Is the President's Trophy a Jinx?

by b.orr4 on Mar 22, 2010 1:46 PM EDT

You hear it all the time. Don't win the President's Trophy, it's the kiss of death. And to support their argument, the critics point to the San Jose Sharks who finished first overall last year and then lost in the first round. But is the President’s Trophy really something to be avoided?

On the face of it, the numbers aren't compelling. Out of the 23 seasons since the President's Trophy was introduced, the first place team has gone on to win the Cup just seven times or 30%. From the glass is half-empty perspective that means 70% of the time the Stanley Cup champ has been the team that didn’t finish first. Hardly a ringing endorsement for winning the trophy. But when you break it down further, it becomes clear that coming in first overall gives a team the best chance for hoisting the Cup at the end of the season. As you can see in the table, the first place finisher over the last 23 seasons has won the Cup 30.4% of the time. The next grouping, fourth place, has won it only 17.4% of the time. All the other positions lag far behind. The bottom line? Finish first. Don’t run the team into the ground doing it, but don’t shy away from it either. It gives you by far the best chance of winning the Cup. In any case, the Caps are all but assured of winning the East. Winning the President’s Trophy just guarantees that if there’s a seventh game in the Finals, it will be played at Verizon and who doesn’t want that. Plus, the team gets a nice, shiny trophy to put on display.

FINAL STANDINGS PLACE	# OF CUP WINS/PERCENTAGE
FIRST	7/30.4%
SECOND	2/8.7%
THIRD	2/8.7%
FOURTH	4/17.4%
FIFTH	2/8.7%
SIXTH	2/8.7%
SEVENTH	2/8.7%
EIGHTH	1/4.3%
NINTH	1/4.3%

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Comments

Who was the 9th place team that won the Cup?

by katzistan on Mar 22, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

The 1994-95 NJ Devils. It was the strike-shortened season.

by b.orr4 on Mar 22, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

1995: Devils win Stanley Cup with trap; make hockey boring for the next 10 years.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 22, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i still don’t understand how a 9th place team makes the playoffs, strike shortened season or not.

by 202-206 on Mar 23, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Because they finished 9th place in the league, not in their conference.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by Carl Putnam on Mar 23, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

9th place overall

As in there are 16 teams that get into the playoffs, and the Devils that year had the 9th best record out of all of them. They were the 5th seed in the East.

by kseandoyle on Mar 23, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I think a big part of the threat of winning the President’s trophy is facing a hot 8th seed in the playoffs. I suspect the 8th seeds that win their way into the playoffs (the Thrashers could be that team this year, the Rangers could too) pose a greater threat to a 1 seed, because they’ve essentially been playing playoff hockey for a couple weeks before they get to the playoffs. Most 5, 6 and 7 seeds have been comfortably in for at least a game or two, and probably aren’t quite as sharp in the first couple games of the playoffs. If an 8 seed can steal game 1 or 2 on the road, and win their 2 at home, they’re well on their way to a playoff victory.

That’s basically what happened to the sharks… Anaheim win 2 in SJ, split when they went back to Ahaheim, and put SJ in a position where they needed to win 3 to take the series. Momentum can be powerful.

In that regard, our schedule is somewhat favorable towards the end of the season. 3 of our last 4 games, and 5 of our last 8, figure to be against bubble teams, so we should see teams playing playoff type hockey. Those should be a good tune up for the post-season.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 22, 2010 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Sharks seem to collapse at the end of the season, look at them now…

Suspend Colin Campbell!

by snowburnt on Mar 22, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s all about memories.
Last time they had president’s trophy and lost. This year western conference winner most probably will enjoy Detroit in first round. I guess, they have some demons with red wings to exorcize.

Perfer et obdura; dolor hic tibi proderit olim.

by what the puck on Mar 22, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Man, I would love to see the Thrash grab the 8 seed. We need to build up some SE playoff rivalries…have to start somewhere.

by RedLife19 on Mar 22, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

The Caps could make or break the Thrashers. If the Thrashers win on April 1st against the Caps, the Caps could be in a position to pick their own opponent for Round 1 by winning or losing to Boston April 5th and 11th…

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 22, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

gotta wonder if the NHL is now a little nervous about scheduling the Bruins in DC twice in April.

by RedBirdie on Mar 22, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

You gotta wonder if the Sharks are honestly losing to the Oilers, or if they’re losing to avoid having to play the 8th seed…

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 22, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s the premise in What We Learned…any way you cut it, I think the 8th seed is pretty strong. Maybe the best is to finish 3rd and draw Colorado (my guess for 6th), though Phoenix is making SJS have to take a high seed or drop to 4th.

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself

by red army line on Mar 22, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I dunno how I’d feel about it as a sharks fan… Ultimately, you want them to win the cup right? The President’s trophy is nice, but if you lose in the first round its a hollow victory. If winning the cup is easier to accomplish from a 4 seed, maybe that’s the way to go, but I’d be pissed if I had tickets to see them play, and it was possible they were intentionally playing at less than 100%.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 22, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

The Sharks will probably work their way into a 2 seed just in time for the Wings to move into the 7 spot.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Mar 22, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

That has been the case twice in the last four years, but overall only four Presidents’ Trophy winners have lost in the first round. I think 30% is actually a pretty outstanding chance – it’s simply very hard to win all four rounds.

by grapejoos on Mar 22, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Where’s the other President’s trophy mythbuster fanpost? I liked that one too.

“It starts in the regular season. You can’t just turn a switch on once the playoffs start and expect to play well. You have to play well going into the playoffs.” —Lidstrom, Spring 2008

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by turnituptoeleven on Mar 22, 2010 6:51 PM EDT reply actions

I hear a strong case to fear the hot #8 team that plays it’s way into the playoffs like the Thrashers, but what about a #8 that’s falling down, barely staying in? Philly’s lost its goalie(s) and now Carter, and they’ve still got games against the Pens, Devils, Detroit as well as the aforementioned Thrashers. Atl is only 4 points behind Philly, who’s currently in 6th place. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Caps’ first round opponents are the boys from Broad Street, who are in no shape to counter our offensive attack.

"It hit me on the pants. I had protection. It felt good. Why? I wanted to win."

by bagace on Mar 22, 2010 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

That was kind of the point… In the West, the 1 seed looks to be playing a team who wins its way into the playoffs… the Caps figure to face a team who merely don’t lose their playoff spot, or a team that played mediocre enough to pass a team that lost their spot.

Montreal is the only bubble team who’s looked particularly threatening in their last 10. The Flyers haven’t looked good, the Rangers have looked bad, and the Senators have looked horrendous. Florida and Carolina have a lot of ground to make up if they’re going to make it in at this point. Boston has been hit and miss, and Atlanta has looked like… well, Atlanta.

I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.

by iwearstripes on Mar 22, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Last year Montreal was a falling 8th place team. Then again, 2 years ago, the Caps were uber hot at the end of the year and squeaked into the playoffs but had nothing left once the playoffs started. Granted they weren’t technically the 8th seed but the third seed since they won their division but still……

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Mar 22, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I want to know...

What percentage of President’s Trophy winners who make it to the Finals win the Stanley Cup? That’s important, because winning the President’s Trophy only really matters once you’re in the Stanley Cup Finals and, no matter who you’re opponent is, you’re going to have home-ice advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if very few President’s Cup winners have actually been defeated in the Stanley Cup finals. If you were good enough to dominate the regular season and win 3 playoff series, you probably aren’t going to be stopped in the Finals.

by kseandoyle on Mar 23, 2010 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

If you’re still interested, here’s your answer. Nine teams that won the President’s Cup made it to the Final. Two lost. That means that 77% of the President’s Cup winners that make it to the Finals win the Cup. Also, five more teams lost in the Conference Finals. So, overall, 14 teams that won the President’s Cup made it to at least the Conference Finals. In percentages, 60% of the teams that won the President’s Cup make it to at least the Conference Finals. So the odds would say the Caps have some extended playoff time ahead of them.

by b.orr4 on Mar 23, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Good to know

And it makes sense, too. If a President’s Trophy winner is going to be beaten, it’s going to be in the early stages. The way they’ll get beaten is that some previously hidden flaw will be exposed relentlessly or that the team will have put too much into the regular season and not have been built for any reasonable stretch beyond 82 games (San Jose last year).

by kseandoyle on Mar 24, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Or they get up a team that just has their number for some reason.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Mar 25, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Let’s be honest. Why win the President’s because it’s only a 30% chance of winning? Eff the fact that no other position even comes close, the best team in the regular season isn’t worth it!

I should have saved my old signature. Oh well!

by Whiter Mage on Mar 25, 2010 6:49 PM EDT reply actions