Enter the Goalie
by Brainumbc on Mar 18, 2010 3:48 PM EDT
72 comments
So we started talking in the OT thread about SV% and how 88-89 saw the beginning of a shift in the way hockey is played. Someone mentioned how if you had a sv% of .900 in the 80's then you were practically the Vez cup winner and how goals were much more frequent. So I got intrigued and compiled some #'s to (a) satisfy my curiosity and (b) redeem myself for all the umm... sub-par.. posts I've been cluttering the board with. So take a look at these numbers. I double checked all my stats and I pray to God that I didn't make any mistakes.
| vez winner | vez sv% | cup goalie | cup sv % | avg sv % | shots/g | gpg | wgpg | mgpg | Events | |
| 81-82 | Smith | 0.900 | Smith | 4.01 | 1.15 | |||||
| 82-83 | Peters | 0.904 | Smith | 3.86 | 0.88 | |||||
| 83-84 | Barrasso | 0.893 | Fuhr | 0.910 | 0.873 | 30.59 | 3.95 | 1.17 | ||
| 84-85 | Lindbergh | 0.899 | Fuhr | 0.895 | 0.874 | 30.49 | 3.88 | 0.91 | 0.58 | |
| 85-86 | V'brouck | 0.887 | Roy | 0.923 | 0.874 | 31.03 | 3.96 | 0.65 | 0.60 | |
| 86-87 | Hextall | 0.894 | Fuhr | 0.908 | 0.880 | 30.00 | 3.67 | 0.78 | 0.85 | |
| 87-88 | Fuhr | 0.881 | Fuhr | 0.883 | 0.879 | 30.44 | 3.71 | 0.62 | 0.90 | Crosby is born, Mario dips him in the River Styx. |
| 88-89 | Roy | 0.908 | Vernon | 0.905 | 0.879 | 30.37 | 3.73 | 0.69 | 1.11 | Gretzky to LA |
| 89-90 | Roy | 0.912 | Ranford | 0.912 | 0.881 | 30.26 | 3.68 | 0.54 | 0.76 | Mogilny defects, starts a trend |
| 90-91 | Belfour | 0.910 | Barrasso | 0.919 | 0.886 | 29.74 | 3.45 | 0.52 | 0.73 | Ovie loses first baby tooth eats it for breakfast |
| 91-92 | Roy | 0.914 | Barrasso | 0.907 | 0.888 | 30.43 | 3.43 | 0.41 | 0.68 | league expands |
| 92-93 | Belfour | 0.906 | Roy | 0.929 | 0.884 | 30.91 | 3.63 | 0.35 | 1.15 | league expands,# games goes from 80 to 84 |
| 93-94 | Hasek | 0.930 | Richter | 0.921 | 0.895 | 30.22 | 3.23 | 0.46 | 0.77 | league expends yet again |
| 94-95 | Hasek | 0.930 | Brodeur | 0.927 | 0.900 | 29.26 | 2.97 | 0.22 | Short season, D-minded Devils sweep Wings |
|
| 95-96 | Carey | 0.906 | Roy | 0.921 | 0.898 | 30.18 | 3.14 | 0.28 | 0.98 | # games shortened to 82 |
| 96-97 | Hasek | 0.930 | Vernon | 0.927 | 0.904 | 29.72 | 2.91 | 0.30 | 0.65 | Gretsky to NYR |
| 97-98 | Hasek | 0.932 | Osgood | 0.918 | 0.906 | 27.25 | 2.63 | 0.28 | NHL players in Olympics | |
| 98-99 | Hasek | 0.937 | Belfour | 0.930 | 0.907 | 27.79 | 2.63 | 0.12 | ||
| 99-00 | Kolzig | 0.917 | Brodeur | 0.927 | 0.904 | 27.89 | 2.74 | league expansion | ||
| 00-01 | Hasek | 0.921 | Roy | 0.934 | 0.903 | 27.62 | 2.75 | 0.81 | league expansion | |
| 08-09 | Thomas | 0.933 | Fleury | 0.908 | 0.908 | 30.11 | 2.91 |
vez sv% = Vezina winner's regular season sv %
cup sv % = Playoff sv % for the winning team's primary goalie
avg sv%= regular season sv % for the entire league (total shots fired the entire season / total saves made the entire season for all goalies)
shots/g = regular season average number of shots per game (total shots fired the entire season / (# games in regular season * # teams))
gpg = regular season avg # of goals scored per game by a single team
wgpg and mpgp = Just for fun, and to have another measuring stick I threw in Gretzky's and Lemeiux's regular season goals per game
Events = Anything significant that might have contributed to the way the game is played
All decimals are truncated, not rounded.
----------
So take it in.. this is mostly just for fun BUT... two questions come to my mind:
1) What the heck happened? How did the game start changing so much from an offensive game to a defensive game? Were the goalies just THAT crappy back in the 80's or were the offensive stars just THAT good back then... or did players change the way they shot the puck in the early 90's? Around 1989 did people realize that there was much more of an art form to goal tending? It's not like the players had more chances. Of all these numbers the only one that has been consistent is the # of shots per game.
2) What does this mean for the Caps? These are just my opinions.. which are usually WRONG. I'm curious as to what you guys might think about this.
a) I think we should stick with Theodore for the playoffs. Look at Ed Belfour. The man won the Vezina with (what was then) a solid sv %, and then his sv% over his career stagnated to just barely above league averages for a few years. Maybe he was just getting adjusted to a new team but he eventually found the right chemistry at the right time his second season with Dallas. I think Jose is ripe to recreate that scenario. "American lives don't have second acts" .. but Theodore is Canadian, damn it..
b) The caps are scoring 3.95 goals per game. There have been times that teams have reached that mark before but the overall league average hasn't been like that since 85-86. If we can play an old school offense maybe we can win with a save % that isn't the best.. as long as it's consistent throughout the playoff stretch.
c) M.A. Fluery 2009 playoffs .. I rest my case.
Two more random questions?
* How the hell did Jim Carey get the Vezina in 96?
* When did the goalie mask switch to the cage style? I'm assuming more protection against the neck and face would make a goalie less nervous and would make their save % increase.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Crosby is born, Mario dips him in the River Styx.
Rec’d for that comment alone… and for the awesome research!
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“Born at the instant the church bells chime, ”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trbAILjSbsU" target="new">born at the right time."
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Good god, Hasek’s save percentage numbers are absurd.
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by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 18, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I can’t believe there’s even a discussion about the best goalie of that era. Roy certainly did a lot to change the way goalies play, but Hasek was simply the better goalie. He played on some bad Buffalo teams and never got them to the cup, but he was about their only weapon.
I’m not going to discount Roy’s work, especially that ‘86 playoff run. Look at the Sv% in the finals versus all his contemporaries: .923, which wouldn’t be matched again until Roy posted a .929 in the ’93 Cup run, in which he again carried an otherwise unimpressive MTL team.
That number wouldn’t get matched again in the finals until Ed Belfour’s effort against the Sabres, and Roy would blow it out of the water two seasons later with a .934! In the finals? Against the ’01 Devils, who were actually very potent offensively? Wow.
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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 21, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Digesting all of this, but excellent, excellent work. I’m really impressed (and now no longer wondering what was taking so long!)
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It wasn’t too hard to assemble thanks to hockey-ref having a neat CSV feature… but you kind of had to get into a repetition to get it all together.
I’m wishing there was a place that just gave you raw data you could query.. I write SQL queries all day long so I could do some crazy stuff
I would kill to get ahold of a SQL query that could query penalty info…
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Forget the query… that’s the easy part. Getting access to a database with all the raw data is what’s hard
I can’t write a SQL query to save my wretched hide… the raw data would be the problem.
Doing it manually is downright impossible without someone to read and someone to type.
I considered a Perl (or similar) script to count for me… but I haven’t written one in ten years or so.
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I can write the query with no problem. Just need the data structure and a source of data. I write SQL queries for a living.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Hrm.
What I’m pulling things from is the game summaries, but I expect you’d need it cleaner than that…
It’d take considerable time, but I could manually dump the data to Excel…
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Neh. I need some hardcore raw data. What I wouldn’t give to get my hands on some of the databases that the NHL uses.
That would be very cool……. let me see what (if anything) I can get my paws on.
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Maybe it’s an odd thing to notice, but are my eyes broken, or is there only one Vezina + cup winner in the same year in that list? (Fuhr ’88)
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Yea there were a lot of weird things like that I had to double check because some things just didn’t seem right.. like that piece of info. More proof that voters for the trophies really to focus on regular season play.
Another “which one of these doesn’t belong” is Jim Carey’s .906 sv% in his Vezina year in the middle of a Haskey .930 sandwich. I looked at that one over and over and over.
that’s because all the awards are voted on between the end of the regular season and beginning of playoffs :)
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donate to the Rink Pledge Drive for SAVES FOR KIDS! Ain’t nothing [wrong] about giving $5 so a stranger’s premature baby can have the time on a respirator they need.~Gould Old Days
But the one thing to note is that most Vezina winner’s DID win the cup.. but later on in their careers.. and often with a different team… More proof that experience and the right chemistry is probably more important than who can “wow” us in the regular season (cough cough hinting at Jose being our #1)
by Brainumbc on Mar 18, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great point.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Mar 18, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
ah, the days when the Caps were a boring-as-hell playoff team! hey, that gives me an idea….where does this year’s team fit into Caps history, offensively.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
Donate to the Rink Pledge Drive for SAVES FOR KIDS! Ain’t nothing [wrong] about giving $5 so a stranger’s premature baby can have the time on a respirator they need.~Gould Old Days
1) What the heck happened?
I’ve always been under the impression that it was a combination of the butterfly style taking hold and pads getting bigger. Check the film on early Gretzky….those goalies wear less equipment than forwards do now, and they never hit the ice. He just picks off the low corners from the blue line routinely.
by psuscott1 on Mar 18, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think those two are the big things, but they really signify the beginning of an evolutionary process. Young forwards couldn’t really watch and replicate too much of what Gretzky was doing, but young goalies could definitely copy Patrick Roy.
Roy coming in and dominating through the butterfly meant that every most new goaltender that came in after was going to use the butterfly a lot more. And there were little upgrades along the way. Eddie Belfour, Felix Potvin with the paddle down, Martin Brodeur going sideways a lot. The next big leap was Hasek and his innovation was really cerebral. He would make the crazy saves, the ones that no one had thought to try, because he trained for them and thought more than the other goalies. He could turn a stone cold scoring chance (80% goal chance of shot going in) to a toss-up (50% chance). No one has really replicated his style (deep in the crease, reading plays) but everyone has adopted parts of it.
The pads got bigger but they started getting better too. Much lighter, more protective, better rebound control. Goalies also got better at using their sticks. Players obviously kept getting bigger and faster (in all sports), and the goalies’ increase meant that more of the net could be filled and the big guys could play butterfly too. Goalie coaching got better – now you’ve got a tiny country like Finland that can pump them out thanks to better coaching.
And then there’s the trap and other coaching changes. Those coaching changes and unwillingness of officials to call interference led to New Jersey and other teams that learned from them. Beyond neutral zone trapping, left-side locking, and third man high, all that gain in speed and size probably helped the defenders more than the attackers. (I’d love to hear some smart hockey historian tak about that – I’m not qualified).
2) What does this mean for the Caps?
Umm, nothing.
There’s no lesson there, by definition you’d expect the cup-winning goalie to have big numbers in a 19-24 game sample in which he wins 16 games. Doesn’t mean you need the Vezina winner (with 60-75 game sample) to win the cup. Also, it’s been rare that a cup winner has had two evenly-matched goalies – the money has been spent elsewhere, or there weren’t enough good goalies to go around. It would be one thing if we could say “the team plays better or plays its preferred style with Goalie X in net” but I think we’re past that point. Earlier I thought the team was playing better with Varlamov – partly because the players lacked some confidence in Theo, and partly because Varlamov could make more of the difficult saves when we played run-n-gun. I don’t see that any more and I think we’re just going to go with whoever is playing best (not exactly the same as stats) when the playoffs start.
What happened?
Butterfly, butterfly, butterfly.
Repeated studies up through the 1980s and even early 90s showed that 70% of all goals scored were on the ice. In comes the butterfly and takes away a huge percentage of those. Standup goaltenders just sucked, which is why nobody plays that way anymore. Brodeur isn’t a pure butterfly, but he’s on the ice WAAAAAY more than any of those guys back in the 80s.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Well originally goalies weren’t even allowed to go down. If a goaltender left their feet a 2 minute penalty would be assessed.
Clint Benedict is responsible for changing that. He started “accidentally” falling on the puck and eventually the rule was changed. He was on the ice so much he earned the nickname Praying Bennie.
So it didn’t really take 80 years to figure it out…I’d say more like 40. The going down on the ice was made legal at about 1915 and Glenn Hall (who I consider the first goalie to use the modern butterfly save) started in the early 1950’s. (Who played 502 games in a row without a mask and without missing a minute)
It took dumb players over 50 years to figure out that a curved blade would work better than a flat one, and that was an accident, so all things considered for such an unnatural move I think it progressed pretty quickly.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
I’d give the “first butterfly” to Plante, but either way, the timeframe is similar.
Interestingly, it still took a long time for the butterfly to become the standard method of goaltending.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Excellent work. The Fleury numbers really stand out, especially on that chart.
Its also interesting to compare are the regular season vs. playoff save % for the cup winners. Fleury, I think, is the only recent one who actually had a lower save % in the playoffs.
by Hangsleben's Heroes on Mar 18, 2010 4:15 PM EDT reply actions
That was the lowest sv% for a cup winner in the playoffs since 91/92..
And damned if the Penguins weren’t the ones who won it then
One thing I noticed also that took a while to pop out at me..
If you look at how the cup sv% swings up and down… on the down years it’s been Fuhr, Barrasso and Fluery mostly… and which guys won the cup with them? Gretzky, Lemuix, and Crosby..
I should probably add a column for the GPG scored by the cup winning team during the playoffs. I bet we’d see completely opposite trends between GPG and SV% for stanley cup winners.
Get me the numbers, I’ll get you the chart! :-)
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graph me baby.. these are cumulative stats for the whole team for the playoffs for the winners.. so the sv% may differ a little from the first set of data
year, winner gpg,winner sv%
82,4.47,
83,4.70,
84,4.94,.907
85,5.44,.895
86,2.80,.923
87,4.14,.900
88,4.83,.883
89,3.72,.904
90,4.22,.912
91,3.95,.915
92,3.95,.903
93,3.30,.927
94,3.52,.922
95,3.35,.927
96,3.63,.921
97,2.90,.926
98,3.40,.918
99,2.78,.930
00,2.65,.927
01,3.00,.934
09,3.29,9.09
I might have to add in the years between 01 and 09 so we get the salary cap era numbers. I bet the trend of GPG and SV% flip flopping would be more prevalent after the cap since its harder now to balance a good offense and good defense with a limited budget
Here.. toss these numbers in there for the following seasons:
Here.. toss these numbers in there for the following seasons:02,3.13,9.18
03,2.62,9.35
04,2.60,9.32
06,2.92,9.11
07,2.76,9,22
08,3.27,9.23
Here ya go
Charted both separately…
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops. Bad labels.
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Lemmee manipulate it.
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is that the difference between a whole number (5) and a SV% (.9xx) is huge, and you end up with teh ugly chart.
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
well dont really need units on the left side.. just need to see how when one goes up the other goes down.. .. its the patterns that I’m interested in and not the #’s… I might manipulate it tomorrow with photoshop and transparency
buy ya did the work for me :)
OH
Well, I can do THAT. One sec.
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Here
I find it seriously odd that the year that SV% plummeted, so did GA…
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by IRockTheRed on Mar 18, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yea just notice this too.. that’s goals per game… not goals against.
I was trying to compare the winner team’s Goals per game WITH their SV% to see if those years where the winning team had a powerful offense, if they had crappy goaltending.. and visa versa
* When did the goalie mask switch to the cage style? I’m assuming more protection against the neck and face would make a goalie less nervous and would make their save % increase.
A lot of people don’t think about this but up until 1959 goalies didn’t even wear masks. Plante was the first to start wearing one full-time and he went on a very long winning streak while using it. He was asked to remove it for a game, lost, and then never played without it again.
After that, up until 1974, there were still goalies who did not use a mask!
In the early 1970’s the Helmet\Cage combo started getting used (Like Hasek\Osgood use) and that became pretty popular. Before that goalies were still using the large fiberglass 1-pieces.
This is all pretty insane to think about because in the 1950’s the slapshot was invented and there were players that could shoot into the 100’s. So the mask was a huge game changer in allowing goalies the confidence to play down low and go down more regularly without fear of losing their face.
I think a big change from the mid 80s to now is goalies are taken as a more serious position. They have coaches growing up, practices can be conducted like game situations because the gear is good enough to take hundreds of shots without the goaltenders getting worn down.
Previously, a lot of practices were conducted with the goalies taking a good amount of shots but they wouldn’t always be full speed and you’d probably get hacked across the face if you lifted the puck more than 1.5 ft off the ice.
This is a big factor for how the goalies progressed throughout the 80’s because they were kids when this stuff was really changing in a huge way.
The fiberglass mask with cage as you see now didn’t change things as much…it’s very similar to wearing the combo cage that was around since the 70’s.
You have another big change that comes in around 1997 when pads started being constructed for butterfly style (or as an educated person would say, “profly”) This allowed for pads to rotate naturally taking up more space in the net, protecting the goalies knees more, and allowing for a better seal to the ice surface. This was also a time in equipment manufcaturing where pads again got lighter and more protective with better foam construction methods.
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by zephyr on Mar 18, 2010 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I still remember when my roommate who was a goalie got a pair of those pads – his butterfly style went from mediocre to pretty good almost overnight.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Yeah, it takes a lot of the practice and flexibility requirements out of it. It’s still a hard thing to master and to do all the other parts correctly but just getting the pads to rotate and seal well is extremely easy.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Rec’d for some great info.
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by Laich It Or Lump It on Mar 18, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d say part of the change was goalies being trained more seriously, as zephyr said. (Patrick Roy is also a huge reason so many of the best young French-Canadian players are goalies right now.) But I think part of it was also coaching, and definitely part of it was that there were more better players. There were a lot of guys playing in the 80s that probably shouldn’t have been in the league. I’d also look at average shift length. It may be a nightmare to track down, and I’m not going to do it, but I suspect it’s closely related to a drop in scoring.
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by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 18, 2010 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
Good work,
but why are the years from 2001-2008 missing? I’d like to see the post lockout stuff.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Very cool stuff
My turn with a graph:
Big rise in Vezina quality in 88-89, but it took until 92-93 for the league’s goalies to start to catch up. That’s when gpg went off a cliff and average sv% really started to go up.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
Great info...
Rec’d!
I think one thing that hasn’t been brought up yet, is the effect of defense and the transition towards the ‘Clutch and Grab’ or ‘Dead Puck’ era.
Of all these numbers the only one that has been consistent is the # of shots per game
I’d have to argue with this assertion, the chart below shows, to my eye, a precipitous decline in shots per game that match fairly well to the rise of the save percentages.
Defensemen in the mid-to-late 80’s were lumbering pylons compared to the slick skating linebackers back there now. That and the slow transition to the era where, as long as you left him his credit cards when you mugged the forwards there was no call. Seems like that has a lot to do with why the shots per game started dropping and combine that with the rapidly improving (as others in the comments have excellently described) quality of goaltending and you see two pretty ugly trends that continued until the rules changes started to somewhat even the scales.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Mar 22, 2010 2:03 PM EDT reply actions
If you think about it, for the most part, # of shots per game really should have no DIRECT effect on sv% other than tiring the goalie out a bit.. but an average of three shots less per game really shouldn’t be giving the goalies that much more of a brather.
Hypothetically speaking, if a team allows 5 breakaways per game or 10… the goalie should save the same % of those breakaways.
So it’s a common cause between the two, and in this case it’s probably what you mentioned.. the defensemen playing differently. If you start to force people to the corners a bit more it will
a) cause people to take worse shots that are easier for the GT to stop
and
b) cause people to probably want to dump the puck in rather than shoot.
So yea the goalie style probably had a lot to do with it, but you’re right… the defense probably did as well…So really what kind of style defense started taking hold in the mid 90’s to cause the game to change? You’re saying the defensemen just got away with things they really shouldn’t have? D-men must have been using this tactic then to not just take away the shot.. but take away high-quality shots because, like I said, the # of shots per game shouldn’t directly correlate to the sv%.. unless those shots being taken away were the type that had a greater chance of getting through the goalie than most other shots.
Yeah, didn’t think that through too much…
I’ll buy the assessment that it was likely the change in the quality of shots with the better defensemen rather than the quantity. I do think a few less shots will in fact have less of a wear-down factor, but certainly that would only account for a tenths or hundredth of a percentage, certainly not the 2%+ change seen by the graph.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Mar 23, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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