I saw JP linked to PuckProb this morning and they listed the Habs as having a 3.3% chance of winning. Their model isn't clearly described (as far as I can tell), so I decided to take the Bloomberg lines and come up with conservative estimations for each series.
Note that I'm using the average lines (from Bodog, Bookmakers, 5 dimes, WSEx and Stations) which vary for home/away setups. Lines fluctuate too, but they give you a ballpark idea for the market priced probabilities. Also, the juice on Bodog is pretty small (looks to be about 5 points) so I'm ignoring it here. Feel free to call me a maroon below.
Also, the odds are provided for the trailing team in the remaining three games (Games 6 and 7 are using Games 4 and 5's odds respectively).
MTL - WSH: odds for MTL are +350, +180, +350 = 22% * 36% * 22% = 1.76%
NJD - PHL: complete
BUF - BOS: odds for BUF are -155, +120, -155 = 61% * 45% * 61% = 16.79%
PIT - OTT: odds for OTT are 41% * 25% = 10.2%
Things get a bit hairier in the Western Conference, so I'll just list the results:
SJS - COL: odds for SJS are -160, -250 (need to win 1 of 2): 89% prob for SJS, 11% for COL
CHI - NSH: odds for CHI are -300, -150, -300 (need to win 2 of 3): 79% prob for CHI, 21% for NSH
VAN - LAK: odds for VAN are -185, -125, -185 (need to win 2 of 3): 67% prob for VAN, 33% for LAK
DET - PHO: odds for DET are -130, -225, -130 (the need to win 2 of 3): 66% prob for DET, 34% for PHO
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