FanPost

What Gambling lines tell us about the playoffs

I saw JP linked to PuckProb this morning and they listed the Habs as having a 3.3% chance of winning.  Their model isn't clearly described (as far as I can tell), so I decided to take the Bloomberg lines and come up with conservative estimations for each series.

Note that I'm using the average lines (from Bodog, Bookmakers, 5 dimes, WSEx and Stations) which vary for home/away setups.  Lines fluctuate too, but they give you a ballpark idea for the market priced probabilities.  Also, the juice on Bodog is pretty small (looks to be about 5 points) so I'm ignoring it here.  Feel free to call me a maroon below.

Also, the odds are provided for the trailing team in the remaining three games (Games 6 and 7 are using Games 4 and 5's odds respectively).

Eastern Conference:

MTL - WSH: odds for MTL are +350, +180, +350 = 22% * 36% * 22% = 1.76%

NJD - PHL: complete

BUF - BOS: odds for BUF are -155, +120, -155 = 61% * 45% * 61% = 16.79%

PIT - OTT: odds for OTT are 41% * 25% = 10.2%

 

Things get a bit hairier in the Western Conference, so I'll just list the results:

SJS - COL: odds for SJS are -160, -250 (need to win 1 of 2): 89% prob for SJS, 11% for COL

CHI - NSH: odds for CHI are -300, -150, -300 (need to win 2 of 3): 79% prob for CHI, 21% for NSH

VAN - LAK: odds for VAN are  -185, -125, -185 (need to win 2 of 3): 67% prob for VAN, 33% for LAK

DET - PHO: odds for DET are -130, -225, -130 (the need to win 2 of 3): 66% prob for DET, 34% for PHO


If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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