Clinching Scenarios

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 9, 2010 10:00 AM EST

Well, it's getting to be that time again, and I figured I'd do some math (that's what my degree is in...)

To win the Southeast and make the playoffs, the Capitals need to gain 6 points on the Thrashers. Not that Atlanta is in 9th (they're 10th) but by clinching the division title, the Caps earn a post season berth. It is entirely possible that the Caps may take the ice on Friday with the division championship already won. The Thrash play tonight, Thursday and Friday (busy schedule!) and a loss in any of those games means that the Caps clinch the division with a sweep of the remaining homestand (which includes two very winable games...)

To clinch the top seed in the East, the Caps need to gain 20 points on the Penguins. The Pens max is 19 more than the Caps have now, but if they were to attain that and the Caps falter, the Pens would have the tie breaker as right now the Pens have only 4 fewer wins than the Caps. The 13 point margin the Caps have comes with 5 OT/SO loss points (I don't like charity points, but I'll take them, I'm not proud). It is very possible the Caps could clinch the East's top seed this month. I don't think that they win out in the remaining 10 games this month, but I don't think the Pens will go undefeated either (esp. since one of the games is the Caps/Pens battle on the 24th at VC).

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Rec rolled.

I can’t remember the last time the Caps were close to clinching with so much of the season remaining.

"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."

If you're tired and want to take a nap, check out my graduate research blog! https://digitalcommons.georgetown.edu/blogs/jmc333/

by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 9, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions

Easy answer: Never. This is as early as they’ve ever been in a position to clinch a division title. In 1986 they probably had a playoff berth clinched this early, but they didn’t win the division that year (Philly did). The Caps were the 3rd best team in the regular season that year, but were upset in the playoffs (as were Philly, Edmonton, Boston, etc. all the top teams). Montreal went on to win the Cup with some unknown rooke in goal… Patrick Roy.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 9, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

I need to see the tie-breaker rules again...

OK, based on this, yes, the Penguins would have the tie-breaker…

1) The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).

2) The greater number of games won.

3) The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.

4) The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

I need a snappy signature...

by IRockTheRed on Mar 9, 2010 10:36 AM EST reply actions

As far as the Presidents' Trophy is concerned...

We have 97 points, with a possible maximum of 129.

The Sharks have 93 points, with a possible maximum of 127… so this is going to go RIGHT down to the wire…

The Blackhawks have 91 points, with a possible maximum of 125…

The Penguins (ew!) have 84 points, with a possible maximum of 116…

The Coyotes have 83 points, with a possible maximum of 115…

I’m not going to do the math on every team… but still. Interesting rest of the season here…

I need a snappy signature...

by IRockTheRed on Mar 9, 2010 10:42 AM EST reply actions

Barring any really strange issues, the President’s trophy will be settled with Washington, Chicago and San Jose…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 9, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Update After March 9

Well, both Atlanta and Tampa Bay lose tonight, Atlanta to Nashville and Tampa to Montreal. So now the Caps need to gain 4 points on Atlanta and Three on Tampa to clinch the division. For a few minutes, after Atlanta lost, the Lightning became the team that the Caps had to gain on as they had a game in hand on Atlanta… that’s gone now.

Currently Atlanta has 66 points with 34 available (max 100), Tampa has 65 points with 34 available (max 99), and the Caps have 97.

Pittsburgh doesn’t play until Thursday.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 9, 2010 10:11 PM EST reply actions

With a win against Carolina tonight, and losses by either Montreal or Atlanta on Thursday and a playoff spot is locked up (I think).

Caps would have 99 points (45 wins) with a win.

Montreal and Atlanta could each earn up to 100 points if the win every game for the rest of the season.

The Rangers and Tampa could each earn 99 points.

A win gives us the first tiebreaker over the bolts (total wins) since we would have 45, and the best they could do is 44.

The Rangers would put up 45 wins, but we have them in the next tie-breaker (head-to-head points).

An Atlanta OTL on Thursday would assure them no more than 99 points, 45 wins, but we have the head-to head.

A Montreal loss would assure them no more than 98 points, however, a Montreal OTL keeps them alive, since they would have us in the tie breakers if we both put up 99 points.

So a Caps win vs. the Canes, plus any Atlanta loss, OR a Montreal regulation loss Thursday would lock up a playoff spot on March 11th.

Of course, Atlanta and Montreal play the two worst teams in the West on Thursday, so we may have to wait for Friday after all.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 10, 2010 1:08 AM EST reply actions

That works. Then again I think the Caps focus should be to get the top seed in the East. They have a nice lead on Pittsburgh, and the best way to keep that is to win games…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 10, 2010 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

I’m okay with waiting for Friday, as it’d be fun to have them celebrate in front of the home crowd.

Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters

by wickedwitch on Mar 10, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

Update After March 10...

The Caps are now 2 points away from clinching the division title having gotten to 99 points. Atlanta’s maximum is 100. With a loss by the Thrash tomorrow the Caps clinch the Southeast.

The Caps are now 17 points from clinching the East top seed….

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Mar 10, 2010 11:36 PM EST reply actions

If you dig a bit deeper, you’ll find the Caps currently need only 1 point to win the division. The Caps can’t lose the tiebreakers against the Thrash, so they only need to tie the Thrashers (who can earn a maximum of 100 points) to guarantee the top seed in the SE Division. Thus, a Thrashers loss or OT loss tomorrow would secure the division for the Caps.

Interestingly, even without the automatic top 3 seed for winning their division, a win Friday would guarantee no worse than a 7 seed for the Caps. Only 6 other teams in the East have enough games left to amass 101 points.

The Caps are indeed 17 points from clinching the top spot in the East, but they must earn 2 of those points (either one win, or two OT losses) against the Pens to ensure 17 points will secure the top spot. If the Caps and Pens are tied in points at the end of the season, and the Pens win both remaining games against the Caps in regulation, the Caps would lose the tiebreaker (points earned in games against each other), since the Pens picked up a point in the OT loss on Super Bowl Sunday.

The President’s Trophy race is so tight between the Caps and Sharks, the Caps can’t afford more than 1 OT loss in their remaining 15 games to clinch. Of course, any San Jose losses could open up some room here, as could a Caps win vs. Chicago on Sunday.

Cliff Notes: Cheer for the Thrashers tomorrow. Winning the division would be much sweeter than not losing it.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 11, 2010 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

The first tiebreaker isn’t points earned in games against each other. It’s wins.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Mar 11, 2010 1:17 AM EST up reply actions

You’re right. In any scenario we would need 18 points. NJ and Pitt would both have more wins in nearly any scenario that could generate a tie for total points.

8 wins may be enough to guarantee 2nd place… I think… Since NJ and Pitt play each other twice more. If the Pens were to win out, our 8 wins would give us 115 points, NJ could have no more than 113 (since NJ could earn 2 OT losses at best if Pitt won out). Buffalo could (at best) be tied with us at 115, with an identical record, but we win the tiebreaker there.

If NJ wins out, Pitt can manage no more than 114 points, we would lose the tiebreaker at 115 to NJ, and Buffalo could still have 115, but would still lose the tiebreaker to the Caps and the Devils.

And, of course, one win guarantees the 3rd seed.

My head hurts.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 11, 2010 2:59 AM EST up reply actions

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Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Florida Litter Box Cats	54	26	17	11	63
Washington Japers' Rink	54	28	21	5	61
Winnipeg Arctic Ice Hockey	57	26	25	6	58
Tampa Bay Raw Charge	54	24	24	6	54
Carolina Canes Country	56	20	25	11	51