Capital Ups and Downs: Week 23
by J.P. on Mar 22, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in Capital Ups and Downs
184 comments
Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:
| Goalies | Trend | Notes |
| Jose Theodore |  |
2-0-0/2.02/.944 for the week, 6-0-0/1.80/.939 since the Olympic break, and 16-0-2/2.40/.927 since January 13. Say, 16 wins without losing four of any seven-game stretch. Hmm... |
| Semyon Varlamov |  |
It's not that Varly was bad in Carolina - he was hung out to dry by his defense a couple of times and let in one bad goal - but losing a game you lead after two periods is exactly the kind of thing that can't be happening in crunch time. |
| Defensemen | ||
| John Carlson | |
Hit at least as many pipes (two) as goalies this week and continues to impress... when he's not missing hip checks. |
| Joe Corvo | |
Scored twice in his Carolina homecoming (his three shots on goal against the 'Canes were the most he's had in a game as a Cap) and has four points in his last three games, but has yet to be a plus in any single game for the Caps. Huh. |
| John Erskine |  |
No. Just no. |
| Mike Green | |
One assist, just two shots on goal, a minus-two rating, two minor penalties and on the ice for the last three goals the Caps have allowed (all at even strength, two at four-on-four). Obviously he'll need to re-focus pretty soon. |
| Milan Jurcina |  |
How's the man-area, Juice? |
| Shaone Morrisonn | |
On the ice for half of the goals the Caps allowed on the week (all at even strength), despite being fourth or fifth among the team's blueliners in ice time in each game. Not a good stat. |
| Tom Poti | |
A couple of plus-one's disguise some uncharacteristically poor play from Poti, though he did play more than a dozen minutes on the penalty kill and was on the ice for only a single goal against, which came three-on-five. |
| Jeff Schultz | |
The NHL's leader in plus-minus among defensemen hasn't had a plus game since March 4 and has been a minus-one three times in the seven games since, including Thursday in Carolina. Throw in losing Vinny Lecavalier on the Bolts goal Saturday and Sarge gets a down arrow for the week. |
| Tyler Sloan | |
An assist, a big hit, three blocks and a plus-one rating in Florida? Up arrow for T-Slo. |
| Forwards | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom | |
With a goal and four assists in three games, Backstrom continues to roll, putting an exclamation point on his week in Tampa with an indirect pass to Alex Ovechkin that reminded you just how special the slick Swede is. |
| Eric Belanger | |
Being on the ice for half of the eight goals the Caps allowed this week isn't good. Neither were the back-to-back minus-ones he put up in Carolina and Tampa. Nor was his two-for-11 night in the face-off circle Saturday. |
| Matt Bradley | |
A couple of plus-one's and a helper in Carolina. Brads is doing his best to stay among Bruce Boudreau's top-12 forwards. |
| Jason Chimera | |
Scored in Florida and had plenty of chances all week but failed to convert most of them (to be expected, I suppose) and ended up on the ice for four goals on the week (all at even strength), including the last three the Caps allowed. |
| Eric Fehr |  |
Goal in Sunrise. Clutch goal in Carolina. Assist in Tampa. All in around 11:40 of total ice time and 23 seconds of power play time per game. He's good; it's Fehrified. |
| Tomas Fleischmann | |
Scored an early goal in Tampa, but had no points, three shots on goal and a minus-one rating for the rest of the week. |
| Boyd Gordon | |
His injury problems are, um, back. Not good. |
| Mike Knuble | |
He was bound to cool off, but no goals in his last eight games is a tough stretch for the now officially snake-bitten Knuble. |
| Brooks Laich | |
Two goals against the Kitties, assists in each game this week and a six-game point streak. Even better: the Tampa game was his first in seven in which he registered fewer than five shots on goal. Keep firing the biscuit, Brooksie. |
| Quintin Laing | |
Laing played against the Panthers. FYI. |
| Brendan Morrison | |
With one goal, four assists and a plus-three rating on the week, B-Mo put together his best three-game performance of the season, points-wise. |
| Alex Ovechkin | |
Returned from a two-game absence and scored a goal. Of course he did. |
| Alexander Semin | |
With two goals and an assist on the week, Semin is due for a big game real soon. How about Wednesday night? |
| David Steckel | |
One assist, plus-two and 7:49 of PK time without a goal allowed in two games. Hard to ask for much more than that out of Stecks. |
| Scott Walker |  |
Fight a bigger guy who's only in the League because of his willingness to be punched in the face, get a purple heart. Walker also had an assist in Raleigh. |
2 recs |
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ooooh, pretty new check mark for Fehr! I’m also sure Sloan’s up arrow (which I agree with, fwiw) will just make Ovechwin’s day.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donate to the Rink Pledge Drive for SAVES FOR KIDS! Ain’t nothing [wrong] about giving $5 so a stranger’s premature baby can have the time on a respirator they need.~Gould Old Days
My man Fehr
Fehr claims he scores big goals… Lets look at the math…
Ovechkin 45G – 6GWG = 13.33% – average GWG’s per minute played = .00447
Backstrom 29G – 4GWG = 13.79% – " = .00274
Semin 33G – 5GWG = 15.15% – " = .00417
Green 17G – 3GWG = 17.64% – " = .00176
Laich 24G – 3GWG = 12.5% – " = .00227
Flash 21G – 4GWG = 19.04% – " = .00307
Knuble 25G – 5GWG = 20.00% – " = .00499
B.Mo 12G – 3GWG = 25.00% – " = .00272
Fehr 20G – 3GWG = 15.00% – " = .00413
Bradley 8G – 3GWG = 37.50% – " = .00383
Looks like Matt Bradley does a pretty great job of being clutch. Knuble is probably the most consistent. Fehr, Ovechkin and Semin are also fairly similar.
Eh, GWG is a pretty worthless stat, IMO when talking about how clutch a guy is or isn’t – how can a metric that treats a goal scored to give a team a 3-0 lead in a game that winds up 7-2 the same as an OT winner be considered a reasonable measure of anything?
To wit, not one of Fehr’s GWG’s has come in the third period (or OT), and he’s been far less productive in the 3rd than in the first two frames (no doubt with less ice time, too, but still).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 22, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Now ten goals and ten assists in tied games and seven goals and five assists in the last five minutes – those numbers look pretty nice.
by David M. Getz on Mar 22, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty sure those “last five minutes” are the last five of any period and not just games, FWIW (otherwise it wouldn’t reconcile with the 3rd period stats).
But yeah, that half his goals and more than half his points have come with the score tied is nice (and almost identical to Alex Semin’s 10G, 11A in the same situations).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Three Fehr game changers from this year, right off the top of my head:
1. Put the Caps back in the game when we were down 4-1 to the Pens during Snowmageddon.
2. The GTG against Carolina
3. And his GTG @Canadiens back on 11/28 that provoked this epic Habs fan meltdown (language quite possibly NSFW).
Clutch much, Fehrsie?
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
by EmilyB on Mar 22, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And I’ll note, though his goals are not often the game-winners, many of his goals are momentum-shifting goals that spark the team, or give them some breatjing room, or (ahem) give the top two lines a needed kick in the ol’ hockey haunches.
These factors are very hard to account for on the scoresheet.
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
Rec’d for sentimental reasons.
"I know I was the best CIA agent the CIA ever had, but I thought I told you honkies from the CIA that Black Dynamite was out of the game!"
by Bald Pollack on Mar 22, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
no, your point is well taken here. He’s been pretty consistently scoring big goals. Good work on the research, too.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick, someone tell Paul Rovnak – #EricFehrGotHisCheckMark !
"It hit me on the pants. I had protection. It felt good. Why? I wanted to win."
by bagace on Mar 22, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Schultz’s +/- trend is somewhat troubling. He’s definitely looked less comfortable out there than he has all season.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
Agreed. Hope he’s not starting to wear down. I wonder if he’s having trouble keeping on weight through the grind of the season.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Does Knuble get an up arrow if his two goals aren’t disallowed?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
any consideration to knuble’s rating based upon him missing his LW for two games?
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see Chimera-BMo-Fehr line get another shot. They had a very productive game against Florida and a solid game against Carolina. Even when they weren’t scoring, they forechecked aggressively and created chances. Too bad Chim couldn’t convert a couple times, but maybe that timing will improve if the line is given a chance to cohere further. The average speed of that line is pretty impressive as well. Definitely helped when they were crashing the net (Chimera’s goal immediately comes to mind). I would like to see them in action against some non-Southeast division teams to see what they can do.
"We are such fans of your music and all of your records. I'm not speaking of yours personally, but the whole genre of the rock and roll."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Mar 22, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
Too bad Chim couldn’t convert a couple times, but maybe that timing will improve if the line is given a chance to cohere further.
Don’t count on it – the lack of finish was all Chimmer, and it’s part of the reason he is who he is.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Chim buried Morrison’s beautiful pass at full speed during the Florida game though. That demonstrated some good timing. The BMo-Fehr tangent is more important than that line as a whole though, IMO. I wouldn’t mind if another LW was swapped in. I just like the speed that Chimera brings.
"We are such fans of your music and all of your records. I'm not speaking of yours personally, but the whole genre of the rock and roll."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Mar 22, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps after we are done freeing Eric Fehr and Alex Ovechkin we can free Chimmer from the stone blocks he carries around. The man has hands of stone but I will take him anyway and I’m glad we made that trade.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
by souldrummer on Mar 22, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t get too attached. It won’t stay together. Chimera is destined for the 4th line when Fehr manages to earn himself a sweater.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
And BMo may be headed for 2C, since Belanger can’t seem to get it going.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I know the Rink thinks otherwise, but I still think Flash makes for a more dangerous 2nd line center – for Laich and Semin – than BMo or Belanger.
Yeah, both offensively and defensively, if you catch my drift.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Dangerous for which team?
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
More dangerous for the Caps, probably.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
25-18-24/10 looks like a good 4th line to me.
by mechanicsville on Mar 22, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It would work but I think Chimera should be on the ice more.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And 18 > 39 for regular even strength shifts.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah, I overlooked that as well. 39 had his chance at 3C. He had more than a fair chance to grab it by the throat. He failed.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Savin’ it up for the playoffs, where he’s a well-established producer.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s undeniable! Good thing we locked him up at only a 50% raise!
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Top-10 Most Valuable Cap, biatch!
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I can’t wait to do that again. Hopefully you link to the last one so we can go back and make fun of the people that were wrong re-evaluate our positions.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If there’s one thing this blog does well, it’s saying “I told you so” holding people accountable for the things they write.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
…right. Which also keeps 39 ready to go on the PK.
by mechanicsville on Mar 22, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
by D'ohboy on Mar 22, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Instead of end-of-practice sprints, for the rest of the season Chimera should do breakway shot practice, start at his own blue-line with the puck, chase it down and then shoot on Varly/Theo to work on his shot-taking. Maybe even have OV and Sasha watch and give him some pointers.
I’ve got to believe this has been tried with this man during his career. He is what he is and he doesn’t have to score in bunches to contribute.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
by souldrummer on Mar 22, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I love ’em, but AO and Sasha sometimes have their own troubles finish breakaways.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
What like goal 45? AO can finish, just struggles with shootouts and penalty shots when he has to think. Semin, that’s another story, although he’s better in shootouts.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
by souldrummer on Mar 22, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I can think of at least two breakaways in the past 3 weeks where AO has had a clear path to the net and over-thought, and they weren’t SO situations (but the teams escape me right now). In fact, AO is pretty much the worst [superstar] breakaway guy I’ve ever seen, I think.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovie has never been a breakaway/shootout guy. I was screaming at the top of my lungs at Russia vs Slovakia when Russia chose to put him out there for THREE shootout attempts, while only giving Datsyuk one.
I wish I could at least say that Ovie comes up big on breakaways when it matters most, but he didn’t vs PIT in game 7.
You had me at no problem.
Ovie has never been a breakaway/shootout guy.
Disagree – he was money in the bank for his first half-season or so in the shootout. Since then, however, not so much (though I think he’s far better on breakaways than shootouts).
He’s still the best goal-scorer on the planet, though, and there’s not a guy on this team I’d rather have in a situation like that in a Game 7. Call it blind faith, but it certainly is faith.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He’s been getting better, I think… ever since he scored the shootout winner in the last all star game.
He definitely seems better on breakaways than in shootouts. Maybe it the energy and adrenaline of 5 on 5 hockey that plays into Ovie’s hands so well.
Agree with you that there’s no one I’d rather have in that situation, but that’s mostly because he’s the captain, he’s the MVP, and there’s no way I’d rather see the puck go into the net than off of #8’s stick.
You had me at no problem.
In a game breakaway it’s more out of nowhere and the goalie has less time to get prepared and focused. I think that’s a big part of it. AO kills teams/goalies with the element of surprise. It’s not really in the SO.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a small run of breakaway goals on the backhand during the January streak that probably made a few goaltending tapes. Credit goes to MAF for making a huge early save in last year’s gm. 7, but he cheated to the glove side like a mofo. I’d love to see him get another crack at that situation just to see what 8 would do.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
Is there any rule disallowing that in shootouts or on penalty shots, we can have Nicky bank a shot off the boards to get Ovie started?
For every action, there is an equal and opposite criticism.
by Rather Bengt on Mar 22, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point…I think Ovi moving his legs and shooting > gliding in and shooting, and the SO can tease out a lower gear. I’ll bet his game breakaway scoring rate is higher than his SO scoring rate (~30%?).
Just another reason I am so glad the gimmick is not a part of playoff hockey.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
there’s not a guy on this team I’d rather have in a situation like that in a Game 7.
I kinda like him too.
Signed,
M.A. Fleury
"I know I was the best CIA agent the CIA ever had, but I thought I told you honkies from the CIA that Black Dynamite was out of the game!"
by Bald Pollack on Mar 22, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn, sorry b.o.t., I skipped the “read before posting” class at Mod school.
"I know I was the best CIA agent the CIA ever had, but I thought I told you honkies from the CIA that Black Dynamite was out of the game!"
by Bald Pollack on Mar 22, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing blind about it. He’s Alex Ovechkin, for God’s sake.
by mechanicsville on Mar 22, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Missed it last week. Just too busy at work.
Magic Number Update:
SE: Clinched with amazing efficiency a week + ago.
East: 2.5 with 10 games left. Any combination of 5 points for us or 5 points against PIT, and NJD gives us the East.
President’s: 7 over Chicago
Probably best kept in the Clips thread, which is for general hockey discussion. This thread is for specifically discussing the Ups and Downs.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Been something I’ve been posting on a weekly basis since we took over the number 3 weeks in on the season. Good weekly break for it, I thought.
That’s cool. I was just pointing out that there’s already some good discussion of the magic numbers going on in the Clips thread that you could join.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Blue Check?
What does Fehr have to do to get regular minutes/ regular linemates? Based on the coach’s comments, it’s reasonable to assume BB expects less from Fehr than from Flash. Is there a metric I’m missing wherein Flash is exceeding expectations? Blinded by kool-aid, am I missing a facet where Fehr is not exceeding expectations (at least BB’s)?
Dont say blackmail photos or mancrush: does anyone in here have a hockey reason why Fehr’s used as he is?
Jag antar parader är cool.
Short of it somehow being a motivating factor for him, I don’t know. Fehr certainly seems to make the most of his minutes.
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I don’t get it, either. I would be playing Fehr more until he royally screws up. He shows more upside all the time. Other than taking some good shots and getting some goals, Flash makes me nervous. I still do not understand why he is out there more on the PP than Semin, who is oh so much better on both the PP and PK. I feel like it just shows blind favortism by BB.
I’d use Semin’s special-teams minutes more for PP than PK; he can’t eat big minutes in all three phases w/o getting worn down and suffering a brain cloud or other injury. But I was wondering about Fehr’s minutes, more than Flash’s or Semin’s.
Jag antar parader är cool.
by redlineblue on Mar 22, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
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Haven’t we documented here though that Semin is one of the best Caps PKers on a team that sucks on the PK? Seems to me that we don’t want to take him away from that. Laich and Semin can both contribute on the PP and maybe the answer is that on a team with as much depth as we have in our 3rd lines to use more of our “stars” on specials in both the PP and PK with the exception of AO who you don’t want to expose to injury.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Or...
…it shows a coach properly managing the ice time and exposure of a player who’s come off a summer where he had double-shoulder surgery, both of which was a torn labrum. This was a guy who Fehr has a bad and recent history of being fragile, and this is his first season where he’s been playing healthy. Whenever we discuss Fehr’s icetime in relation to other players on the roster, you cannot forget that Fehr’s medical sheet looks a lot different than those other players, which affects his stamina.
by Forsch31 on Mar 22, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
Rec’d for looking thru the other end of the telescope.
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
Rec’d for the first legitimate reason I’ve heard for Fehr being treated the way he has. That is a really good point.
However, given some of BB’s other ice time management decisions I’m not sure how much things like stamina and long term health of players factor into his decisions.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 22, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
How would Fehr get more minutes? That’s the only problem. Laich and Knuble are in front of him for the time being.
I’d love him to be out on the PP, especially with Ovechkin out there. Some sort of mega net-crash line with him, Lars and Knuble. If we want to force Ovechkin to bomb them in, give him two guys who will do something with the rebounds or partially blocked shots.
He gets a ton of production out of skating half as many shifts as anyone else it seems. Let him simmer on the stove till Knuble retires then sit back and watch him toss in goal after goal after goal.
President and sole member of the Erskine lobby.
And he steps up for some big goals
If I’m not mistaken, Fehr has scored our only goalie pulled goals for us this year..Carolina and Montreal. He also scored the second goal against the Pens at home when it looked like we were dead in the water at the end of the second to keep us in the game.
by Direction 87 on Mar 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, both good calls. That steparound on Jay McKee revitalized us for that great third period v. PIT
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The step around was nice, but MAF’s juicy rebound was the key to that play.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
true dat. I continue to believe MAF is v. beatable
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. He was carried by the rest of the Pens in last year’s playoffs.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He had his moments, but he was one of the top 3 reasons why the Caps took the Pens to Game 7. AO is the biggest reason, then the difference between Varlamov and MAF is next.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 22, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Fehr hardly played in last year’s playoff series against the Pens. He was on the 4th line, injured his shoulder, and that’s the last we saw of him.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I was talking about Fleury…
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 23, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I somehow doubt that Knuble will be playing top line minutes in 2011-2012 given that he’ll be 39 years old even if he remains with the Caps that season. Which will mean there’s space for a right winger, such as Fehr or Semin.
So, Fehr would certainly get more minutes, in that case, either as the top line or the second line right winger.
(Memo to GM GM — sign Fehr and Semin for 2011-2012 and beyond.)
(Memo to Eric Fehr and Alex Semin, there will be room for a new top line right winger. Also, guys, you may make more money elsewhere but where else is there such a great group of guys to play with? Sign with the Caps for 2011-2012 and beyond.)
Rocking the Red since 1975
Now that you’re getting rambunctious with the graphics perhaps we can get a loaf of bread for when Slippers or Laich or going to the bakery.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
I think the alternate graphics are mostly for special occasions, though. Knubs and Laich go to the bakery all the time.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 22, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I know “not all arrows are created equal,” but I’d still love to see a graph of all the Ups and Downs at the end of the season, for curiosity’s sake.
I’d volunteer to make it myself, but I don’t have the prowess to add all the “Fehrified” and “trending Sasha” logos to the graph.
"My face is my mask."
A generous dash for Tom Poti, says here. The silly tossdown of Steve Downie, with a PP already marked, took my cake for the week.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
Real bad penalty, especially from a veteran.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Poti seems to have a talented for making sure his really bad penalties are really bad. Remember earlier in the season when he got a double minor because he told the ref what he thought of his officiating? Just stupid stupid stupid.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donate to the Rink Pledge Drive for SAVES FOR KIDS! Ain’t nothing [wrong] about giving $5 so a stranger’s premature baby can have the time on a respirator they need.~Gould Old Days
9 times out of 10 you don’t get a penalty for that in the NHL, especially if you have an A on your jersey. I don’t think you can put that one all on Poti.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
which makes me wonder exactly what was said, to some extent. He likes to yap at refs.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donate to the Rink Pledge Drive for SAVES FOR KIDS! Ain’t nothing [wrong] about giving $5 so a stranger’s premature baby can have the time on a respirator they need.~Gould Old Days
Idea for poti
Same idea as with Downie, just do when guys are standing in front of your goal on the power play.
by Direction 87 on Mar 22, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
playoffs vs. philly too…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh. painful memories. That was a series we should have never lost.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Terrible when I saw it – then I saw Downie shooting his stick down the ice, which is what made him punch him. The Ref needed some lessons that night.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Still wholly inexcusable. You just can’t take the bait with guys like that.
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Was it bait? I think it was just reaction. Granted, most players aren’t going to do that to you, but I can’t believe he wouldn’t have reacted the same way to anyone.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Poti had just done an excellent job drawing a penalty while killing one, and then he pissed it away because he got into it with a pest. I’m not sure how that can be viewed as anything but atrocious on Poti’s part.
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You didn’t smile a little when Downie hit the ice?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Not really, since it was a bit of a dive from which he bounced right up.
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I did, however, smile when Downie got an early trip to the showers with his late penalty. At the end of that day, he only ended up agitating his coach and Poti.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
by souldrummer on Mar 22, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Two good examples of the good and the bad of a guy like Downie – drew the penalty from Poti, then selfishly took one to kill his team’s hopes of a comeback.
Btw, that Poti call was for something that happened way after the whistle, so for anyone that was buying that “you can’t call a penalty after the whistle” stuff, there’s that.
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No, it was terrible, and I yelled at my TV, too, but when stupid, petty shit like that happens to you, I can understand that split-second loss of control.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
john erskine never would have taken that bait…just sayin.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t John Erskine’s job to get into that fight rather than Scottie Walker?
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
you would probably have to ask konopka, but if he wanted to start something then i would hope he would have sought out erskine rather than s. walker red. problem for konopka is there really arent any dance partners for him on the caps and i doubt stecks is going to sign up for that again.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ugh, that penalty made me so angry. I just knew the second I saw Downie fall that Poti was gone.
Really dumb play by a guy who should know better, and I say that as one of the few pro-Poti supporters around here. He should be benched next game just for that – no excuse whatsoever.
I say that as one of the few pro-Poti supporters around here
Semin Supporter Martyrdom Syndrome (SSMS) branching out?
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as of right now, i’d be more likely to add “GAS factor” to the glossary than SSMS. but it all depends on repeat use!
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 22, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously...
I wanted to kick Poti in the shins for that dumbass move. It was, like, WTF, Poti? Where. Is. Your. BRAIN?!
Blog: I Rock the Red
Twitter: @IRockTheRed
E-mail: irockthered {at} gmail {dot} com
i thought the defense played much better against Tampa on saturday night. i wonder whether some of the recent inconsistent play has been because of the constant shufflig among the defensive pairs.
i also noticed that Theo has given up 11 goals in 6 games while Varly has give up 13 in 4 games. some of the goals have to do with defense and some with the goal tending.
[I wish I could have] Backstrom for Free!
Now that’s a T-shirt message that I can get behind!
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 22, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I keep going back to Nick’s sublime bank pass from, oh, 125 feet to spring 8 against Tampa and I keep thinking 7M is the floor for his next deal.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
Sublime's the right word for 19.
If he gets one of those NHL bodies, Look Out. Here’s my calculation:
{Semin-like offensive output, $6M} + {Schultzish defensive acountability, rather a steal at $700K} = $6.7M.
I’m all about Backstrom—and having player*s* for him to win with, year in and out.
Jag antar parader är cool.
Amen. That would be a great per annum cap hit, imo. It’ll be interesting to see how it’s structured.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 23, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
because we just can't have enough stats
We should create a new stat called JP’s +/-
Every week where a player gets an UP they get a +1. Every week they’re down they get a -1.
Kinda curious as to who would be the leader in that kinda +/-. I’m too lazy to look but I’m going to guess Backstrom would be tops
It might tell us who the most “improved” player is. JP tends to set the bar high when someone consistently performs well so it takes a little extra to get that up arrow
Perhaps this wise suggestion is just an attempt to distract us from that bizarre Carolina bet. JSchon pierces the balloon!
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
A 3 in 500 chance? We’ve got a better chance of a Quentin Laing gamewinner against the Pens.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Take it to the Caps Clips if this is going to continue. I’ll be glad to pile on Brain.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Ask and eventually someone will get to it...
So I ran JP’s +/- and we get some interesting results from it, but some aren’t too surprising. (I didn’t count in the number of times a player was injured or when he got a purple heart, though I’ll add those up later). Also, I left out some of the prospects, unless they had more than a couple of weeks, or their numbers were big (either direction).
+/- # Player:
8 – Theo
7 – Bradley
6 – Laich
5 – Flash, Ovie
4 – Carlson, Poti, Backstrom, B Mo.
3 – Neuvy, Knubble
2 – S. Mo, Steckel
1 – Varly, Green, Chimera, Walker
Even – Corvo, Erskine, Jurcina, Pothier, Fehr, Laing
-1 – Belanger, Gordon, Perrault
-2 – Alzner, Clark, Semin
-3 – (none)
-4 – Sloan
by Elliotte on Mar 22, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Interesting. I wonder who had the most total arrows. My guess would be Green – dude’s been all over the map this year it seems.
And where’s Schultz?
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argh, I knew I’d miss someone. Shultz is in at +2.
B. Mo and Backstrom had the most total arrow with 18, followed by Theo with 16, and 4 more guys with 15. Interesting side note, Semin’s the only one with a double arrow of any kind (down).
Varly’s spent the most weeks injured with 10, followed by Boyd Gordon with 7. Laing’s got the most Purple Hearts, with two, but Brads, Steckel, and Walker each have one of their own.
by Elliotte on Mar 22, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
pretty cool. so if i’m interpreting correctly, according to JP, theo has played beyond expectations for more weeks than anyone else. on the flip side, for the guys who played consistently/still with the team, semin has played below expectations.
i’m a bit surprised to see knubs only at a plus 3 while B mo at plus 4 and fehr at the mendoza (can we call it the laing line) line. does the twitter check count as a plus?
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I hadn’t counted it as one, but it could be. Along those same lines, some would count a Purple Heart as a plus, since that guy is taking a beating for the team.
i think purple hearts should be a catagory all on its own. give Q a chance to lead the team in one statistical category…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It would probably give fodder to the anti-Green for Norris crowd, but I think it might be time to sit Mike for a game or so and give him some rest. He hasn’t looked totally himself for the last few games and maybe he just needs a breather. Without him playing at full strength, the Caps will be hard pressed to get out of the Conference.
I’d thought about that, but a) he just had a two-plus week break and b) his minutes were down last week, so he’s getting less work as it is. I think his focus – like much of the team’s – has been elsewhere lately, somewhat understandably. I don’t think a night off will help with that.
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Sounds like the same thing we were saying last year around this time, coasting into the playoffs and all, and Feds even saying exactly that. But I haven’t noticed it as much this year – they haven’t looked like world-beaters every game, but give some credit to the competition, who’s often fighting for a playoff spot. And still the Caps have come out on top (1 regulation loss in the last 10…)
It might be, though that they’re just way better this year, so “taking the night off” still puts them at a higher level.
I think you nailed it at the end there – they have enough skill to win just on that. I haven’t been worried by the efforts they’ve put forth overall, though I wasn’t crazy about the Tampa game or most of the Carolina game. Those, of course, are the last two, so a stop has to be put to it before it goes much further, IMO.
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Maybe he’s a little dinged up. He just doesn’t seem himself. And he’s making really bad mistakes at times, bad even by his standards.
Agreed on the mistakes. They seem focus-based to me, though. Maybe he’s squeezing his stick a bit, too – no goals in five games, three shots in his last four… those aren’t Green-like numbers. In fact, that 3-shots-in-4-games is the fewest he’s had in a four-game span since March of 2007… other than towards the end of last year’s playoffs. Maybe he is nicked a bit after all.
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keep greenie on the ice so you know where he is. idle hands and all.
seems like they are limiting his minutes which is good. given his prominance on the PP, i dont think you want to sit him out too much. one game might not hurt, particularly on the second of a back to back.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Mar 22, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Off-topic but...
So, the full recap for Caps clinching scenarios: The earliest for the EC- 3/25, earliest for the President’s Trophy- 4/5.
via @CapsBlog/ washingtoncapitalsblog.blogspot.com
CB – for future reference, off-topic hockey stuff goes in the Caps Clips post for a given day; off-topic non-hockey stuff goes in that day’s Off-Topic Open Thread.
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Goals Against On Ice
I know that sometimes you’ve gotta split hairs on these ratings, but I’m not a huge fan of using “Goals Against On Ice” as one of the ratings because it seems pretty dependent on luck. Sometimes, a player gets burned by one of his colleagues’ incompetence, for example Flash’s braincramp on the Brett Carson goal in Carolina.
Anyhow, just my two cents. It’s pretty much the same reason I’m not a fan of +/-.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I think that’s fair. But I also think that sometimes it can be significant, and when a 3rd-line center is on for half of the goals the team allowed on the week, it’s raises an eye-brow and is worth further investigation (which is maybe beyond the scope of this weekly feature).
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Agreed. I’m usually a stats guy, but I find them less informative for such a small snapshot of time, so I’d be more likely to cite specific mistakes or brilliant plays. Either way, I don’t think my ratings would differ from yours all that materially.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
That Brett Carson goal was a team fail. Bad turnover by Nick, bad glove by Varlamov, floating by Flash, pretty much everyone running around.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That was Flash’s check though. Yeah, you can place some blame on the other guys – Varly in particular – but personally, I wouldn’t cast blame at Fehr, ShaMo or Carlson since there’s really not much they could have done to stop that one.
I realize it’s often not assimple as defining who had whom on a given play, but I think that if we’re going to use the stat for evaluative purposes, there should be some kind of caveat like: was on the ice for 3 goals against on the week, but honestly one of those was a softy that beat Varly 5-hole.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I agree with you, just pointing out how displeased I was with the total team effort on that goal.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 22, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
for one +/- I’d think it’s bad luck, but for a whole season it’s an indication of something. It’s kind of like a person that has bad things constantly happen to them, like a speeding ticket, then a parking ticket, then a car accident, then they hit a biker crossing the street, any one of those things alone could be brushed off as bad luck or a momentary mind lapse, looking at the whole picture tells you that this person shouldn’t be allowed near a car.
It’s an indication of the quality of your team, the quality of your competition and a little bit how much you contribute to both.
Suspend Colin Campbell!
I buy your last sentence, but the preceding paragraph doesn’t really apply, since driving a car isn’t a team activity.
If my team sucks and I’m part of that team, then I’m contributing to that suck in a small way. On the other hand, a given player shouldn’t be blamed/praised for what is actually a team accomplishment. Ovie was a +2, then a -19, then a +28, then a +8, despite putting up fairly consistent stat lines. The difference, of course, was the teams that he was playing on.
Now, if a player, let’s call him “Meat Man,” is playing on a team with a great 5v5 scoring ratio (like the Caps) and has a lower +/- than other players on his team, then that’s a little more telling. Meat Man probably isn’t all that responsible defensively, no matter what his coach thinks.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
by D'ohboy on Mar 22, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s not a 1:1 metaphor but I think it still applies at least on a season by season basis. To sum up, it’s not an accident that Ovie’s +/- is 16 higher than everyone else’s, it’s not necessarily an indication that you’re good defensively because it also is an indication of offense while you’re on the ice. You could put a guy like Alzner out there with the 4th line and he wouldn’t have a high +/- just because that line doesn’t score as much, but he can keep the puck of to the net.
The stat isn’t worthless in and of itself, but I think you have to look a few stats with it to get it’s value. either different stats on the same player or the +/- of other players on his line and the team as a whole, like you mentioned.
A look at the dominance of our top 5 guys is demonstrated by 4 of them being in the top 5 +/-.
Suspend Colin Campbell!
On Fehr being Clutch
I forget what the website is that tracks their version of clutch players. But I did my own calculations. A player is awarded 1 point for each of the following goals: gwg, gtg, come back goal(G-CB), goal in OT(OT-G), goal in SO(SO-G), multi-goal game, SHG, PPG, and first to score (FTS).
Come back goals are awarded anytime the player scores when the team is losing, not neccissarily his goal led to a win.
Brooks Laich – 24 goals on the year. 31 points. 3 – GWG, 1-GTG, 6-G-CB, 1-OT-G, 0-SO-G, 6 MGG, 1 SHG, 11 PPG, 2 FTS
Eric Fehr – 20 goals on the year. 20 points. 3 – GWG, 3 – GTG, 5 – G-CB, 0 – OT-G, 0 – SO-G, 1 – MGG, 0 – SHG, 3- PPG, 5 – FTS.
Tomas Flash – 21 goals on the year. 26 points. 4 – GWG, 0 – GTG, 5 G-CB, 1 – OT-G, 0 – SO-G, 3 – MGG, 0 – SHG, 7 – PPG, 6 – FTS.
Mike Green – 17 goals on the year. 23 Points. 3 – GWG, 1 – GTG, 6 – CB-G, 1 – OT-G, 0 – SO-g, 2 – MGG, 0 – SHG, 9 – PPG, 1 – FTS.
By this standard, Fehr isn’t terribly clutch. Being that for every goal Laich, Flash, and Green scored they earned respectively: 1.291 pts, 1.238 pts, 1.353 pts. While Fehr earned 1 point per 1 goal.
Nothing.
also to clarify, a player can receive multiple points for one goal. A GWG scored on a PP would be worth 2 points, if it were scored in OT, 3 points. This also eliminates superflous goals like ENGs and goals scored when the team is ahead.
Nothing.
See, I hate excluding empty-netters. They aren’t superfluous, they end the game for all intents and purposes. If that’s not clutch, I don’t know what is.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 22, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Same thing with goals when a team is ahead. Is scoring a goal to put your team up 3-1 with 4 minutes left superfluous or clutch? I also don’t think there is any reason why PP goals should be considered inherently clutch, and it seriously hurts Fehr in comparison to the other players mentioned given how little PP time he sees (and the PP time he does get is rarely with the top line).
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 23, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
If you disagreed with PPG’s I included all the data so you could take away everyone’s and see. I was trying to replicate the stat site I saw previously, but I admit no statistic is really perfect in saying how clutch a player is with scoring. Any goal can be a game changer or momentum swinger. I felt PPG’s are there to capitalize on an opportunity, but ENGs while often can put that final nail in the coffin so to speak, are very easy goals. Some people really try to rip Ovechkin for how many ENGs he has, and usually leads the league with.
But for other stat comparisons I’ll add ENGs and subtract PPGs
Brooks Laich and Mike Green are the only players with ENGs. Without PPGs the numbers looks like. The averages again show a bit different with Laich actually being the least clutch avg…..factoring in a per 60 minute basis as well.
Brooks Laich: 24 goals, 20 points…. 0.8333 pts per goal…68.7 pts/60
Eric Fehr: 20 goals, 17 points….0.85 pts per goal…84.2 pts/60
Tomas Fleischmann: 21 goals, 19 points….0.905 pts per goal…70.1 pts/60
Mike Green: 17 goals, 15 points. ….0.882 pts per goal…35.5 pts/60
As Per the avgs with PPGs and ENG included however (basically the first numbers put into /60 with mike green and brooks laich having 1 additional point for ENG) are below:
Laich: 104.7
Fehr: 99.0
Flash: 95.8
Green: 56.8
A little unfair for Green though because he’s a D and plays waaaay more minutes than anyone else. Stats are fun, but should be taken with a grain of salt. Its been a few years since my days in calculus, but an actual statistician could probably take the set of data I pulled and twist it to saying Fehr is better than Ovechkin. So while this data is interesting there are always things to consider
Nothing.
by breaklance on Mar 23, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think your talking about Ken Campbell’s Campbellnomics on THN (at least that’s the only similar metric I’ve seen). He doesn’t count PPG, but his method has it’s own problems, like counting all SO goals as clutch.
I agree that trying to quantify clutch goals is tough without looking at the specifics of each goal. If pushed I’d say any goal that is scored when the score it is tied or a 1 goal game (you can maybe include goals when you are trailing by 2 to get the comeback influence in there). This counts goals that tie the game, put your team ahead, or provide an insurance goal as clutch, which I think is fair. Another issue is that over the course of a season just by random players are going to pile up a lot of goals in these scenarios. An interesting adjustment may be to look at the percentage of goals and points that come in “clutch” situations rather than the raw count. This may give you an idea of whether a guy is stepping it up in tight games rather than just scoring a bunch at random times and then inherently getting a high clutch rating.
Still, nice work. I think those second set of numbers without the PPG probably provide a better idea of relative “clutchness” for Fehr compared to Flash and Laich. And you’re right that Green and other defensemen have to be evaluated separately.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Mar 23, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
good work on this…as Knee High indicates, I’d add the EN’s too. It’s the dagger.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
by bigonetimer on Mar 22, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think MGG is a measure of clutch at all so I’d remove that. I also think PPG is at best a very rough estimate, especially with this team that piles on PPGs in games that are out of hand. I’d also consider limiting G-CB to situations where the team is only down 3 or fewer. A G-CB when we are losing 6-2 isn’t all that clutch, IMO. Great work and effort, though. Just my suggestions.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 23, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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