Just how far is the East from the West?
by Chris Burton on Mar 9, 2010 4:05 PM EST
39 comments
In yesterday's Game Thread, I snidely remarked that the Capitals' record was inflated because they played in the Eastern conference. This was mostly a joke, but this season has seen the West be typically more highly regarded than the East.
That got me thinking: myth or reality?
If you read the comments at the Rink, you're probably aware I'm not much of a statistician. That said, I thought I'd delve into the question a little further with some basic math...
West vs. East
Total Record: 131-76-22
Points Earned: 282
East vs. West
Total Record: 99-103-32
Points Earned: 230
Key Eastern Stats
Average Goals Per Game: 2.75
Average Goals Against Per Game: 2.80
Key Western Stats
Average Goals Per Game: 2.77
Average Goals Against Per Game: 2.51
Obviously, some very cursory statistics there. What did we learn? The West has owned the East in inter-conference play, and Eastern Conference teams on average are operating at a negative goal differential, but both conferences score at roughly the same rate.
Anyway, I'm not using these statistics to draw a conclusion. This is your launching pad for a discussion- who's better, East or West?
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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We can’t know for sure which conference is better because there was no all-star game this year.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
by jordanDC on Mar 9, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
LOL
I know—it goes so far in helping us figure it out!
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The East has more chumps. I also think the East has four legitimate Stanley Cup contenders to the West’s two (three if I’m feeling generous). It’s difficult to compare primarily because what it means for one conference to be “better” than the other isn’t universally agreed upon.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Mar 9, 2010 4:16 PM EST reply actions
Who are your four legit Cup contenders? Washington, Pittsburgh, maybe New Jersey, and….?
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And my third for the West would be Vancouver
by sixsevenfiftysix on Mar 9, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Of course New Jersey :)
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Mar 12, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Caps, Devils, Pens?
Hawks, Kings, Sharks?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I count the Wings among Cup contenders until they’re eliminated.
I don’t really see anyone other than the Caps or Pens coming out of the East.
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I agree about the Wings. I’d also throw the Canucks in there, but I’m sure somebody would call me a dummy for suggesting it.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Dummy!
BTW, Jordan, no way the Kings can contend. I’d consider arguing Nashville is more of a contender than LA, PHX, or COL.
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Yeah, you’re probably right. I like the Kangs, though.
I think the Preds are just one scorer short. Also, goaltending has seemed a kinda liquid all season.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I wasn’t saying that they were contenders: I’m saying that I’d trust them over the Kings, Avs, or ’Yotes. I still think the Avs are going to fall apart.
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I would beg to differ that the Kings can’t contend.
From what I have seen from them, which is quite alot, they are the darkhorses going into the WC. I can see them dropping any of the top teams if they play well
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Caps and Pens in the East. No one else is a true contender right now. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a team that could surprise, but those 2 are clearly head and shoulders above the rest.
In the West its the Hawks, Sharks, Kings, and Canucks. I’d even mention the Wings now that they seem to be getting physically and mentally healthy.
Now, look at the teams those contenders in both conferences would have to play in the 1st round. No contest. Every WC team will have a tough time in their series. Not so, in my mind, in the East.
To summarize – The West is clearly better this season.
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Meh.
East: Washington, Pittsburgh, Ryan Miller
West: Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver, Kings, Red Wings (if they make it)
I’d be pretty much stunned if the winner wasn’t on that list. And that means the West vastly out-guns the East 5-2, with Ryan Miller being on a Buffalo team that’s just good enough to let him stand on his head and win in 6 or 7 games.
I know everyone is high on the Wings since they all came back from LTIR, but I’m not buying it. They’re still terribly inconsistent. Their big guns are still not stepping up. They can beat Chicago (Thanks, Huet!) one day, and look like complete [donkey poo] the next. Playoffs, yes. Stanley Cup contenders? no.
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When was the last time a true contender was qualified with “if they make it”?
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by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 9, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Pittsburgh last season?
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by red army line on Mar 10, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t recall when they got on firm playoff footing, but I do remember that there wasn’t much doubt they’d make the playoffs by the time March rolled around. Part of that was everyone knowing how good they were, but part of that was the East not being that good. DET hasn’t ripped off big winning streaks to get themselves firmly in the playoffs. As long as they continue to hover at the 8-10 I’m not really convinced, plus they have much stiffer competition than PIT had.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 11, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
For reference, here are the teams with the best odds to win the Cup on Bodog (purely for reference of course, just to show that my claim is reasonable):
Chicago 4/1
Washington 4/1
San Jose 5/1
Pittsburgh 6/1
New Jersey 9/1
Vancouver 11/1
Buffalo 15/1
by sixsevenfiftysix on Mar 9, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Stanley Cup Contenders
What a useful metric you’ve created.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Mar 10, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
You’re obviously joking, but as I clearly stated there’s absolutely no agreed-upon way of comparing conferences. It could be Cup contenders, fewest crap teams, best players, etc. Relax.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Mar 10, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think this season, there’s no question that the West is better overall, despite that fact that y’all have Edmonton. As far as the “Caps are getting fat feasting on a very weak East,” well, we’re kinda used to hearing that, as everyone else in the East says the “Caps are getting fat feasting on a very weak southeast.” Of course, the numbers don’t back up that second statement. The Caps are simply the superior team in the team and beat up on everyone, regardless of division. But, out of curiosity, I looked up the caps numbers against all divisions. I put the percentage of maximum points available in parentheses.
vs. Atlantic 12-3-3 (75%)
vs. Northeast 10-4-3 (68%)
vs. Southeast 14-2-0 (88%)
vs. Central 2-1-2 (60%)
vs. Northwest 3-1-0 (75%)
vs. Pacific 3-2-1 (58%)
not to shabby, I’d say. So, a 63% against the West, which isn’t terrible, and certainly isn’t “They can’t play against the West!” Incidentally, a .630 clip over 66 games would put them at 83 points, which is more than enough to make the playoffs in the West.
I’m sure someone can do a much better job at these numbers, but that’s my math-challenged self’s take on it.
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I think they are about even at the top 2-3 teams in each conference, but the 4-10/11 in the West blows away the counterparts in the East. (And Jordan, I’m not even close to sold on LAK being ready to challenge for a Cup. They need some growing pains first.)
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by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 9, 2010 4:27 PM EST reply actions
But i think you hit it on the head, the top teams are comparable. However, 4-10 are soo bad in the East.
I’ve been looking at the possible draws in the West, and no 1-4 team has a particularly ‘easy’ draw against a 5-8 team. While the the East 5-8 are pretty mediocre relative to 1-4
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By goal differential, the Caps are the class of the league at +74. Chicago and SJS are in the next cluster and VAN trails them by just a bit (recall that VAN is going to play ten of their final fifteen at home) and I’m comfortable putting them in the same cluster. Their differentials are, respectively, +56, +52, +45. Then there’s a huuuuuuuuuuuge dropoff to the next group of teams, LAK, PIT, COL and PHI (PHI is way under-performing their goal differential by the way, I have no desire to play them in the first round. At all.) at +25, +22, +22, +22.
That evidence suggests that after WSH, no one in the East is as good as the top trio in the West and the the next two in the West are roughly as good as the next two in the East if we put any stock in pythagorean stats.
The rest of the SE is worse than anyone in the west by goal-differential, save EDM and CLS (who are both absolutely horrific). The bottom of the standings and goal-differential reads like a who’s who of suck in the East with a little bit of West flavoring thrown in just for giggles.
Conclusion: At the top of the heap, the East and West are sort of comparable — Washington can hang with anyone and on a given night or even a given series, PIT and PHI are a major threat. Out West, you have three very serious contenders and then two who are comparable to PIT and PHI by differential. Then through the middle of the conferences, it’s really not that close. The West is better depth-wise, even if it’s close to a wash at the top.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 9, 2010 7:14 PM EST reply actions
The Most Telling Stat of all...
Detroit is currently 9th in the West with 74 points. In the East, 74 points is a tie for 6th (Although Philly has the tie breaker right now.). Dallas is in 10th with 70 points. In the East they’d be tied for 8th with Boston (the teams have identical records).
The reason it takes more points for Western teams to make the playoffs is because more of those teams are getting points from teams in the East. The West is cleary a stronger conference, top to bottom.
That said, conferences don’t win the Cup, teams do. The teams with a legitimate shot at Stanley this year are (in order within each conference):
East: Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Buffalo
West: Vancouver, San Jose, Chicago, Detroit if they make it in (I think they will…)
Right now, if someone asked me what the final would be, I’d say I don’t know, but if they threatend me with making me listen to Jonas Brothers music, I would say it should be Washington vs. Vancouver….
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Mar 10, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
After seeing Luongo at the Olympics I’d put them at the bottom of those four.
Going back to 2007, Ottawa had a pretty easy time of it within the East, but failed in the SCF partly because Anaheim was more tested and ready. I hope the same deal isn’t at work here.
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by red army line on Mar 10, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
The West is better, obviously
But does it really matter? WSH, PIT, SJ, CHI or VAN (ugh) are winning the Cup and any series between those teams would be pretty close to toss up.
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The West is better, and have been for some time
I think the culprit is that a lot of the East Coast teams (think Boston and Philadelphia) put too much of an emphasis on being a “tough” team as part of their organizational philosophy. In other words, they’re built like they’re trying to win the Cup in the early 1970s, which, not coincidentally, is the last time either of those two teams won the Cup. When you look at the West, you see teams like Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Vancouver – teams that are built on putting the puck in the net, and not chipping & checking. And the secondary teams in that conference – Phoenix and Colorado, for example, have learned from their example.
The Penguins and Capitals are the two teams in the East that are built more like a Western Conference Power than any of the other conferences, and lookie, they’re by far the best teams in the East. Maybe over the next few years, you’ll see a shift in organizational philosophy in the Eastern franchises. I think the Caps next opponent, Tampa Bay, could be a Cup challenger in the next few years if they build a team around Stamkos that can score goals.
Now that all said, the teams coming out of the East have won 4 out of the last 6 Stanley Cups, so anyone who suggests that whichever team comes out of the East will get killed by virtue of them coming out of an inferior conference hasn’t been paying much attention recently.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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