In Lieu of Better Penalty Killing, Better Discipline
by J.P. on Mar 16, 2010 11:30 AM EDT
133 comments
"Maybe we can put some more pressure on them and not let them stand around and make passes." - Joe Corvo on the Capitals' penalty kill
"From what I've seen, we're a little bit more passive here." - Eric Belanger on the same topic
If the Caps have one glaring fatal flaw in their overall game, one would think it's their penalty kill. Currently ranked 25th in the League overall - and 29th on the road - the Caps looked to bolster that aspect of their special teams at the trade deadline by adding Joe Corvo and Eric Belanger. Instead of achieving the desired results so far, the man-down unit has actually dipped since the deadline, successfully squashing just 70% of the disadvantages they've faced.
And while the unit's general passivity would seem to be an obvious eyebrow-raising point of strategic discussion, the team's tactical approach to the penalty kill seems unlikely to change any time soon. Does that mean that the Caps PK will bring an early end to their spring endeavors? Of course not.
Besides the fact that the Caps are other-worldly good at five-on-five and on the power play - and, to date, they've played more than 86% of their total game time at five-aside or a man or two up - they've been increasingly well-disciplined. Since the deadline they've averaged just 2.9 shorthanded situations per game and two or fewer in more than half of those games.
If the penalty kill isn't going to get any better (and is there any reason to believe it will?), this is how the Caps will have to mitigate their biggest weakness - by not taking bad penalties (such as boarding or goaltender interference on breakaways). After all, it worked for the Red Wings last year, who finished the regular season 25th in the League in penalty killing and had the worst kill of any team that advanced past the first round in the playoffs, but still came within a bounce or two of repeating as Cup champs. The Wings faced the second-fewest power plays per game of any of last year's playoff teams, so the fact that they only successfully killed 73.2% of them didn't turn around and kill their playoffs.
Put another way, a team that is shorthanded three times per game over a seven-game series and kills at a 78.4% rate (as the Caps currently have, season-to-date) will give up between four and five power-play goals over the course of that series. A team that is shorthanded five times per game over a seven-game series and kills at an 86.1% rate (as the top teams in the League currently do) will give up... between four and five goals over the course of that series. But once that discipline slips, so to, of course, do the goals against - give the Caps four penalties to kill per game over a seven-game series and you're over six power-play goals allowed (and given their abilities at even strength and five-aside, six power-play goals against in seven games probably still has the Caps in the "safe" zone).
All of this isn't to say that the Caps' poor penalty killing isn't a problem - it most certainly is, quite possibly a critical one. And if the Caps could right the ship just a bit there, they'd be that much more dominant overall. But the fact remains that bad penalty killing is only really as big a problem as bad discipline (and the latter would seem more easily corrected); as long as the Caps can keep the penalties to a minimum, they stand every chance of being able to overcome their Achilles heel and achieve what they've set out to achieve.
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Best of all, the refs have a tendency to swallow their whistles come playoff time anyway.
The holds, hooks, and interferences will have to be quite blatant to earn a call. Doesn’t stop the high-sticks, the slashes, and the trips from forcing the refs into a call, but it gives us even more room to breathe easy.
I’ve looked several times, but can’t find the link to that story either here, on FTR, or BtN about how penalties-per-game in the playoffs is actually a tiny bit higher than in the regular season.
That being said I do think they’re more wary of calling too many and also of calling the weak stuff.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
as long as the Caps can keep the penalties to a minimum, they stand every chance of being able to overcome their Achilles heel and achieve what they've set out to achieve
This is the distant cousin of the argument that I believe in, that shots matter. Goalies are so good (i.e., the save percentages don’t differ all that much) that it’s the shots faced that kills a team (see: Florida and Tomas Vokoun). Here, the number of shorthanded situations faced matter.
One could argue that not all shots are the same, and that not all penalties are the same (some are good, some are bad, and some are Semin). But over time, the number of shots a goalie faces and the number of shorthanded situations a team will face will matter. Fewer = better.
If you've read this far...seek help.
While it’s true that taking fewer penalties will result in, hopefully, fewer PKGA, the system is so woeful that other teams don’t need much time or many different chances to do damage. Even with this team taking only 3 penalties/game, I could see other teams doing plenty with that. This is not a team that is ever going to take less than that on average.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
At 3 times shorthanded a game, though, the Caps are giving up a PP goal once every other game or so, on average (assuming they stay at around 78.5% effective on the kill). They probably score enough to overcome that sort of differential. I hope.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
They can and do in the regular season, but in the playoffs…
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps score against everyone, though. It’ll be harder in the postseason, but I would bet the guys can get it done.
by David M. Getz on Mar 16, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I’m assuming we’d all rather not have to wonder, though, right? Wouldn’t we rather just see adjustments for the better? Or do you guys think we can make do with what we have as long as we score bucketfuls of goals?
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
In my opinion, yes and yes. Obviously I’d like them to be better, and there’s no reason a team with this much skill should be so mediocre on the penalty kill, but it doesn’t scare me too much as long as they can stay out of the box.
Also, I really, really don’t want to think this team has an Achilles Heel.
by David M. Getz on Mar 16, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty confident that if the Caps can outscore their opponents in each game in the playoffs, they’ll be in good shape.
Obviously, you’d like to see every facet of their game improve, especially those with the most room for improvement. But I’m not sure that the PK struggles aren’t a little exaggerated in terms of their likelihood to sink the S.S. Capitals.
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Depends on the opponent and how well their PP strengths match up with Caps PK weaknesses. A team with a lethal PP like SJ could make the PK the issue why the Caps lose a Cup.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Agreed. But SJS’s PP could excuse most teams from the playoffs, which circles back to… discipline and limiting the number of TS (times shorthanded).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Totally agree with your premise. It’s best to limit chances, heck even if the PK was decent given how the Caps destroy teams 5-5 you’d want to limit chances. Problem is you’ll never be able to negate all of them. In a series against an elite foe all it takes is one small thing to lose it. I’m afraid PK is going to be that thing.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
I think that if PK is going to lose it for the Caps, there are other problems at hand. The team is good enough offensively and solid enough in net that 6% on the PK shouldn’t make a big deal.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, he also said:
I’m pretty confident that if the Caps can outscore their opponents in each game in the playoffs, they’ll be in good shape.
I mean, obviously :-P. I’m just not sure they do if their PK is so suspect that they let in more than they should, especially against a team like SJ or CHI that will be drawing a lot of penalties.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m perfectly confident that the Caps will be the highest scoring team in the playoffs – they have so many different ways to get pucks in the net, that it’s just about impossible to shut them down totally. It’s not just AO and a bunch of Munchkins, even more so than last year.
Even the best teams kill at only 85% or so, which is a PP goal every 2+ games, versus a PP+ goal every 2 games…not such a huge difference.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I’m unfortunately confident of the possibility of them giving up the most goals, too.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps are ahead of Pitt, Nash and Ott in that category for the regular season, though?
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I see the numbers and am tempted by your newsletter, but they’ve still given up nearly 200 goals, already, which is not insignificant.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
To me – and at the risk of veering off topic – the biggest question is if the Caps come out flat when the chips are down. They score a lot, they give up a substantial but smaller amount, at least to date.
When they’re engaged, poised and working hard, they’re simply better than the other teams. We know they’ve come out flat before, though.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
To keep it on topic, I think that if they come out flat, that’s when they get in penalty trouble and the bad PK becomes a bigger issue than it otherwise might be.
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Agreed, when they are moving their feet they are drawing penalties, not taking them
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → b a (select) start
Couldn’t agree more.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
If you look at the difference in G/G versus GA/G then the Caps are way ahead of anyone else. On average the Caps score over a goal more than they allow
1. WSH – 1.09
2. SJS – 0.77
3. CHI – 0.76
4. VAN – 0.75
5. COL – 0.37
…
10. PIT – 0.20
I’ve posted this in other threads, but its worth repeating, its been 4 years since a team finished a season with that value above 1.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
i think the whole “playoffs are different” this is a bit overrated. During the rangers series last year, we kept hearing how the caps “weren’t playing playoff hockey,” but i thought the truth was that they just weren’t playing good hockey.
Sure the game is faster, and the hitting is harder due to the intensity and the atmosphere, but in terms of the systems teams use and the way they play, its really just about continunig to execute, even better than during the regular season.
if the caps play their style of hockey well they can certainly score and win in the postseason.
Midwest caps fan living vicariously through blogs.
I see where you are going and certainly its important to do what you do systems wise. However, it is different. As you mentioned the intensity is ramped up a notch. More importantly you are playing quality competition every night, so mistakes are amplified. There are no games against the Oilers. Playoffs are not only a physical grind, but also a mental one. Not that the regular season isn’t, it’s just in a different way.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
.
Somewhat further to that point, Mirtle took a look at the numbers (over a year old, but no reason that I can see to think that they’re not still valid, and found that PK% isn’t terribly highly correlated to winning. More closely correlated? Points percentage (duh), goals per game, 5-on-5 ratio, PP% and shots per game, among other things (see below). Point being, there’s a reason the Caps have won most of their games this year, despite a horrid PK.
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by J.P. on Mar 16, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
(In retrospect, that data would’ve fit nicely in the post.)
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by Scott in Shaw on Mar 16, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve looked but failed to find the correlation between shot differential and winning. I have to believe it’s pretty strong, and perhaps even stronger than S/G.
Nice to see that G/G and 5-5 F/A is so high up there. If only the numbers on teh Y axis weren’t so small – when I get far enough away from my monitor that they’re clear, they’re too small to read.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
On BtN they’ve done stuff with shot differential…but I don’t know if that really makes a difference. CHI is great of course, but COL for example is horrible.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Saw the article from today – was looking for something that specifrically correlates shot differential to win (or points) pct.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
there are also games like the first philly game last year where we out shot them 2-1 and lost 8-2. It’s not just the quantity of shots that count but the quality of shots. Taking bombs from the point with no support down low (or no support period) will get you shots that are easy for any goalie to stop and not allow you to maintain possession in the zone. If most of your shots are of that quality, they’re not a factor into your winning and can actually work against you due to a frustration factor.
Suspend Colin Campbell!
There are outliers in any data sample. But over time, if you shoot more than you get shot at, you’re going to win a lot more than you lose.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
You can’t make an assumption from just one game. There are always those games where you throw 45 against a guy and he pitches a shutout. You just have to tip your hat and hope more go in the next game.
Over a full season, though, you’ll see things even out.
It’s just an observation, not quantitative that last year when the caps were frantic, they took gobs of low percentage shots that didn’t turn into second chances for us. I think we’ve gotten better this season and have actually forced other teams into situations like that…I think we won 2 or 3 of the games in the streak while getting badly outshot.
I guess my thought is that shot differential is more of a correlation rather than a causation of a goal/win.
Suspend Colin Campbell!
They outshot the Rangers in every game in last season’s playoffs and were outshot by the Pens every game in that series.
While that wasn’t the only reason they won/lost each series, it was significant (IMO).
Or maybe they outshot the Rangers because they were the better team and PIT outshot the Caps because PIT was the better team. I think it’s a symptom more than anything else.
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by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
and is there any reason to believe it will?
Nope.
This is the one thing I’m seriously sweating heading into the playoffs. I’m hoping you’re right, in that the newly-found discipline can become a habit. I’m fearful that it might be a blip. Corvo helps here, though. He just doesn’t take a lot of penalties. Substituting his minutes for Erskine’s minutes is a step in the right direction.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Hopefully some of the new guys help fix the system. BB’s system for everything is different than everyone elses. Great for 5v5 and 5v4, but obviously not working for 4v5.
I agree totally about the stupidity of the average person. Horrifyingly, nearly 50% of people are even stupider!
Corvo and Belanger are speed upgrades, but we already had Semin, Brads, Gordon, and Green as fast guys, and it didn’t make much difference. The system is flawed, IMHO.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that the PK system is flawed. I was hoping that the new guys would help fix that by saying “Why not try this coach” one random afternoon.
I agree totally about the stupidity of the average person. Horrifyingly, nearly 50% of people are even stupider!
PK by the tens…
1st 10: 41/49 (83.7)
2nd 10: 24/34 (70.6)
3rd 10: 28/34 (82.4)
4th 10: 27/33 (81.8)
5th 10: 36/46 (78.3)
6th 10: 36/45 (80.0)
7th 10 (through nine games): 19/28 (67.9)
Total: 211/269 (78.4)
There appears no obvious relationship between PK events and PK efficiency — they’ve been good or bad facing a little or a lot (of course, this takes no consideration of opponent’s strength or weakness, either).
If you've read this far...seek help.
Adding times SH/game...
1st 10: 41/49 (83.7) Times SH/Game: 4.9
2nd 10: 24/34 (70.6) 3.4
3rd 10: 28/34 (82.4) 3.4
4th 10: 27/33 (81.8) 3.3
5th 10: 36/46 (78.3) 4.6
6th 10: 36/45 (80.0) 4.5
7th 10 (through nine games): 19/28 (67.9) 3.11
Mean value is 3.88. This does not inspire confidence that they’ll keep their times shorthanded to 3 or fewer in the playoffs, to tell you the truth.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
If you still have the data with you, what’s the median?
by David M. Getz on Mar 16, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Median would be 3.4, right? 3.11, 3.3, 3.4, 3.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.9 is the series.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Oh, I meant of all games, rather than the ten-block values. Should have been clearer.
by David M. Getz on Mar 16, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, sorry. We’ll have to see if Peerless still has his data, then.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
But 3.88 times per game times seven games * 78.4% kill = 5.88 PK goals against. Are we honestly worried that the Caps can’t outscore their opposition at even strength and on their own PP by six goals in a seven-game series?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I had that fleeting thought, just as I posted – really, that you addressed this in the post when you noted (paraphrasing) that even 5-6 PP GA is not out of the safe zone.
I think you’re right – they probably can outscore by 6 in the scenario you outline. That makes the final series outcome more of a crapshoot than I’d like, but at some point a series with two good teams will come down to breaks and bounces.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
As long as they don’t give up tons of shorties…
I like the suddenly-low 3.11 in the last nine. Hope that continues. Honestly, with the deadline correlating nicely with that, I think it will.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I can but the correlation with the deadline.
Substituting Corvo for Erskine is the equivalent of almost one fewer penalty/60. Depending on who Belanger relegates to the bench, you either have a slight upgrade (Gordon) or downgrade (Steckel).
More nebulously, though, you have more fresh legs on the ice, which I think tends to hold down penalties.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I’m afraid those numbers skew when you put them up against Pit/SJS/CHI/etc. Those teams are good at drawing penalties, and at that success percentage, that’s a little under 2 PPGs a game if they take 5-6 penalties.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
For the Caps to give up 2 PPGAs per game, they’d have to be shorthanded 8 times per game and killing at just 75% or shorthanded 6 times per game and killing at 67%. The latter is far more likely in your hypo (even though PIT has a bottom-third PP to date), and I think that in those cases, the teams you’re even more worried about are MTL and PHI – both have better PPs than SJ or CHI.
Again, this all circles back to the need to be better disciplined given that they can’t seem to kill penalties at even an average rate.
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But your absolutely right that, in general, opposing PPs, PKs and 5-on-5 play will be better in the playoffs, so the “safe” zone isn’t quite as large as it is in the regular season.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Well home ice is important when looking at this issue for the Caps. The Caps PK numbers at home (recent homestand notwithstanding) have been rather good. It is on the road that the PK has been very problematic.
So yes, better discipline will work wonders (keeps the PK off the ice) but playing more games at home than on the road will be vital as well.
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This is good stuff J.P. thanks.
I would still like them to be better at the PK anyway just because they are so good at everything else and definitely have the personnel to have a good PK.
If you give me an option though, I’d rather see them taking the more proactive approach of not putting themselves into a bad situation then to be really good at digging out of holes. (This statement also works for their 3rd period comeback ability =)
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
What worries me is the odd man breaks we give up 5 on 5 every game. If our PK stays this awful (which it probably will) then that is where we will get screwed. Once we play experienced teams like NJ or PITT in the playoffs they will tear us apart. We saw it against Pittsburgh in game 7, they scored on 2 or 3 odd man breaks and buried us, they didn’t even need the PP.
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 12:23 PM EDT reply actions
The Caps have been the League’s best team at 5-on-5 this season, and by a country mile. There’s no reason to think that’ll change, IMO.
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I agree with that, but I’ve watched nearly every game this season and it seems like Jose and Varly are the only reasons we don’t give up more GA on the 5 on 5. It’s to the point where I expect an odd man break every game, the only difference is, can Jose finally overcome the pressure of the post season?
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
They do give up odd man rushes against. When you forecheck hard with all three forwards, and ask the D to be ready to jump up into the play, you’re going to give up some chances the other way. That’s no big deal, given the furious rate the Caps score at.
I could really live without the breakaways and odd man rushes on the PP, but that’s another story.
If the entire playoffs were played at ES, the Caps would be the complete odds-on favorite to win it. This little discussion has me feeling better about the PK already.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
The breakaways are just the result of the high pressure system the Caps operate. Our defenders are generally good on the breakaway and our forwards tend to be able to get back quick to stop any errant rebounds.
President and sole member of the Erskine lobby.
now this I understand, our style of offense will give up breakaways no doubt, my only worry is if those breakaways/odd man breaks are given up against crosby/malkin or kovalchuk. I guess though discipline and PK are important, it really comes down to the Goalie
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really – it really comes down to whether the number of goals you score as a result of your high-pressure offense is greater than the number you allow as a result of it. So far this year, that’s been the case, and rather comfortably.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
right (so far), I think this squad will fair well in the playoffs, the’ve got the right mix of experience and skill, i don’t see why they wouldn’t be the favorites despite their PK problems.
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That number is just nutz. I’m glad it’s ours.
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
I think the point was that some teams are more opportunistic somehow than others. Whereas now the Caps can get away with the odd-man breaks and still come out net positive with the offensive results, in the playoffs, opportunistic teams may make that negative (all they need is to score once more per game on the rush and suddenly the 5-on-5 is about even).
I don’t agree, but I think that’s what Chaz-Capapalooza was saying.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
whats even more impressive are our numbers throughout the course of the game 1st-78 2nd-86 3rd-97 Home Goals-133 Road Goals-133 So while we are giving up more goals on the road, we are still scoring like crazy
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I also think the Caps’ ability to draw penalties, in theory anyway, ought to go up as a series progresses. When they’re playing hard, they will wear an opponent down; it’s hard work keeping up with them, especially when the third and fourth lines are grinding the cycle and the other two lines are roaring down on you with guns blazing.
Over seven games, I think/hope that they ought to get more of the HHT, obstruction and interference penalties – kind of like the Chicago game writ large.
No empirical data out there to support this, so this is kind of a useless avenue to explore, but I do think there’s something to it.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I wonder though if those extra HHT penalties other teams take to slow down DC will result in less 5on5 GF though. Caps don’t want to make it a special teams battle since their dominance comes from ES (and not 4on4 at that, Backstrom’s goal notwithstanding)
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Capitals Coming: for Capitals fans no more intelligent than myself
by red army line on Mar 16, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
We’ll have to see how the stripes are calling it, but my impression the last couple of years is that they have allowed pretty significant penalty disparities to exist, at least within a single game.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I'd love to be thinking positive here...
but weren’t the Caps “out-powerplayed” in that series against Pittsburgh last year something like 17-7? That’s a mind boggling differential over a 7 game series, and no way could a number like that be solely attributed to poor disciple, could it?
37-19. Apparently feeling dyslexic this afternoon
by Hangsleben's Heroes on Mar 16, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That was due to getting dominated. The Caps took penalities because they couldn’t keep up with the Pens. The only reason that series went 7 was because Varly was unconcious for the start of the series.
we're not gonna allow someone like Downie to go after him.
I was more amazed that one NHL team could average so few penalties over the course of a 7 game series against another NHL team.
The Caps didn’t do enough of what it takes to draw penalties, IMO. I don’t think the officiating was that one-sided at all, to be honest.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Hard to draw penalties when you spend 50 minutes a game pinned to the boards below your goal line, eh?
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
History
I don’t disagree with the analysis re: expected number of power play goals against based on penalties/game and PK rate. However, only 2 of the last 20 Cup winners had regular season PK’s under 80 percent, the Pens in 92 and 93.
by Hangsleben's Heroes on Mar 16, 2010 1:13 PM EDT reply actions
that’s not a good sign
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
…and of course Pens of 92-93 had a 17-win streak…would our 14-win streak help here?.. but agree, we better push our PK above 80%
I should have said 91 and 92 Pens. 30 lashes to myself for giving them a Cup they didn’t win in 93.
by Hangsleben's Heroes on Mar 16, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh… what was the League average in each of those years? “80%” is a pretty arbitrary number – I’d be more interested in seeing, say, number of Cup winners who finished in the bottom half in PKing or such.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I agree that relative ranking and percentage together is a better measure. Just takes a bit more effort to find the rankings.
League average was 80.5 one of those years and 80.8 the other.
by Hangsleben's Heroes on Mar 16, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Found This On Pens Blog
9-9 in OT/SO. 7-8 in one-goal regulation games.
Very interesting. Not the record you’d expect.
And then add in this stat, which isn’t available in those tables above.
— Caps are 11-0 in two-goal games. (only undefeated team in the league, let alone the East.)
And they are 19-6 in three-goal-or-more games, tops in the East. ( Buffalo is next at 11-7.)
30 of the Caps 46 wins have been comfortable wins (by 2 goals or 3-or-more goals).
That’s 65%, essentially two-thirds.
Statistically speaking, are the Caps the horse to take when the action gets tighter in the playoffs?
Just saying.
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:18 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, the Caps are a bad bet because they’ve been so good this season. Um, what?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
haha, yeah i know, it seems like they’re looking for ways to make the pens seem a lot better than they actually are this year, given the’ve won the majority of their 1-goal-games
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Did they leave out all the gimmic wins they have? Have they lost a shoot out yet?
Suspend Colin Campbell!
Yep, they lost one, and that’s cause Crosby missed
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It was against Nashville too………………….
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitt is 7-1 in the shootout.
Wow, the Pens are 7-2 on the road in OT/SO games, but only 4-3 at home. Caps are 4-5 on the road, 5-4 at home.
Separating out the OT/SO wins, the Caps are 37 reg wins, 14 reg losses, 9 OT/SO wins, 9 OT/SO losses. The Pens are 30 reg wins, 23 reg losses, 11 OT/SO wins, 5 OT/SO losses.
So what does this all mean? The Caps probably don’t want to take it to OT and def not the SO against the Pens.
haha, yeah, and semin has developed into quite the academy award winning actor, if he can sell some penalties in OT I don’t mind playing them again :)
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Mar 16, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The shootout is also known as “luck”. Pitt is 7-1 in the gimmick – very flukey. The Caps are a reasonable 4-4.
One goal games are another flukey stat – I believe they don’t correlate with anything in particular, if I remember correctly.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Crosby does amazingly in the SO, I haven’t watched all of his shots but he’s got great control and is very patient. The last one I saw it looked like the goalie was frozen out of intimidation before he even touched the puck. Basically I’m not so sure it’s all luck, but since it is a gimmick, how much of a point is there to being good at it?
Suspend Colin Campbell!
I do think that the Caps can overcome the PK as a weakness, but its frustrating that a team that is so good overall has such a glaring weakness. The Caps seem to give up PP goals in bunches (TB, DAL) and that could be lethal in a 7 game series.
we're not gonna allow someone like Downie to go after him.
Is it safe to come back in here and talk hockey?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 16, 2010 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Don’t know what this is in reference to, but I’m rec’ing it.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Oh God. Now I see.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
by D'ohboy on Mar 16, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah. The suspension thing is boring as hell now.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
It was boring halfway through yesterday’s thread.
At this point, the arguments have become a little like Americans abroad talking to non-English speakers:
“IF. . .I . . . TALK. . . REALLY. . . SLOW. . . AND . . . LOUD . . . AND . . . REPEAT. . . MYSELF. . .”
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
And in the time since I posted my comment, above, we have one new comment here (yours) and 159 in the AO suspension thread.
Gah.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Yeah, I’m done. I’m sorry for wasting so much valuable space in there.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 16, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, 158 of them were from Jared…
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Which one is that?
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Excellent Work
I think my initial response would be that we ought to track the deviation between teams’ penalties taken/60 in the regular season versus the playoffs, then do the same thing for PK%. The idea would be to attempt to discern if teams are more likely to be able to be more disciplined, or more likely to improve their PK.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
That’s a good question. Guys don’t want to hurt their team, so they tend to play more disciplined, tighter checking hockey. More disciplined results in less penalties, but tighter checking inherently involves more opportunities for penalized hits.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 16, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if there’s a breakdown on penalty types easily accessible. Guessing the Caps get 2:1 stick : discipline penalties.
President and sole member of the Erskine lobby.
I’m pretty sure there’s a site that breaks out HHT (Hooking, hold and tripping) penalties. Unfortunately, slashing doesn’t fall into that, but I’m pretty sure that the most egregious violator (Sasha) is mostly covered by hooking.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Any idea what that site might be?
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 16, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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