2010 Caps - 3rd greatest offensive team. Ever.

by Phil23 on Apr 9, 2010 3:39 PM EDT

Adjusting for scoring level of the era, the 2010 (5.67 goals/gm) Washington Capitals are the 3rd greatest offensive machine of all time, behind only the Mario's 1996 (6.29 goals/game) Pens and Gretz's 1984 (7.89 goals/game) Oilers.

In '84 terms - GOALS FOR: 1996 Pens - 454, 1984 Oilers - 446, 2010 - Caps 443.

And to quiet complaints from the other end of the ice, only three teams in the last decade have had a better goal differential than the Caps +83 this season. We are incredibly lucky to be watching this team this season. Relish it, Revel in it. This sort of season does not happen, well, pretty much, ever.

EXHILARATING DOMINACE.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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How does one adjust scoring level for different era’s?

by Brainumbc on Apr 9, 2010 4:20 PM EDT reply actions

The imagination of this one.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Apr 9, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Just take the average goals/game for each year and come up with the ratio. For instance, this season the league is averaging 5.67 goals/game. In 1984 the league averaged 7.89 goals/game. So obviously, it was much easier to score in ’84, so we have to account for that. So divide 7.89 by 5.67, which equals 1.39. That says that in 1984, the league averaged 34% more scoring. So just bump up the Caps goals scored total this season by 39%:

Caps have scored 310 so far this season in 80 games. That projects to 318 in 82 games. So multiply 318 by 1.39 and we 443 goals that the Caps would have scored had they played during the scoring era of the 1984 season.

by Phil23 on Apr 9, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Well, the 1984 Oilers only played 80 games, so the Caps number would need to be adjusted down a bit.

That said, looking at the figures another way can reduce the impact of the era in which the game was played a bit more. Goal scoring has decreased, for certain. But parity across the league has increased substantially. I did a quick analysis of the 1984, 1996 and 2010 stats using a different method. I calculated the average goals per game for each team, in each of those 3 seasons. I used the average goals per game to determine the mean, and standard deviation for the number of goals scored per game in each of those seasons.

In 1984, NHL teams averaged 3.94 Goals/Game
In 1996, NHL teams averaged 3.14 Goals/Game
In 2010, NHL teams have averaged 2.84 Goals/Game

I then calculated the standard deviation for each season:

1984 = .552
1996 = .455
2010 = .293

The standard deviation provides a very interesting insight into how the game has evolved, and in some ways speaks to the effectiveness of the salary cap. There is much more parity today compared to 1984 and 1996. Today, good teams and bad teams tend to put up pretty similar goal totals. The Oilers scored 23 goals in their three games against the Penguins, who managed 16 wins on the season (the player they selected with the first overall choice from the 1984 draft would go on to save hockey in Pittsburgh… twice). The Oilers managed 21 goals in three games against the Devils (including 13 in one game), who edged out the Pens with 17 wins. Good teams in 1984 were good, the Oilers were very very good, but bad teams were far worse than anything we see in the modern NHL.

I then calculated the z-score for each of the teams. This allows us to assess how the offenses compare to the other teams in the NHL that season, and gives us a sense for how dominant these offenses were when using a hypothetical average NHL offense that season as a baseline. A z-score of 2 is very high. I can’t say for sure without running all the numbers, but a 2.5 would probably put a team in the top 10 all time. For comparison, the 2010 Blackhawks (who have the second highest goal total in the NHL) were a 1.58 when I ran my numbers, the Canucks were a 1.48.

1984 Oilers = 2.95
1996 Pens = 2.79
2010 Caps = 3.58

By this measure, comparing the Caps offensive production in the context of the 2009-2010 NHL season, to the 1996 Penguins, and the 1984 Oilers in their respective seasons, the Caps offensive production is clearly better than either the Oilers or the Penguins. Both the 1984 Oilers and 1996 Penguins had stunningly good offenses for their era. In context, the Caps offensive production this year is just statistically outrageous.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Apr 10, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 19 recs

I suggest you post this as a FanPost, maybe with some of your raw data as well. Rec’d.

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink

by red army line on Apr 10, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Dude, this is amazing. You really ought to make it a full-on FanPost.

Also, I might hit you up for some stats help at some point, because you’re clearly better at this than I am. :)

I'm not JTRS compliant.

by D'ohboy on Apr 10, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks!

I thought about creating my own post, but I only ran the numbers for the years the OP used, so I thought they fit better here than elsewhere. While the chances are quite remote that there is another team that achieved a higher z-score than 3.58, it wouldn’t be proper without analyzing the top z-score from all the NHL seasons. I am 95% sure no one will be higher than a 3.58, but I can’t say for certain that’s the case.

I’ll work up a more complete analysis once tax season is over.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Apr 10, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I can’t wait for your more complete analysis—thank goodness tax season is almost over. Your data has me salivating with anticipation. It dovetails nicely with what I recall BB saying sometime near the end of the streak—that he and the guys expected to have a good year but not THIS good!!! Not an offensive production that “statistically outrageous” (my favorite phrase of yours).

by capsyoungguns on Apr 10, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s like statistics class all over again (only a much more interesting example). Excellent job, and a rec for you.

by Capcrazy77 on Apr 10, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Great stuff. I had to read it like 5 times because my eyes keep glazing over.

A pretty girl is like a violent crime.

by Rob Parker on Apr 10, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Does this include inflation?

by Capsfan07 on Apr 10, 2010 2:41 AM EDT reply actions

@iwearstripes – great stuff on the SD and Z score. I have had those same kind of feelings but to see it quantified is great. 3.58 – mind blowing.

by Phil23 on Apr 10, 2010 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

Stick tap to you man. I never would have thought to break down the numbers this way if you hadn’t inspired me.

A couple random things I came across while compiling and checking my data:

The most interesting thing I came across in trying to rationalize the results was the game summary for the 83-84 Oilers from Hockey-reference.com. The Oilers, who had the highest scoring offense in history, managed 13 goals in a game against the Devils, yet managed to get shutout 11-0 by the Hartford Whalers.

Signs of the times? - In the 83-84 season, Gretzky led the Oilers in Shots with 324, yielding 87 goals. 27% of his shots went in. In 07-08, his best year in terms of goals as a percentage of shots, Ovechkin scored on about 15% of his 446 shots, good for 65 goals.

That 83-84 Oilers team featured four 100 point scorers who combined for 545 points. 2 of the top 5 point scorers in the NHL played for the Oilers that year (Gretzky and Coffey, who went 1, 2 in the points race despite being separated by 79 points). This year, there will probably be only four 100 point scorers in NHL, 2 of which play for the Capitals.

In the 83-84 season, Gretzky was on the ice for 249 of the Oilers goals. With every team this season having played not less than 80 games, only 4 teams have 249 or more goals.

The Oilers 446 goals is more than any 2 of the bottom 7 teams this season have scored so far this year.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Apr 10, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs