a 7. 70% is average in my book and that’s what he was this year.
I wish there was a N/A button on the poll since he spent most of the time in Hershey it’s tough to rate his performance as a Cap.
I am looking forward to next year and seeing him up at the big club. I think he will respond well, especially once the yo-yo is taken away for good.
Rate Alzner below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season – if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 3, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Apologies, I really need to read the instructions better.
That being said, in his limited time here I thought he marginally exceeded my expectations – especially when you compare his performance to our other full-time Dmen. Therefore the 7 is still warranted. I really don’t think that his performance had much impact on the yo-yo that was his year.
by Gin and Tonic on May 3, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I gave him a five because, unless we’re talking the John Carlson’s of the world, I don’t expect anything earth-shattering from 21-year old defensemen. Plus, the sample size of 21 games really didn’t give him much of a chance to develop his NHL game. I know some will argue that Karl should have been here all season, but when I hear John Walton call him the “best defenseman in the AHL, hand down”, I feel the Caps did the right thing by sending him to Hershey. Next year, though, I’m expecting much more and if what I saw in Game Seven is any indication, we may have our shutdown defenseman for the next decade.
when I hear John Walton call him the "best defenseman in the AHL, hand down", I feel the Caps did the right thing by sending him to Hershey.
I don’t follow that logic. Shouldn’t the best player in the AHL be able to break into the NHL more than Alzner did? Why would that assessment of his abilities lead you to think he should stay in Hershey?
speaking for myself, it’s because he wasn’t the best defenseman in the ahl earlier in the season…he needed that additional development time to become the player he could be.
Exactly. Alzner didn’t start as the best D-man in the AHL. He made himself into it by playing 27 minutes a game in all situations. That’s why it’s a development league for the NHL. And if Alzner was up with the Caps who out of Poti, Schultz,Green,Corvo, ShaMo and Carlson was he going to replace? Some may disagree, but I firmly believe that playing a ton of minutes for the best team in the AHL is better for a young player than practicing with an NHL a few times a week and getting in every fourth or fifth game.
Some may disagree, but I firmly believe that playing a ton of minutes for the best team in the AHL is better for a young player than practicing with an NHL a few times a week and getting in every fourth or fifth game.
But if he’s played 50 NHL games, he can start an NHL playoff Game 7?
They're coming.
I see yalls point. I wasn’t thinking about the time-stamp on Walton’s comments. Still, I’d be interested to know how much of that status Walton believes Alzner gained in the 2nd half of the season before I’d be in agreement with your logic.
Regarding:
who out of Poti, Schultz,Green,Corvo, ShaMo and Carlson was he going to replace?
I would point to the fact that Erskine played 50 games and Sloan played 40 games, so getting Alzner more NHL ice time wasn’t necessarily a matter of him replacing one of the 6 you listed.
Just remember that the best offensive players in the A are named Aucoin and Giroux, and we wouldn’t want them anywhere near a VC dressing room if we didn’t have to.
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I gave him a 5 because 5 and 6 are the averages, and he was slightly below average. Had he come up and stayed up all year long, he’d have probably gotten an 8. He was good when he was here, and good in the playoffs. I’m excited to see him here all season next year.
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions
But for the most part, he can’t control whether he’s up here or in Hershey. I don’t think that should affect his score.
"My face is my mask."
by Jake Shapiro on May 3, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I scored Alzner a five mostly because I am not sure what to make of his season. My expectations were based largely on how much playing time he got in Washington. I would have liked to see around 30 NHL games, but more importantly, I would have liked to have seen those be mostly contiguous NHL games. I did not like the back-and-forth that he was subjected to this season. As I said in early April, "Alzner was brought up, not given a chance to play, and then sent down. He was trending Alzner." He underperformed at even strength, but he was not given enough time to work out his mistakes. I put that partly on the shoulders of management for not allowing him to learn at the NHL level. Alzner admitted himself that the back-and-forth has an impact on his development:
Every time I go up I feel a little nervous again and it takes me a game or two to kind of settle in. The practices up there – the tempo is so high and you’ve got play up the level of [Ovechkin], [Backstrom] and those guys. When I come here I get to try things I normally wouldn’t. For a couple of times it was nice just to do that and reiterate what I keep telling myself I want to do up there in games instead of maybe just in practice.
(Link, definitely worth a read.)
However, I was much more disappointed in the situation before Alzner got a chance to play in game seven. Maybe the preview of what is to come gave me hope, but more likely the early playoff exit combined with larger issues facing the club have simply mitigated my concern with Alzner’s NHL GP a bit.
I would like to see him on the Caps for good out of training camp next season, and if he is not in DC for a significant portion of the ’10-’11 season, I will consider it a disappointment. At this point, I feel he was learned all he has to learn from AHL coaching. He needs tutelage under an NHL system. If he is the Karl Alzner we think he is, he should be ready. I expect Alzner to follow in Jeff Schultz’s footsteps and Carlson in Mike Green’s. Hopefully fans are more accepting of Alzner than they were of Schultz.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on May 3, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I would like to see him on the Caps for good out of training camp next season, and if he is not in DC for a significant portion of the ’10-’11 season, I will consider it a disappointment.
It would be a disappointment for McPhee, as well. He told Elliot that Alzner and Carlson are going to be playing with the Caps and not Hershey next season.
Alzner is headed into a contract year (he’s an RFA after the 10/11 season). If he’s not full-time with the Caps this year, it would have to be considered a disappointment. Of the defensemen under contract for next year, there should be only three ahead of him on the depth chart — Poti, Green, and Carlson. If/when they get Schultz signed (an RFA), he’s still a third pair regular.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Alzner isn’t 6’5-6’6ish so I think expectations should be a bit more reasonable. Hopefully anyway.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on May 3, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
the high draft slot really isn’t doing alzner any favors, though. fairly or unfairly, alzner was the top-5 defenseman that would eventually compliment our top-5 forwards (#8 and #19).
Similarly, he isn’t done any favors by the quick success found by those two and fellow first-round blueliners 52 and 55 (yes, 55 has had relatively quick success).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Alzner and Carlson are ahead of Green and Schultz in the development curve right now. They are better than Schultz/Green were at those respective ages (at both ends of the ice, for both players). Green/Schultz can be our future second pair. Karlznerson is where the future of our blueline is.
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on May 3, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rectacularly put
It seemed strange to me to consider but after watching Game 7 I kept thinking to myself… our top line in 2 years may very well be Carlznerson with Greener and Schultzie taking a back seat.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see Carlson and Alzner take over the majority of 5v5 ice time and a substantial portion of the 4v5 ice time, while Green goes back to playing about 20 mins with a 15 5v5/55v4 split.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I agree completely with this, but then where do you stick Schultz – a guy who really ought to get a ton of 5v5 time.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Personally I think lots of us here are throwing out d-pairings like Carslon-Alzner just by virtue of their game 7 performance.
I wouldn’t mind having
Carlson- Schultz
Green-Alzner
as for the 3rd pair…..well take your pick
In my mind Green and Carlson are two very similar defenders.
proud 4th line advocate
See, the thing is I don’t mind seeing Carlson – Alzner, Green – Schultz, I just think the two pairings should get similar ice time, and then I think Carlson – Green are your two go-to’s for the power play, and Alzner and Schultz are your PK go-to’s.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
An Ovechkin-Backstrom-Laich-Carlson-Green 1st PP unit looks great on paper.
I guess I am just a little hesitant to jump on the whole “Carlson/ Alzner” pairing. As well all know here AHL success doesn’t always translate into NHL success, (see exhibit A. Giroux)
I think the same holds true for D-Pairings.
proud 4th line advocate
I like Alzner with Green better than Schultz with Green. He has the mobility to compensate for Green in ways that Schultz can’t.
I waited all year for this?
That’s fair too. Frankly, I don’t know if there’s a wrong way to pair the four of them up.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on May 3, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
my feeling as well… Schultz plays better D zone by zone, asking him to cover players from the offensive blueline back to our goal line doesn’t work as well. That’s where I’ve marveled at Alzners abilities… his skating, position and hockey sense for playing all three zones is excellent.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally I think lots of us here are throwing out d-pairings like Carslon-Alzner just by virtue of their game 7 performance.
Or by virtue of them logging a ton of minutes together in the AHL, and quite successfully. It is hardly based on one game.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on May 3, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. The two seem to have chemistry.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
So do Fehr and Flash, as well as Ovechkin – Semin, Semin – Knuble, but that doesn’t make Ovechkin – Semin – Knuble the best line.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Matching up forward lines based on pairwise chemistry is not the same as matching up defensive pairings based on chemistry.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The entire line? No. But the basis for putting two guys together? Totally.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
No. Chemistry between two guys doesn’t drive a F line like it does a D pair.
I waited all year for this?
My point’s misunderstood. I was suggesting that putting two guys together based on chemistry when there’s other factors is still dumb.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Steve Yzerman put Seabrook and Keith on the team. Are you going to argue with Steve Yzerman?
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on May 3, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it’s snark, referencing Green not making the cut. Especially since OLY it’s valuable to have insta-chemistry, whereas in the NHL you can build up chemistry.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
by red army line on May 4, 2010 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Still not the same. You have to consider the positions (your AO-Semin-Knuble line has no C) and you also have so many more pairwise combinations of forwards to consider that you can’t rely on that the same way as you can with D. With forwards you also need the styles of 3 different players to mesh, not just two guys.
With all that, pairwise chemistry is far more important for D pairings than forward lines.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
God dammit.
My argument was to point that out. Pairwise chemistry important for D-men? Yes. But there’s other factors to consider, which was my fucking point with the post to begin with.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
You would have been better off using an example of other factors for defensemen then.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Or you could have read what I said. “that doesn’t make them the best line”.
Other factors for defensemen, used by Boudreau at least, are he wants an offensive and a defensive guy matched up, as well as dudes who shoot opposite ways. Alzner/Carlson both fit that, but as others have mentioned, Alzner has more speed than Schultz, so he might be a better fit for Green. But, does that make Schultz a good partner for Carlson? It’s more than fucking chemistry, which was my point.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Right, I got your point now. But the issue of chemistry among forwards is so different that your example was almost meaningless for discussing Karlznerson. If you wrote this post initially we aren’t still talking.
(But I’d also say that those other factors – handedness, styles of play, etc. – are a major reason why Karlznerson have such good chemistry)
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is basically why people favor Alzner/Carlson, because that leaves the pairing of Green/Schultz (who do fit most of those criteria listed) together. They already have chemistry and knowledge of how to play together, and so do Alzner/Carlson. The only real point of debate seems to be whether or not we need a better skating stay-at-home partner for Mike Green than Schultz….with the next obvious choice being Alzner. I get that argument, but it is really such a strong consideration that you’d break up the existing chemistry of 52/55 and 27/74?
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly, my point there is not that Carlson and Alzner are terrible at the NHL-level.
More that chemistry at the AHL level potentially means nothing once they get to NHL level.
And I want to see more of them as a pairing at the NHL level before I am comfortable with it.
proud 4th line advocate
Using Aucoin/Giroux as any sort of comparison for why chemistry doesn’t always translate both way is silly for one reason. Aucoin and Giroux are AHL players only. They are not NHL players. Carlson and Alzner are/will be. Carlson you can definitely say already is, and it certainly looks like Alzner will be starting Day 1 of next year.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Whether they are/will be or not.
They simply have not played together enough at the NHL level I think for them to be proclaimed our top d-pairing.
Carlson and Alzner have had huge success at the AHL level playing against AHL level competition, at AHL speeds, blocking AHL shots.
I just don’t think people are giving the disparity between the two enough credit.
I look forward to when I can say with confidence that Alzner and Carlson are our first d-pairing.
But I just feel that its a little premature.
And, IMO Aucoin is just as much an NHL level player as Alzner/Carlson are at this point.
Aucoin logged his fair share of games in Carolina.
proud 4th line advocate
(not advocating this but….) Have Giroux and Aucoin played together at the NHL level at all? Or has it always been one and not the other?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
Yes, they did a couple of times this season. A quick check of my saved line combos shows October 22, 24, 27 and also December 9. I remember at least one Giroux goal scored off an Aucoin assist too.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on May 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
See my qualifying comment above.
For me, the “AHL chemistry/success” is not a good measuring point for NHL-readiness.
Especially as a top D-pairing.
I just want to see more of the pair together at the NHL level before I am ready to declare them the new top dogs in our d-corps.
proud 4th line advocate
Again, I don’t have a link, but Coach French said he thought the Bears’ D was a little soft in the game with Alzner and Carlson, though he didn’t call them out by name. In fact the Bears played three of that four-game set (with Albany) into overtime, and were able to pull it out with clutch OT goals for.
Which sounds ominously like the end of the Caps’ season, when we kept getting into ties and having to bail out with OT or Gimmick goals.
Another ominous note (doesn’t belong in Karl’s rink wrap, sorry) – the Bears’ likely Western opponent – the Canadiens’ farm team.
It’s already too late for Alzner to follow in Schultz’s footsteps (thankfully)…people tend to forget that Schultz was rushed to the big club waaaaaaaaaaaay too fast. IIRC, Schultz had a grand total of about 50 games of AHL experience prior to being asked to become a full time nhl’er. He never really had a chance to taste the nhl, and then refine his game in the minors. once he was up, he was up for good (for better or for worse). Alzner, on the other hand, now has well over 100 AHL games under his belt, and numerous NHL “tastes” (some extended says, some short ones). This should allow Alzner to transition into being a top4 nhl dman much more easily than schultz, because he has been given the time to develop his game at the AHL level.
I gave him a 5. Expected more from him in the regular season, though I don’t blame everything on him. He played average under some trying circumstances in the regualar NHL season, while killing it at the AHL. I would have given him a 4, but his performance in game 7 gave him a bump up in my eyes.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
to earn a 10 next year, Karl needs to be with the team for the full season, earn top PK minutes, and register a +/- of +25 or higher.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on May 3, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the ratings are all over the place because the expectations for Alzner haven’t necessarily been clearly defined. He was hoped/expected to be in DC and make a significant contribution. For a defensive defenseman, I think it takes a longer period of time to establish “contribution.” For an offensive defenseman, a few goals, even during a limited tenure, suggest that you’re someone who can deliver.
I think, as do many, that we’re more in need of tough, solid defensive play from our defensemen than we are in need of more scoring. I think Alzer has the potential to be a major upgrade in this area. I worry a bit about some comments he made late in the season, when there was a discussion about why Carlson was called up and he wasn’t and he indicated that maybe he needed to focus more on scoring. I would prefer he didn’t, at least too soon, get distracted from job one – keeping the other team from scoring.
Let him establish himself in that regard, which I suspect he can and will, and then, as necessary, look to contribute more on offense. This is what I think, at least. BB may think differently when it comes to his defensemen . . . which, some would argue, is part of a larger issue.
by kfjje on May 3, 2010 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I gave him a 4. I expected him to use this year to adjust to the NHL and be a steady if unnoticeable presence on the blue line. He had some hiccups but performed respectably, I thought, and if given the time and confidence probably could have ironed out things this season. Now, next season will be the transition season, so I expect him to get manageable minutes that may be bumped up as he improves 5-on-5.
in the face of adversity, never, ever blink
4
I would have rated him higher, but I expected he would have won a job in camp and been on the roster for most, if not all, of 2009-10. Now part of the reason he wasn’t was so that he didn’t take 2 weeks off in February for the Olympics. Still he should have made this team with the competition for one of the spots being open.
For 2010-11 he should emerge as a top 4 defenseman on this team, a minute eater in the style of Tom Poti, along with being one of the top PK defensemen on this team. I expect he will be up near the top in +/- and will likely have the fewest PIM of all the defensemen.
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
7 probably higher than it should be
But I don’t think he played bad when up, and not being up wasn’t based on his play.
Let him play a full season with a good playing partner, and we will get the player drafted
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
George McPhee has said that Alzner will “certainly be on this team next year,” but what role do you see Alzner playing on the 2010-11 Caps?
I see him as Shaone Morrisonn – a third pairing guy who will help out on the PK and probably not do anything to blow your mind.
Yeah, it’s hard to see a jump from “not good enough to be a full-time NHLer” to “Top-Four on a Cup contender.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It begs the question, of the three UFAs on the blue line — Morrisonn, Corvo, and Jurcina — do the Caps resign any of them or go for that “stay at homer” everyone seems to think the Caps need?
If you've read this far...seek help.
Carlson would seem to make Corvo redundant, and Jurcina would get an edge over Morrisonn on cost alone.
They're coming.
by Bald Pollack on May 3, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
And this is what makes next year so problematic for the Caps. Yes, they have a ton of talent among the forwards, they have lot of potential on the blue line. They have promise in goal. But the three seem strangely out of sync. Next year… a Stanley Cup with two functional rookies on the blue line and a number one goalie with barely 50 games of experience, regular season and playoffs? That’s a tall hill to climb.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Well, there’s almost $2m committed to Sloskine, so there’s your safety net.
They're coming.
by Bald Pollack on May 3, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh. what are the odds that the Caps try and move one or both of them?
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Yes, they have a ton of talent among the forwards, they have lot of potential on the blue line. They have promise in goal.
which makes me think now isn’t the right time to change systems. keep running and gunning, because it suits your talent. the onus should be on the ovechkins and backstroms and semins to win playoff games. if the onus is on green, carlson, alzner, varlamov, the other team has dictated the game.
It didn’t work out so well this year. As 3 of the last 4 guys you listed held up their end MORE than enough in my opinion for the offense to win the series.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see us digesting Juice, of those three. I hear he has a good shot when he can get it off.
Some people die just a little.
I hear he has a good shot when he can get it off
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it’s hard and fast. thing is, he never unleashes it, and he’s sloooooow getting it off.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Oh my god, you guys – is this not intentional?!
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
get yer mind out of the gutter!
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
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I can see it in a foot race though. At least passing 55.
by Gin and Tonic on May 3, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see the D pairings next year as Green-Schultz as #1A, Carlson-Alzner as #1B and Poti-warm body as #3.
But, I probably have a more optimistic view of Carslon+Alzner than most, and a more negative view of Green+Schultz (entirely b/c of double nickel) than the norm around here.
Right now you should have a more negative view of that pairing because of 52, not 55.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
i think poti will be paired with more than a warm body. team needs to upgrade on d. volchenkov has been tossed around, as has hamhuis. dont know if they will spend the money on those guys, but they do need to focus on a sturdy dman. maybe they sign juice or shamo and that would leave erskine/sloan as buyout/send down candidates.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
I could see him passing Poti. But that would be having a 7 or an 8 rating for my next year expectations. Your original comment is about what I’d want for a 6 next year.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s also hard to see a jump from “not good enough to play in the NHL above TSlo or Erskine” to “called up for Game 7.”
I waited all year for this?
In the sense that a team expecting to make a long playoff run might not want to use one of their four non-emergency call-ups before they absolutely had to, which the team decided was prior to Game 7 when they needed to replace a big-minute/all-situation D and not just a third-pairing/low-responsibility guy.
Do I agree with that asset management? Hell no. Would I have had Alzner in D.C. to stay the moment Nylander was wheels-up out of Dulles? Hell yes. But I don’t think it’s hard to follow the logic of "not good enough to play in the NHL above TSlo or Erskine" to "called up for Game 7."
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I just don’t see how that’s a harder leap to him being a top 4 next year. If he actually stays in the NHL I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he isn’t pushing for a top 4 D by the end of next year without some sort of Volchenkov-type FA acquisition.
I waited all year for this?
Fair enough.
To me, there were a couple of key points during the season that Alzner could’ve been called up for good – when Nylander was shipped out and after the deadline – and there are reasons (whether you and I subscribe to them or not) why he wasn’t called up at those times, namely “to save cap room for a deadline splash” and “because the team is limited to four non-emergency call-ups,” respectively.
But you know that I’ve repeatedly wondered aloud, “If he’s good enough for Game 7, why not for the previous six, sixteen, etc.?”
Bottom line as it relates to this discussion, I suppose, is that a Cup-contending team entering the season with a guy who they weren’t willing to use a transaction on six/seven months earlier now in its top-four strikes me as less likely than that they’d try to use that a guy who’s on a hot streak as a spark to try to help save their season as an injury replacement in one game.
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Well why do you have to ascribe it to a “hot streak.” That implicitly knocks his actual skill/development level. Maybe he wasn’t hot. Maybe he’s just good. And certainly he’s better than Erskine or Sloan.
Put it this way: To me, it’s real hard to envision an NHL organization that is about to embark on a Cup run would decide to bury one of their 6 best D for whatever reason, only to realize their mistake before game 7 (when one of the guys above the call-up didn’t even get a single look in the series). Given how hard it is for me to believe that, and that it actually happened, I could see it turning out that the guy they were sitting on is not only a top 6, but a top 4 (and the 4 is much more likely when you give him another off-season to develop).
I waited all year for this?
I don’t follow. If it’s so hard to envision an NHL organization that is about to embark on a Cup run burying one of their 6 best D, only to realize their mistake before game 7, isn’t it possible or even likely that he’s not, in fact, one of their 6 best D? Or is the only option that they were investing in his future, to the detriment of their present-day fortunes?
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To some extent they were investing in their future. He got more time in Hershey than he would have in DC, and playing time is definitely a good thing for his development. I think they figured they’d get away with it, and for the regular season, they did. But they didn’t take the Habs seriously enough to bring him up earlier.
Waiting 'til next year.
I have no clue. Now I’m just in knots. If he wasn’t, in fact, one of the 6 best (or 8 best) then why was he called up? I just don’t think it makes sense that they were investing in his future by calling him up, but I haven’t found an explanation that makes sense.
I waited all year for this?
Yeah, I’m dizzy trying to make sense of it and forgot the initial point entirely. I think it was something about Alzner jumping in and getting top-four minutes next year, which, frankly, I see as unlikely given 52, 55, 3, 74 and any free agent acquisition they might make (if I had to put money down on whether or not Alzner would be in the top-4 on the team’s blueline in TOI/G, I’d bet not… but wouldn’t feel confident in the wager). But who knows – it’s a long ways off.
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ShaMo to Carlson’s Green. I can dig it.
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I actually believe that the ultimate partner at ES for 52 is Alzner. Not next year, mind you, but if ever there was someone who can skate like Mike Green who needed a partner who could skate almost like Mike Green, it’s Mike Green.
Some people die just a little.
Mike Green doesn’t skate like Mike Green anymore. Still very fast, but not blow-the-doors-off acceleration any more. I dearly hope he can get that back, because his direction changes are still very slick and he’s got plenty of puck-skill. But he really needs that extra gear to pull away from people and I’ve not been seeing it this year (or at the end of last year).
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by Knee high to a duck on May 3, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, to a degree; I think teams jumped on his ass in the first 100 feet to slow him down and it worked. Also, after he got popped at the redline going up the right side with his head down a few weeks ago (can’t remember the game ‘zactly), I didn’t see much of a zest for going coast to coast from 52. Tentative is the word I’m looking for.
Some people die just a little.
I felt like he did a much better job at reducing his PIMs this year. And then I went and looked it up. 68 PIMs this season, vs. 77 last season. Not so much.
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He had an extra 5 and 10 this year compared to last year. So, he actually did improve more than the numbers show (19 minors this season, 31 last season).
thanks for that. I just looked at the total minutes, obviously.
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3.
Maybe I had unrealistically high expectations for Karl coming into the season. I still think he’s going to be an excellent NHL player, but I was hoping for more this year. I don’t know how much of that is on Bruce and GMGM not inserting him into the lineup if he was ready and how much of it was unreadiness on his part, but in any combination I expected more.
There was much ado about Alzner’s strength (or lack thereof) and how hard he was working to build it in the offseason. I’m not sure if he needs another year to mature physically, or he’d benefit from some weight time with the Caps trainers during the season, but I just didn’t see the returns. He was still getting muscled off the puck along the boards and still struggled to make strength-based plays, at least when I was watching him specifically.
There were some moments that made me go, “Wow, this kid is going to be really, really good.” But those weren’t flashy plays, they were more subtle things. Surveying the ice and deciding to skate the puck out of the zone, instead of blindly dumping it up the boards to a waiting defender, or getting called for an icing. Smart little passes in his own end to relieve forecheck pressure, stuff like that. There were also times he flubbed those very same plays, but he’s a rookie, so I decided that element was a wash.
He’s got all the tools to play really excellent defense over the next decade plus – I just hope he takes a step forward, instead of treading water or going backwards, like he did this season.
To earn a 10, he’d have to earn top-4 minutes next season and place with Schultz and Green in +/- on/off. To meet my expectations for next season, he’ll need to play third pair minutes with quietly solid defense and PK well (Lord knows the unit could use the help).
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by Knee high to a duck on May 3, 2010 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I’m with you, Knee High, though I think maybe my expectations were a little more tempered to begin with. I haven’t voted yet, but I’m deciding between 4 and 5.
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I also had him at three. Wavered between 3 and 4. His regression put him at 3.
Remember, this is a guy who, when drafted, was supposed to be the “most NHL-ready” of the defensemen in the draft. It’s now almost 3 years on.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
If he was a winger I’d go the route you did. However, given what I’ve seen at the defensemen position I’m willing to give a guy 5-7 years (from draft date) to mature into NHL d-men role.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
You’re forgetting that part of the reason why Alzner went where he did in the draft was his “NHL-readiness.”
In 5-7 years, the kid’s basically a UFA. By that logic, you ought never to draft any defensemen.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I didn’t, I just don’t ever put a lot of stock in “NHL readiness” when it comes to D-men and goalies. I’ve been burned too many times both ways on that front.
Also, I think he was ready this year. I am beginning to question how the org mentors young d-men overall. Lack of confidence seems to be an issue that keeps coming up. See Alzner, Green, and Lepisto. Even Schultz at one point. Part of it is natural, but the other issue is the team not having a org not having a guy who young d-men can rely on for advice. I don’t think its a coincidence that Lepisto was much more confident in his play this season under the wing of Ulfie.
It’s one of the problem’s with drafting d-men in cap era. It reminds me of NBA team’s and high school players a couple of years ago and even early entry guys now. By the time they development you lose them or have to pay them max money.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
I didn’t, I just don’t ever put a lot of stock in "NHL readiness" when it comes to D-men and goalies. I’ve been burned too many times both ways on that front.
Honestly, neither do I. But when you’re drafted 5th overall, largely because of your perceived “readiness,” you’re going to be judged as such.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I understand completely why you see it this way. Your expectations were therefore higher than mine were.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
I hoped/expected him to grab a job out of camp. When he didn’t, I hoped/expected him to grab a job after Nyls went away. When he didn’t, I hoped/expected him to grab a job around the deadline. . .
I can’t believe we spent the whole year with ShaMo, Sloan and Erskine on the roster, but here we are.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
by D'ohboy on May 3, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I blame much of that on MGMT, not on Alzner. No reason he shouldn’t have been on the roster all winter. If this team couldn’t win with him having his ups and downs as he got comfortable then it wasn’t going to win anything regardless.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Exactly. Game 7 definitively proves that the organization realizes he’s one of the 6 best D they have. That’s all you can expect of him. Just because the organization snubbed him for Sloskine isn’t his fault, it’s just how it played out. He wasn’t in the AHL because he couldn’t hack the NHL; he was there out of poor asset management an abundance of caution.
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on May 3, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Certainly top 6 against a quick team like the Habs. I imagine that he wouldn’t have been called up against the Flyers.
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Yeah, that’s harder to see with PHI’s more intimidating forecheck.
But also, seems like 27 plays best right at the beginning of his callups, then regresses a bit as it goes on.
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by red army line on May 4, 2010 5:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, go back and look at that draft. It’s not like we passed up on a stud for him. And I remember you getting all up in arms previously about people judging guys on their draft position. Why are you all about it now?
I waited all year for this?
In Alzner’s case it’s because my expectations for his performance are based on his draft position.
If I were trading for two players and Player A was better, but Player B had been a higher pick, I wouldn’t give Player B’s slot any consideration.
But this exercise is about performance vs. expectation. Alzner was drafted in that slot because, despite lower projected upside (at least according to scouts), he was more ready for the NHL. Therefore, my expectations of him were that he’d have stuck with the team by now.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I think F&B’s point was that in that draft the top 10 wasn’t filled with can’t miss impact guys. Draft position is relative to the draft class itself.
If I misjudged your intent I apologize F&B.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Well that’s part of it, it just wasn’t a very deep draft so it’s not like we took Alzner because he was more NHL ready over a guy that was raw but had stud potential. Alzner had both more potential and was more NHL ready than any other guy in that draft.
But I also think it’s fundamentally unfair to use that to judge him given you have plenty to work with post-draft to determine what he should be able to do (and D’oh’s historic disapproval of using draft slot to evaluate a guy).
I waited all year for this?
It’s not hypocritical at when we’re talking about expectations.
In the evaluation of overall talent level/contribution, draft slot becomes less and less relevant the further you get away from a given player’s draft.
But for a guy like Alzner who only has 2 years of professional experience, and minimal NHL experience, part of his expectations are based on his draft slot.
To put this more succinctly, if Alzner had been drafted in the 4th round, we’re not even having this discussion. We’re just stoked that a low-round draft choice looks like a good NHL prospect.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
To put this more succinctly, if Alzner had been drafted in the 4th round, we’re not even having this discussion. We’re just stoked that a low-round draft choice looks like a good NHL prospect.
Wrong. I’d look at a guy that won the CHL awards he did, was a Team Canada Gold Medal Captain, gave a real solid contribution in a Calder Cup winning team as a rookie, and had the raw skills to play in the NHL already and I’d make my assessment. His draft spot didn’t do any of that for him. You don’t like when people rag on your boy C-Bo for being a second round bust; you didn’t like your perceived favoritism for Shamo over Juice because Shamo was a first. But now Alzner gets knocked because he is a 5 overall (which you exacerbate with “NHL ready”). I have high hopes for SDR, and it’s not because he was a 7th round pick.
I waited all year for this?
Re: Bourque, I don’t recall caring about him being a draft bust, I get annoyed when people think that the only reason anyone cares about him is his name. Maybe I’m misremembering.
Re: ShaMo and Juice, the context of that discussion was: which 26-year old defenseman do you play if they’re both healthy? Not, what are your expectations of a 21-year old defenseman? They’re just completely different arguments. In one, draft position has no bearing whatsoever. In the other, draft position is still relevant.
I also have high hopes for SDR, but my expectations for him are lower in part because he’s a 7th round pick, and the likelihood that 7th round picks make the NHL is goddamn low.
This close to his draft year, there’s just no way that some of our expectations for Alzner aren’t connected to his draft position.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I also have high hopes for SDR, but my expectations for him are lower in part because he’s a 7th round pick, and the likelihood that 7th round picks make the NHL is goddamn low.
That’s just silly. How can you watch the last two WJCs and YNC’s Farm Reports and not have a higher expectation of SDR than a “7th round pick.” The guy should be a lock for at least a 4th line role in the NHL. More specifically, the style he plays will fit in great on this team. Draft slot ignores all of this.
I waited all year for this?
It’s one of the problem’s with drafting d-men in cap era. It reminds me of NBA team’s and high school players a couple of years ago and even early entry guys now. By the time they development you lose them or have to pay them max money.
That’s exactly what Jim Rutherford says, and why he traded Jack Johnson. You can feel free to compare the ‘Canes’ blueline to the other teams in the league and determine how well that approach is working.
I waited all year for this?
Karl has played the most games (51) in the NHL of any dman drafted in 07. ellerby (22) in FLA and plante (1) in EDM are the only other dmen drafted in that first round who have played any games in the NHL so far.
so, was that a bad draft for dmen given that the 08 draft is lousy with dmen who have made an impact so far or is the 08 draft an anomoly?
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on May 3, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s 2 years on. Don’t use a rhetorical “almost 3” to try to make it sound worse. And go look at the rest of his draft class. He factually was (and is) the most NHL ready D in that draft.
I waited all year for this?
It’s much closer to 3 than 2. He was drafted in June of 07. It’s now almost June of 10.
By my math, that’s 3.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
Agreed that he’s done better than the other D on that list, but many of the “draft experts” had the Caps taking one of the many centers available that year, given our gaping hole behind Backstrom. A gaping hole that’s still there.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
Yes, it is a gaping hole…but would you want another year of ShaMo, Juice, Erskine, and Sloan rotating in and out of the lineup instead? Hell it might have ended up being 2 of that group.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I also gave him a 3. The expectation was that he’d be an every-game defenseman for the Caps. He wasn’t – and it wasn’t because of injury but one of perfornance. Hence a 3. I acknowledge that BB didn’t handle him well, but KA didn’t quite knock it out when he had his limited chances with the big club.
What more can I say? This is what the Caps do every spring.
Voted 2
My expectation was that he would either be on the roster to begin the season or make it shortly thereafter. He didn’t. When he was called up, he didn’t play in such a manner that screamed “play me over Sloan” or Ersking or player X.
On the whole, I was pretty disappointed. I don’t feel he needs to be an allstar, but he can contribute on this team and I fully believed it would have been sooner rather than later.
Given his style of play (and how bad the other two are), what would you need to see to scream “play me over Sloan”?
I waited all year for this?
I would like Alzner to be a menace to south central while drinking his juice in the hood. That’s what.
My expectations were — admittedly — pretty high for him. To my eyes, he did not play up to near where I thought he should and hence the comment I don’t believe he out played Sloan this year. So its not really what I need to see for him to be played over Sloan, as much as he needs to play the same in manner he did (or a more rounded version) last year to meet or exceed my expectations next year.
by ThreePingPost on May 3, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like Alzner to be a menace to south central while drinking his juice in the hood. That’s what.
You’ll be disappointed. Alzner will never be a mean, scary, takes dumb cross checking and elbowing penalties time of D-man. And I’m ok with that
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
Agreed. If he played a solid 17 min a night (even and PK), no flash, just consistent and smart, I’d be over joyed. The don’t be a menace line was a little bit of sarcasm.
by ThreePingPost on May 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
i gave him a seven, slightly above expectations. although being sent down was out of his control, i would have expected someone in that situation to have his play affected, and i didnt really see that from him, although clearly his game leveled off a bit before being sent down for the last time in the regular season.
also, some of the stats bear out that he played well when given the oppotunity and protected the puck well. lets also note he took few penalties (four minors, two in one game vs. st. louis), particularly of the stupid variety. none of the penalties resulted in pp goals and they won each game.
although he didnt play against the best competition, he did what he was asked and did it better than i would have expected given his yo-yo’ing and lack of a consistent defense partner.
plus he is working a pretty significant playoff beard…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
also, some of the stats bear out that he played well when given the oppotunity and protected the puck well.
The only thing I can think of there is turnovers, but that stat is notoriously poor because of how ill-defined (perhaps it isn’t definable as a bright-line stat, like a goal is) and how wide the variations in calls are between the arenas.
none of the penalties resulted in pp goals and they won each game.
I’m not buying causation in penalty taken versus success on the PK.
although being sent down was out of his control
Partially yes, partially no. I’m not sure how much was Alzner not playing brilliantly (his advanced stats are pretty brutal) and how much of it was the team not having enough foresight to get him NHL experience if he was going to crack the playoff roster, or how much was Bruce favoring Sloan and Erskine for whatever reason. He did have some control – play better and it’s less likely you’re sent down.
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by Knee high to a duck on May 3, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
well, i dont know how much variation there are in turnover calls per arena (like hit stats per example) but he played 21 games. more than enough to suggest that the ratio can be used to draw some conclusions.
yeah, not suggesting he know that his penalties would not lead to goal or losses, just throwing that in there. i do think the fact that he takes very few penalties both at the NHL and AHL level is important. i think that means he not only puts himself in good position to make plays, but dosnt get rattled and doesnt get caught running around in his end.
clearly if he played like a norris trophy candidate (or john carlson) he would have probably stayed up longer and/or had him be a call up after the trade deadline, but the nylander contract prevented him from starting the year with the big club. and then relative health of the other dmen plus the teams unwillingness to put guys like sloan or ersking through waivers kept him in chocolate town.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
A hard one right out the gate.
Just on face value, it would be hard to give Alzner anything but a 1. Top 5 pick playing only a handful of games in the NHL after being touted as the best defensemen in the world not in the NHL at one point.
Digging deeper, his flexibility in his contract and Carlson surpassing him on the food chain are reasons he stayed in Hershey. Also Boudreau and GMGM over saturating the blueline. At times he was good as anyone on the team and at times he looked like a 7th guy. That describes everybody on our blueline.
4.
I expect him to rebound if you will and blossom into the guy we all think he can be.
4th Floor, is next, swimvare, undervare, Eric Fehr...
Yeah, I have a hard time understanding such high scores given the scoring criteria JP outlined. That, or other people had massively lower expectations for Karl than I did. I also don’t understand the discussion (and letting him off the hook) around whether it was his “fault.” Look at Carlson, and I think it shows that no matter your age and experience, if you come in and kick @ss, you stick and get big minutes.
I gave him a 2. He had about the worst season imaginable given his draft position and track record coming in to this year.
That said, I’m still super excited about his future. He had a terrific Game 7, where he seemed to back up some of the things he’d said about what he’d learned from Carlson and his yoyo year. He’s got a good chance to grow into a legit #1 shutdown defender, and his personal growth and great attitude this year improve those odds.
Look at Carlson, and I think it shows that no matter your age and experience, if you come in and kick @ss, you stick and get big minutes.
Well that’s kind of the point: the only way one of those two was going to overcome BB’s love for Sloan was by coming in and kicking ass – not by coming in and just being a solid defender that is quietly better than Sloskine. Carlson did kick ass, but he also has a more flashy game than Alzner which helps him stand out (not that Carlson didn’t play better than him without the flashy moves).
On the one hand he was a little disappointing in that he didn’t stay up and he wasn’t as good as I hoped when he did play. On the other hand it’s gotta be tough to do your best when you are constantly going up and down and you know a single mistake or bad game sends you back to Hershey. Plus, he still showed (to me at least) that he was one of the 6 or 7 best Dmen in the system, despite what BB and GMGM thought which is what I wanted to see from him.
He also dominated in Hershey and was great in Game 7, so that evens out to meeting expectations for me. Gave him the high end of that, a 6, because I don’t like punishing him for personnel moves that I had criticized all year.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Without reading the comments – just wanted to give my short answer.
After playing 2 season ago, I expected Alzner to spend most of the season (if not all of it) on the NHL roster this season. It may have seemed high, but to be playing behind the likes of Erskine and Sloan… and getting passed by one of your peers (Carlson) on the move up, that to me was and should’ve been a “wake-up call” more than anything for the King.
I was very happy w/ his play in Game 7. I think next year he will be a solid, full-timer w/ the Caps… with the hopes that he sees second line minutes while playing on the 3rd pairing.
If the Caps get Volchenkov, where does Alzner sit?
Green, Shultz, Poti, Carlson, Volchenkov then one of Sloan/Erskine/Alzner?
In that case hopefully it is Sloskine sitting, not Alzner.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Since GMGM has already said both Alzner and Carlson are going to be up here for sure next year, I’m fairly confident in predicting they’re not bringing him up here to sit behind Sloan and Erskine. Those two are depth guys, at best.
However long the night, the dawn will break again
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on May 3, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately that’s not how they are being paid.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Sloan will make less than anyone next year (700), and Erskine makes less than anyone not on a rookie deal (and Sloan).
However long the night, the dawn will break again
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on May 3, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And they still make too much for an AHL dman and a 7th dman, respectively.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If the Caps get Volchenkov, then Alzner moves into the #5 or #6 defensive slot. What I would do if I had the expected 6 if the Caps pursue Volchenkov:
Even strength: 40% Poti/Volchenkov, 30% Green/Schultz, 30% Carlson/Alzner
PP: 60% Green/Ovechkin 30% Green/Carlson 10% Poti/Carlson (Carlson comes on late in the PP so that at the end we’re not caught with one D-man)
PK: 50% Poti/Volchenkov, 50% Alzner/Schultz with some spot duty for Carlson. Keep Green away from the PK unless it’s a 5 minute PK…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on May 3, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He did in game 7 of a Stanley Cup Playoff game…
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on May 3, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
How much were they together? I saw a lot of Carlson/Green in the 3rd, but I suppose by that time, the bench was really, really short.
A Lot
Alzner’s game 7, even strength combos:
77.97% EV 27 ALZNER,KARL – 74 CARLSON,JOHN
10.17% EV 27 ALZNER,KARL – 52 GREEN,MIKE
6.78% EV 27 ALZNER,KARL – 55 SCHULTZ,JEFF
5.08% EV 27 ALZNER,KARL – 77 CORVO,JOSEPH
Although Alzner spent 40% of his 2nd period EV time with 55.
Carlson spent 11% of his total time with 52 in the 3rd period, so I think you’re mis-remembering.
I’d rather Green play on the PK too and cut back his PP time, and maybe give some to Alzner? SJS did that sort of deal with ME Vlasic, and he’s turned out great. Alzner was getting PP time in Hershey, so I think he could handle a bit in DC too.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
by red army line on May 4, 2010 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Is this Volchenkov talk serious? While I’d love to have him we need a 2C far more than we need Volchenkov. And I don’t think we have money for both.
What more can I say? This is what the Caps do every spring.
I think everyone agrees 2C is a more pressing need than a D, but Semin-for-2C seems to make sense for a number of reasons. I don’t think you see a FA signing of a great center a la Marleau.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
by red army line on May 4, 2010 5:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Jeez
Lots of 7s and 8s. This is Steckel in the player rankings all over again.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
Possible case of a mutation of the strain of DavidSteckelItis that infected rink readers last summer
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
I think a lot of it had to do with all the kittens he saved.
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m quite sad I won’t be busting out that picture this May :(
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donation info for SAVES FOR KIDS 2010!! Make a difference.
Defensemen can many times need much more seasoning in the AHL before reaching their true potential. Players like Tyler Myers and John Carlson are rare in how they are able to adapt to the NHL game and make an impact almost immediately. So, while it would have been nice to see Alzner up and contributing all season, it may have been a wee bit premature to expect it from him. Maybe a season of bouncing around, getting a taste of NHL play, then going back to the AHL to work out the issues that arise, is exactly what the doctor ordered.
Alzner has shown flashes of the player he can become. If he can continue to build up his defensive game and PK contributions, and keep making smart, crisp passes out of the zone to start the breakout, he could be a fixture on the blueline for a while.
As far as this season goes. I dunno, I find it hard to expect too much from a kid who’s not spent a full year in the NHL yet. So for the amount of time he was here, he was probably about average. Knock off a point for him not seizing control of a starting spot by the end of the season, well, a 5 is probably fair.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
Not solely directed at you, but. . .
You’re talking about a guy who:
A) was supposed to be “NHL-ready” or nearly ready when he was drafted
B) Played more NHL games last year than he did this year
C) Played better in those games than he did this year
D) Couldn’t nail down a job out of training camp, losing out to the likes of Sloan and Erskine
E) Has been passed on the organizational depth chart by someone a year his junior.
How on earth can you think this year went “pretty much as planned,” when we thought Karl was up with the Caps for good last year?
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
was supposed to be "NHL-ready" or nearly ready when he was drafted
This continues to be a major crux of your argument, and it’s ridiculous. You’re now moving from “most NHL ready” to “NHL ready.” There is a huge difference. Look at the 2006 NHL draft, there is only 1 D that is currently more NHL ready than Alzner, and that’s the guy that went first overall. You’re being spoiled by the 2008 draft. That’s not normal.
Everything else you claim is out of his control with the exception of C. And I’m not even convinced of that. Take out the first 15 games last year when he was running on adrenaline and looked great and the rest of the year was terrible (as you’ve frequently noted). This year was much better than “bad Alzner” from last year, if not up to “adrenaline Alzner.”
Being passed by Carlson is a function of Carlson being ridiculous. That’s not Alzner’s fault. Losing to the likes of Sloskine out of camp was caused by the Nylander situation. Later, TSlo got extended and the organization was invested in those two guys. What happened when push came to shove? Alzner was given a sweater over Sloskine. That should be all you need to know about whether or not he’s ahead of them on the depth chart.
I waited all year for this?
Maybe my expectations of Alzner are just higher than yours.
Say that you buy BB’s “Lefty-Righty” argument – in that case, all Alzner had to do was beat out Erskine and Sloan in training camp. But he didn’t. I watched the preseason games – he looked hesitant and nervous while Erskine and Sloan looked like a couple of guys playing for their lives.
On the occasions this year when he came up, he looked similarly shaky.
I want Alzner to succeed in the worst way, and my expectations for him this year were that he’d nail down a regular spot in our top-6. He didn’t. Not only that, but he seemingly took a step back while failing to live up to my expectations.
Hence, he gets a 3 from me.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I gave him a 4. That’s because I don’t punish him for stuff out of his control. But to say I have less high expectations for Alzner is silly. I’m the guy that predicted he’d be a top 4 D by the end of this season. You can apply your 9 month old post-hoc “he looked shaky in the pre-season” crap but it’s irrelevant. First, the team couldn’t really afford him at that point. Second, he was still better than Sloskine. Third, I don’t even think he was that shaky.
It should be abundantly clear that the reason Alzner wasn’t in the NHL all year has nothing to do with Alzner. Does GMGM think he’s good enough to be an NHL player? Yes. He was called up for Game 7. Don’t even think about saying “well maybe he wasn’t ready until April 25 and then all of a sudden he was NHL ready.” It doesn’t work like that and a team wouldn’t call a guy up for game 7 unless they were convinced he was the better option than the “NHL” players above him. He was buried because GMGM and BB were guilty of some combination of playing favorites and being too smart for the room. Is there a single other NHL team that Karl Alzner wouldn’t have cracked the roster? Chicago is the only one I could possibly think of, and it would be a cap thing that kept him out.
I waited all year for this?
I was hoping for him to take his opportunities and run with them. He didn’t play as well as I’d hoped when he got his chances. I agree that he should have been up this year, and I’m just as confused as you that he wasn’t. Still, I expected him to be top-4 this year and his NHL play regressed from last year.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
I just find it hard to expect top-4 minutes out of a guy who had only played 30 NHL games coming into this year. I mean, that’s a huge jump. Most players do not do that. So when I say “pretty much as expected,” I guess I just didn’t expect as much out of him as you do…which is the point of the poll, anyways.
I can see your points, and if you expected him to be a top-4 guy, then you were sorely underwhelmed by Alzner this year. I just happen to think that wouldda been a bit much to ask someone so young.
His best days are still ahead of him. If he’s still having issues cracking an NHL roster next year, well, then maybe we can start to worry. I do not expect that to be the case, though.
This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die! Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
by ZeroIndulgence on May 3, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
While MGMT maybe had something to do with his not being up, if he was top-4 good this season, no way MGMT keeps him in Hershey, I think, especially looking at JC74. If they felt 27 was only third-pairing good, I could see them keeping him down.
I think if 27 played excellent hockey, he would’ve been up. But he didn’t, and to be fair, that’s an unfair expectation of him.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
by red army line on May 4, 2010 5:11 AM EDT up reply actions
4
Primarily would’ve liked to see him have a much better GAON/60 and keep Sloan from playing in 40 regular season games, though part of that BB takes credit for, and it’s what kept me from rating him a 3.
Gave him a 6.
I think with a better sample of his playing he could have earned himself an 8 or a 9.
Also, JP
I am SO excited for these Rink Wraps.
Thanks for doing them again.
proud 4th line advocate
resident master jinxer
i gave him a 6 before fully thinking it through….really should have been a 5 since i thought he was slightly below average. he is, however, still rather inexperienced and played “decently” when he was on the ice. i would expect him to play consistently next year and improve once hes off of the hershey-washington yo-yo. could have been anywhere between 4-6, but 6 works for me.
these rink wraps are gonna be quality reading for the next few weeks!
3 for me. I expected him to be a solid third pairing guy early and blossom into a top 4 guy in time for the playoffs.
I’m not horribly worried about his future, just disappointed in this past season.
For him to earn a 10 next year he needs to stay healthy, play regular minutes ES and on the PK, not be a healthy scratch more than twice, spend 0 days in Hershey, and make at least a marginal offensive contribution (15+ points on the season).
4. I was close to giving him a 3, simply because I expected to see him a lot this year, and didn’t. However, he was one of 2 bright spots in game seven, so he gains a point. Even if it’s just due to recency bias.
by RPI93 on May 3, 2010 2:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I gave him a 2. I expected him to be in the NHL the entire season, and I expected him to be productive at that level the entire season. Him not being there was a combination of a log jam, his level and ability, and likely some factors I don’t know, but since a 5 (for me) was him contributing all season, I can’t justify any higher.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
relative to his potential and your expectations for the season
a flavor of the JR community’s expectations for king karl, from last year’s wrap.
he’s probably looking at 2nd or 3rd pairing maybe?
by Bald Pollack
(In reply to BP) I agree.
by DrinkingPartner
He’ll be here next year. Alzner’ll be a solid 15 mintues-a-night guy and he’ll be able to do a bit more when injuries make that necessary.
by TylerG
Next year, I see him getting top four minutes and eventually I think he’ll be a top two pairing with Green.
by b.orr4
To be a "10" next season Karl would of course have to make the team, play top 4 minutes including the PK/PP and have 30+ points.
by FAUXRUMORS
There’s no reason to believe…
…Alzner can’t be a top 4 d-man next year and get a lot of 5-on-5 and PK time (he’ll get the PK time by default as he doesn’t take many penalties, so he’ll be needed in killing them.)
by MikeL-Caps
To get a 10 from me next year -
On the big club roster for 82, 5/35/40, <30 PIM, show some willingness to throw a hit, top-3 on team in D takeaway/giveaway, +10 or better, establish himself as 2a/2b (player, not pairing) on the defensive depth chart.
To get a 5 from me -
On the big club roster for 50-60, 2/15/17, become a 2nd-pairing regular, gain experience on the PK (to hopefully improve it…)
by meep_42
And TOI is a key stat for me for Alzner. He gets a 10 from me if he averages 28+ and is effective. He gets a 5 from me if he averages 20+ and is effective.
by Gould Old Days
I expect that coming out of camp he will make the team next year, and will probably log 18 minutes per game. The sky is the limit on Alzer though, could easily see him as the stay at home guy for Green by the end of the season, logging 22+ minutes per game.
by HateOffSeason
tyler, BP and others agreed with HOS, that if shaMo’s RFA offer came in too high, alzner could be given a shot alongside #52. (since poti and schultz seemed to be a fixture last season.)
sorry for the length of this post, but i wanted to draw people’s attention to the general expectations. alzner played in 9 fewer games this year, took more PIMs, logged less TOI/G, and had worse GAON/60, +/-ON/60 and corsi numbers. to think he even met expectations is a stretch, so votes above 6 (“exceeding expectations”) aren’t sitting right with me. it’s comforting to think “well JC blew the roof off, so BB felt comfortable keeping him in the NHL, but alzner was quietly getting it done, so it’s natural he was overlooked.” but for a team with stanley cup plans, alzner wasn’t really getting the job done. he wasn’t even living up to his previous season’s production.
by Natty Bumppo on May 3, 2010 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 9 recs
I wonder how much of that is influenced by the fast start last year. The sample size isn’t big enough!
I waited all year for this?
He got called up 7 times, but he didn’t really get a fair chance on all of them. It was pretty clear Sloan wasn’t going anywhere regardless of the merits and they weren’t going to keep 9 D. He played well enough to be a top 6 even when he was here. He was just on the Theo-leash so he didn’t stick.
I waited all year for this?
In fairness, Tyler Sloan does have a well deserved long term contract!
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Well deserved. This term, I do not think it means what you think it means.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hi. I’m Whiter Mage. If I’m praising Tyler Sloan, it’s snark.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
I can never be sure. You do like Flash after all.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As a former member of the Flash Lobby, that stings. (BTW, we have some nice office furniture on eBay, check it out… cause we’re goin out of business!)
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad to see you realize futility when it under performs when I counts knocks at your door
Now about that Sloan lobby
proud 4th line advocate
ouch.
Now you’re just piling on.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
So what if I like Flash? He’s a damn good skill position player. But that’s it, and we have more pressing needs.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
It kind of sucks that we do have more pressing needs.
Why the fuck does this team have to be perfect to win a cup?
proud 4th line advocate
It doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to work harder.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
not perfect, just the right mix… like every other team.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s not a damn good skill position player. He’s ok and unreliable.
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on May 3, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
He’s a damn good skill position player in the same way that Amstel is a dam good bier… which is to say not at all.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on May 3, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Eh, it's Amstel's ad campaign
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think he was saying heineken is worse….or at least thats what my link was referring to.
by twistedlogic on May 4, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
No, he’s good. The problem for him is in this league, you have to be better than good. Good teams can make the playoffs and still lose. Good is a relative term here. I tend to think about these guys in the same terms we use in the band world for judging. Good is only the third tier above Fair and then Poor. Superior and Excellent are above that.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
In my opinion, he needs a 10 year extension. He’s more important than Backstrom. We got him for a steal!
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
We just have incredibly devious staff who are purposely telling him to under perform so he won’t get poached by other teams. I heard Sloan was playing with Carlson’s jersey on for most of the playoffs.
3 years from now we will have a young Desjardins quarterbacking our blue line.
Sloan for Hart in 12-13!
proud 4th line advocate
There’s no doubt that he was having a little head trip in the beginning, and he said as much, with all the superstitions and worrying. Which brings up the point I think needs to be considered:
Expectations are being set too high. He’s played small parts of two NHL seasons, he’s 21, he’s had no NHL mentoring worth noting. To expect him to come in and be a top 4 or top 2 defenseman his first full year in the NHL seems unreasonable. Sure, a few do it, but the majority of defensemen take years to develop.
by The Jade Donkey on May 3, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
well he was playing almost 20 mins per game last year as a rookie. combined with his 3rd-best 5-on-5 QualComp among defensemen and his #2 corsi rating (behind green), i’d say he was far enough in front of the defenseman curve to deserve some of the expectations. but no doubt he’ll always be viewed a bit differently because of his draft slot.
I was so hoping somebody would pull this (I was thinking about doing it), Rec’d for the work.
I think the expectations were too high, I thought at the end of last year a 5 would mean he was a regular from the halfway point on and contributing well, a 10 would be a top line guy would contributed 20+ per game.
Thus I think he’s a 4 (tho I voted as a 7 before thinking very much… my bad).
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It totally is...
Not kidding.
Mea culpa.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec’d for the work, and a potential flag/retroactive hide for any dumbassed statements I may have made then.
They're coming.
hey at least you followed the directions and took a stab at next year’s performance! not enough comments re: next year’s production in this comment section, i don’t think.
Next year I expect him to be a full-time NHL player and finally start to look fully confident in his NHL game. A 10 would mean top pair ES and top pair PK with more points than Schultz. A 5 is probably just taking a regular shift, skating about 16-18 a night with some PK2 duty and a short leash from Bruce.
I waited all year for this?
That’s about where I’m at.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m on that same general path.
A 10 for me next year would be he and a linemate (presumably Carlson) would be the top important minutes pair (even if not the most minutes because of Greeners offensive skills) entrusted with late game shut-down minutes, heavy PK rotation, strong +/- and recognized as first or second best 2 way defenseman on the team (he and Carlson likely).
A 5 for me next year would be starting out slowly as a 5-6 paring D-man, and progressing to the end of the year being a 3-4 D pairing with 16-18 minutes a night. Hopefully riding on the success and chemistry he has with Carlson.
As for riding a “rookie pair” of defenders… that doesn’t scare me at all. Carlson is blooming star (superstar?) in this league who was already a top 25 defender in this league by seasons end. Thus I’m not afraid of having him with Alzner who will need seasoning and will undoubtedly make some mistakes, but overall be (hopefully) and extremely strong pairing.
Yes, my expectations are high, but I’ve felt since last year that given the time to make mistakes, Alzner will become a very good player in the league and I’m waiting to see him do it. If he takes longer than expected I won’t be upset, but just disapointed and still hopeful. Because I feel he has the skill and head needed to be really really good.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Scale for next year
I generally agree with F&B, but I’m hesitant to base my expectations on “Top pair” status, given its dependency on other D-men.
10: I don’t have specific numbers in mind, but a 10 would involve Alzner shining at EV and PK and at least a full point-reduction in his 5v5 GAON/60 (3.21 -highest of any D-man this season). >65gp
5: Moderate improvements in his stats and >50gp
Great work.
So this reinforces the idea that… people are voting horribly. Alzer should probably be a 5 max, even if you had very tempered expectations of him. And if you thought he was going to be anywhere near cracking the lineup day to day, let alone top 4 D pairing, then he should get a 2, 3 or 4.
Take Gould as a reference point:
And TOI is a key stat for me for Alzner. He gets a 10 from me if he averages 28+ and is effective. He gets a 5 from me if he averages 20+ and is effective
Just from that quote alone, Gould should give Alzer a 2 or 3. His expectation (5) of him was to be a 20 minute a night guy in the NHL, and the result was him playing a handful of crappy games, and most of his time spent at Hershey.
I gave him a 4 because I wasn’t sure whether he would play day to day up here, but I think I could justify a 3. How people are giving him 6-8 is crazy. That would imply you thought he would be an average AHL guy and play a game or two of injury relief for the big squad. Which to say, is not a bad opinion, but you can see that people are still struggling with the point system… which I like very much, aside from the fact that people are generally… not understanding it.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on May 3, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re just getting started. Just you wait until Most Valuable Caps returns.
I waited all year for this?
by Rob Parker on May 3, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
people are voting horribly.
Guilty. I want to change my vote. I voted a 7 and really it should be a 4, mostly because I have very high (probably unreasonably so) expectations for him
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I did want to be Jaromir meet Alex after the Olympics! Now I have a duty to do so…
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not a big enough sample size to determine for sure whether people are understanding the system.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on May 3, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
5
He did what I expected a rookie defenseman to do. He struggled at times. In part, due to his own nervousness, expectations, and fears, and other times due to who he was partnered with. He looked shaky with Erskine but he looked pretty comfortable with Carlson. I remember thinking he did well on the PK, though the PK is horrid. For every up there’s a down. So 5 it is.
I will say this, though: if he was good enough to play in game 7, he was good enough to have been kept up earlier. He probably would have been had the Nylander episode been resolved last summer.
Making sense of QUALCOMP numbers for Alzner
Based on my screwy math (that is definitely flawed) I came up with the following number in comparing QUALCOMP for Karl and other Caps.
5on5
QUALCOMP -.057 translates to 10 pts/season players (essentially 3rd and 4th line players)
Corvo and Poti (tops on the team) by comparison skated against a translated number of 74 and 67 pts/season players respectively (essentially top 1st line players)
4on5
QUALCOMP -.057 translates to 27 pts/season players (essentially 3rd line players)
Poti by comparison (top on team) skated against a translated number of 41 pts/season players (essentially 2nd line)
The difference in opponent quality shorthanded is not as high (understandably since only skill players play on the powerplay) so his success their should show some real promise. And hopefully mitigating factors for his 5on5 play turn out to be true, because his competition was weak.
Reminder: QUALCOMP numbers are already biased against the top skilled players in the league which shows why our 4on5 numbers are so low (and why my calculation shows the power plays against us were only staffed with 2nd line talent — clearly not the case — but since our players tend to be more skilled that the opposing players on the powerplay it skews things).
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
yeah it sucks when we lose a playoff game and one of my only consolations is “at least rink wrap season will be interesting.”
We may not win cups, but damn if we don’t have the best bloggers in the world.
proud 4th line advocate
by iced on May 3, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This, btw does not mean I want our bloggers to start being terrible once we win the Cup.
proud 4th line advocate
by iced on May 3, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe if we start sucking, it’ll bring the Caps a Cup.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s really too bad 80% of us commentators are assholes.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on May 3, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jackasses, I believe, was the term. Not to say 80% of you aren’t assholes.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Trade:
Bloggers for Cup (sorry J.P. … but I mean… seriously).
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on May 3, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve thought about that too. I wonder if they even do a real ceremony and what the reception is like.
I waited all year for this?
I’d trade two girls for one cup.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
by D'ohboy on May 3, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I do not want the contents of that cup.
by DrinkingPartner on May 3, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Rink wraps are what made me start thinking of a punny user name. Ranking the Capitals is what made me put that name into action.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on May 3, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I just wish they had come about 2 months later.
2009-2010 Washington Capitals: Watery, with a smack of ham.
by D'ohboy on May 3, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
4
btw, i gave KA a 4, and would need to see him become a top-line PKer and return to 20 min TOI/G to earn a 10 next season. i’d be satisfied with alzner as a 5-6 defenseman who plays 75 games and has respectable defensive and plus-minus stats.
I gave him a 3
after deliberation (and reading some of these comments) I probably should have gone 4, but no higher than that. I expected him to be on the big club all year, and he wasn’t, so no way he can get a 5 or higher.
My criteria for a 5 next year is probably about the same as it was this year: play 60+ games at 16+ minutes, get some quality PK time, don’t be a liability. My criteria to get a 10 would be taking over for schultz in the top pairing, taking over for Poti as the PK bell-cow, putting up Schultz-ian + / – numbers, and contributing 20+ points offensively. (keep in mind, these are not my EXPECTATIONS for him, this is what would be required to blow my socks off).
I gave him a four. I think the fact that he was taken so high in the draft will always be a factor in how he’s judged, even years down the road. I love these wraps, by the way.
Tic Tac Toe Hockey -- Original Caps Photography For The Fan With Compromised Standards
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"Here's the thing about potential: There's potential, and then there's reality. I mean, nobody had more potential than Ted Kaczynski." --Adam Carolla
by turnituptoeleven on May 3, 2010 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
Six
go get that AHL championship! and be ready to be a full timer with the Caps in 2010
by Mikko Leinonen's opposite on May 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
5 leaning towards 4. Had a great burst the previous year when he first came up ( I remember a Saturday night game in Toronto in particular). This year I found him shaky at times steady at others. Thought he performed well in Game 7. See him next year as a 2nd-3rd D pairing guy. I like how he plays with Carlson but wouldn’t mind him taking ShaMo’s minutes next year on the 3rd pairing.
The bed will not be shat.
I rated Alzner a 4. I was expecting him to be on the NHL squad the entire season. I agree with the sentiment that he regressed this year, irregardless of all the recalls.
When I saw that the games played was 21 I was stunned. I would have never guessed he played that many games. This was telling for me.
During training camp last year Alzner made several comments about working to add some grit to his game. I wonder if he was trying to be a player that he isn’t. Pure conjecture on my part.
From last year’s wrap comment:
“To get a 10 from me next year -
On the big club roster for 82, 5/35/40, <30 PIM, show some willingness to throw a hit, top-3 on team in D takeaway/giveaway, +10 or better, establish himself as 2a/2b (player, not pairing) on the defensive depth chart.
To get a 5 from me -
On the big club roster for 50-60, 2/15/17, become a 2nd-pairing regular, gain experience on the PK (to hopefully improve it…)"
Clearly not a 10, or even in shouting distance… And not a 5, either. Maybe I was over-optimistic given his 2008-09 season, but for this year he gets a 3 (and I don’t really understand how he’s getting 6-7s dominating the poll – but I guess I’ll read the comments now)
I’m putting next year’s benchmarks a little lower than above:
10 – 82g (except if injured), 4/30/34, + the rest
5 – 50-60g (""), 2/13/15, + rest, maybe give a little allowance for not being top-4 depending on next year’s roster.
-d
I have to give him a 5. If 6 is the high end of “what I expected” then 5 it is. He wasn’t that bad in the small sample size, and maybe our expectations were a little bloated considering his style of play. Truth be told I didn’t expect him to get as much ice time this year because I wasn’t sure if our salary cap situation would ever get fixed. Even though it did and he probably should have had more time up here, given my expectations for what I thought would happen with him it went about as expected. I wish there wasn’t as many guys on the roster he’d have to leapfrog over in the lineup, but realistically the only 2 guys in the lineup he was going to replace come end of the year/playoffs was going to be ShaMo or Poti. I think if Schultz went down they’d elevate Poti and ShaMo one pairing each and plug in Sloan for the #6 spot. He got plugged in anyways when ShaMo was hurt for 2 games and maybe they could have went with Alzner instead, but it is what it is.
I don’t expect a 10 next year, because that would essentially mean taking over as part of the #1 pairing on a team that vastly improves it’s GA and PK%. Also would be a team that gets to at least the SCF. I’m hoping for a 7 or 8 next year in that he solidly locks down a top 4 D spot, puts up a good +/- number and helps out on the PK. Staying up with the team the entire year next year is a lock for anything above a 6.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
So you don’t expect him to stay with the team the entire year next year?
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
I absolutely do. I didn’t expect it this year although the situation I thought would prevent it was removed fairly early on. I’d expect at the very least he’ll be up all of next season and be in the top 6. That would be a 6 for me. If he starts picking up bigger minutes than that and pushing a top 4 spot that would be higher than a 6 next year.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Staying up with the team the entire year next year is a lock for anything above a 6.
I might have misunderstood.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
Ah gotcha, maybe I should have said 6+. Of course there is always the possible conditioning stint if an injury occurs although obviously I hope that does not happen.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Also would be a team that gets to at least the SCF.
ovechkin is the only player i’m willing to grade on team success, and only now as captain. unless you’re withholding 10s from everyone, it becomes difficult. weirdly, i’ve given 10s to goalies two years in a row heading into this season (huet, then varlamov). needless to say, no goalie 10s this year on my ballot.
In general, when I think of 10, that’s the almost unreachable type of year. A step above individual numbers and achievements, going a step further into being a key part of the ultimate team success.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
To use Ovie as an example…had I been posting on here that far back and assuming these ratings have been going on that long…when he put up 65 goals I’d give that year a 9 for him. You expect amazing individual performance from him every year, but that was a cut above anything and probably more than anyone thought could be scored nowadays. Hence the 9. Anything above a 9 in my book has to be turning it to team success.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Like if Poti’s fight vs Gomez could be stretched across an entire season of play?
proud 4th line advocate
Hahaha…interesting way of describing it. But on a much smaller scale I guess that applies in the sense he was doing something completely amazing we wouldn’t expect and the team (in that game at least, smaller scale like I said) completely used it to help vault itself to a great comeback win.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly, I mean if we were doing this on a game by game basis, I think your qualifications for a “10” would fit Poti’s game 2 performance (specifically the fight)
Naturally its one game, one incident.
But I am just trying for tangible examples
proud 4th line advocate
Yeah I gotcha…I guess I’m still kinda messing things up by applying my own idea to what a “10” is. But if a 10 is the best year I can imagine a guy having, at this point with this team next year, it has to be an amazing year that is a vital piece of a team that wins the East in the playoffs next year (at least).
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
More clarification…vital in that they did whatever job they have on the team well.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
understood.
For me, just casually flipping through our players in my mind I think Brads is one of the few people deserving of a “10”.
proud 4th line advocate
I’d probably give guys like Brads, Backstrom, and Fehr 8’s or 9’s. We’ll see
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
if cody eakin made the team next year and finished second to AO in goals scored…then yes, i’d give him a 10. :)
but you’re right that even with my huet vote, i built in the reward of carrying the caps to the playoffs that year. had the caps fallen short, i don’t think i’d have doled out the 10. all the same…goalies aside, a player can only factor so much into a team’s success. ovechkin did just about everything he could have done during the pens series last year, but since he and varly were the only two that showed up, the team fell short. the best forwards in the league only play 1/3 of the game. certainly for a player like alzner, i don’t put the team’s success or failure on his shoulders. if the team wins the cup, does every single player get a 1-point bonus in your scoring system?
Yeah I could understand that 10 THAT year with Huet. Because the expectations that year weren’t anything near what they achieved for most people I’m sure. Given what you’d expect from Huet coming in for a 2nd round pick him running the table like that to carry us to the division title and the playoffs I could see a 10 being warranted that year even by my standards because of the team success.
No not every player would. Imagine if we won the Cup but the #7 D man did mostly decent work in relief during the year but we stayed healthy in playoffs and he saw no ice time. Let’s even assume it was Sloan. He plays however many games injuries dictate next year (20-50ish range most likely) and does fine in relief duty but doesn’t play at all in the playoffs. He’d probably get a 7 or an 8 from me for playing above what I expected for the year, but he doesn’t get any bonus just cause we won the Cup. Same for even someone who did see ice time.
The whole +1 from a 9 to a 10 for me would be someone who was a key contributor in whatever role they take on that ended up being a vital piece to the team’s success (like winning the Cup in your example). That could mean a 4th liner like Gordon could get it for having a good regular season and some timely playoff scoring while being awesome in faceoffs, PKing, and having great shifts at 5 on 5. That sort of thign.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on May 3, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Late to the party again…not to mention that I failed my resolution to give up all things hockey for a few weeks.
Anywho…I scored him a 4. Not getting much of a taste this year and being yo-yo’ed were by no means his fault, but his time wearing a sweater did not meet my pre-season expectations for him. I thought he looked tentative and nervous at times…no where near the 3/4/5 defensman I thought he was going to be this year.
To get a 10 next season he’ll need to play 20+ minutes a game and evolve into a top 2 shut down dman. More realistically (7-8 score) I expect him to fill the 4/5 role I thought we’d see him in this year while gradually taking over Poti’s spot on the PK.
Hah, I am usually late to the party too. . .
Remember, we are rating the players according to their relative potential and our expectations. Honestly, I think you have to give him a lower end ranking because he was yo-yo’d by the team, and never allowed to really show his stuff on the big stage. That being said, i feel like when we did see him with the big boy team, he performed very well.
With regards to your prospects next season, i don’t think giving him a 10 only if he is a top 2 shut down d-man is reasonable with to his potential. But then again, you may have higher expectations that I do.
I would say a 10 for Alzner would be to become a mainstay with Carlson on the 2nd line, and yes, take up some ice time on the PK. He could have done that this year; but, the brass didn’t give him that chance.
It's The Wait for Red October. Except rather than Sean Connery, Alex Baldwin, and Sam Neill, it's George McPhee, Bruce Boudreau, and Alex Ovechkin.
Not Tom Clancy, but Gary Bettman. Not the Soviet Kremlin, but. . .well. . . .yeah, the Soviet Kremlin
Better late than never...
Long time lurker, first time poster. Joined to comment on Rink Wraps and beyond, who knew there was a 24-hour waiting period? I can buy shotguns at Wal-Mart faster than that.
On topic, I gave Alzner a 7. I don’t think you can discount his AHL production, it’s not his fault he was jerked between DC and Hershey seven (!) times. And when left to his own devices in Hershey, he was solid 5-on-5, on the PK and PP, he stays out of the box, and he has chemistry with Carlson. With the talent on the NHL roster, I doubt he’ll be asked to do much on the PP, so hopefully he can focus on the defensive aspects of his game. Now all of the positives might not translate over 82 games in the bigs, but at some point you have to give him a shot. And it sounds like GMGM/BB will do just that in ‘10-’11.
by J.R. Howard on May 4, 2010 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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