Where Carlson and Alzner stack up
by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 9:51 AM EST
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PrintJohn Carlson and Karl Alzner get a lot of love around here, and rightfully so. But where do they stack up against other young defensemen around the league? I'm sure I missed some defensemen, so feel free to tell me who to add in the comments. I wanted to stick to those who are still "prospects" or still very young.
The stats I looked at are plus/minus per 60 minutes differential, goals-versus-threshold, and Corsi. Stats via Behind The Net.
For what they are worth, I added the stats from the players' "rookie seasons." In some cases, a player would have 5-10 games one season, then more the next, so I would then select the next season. But if the player played 20 games or more in a season prior to this one, then I used the first one of those seasons. This was in order to get a favorable sample size with which to compare the player to Alzner and Carlson. Of course, with so few games played, it's not really an accurate reflection of which defenseman is in fact better, but I hoped to recreate similar conditions--traveling between AHL and NHL, inconsistent pairings, easy minutes, etc.
2006-2007 "rookies"--Alexander Edler (no data available from BtN, so his "rookie" numbers are from 2007-2008)
2007-2008 "rookies"--Tobias Enstrom, Jack Johnson, Erik Johnson, Kris Letang, Anton Stralman, Keith Yandle, Marc Staal (no Corsi available)
2008-2009 "rookies"--Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Alex Goligoski
2009-2010 "rookies"--Alex Pietrangelo, John Carlson, Tyler Myers, Michael Del Zotto, Cody Franson, Jason Demers, Victor Hedman
Rookie numbers for non 09-10 rookies in parentheses and italics.
GVT Rankings
- Drew Doughty 15.0
- Tobias Enstrom 9.4
- Tyler Myers 8.8
- Keith Yandle 8.7
- Marc Staal 8.0
- Erik Johnson 6.5
- Alex Goligoski 6.5
- Cody Franson 6.0
- Kris Letang 5.9
- Jason Demers 5.5
- Jack Johnson 5.4
- Alexander Edler 5.2
- Anton Stralman 5.0
- Victor Hedman 3.9
- Luke Schenn 2.8
- Michael Del Zotto 2.7
- Zach Bogosian 2.7
- John Carlson 0.6
- Karl Alzner -0.1
- Alex Pietrangelo -0.8
It isn't the nicest thing to see that the Caps could, theoretically, get similar or better contribution from a replacement than from Alzner or Carlson, but small sample size, changing pairings, and changing leagues even probably play into this.
+/- ON/60 Rankings
- John Carlson 3.25
- Cody Franson 1.58
- Jason Demers 1.32
- Keith Yandle 0.94 (-1.29)
- Drew Doughty 0.88 (-0.82)
- Tobias Enstrom 0.55 (-0.20)
- Kris Letang 0.40 (0.13)
- Erik Johnson 0.24 (-0.13)
- Marc Staal 0.21 (even)
- Tyler Myers 0.11
- Alex Goligoski 0.08 (0.78)
- Alexander Edler 0.00 (-0.37)
- Victor Hedman -0.06
- Luke Schenn -0.15 (-0.44)
- Karl Alzner -0.60 (even)
- Zach Bogosian -0.63 (0.79)
- Anton Stralman -0.80 (-0.77)
- Michael Del Zotto -0.80
- Jack Johnson -0.87 (-0.94)
- Alex Pietrangelo -4.67
Corsi Rating (per 60) Rankings
- Keith Yandle 11.68
- Cody Franson 11.56
- John Carlson 10.21
- Kris Letang 8.28
- Erik Johnson 5.60
- Drew Doughty 5.35
- Alexander Edler 4.24
- Anton Stralman 4.09
- Alex Goligoski 3.98
- Luke Schenn 1.75
- Michael Del Zotto 1.47
- Jason Demers -0.77
- Alex Pietrangelo -1.56
- Victor Hedman -2.33
- Karl Alzner -2.81
- Jack Johnson -3.18
- Tobias Enstrom -3.19
- Tyler Myers -3.27
- Zach Bogosian -4.40
- Marc Staal -5.41
QualComp Rankings
- Marc Staal 0.163 (0.011)
- Tyler Myers 0.079
- Drew Doughty 0.037 (0.036)
- Zach Bogosian 0.032 (0.037)
- Victor Hedman 0.030
- Kris Letang 0.024 (-0.041)
- Tobias Enstrom 0.005 (0.075)
- Anton Stralman -0.008 (-0.045)
- John Carlson -0.011
- Alexander Edler -0.012 (-0.015)
- Erik Johnson -0.025 (-0.069)
- Alex Goligoski -0.025 (-0.022)
- Jack Johnson -0.035 (0.085)
- Karl Alzner -0.046 (0.002)
- Luke Schenn -0.055 (0.026)
- Keith Yandle -0.073 (-0.125)
- Jason Demers -0.086
- Michael Del Zotto -0.088
- Alex Pietrangelo -0.092
- Cody Franson -0.097
QualTeam Rankings
- Jack Johnson 0.148 (-0.101)
- Tobias Enstrom 0.136 (0.127)
- Tyler Myers 0.116
- Anton Stralman 0.111 (-0.174)
- Alexander Edler 0.109 (0.003)
- Victor Hedman 0.094
- Drew Doughty 0.092 (-0.130)
- Jason Demers 0.087
- Kris Letang 0.087 (-0.032)
- Marc Staal 0.009 (-0.041) (interesting: Jordan has a higher QualTeam than Eric)
- Karl Alzner 0.008 (-0.130)
- Alex Goligoski -0.004 (0.029)
- Zach Bogosian -0.014 (0.100)
- Alex Pietrangelo -.015
- Keith Yandle -0.027 (-0.104)
- Cody Franson -0.032
- Luke Schenn -0.074 (0.040)
- Michael Del Zotto -0.113
- John Carlson -.120
- Erik Johnson -0.160 (-0.069)
Notice Kris Letang and Karl Alzner's respective QualTeams this season. Weird how things work out...
While Carlson and Alzner are very good, Carlson seems to be helped by relatively easier minutes. Considering sample size though, both need more games under their belts to really compare to most of the others (Carlson still hasn't played three games' worth of minutes in the NHL). Their GVTs make them only average or marginally better than average. Not that good. marginally better than replacements, if at all, so far. And with the glut of defensemen Bruce Boudreau has to juggle, it's unlikely we'll see some solid pairings formed. It is promising though that--in small sample size, keep in mind--they compare favorably to some of the other young defensemen, though the others play more important roles on their respective teams for the most part.
Tyler Myers and Keith Yandle are very good, but not as good as Drew Doughty, who, to quote Fehr and Balanced, "is a freaking stud."
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Props for the effort, but I don’t think you can take that much from these statistics. Especially for Carlson.
Games played:
1 Alexander Edler 235
2 Tobias Enstrom 226
3 Marc Staal 226
4 Kris Letang 199
5 Keith Yandle 184
6 Jack Johnson 181
7 Drew Doughty 144
8 Anton Stralman 144
9 Erik Johnson 131
10 Luke Schenn 130
11 Zach Bogosian 109
12 Alex Goligoski 100
13 Tyler Myers 63
14 Michael Del Zotto 62
15 Victor Hedman 60
16 Karl Alzner 51
17 Jason Demers 44
18 Cody Franson 43
19 Alex Pietrangelo 17
20 John Carlson 9
GVT isn’t a rate statistic, so the fact that most of the guys in the list have played all season while Alzner has played 20 and Carlson has played 9 is a big deal.
Also, Alzner has been pretty shaky this year, and I think everyone would admit that, but he’s also been given very sporadic minutes with no sustained time to get adjusted. Last year he had a CORSION of 13.88, which would have put him at #1 on this list.
Until we these guys get adjusted to full-time NHL work, like most of the better players in the list have, we really won’t know how they compare.
by psuscott1 on Mar 6, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Additional to concerns about small sample size, Carlson hasn’t exactly been playing against elite competition over his nine game NHL career thus far.
Teams by G/G ranking and TOI for the game
PIT (5) (17:43)
PHI (7) (15:51)
OTT (15) (11:33)
BUF (16) (16:15)
STL (17) (13:35)
TBL (20) (14:46)
TOR (21) (14:32, 13:33)
MTL (25) (17:24)
Mean offensive rank of teams John’s played with, counting the Leafs twice? 16.33, so a bit under the average offensive rank. Somewhere between BUF and STL in offensive output.
These teams aren’t exactly threatening offensively, excepting the Pens and the Flyers and even then, Carlson wasn’t often matched up with their big guns.
Now to his credit, Carlson’s only been a minus in one game: the Leafs SO victory back on November 21st. However, he’s been playing fairly week competition in limited ice time against non-imposing offensive teams. I think he’s an elite prospect, but I’m pretty certain that he’s not going to keep this pace up. In fact, if he stays up he’ll be hitting the rookie wall right about at the end of the second round of the playoffs, not where you want a guy to falter badly.
With regard to Alzner: he’s taken a pretty dramatic step back this season. Why, I can’t tell you, but my impression is that he’s out-thinking himself. Watching in Hershey, he’d start to do something, change his mind and decide to go do something else after he’d already begun the first action. In the A, no one was fast enough to challenge him or put enough pressure on to make him pay. Different story in the NHL — everyone is challenging him for time and space. With as far as he’s regressed though, he’s still playing against better competition and for more minutes than John Erskine.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 6, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Rookie wall? I understand the concept, but how did you estimate that? Just a guess, or is there something about playing x months and suddenly slumping?
FWIW, I tried to match other small sample sizes to capture at least other of these factors. Very imperfect, but I would think at least a few of these guys then become comparables.
CИДHИЙ KPOCБИЙ: АЛEKCAHДP OBEЧKИH, OH CEЙЧAC TBOЙ OTEЦ
by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on the rookie, really, but normally between 35-40 games into the season you see production fall off a cliff as they get ground down in the attrition of an 82 game season. They play a lot of games in Junior, but they’re often physically superior to their opponents there and this is emphatically not the case while in the NHL. Prime example this year: John Tavares. He came out on pace for 70 points and 30ish goals on the year. JT has one goal in calendar ’10 and his pace has dropped substantially as a result.
It happened to Alzner last season and it happens to most rookies during their first seasons. NHL players are a lot bigger and a lot stronger than most of the players making their premieres and that shows up over the course of the season.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 6, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Just a thought
According to your estimate, JC will hit the wall right around the time Juice should be available to play. That works out well.
CИДHИЙ KPOCБИЙ: АЛEKCAHДP OBEЧKИH, OH CEЙЧAC TBOЙ ПAПA
by red army line on Mar 7, 2010 5:28 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with most of this but I want to throw in two observations. First, the entire NYI team fell off at the same time as Tavares, so it’s not clear that it’s a simple rookie wall situation. Molson was playing way above his head for the beginning of the year and I think he came back to earth. Second, Carlson is so strong and physically mature already that I think he’s less likely to hit the rookie wall. He skated an absolute ton of minutes for London last year (about ~30 a night) and still had enough in the tank to get a regular spot for HER during the Calder Cup run, and by all accounts impressed the coaches. I’m hopeful that he can keep his play up, especially since he’s skating significantly fewer minutes than he’s used to the last couple years.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
It’s not clear that it’s a total rookie wall situation, but all the conditions are there. It’s not like Tavares is a physical specimen the same way that Carlson looks like, plus he’s even younger. He was right at the threshold for where guys normally hit it and like I said, dude has one goal in calendar ‘10. That’s like seven weeks worth of games — even for a team that’s been floundering as badly as the Isles have been, I’d expect at least a couple of goals from Tavares.
Carlson skated a mess of minutes last season, but he was one of the biggest, strongest and fastest guys in the league. There just weren’t that many guys in the OHL that could outwork him in a puck battle, or skate with him, et cetera. Big difference in the difficulty of the minutes played there, even if there are a lot fewer. That said, keeping his minutes to ~17ish would probably help avoid hitting that wall and I’m totally agreed in the hope that he keeps his level of play up. I’m just not expecting him to.
It’s not like Bogo or Doughty were immature players when they hit the NHL, but they both definitely hit the wall during their rookie seasons. I just hope it was because they were playing more and tougher minutes, not because it’s a guarantee thing, but with the playoffs, I’m not confident of that.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 9, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Doughty was fat when he was going into the draft. He lost a ton of weight before the draft and I’m sure he didn’t replace it with a lot of muscle. I’m not shocked at all that he hit a wall, he was much smaller than Carlson.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
FWIW, I tried to match other small sample sizes to capture at least other of these factors. Very imperfect, but I would think at least a few of these guys then become comparables.
I think some of them probably are comparables…but I’m not sure which ones, heh. JC74’s rate stats are outstanding, but again, small sample size, hasn’t hit the rookie wall yet. The Alzner numbers are worrisome, frankly. The kid needs a good solid straightening out, but I’m not sure who can give him one.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 6, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously I’m one of the biggest Alzner supporters around, so take it with a grain of salt. But I don’t think he’s regressed all that much this year. He may not have advanced as much as we hoped/expected, but I don’t really think he’s worse than he was last year (compared to where he ended up, not his hot, adrenaline-fueled start). I think physical strength is his biggest problem. Simply playing solid positioning and being smarter than everyone isn’t working anymore. He dominated the WHL like that because he was so much better, but now he is facing men and I don’t see him winning the puck battles he needs to win. He needs to hit the gym and come out with confidence and purpose in training camp next fall.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
I think physical strength is his biggest problem.
Totally is, when he’s not in a body-on-body battles and not second guessing himself, he skates very well and makes very good decisions with the puck. Get him on the boards however, and the other team is probably coming out with the puck. Maybe he can train with Carlson over the summer, or something.
One thing you have to say for the NTDP, it cranks out players who’re very fast and very strong for their ages. I think Carlson was a beneficiary there of a lot of very good off-ice work that Alzner didn’t have access to.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 9, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Carlson is not a NTDP product or he would have played in 2 WJC teams. He played in the AJHL, then the USHL, then the OHL, then the AHL. I’m sure Alzner knows he needs to beef up and I’m confident he’ll go back to Calgary and work his ass off to make it happen so he’s ready for next year.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Huh, I thought he was. Even luckier for us, then.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 9, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
Forgot to say, this is an impressive amount of work. Unless you’ve found a way to grab these stats in an ordered way for all the players, this stuff takes a lot of time. Kudos for the leg work, along with the rec.
Something else to add — Alzner has even worse QualComp than JC74 and plays with better teammates in QualTeam. That said, he plays 1:34 a night on the PK over the course of his 21 games so far, which is more time per game than Carlson’s accumulated over his entire season. Just another interesting tidbit.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 6, 2010 3:47 PM EST reply actions
Sure makes me appreciate all the work the writers here put it.
Wow, weird. I wonder how JC can play the PK, never seen him do it.
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by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I <3 Cody Franson
#thatisall
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Great work, but I also second the concern about sample sizes. I’d also point out that most of those D are a year or two ahead of these guys so they have a lot more experience and physical/mental maturity right now.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 8:45 AM EST)
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