Capital Ups and Downs - Graphical Analysis UPDATED!
by Addison H. on Mar 22, 2010 9:45 PM EDT
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PrintSo there was talk today about counting up all the "Ups and Downs" so far. Elliotte did a good job adding up the numbers and getting to the basics. What I have done is take this a step further, as well as provide two sets of graphical representations of the "Ups and Downs." The first set is a straight count of "ups" or "downs."
Methodology: go through all 22 "Ups and Downs" posts and count; purple hearts were +1 and yellow circles and "trending Sasha" were 0. I left out the callups at F and Michael Nylander, since they are fairly irrelevant. I left in Clark for sentimental value. Tyler Sloan was counted as a D for simplicity.
So without further ado, here we go. Im going to try and provide a little analysis, but please feel free to add to this.
Goalies: Jose Theodore has been positive a lot more than negative; Michal Neuvirth has been generally more positive; Semyon Varlamov has been mostly neutral
Defensemen: John Carlson has been a nice surprise and is performing well above expectations; Alzner, however, has not. Erskine and Mike Green are both very streaky (maybe high-risk high-reward might be a better term here). Sloan is one of only two players to have more downs than ups.
Forwards: Fowards are all generally positive. I was surprised to see Nicklas Backstrom with as many downs as he does, considering the season he is having, but that might also be a product of high expectations. Belanger has failed to live up to expecations (albeit within a short sample size). Matt Bradley, Tomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, and David Steckel have all been performing way above expectations.
The next thing I did was keep a cumulative score of each player throughout the season. Starting with the first "Ups and Downs" I either added or subtracted a point or kept the score the same. What this does is identify any trends in performance. Looking at the goalie cumulative performance, it is clear that Jose has really stepped up his performance over the last nine weeks, making the case for himself at the #1 goalie position
Defensemen: The D-Corps has been fairly consistent. After a rough start, Poti had a nice little run weeks 13 to 19 but has since leveled off. T-Slo has been consistently on the downturn (sorry, Ovechwin).
Forwards: Bradley started the season slow, but had a nice middle section to bring up his cumulative rating, although he has since leveled off. Morrison started off hot, but has since come crashing down (something of which we are all well aware). Steckel and Laich are both having nifty little late season surges. Sasha, is, well, trending Sasha, generally performing below expectations, but also showing flashes of brilliance.
UPDATE: I broke out the forwards by postion, so it should make it easier to read. I also added mean value lines to the LW and RW cumulative rating graphs for quick reference on how they all stack up.
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Nice job!
Только игра! Почему надо быть гневаться?
WARNING: Irrrational defender of Semyon Varlamov
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It seems that over time they mostly balance out, like most of the D-men are about even. The line graphs are especially interesting… enjoy Bradley and Semin’s especially.
But this is counting the ups and downs of the weekly feature, right? Isn’t that pretty subjective?
Would be nice to split up the F chart, definitely.
Yeah it’s counting JP’s weekly Ups & Downs ratings, which judges the players based on expectations of how they did the past week. So it’s totally subjective, but the whole point of running the numbers on it was to see how players were doing based on expectations. Just another way to try and rate how a player is doing so far.
And you’ve got my vote for separating out the forwards graph by position.
Sweeeeeeet
But where’s the graphical representation of “trending Sasha?”
J/K. Good stuff.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I understand what your graph is trying to show, but it seems to me that if a player, such as Semin, starts off as he did with a dash then goes negative, then you end up on the negative side of the graph from the get-go, and even though he had numerous positive weeks since the start of the season, he has a steeper hill to climb.
It seems that when starting the graph, a player is at 0 if they had a dash, but later they only get flatlined or a dash — that does not seem right. It seems it should go back to 0 (which meant dash), otherwise 0 has just become the line between positive and negative, but started being the dash. It was my impression that the weekly ratings are relative to our expectations, not to the prior week. The ever higher or lower spikes give the impression that if one week was bad, the next was worse (or if one week was good, the next was better).
If you started your graphing for Laich at about week 10, but then he had the ups from earlier, his may not look so good. Similarly, for Semin, if his graph started with his weeks around 14 then factored in the earlier downs, it might look different. Your comment above makes it sound like Semin only had one up-arrow week, and that’s not the case. Just an observation.
Whatever it is, I can’t get it to open — just a box with a red x which will not respond to show picture!
See it now — thanks! I think it looks more representative in terms of weeks on either side of the dash line. Not trying to make more work for you, but it would be interesting seeing all of them that way. Again, thank you for your response! I appreciate your time and effort to take this on.
So what youre really more interested in is the integral – or the net +/- rating. I see where you are coming from. I dont think I will do every player this way, but if there are a few you’d like to see, let me know, and I will do 4 or 5 for you.
My thinking in the cumulative ratings was that since they are subjective, every time a player has a bad week, perhaps our expectations go down a little bit. Either way, I think all these numbers are interesting. Glad you enjoyed them as well.
#NeedsMoreBradley
Snark or real? A down week for Semin is probably a better week than an up week for Laing. Just sayin’.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 29, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 1:00 PM EST)
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